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Colin Phillips

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At the risk of annoying Hamm:D:

POSTED ON JULY 11, 2011

TIMEPIECE MUST GO FOR BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

Before her win in last week's Falmouth Stakes I'd never really understood TIMEPIECE (40). Some days she runs like a champion but on other occasions she looks little better than a class 3 handicapper.

However on seeing her produce that tremendous burst off a slow early pace in the Falmouth Stakes an obvious explanation occurred to me.

Timepiece is a big, strong, rangy filly that's too heavy shouldered to act well on courses with steep downhill sections. She also has to be hard to get fit at home given her size.

Look at her form with this in mind and it's easy to understand why Timepiece has shifted her ground and run below form at Epsom and Lingfield and been beaten every time she's come into a race off a lengthy break. However she has won all six times she's run outside of steeply downhill courses off breaks less than four months.

The kind of acceleration Timepiece showed at Newmarket is exactly what wins turf races in America. Her ability to handle the tight turns at Warwick and around Lingfield's Polytrack is also a big plus with the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf in mind.

I know that Midday, who is in the same ownership, is likely to start favourite for the big American race. But she had some trouble with the very tight course and sprint finish at Churchill last year and I'm inclined to think that Timepiece will handle it better.

Globetrotter SAHPRESA (39) has a terrific finishing kick but couldn't make enough inroads on the advantage Timepiece gained due to the terrific sprint her rival sustained to the line. She has a terrific record at Newmarket and Longchamp but has shown remarkably consistent form around the world on a wide variety of tracks and surfaces. She's always going to be a serious threat in any race against her own sex.



SEARCHING PACE MADE THE RACE FOR CRYSTAL CAPELLA

The Princess Of Wales's Stakes looked set to be a close run contest on paper. But, thanks to the field going too fast early they ended up being separated by huge margins.

As is often the case in this sort of situation it was a misleading official going report that probably caused the jockeys on the front runners to go too fast early. They could have lasted home if the ground had been good as the official report indicated. But it was yielding judged by race times.

In the circumstances it was no big surprise that the winner was CRYSTAL CAPELLA (40) who had been held up in second last place off the scorching pace. She came through, still traveling strongly to lead over two furlongs out and pulled well clear. She was grinding to a halt herself in the last half furlong but her rivals had slowed up a good deal earlier, hence the huge margins.

Crystal Capella clearly has loads of stamina but not much pace. When there's cut in the ground or the early gallop has been strong she's tough to beat. In sprint finishes on fast ground she's clearly out of her element.

Clearly the big objective now is to try and win a Group 1 with Crystal Capella. I'm not sure the Yorkshire Oaks is a great option as the ground is so often fast for that race and the pace slow. Her best shot at the top level I would have thought would be in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club as that race is invariably run on soft ground. The other decent option I can see would be to jump her up in distance to tackle the Irish St Leger or prix Royal Oak.

Due to the over-fast pace, the lengths between the runners were about four times as great as they should have been, and I've decided to base my ratings on that idea. This means that runner up REDWOOD (39) wasn't that far off his best on his first run of the season.

Redwood is an admirably consistent horse that had placed in three of the world's most valuable races on his latest three outings. He's remarkably versatile as to going, pace and track layout and will be a threat in any race he contests for the rest of the season. No doubt he'll be chasing the big international prizes once more.

AFSARE (37) didn't get home due to the way the race was run. In a more normally run contest he'd split two Group 1 winners over the same distance on his previous start, so I don't think he really needs to go back in trip.





DICK TURPIN TOUGH TO BEAT ON STIFF TRACKS

I'm steadily getting more annoyed at the misleading information British tracks are giving out about rail movements. Last Saturday at Ascot for example rail movements supposedly added about 20 yards to ten furlong races and 10 yards to races over a mile. If we believe this then the winner of the 0-90 handicap over ten furlongs ran at the same rate per furlong as Dick Turpin did when winning the Group 2 totesport.com Summer Mile. In fact Dick Turpin ran the last 7.2 furlongs from the point the mile course joins the ten furlong course 4.3 seconds faster. Clearly the official rail movement information was wrong by a huge margin.


DICK TURPIN (41) ran two seconds faster than the other mile race on the card and clearly put up a smart performance. I liked the way he powered through to win and was still traveling strongly crossing the line.

The trouble with Dick Turpin is that he's a big, rather muscle-bound horse that doesn't have much in the way of acceleration. You could argue, as I have in the past, that this is why he's won all seven times he's run below Group 1 class but taken just the single race in ten tries at the top level.

Now however I'm inclined to think that Dick Turpin is capable of winning another Group 1 race as long as it's run on a stiff track. After all he scored his Group 1 win at Chantilly, a track that rises ten metres in the last three furlongs. And he's won four of the five times he's run on tracks the Racing Post describe as testing - his sole loss being that smart one length second to Canford Cliffs at Royal Ascot.

On a track with an uphill finish to offset his lack of acceleration I can see Dick Turpin winning again at the top level. Unfortunately there only seems to be a single opportunity left open to him on such a track this season and that's the QEII back at Ascot in October.

I can see the temptation of going back up beyond a mile with Dick Turpin seeing that he's so strong and stays on so well. But he's now failed to last home twice in longer races. So I don't think the idea of him shooting for the Irish Champion Stakes or the Champion Stakes at Ascot is such a great idea. Though I have to add that if he were mine and I planned on keeping him in training next year I'd be inclined to gamble on the stiff uphill finish helping him produce his best in the Ascot contest.

Runner up FANANALTER (40) came through to challenge Dick Turpin but couldn't quite go with him in the run to the line. He seems best around a turn and with a break of at least five weeks between his runs. To date he's won run finished second by less than a length nine of the ten times he's met these circumstances.



ALBAASIL IS GROUP CLASS

ALBAASIL (39) showed smart acceleration to clock a fast time when winning a good mile handicap at Newmarket. His jockey was understandably keen to find cover in the early stages because Albaasil had pulled hard on his previous two starts. This meant he had to manouver a little to find a clear run two furlongs out. But once in the clear the race was all over as Albaasil was clearly moving much better than anything else and blasted clear despite running a little green.

Judged by his physique and stride pattern, a mile and fast ground seem right for Albaasil, though I think it's possible he might get nine or ten furlongs.

Gaining more experience surely has to be the main objective for Albaasil right now, even if that means running him in unsuitable circumstances. One he's learned to run a bit more professionally I can see him winning very good races. He looks just the sort of horse that trainer Sir Michael Stoute has done so well with at ages four and five after a late career start.





GREEN DESTINY SHOULD SWITCH TO GROUP COMPANY

GREEN DESTINY (41) clocked a seriously good Group 2 class time to win the John Smith's Cup at York. He picked up remarkably well to pass most of the field in the final three furlongs and win full of running.

There does remain a question of whether or not Green Destiny needs a really long homestraight to unwind his finishing run. So far he's won all four time's he's run on tracks with homestraights of half a mile or more and run seventh the two times he hasn't.

If he were mine I wouldn't be inclined to cut Green Destiny back two and a half furlongs in distance for the totesport Mile at Goodwood. I reckon he'll get a mile and a half and that a mile will prove on the short side for him in good company.

I would also favour the idea of switching Green Destiny to Group company rather than asking him to lug huge weights in handicaps. I recognise that there's big money to be won in handicaps and that Green Destiny is a gelding so there's no point trying to enhance his stud value with a few black type wins. It's just that a horse that comes from as far back as he does risks running into traffic problems in the big fields that line up in valuable handicaps. Indeed, this is exactly what happened to Green Destiny on his previous start at Royal Ascot.



CAPTAIN BERTIE GETS INTERESTING AGAIN

CAPTAIN BERTIE (34) clocked a Group class time when running the useful Tazahum to three quarters of a length at Sandown on his seasonal debut. And he looked on his way to running another big race when coming with a promising run down the stands rail approaching the final furlong in a good handicap at York last Saturday. Unfortunately a horse then moved in front of him, blocking his passage and costing him momentum. His jockey decided to call it a day and dropped his hands an only rode him out hands and heels when a gap finally appeared in the closing stages.

It seems to me that Captain Bertie would have gone close with a clear run and is likely to run a big race in the very near future. I don't know if he'll make the cut in the totesport Mile but he'd be an interesting candidate there or in any other race he tackles in the next few weeks.



ROMAN SOLDIER RUNS BELOW HIS BEST

ROMAN SOLDIER (34) earned a Group 1 speed rating from me when a neck second to Power in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. But he didn't look the same horse when beaten a length by the admittedly useful Frederick Engels in the July Stakes last week. His stride went to pieces and he hung in the closing stages.

There are three possible explanations. The first is that Roman Soldier did not like the ground which was good to yielding judged by race times. The second is that he hadn't recovered from his tough race at Royal Ascot. The third is that he needs a stiffer test of stamina.

If he were mine I wouldn't gamble on guessing at the right answer. I'd lay Roman Soldier off and bring him back on faster ground over seven furlongs.
 
..............and there's more:

BLUE BUNTING SHOULD BE LEGER FAVOURITE

I've not been that enthusiastic about BLUE BUNTING (39) in the past. But I'm beginning to realise that this is because she doesn't look or run like I've grown to expect top class horses to. Basically she's a throwback to old time racehorses in that she has almost no Northern Dancer blood in her pedigree at all. You have to go back six generations to find the single mention of Northern Dancer.

Without this primary modern influence for speed, it's not surprising that Blue Bunting exhibits the kind of stamina normally only associated with German thoroughbreds nowadays. She therefore distributes her energy in a race in a way that we're not used to seeing - moving much more strongly, relative to her rivals, at the end of the race rather than the beginning.

This was certainly the case in the Yorkshire Oaks where it was rather odd to see Blue Bunting picking up strongly and still being full of run as her main challengers strides became stilted through tiredness in the final furlong. She produced her best effort yet on my ratings.

The longer distance of the St Leger will suit Blue Bunting admirably. And it's worth noting that fillies that have previously won a Group 1 over a mile and a half have an amazingly good record in the Leger. I need to check the stats in detail (do so, but it looks like they've won something like half the time.

With the 3YO fillies looking stronger than the colts over longer trips this year it would surely be a mistake to run Blue Bunting in the Prix Vermeille. The St Leger looks a much softer target. In fact I see her as the one they all have to beat at Doncaster and feel she should be favourite.

If one photo had gone her way and her saddle hadn't slipped in the Lancashire Oaks, runner up VITA NOVA (38) would have won all five of her previous outings. Her stride shortened in the closing stages as she begun to get the worst of the duel with a winner that sustained her effort like the Energizer Bunny. So it looks like a mile and a half is her limit. This suggests trainer Sir Henry Cecil is right to target her at what used to be called the Pride Stakes over that trip on Champions' Day at Ascot rather than shooting for the Park Hill Stakes.

Vita Nova is a big tall filly that hits the ground hard. Clearly she's best with a bit of cut in the ground.

Third placed WONDER OF WONDERS (36) looked a big player and moved well three furlongs out when going into the lead. But her head came up before the furlong pole and she looked uncomfortable. Soon after her head jerked up sharply for a stride and she lost her balance, dropping back further.

It seems to me that Wonder Of Wonders is a female version of Campanologist. He runs exactly like this on tracks with long homestraights like York but has shown smart form elsewhere.

On tracks with homestraights less than half a mile Wonder Of Wonders has won two times from four and gone under by less than a length in Group 1 company in both her losses. She's won the two times she's run around tracks ten furlongs or less in circumference. I'd say this makes her a smart candidate for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.





SEA MOON LOOKS LIKELY TO 'BOUNCE' OFF VOLTIGEUR WIN IF HE GOES FOR LEGER

Last year, after Rewilding, had won the Great Voltigeur in seriously fast time, I suggested he wouldn't recover in time to produce his best in the St Leger.

This year I must issue the same warning about SEA MOON (40) following his success in the Great Voltigeur.

The Coolmore pacemaker Regent Street did his job rather too well. He set a tremendous gallop and though his rivals let him go quite a way clear the clock suggests they still stuck too close to him. As a result everything, even the winner Sea Moon, was stopping approaching the final furlong.

As Sea Moon tired he started rolling to his left and bumped third placed Seville. He was kicked clear soon after but continued to roll left and tired further. He expanded his winning margin quite rapidly because his rivals were grinding to a halt even faster. but he himself slowed to a walk five strides after the finish.

It will surely take Sea Moon quite some time to recover from this taxing effort. The 24 days left to the St Leger won't be enough for that in my opinion. So I was not surprised to hear his connections start talking about the Arc a few days after his big win. The Arc is run three weeks after the Leger and would give him more time to recover.

Right now the Stoute camp seem to be suggesting that Sea Moon will run in both the Leger AND the Arc. They must know that no Leger winner has ever gone on to take the Arc the same year. Even Nijinsky failed to pull off the double. They must also know that by running Sea Moon in the Leger they will torpedo his stud value.

With two such powerful disincentives to bypass the Leger I am awaiting the entries for the Prix Niel with some interest. They're published on Wednesday. If Sea Moon's name appears among them it will be a sure sign his connections are seriously thinking about sidestepping the St Leger.

The other two big concerns this run raises in connection with a potential St Leger bid for Sea Moon are stamina and experience.

In terms of stamina I didn't like the way Sea Moon was tiring in the closing stages even taking account of the extraordinarily fast early pace. When Crystal Capella won off a similarly lopsidedly fast early pace last month she was able to finish a fair bit quicker than Sea Moon did.

It's also worth noting that Sea Moon's first two runs were over a mile and his third over ten furlongs. This was his fourth run and his first over a longer distance. Would he stay the St Leger distance if he lined up at Doncaster? I have serious doubts about it.

The stats show that these days a viable St Leger candidate cannot be run beyond a mile and a half before the big race because this will torpedo its stud value, thanks to the bloodstock market's prejudice against staying sires that's developed over the last couple of decades.

However a horse still needs to be conditioned through racing to run the St Leger distance. This. I'm convinced, is why every St Leger winner from 1990 made their two starts immediately before the big race over a mile and a half. The 103 St Leger runners that failed to do so in this period all lost.

As for experience, I hate the idea of betting a St Leger runner that's only had the two outings all season - especially when he's shown clear signs of greenness by shifting his ground in the prep for the big race.

Finally I should note that when the early pace is unsustainably fast, as it was here, the lengths between the runners at the finish become amplified. So I would take the huge handicap ratings some have awarded Sea Moon for this run with a pinch of salt. They are based on the assumption that he would still have won by eight lengths if Regent Street hadn't taken the field along at such a crazy pace.

Don't get me wrong, this was a good performance, one of the best we've seen from a three year old colt beyond a mile this season. The trouble is the middle distance three year old colts are below average this season, so that's not really saying very much.

My best guess is that the beaten lengths were amplified by a factor of between three and four due to the field tiring so badly in the closing stages. If this is right then runner up AL KAZEEM (38) equalled his previous best despite the fact he needed the run and would have preferred faster ground according to his trainer.

Al Kazeem is a really classy looking sort that showed serious pace when winning his previous start. He's lightly raced and has long struck me as a horse with the potential to develop into a Group 1 performer. I like the fact that he’s raced more professionally with each successive run. My suspicion is that this run will have brought him on because although he was ridden vigorously, it seemed to me he was only pushed hard enough to ensure he took second place. If he gets faster ground for the Arc Trial at Newbury I'd be wary of opposing him.

The one horse that figured to be suited by a searching gallop was third placed SEVILLE (37) because he's rather one-paced. But instead the strong pace seemed to expose a lack of stamina on his part. The way he tired suggests that a mile and a half is his absolute limit - especially on a big galloping course with such a long homestraight.



GREEN DESTINY SHOULD GO UP IN DISTANCE

GREEN DESTINY (41) earned a borderline Group 1 speed rating from me for the second time this season when taking the Group 3 Strensall Stakes over nine furlongs at York. He showed a good turn of foot to come through and take the lead and then kept on well to hold the rally runner up.

The nine furlong distance looked to be the absolute minimum for Green destiny by the way he was running. This is not surprising. His sire and dam all stayed twelve furlongs as did his three winning siblings.

St present Green Destiny looks to be a horse that needs a galloping track with a long homestraight to produce his best form. On tighter courses or those with shorter homestraights he tends not to have enough time to extricate himself from the traffic problems his ultra late running style involves him in. However over a mile and a half things wouldn't be happening so fast for him and he'd be more manouverable.

If he were mine the race I'd be thinking about as his end of season target would be the Premio Roma. It's only a mile and a quarter but it's on a dead flat galloping course with a long homestraight. More importantly the ground is virtually always soft, and soft ground amplifies the lengths between runners, reducing traffic problems.

I believe in getting a horse used to distance increases gradually. So, seeing that six of his eight starts have been over eight or nine furlongs, I'd be inclined to step him up to ten furlongs now and hold off on going a mile and a half till next season.

Second Placed TAZAHUM (40) made the running till headed by a horse that took the inside route as he swung wide with the others into the straight. He picked up again in good style and finished his race out well, blowing by the horse that had passed him and rallying strongly as the winner went by.

However this big muscle-bound horse did look rather disorganised and ungainly in the closing stages, racing with his head rather too high and looking a bit hard to steer. This being so I now think the fact he got hampered in a big field and took ages to recover was the reason for his Ascot flop rather than not staying the ten furlongs. He showed last time that a mile on fast ground around an easy course is too sharp for him. And on this run he looks a slam dunk to stay ten furlongs. In fields smaller than twelve I like his chances of winning in Group company. He does hit the ground rather hard so I'm also thinking he'd be best with a bit of cut in the ground like he got here.

Third placed DUX SCHOLAR (38) took a while to get rolling on this cut back to nine furlongs. He wasn't exactly helped by fourth placed Anmar rolling inwards and leaning on him as he tried to make ground two furlongs out. Once he got clear his jockey say the first two had flown and only rode him hands and heels in the last furlong to ensure third place.

Dux Scholar obviously needs to go back up to ten furlongs. He's a solid Group 2 horse on my ratings over that distance and has every chance of getting a mile and a half. He's a good mover so may prefer faster ground.



HOW GOOD IS SET TO MUSIC?

SET THE MUSIC (37) only clocked a Listed class time to win the Galtres Stakes. But her jockey, Jamie Spencer, was sitting with a double handful from a long way out and only pressed the button in the final furlong.

The response was instantaneous. Set The Music rapidly picked up the leader and sprinted clear to win with a lot in hand. She's now won all four times she's run ten furlongs or more.

I'm not sure that Set The Music improved for the step up to a mile and a half as the pace to the five furlong from home mark was over two seconds slower than in the preceding Yorkshire Oaks. She won what was pretty much a sprint home from there.

The plan to run Set The Music in the Prix Vermeille is an ambitious one as it looks set to be a hot race this year. But at least her performance there will tell us just how good she is - something that was hard to judge from this win as she clearly had a lot in hand.

I have to say though that if she were mine I'd be cutting Set The Music back to ten furlongs and shooting for either Canada's E P Taylor Stakes or Italy's Premio Lydia Tesio. Those are Group 1 races just like the Vermeille but they're usually a good deal weaker.





AWAIT THE DAWN STILL A VIABLE CANDIDATE FOR BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC

This year's Juddmonte International reminded us that horses don't run against the clock, they run against each other. The goal of their jockeys is to win the race not run the fastest time.

This being so I wouldn't pay too much attention to the slow final time of the race. The jockey on Await The Dawn's pacemaker was understandably reluctant to set too strong a gallop after the Coolmore pacemaker had clearly gone off too fast in the preceding race. When he faded the three principals hooked up and started sprinting too far from home for them to sustain their speed to the line. As a result they tired rather badly in the final furlong. The uneven pace distribution hurt the final time. My best estimate, based on taking into account the two and a half furlong sprint up to the furlong pole is that if the pace had been more even the winner TWICE OVER (40) would have clocked a time around 1.2 seconds faster than he actually did.

I’ve never been a huge fan of Twice Over because he always seems to take a painfully long time to get rolling, just as he did here. He needs a long, uninterrupted run to produce his best form.

The only way this can be guaranteed is on a straight course or in a small field (seven or fewer runners) on a track where the homestraight is at least half a mile, as it is at York.

Twice Over has now run seven times in these circumstances since his three year old days over his specialist trip of ten furlongs, and he’s won all even times - including in four Group 1 contests.

MIDDAY (39) did her thing of hanging across the track in the closing stages and just got run out of it after looking likely to hold on for quite a while. I don't really have anything new to say about her.

AWAIT THE DAWN (35) got outpaced when the sprint began and the first two kicked away from him. Having studied the race beforehand I had a suspicion that something of the sort might happen.

Await The Dawn first came to my attention when he won a Conditions race over ten furlongs at Cork last year and followed it up with a nine length win in a Group 3.

I couldn’t rate either of those runs as being worth more than a Group 3 class speed rating from me. But I noted at the time that he was so one paced and kept on so strongly he would surely improve for a greater test of stamina.

I suggested that the ideal target for Await The Dawn was the Irish St Leger over a mile and three quarters. He was entered for that race. Later on he was also entered for the Prix de Chaudenay over 1m 7f. But he didn’t take up his entries in either contest. This was surprising as he looks an out and out stayer and his three siblings that ran more than a handful of times all showed smart form over at least a mile and three quarters.

Await The Dawn won another Group 3 in good style on his seasonal debut, sticking to ten furlongs. And I tried hard to find a way to interpret the final or sectional times to say it was better than average for the class, but it wasn’t.

Last time out Await The Dawn was stepped up to a mile and a half for the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. Ascot rises a massive 54 feet in the last mile, making it a very testing track where the final furlong is usually around 13.5 seconds at a mile and a half even on good ground. This time around the going was soft. In addition the early pace was exceptionally strong.

Due to the testing nature of the race the final three furlongs took no less than 41.7 seconds to run. And Await The Dawn lumbered through the final furlong in 14.9 seconds. I’ve seen Grand National winners finish faster.

The time Await The Dawn clocked at Ascot earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me. But you have to wonder whether he’d have been able to run such a good time if the race hadn’t developed into such a slog. The conditions made it ride like a mile and three quarter contest.

I was surprised to see Await The Dawn cutting back to ten furlongs and doing so on faster ground than he encountered at Ascot on a course that’s flat as a pancake. He’s never looked better than a Group 3 horse over ten furlongs and still doesn't. And I’m not buying the fact he had a temperature after the race as an excuse. If a vet looks hard enough they can find an excuse for any run.

The obvious reason for Await The Dawn not taking up his entries over marathon trips last year and cutting back to ten furlongs at York is that Coolmore see him as a stallion prospect. He’s got to win a Group 1 over twelve furlongs or less, preferably over ten furlongs to become a viable stallion. If he was stepped up to a mile and three quarters his stud value would drop to something like 10% of what it could be if he succeeds in taking a Group 1 over a shorter distance. The bloodstock market simply hates stayers - unless they’re female. Stallions need to show speed to become popular at stud.

Having said all that, I still stick with my view that Await The Dawn would be a viable candidate for the Breeders' Cup Classic. That race is run on dirt, a surface that's more testing than turf and on which the horses do most of their running early. The final furlong in big dirt races over ten furlongs plus is usually 13 seconds or slower. And five of the six European runners to reach the first three in the Breeders' Cup Classic when it's been run on dirt have earned their best previous Racing Post rating on turf over a mile and a half or more.

Indeed I reckon the reason so many European runners have flopped in the Breeders' Cup Classic is that we've sent over way too many horses that were best over ten furlongs on turf. They didn't last home on the more testing surface in America.

For those of you interested in big race stats, there's one I uncovered for the Juddmonte International that looks powerful.

The stats show that multiple winners of ‘proper’ Group 1 races have a fantastic record in the Juddmonte International.

By ’proper’ I mean Group 1 races against males over a mile or more in in Britain, Ireland or France.

Here is how such horses have fared in the Juddmonte International for as far back as I can trace, along with their best previous Racing Post rating (not available before 1988 as Racing Post didn‘t exist).

2011 Twice Over 127 WON

2010 Rip Van Winkle 132 WON

Twice Over 125 second

2009 Sea The Stars 135 WON

Mastercraftsman 124 second

2008 Duke Of Marmalade 130 WON

New Approach 126 third

2007 Dylan Thomas 1 31 second

Authorized 130 WON

2004 Sulamani 128 WON

Bago 118 third

2003 Falbrav 126 WON

2002 Nayef 129 WON

Golan 129 second

2001 Medicean 126 third

2000 Giant’s Causeway 130 WON

1997 Singspiel 127 WON

Desert King 123 second

1996 Halling 127 WON

Spectrum 124 fifth

1994 King’s Theatre 126 third

Ezzoud 121 WON

1992 Dr Devious 124 fourth

Rodrigo De Triano 123 WON

1987 Triptych - WON

1982 Assert - WON

Fifteen winners in sixteen years from a total of 26 qualifiers isn't bad.







BREEDERS' CUP MILE THE RIGHT RACE FOR EXCELEBRATION

The early pace wasn't that strong in the Hungerford Stakes but EXCELEBRATION (40) picked up in tremendous style to sprint away in the final furlong and score by six lengths. His fantastic leg speed in the closing stages was reminiscent of the amazing French filly Moonlight Cloud.

Excelebration's ability to quicken up off an ordinary pace was shown before when he sprinted away from his rivals up the straight in the German 2000 Guineas around Cologne, the tightest track in Germany. This being so the blindingly obvious target for him just has to be the Breeders' Cup Mile.

I say this because in American turf races the early pace is invariably slow followed by a sprint finish. And this year's Breeders' Cup Mile is to be run at Churchill Downs where the turf course is just seven furlongs in circumference. His other big race options in Britain, Hong Kong and Japan are in countries where the early pace is usually much stronger.

Another thing I liked about Excelebration's Hungerford win was the way he neatly extracted himself from what was developing into a very messy traffic situation two furlongs out. He's a close coupled, nippy sort whose agility will stand him in good stead in the crowded field he'll have to negotiate his way through in America.



KOHALA A BIG DANGER TO REQUINTO IN FLYING CHILDERS

KOHALA (38) clocked a seriously fast time to win the St Hughs Stakes at Newbury - a race that surely merits an upgrade from Listed to Group 3.

Two of the last three winners of the St Hughs Stakes have gone on to win the Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster. The Flying Childers lost its Group 1 status in 1979 but still ranks as the European championship event for five furlong two year olds. On this running Kohala has a serious chance of winning it even with the pacey Requinto lining up against her.

If she hadn't run green and lost in a photo on her debut Kohala would now be unbeaten in three races over an easy five furlongs. She's got beat the two times she's run five furlongs on tracks with steep uphill finishes. This makes Doncaster's Flying Childers look a better target than the obvious alternative of the Cornwallis Stakes at the more testing Ascot.





TERDAAD LOOKS WELL AHEAD OF HANDICAPPER

I don't know what distance Primevere ran when breaking the course record for ten furlongs at Salisbury last week. It's tough to estimate too because there were only four races run around the turn at the two day meeting.

However I can say that much the fastest times of the two day fixture up the straight were the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes and the class 4 handicap over the same trip won by the promising TERDAAD (36).

Terdaad ran only six hundredths of a second slower than the Sovereign Stakes winner, though I concede this was partly because they went a bit slow in the early stages of the Group 3 contest. But he still clocked a Listed class time despite idling and running a bit green when he hit the front after sweeping through from last place with a big run.

Terdaad has a fast ground action which is obviously a bit of a concern with the wet Autumn weather just around the corner. But he can surely be placed to win something decent before he's presumably put away for the Dubai Carnival. He's already won on Polytrack so should take to the Tapeta surface at Meydan where he looks a decent bet to win a valuable handicap at least.

Runner up ELECTRA STAR (36) has run three times on fast turf beyond sprint trips and would have made it three wins out of three in these conditions but for bumping into a freakishly good rival for the class. She met trouble in running but the way the winner rallied when she got to him suggests to me he would have held her off anyway.

I don't know for sure that Electra Star dislikes mud as she's so lightly raced. Certainly she looks likely to win again soon.





TOP OFFER LOOKS SMART

The early pace was slow in the 7f Newbury maiden won by TOP OFFER (35) on his racecourse debut. But he quickened impressively to cover the last two furlongs faster than they went in the fast five furlong Listed event on the same card - and a lot faster than they went in the other two races over the distance. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it points to a performance level that's Group 3 for a two year old.

Top Offer looked impressive as he kicked clear and is clearly built and bred for at least ten furlongs. His turn of foot over this short a distance off such a slow pace suggests that he could well be pretty darned special over longer or off a stronger gallop. He has a smooth, flowing stride that looks designed for fast surfaces.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to step Top Offer up to a mile for his next start. But whatever his connections do with him I'd be wary of opposing him until he's shown exactly what he's capable of in a more strongly run race. Right now all I can say is he's a Group horse. Whether he's a Group 1 horse only time will tell.







DISCOURSE IS LITLE MORE THAN TALK

DISCOURSE (35) broke the juvenile course record and clocked a fair time when winning the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. But I don't think it was appropriate to make her second favourite for the 1000 Guineas on the back of this performance.

It's not simply that Discourse clocked only merited a speed rating that's Group 3 for a juvenile filly that's putting me off. It's the way she's built and bred plus the way she raced.

In the closing stages the sheepskin noseband Discourse wears did not prevent her head coming up. She was clearly not exerting herself fully, ran green and slowed up to clock slower than 36 seconds for the last three furlongs. I'd expect a genuine Guineas candidate to show a much better finishing kick than that.

Discourse has the build of a ten furlong horse for me. Her sire was a ten furlong horse. Her dam showed her best beyond a mile. And her best sibling by far is Bandini who has already won a Group 1 over nine furlongs on dirt and may well stay further.

Perhaps Discourse will run faster as she gains experience and hopefully becomes more focused on racing. But I wouldn't bet her doing so over a mile at three. I see her as a prospect for an Oaks Trial not the Guineas.
 
I think he makes some good points re Sea Moon. That was a terrible race run on awful ground last week and ratings of almost 130 for him seem ludicrous.
 
I wouldn't have thought that would have taken too much out of Sea Moon. He's pretty unexposed (only two races this season), it has probably brought him on if anything.
 
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Agree. Races where they stretch clear always take a lot more out of a horse than people think.

I agree with Nick Mordin's overall point here, in that I think Blue Bunting will win the Leger. She shouldn't be favourite though.
 
Hamm said:
I agree with Nick Mordin's overall point here, in that I think Blue Bunting will win the Leger. She shouldn't be favourite though.
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I don't understand why she should not be favourite ... expect I'm missing something (between the ears?)
 
Because she's a filly taking on colts over an extreme distance.

She will need to be a good one to do it but she certainly has all of the qualities you need and is hard as nails!!!
 
Aragorn said:
Because she's a filly taking on colts over an extreme distance.

She will need to be a good one to do it but she certainly has all of the qualities you need and is hard as nails!!!
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Ok, well good luck to her, brave fillies or horses deserve that.
Maybe she should have that filly seducer KF up? (that will not be popular now!)

Anyway, maybe he's not so great with fillies, but I thought he was.
 
His latest musings:

DUBAWI GOLD NOT TILTING AT WINDMILLS IN MOULIN

Richard Hughes rode like a French jockey when bringing DUBAWI GOLD (41) with a sharp late burst to sweep past his rivals and win the Celebration Mile narrowly but comfortably. So it's appropriate that his next intended target is the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.

Dubawi Gold will be up against some very smart milers in the French race. But the turn of foot he showed here, the time he clocked and the ease of his win tells me he will have a serious chance as long as the ground is slow enough.

As I've mentioned before Dubawi Gold is a good-bodied, rangy sort that shows knee action. He appears to hit the ground a little hard to be at his best on a fast surface. His record backs up this idea. He has won all four times he's run 7f+ on Polytrack (a surface that offers plenty of cushion) or on turf where the going stick has read 7.4 or lower. He broke his maiden on good to firm ground but has lost all his subsequent nine starts on good or faster surfaces.

Runner up SET THE TREND (40) made what looked like a winning move when kicking on with a furlong to go but was swamped for finishing speed by the winner.

After he'd run a close third to the brilliant German miler Alianthus I suggested this was the race Set The Trend should target as he has such a tremendous record in fields of ten or less and the Celebration Mile rarely attracts more than seven or eight.

The Prix Daniel Wildenstein was nominated as Set The Trend's next likely target. This seems logical as it normally attracts a field small enough to suit Set The Trend. The concern I'd have there is the likely sprint finish which is the norm at Longchamp, seeing how he got done for a turn of foot here. I'd want the ground to be soft for that race to counteract this before risking money on him.

Third placed BEACON LODGE (40) picked up nicely in the closing stages after taking a bump a furlong and a half out. He's lost the last eleven Group races he's contested but has now earned Group 2 class speed ratings from me on many occasions. All he needs is a bit of cut in the ground to win at this level. Indeed, if the ground is slow enough on the day I'd fancy his chances of turning this form around with the runner up in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein.



ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL NEEDS TO GO BACK IN TRIP

ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (29) was moving so well for most of the way in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor that it looked to be a question of when jockey Eddie Ahern chose to press the button. But the near mile and a half distance clearly found him out because he tired dramatically after a mile, started to roll around and faded rapidly to finish a distant third.

I concede that Elusive Pimpernel did run second over the extended ten furlongs at Haydock. But that was off a very slow early pace. He clearly failed to get home the other three times he ran beyond nine furlongs.

Elusive Pimpernel clocked a time fast enough to win most Group 3's when running third in the nine furlong Earl Of Sefton Stakes back in the Spring. This makes next moth's Darley Stakes over the same course and distance look a decent target. But pretty much any Group 3 or Listed race that Elusive Pimpernel contests in the near future over short of ten furlongs should give him a good chance - especially if he gets the cut in the ground he prefers.



PRINCE SIEGFRIED HAS TO GO FOR PREMIO ROMA

PRINCE SIEGFRIED (41) is a quirky, high strung horse with dodgy forelegs. But with a bit of cut in the ground he's top class over ten furlongs. He showed this when winning a lengthy duel with the smart Dux Scholar to take Windsor's top race, the Winter Hill Stakes.

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor is clearly right to say Prince Siegfried tries very hard. The horse looked beaten when the runner up cruised into the lead but he kept worrying away at him to get back up and win narrowly.

Prince Siegfried pushed himself so hard here I'd like to see him given a break for at least a month following this win. He holds no more Group race entries at present but the blindingly obvious target for him just as to be the Premio Roma, a race that his stable won last year. The Premio Roma is always run on soft ground and is usually the weakest middle distance Group 1 for older horses in Europe.

Runner up DUX SCHOLAR (41) had a bit of trouble finding a run, so his jockey waited for the gap created by the intersection on the figure 8 course three and a half furlongs out to make his move. He came through smoothly but did so initially half a dozen horse widths away from Prince Siegfried who had till then been racing where the jockeys clearly thought the ground was faster.

When Prince Siegfried drifted across to join him Dux Scholar was still moving strongly and looked set to extend his narrow lead. But his rival proved very game and got back up as the pair steadily pulled a long way clear of the rest in the kind of duel only top class horses can sustain.

My strong impression was that Dux Scholar would have done even better if the race had been two furlongs longer. He was certainly still travelling very strongly crossing the line.

Dux Scholar's trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a tremendous knack of bringing his top middle distance horses along slowly and getting them to peak in the big WFA mile and a half races at four and five.

Dux Scholar has plenty of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree and looks set to me a star for Stoute over a mile and a half next year. I'll be very interested to see where he goes next.
 
FRENCH NAVY HAS A SHOT IN CHAMPION STAKES

I rated FRENCH NAVY (40) the top French two year old last year. So I was disappointed when he suffered a fracture (presumably when suffering his only loss) and had to be laid off till August.

He came back to beat Group 1 winner Joshua Tree at Newmarket and followed up with a smooth win from the useful Slumber in fast time at Doncaster. The run establishes him as one of the top three year old middle distance colts on my ratings. Though I should add that this year the three year old middle distance colts do not look to be a strong group.

As a juvenile French Navy looked a mile and a half prospect to me. But the way he picked up so quickly over ten furlongs here makes me inclined to agree with Godolphin's Diana Copper that this is his best distance.

The logical move now is to take up French Navy's entry in the Champion Stakes. He'd have a decent chance there, though I have to say I don't think he'd be up to beating Cirrus des Aigles. Given his connections I imagine he will be targeted at the Dubai World Cup in the Spring.



SADDLER'S ROCK GETS INTERESTING FOR ASCOT GOLD CUP

I liked the way that SADDLER'S ROCK (40) came through smoothly off a strong pace to win the Doncaster Cup in fast time. The step up to two and a quarter miles clearly improved this lightly raced four year old.

Saddler's Rock needs fast ground according to his trainer. But that shouldn't be a problem in regards to his long term target, the Ascot Gold Cup, as it's invariably run on a fast surface.

FARHAAN STAYS WELL

It looked like FARHAAN (35) was taking one stride to his rival's two when just getting the better of Mister Music in a sprint finish to a good novice plate over a mile at Salisbury. But by counting their strides in the final furlong I was able to determine that Mister Music's stride was 22 feet while that of Farhaan was 23.6 feet.

I found this relatively small difference a little surprising as Farhaan exhibits a really long stride. But a web search showed that the stride length of all horses shortens when they're running at top speed. For example, the US triple Crown winner Man O'War had a 28 foot stride when he was running in a gallop but only 24.8 feet when running at top speed in a race.

In any event Farhaan clearly as a long stride. He is a tall, big, long backed sort that looks built for every inch of a mile and a half. He's not designed to produce push button acceleration but was still able to get by a useful, pacier rival at Salisbury - in a race where they came home 1.1 seconds faster from the path 3.3 furlongs from the finish than they did in the good handicap for fillies over a furlong shorter. When I adjust my rating to take account of this it suggests a performance around the Listed to Group 3 level by Farhaan.

It's possible that Farhaan will prove to be a big boat of a horse that always gets done for a turn of foot in pattern company. But I want to see what he can do off a stronger pace, on softer ground or over a longer distance before I make that sort of judgement. My feeling is that he could do a fair bit better than this with a greater test of stamina.

Runner up MISTER MUSIC (35) enjoyed an uncontested lead at a slow pace, so many people are going to take this run with a pinch of salt. But he bolted up the only previous time he tackled a stiff track and I like the way he pulled clear of the rest as he engaged in a lengthy duel with the winner. At Ascot, Salisbury, Sandown or Pontefract, where the exceptionally steep uphill finishes would help him, I can see him winning something decent before the season is over.



ZERO MONEY CAN WIN A BIG SPRINT

ZERO MONEY (40) clocked a seriously fast time to win a good class 2 sprint handicap at Haydock. He actually came home faster over the last three furlongs than they did in the Sprint Cup on the same card, even when I adjust for the furlong shorter trip he ran.

Clearly Zero Money has improved massively for the cut back to five and six furlongs. He should be able to take a big sprint before the season is over, and I note with interest he's entered up in the Portland.



SHUMOOS PROBABLY NEEDS FAST GROUND

I gave SHUMOOS (33) a big Group 1 rating for her debut win. And I don't think this was in error as the four and a half length runner up Frederick Engels franked the form by winning his next three starts - including at Royal Ascot and in the Group 2 July Stakes.

This being so, I've been scratching my head over why Shumoos has failed to run anything like as fast in her four subsequent starts.

Following her win in the Group3 Sirenia Stakes on Kempton's Polytrack last weekend I think the answer must be that Shumoos needs a fast surface. Her debut win was on good to firm ground and her three subsequent turf outings were on good or slower, with much her worst effort coming the only time she encountered a surface slower than good.

Polytrack has more cushion than turf but it actually produces less slippage and holds a horse's hooves in place on the surface more than even firm turf. It also has some similarities to dirt - the surface that Shumoos is really bred for.

Shumoos produced a storming finish to get up on the line at Kempton. She still didn't run anything like as fast as she did on her debut. But I think the fact that the runner up Vocational was able to slow things down in the lead and then accelerate up the straight played against Shumoos.

Having previously thought she was a five furlong speedball I have to say I now think Shumoos will be better suited by longer than the six furlongs of this race. That's what her pedigree and physique suggest to me, and her connections clearly think the same way.

Even so if she gets good to firm or faster ground for her next objective, the Cheveley Park, I'd be inclined to bet her despite the fact it's only six furlongs.

Seeing how mature she is and how likely she is to be suited to dirt and longer trips I'd be skipping the Cheveley Park and sending Shumoos over to America to prepare for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. I reckon she'd be a slam dunk to win a Grade stakes over a longer distance on dirt and that would stand her in good stead for the big race.



BAUER LOOKS AS GOOD AS EVER

BAUER (38) missed all of 2009 with an injury, only managed two starts in 2010 and had just one previous start this term. But the eight year old bounced back to something like his best to win the Old Borough Cup in fast time. He had to switch twice but coped well with the big field and was always going to win once he started his run.

The idea circumstances for Bauer are a flat track and fast ground. If that short head photo in the Melbourne Cup had gone his way he would have won eight of the eleven times he's met these circumstances when he's had a run within the last nine weeks.

I don't see any good reason why Bauer shouldn't be able to keep on showing this sort of form and be a real contender for the Melbourne Cup once more. He's clearly well suited to conditions down under as his win in the Geelong Cup demonstrated. He looks to have a serious shot of taking that race again in the run up to the big one.



MOTIVADO A SERIOUSLY GOOD HURDLING PROSPECT

The runners went off rather too fast for their own good in the class 3 handicap for three year olds over the same trip as the Old Borough Handicap earlier on the card at Haydock last Saturday. They ran the first nine furlongs 1.2 seconds faster. They kept the gallop going for another couple of furlongs but everything barring MOTIVADO (37) then started grinding to a halt rapidly. As a result they took 2.2 seconds longer to over the final three furlongs than they did in the big race.

Motivado himself tired and was rolling around in the closing stages as a result. But he kept going much better than his rivals to go seven lengths clear despite being allowed to coast the final hundred yards.

Motivado is a great big beast of a horse, and one of his owners understandably talked him up as a hurdling prospect after the race. No doubt he'll be heading to the Horses In Training Sale at Newmarket next month where I'd anticipate some vigorous bidding from the top jumping yards.

Meanwhile Motivado may line up for the Mallard Stakes later this week. The concern there is he's so darned big that, like So You Think, he's always going to be tough to steer out of traffic trouble in large fields. Indeed he met interference in a big field on his previous start. Over jumps things will be easier for him in this regard as the field spread themselves out more and it's therefore much easier to avoid interference.

If he sticks to the flat I could see Motivado developing into a Cup horse next season.
 
Motivado has looked so slow and awkward at times I will be astonished if he runs in a Cup race-he is possibly too awkward for hurdling.
Mordin style seems to be pick a certain amount of horse every week and make outrageous claims-nobody remembers the plainly ridiculous stuff like Apache is an Irish Derby horse but when one of his darts hits the board you never hear the end of it.
 
If he paid any attention, he would see that the biggest factor in Shumoos winning again was the fact she finally decided to settle. That doesn't fit in with any of his 'theories' so it's best to ignore it....

Very lazy stuff as usual.
 
You mean a personal jibe like you just did? I explained WHY I thought he was lazy, and not sure what is wrong with that. Debate the issue, not the man, please.

Aren't you the mentalist who is advocating shooting people who annoy you on another thread? You seem like a good person to debate racing with ...
 
His thoughts on the Arc Trials and a very exciting Freddy Head filly:

ZANTENDA THE ONE TO BEAT IN BOUSSAC

Only two of the 27 Prix d'Aumale winners to run in the Prix Marcel Boussac have scored. But another five ran second. So I don't think the stats provide a strong arguement against ZANTENDA (36) pulling off the double this year.

Zantenda certainly won the Prix d'Aumale well, coming with a late rush to win narrowly but cosily in the style so common in France. She clocked a solid time between Group 2 and 3 class for a 2YO filly. But my strong feeling is that she could have pulled out another couple of lengths, and that would have pushed this performance firmly into Group 1 territory.

Despite the fact that she's by a sprinter out of a sprinter, Zantenda actually looks built to get the ten and a half furlongs of the Prix de Diane next year. She's pretty tall, mature and long striding and well put together.

This is rather an odd season for two year olds, especially the fillies, because until very recently we'd seen far fewer top class performances in this division than normal. Now the good ones are starting to come out of the woodwork and Zantenda is clearly one of the best of them. She looks the one to beat in the Marcel Boussac.

I liked the way that runner up RAJASTANI (36) pulled clear of the rest as she tried to hold off the winner. She's not as mature, big or as good looking as the winner but is clearly smart. She'd shown a good turn of foot to win her first two starts and will doubtless be heading for the Marcel Boussac as well. I can readily see her staying the Prix de Diane distance as well next year.

British raider KINETICA (34) set a searching pace. She was five lengths clear most of the way and still had an advantage of three lengths approaching the final furlong. But she tired and was soon passed by first two.

Kinetica failed to get home when tiring into a distant third place in the Sweet Solera Stakes and it could well be she needs a turn to curb her exuberant style of running. In fact if the photo had gone her way first time out she would have won the three previous times she'd run around a turn.





THE JAPANESE HAVE ANOTHER SERIOUS CHANCE IN ARC

Below you can see the sectional times for the three Arc Trials run last Sunday together with those for last year's Arc. I’ve adjusted those for Galikova's Prix Vermeille and the Arc to take account of the slower surface they were run on:



Sarafina Reliable Man Galikova 2010 Arc

1000 1m34.07 1m 34.47 1m 32.54 1m 28.00

600 1m 58.76 1m 58.11 1m 57.14 1m 53.08

400 2m 10.35 2m 09.54 2m 09.02 2m 05.26

200 2m 21,17 2m 20.63 2m 20.59 Not available

Finish 2m 32.28 2m 32.43 2m 32.68 2m 31.54



As you can see all three Arc trials featured a much slower early pace to the 1000 metre (5f) from home mark than in last year's Arc.

SARAFINA (40) clocked a slightly faster time than the winners of the other two Arc trials when taking the Prix Foy. And she produced much the fastest finish, wriggling through a very narrow gap to score in a final furlong officially run in just 11.11 seconds.

Sarafina can produce an astonishing burst of finishing speed in a slow run race when the field is small enough to allow her an uninterrupted passage. In fact I could hardly believe how fast she finished when taking a very slow run five runner Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her previous start. She actually ran the last quarter mile in just 21 seconds flat in that contest. That's the fastest final quarter mile I've ever heard of.

The big problem with Sarafina's ultra-late running style is that in big fields she tends to encounter traffic problems. She broke her maiden in a big field but since then she's lost both times and encountered traffic when she's contested races with more than nine runners. In single figure fields she's won six out of seven.

In last year's Arc Sarafina was forced to check early and then nearly got brought down rounding the home turn. She clearly had major problems coping with the big field. I can't see why it should be any different this time around seeing that she had trouble finding a run against just three rivals in the Prix Foy. How on earth the bookies can justify making her ante-post favourite for the Arc is beyond me.

Runner up HIRUNO D'AMOUR (40) looks a better candidate for the Arc than the winner. He took the brave route down the inside when winning one of Japan's top races, the Tenno Sho, against seventeen rivals off a searching early pace on his previous start back in May.

This strong, good looking Japanese colt put up a great performance to run Sarafina to a photo seeing that he was clearly unfit and the winner bumped him from behind on the home turn, costing him ground.

Hiruno d'Amour has lost all four times he's come into a race off a break of seven weeks or more as he did here. And, like a lot of horses that need the run, he appeared sluggish before the race. Trainer Mitsugu Kon commented on this, saying "He was so quiet in the parade ring and the preliminaries that I wished he'd show a little more spark."

Jockey Shinji Fujita seemed to be under instructions not to use his whip as he only pushed Hiruno d'Amour out with hands and heels in the closing stages. Nonetheless this was enough for him to surge forward up the straight, gain two lengths to take a narrow lead and then hang on for second by what would be called a head in Britain or Ireland.

Kon told the JRA after the race that he viewed Sarafina's push up the rail as a sign she had no extra to spare. "The winner is the likely favourite for the Arc, but to have had to go up the inside like she did, I'd say she was having a rough time of it. I think we can expect to turn the tables next time out. Hiruno d'Amour still has room for improvement and is not in tiptop shape yet. I'm going to get him there now as we aim for the big race."

Hiruno d'Amour gives Japan another serious chance of winning the Arc. But this year he's not their only chance. Last year's runner up NAKAYAMA FESTA (38) has another shot at the race after having a warm up off a lengthy break in the Prix Foy.

Nakayama Festa's jockey let him bowl along in the lead at a strong pace for the first furlong or so to open up a five length break. He then slowed it up from the front before starting the sprint for home entering the straight. The horse was still level with a furlong to run but looked to blow up through lack of fitness, only being ridden hands and heels from there to get beat three and a quarter lengths.

Nakayama Festa has a record of going well fresh but had been off for ages before this run, as his trainer noted. He said "It was his first time running since the Japan Cup last year and you could not say he was in great shape. But, now that we've had a good run, I think he will improve for the next race. He took the lead and he was running balanced throughout. Only at the end did he run out of steam, but I think he'll have more for next time."

This run definitely improved Nakayama Festa's chances of winning the Arc. I'm a little concerned that he will peak one run after the Arc and that his connections have the Japan Cup at the back of their minds rather than the Arc. But he still has to rank as one of the major players.

Third placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (38) ranged alongside Nakayama Festa when the sprint began but was soon outpaced by the first two. It's looking more and more like he wants to go back up to the kind of marathon trip that saw him win so impressively at Chester early this season. The Prix Royal Oak would be his obvious target.



RELIABLE MAN LOOKS A BIT DODGY FOR THE ARC

RELIABLE MAN (39) looked impressive when winning the Prix Niel by a couple of lengths from the Grand Prix de Paris winner Meandre. But I’m still not convinced he's truly top class. He earned the same rather ordinary speed rating from me the he had on his previous two starts despite having a better chance of clocking a good final time than the winners of the other two Arc trials.

They picked up much more strongly off the slow early pace in the Prix Niel from the five furlong marker than they did in the Foy or Vermeille, covering the half mile from there to the furlong pole almost a second faster than in the Foy and nearly two seconds quicker than the Vermeille. In addition Reliable Man was pushed out by his rider all the way through the final furlong. If he was really top class I'd have expected him to clock a significantly faster final time.

It's hard to knock Reliable Man on form as he's only lost once in four starts and looked impressive here. But until he runs faster I'm going to oppose him in Group 1 company.



GALIKOVA STILL LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY ARC WINNER

I've been whittering on about GALIKOVA (38) as an Arc prospect ever since she won the Prix Cleopatre in sensational time back in May - where she clocked a faster time than the subsequent Derby winner Pour Moi managed on the same card in a truly run race. Following her win in the Prix Vermeille I still see her as the one they all have to beat.

Galikova is clearly best off a strong early pace. But she showed in the Vermeille as she had on her previous start that she can still dominate inferior rivals even when there's a sprint finish. She picked up really well to surge nearly three lengths clear without being hard pressed.

Galikova was in season when second in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) and has won all her other four starts this season. I've compared her to Zarkava before. More people will be doing that if she pulls off the Vermeille-Arc double as that one did.
 
Hamm said:
You mean a personal jibe like you just did? I explained WHY I thought he was lazy, and not sure what is wrong with that. Debate the issue, not the man, please.

Aren't you the mentalist who is advocating shooting people who annoy you on another thread? You seem like a good person to debate racing with ...
Click to expand...

So no thoughts on my first 2 sentences then? For clarity - you didn't explain why you thought he was lazy, you made a statement which was at odds with the evidence at hand and then made another statement that your error constituted laziness on the part of Mordin.
 
in general, I read his posts and find some interesting thinsg but in sarafina case I read it completely in the opposite way, a big field and fast pace will help her to settle and she should be better in those conditions than winning this small fields she has been running despite the inept rides of Lemaire
 
Is her form really any better than So You Think's? I'd say on pure ratings that SYT has put in a better effort in every run this year compared to her.
 
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