rorydelargy
At the Start
He seems confused by Fingal Bay - Superstar - Overrated - Superstar, but more so by his name, calling him Neptune Bay twice, and Final Bay once. Perhaps he thinks there are 3 different horses?
The thoughts of Nick Mordin.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
Colin Phillips
At the Start
BINOCULAR UP AGAINST IT IN BID FOR SECOND CHAMPION HURDLE
There was absolutely nothing wrong with the success of BINOCULAR (42) in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He jumped well and outkicked a top class rival to win narrowly in fast time.
However it has to be said that it's now been almost two years since Binocular's brilliant win in the 2010 Champion Hurdle and, for one reason or another, he has not quite been able to match the level of form he showed that day in his subsequent outings - whatever set of speed or handicap ratings you use. Indeed his official handicap rating has fallen eight pounds since his big win.
It could be that trainer Nicky Henderson will manage to get Binocular back to the same form he showed in the Spring of 2010. You can certainly argue that he's being trained to peak for the Champion Hurdle and that this was a big step in the right direction.
My concern is that the stats for the big Cheltenham race suggest we should be wary of horses like Binocular.
In the last 23 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 13 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 13 reached the first three and only one ran better than eighth.
If the same proportion of Champion Hurdlers have attempted the feat in the entire history of the race then 45 bids to win again in non-consecutive years have been made for just a single success. This was by Comedy Of Errors in the 1975 Champion Hurdle.
Comedy Of Errors had run second in the 1974 Champion Hurdle. Binocular was forced to miss last year's event due to that strange episode with drugs used to clear up an infection still being in his system at the time.
You have to wonder just how well Binocular would have done in last year's Champion Hurdle if he'd lined up in light of his thirteen and nine length losses in his subsequent two starts at Aintree and Punchestown. Those poor efforts undermine any confidence supporters of the horse might feel as he warms up for his attempt on hurdling's biggest prize in 2012.
Watching the race it was hard not to feel that neck runner up ROCK ON RUBY (42) might well have got back up to beat Binocular if there had been an uphill finish as there will be at Cheltenham.
Rock On Ruby's physique and pedigree suggest he is more about strength and stamina than Binocular whose turn of foot and tactical speed gave him a serious edge in a small field on fast ground around a tight track.
Despite this Rock On Ruby has a fine record at the minimum hurdles distance. If the photo had gone his way here he would now have won all six times he's run 2 miles since his losing racecourse debut. I see him as one of the top candidates for the Champion Hurdle.
FINGAL BAY CAN RUN FASTER
FINGAL BAY (38) kept his unbeaten record when winning the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle at Newbury. But he idled rather badly after looking set to score by around six lengths, finally having just one length to spare at the line.
This run will surely give jockeys on future rivals of Fingal Bay ideas. They'll realise that the way to beat him is to let him kick clear then come with s sharp late burst while he's idling. No doubt we'll see this attempted sooner rather than later.
There's no question that Fingal Bay can run faster than this. But the runner up BALLYROCK (38) is still a very decent staying novice hurdler that has already won a point to point.
BOBS WORTH THE ONE TO BEAT IN RSA CHASE
One of the most interesting stats in jump racing is that all seventeen winners of the Feltham Novices Chase that have gone on to run in the RSA Chase have lost while five Feltham losers have won the big Cheltenham race.
You can get some sense of why this is so from watching the video of the latest renewal of the Feltham run over Christmas.
The winner GRANDS CRUS (42) has to rate as one of the best two winners in the history of the Feltham along with last year's victor Long Run. But it was obvious that it was his pace gave him the edge over the second and third at Kempton. Around the more testing Cheltenham it's easy to see how they could reverse placings with him as they were both staying on so well.
Grands Crus was able to make up ground quickly to take the lead seven fences out after settling behind the searching early pace. He kicked five lengths clear entering the straight and had enough in reserve to be eased up late to score by over two lengths.
I'm prepared to say Grands Crus had trouble adapting to fixed brush hurdles when he made that abortive trip to France in the Summer. He would have won the other nine times he's run beyond two and a half miles but for twice bumping into Big Buck's and finishing second.
I have a nagging feeling that Grands Crus is a bit light framed to like jumping fences in a big field. Maybe this is why he lost that race in France where he faced nine rivals over fixed brush hurdles (which are basically baby fences). But that is just a suspicion based on insufficient evidence. Right now he's looking like a top class horse that's remarkably versatile.
Runner up SILVINIACO CONTI (41) was clearly very well suited by the strong pace and the step up to two miles. This deep chested sort moved out of the pack travelling ominously well to look a serious threat to the winner with six to jump. However Grands Crus had the pace to open up a gap on him before Silviniaco Conti's stamina enabled him to start clawing back the deficit in the closing sages.
Horses as young as Silviniaco Conti don't have a great record in the RSA Chase. So it was understandable that trainer Paul Nicholls suggested he might well skip the Cheltenham Festival this season. With Denman retired, Master Minded's career in doubt and Kauto Star in the twilight of his career, Nicholls has to make sure he looks after what is an obvious future Gold Cup candidate.
Third placed BOBS WORTH (40) showed once more his remarkable ability to rally repeatedly in a race. For a long way it looked like the first two had got away from him but he picked up like he always does, staying on strongly to close in on them and run third by five and a quarter lengths.
Bobs Worth has won all three times he's run at Cheltenham, including at the Festival. It's hard to believe he won't turn this form around with the winner given the more testing nature of that course and the fact it turns left handed (which suits him better according to trainer Nicky Henderson). Add in the stats that I've mentioned and it's surprising the bookies pushed him out to as big as 12-1 for the RSA Chase. He looks very much the one to beat in that contest as I see it.
MR MOONSHINE (22) and TEAFORTHREE engaged in an entertaining early duel for the lead. They surged twenty lengths clear of the rest while running the first six furlongs up to the sixth fence and almost unbelievable 3.1 seconds faster than they went in the King George.
Both horses understandably weakened rapidly in the closing stages. But the fact they were able to jump so boldly at such speed while leading a red hot field by a huge margin tells me they're smart.
Like a lot of chasers that have a habit of going off fast, Mr Moonshine seems best fresh. That is on his first two starts of the season or with a break of at least five weeks thereafter. He's won all four times he's run on galloping tracks in these circumstances.
Teaforthree is a tall, old fashioned staying chasing sort. Back on a more galloping track, preferably on softer ground, he's capable of winning something decent.
KAUTO STAR DOES IT AGAIN
As a punter I'm not too fond of the genuine champion that comes along every ten or fifteen years. They win in all sorts of circumstances and defy seemingly unbreakable statistics. Worse still, they build up a fan base that ensures they almost always start at short odds.
This being so I'm not sure I have anything useful to say following the fifth King George win scored by the remarkable KAUTO STAR (43). The old boy may not be quite the force he once was, but he's still awfully tough to pass, as he showed at Kempton. I'm not going to be the one to say he can't win another Gold Cup.
They took half a second longer to get from the first fence to the finish in the King George than they did in a red hot renewal of the Feltham. But Kauto Star really stepped on the gas from seven out and got home from there 1.4 seconds faster than the novices. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it suggests he put up a slightly better performance than Grands Crus.
I was a little bit worried to see how runner up LONG RUN (43) got outpaced twice by Kauto Star - once when the winner kicked on seven out and again early in the straight. At that point Long Run seemed to have a real fight on his hands to retain second place. But his stamina kicked in and he picked up strongly to cut the gap to just a length and a quarter at the line.
As with Kauto Star, I don't think I have much useful to say about Long Run. He improved markedly from his first run and might well be able to win a second Gold Cup.
The interesting performance for me was put up by fourth placed SOMERSBY (37).
As he has so often before, Somersby got rather worked up and washy with sweat before the race and pulled hard in the early stages. However he settled by about halfway and was actually going better than anything approaching five out. However he hit that fence and three others rather jarringly which cost him valuable energy.
Once the first two had gotten away early in the straight Somersby’s jockey seemed happy to take it easy and settle for fourth place , only riding him along again when it became apparent he might be able to snatch third from the tiring Captain Chris.
My feeling from watching this performance by Somersby is that he might well benefit from having softer ground to slow things down. It could be that a longer distance would have the same effect.
Right now it's hard not to notice that Somersby has won all three times he's run over fences in fields of five runners or less but lost the ten times he's tackled more runners. However I'm not sure that tells the whole story. He tends to jump big and well and has never fallen. It might turn out that he'll do best over the stiff jumps at Aintree or in Ireland.
Somersby is a very smart horse that is clearly capable of winning a Grade 1. Indeed he's reached the first three five of the seven times he's run at the top level. It could well be he's best fresher than he was here. I reckon he has a real shot of taking a Grade 1 chase now that he's running over three miles. The 33-1 and 40-1 you can get about him ante-post for the Gold Cup does appeal to me each way.
SPRINTER SACRE IS BRILLIANT
SPRINTER SACRE (43) put up one of the best performances we've seen from a novice chaser in years when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton. He set s scorching pace and just kept on running.
Sectional times show just how good this performance was. Sprinter Sacre got to the last on the far side (four out) 4.7 seconds before Finians Rainbow did in the Desert Orchid Chase on the same card and extended his advantage to six seconds by the finish.
As with almost all top class two mile chasers Sprinter Sacre is probably best fresh. So I'd like to see a gap of at least five weeks between his remaining starts this term now that he's had a couple of outings.
I can readily understand why the bookies cut Sprinter Sacre to 5-2 for the Arkle. That race is surely his.
In the long run it will be very interesting to see if Sprinter Sacre can stretch his stamina to three miles. That might sound like a silly idea right now seeing that he got beat the only time he tried longer than two miles. But he actually ran a very decent second that day and is built and bred to stay at least two and a half miles.
Sprinter Sacre's two winning siblings have won cross country chases over 2m 5f and 3m respectively and his sire has produced Rubi Ball who won the Prix la Haye Jousselin (the French King George) over 3m 3.5 furlongs.
What gives me confidence that Sprinter Sacre will get longer is the way he sustained such a strong gallop all the way to the line. This being so I wouldn't assume the Champion Chase will be his big target next season if he takes the Arkle this term. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him aimed at the King George.
I suggested after his last start that runner up PEDDLERS CROSS (35) might well regress if he was brought back to the races within five weeks. However it's hard to argue that lack of freshness was the main reason for his wide margin loss here. The winner had him at full stretch right from the start and beat him for pace. This being so it wasn't surprising to hear that he will now be going up in distance.
TETLAMI ONE OF THE TOP NOVICES
The novice hurdle on Kempton's King George card often attracts some of the better novice hurdlers and deserves Graded status. That was certainly the case this year as the winner clocked a time just 0.9 of a second slower from the first to the finish than two of the top hurdlers managed in a strongly run Christmas Hurdle.
The winner was TETLAMI (40) who got the better of a sustained duel with the runner up in a race where they pulled twenty lengths clear of the rest.
You could argue that Tetlami will not recover from this tough race in time to be at his best for the Tolworth Hurdle. But novices don't often regress off a big run and there's no strong pattern in his form to suggest this. Besides he's a strong, good-bodied sort that should be able to take a bit of racing.
I would have thought that Tetlami deserved to be favourite for the Supreme Novices after this smart run, so the 16-1 and 20-1 the bookies are offering looks very tempting.
I know Tetlami missed a season after fracturing a pelvis and that he required an operation to fix a breathing problem. But many of the top jumper have had similar issues and he's had plenty of time to get over them. I certainly wouldn't want to be opposing him at Sandown.
Runner up VULCANITE (38) ran a tremendous race for a hurdling debutante, only giving best in the closing stages after fighting the winner long and hard. He was smart on the flat and is clearly just as good over hurdles.
THE MINACK IS VERY SMART
THE MINACK (40) clocked a good Grade 2 time when winning a Listed handicap chase over three miles at Ascot. Despite the strong gallop he still had his ears pricked in the closing stages, so I suspect he might be able to run even faster.
With the Irish Grand National winner Ebony Jane as his dam, it's not surprising that The Minack is a strong, staying sort that's being considered for the Grand National. But I'm getting interested in his prospects of winning a good conditions chase if the ground was soft enough and the pace strong enough to make it a serious test of stamina.
It's hard not to notice that since losing a point to point first time out The Minack has won all eight times he's run below Graded class but lost all four times he's tackled Graded events. However I don't believe this is due to any lack of ability. He has plenty of that judged by his latest performance. Most likely there is some other factor at work which has held him back.
It could be that The Minack is best on right handed courses. I say this because it looks significant that eight of his twelve starts have been on right handed tracks despite the fact he's racing in a country where only a third of the jumps courses turn that way.
The Minack has won seven of the eight times he's run on right handed tracks since his losing debut but scored just once in four tries on left handed courses. This was in a minor three runner novice chase where one of his rivals effectively put himself out of the race a long way from home.
Persuasive as this is, I like to see some evidence that a horse jumps to the right or is at least kept to the right side of the fences before deciding it prefers right handed courses. I see nothing of the sort with The Minack. So for now I'm going to go with the idea that he needs genuinely yielding or softer ground seeing that his two worst runs by far coincided with the only occasions he encountered good or faster ground.
Runner up VINO GRIEGO (38) kicked clear a long way from home and looked hard to catch when still four lengths clear and going strongly turning in. He eventually ran out of gas but still put up a smart performance.
Vino Griego has won both times he's run with cut in the ground below pattern class on right handed tracks and run big races in defeat in three Listed and Graded events in such circumstances. Now that he's proven he stays three miles the obvious target for him is the Racing Post Chase where his connections could exploit his very lenient official rating.
BIG BUCK'S PUTS UP BEST EVER PERFORMANCE
Up till last week's Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot those of us who rate horses on time were fuzzy about just how good BIG BUCK'S (42) actually is. He's been such a dominant force in staying hurdles that he's tended to have his races won some way out. Couple this with his habit of idling when in front and it's understandable that he'd failed to clock a time that reflected his true level of ability.
This all changed in the Long Walk Hurdle thanks to Dynaste who set a strong pace, kicked clear approaching the straight and forced Big Buck's to work hard to catch him.
The staying hurdles division has always been a weak one, with one horse frequently being much superior to their contemporaries. But the time Big Buck's clocked here suggests he's a bona fide Grade 1 horse.
If he were mine I'd be inclined to skip the Cleeve Hurdle with Big Buck's, and for two reasons. Firstly this was the hardest race he's ever and it may take a while for him to recover. Secondly Dynaste and especially Restless Harry could be much bigger threats in the Cleeve Hurdle if they're ridden with a little more restraint. One or both could give Big Buck's another hard race in a row worryingly close to the Cheltenham Festival.
My ratings suggest that FIVE DREAM (39) basically inherited second place because Dynaste went off so hard and kicked clear a long way out in an attempt to beat Big Buck's. In addition third placed Restless Harry probably did his chances no good by chasing Dynaste who was doing just a bit too much up front.
That said, Five Dream is clearly a decent staying hurdler in his own right. If stablemate Big Buck's skips the Cleeve Hurdle I wouldn't dismiss his chances of taking it.
Third placed RESTLESS HARRY (39) may well be as good as Big Buck's according to my ratings. And I suspect he would have been runner up here but for chasing the strong pace. He's clearly nothing like as good over fences and seems to dislike big fields over hurdles. However he's capable of giving Big Buck's a real race on my ratings if not made to go so fast early. So if a single figure field turns out for the Cleeve Hurdle I'll be very interested in his chances.
Fourth placed DYNASTE (36) has now tired badly late both times he's encountered a strong early pace on a track with an uphill finish. So there remains a question mark over his ability to get home in these circumstances.
Even so Dynaste ran a tremendous race here. He set a strong pace and had Big Buck's at full stretch for quite some way when he kicked for home three out.
At this point I can't say for sure whether Dynaste can show his very best on stiff tracks or when returned to the races in less than five weeks following his first two runs of the season. I don't even know whether he can produce the form he showed over normal hurdles that he produced over the fixed brush hurdles at Haydock. In addition I have a slight concern that he may not be at his best on good ground as he does show a bit of knee action.
However Dynaste has to command real respect for the way he had Big Buck's stretched for so long. So I'm inclined to take a positive view when it comes to all his potential shortcomings.
PENNY MAX CAN WIN SOMETHING BIG
PENNY MAX (39) put up a remarkable performance when winning a three mile novice chase at Newbury. He not only clocked a faster time than the top class Time For Rupert managed over the same trip he also ran the final two and a quarter miles 5.4 seconds faster than Back Bob Back did in the 2m 2.5f chase.
However I play around with the sectional times I end up producing a speed rating that indicates Penny Max is bang there with the top novice chasers. He jumped well and maintained a strong pace so well that his rivals ended up separated by big margins at the finish.
I concede that Penny Max was probably fully extended and is unlikely to run much faster than this. So it could be he'll only end up Grade 2 or 3 class. But he clearly stays really well and improved massively for the step up to three miles.
Penny Max is so lightly raced and so young that it's hard to know what circumstances favour him most. It could be he needs soft ground or a marathon distance to produce this form. Or it may be he can do so on any ground as long as the distance is far enough. I can certainly see him staying further.
TIME FOR RUPERT SHOULD WIN A GRADE 1 THIS SEASON
TIME FOR RUPERT (38) didn't need to come out of second gear to make all the running and win a Graduation chase comfortably at Newbury. He wound up the pace from a mile out after going a smidge below proper racing pace till then. From the Cross fence (five out) he got to the finish in 1m 26.0 seconds compared with the 1m 29.6 taken by Penny Max in the strongly run novice chase earlier on the card. When I adjust my rating to take account of this it suggests he put up a Grade 3 class performance despite visibly having plenty to spare.
On two occasions, once in the RSA Chase and again in the Betfair Chase, Time For Rupert has been flat to the boards throughout when asked to go a searching pace from the start on fast ground. He's won six of the other nine times he's gone beyond two and a half miles and run close seconds the other three times to horses that put up seriously good Grade 1 class performances.
No doubt Time For Rupert is going to get stretched and made to look bad again in very strongly run races on fast ground. But, as I see it, it's only a matter of time before he wins a Grade 1. On genuinely yielding or softer ground, and even on good ground if they don't got too fast early, he can run with anything.
It is tempting to say that runner up THE GIANT BOLSTER (37) dislikes big fields as he's blanked all twelve times he's run in races with ten or more runners but would have won all three of his completed starts in smaller fields before this good run if one half length loss had been a win.
There's certainly good evidence to support this view since he's been hampered and failed to complete several times in big fields and was reluctant to line up in the 18 runner Hennessy Gold Cup. However he has shown almost exactly the same level of performance every time he's completed the course beyond two and a half miles on a galloping track, regardless of field size. So I'm reluctant to make the obvious assumption just yet.
It does seem pretty clear though that The Giant Bolster is best around galloping courses as he's never shown his best form in seven tries around tight tracks.
.....more to come
There was absolutely nothing wrong with the success of BINOCULAR (42) in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He jumped well and outkicked a top class rival to win narrowly in fast time.
However it has to be said that it's now been almost two years since Binocular's brilliant win in the 2010 Champion Hurdle and, for one reason or another, he has not quite been able to match the level of form he showed that day in his subsequent outings - whatever set of speed or handicap ratings you use. Indeed his official handicap rating has fallen eight pounds since his big win.
It could be that trainer Nicky Henderson will manage to get Binocular back to the same form he showed in the Spring of 2010. You can certainly argue that he's being trained to peak for the Champion Hurdle and that this was a big step in the right direction.
My concern is that the stats for the big Cheltenham race suggest we should be wary of horses like Binocular.
In the last 23 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 13 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 13 reached the first three and only one ran better than eighth.
If the same proportion of Champion Hurdlers have attempted the feat in the entire history of the race then 45 bids to win again in non-consecutive years have been made for just a single success. This was by Comedy Of Errors in the 1975 Champion Hurdle.
Comedy Of Errors had run second in the 1974 Champion Hurdle. Binocular was forced to miss last year's event due to that strange episode with drugs used to clear up an infection still being in his system at the time.
You have to wonder just how well Binocular would have done in last year's Champion Hurdle if he'd lined up in light of his thirteen and nine length losses in his subsequent two starts at Aintree and Punchestown. Those poor efforts undermine any confidence supporters of the horse might feel as he warms up for his attempt on hurdling's biggest prize in 2012.
Watching the race it was hard not to feel that neck runner up ROCK ON RUBY (42) might well have got back up to beat Binocular if there had been an uphill finish as there will be at Cheltenham.
Rock On Ruby's physique and pedigree suggest he is more about strength and stamina than Binocular whose turn of foot and tactical speed gave him a serious edge in a small field on fast ground around a tight track.
Despite this Rock On Ruby has a fine record at the minimum hurdles distance. If the photo had gone his way here he would now have won all six times he's run 2 miles since his losing racecourse debut. I see him as one of the top candidates for the Champion Hurdle.
FINGAL BAY CAN RUN FASTER
FINGAL BAY (38) kept his unbeaten record when winning the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle at Newbury. But he idled rather badly after looking set to score by around six lengths, finally having just one length to spare at the line.
This run will surely give jockeys on future rivals of Fingal Bay ideas. They'll realise that the way to beat him is to let him kick clear then come with s sharp late burst while he's idling. No doubt we'll see this attempted sooner rather than later.
There's no question that Fingal Bay can run faster than this. But the runner up BALLYROCK (38) is still a very decent staying novice hurdler that has already won a point to point.
BOBS WORTH THE ONE TO BEAT IN RSA CHASE
One of the most interesting stats in jump racing is that all seventeen winners of the Feltham Novices Chase that have gone on to run in the RSA Chase have lost while five Feltham losers have won the big Cheltenham race.
You can get some sense of why this is so from watching the video of the latest renewal of the Feltham run over Christmas.
The winner GRANDS CRUS (42) has to rate as one of the best two winners in the history of the Feltham along with last year's victor Long Run. But it was obvious that it was his pace gave him the edge over the second and third at Kempton. Around the more testing Cheltenham it's easy to see how they could reverse placings with him as they were both staying on so well.
Grands Crus was able to make up ground quickly to take the lead seven fences out after settling behind the searching early pace. He kicked five lengths clear entering the straight and had enough in reserve to be eased up late to score by over two lengths.
I'm prepared to say Grands Crus had trouble adapting to fixed brush hurdles when he made that abortive trip to France in the Summer. He would have won the other nine times he's run beyond two and a half miles but for twice bumping into Big Buck's and finishing second.
I have a nagging feeling that Grands Crus is a bit light framed to like jumping fences in a big field. Maybe this is why he lost that race in France where he faced nine rivals over fixed brush hurdles (which are basically baby fences). But that is just a suspicion based on insufficient evidence. Right now he's looking like a top class horse that's remarkably versatile.
Runner up SILVINIACO CONTI (41) was clearly very well suited by the strong pace and the step up to two miles. This deep chested sort moved out of the pack travelling ominously well to look a serious threat to the winner with six to jump. However Grands Crus had the pace to open up a gap on him before Silviniaco Conti's stamina enabled him to start clawing back the deficit in the closing sages.
Horses as young as Silviniaco Conti don't have a great record in the RSA Chase. So it was understandable that trainer Paul Nicholls suggested he might well skip the Cheltenham Festival this season. With Denman retired, Master Minded's career in doubt and Kauto Star in the twilight of his career, Nicholls has to make sure he looks after what is an obvious future Gold Cup candidate.
Third placed BOBS WORTH (40) showed once more his remarkable ability to rally repeatedly in a race. For a long way it looked like the first two had got away from him but he picked up like he always does, staying on strongly to close in on them and run third by five and a quarter lengths.
Bobs Worth has won all three times he's run at Cheltenham, including at the Festival. It's hard to believe he won't turn this form around with the winner given the more testing nature of that course and the fact it turns left handed (which suits him better according to trainer Nicky Henderson). Add in the stats that I've mentioned and it's surprising the bookies pushed him out to as big as 12-1 for the RSA Chase. He looks very much the one to beat in that contest as I see it.
MR MOONSHINE (22) and TEAFORTHREE engaged in an entertaining early duel for the lead. They surged twenty lengths clear of the rest while running the first six furlongs up to the sixth fence and almost unbelievable 3.1 seconds faster than they went in the King George.
Both horses understandably weakened rapidly in the closing stages. But the fact they were able to jump so boldly at such speed while leading a red hot field by a huge margin tells me they're smart.
Like a lot of chasers that have a habit of going off fast, Mr Moonshine seems best fresh. That is on his first two starts of the season or with a break of at least five weeks thereafter. He's won all four times he's run on galloping tracks in these circumstances.
Teaforthree is a tall, old fashioned staying chasing sort. Back on a more galloping track, preferably on softer ground, he's capable of winning something decent.
KAUTO STAR DOES IT AGAIN
As a punter I'm not too fond of the genuine champion that comes along every ten or fifteen years. They win in all sorts of circumstances and defy seemingly unbreakable statistics. Worse still, they build up a fan base that ensures they almost always start at short odds.
This being so I'm not sure I have anything useful to say following the fifth King George win scored by the remarkable KAUTO STAR (43). The old boy may not be quite the force he once was, but he's still awfully tough to pass, as he showed at Kempton. I'm not going to be the one to say he can't win another Gold Cup.
They took half a second longer to get from the first fence to the finish in the King George than they did in a red hot renewal of the Feltham. But Kauto Star really stepped on the gas from seven out and got home from there 1.4 seconds faster than the novices. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it suggests he put up a slightly better performance than Grands Crus.
I was a little bit worried to see how runner up LONG RUN (43) got outpaced twice by Kauto Star - once when the winner kicked on seven out and again early in the straight. At that point Long Run seemed to have a real fight on his hands to retain second place. But his stamina kicked in and he picked up strongly to cut the gap to just a length and a quarter at the line.
As with Kauto Star, I don't think I have much useful to say about Long Run. He improved markedly from his first run and might well be able to win a second Gold Cup.
The interesting performance for me was put up by fourth placed SOMERSBY (37).
As he has so often before, Somersby got rather worked up and washy with sweat before the race and pulled hard in the early stages. However he settled by about halfway and was actually going better than anything approaching five out. However he hit that fence and three others rather jarringly which cost him valuable energy.
Once the first two had gotten away early in the straight Somersby’s jockey seemed happy to take it easy and settle for fourth place , only riding him along again when it became apparent he might be able to snatch third from the tiring Captain Chris.
My feeling from watching this performance by Somersby is that he might well benefit from having softer ground to slow things down. It could be that a longer distance would have the same effect.
Right now it's hard not to notice that Somersby has won all three times he's run over fences in fields of five runners or less but lost the ten times he's tackled more runners. However I'm not sure that tells the whole story. He tends to jump big and well and has never fallen. It might turn out that he'll do best over the stiff jumps at Aintree or in Ireland.
Somersby is a very smart horse that is clearly capable of winning a Grade 1. Indeed he's reached the first three five of the seven times he's run at the top level. It could well be he's best fresher than he was here. I reckon he has a real shot of taking a Grade 1 chase now that he's running over three miles. The 33-1 and 40-1 you can get about him ante-post for the Gold Cup does appeal to me each way.
SPRINTER SACRE IS BRILLIANT
SPRINTER SACRE (43) put up one of the best performances we've seen from a novice chaser in years when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton. He set s scorching pace and just kept on running.
Sectional times show just how good this performance was. Sprinter Sacre got to the last on the far side (four out) 4.7 seconds before Finians Rainbow did in the Desert Orchid Chase on the same card and extended his advantage to six seconds by the finish.
As with almost all top class two mile chasers Sprinter Sacre is probably best fresh. So I'd like to see a gap of at least five weeks between his remaining starts this term now that he's had a couple of outings.
I can readily understand why the bookies cut Sprinter Sacre to 5-2 for the Arkle. That race is surely his.
In the long run it will be very interesting to see if Sprinter Sacre can stretch his stamina to three miles. That might sound like a silly idea right now seeing that he got beat the only time he tried longer than two miles. But he actually ran a very decent second that day and is built and bred to stay at least two and a half miles.
Sprinter Sacre's two winning siblings have won cross country chases over 2m 5f and 3m respectively and his sire has produced Rubi Ball who won the Prix la Haye Jousselin (the French King George) over 3m 3.5 furlongs.
What gives me confidence that Sprinter Sacre will get longer is the way he sustained such a strong gallop all the way to the line. This being so I wouldn't assume the Champion Chase will be his big target next season if he takes the Arkle this term. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him aimed at the King George.
I suggested after his last start that runner up PEDDLERS CROSS (35) might well regress if he was brought back to the races within five weeks. However it's hard to argue that lack of freshness was the main reason for his wide margin loss here. The winner had him at full stretch right from the start and beat him for pace. This being so it wasn't surprising to hear that he will now be going up in distance.
TETLAMI ONE OF THE TOP NOVICES
The novice hurdle on Kempton's King George card often attracts some of the better novice hurdlers and deserves Graded status. That was certainly the case this year as the winner clocked a time just 0.9 of a second slower from the first to the finish than two of the top hurdlers managed in a strongly run Christmas Hurdle.
The winner was TETLAMI (40) who got the better of a sustained duel with the runner up in a race where they pulled twenty lengths clear of the rest.
You could argue that Tetlami will not recover from this tough race in time to be at his best for the Tolworth Hurdle. But novices don't often regress off a big run and there's no strong pattern in his form to suggest this. Besides he's a strong, good-bodied sort that should be able to take a bit of racing.
I would have thought that Tetlami deserved to be favourite for the Supreme Novices after this smart run, so the 16-1 and 20-1 the bookies are offering looks very tempting.
I know Tetlami missed a season after fracturing a pelvis and that he required an operation to fix a breathing problem. But many of the top jumper have had similar issues and he's had plenty of time to get over them. I certainly wouldn't want to be opposing him at Sandown.
Runner up VULCANITE (38) ran a tremendous race for a hurdling debutante, only giving best in the closing stages after fighting the winner long and hard. He was smart on the flat and is clearly just as good over hurdles.
THE MINACK IS VERY SMART
THE MINACK (40) clocked a good Grade 2 time when winning a Listed handicap chase over three miles at Ascot. Despite the strong gallop he still had his ears pricked in the closing stages, so I suspect he might be able to run even faster.
With the Irish Grand National winner Ebony Jane as his dam, it's not surprising that The Minack is a strong, staying sort that's being considered for the Grand National. But I'm getting interested in his prospects of winning a good conditions chase if the ground was soft enough and the pace strong enough to make it a serious test of stamina.
It's hard not to notice that since losing a point to point first time out The Minack has won all eight times he's run below Graded class but lost all four times he's tackled Graded events. However I don't believe this is due to any lack of ability. He has plenty of that judged by his latest performance. Most likely there is some other factor at work which has held him back.
It could be that The Minack is best on right handed courses. I say this because it looks significant that eight of his twelve starts have been on right handed tracks despite the fact he's racing in a country where only a third of the jumps courses turn that way.
The Minack has won seven of the eight times he's run on right handed tracks since his losing debut but scored just once in four tries on left handed courses. This was in a minor three runner novice chase where one of his rivals effectively put himself out of the race a long way from home.
Persuasive as this is, I like to see some evidence that a horse jumps to the right or is at least kept to the right side of the fences before deciding it prefers right handed courses. I see nothing of the sort with The Minack. So for now I'm going to go with the idea that he needs genuinely yielding or softer ground seeing that his two worst runs by far coincided with the only occasions he encountered good or faster ground.
Runner up VINO GRIEGO (38) kicked clear a long way from home and looked hard to catch when still four lengths clear and going strongly turning in. He eventually ran out of gas but still put up a smart performance.
Vino Griego has won both times he's run with cut in the ground below pattern class on right handed tracks and run big races in defeat in three Listed and Graded events in such circumstances. Now that he's proven he stays three miles the obvious target for him is the Racing Post Chase where his connections could exploit his very lenient official rating.
BIG BUCK'S PUTS UP BEST EVER PERFORMANCE
Up till last week's Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot those of us who rate horses on time were fuzzy about just how good BIG BUCK'S (42) actually is. He's been such a dominant force in staying hurdles that he's tended to have his races won some way out. Couple this with his habit of idling when in front and it's understandable that he'd failed to clock a time that reflected his true level of ability.
This all changed in the Long Walk Hurdle thanks to Dynaste who set a strong pace, kicked clear approaching the straight and forced Big Buck's to work hard to catch him.
The staying hurdles division has always been a weak one, with one horse frequently being much superior to their contemporaries. But the time Big Buck's clocked here suggests he's a bona fide Grade 1 horse.
If he were mine I'd be inclined to skip the Cleeve Hurdle with Big Buck's, and for two reasons. Firstly this was the hardest race he's ever and it may take a while for him to recover. Secondly Dynaste and especially Restless Harry could be much bigger threats in the Cleeve Hurdle if they're ridden with a little more restraint. One or both could give Big Buck's another hard race in a row worryingly close to the Cheltenham Festival.
My ratings suggest that FIVE DREAM (39) basically inherited second place because Dynaste went off so hard and kicked clear a long way out in an attempt to beat Big Buck's. In addition third placed Restless Harry probably did his chances no good by chasing Dynaste who was doing just a bit too much up front.
That said, Five Dream is clearly a decent staying hurdler in his own right. If stablemate Big Buck's skips the Cleeve Hurdle I wouldn't dismiss his chances of taking it.
Third placed RESTLESS HARRY (39) may well be as good as Big Buck's according to my ratings. And I suspect he would have been runner up here but for chasing the strong pace. He's clearly nothing like as good over fences and seems to dislike big fields over hurdles. However he's capable of giving Big Buck's a real race on my ratings if not made to go so fast early. So if a single figure field turns out for the Cleeve Hurdle I'll be very interested in his chances.
Fourth placed DYNASTE (36) has now tired badly late both times he's encountered a strong early pace on a track with an uphill finish. So there remains a question mark over his ability to get home in these circumstances.
Even so Dynaste ran a tremendous race here. He set a strong pace and had Big Buck's at full stretch for quite some way when he kicked for home three out.
At this point I can't say for sure whether Dynaste can show his very best on stiff tracks or when returned to the races in less than five weeks following his first two runs of the season. I don't even know whether he can produce the form he showed over normal hurdles that he produced over the fixed brush hurdles at Haydock. In addition I have a slight concern that he may not be at his best on good ground as he does show a bit of knee action.
However Dynaste has to command real respect for the way he had Big Buck's stretched for so long. So I'm inclined to take a positive view when it comes to all his potential shortcomings.
PENNY MAX CAN WIN SOMETHING BIG
PENNY MAX (39) put up a remarkable performance when winning a three mile novice chase at Newbury. He not only clocked a faster time than the top class Time For Rupert managed over the same trip he also ran the final two and a quarter miles 5.4 seconds faster than Back Bob Back did in the 2m 2.5f chase.
However I play around with the sectional times I end up producing a speed rating that indicates Penny Max is bang there with the top novice chasers. He jumped well and maintained a strong pace so well that his rivals ended up separated by big margins at the finish.
I concede that Penny Max was probably fully extended and is unlikely to run much faster than this. So it could be he'll only end up Grade 2 or 3 class. But he clearly stays really well and improved massively for the step up to three miles.
Penny Max is so lightly raced and so young that it's hard to know what circumstances favour him most. It could be he needs soft ground or a marathon distance to produce this form. Or it may be he can do so on any ground as long as the distance is far enough. I can certainly see him staying further.
TIME FOR RUPERT SHOULD WIN A GRADE 1 THIS SEASON
TIME FOR RUPERT (38) didn't need to come out of second gear to make all the running and win a Graduation chase comfortably at Newbury. He wound up the pace from a mile out after going a smidge below proper racing pace till then. From the Cross fence (five out) he got to the finish in 1m 26.0 seconds compared with the 1m 29.6 taken by Penny Max in the strongly run novice chase earlier on the card. When I adjust my rating to take account of this it suggests he put up a Grade 3 class performance despite visibly having plenty to spare.
On two occasions, once in the RSA Chase and again in the Betfair Chase, Time For Rupert has been flat to the boards throughout when asked to go a searching pace from the start on fast ground. He's won six of the other nine times he's gone beyond two and a half miles and run close seconds the other three times to horses that put up seriously good Grade 1 class performances.
No doubt Time For Rupert is going to get stretched and made to look bad again in very strongly run races on fast ground. But, as I see it, it's only a matter of time before he wins a Grade 1. On genuinely yielding or softer ground, and even on good ground if they don't got too fast early, he can run with anything.
It is tempting to say that runner up THE GIANT BOLSTER (37) dislikes big fields as he's blanked all twelve times he's run in races with ten or more runners but would have won all three of his completed starts in smaller fields before this good run if one half length loss had been a win.
There's certainly good evidence to support this view since he's been hampered and failed to complete several times in big fields and was reluctant to line up in the 18 runner Hennessy Gold Cup. However he has shown almost exactly the same level of performance every time he's completed the course beyond two and a half miles on a galloping track, regardless of field size. So I'm reluctant to make the obvious assumption just yet.
It does seem pretty clear though that The Giant Bolster is best around galloping courses as he's never shown his best form in seven tries around tight tracks.
.....more to come
Colin Phillips
At the Start
MONTBAZON A SERIOUS CHELTENHAM PROSPECT
I was very impressed with the way MONTBAZON (38) performed when running a close second in fast time to potential Grade 1 winner Colour Squadron on his hurdling debut. He looked a big threat when challenging from two out and pulled nineteen lengths clear of the other nine runners in his attempt to get by Colour Squadron.
Montbazon is a good-bodied, proper national hunt sort that looks built for chasing and longer than the two miles of this contest. His pedigree points the same way too.
Montbazon's dam has only had one previous foal to race and that one appeared just once. However there are plenty of indications that she's an influence for longer distances and chasing. She won a two mile flat race on her only lifetime start and is a full sister to pattern class chaser First De Periji who stayed three miles. She is also a half sister to Saute Au Bois who won a three mile G3 chase in France.
I can readily see Montbazon developing into a serious candidate for the Neptune this season. Next season, when he'll surely be switched to fences, I'd bet on him becoming one of the best novice chasers over two and a half miles plus.
The winner COLOUR SQUADRON (38) made all the running and kept on really well when the runner up tried to get by him. The sectional times show this. He clocked only a tenth of a second faster time from the first hurdle to the third last than Broadbackbob managed in the other novice hurdle but came home from there 5.3 seconds faster.
Colour Squadron's sire Old Vic has produced the winners of fourteen Grade 1 chases but has blanked with all his Grade 1 runners over hurdles so far. Colour Squadron must have a decent shot of putting that right when the contests the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle next time out.
ZAYNAR IS SMART BUT VULNERABLE
Previously I've been unsure about whether ZAYNAR (37) could show his best over fences because he's rather small and light framed for the bigger jumps. At Ascot he showed that he could at least come close to his best hurdles form by winning a Grade 2 novice chase in decent time.
Zaynar set a searching pace and jumped boldly except for the fifth. This is the downhill fence on the side of the course just past the stands. He didn't like the look of this and took it safe and slow, losing about a length and a half and the lead briefly. From there he jumped fast and well, putting his rivals under ever more pressure till striding away up the straight.
The fast pace Zaynar set only told when he had the race in safe keeping. He reached three out seven seconds before the winner of the other novice chase and came home from there 2.6 seconds slower.
I still have doubts about Zaynar over fences. My suspicion is that he helped himself greatly by setting a strong pace. This ensured he avoided the problem he'd encountered in typically slow run novice chases on his previous starts where an accelerating pace meant he was being asked to jump at a speed he found uncomfortable. The soft ground also helped slow things down - as did the small field which ensured he wasn't too crowded at the jumps.
I wouldn't like to bet on Zaynar winning in anything but a single figure field over fences. I'd also be wary of betting him on fast ground or at Cheltenham where the downhill fence might catch him out. The stiffer fences at Kempton, Doncaster, Ayr and especially Aintree would also be a cause for concern as would any trip to Ireland where the fences are even stiffer.
If he were mine I'd be inclined to switch Zaynar to handicap company against experienced chasers to ensure he always gets the strong pace which I suspect is going to prove important to him over fences.
All these provisos make Zaynar very interesting as a betting proposition. He looks sure to hit unfavourable circumstances more often than not, which should build his odds for races where he meets more suitable conditions.
OUR FATHER WOULD HAVE A BIG CHANCE IN LANZAROTE
OUR FATHER (39) clearly appreciated the strong pace and the step up to 2m 6f when taking a hot handicap hurdle at Ascot in very fast time.
Always moving well, Our Father looked to have a tough task on his hands as he set out after the wide margin leader Shoreacres entering the straight as his rival was clearly not stopping. But he steadily closed the gap, went level just before the last and then went clear when ridden out.
This was a tremendous performance by Our Father, especially when you consider he was giving weight to all but one of his much more experienced rivals.
I'm not sure that Our Father is suited by the slow early pace that so often occurs in novice hurdles. So I'd like to see him stepped up to three miles if he goes back into novice company - unless the ground is soft.
As I see it, it makes more sense to keep Our Father to handicap company. He could win the Lanzarote at Kempton easily on this form. He could then be found another handicap as a prep for the Martin Pipe conditional jockeys hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival or better still the Pertemps Final. I'd feel less confident of his chances if he went the obvious route in novice company of the Challow Hurdle then the Albert Bartlett Memorial.
Runner up SHOREACRES (38) kicked on a long way out and powered more than a dozen lengths clear of the rest in his efforts to hold the winner at bay.
The switch back to hurdles was obviously a smart move for Shoreacres. He showed smart form in Bumpers and novice hurdles, running fourth in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper and leading till before the last in the Supreme Novices.
There are indications in the form of Shoreacres that he's best when fresh and on right handed courses. But now that he's running longer distances and back over hurdles I'm wary of assuming that previous patterns in his form will apply.
All I can say right now is that Shoreacres is about two stone lower in the weights than he should be over hurdles judged by the time he clocked here. His connections will surely be able to find a handicap hurdle where they can exploit this soon.
PROSPECT WELLS NEEDS A GREATER TEST OF STAMINA
PROSPECT WELLS (36) started favourite for the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot and ran really well to finish a very close fourth. He visibly had trouble coping with the near sprint finish which followed a moderate early pace. But he was beginning to pick up really strongly in the final 75 yards or so as those in front of him finally began to tire.
Trainer Paul Nicholls said after Prospect Wells previous run that "he’ll be better in a competitive field where they go flat out." That is clearly spot on.
It would be interesting to see how Prospect Wells would do if stepped up to two and a half miles. But he's been trained with the Supreme Novices in mind for so long it would probably be a bad idea to try that experiment right now. He's clearly one of the top novice hurdlers over two miles and has a realistic chance of success in the big Cheltenham race.
MOLOTOF WORTH OPPOSING NEXT TIME
The weakness of the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Hurdle won by Molotof at Ascot can be seen from the sectional times. Despite going only 1.5 seconds faster from the first jump to four out than they did in the staying handicap hurdle they took 5.5 seconds more to get home from there than in the 6f longer race. They went a whopping 10.1 seconds slower from four out than they did in the Listed Bumper (where they went slow to that point).
This being so I have to rate MOLOTOFF (36) a sub par winner for the class even when I take account of the somewhat slow early pace in the longer contest. I'll be opposing him with some confidence next time - especially if he returns to the races in less than five weeks. He finished really tired here, taking 5.6 seconds longer over the last quarter mile than they did in the Bumper. It will surely take him a while to recover from this.
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR IS USEFUL
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (36) won a good Listed Bumper with a bit in hand at Ascot. He won going away in a race that did not look to be run to suit him. He looks like a two and a half mile plus sort. So I think it was only the soft ground that enabled him to get there in a race where they came home 10.1 seconds faster over the last 5.5 furlongs from four out than they did in the Grade 2 novice hurdle.
I imagine Shutthefrontdoor will now be going over hurdles as two miles on faster ground might well not suit him.
OSCAR WHISKY THE TOP HURDLER
I suggested after his last start that trainer Nicky Henderson's statement from last season about OSCAR WHISKY (43) perhaps proving better over two miles when he'd strengthened up and matured might well prove to be true this season.
Last Saturday Oscar Whisky went a long way towards confirming this idea when taking the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham.
The official distance of the race was half a furlong longer than two and a half miles. But a moderate early pace and a sprint finish made it ride much more like a two mile contest.
The most remarkable aspect of Oscar Whisky's performance was the speed he showed over the last half mile or so from the second last. He ran this final part of the race 3.8 seconds faster than stablemate Grandouet managed over a shorter trip in the preceding International Hurdle.
Despite the slow early pace, the time that Oscar Whisky made up in the last half mile meant they clocked just 4.6 seconds slower for the final two miles of his race than in Grandouet's contest. When I invoke my normally reliable sectional timing formula this suggests that Oscar Whisky would have buried his stablemate if he'd faced him in the International Hurdle.
I now rate Oscar Whisky the best hurdler in training following this run. The 20-1 that some bookies are offering about him for the Champion Hurdle looks barking mad to me. Given the pace he showed here there's surely no way Oscar Whisky's connections are going to consider taking on Big Buck's in the World Hurdle. The Champion Hurdle just has to be his target, and I reckon he has a big chance of winning it this time around.
Runner up GET ME OUT OF HERE (42) is a smart hurdler in his own right and looked set to make a fight of it briefly before the winner just kept powering away and he himself began to hang. He still pulled well clear of the rest in his efforts to go with Oscar Whisky and remains capable of taking a Grade 1.
The problem with Get Me Out Of Here is clearly his breathing. Despite having a soft palate operation he choked on the run in when losing the County Hurdle in a photo last season.
If I was going to risk money on Get Me Out Of Here it would be on fast ground over two miles, preferably following a break. In other circumstances he's always going to be at high risk of having breathing problems. Most likely he was having them here and that's why he hung.
GRANDOUET NO CHAMPION HURDLER
I recognise that most people see the race very differently, but for me GRANDOUET (39) receded to a distant blip on my Champion Hurdle radar following his win in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. Despite a strong early gallop and being driven out all the way to the line he failed to clock a time that would give him a serious chance of winning the big race.
Previously I'd made the heinous error of rating Grandouet on what he might have done had he stood up when falling in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Now I'm going to treat the speculative rating of 41 I gave him there as an error and rate him on this performance which tags him as a Grade 2 performer.
Even if he'd run a whole lot faster and won more impressively I would not be interested in Grandouet as a Champion Hurdle prospect. He's just too darned narrow, light-framed and immature for me to believe he can fight his way through the big field that always lines up for Britain's top hurdle race. Bigger rivals are surely going to get in his way and force him to lose ground because he lacks the bulk needed to force his way though gaps between them.
Indeed, even in this eight runner contest jockey Barry Geraghty reported that this very thing happened. He said "I got trapped wider than I'd ideally want and had to switch in."
Grandouet is tough to beat in small fields. But for falling at Wincanton and getting brought down when going well in a Grade 1 at Aintree he would probably have won all eight times he's run in single figure fields. However he's yet to win in a race with ten or more runners in five tries.
I hardly think the Champion Hurdle will be the race where Grandouet finally manages to beat a big field. The stats say it's very difficult for a horse as young as Grandouet to be competitive in that race. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse as young as Grandouet has taken the big race even though 77 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008.
Katchit had massively more experience than most five year old hurdlers. He'd started racing at two and had racked up 28 lifetime starts before winning the Champion Hurdle. Katchit had run in a dozen hurdle races before taking the Champion Hurdle too, just one less than the record for a five year old in the last sixteen years. Grandouet will have only had fourteen runs when he lines up for the Champion Hurdle.
This was a tough race for Grandouet, so I was looking forward to betting against him if he'd turned out again for the Christmas Hurdle on the grounds that he wouldn't recover in time. But trainer Nicky Henderson is too smart for that. He told reporters right after the race "we'll give him a bit of time off now, bring him back and give him one run before the Champion."
Runner up OVERTURN (37) is easy to understand. He's an admirably keen front runner that needs fast ground. However, as we saw in last year's Champion Hurdle, he's not ideally suited to the prolonged uphill finish at Cheltenham.
I imagine Overturn will now be rested till the Spring to avoid unsuitably soft Winter ground. When he comes back he'll be a very interesting contender for the Aintree Hurdle if the going is fast enough.
Third placed BRAMPOUR (37) didn't show quite the same level of form as he had winning the Greatwood Hurdle on his previous start. Trainer Paul Nicholls was reluctant to blame an interrupted preparation caused by puss in a foot. And I found it interesting that he said after the race than he now planned on giving the horse a break.
A lot of horses, especially jumpers are best on their first two starts of the season and then need breaks of five or six weeks between their runs. Since losing on his hurdling debut (as most horses do) Brampour has won three out of three when he's been fresh but lost all three times he hasn't had a break of six weeks plus following his first two starts of the season.
Brampour, like the winner, is only four, so this season he'll almost certainly be too young to have a decent shot in the Champion Hurdle. But next year I can see him being a threat to the top hurdlers.
Fourth placed MENORAH (33) went well for a long way before looking to blow up through lack of fitness in the closing stages - something confirmed later by his trainer. I'm still a little dubious whether he has the size or scope to produce his best over fences. But I've seen far too many below average size chasers excel in novice events to adopt that position with much confidence. And I have to say I like the way trainer Philip Hobbs seems to be gearing his entire campaign around a bid for the Arkle. That's the way you win the really big races.
The fifth horse home SANCTUAIRE (31) travelled really well all the way to the second last. He's a good looking, classy sort but has two obvious problems. One is that the pulls too hard for his own good when seeing too much daylight in small fields like this (he's lost all four times he's run in fields of eight or less). The other is that he had a breathing operation in January and may now have trouble getting home on tracks with steep uphill finishes or quite possibly on soft ground.
Right now I'm actually inclined to think that Sanctuaire can handle stiff tracks and simply needs fields of nine or less and good ground to produce his best. That does make him rather hard to place though. The only races where he's going to encounter big enough fields regularly are handicaps where he'll be lumbered with huge weights. So far the only handicap he's won in five tries was the Scottish Champion Hurdle where he had nearly a stone less on his back than in his four handicap losses.
That said, Sanctuaire clearly has a lot of talent. If he can be found a conditions race with nine or more runners on fast ground I'll be interested in his chances.
..............and even more to come.
I was very impressed with the way MONTBAZON (38) performed when running a close second in fast time to potential Grade 1 winner Colour Squadron on his hurdling debut. He looked a big threat when challenging from two out and pulled nineteen lengths clear of the other nine runners in his attempt to get by Colour Squadron.
Montbazon is a good-bodied, proper national hunt sort that looks built for chasing and longer than the two miles of this contest. His pedigree points the same way too.
Montbazon's dam has only had one previous foal to race and that one appeared just once. However there are plenty of indications that she's an influence for longer distances and chasing. She won a two mile flat race on her only lifetime start and is a full sister to pattern class chaser First De Periji who stayed three miles. She is also a half sister to Saute Au Bois who won a three mile G3 chase in France.
I can readily see Montbazon developing into a serious candidate for the Neptune this season. Next season, when he'll surely be switched to fences, I'd bet on him becoming one of the best novice chasers over two and a half miles plus.
The winner COLOUR SQUADRON (38) made all the running and kept on really well when the runner up tried to get by him. The sectional times show this. He clocked only a tenth of a second faster time from the first hurdle to the third last than Broadbackbob managed in the other novice hurdle but came home from there 5.3 seconds faster.
Colour Squadron's sire Old Vic has produced the winners of fourteen Grade 1 chases but has blanked with all his Grade 1 runners over hurdles so far. Colour Squadron must have a decent shot of putting that right when the contests the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle next time out.
ZAYNAR IS SMART BUT VULNERABLE
Previously I've been unsure about whether ZAYNAR (37) could show his best over fences because he's rather small and light framed for the bigger jumps. At Ascot he showed that he could at least come close to his best hurdles form by winning a Grade 2 novice chase in decent time.
Zaynar set a searching pace and jumped boldly except for the fifth. This is the downhill fence on the side of the course just past the stands. He didn't like the look of this and took it safe and slow, losing about a length and a half and the lead briefly. From there he jumped fast and well, putting his rivals under ever more pressure till striding away up the straight.
The fast pace Zaynar set only told when he had the race in safe keeping. He reached three out seven seconds before the winner of the other novice chase and came home from there 2.6 seconds slower.
I still have doubts about Zaynar over fences. My suspicion is that he helped himself greatly by setting a strong pace. This ensured he avoided the problem he'd encountered in typically slow run novice chases on his previous starts where an accelerating pace meant he was being asked to jump at a speed he found uncomfortable. The soft ground also helped slow things down - as did the small field which ensured he wasn't too crowded at the jumps.
I wouldn't like to bet on Zaynar winning in anything but a single figure field over fences. I'd also be wary of betting him on fast ground or at Cheltenham where the downhill fence might catch him out. The stiffer fences at Kempton, Doncaster, Ayr and especially Aintree would also be a cause for concern as would any trip to Ireland where the fences are even stiffer.
If he were mine I'd be inclined to switch Zaynar to handicap company against experienced chasers to ensure he always gets the strong pace which I suspect is going to prove important to him over fences.
All these provisos make Zaynar very interesting as a betting proposition. He looks sure to hit unfavourable circumstances more often than not, which should build his odds for races where he meets more suitable conditions.
OUR FATHER WOULD HAVE A BIG CHANCE IN LANZAROTE
OUR FATHER (39) clearly appreciated the strong pace and the step up to 2m 6f when taking a hot handicap hurdle at Ascot in very fast time.
Always moving well, Our Father looked to have a tough task on his hands as he set out after the wide margin leader Shoreacres entering the straight as his rival was clearly not stopping. But he steadily closed the gap, went level just before the last and then went clear when ridden out.
This was a tremendous performance by Our Father, especially when you consider he was giving weight to all but one of his much more experienced rivals.
I'm not sure that Our Father is suited by the slow early pace that so often occurs in novice hurdles. So I'd like to see him stepped up to three miles if he goes back into novice company - unless the ground is soft.
As I see it, it makes more sense to keep Our Father to handicap company. He could win the Lanzarote at Kempton easily on this form. He could then be found another handicap as a prep for the Martin Pipe conditional jockeys hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival or better still the Pertemps Final. I'd feel less confident of his chances if he went the obvious route in novice company of the Challow Hurdle then the Albert Bartlett Memorial.
Runner up SHOREACRES (38) kicked on a long way out and powered more than a dozen lengths clear of the rest in his efforts to hold the winner at bay.
The switch back to hurdles was obviously a smart move for Shoreacres. He showed smart form in Bumpers and novice hurdles, running fourth in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper and leading till before the last in the Supreme Novices.
There are indications in the form of Shoreacres that he's best when fresh and on right handed courses. But now that he's running longer distances and back over hurdles I'm wary of assuming that previous patterns in his form will apply.
All I can say right now is that Shoreacres is about two stone lower in the weights than he should be over hurdles judged by the time he clocked here. His connections will surely be able to find a handicap hurdle where they can exploit this soon.
PROSPECT WELLS NEEDS A GREATER TEST OF STAMINA
PROSPECT WELLS (36) started favourite for the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot and ran really well to finish a very close fourth. He visibly had trouble coping with the near sprint finish which followed a moderate early pace. But he was beginning to pick up really strongly in the final 75 yards or so as those in front of him finally began to tire.
Trainer Paul Nicholls said after Prospect Wells previous run that "he’ll be better in a competitive field where they go flat out." That is clearly spot on.
It would be interesting to see how Prospect Wells would do if stepped up to two and a half miles. But he's been trained with the Supreme Novices in mind for so long it would probably be a bad idea to try that experiment right now. He's clearly one of the top novice hurdlers over two miles and has a realistic chance of success in the big Cheltenham race.
MOLOTOF WORTH OPPOSING NEXT TIME
The weakness of the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Hurdle won by Molotof at Ascot can be seen from the sectional times. Despite going only 1.5 seconds faster from the first jump to four out than they did in the staying handicap hurdle they took 5.5 seconds more to get home from there than in the 6f longer race. They went a whopping 10.1 seconds slower from four out than they did in the Listed Bumper (where they went slow to that point).
This being so I have to rate MOLOTOFF (36) a sub par winner for the class even when I take account of the somewhat slow early pace in the longer contest. I'll be opposing him with some confidence next time - especially if he returns to the races in less than five weeks. He finished really tired here, taking 5.6 seconds longer over the last quarter mile than they did in the Bumper. It will surely take him a while to recover from this.
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR IS USEFUL
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (36) won a good Listed Bumper with a bit in hand at Ascot. He won going away in a race that did not look to be run to suit him. He looks like a two and a half mile plus sort. So I think it was only the soft ground that enabled him to get there in a race where they came home 10.1 seconds faster over the last 5.5 furlongs from four out than they did in the Grade 2 novice hurdle.
I imagine Shutthefrontdoor will now be going over hurdles as two miles on faster ground might well not suit him.
OSCAR WHISKY THE TOP HURDLER
I suggested after his last start that trainer Nicky Henderson's statement from last season about OSCAR WHISKY (43) perhaps proving better over two miles when he'd strengthened up and matured might well prove to be true this season.
Last Saturday Oscar Whisky went a long way towards confirming this idea when taking the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham.
The official distance of the race was half a furlong longer than two and a half miles. But a moderate early pace and a sprint finish made it ride much more like a two mile contest.
The most remarkable aspect of Oscar Whisky's performance was the speed he showed over the last half mile or so from the second last. He ran this final part of the race 3.8 seconds faster than stablemate Grandouet managed over a shorter trip in the preceding International Hurdle.
Despite the slow early pace, the time that Oscar Whisky made up in the last half mile meant they clocked just 4.6 seconds slower for the final two miles of his race than in Grandouet's contest. When I invoke my normally reliable sectional timing formula this suggests that Oscar Whisky would have buried his stablemate if he'd faced him in the International Hurdle.
I now rate Oscar Whisky the best hurdler in training following this run. The 20-1 that some bookies are offering about him for the Champion Hurdle looks barking mad to me. Given the pace he showed here there's surely no way Oscar Whisky's connections are going to consider taking on Big Buck's in the World Hurdle. The Champion Hurdle just has to be his target, and I reckon he has a big chance of winning it this time around.
Runner up GET ME OUT OF HERE (42) is a smart hurdler in his own right and looked set to make a fight of it briefly before the winner just kept powering away and he himself began to hang. He still pulled well clear of the rest in his efforts to go with Oscar Whisky and remains capable of taking a Grade 1.
The problem with Get Me Out Of Here is clearly his breathing. Despite having a soft palate operation he choked on the run in when losing the County Hurdle in a photo last season.
If I was going to risk money on Get Me Out Of Here it would be on fast ground over two miles, preferably following a break. In other circumstances he's always going to be at high risk of having breathing problems. Most likely he was having them here and that's why he hung.
GRANDOUET NO CHAMPION HURDLER
I recognise that most people see the race very differently, but for me GRANDOUET (39) receded to a distant blip on my Champion Hurdle radar following his win in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. Despite a strong early gallop and being driven out all the way to the line he failed to clock a time that would give him a serious chance of winning the big race.
Previously I'd made the heinous error of rating Grandouet on what he might have done had he stood up when falling in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Now I'm going to treat the speculative rating of 41 I gave him there as an error and rate him on this performance which tags him as a Grade 2 performer.
Even if he'd run a whole lot faster and won more impressively I would not be interested in Grandouet as a Champion Hurdle prospect. He's just too darned narrow, light-framed and immature for me to believe he can fight his way through the big field that always lines up for Britain's top hurdle race. Bigger rivals are surely going to get in his way and force him to lose ground because he lacks the bulk needed to force his way though gaps between them.
Indeed, even in this eight runner contest jockey Barry Geraghty reported that this very thing happened. He said "I got trapped wider than I'd ideally want and had to switch in."
Grandouet is tough to beat in small fields. But for falling at Wincanton and getting brought down when going well in a Grade 1 at Aintree he would probably have won all eight times he's run in single figure fields. However he's yet to win in a race with ten or more runners in five tries.
I hardly think the Champion Hurdle will be the race where Grandouet finally manages to beat a big field. The stats say it's very difficult for a horse as young as Grandouet to be competitive in that race. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse as young as Grandouet has taken the big race even though 77 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008.
Katchit had massively more experience than most five year old hurdlers. He'd started racing at two and had racked up 28 lifetime starts before winning the Champion Hurdle. Katchit had run in a dozen hurdle races before taking the Champion Hurdle too, just one less than the record for a five year old in the last sixteen years. Grandouet will have only had fourteen runs when he lines up for the Champion Hurdle.
This was a tough race for Grandouet, so I was looking forward to betting against him if he'd turned out again for the Christmas Hurdle on the grounds that he wouldn't recover in time. But trainer Nicky Henderson is too smart for that. He told reporters right after the race "we'll give him a bit of time off now, bring him back and give him one run before the Champion."
Runner up OVERTURN (37) is easy to understand. He's an admirably keen front runner that needs fast ground. However, as we saw in last year's Champion Hurdle, he's not ideally suited to the prolonged uphill finish at Cheltenham.
I imagine Overturn will now be rested till the Spring to avoid unsuitably soft Winter ground. When he comes back he'll be a very interesting contender for the Aintree Hurdle if the going is fast enough.
Third placed BRAMPOUR (37) didn't show quite the same level of form as he had winning the Greatwood Hurdle on his previous start. Trainer Paul Nicholls was reluctant to blame an interrupted preparation caused by puss in a foot. And I found it interesting that he said after the race than he now planned on giving the horse a break.
A lot of horses, especially jumpers are best on their first two starts of the season and then need breaks of five or six weeks between their runs. Since losing on his hurdling debut (as most horses do) Brampour has won three out of three when he's been fresh but lost all three times he hasn't had a break of six weeks plus following his first two starts of the season.
Brampour, like the winner, is only four, so this season he'll almost certainly be too young to have a decent shot in the Champion Hurdle. But next year I can see him being a threat to the top hurdlers.
Fourth placed MENORAH (33) went well for a long way before looking to blow up through lack of fitness in the closing stages - something confirmed later by his trainer. I'm still a little dubious whether he has the size or scope to produce his best over fences. But I've seen far too many below average size chasers excel in novice events to adopt that position with much confidence. And I have to say I like the way trainer Philip Hobbs seems to be gearing his entire campaign around a bid for the Arkle. That's the way you win the really big races.
The fifth horse home SANCTUAIRE (31) travelled really well all the way to the second last. He's a good looking, classy sort but has two obvious problems. One is that the pulls too hard for his own good when seeing too much daylight in small fields like this (he's lost all four times he's run in fields of eight or less). The other is that he had a breathing operation in January and may now have trouble getting home on tracks with steep uphill finishes or quite possibly on soft ground.
Right now I'm actually inclined to think that Sanctuaire can handle stiff tracks and simply needs fields of nine or less and good ground to produce his best. That does make him rather hard to place though. The only races where he's going to encounter big enough fields regularly are handicaps where he'll be lumbered with huge weights. So far the only handicap he's won in five tries was the Scottish Champion Hurdle where he had nearly a stone less on his back than in his four handicap losses.
That said, Sanctuaire clearly has a lot of talent. If he can be found a conditions race with nine or more runners on fast ground I'll be interested in his chances.
..............and even more to come.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
BIG ZEB MAY WELL BE FRESH ENOUGH FOR TIED COTTAGE
Over the years I've banged on repeatedly about my theory that BIG ZEB (38) needs to be fresh. And so far the theory has been validated. Big Zeb has won eight of the nine times he's run in a chase off a break of six weeks or more. His sole loss came in the Champion Chase when second to Sizing Europe who I still maintain stole the race from the front. Since his novice days Big Zeb has lost all five times he's run in a chase off a break shorter than six weeks.
In the circumstances you might think I'm daft to desert such a successful theory and suggest that Big Zeb can win the Tied Cottage Chase barely a month after his recent win in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown. However I find it hard to believe the race can have taken much out of him due to the slow early pace.
Forpadydeplasterer took the field along in a time that was 12.7 seconds slower to the third last than they managed in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase on very similar ground the previous day. They sprinted the remaining half mile to the finish from there a monstrous 5.8 seconds faster than the novices. But the sprint finish happened so late in the race and the early gallop was so slow that my sectional timing formula suggests the runners had plenty of energy left at the finish.
This being so my feeling is that Big Zeb can defy the obvious pattern in his form and win the Tied Cottage on the way to hopefully reclaiming his crown at Cheltenham in the Champion Chase.
NOBLE PRINCE (37) was swamped for finishing speed in a slow run race by the winner for the second time in a row.
It's tempting to conclude that Noble Prince is not going to be able to win a Grade 1 over two miles and needs to go longer. But I'm wary of buying into that idea until he's shown what he can do in a strongly run race over the minimum distance. Having said that my ratings suggest Noble Prince's performance in the Jewson at last year's Cheltenham Festival would have been good enough to win the Ryanair Chase. So I'm not going to object if he goes back up in distance.
BLACKSTARIMOUNTAIN TOUGH TO BEAT IN BIG FIELDS OUTSIDE CHELTENHAM
BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN (40) is rather a quirky horse. He's weighed anchor in front when seeing too much daylight in small fields several times. And he just doesn't seem to get home up the hill at Cheltenham. But he's won five of the last six times he's run in fields of nine or more outside Cheltenham and finished a close second to Grade 1 winner Voler La Vedette in his only loss.
The Grade 1 racing Post Novices Chase over Christmas at Leopardstown set up rather nicely for Blackstairmountain as the field was big enough and went a strong enough pace to ensure he could be covered up to take the lead late on the run in.
Blackstairmountain has now won in Grade 1 company over both hurdles and fences but clearly presents something of a challenge to both his jockey and trainer. However right now there is the option of going for handicaps against experienced runners to ensure he encounters a big enough field. So I'll be interested to see if his connections go that route.
Runner up NOTUS DE LA TOUR (39) suffered from having Bog Warrior run alongside him early going too fast and too free. This caused him to run a couple of seconds faster than he should have over the first three fences before getting eased back by his rider, Robbie Power, who wisely allowed Bog Warrior to charge off on his own before falling at the next fence.
Thereafter Power allowed Baily Green to give him a lead, clearly trying to save something for a big effort which he duly asked his mount for from two out.
Notus De La tour kicked on but couldn't hold the winner's late surge.
My impression from this run and his last is that Notus de La Tour is best over two miles rather than two and a half and is somewhat sensitive to the early pace. If it's as strong as it normally is in the Arkle I'd be doubtful of him lasting home. However in smaller fields around less testing tracks I can see him winning one of the better two mile novice chases.
FOILDUBH (38) rallied on the run in despite clearly tiring from the second last. He keeps on running better and better with each start and I'm not sure we've seen the best of him yet.
LUCKY WILLIAM (37) lost a good deal of ground and momentum with a rather bad mistake two out. But for this he would probably have run third. He's certainly good enough to win a Grade 2 and might just take a Grade 1 novice chase before the season is out. He seems best fresh like a lot of good two mile chasers, so I'd like to see him given breaks of at least five weeks between his runs for the rest of the season.
BE WARY OF LEXUS FORM
The clocks suggests it will be wise to be wary of the form of the Lexus Chase. The winner SYNCHRONISED (37) had every chance to clock a good time but failed to do so. He got from the first jump to third last off a solid gallop 1.8 seconds slower than Last Instalment managed in the big novice chase but only managed to clock the same time from there to the finish despite being ridden out.
I think this was just one of those races where none of the principals ran up to their best. Synchronised would have preferred softer ground. The runner up Rubi Light (34) also needs it softer and many not have stayed. And the third Quito De La Roque is more of a Grand National sort than a Gold Cup candidate.
LAST INSTALMENT IS SMART
LAST INSTALMENT (40) put in an exhibition round of jumping and picked up really strongly to run away with the Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase in fast time. He looks every inch a future Gold Cup candidate on this showing.
The big plus in terms of his RSA Chase prospects is the way Last Instalment coped with the relatively fast ground - something that had been in doubt before.
So far Last Instalment has won all three of his chase starts under rules. I can readily see him giving Ireland a fourth successive win in that race.
SIR DES CHAMPS STAYS UNBEATEN
SIR DES CHAMPS (40) stretched his unbeaten record over jumps to five with an easy win in a Grade 2 novice chase at Limerick.
There was some debate about whether KNOCKFIERNA (37) would have held on if she hadn't run out in the lead when strongly pressed by the winner with two to jump. But sectional times suggest that is most unlikely.
They got from the first to the third last fence in Sir Des Champs' race 0.3 of a second faster than they did in the later handicap chase over the same distance. But Sir Des Champs picked up tremendously from there to cover the remaining distance 5.8 seconds faster despite being eased on the run in. There's no way I can rate this worse than a good Grade 2 performance by the winner, and Knockfierna just isn't that good on all known form. That said, she is clearly useful in anything except really fields where she tends to hit traffic problems.
Sir Des Champs has been a clever jumper from the first time he ran over fixed brush hurdles in France. He has yet to make a significant jumping error. His logical target at Cheltenham is the Jewson where he should have every chance of following up his win at the same meeting last season. If I was making a book on that race I'd have him marked up as favourite, so I have to say the 16-1 you can get about him for the Jewson looks tremendous value.
MIKAEL D'HAGUENET MAINTAINS THE PROGRESS
MIKAEL D'HAGUENET (41) has run better with each successive start since his return to hurdles. And last week, on his fourth run back over hurdles he produced a borderline Grade 1 class performance to beat Western Leader nearly eight lengths in a conditions hurdle over two and a half miles at Punchestown.
Some idea of the merit of Mikael D'Haguenet's performance can be gleaned from the fact that he covered the last two miles 3.4 seconds faster than the well regard juvenile hurdler Shadow Catcher did in a half mile shorter race on the same card.
Mikael D'Haguenet has the build of a steeplechaser but lost all nine times he ran over fences or fixed brush hurdles. He lost his first two runs over standard hurdles when returning from chasing but has now won the other eight.
This run did rather torpedo my theory that Mikael D'Haguenet could prove best over two miles. I say this because Western Leader set a searching pace and Mikael D'Haguenet maintained it to clock a very good time for the two and a half miles.
I'm now inclined to think that Mikael D'Haguenet may actually stay three miles and that his flop over the distance on his return to hurdling was partly due to him getting used to the smaller jumps again and partly to the fast ground. He does show knee action and has run unplaced all three times he's run on good ground.
Runner up WESTERN LEADER (38) was returning off a big lay off but still showed something close to his old form here. His only loss in four previous tries beyond two miles came when he broke down but still ran second in a Grade 1 at Aintree on his last start back in April 2010.
It will be interesting to see Western Leader's official handicap mark is after this run. It could well be low enough to give him a big change of winning a valuable handicap hurdle.
THOMAS EDISON IS USEFUL
THOMAS EDISON (38) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a Bumper horse all season when taking the invariably hot national hunt flat race for four year olds at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting.
Thomas Edison clocked a faster time than the previous best in this race set by Florida Pearl back in 1996. I doubt that he'll prove as good as that one. But the way he came through from last to kick clear of a good field tells me he's going to be competitive in pattern company when he switches back to hurdles.
NO MORE THAN AN EXERCISE GALLOP FOR ZAIDPOUR
The more I see of ZAIDPOUR (33) the more I like. Last Sunday he coasted along through a slow run renewal of the Grade 2 Tara Hurdle at Navan then simply ran away from his rivals when asked to pick up from just before the last. He covered the furlong from the final jump to the finish 1.2 seconds (about six lengths) faster than Boston Bob did in the following Grade 1 novice event over the same distance. And Boston Bob was finishing pretty darned strong - admittedly off a much slower early gallop.
This run was no more than an exercise gallop for Zaidpour. So I'd like to see him take up his entry in the Grade 1 Istabraq Festival Hurdle over Christmas. I think the cut back to two miles will suit him admirably there seeing the pace he showed at Navan and also when destroying his rivals in the Grade 1 Royal Bond over two miles a year ago.
I still say the 25-1 the bookies are offering about Zaidpour for the Champion Hurdle is way too big.
BOSTON BOB AN OBVIOUS CHELTENHAM CONTENDER
BOSTON BOB (39) came off a strong pace to win the Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle in a time good enough to give him a real shot in the Neptune or Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham.
Always moving strongly, this good bodied chasing sort took the lead between the last two and kept on strongly from there.
Boston Bob is built for the bigger jumps but is a well proportioned athletic sort that clearly has a fair bit of pace too. If he hadn't run green when losing in a three way photo on his debut under rules he'd be unbeaten in five starts - one of which was a defeat of the top class Days Hotel in a point to point.
Runner up MOUNT BENBULEN (37) is a tall, deep chested chasing sort that's built for three miles plus. His jockey understandably decided to make it a test of stamina by setting a strong pace. But unfortunately this gave Mount Benbulen the option of correcting himself at the jumps by going out to the right - something he did at most of the obstacles. This cost him arguably as much ground as he lost by.
This was the first time Mount Benbulen had been allowed to bowl along in front. So I guess he's going to need to be dropped in again for his next few starts and taught to put in a short one or go long rather then ceding ground by ducking right in order to take off the correct distance from the jumps as he was doing here.
Mount Benbulen is rather top heavy, so I'm not sure whether he can produce his best on good or faster ground. However he is clearly very useful as he'd won the four most recent times he'd completed the course before this, including in a Grade 2.
Next season Mount Benbulen is surely going to be a smart three mile novice chaser. This season I can readily see him winning again in pattern company, especially if he gets soft ground and is given a chance to go longer.
SINDJARA CAN WIN A FIFTH BLUE WIND STAKES FOR OXX
SINDJARA (34) put up a borderline Listed class performance to take a good Dundalk maiden over a mile when I factor in her sub 23 second sprint over the last quarter mile.
In the race Sindjara was always moving along comfortably in third and readily kicked on with a furlong to go to score comfortably. It looked like she could have pulled out a length or two more if she'd had to.
Seeing that she's built and bred for middle distances, this was a smart run by Sindjara - one that marks her out as a potential Oaks trial winner early next season.
For some reason there is only one Oaks trial in Ireland. This is the Salasabil Stakes at Naas which only holds Listed status. Sindjara could go for this race. But, judged on the record of her trainer John Oxx, she's more likely to run against older fillies and mares in the Blue Wind Stakes, a race Oxx has won four times since it was first run in 2001.
As long as she gets the fast ground Oxx says she needs I see Sindjara as having a big chance of giving Oxx a fifth win in the Blue Wind Stakes in May.
Runner up TANNERY (32) is a big, strong, good-bodied, deep-chested filly that is built for a mile and a half plus (her half brother Pheidias is a three mile chaser). She was understandably swamped by the winner for finishing speed after moving up to look a real threat early in the straight. In the last furlong, with the winner having flown and the rest being well beaten, her jockey dropped his hands and allowed her to come home in her own time. I've little doubt Tannery will be winning a maiden next time out. And she should improve markedly over longer, though I wonder if she might need cut in the ground on turf given her size.
RUBI LIGHT IS SOMETHING SPECIAL
RUBI LIGHT (43) put up a tremendous performance to take the John Durkan Memorial last Sunday. The sectional times he clocked for every part of the race up to two from home were massively faster than those in the other two chases on the card. He disputed then set a ferociously strong pace and kept on better than anything to score.
From the first fence to the second last Rubi Light clocked a time 16.4 seconds faster than Crash managed in the novice chase and 16.1 seconds faster than Seabass in the handicap chase. He understandably tired after running so fast. His time from two out to the finish was 31.3 seconds, compared with 28.9 for Crash and 27.5 for Seabass.
The big question now is whether Rubi Light will stay the three miles of the Lexus Chase next time out. So far he's yet to run beyond 2m 5f.
You can point to the obvious fact that Rubi Light tired dramatically and say this suggests he has little chance of staying another half mile. But the thing is he won after forcing or setting a pace that was so strong it caused all his rivals bar Joncol to pretty much grind to a halt and finish far behind.
In addition the whole modus operandi of Rubi Light is that he's rather a lumbering, ungainly sort that does nothing quickly. He needs mud to slow things down, and mud makes a race more of a stamina test.
It's also worth noting that Rubi Light is by Network, the same rather obscure German sire that produced Rubi Ball, one of the top chasers in France over three miles plus.
Network has less Phalaris blood in his pedigree than any horse I've ever seen - Phalaris being the dominant influence for speed in modern pedigrees. So it's not surprising Rubi Ball has won the Prix La Haye Jousselin, sometimes referred to as the French King George, over 3m 3.5f and run second in the Grand Steeplechase de Paris (the French Gold Cup) over 3m 5f.
My thinking is that Rubi Light will stay the three miles in the Lexus. If I'm right and he gets his ground then he should win the race.
Later on I imagine Rubi Light will be steered towards the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Logically he'd have a good chance in that race. The trouble is his big, safe jumping is better suited to the stiffer fences found in Ireland. In addition the going at Cheltenham may well be too fast for him, just like it was last year when he finished a rallying and close third in the Ryanair.
If it did come up genuinely yielding or softer at Cheltenham I'd be rather interested in Rubi Light's Gold Cup chances. But right now I'm a lot more interested in the 5-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Lexus than the 25-1 they're showing for the Gold Cup.
Rubi Light scoped badly and finished distressed according to the vet after finishing far behind at Limerick a year ago. If he hadn't fallen with the race won at Gowran Park two runs back he would have won six of the other seven times he's run over fences on yielding or softer ground, with his sole loss being a good second place to the top class Golden Silver over an inadequate 2m 1f.
Runner up JONCOL (41) had won all five times he's run 2m 4f to 2m 6f before this run. The winner got away from him and everything else three out. But he rallied in an attempt to mount a late challenge, falling short by five lengths.
Joncol is a great big horse that hits the ground too hard to be risked on fast ground. He remains one of the top two and a half mile chasers. He won a very slow run Hennessy Gold Cup over three miles but has lost the other four times he's gone three miles under rules. I still think he's better over shorter.
The searching gallop on heavy ground was too much for TRANQUIL SEA. He simply couldn't keep running and eventually had to be pulled up.
Tranquil Sea won the John Durkan Memorial last year when it featured a slow early pace and a sprint finish. But he's tired to finish unplaced and far back the five other times he's attempted two and a half miles plus in Grade 1 races outside of novice company. I reckon he needs to go back to two miles.
MONKSLAND ONE OF THE BETTER NOVICE HURDLERS
MONKSLAND (37) didn't look totally organised or focused as he came through to lead late and win a good Navan novice hurdle in pattern class time comfortably on his first try over timber. This is not the first time he's run this way. He ran out in a point to point, but for which he might well be unbeaten in three lifetime starts.
Clearly Monksland will stay further than the two miles of this race, though he looks to have plenty of pace and is athletic. I'm thinking he'll hold his own over two miles against the best novice hurdlers on what I saw here.
Equally clearly Monksland can run a good deal faster because he had obvious reserves of energy passing the line.
Trainer Noel Meade reckons good ground would help Monksland which makes him look a decent prospect for the Cheltenham Festival. Meanwhile if he takes up either of his Grade 1 entries in the next couple of weeks I'll be interested in his chances.
Runner up BOMBADERO (36) is clearly much better over hurdles than he was on the flat. He doesn't have the potential of the winner but should frank this form soon. The same is true of third placed TENNIS CAP (36).
BISHOPS WALK SHOULD WIN SOON
BISHOPS WALK (30) was sent off odds on to win a decent Navan Bumper after getting beat a neck by running green on his debut. Unfortunately he went off a little too fast for his own good and paid the penalty.
Bishops Walk actually reached the point where the fifth last would be jumped in a hurdle race 8.5 seconds sooner than they did in the fastest hurdle race on the card. He still looked like he would win turning in but eventually tired to finish a somewhat distant second to the clearly useful Oscars Business.
My suspicion is that Bishops Walk will prove a better horse than the winner when ridden with more restraint, and I rate the winner close to pattern class.
OSCARS BUSINESS (35) doesn't have the size or scope of the winner but she clocked a much faster time than you normally see in this type of race and could well win one of the better national hunt flat races.
Over the years I've banged on repeatedly about my theory that BIG ZEB (38) needs to be fresh. And so far the theory has been validated. Big Zeb has won eight of the nine times he's run in a chase off a break of six weeks or more. His sole loss came in the Champion Chase when second to Sizing Europe who I still maintain stole the race from the front. Since his novice days Big Zeb has lost all five times he's run in a chase off a break shorter than six weeks.
In the circumstances you might think I'm daft to desert such a successful theory and suggest that Big Zeb can win the Tied Cottage Chase barely a month after his recent win in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown. However I find it hard to believe the race can have taken much out of him due to the slow early pace.
Forpadydeplasterer took the field along in a time that was 12.7 seconds slower to the third last than they managed in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase on very similar ground the previous day. They sprinted the remaining half mile to the finish from there a monstrous 5.8 seconds faster than the novices. But the sprint finish happened so late in the race and the early gallop was so slow that my sectional timing formula suggests the runners had plenty of energy left at the finish.
This being so my feeling is that Big Zeb can defy the obvious pattern in his form and win the Tied Cottage on the way to hopefully reclaiming his crown at Cheltenham in the Champion Chase.
NOBLE PRINCE (37) was swamped for finishing speed in a slow run race by the winner for the second time in a row.
It's tempting to conclude that Noble Prince is not going to be able to win a Grade 1 over two miles and needs to go longer. But I'm wary of buying into that idea until he's shown what he can do in a strongly run race over the minimum distance. Having said that my ratings suggest Noble Prince's performance in the Jewson at last year's Cheltenham Festival would have been good enough to win the Ryanair Chase. So I'm not going to object if he goes back up in distance.
BLACKSTARIMOUNTAIN TOUGH TO BEAT IN BIG FIELDS OUTSIDE CHELTENHAM
BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN (40) is rather a quirky horse. He's weighed anchor in front when seeing too much daylight in small fields several times. And he just doesn't seem to get home up the hill at Cheltenham. But he's won five of the last six times he's run in fields of nine or more outside Cheltenham and finished a close second to Grade 1 winner Voler La Vedette in his only loss.
The Grade 1 racing Post Novices Chase over Christmas at Leopardstown set up rather nicely for Blackstairmountain as the field was big enough and went a strong enough pace to ensure he could be covered up to take the lead late on the run in.
Blackstairmountain has now won in Grade 1 company over both hurdles and fences but clearly presents something of a challenge to both his jockey and trainer. However right now there is the option of going for handicaps against experienced runners to ensure he encounters a big enough field. So I'll be interested to see if his connections go that route.
Runner up NOTUS DE LA TOUR (39) suffered from having Bog Warrior run alongside him early going too fast and too free. This caused him to run a couple of seconds faster than he should have over the first three fences before getting eased back by his rider, Robbie Power, who wisely allowed Bog Warrior to charge off on his own before falling at the next fence.
Thereafter Power allowed Baily Green to give him a lead, clearly trying to save something for a big effort which he duly asked his mount for from two out.
Notus De La tour kicked on but couldn't hold the winner's late surge.
My impression from this run and his last is that Notus de La Tour is best over two miles rather than two and a half and is somewhat sensitive to the early pace. If it's as strong as it normally is in the Arkle I'd be doubtful of him lasting home. However in smaller fields around less testing tracks I can see him winning one of the better two mile novice chases.
FOILDUBH (38) rallied on the run in despite clearly tiring from the second last. He keeps on running better and better with each start and I'm not sure we've seen the best of him yet.
LUCKY WILLIAM (37) lost a good deal of ground and momentum with a rather bad mistake two out. But for this he would probably have run third. He's certainly good enough to win a Grade 2 and might just take a Grade 1 novice chase before the season is out. He seems best fresh like a lot of good two mile chasers, so I'd like to see him given breaks of at least five weeks between his runs for the rest of the season.
BE WARY OF LEXUS FORM
The clocks suggests it will be wise to be wary of the form of the Lexus Chase. The winner SYNCHRONISED (37) had every chance to clock a good time but failed to do so. He got from the first jump to third last off a solid gallop 1.8 seconds slower than Last Instalment managed in the big novice chase but only managed to clock the same time from there to the finish despite being ridden out.
I think this was just one of those races where none of the principals ran up to their best. Synchronised would have preferred softer ground. The runner up Rubi Light (34) also needs it softer and many not have stayed. And the third Quito De La Roque is more of a Grand National sort than a Gold Cup candidate.
LAST INSTALMENT IS SMART
LAST INSTALMENT (40) put in an exhibition round of jumping and picked up really strongly to run away with the Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase in fast time. He looks every inch a future Gold Cup candidate on this showing.
The big plus in terms of his RSA Chase prospects is the way Last Instalment coped with the relatively fast ground - something that had been in doubt before.
So far Last Instalment has won all three of his chase starts under rules. I can readily see him giving Ireland a fourth successive win in that race.
SIR DES CHAMPS STAYS UNBEATEN
SIR DES CHAMPS (40) stretched his unbeaten record over jumps to five with an easy win in a Grade 2 novice chase at Limerick.
There was some debate about whether KNOCKFIERNA (37) would have held on if she hadn't run out in the lead when strongly pressed by the winner with two to jump. But sectional times suggest that is most unlikely.
They got from the first to the third last fence in Sir Des Champs' race 0.3 of a second faster than they did in the later handicap chase over the same distance. But Sir Des Champs picked up tremendously from there to cover the remaining distance 5.8 seconds faster despite being eased on the run in. There's no way I can rate this worse than a good Grade 2 performance by the winner, and Knockfierna just isn't that good on all known form. That said, she is clearly useful in anything except really fields where she tends to hit traffic problems.
Sir Des Champs has been a clever jumper from the first time he ran over fixed brush hurdles in France. He has yet to make a significant jumping error. His logical target at Cheltenham is the Jewson where he should have every chance of following up his win at the same meeting last season. If I was making a book on that race I'd have him marked up as favourite, so I have to say the 16-1 you can get about him for the Jewson looks tremendous value.
MIKAEL D'HAGUENET MAINTAINS THE PROGRESS
MIKAEL D'HAGUENET (41) has run better with each successive start since his return to hurdles. And last week, on his fourth run back over hurdles he produced a borderline Grade 1 class performance to beat Western Leader nearly eight lengths in a conditions hurdle over two and a half miles at Punchestown.
Some idea of the merit of Mikael D'Haguenet's performance can be gleaned from the fact that he covered the last two miles 3.4 seconds faster than the well regard juvenile hurdler Shadow Catcher did in a half mile shorter race on the same card.
Mikael D'Haguenet has the build of a steeplechaser but lost all nine times he ran over fences or fixed brush hurdles. He lost his first two runs over standard hurdles when returning from chasing but has now won the other eight.
This run did rather torpedo my theory that Mikael D'Haguenet could prove best over two miles. I say this because Western Leader set a searching pace and Mikael D'Haguenet maintained it to clock a very good time for the two and a half miles.
I'm now inclined to think that Mikael D'Haguenet may actually stay three miles and that his flop over the distance on his return to hurdling was partly due to him getting used to the smaller jumps again and partly to the fast ground. He does show knee action and has run unplaced all three times he's run on good ground.
Runner up WESTERN LEADER (38) was returning off a big lay off but still showed something close to his old form here. His only loss in four previous tries beyond two miles came when he broke down but still ran second in a Grade 1 at Aintree on his last start back in April 2010.
It will be interesting to see Western Leader's official handicap mark is after this run. It could well be low enough to give him a big change of winning a valuable handicap hurdle.
THOMAS EDISON IS USEFUL
THOMAS EDISON (38) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a Bumper horse all season when taking the invariably hot national hunt flat race for four year olds at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting.
Thomas Edison clocked a faster time than the previous best in this race set by Florida Pearl back in 1996. I doubt that he'll prove as good as that one. But the way he came through from last to kick clear of a good field tells me he's going to be competitive in pattern company when he switches back to hurdles.
NO MORE THAN AN EXERCISE GALLOP FOR ZAIDPOUR
The more I see of ZAIDPOUR (33) the more I like. Last Sunday he coasted along through a slow run renewal of the Grade 2 Tara Hurdle at Navan then simply ran away from his rivals when asked to pick up from just before the last. He covered the furlong from the final jump to the finish 1.2 seconds (about six lengths) faster than Boston Bob did in the following Grade 1 novice event over the same distance. And Boston Bob was finishing pretty darned strong - admittedly off a much slower early gallop.
This run was no more than an exercise gallop for Zaidpour. So I'd like to see him take up his entry in the Grade 1 Istabraq Festival Hurdle over Christmas. I think the cut back to two miles will suit him admirably there seeing the pace he showed at Navan and also when destroying his rivals in the Grade 1 Royal Bond over two miles a year ago.
I still say the 25-1 the bookies are offering about Zaidpour for the Champion Hurdle is way too big.
BOSTON BOB AN OBVIOUS CHELTENHAM CONTENDER
BOSTON BOB (39) came off a strong pace to win the Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle in a time good enough to give him a real shot in the Neptune or Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham.
Always moving strongly, this good bodied chasing sort took the lead between the last two and kept on strongly from there.
Boston Bob is built for the bigger jumps but is a well proportioned athletic sort that clearly has a fair bit of pace too. If he hadn't run green when losing in a three way photo on his debut under rules he'd be unbeaten in five starts - one of which was a defeat of the top class Days Hotel in a point to point.
Runner up MOUNT BENBULEN (37) is a tall, deep chested chasing sort that's built for three miles plus. His jockey understandably decided to make it a test of stamina by setting a strong pace. But unfortunately this gave Mount Benbulen the option of correcting himself at the jumps by going out to the right - something he did at most of the obstacles. This cost him arguably as much ground as he lost by.
This was the first time Mount Benbulen had been allowed to bowl along in front. So I guess he's going to need to be dropped in again for his next few starts and taught to put in a short one or go long rather then ceding ground by ducking right in order to take off the correct distance from the jumps as he was doing here.
Mount Benbulen is rather top heavy, so I'm not sure whether he can produce his best on good or faster ground. However he is clearly very useful as he'd won the four most recent times he'd completed the course before this, including in a Grade 2.
Next season Mount Benbulen is surely going to be a smart three mile novice chaser. This season I can readily see him winning again in pattern company, especially if he gets soft ground and is given a chance to go longer.
SINDJARA CAN WIN A FIFTH BLUE WIND STAKES FOR OXX
SINDJARA (34) put up a borderline Listed class performance to take a good Dundalk maiden over a mile when I factor in her sub 23 second sprint over the last quarter mile.
In the race Sindjara was always moving along comfortably in third and readily kicked on with a furlong to go to score comfortably. It looked like she could have pulled out a length or two more if she'd had to.
Seeing that she's built and bred for middle distances, this was a smart run by Sindjara - one that marks her out as a potential Oaks trial winner early next season.
For some reason there is only one Oaks trial in Ireland. This is the Salasabil Stakes at Naas which only holds Listed status. Sindjara could go for this race. But, judged on the record of her trainer John Oxx, she's more likely to run against older fillies and mares in the Blue Wind Stakes, a race Oxx has won four times since it was first run in 2001.
As long as she gets the fast ground Oxx says she needs I see Sindjara as having a big chance of giving Oxx a fifth win in the Blue Wind Stakes in May.
Runner up TANNERY (32) is a big, strong, good-bodied, deep-chested filly that is built for a mile and a half plus (her half brother Pheidias is a three mile chaser). She was understandably swamped by the winner for finishing speed after moving up to look a real threat early in the straight. In the last furlong, with the winner having flown and the rest being well beaten, her jockey dropped his hands and allowed her to come home in her own time. I've little doubt Tannery will be winning a maiden next time out. And she should improve markedly over longer, though I wonder if she might need cut in the ground on turf given her size.
RUBI LIGHT IS SOMETHING SPECIAL
RUBI LIGHT (43) put up a tremendous performance to take the John Durkan Memorial last Sunday. The sectional times he clocked for every part of the race up to two from home were massively faster than those in the other two chases on the card. He disputed then set a ferociously strong pace and kept on better than anything to score.
From the first fence to the second last Rubi Light clocked a time 16.4 seconds faster than Crash managed in the novice chase and 16.1 seconds faster than Seabass in the handicap chase. He understandably tired after running so fast. His time from two out to the finish was 31.3 seconds, compared with 28.9 for Crash and 27.5 for Seabass.
The big question now is whether Rubi Light will stay the three miles of the Lexus Chase next time out. So far he's yet to run beyond 2m 5f.
You can point to the obvious fact that Rubi Light tired dramatically and say this suggests he has little chance of staying another half mile. But the thing is he won after forcing or setting a pace that was so strong it caused all his rivals bar Joncol to pretty much grind to a halt and finish far behind.
In addition the whole modus operandi of Rubi Light is that he's rather a lumbering, ungainly sort that does nothing quickly. He needs mud to slow things down, and mud makes a race more of a stamina test.
It's also worth noting that Rubi Light is by Network, the same rather obscure German sire that produced Rubi Ball, one of the top chasers in France over three miles plus.
Network has less Phalaris blood in his pedigree than any horse I've ever seen - Phalaris being the dominant influence for speed in modern pedigrees. So it's not surprising Rubi Ball has won the Prix La Haye Jousselin, sometimes referred to as the French King George, over 3m 3.5f and run second in the Grand Steeplechase de Paris (the French Gold Cup) over 3m 5f.
My thinking is that Rubi Light will stay the three miles in the Lexus. If I'm right and he gets his ground then he should win the race.
Later on I imagine Rubi Light will be steered towards the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Logically he'd have a good chance in that race. The trouble is his big, safe jumping is better suited to the stiffer fences found in Ireland. In addition the going at Cheltenham may well be too fast for him, just like it was last year when he finished a rallying and close third in the Ryanair.
If it did come up genuinely yielding or softer at Cheltenham I'd be rather interested in Rubi Light's Gold Cup chances. But right now I'm a lot more interested in the 5-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Lexus than the 25-1 they're showing for the Gold Cup.
Rubi Light scoped badly and finished distressed according to the vet after finishing far behind at Limerick a year ago. If he hadn't fallen with the race won at Gowran Park two runs back he would have won six of the other seven times he's run over fences on yielding or softer ground, with his sole loss being a good second place to the top class Golden Silver over an inadequate 2m 1f.
Runner up JONCOL (41) had won all five times he's run 2m 4f to 2m 6f before this run. The winner got away from him and everything else three out. But he rallied in an attempt to mount a late challenge, falling short by five lengths.
Joncol is a great big horse that hits the ground too hard to be risked on fast ground. He remains one of the top two and a half mile chasers. He won a very slow run Hennessy Gold Cup over three miles but has lost the other four times he's gone three miles under rules. I still think he's better over shorter.
The searching gallop on heavy ground was too much for TRANQUIL SEA. He simply couldn't keep running and eventually had to be pulled up.
Tranquil Sea won the John Durkan Memorial last year when it featured a slow early pace and a sprint finish. But he's tired to finish unplaced and far back the five other times he's attempted two and a half miles plus in Grade 1 races outside of novice company. I reckon he needs to go back to two miles.
MONKSLAND ONE OF THE BETTER NOVICE HURDLERS
MONKSLAND (37) didn't look totally organised or focused as he came through to lead late and win a good Navan novice hurdle in pattern class time comfortably on his first try over timber. This is not the first time he's run this way. He ran out in a point to point, but for which he might well be unbeaten in three lifetime starts.
Clearly Monksland will stay further than the two miles of this race, though he looks to have plenty of pace and is athletic. I'm thinking he'll hold his own over two miles against the best novice hurdlers on what I saw here.
Equally clearly Monksland can run a good deal faster because he had obvious reserves of energy passing the line.
Trainer Noel Meade reckons good ground would help Monksland which makes him look a decent prospect for the Cheltenham Festival. Meanwhile if he takes up either of his Grade 1 entries in the next couple of weeks I'll be interested in his chances.
Runner up BOMBADERO (36) is clearly much better over hurdles than he was on the flat. He doesn't have the potential of the winner but should frank this form soon. The same is true of third placed TENNIS CAP (36).
BISHOPS WALK SHOULD WIN SOON
BISHOPS WALK (30) was sent off odds on to win a decent Navan Bumper after getting beat a neck by running green on his debut. Unfortunately he went off a little too fast for his own good and paid the penalty.
Bishops Walk actually reached the point where the fifth last would be jumped in a hurdle race 8.5 seconds sooner than they did in the fastest hurdle race on the card. He still looked like he would win turning in but eventually tired to finish a somewhat distant second to the clearly useful Oscars Business.
My suspicion is that Bishops Walk will prove a better horse than the winner when ridden with more restraint, and I rate the winner close to pattern class.
OSCARS BUSINESS (35) doesn't have the size or scope of the winner but she clocked a much faster time than you normally see in this type of race and could well win one of the better national hunt flat races.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
OSCAR WHISKY CAN BEAT BIG BUCK'S
OSCAR WHISKY (37) is the fastest hurdler in training on my ratings. So it's no big surprise he was sixteen to one on to win a Jumpers Bumper at Kempton, which he did in good style.
Nicky Henderson's charge was always moving well in third and picked up strongly in the closing stages to cover the final three furlongs in just 36.1 seconds. That's quite something for a national hunt horse and two seconds faster than Kasbadali managed off only a slightly faster early pace in the quickest race on the same card.
It was only a Listed class performance on the clock. But Oscar Whisky passed the post flying and full of run. It was an ideal preparation for Cheltenham.
As a punter I still wish Oscar Whisky would run in the Champion Hurdle because he's clearly improved since last season and I'd bet on him winning the race instead of running third this time around. But I can see the logic of shooting for the World Hurdle. If he stays the distance he will have a terrific chance of beating Big Buck's.
The one chink in the armour of Big Buck's is his lack of acceleration. It could be that he can produce a faster finish than he's had to so far. But I can't see him putting together a series of twelve second furlongs towards the end of a race as Oscar Whisky did here.
Oscar Whisky is certainly built and bred to stay three miles, and he would have won all five times he's run two and a half miles plus but for tipping up at the last when looking set to win at Ascot earlier this season. He looks over-priced at 5-1 for the World Hurdle to me. I'd rate him more like a 2-1 shot.
Runner up SIR HARRY ORMESHER (36) looked a threat to the winner as he moved up to challenge early in the straight. He couldn't cope with Oscar Whisky's acceleration but pulled clear of the rest to put up a smart performance in his own right.
Sir Harry Ormesher doesn't seem to like Cheltenham but has won seven of his nine completed starts elsewhere on ground that race times indicate was good or faster. (I'm including his impressive win in fast time in that voided race at Doncaster). He looks rather well handicapped on a mark of 144 and must have a fine chance of taking another valuable handicap hurdle the next time he encounters fast ground outside of Cheltenham.
MONTBAZON HAS SPEED AS WELL AS STAMINA
After his promising second to subsequent Tolworth Hurdle runner up Colour Squadron it was inevitable that MONTBAZON (37) would start at cramped odds to win a maiden hurdle over two miles at Plumpton. He won as easily as he should have, but the manner of his success suggests I should re-visit my previous opinion that he's going to prove best over fences and distances beyond two miles.
The early pace was decent at Plumpton and Montbazon had no trouble going with it, cruising along just off the leaders despite knocking the top out of the fifth hurdle.
With three hurdles left to jump we got to see just how much better than his rivals Montbazon was travelling because it was then that his rider, Wayne Hutchinson, allowed him a bit of rein.
The response was immediate. Montbazon surged forward and bounded over the third last hurdle, clearing it with feet to spare but nonetheless gaining about three lengths in the air. Unfortunately he landed with quite a thump and bashed into the eventual runner up, knocking Wayne Hutchinson sideways in the process.
The race was over soon after. Montbazon simply powered further and further clear to win with any amount in hand by fifteen lengths. Even so he still managed to clock a Listed class time.
It's hard to gauge just how good a horse is or what circumstances it best when it outclasses the opposition so comprehensively. But my gut feel from watching this is that Montbazon has the speed and class to be have a realistic chance in the Supreme Novices if he's kept to two miles.
I concede that Montbazon was novicey at several of the jumps and showed clear signs of inexperience when over-reacting to the brakes being taken off three out. But I suspect it was the weakness of the opposition that caused him to lose focus more than anything.
It will be very interesting to see Montbazon perform in the Listed novice hurdle at Exeter in a couple of weeks that will act as his prep for the Cheltenham Festival. Spirit Son won that race on his way to running second in the Supreme Novices last year.
There's little doubt that Montbazon will win at Exeter. I just hope there's something in the line up that will push him a bit harder than was the case at Plumpton. Then we'll get a better idea of just what he may be capable of at the Spring Festivals.
TWO AND A HALF MILES IDEAL FOR THE GIANT BOLSTER
THE GIANT BOLSTER (40) set a strong pace and just kept on going to run away with a Grade 3 handicap chase over 2m 5f at Cheltenham by seventeen lengths. He's now won all three times he's completed the course over less than three miles in steeplechases.
My ratings suggest The Giant Bolster is a few lengths shy of what's needed to win the Ryanair. But his jumping has often been dodgy when he's been crowded at a fence in big fields (indeed he was a bit sketchy at a few jumps here to halfway). So I think the smaller field of the Ryanair will suit him better than the William Hill Festival Plate where a bigger field is almost certain.
MIDNIGHT CHASE NOT A TOTAL IMPOSSIBILITY FOR GOLD CUP
MIDNIGHT CHASE (41) went a fair gallop when winning the Argento Chase at Cheltenham. But the clock shows he was still allowed a fairly soft lead. This enabled him to come home from two out 1.4 seconds faster than The Giant Bolster did in the four and a half furlong shorter Grade 3.
This was the seventh time Midnight Chase has won in his eight most recent starts on good to soft or faster ground. His sole loss came in last year's Gold Cup where he ran a decent fifth.
As his trainer says “He is the sort of horse who needs things to go his way." So it's unlikely that he'll be able to show this level of form in the Gold Cup. But one of my maxims is that you should never bet on pace. It's just possible he'll once more be allowed his own way up front in the Gold Cup. And if that happens he might just pull off an upset win.
Runner up TIDAL BAY (40) is a great big lumbering beast of a horse that clambers over many fences and often looks awkward and slow. But when he’s fresh and has a decent gallop to run at he’s one of the best jumpers over three miles plus whether he‘s tackling hurdles or fences..
He would probably have won the Argento last year if only the early gallop hadn’t been so slow. Even then he picked up tremendously well up the hill and clearly appreciates the stiff final climb at Cheltenham. This time around he pretty much reproduced that effort in a race again not run to suit him.
Tidal Bay has had a breathing operation before this season, and Nicholls has a tremendous record with horses that have been given one. I'd be wanting to have a saver on him in any race he contests for the rest of this season. If they go fast enough for him early he can run down pretty much anything in the closing stages.
Fourth placed TIME FOR RUPERT (38) was spooked into a slow jump at the first on the far side. It now looks clear that he needs softer ground to slow things down. He lost his hurdles debut but has won five of the other six times he's run on ground Raceform rate 0.35 of a second per furlong slow or slower (softer than yielding in other words). He ran second in seriously fast time in the Cleeve Hurdle in his sole loss.
I still see Time For Rupert as a Grade 1 winner waiting to happen. But I think he's going to need softer ground to pull it off. This being so it's a pity he's not in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown as he'd be likely to get his ground there.
DIAMOND HARRY (37) travelled like much the best horse all the way to four out but began to tread water from there. His jockey said he had a breathing problem which may well be the explanation.
Horses with breathing problems tend to be best on relatively flat tracks as the uphill sections of undulating courses put too much strain on their breathing. In the circumstances it's not too surprising Diamond Harry has run below form the last three times he's run at Cheltenham but won ten of his other twelve starts. It's possible he'll need a breathing operation to come back to his best. But I find it hard to forget how incredibly fast he ran winning last season's Hennessy. So I'm going to be way of opposing him next time he runs on a flatter course.
CAPTAIN CHRIS jumped out very badly to the right and was pulled up after they'd jumped seven fences. No doubt something was amiss. But it should also be borne in mind that trainer Philip Hobbs has said he feels Captain Chris is at his best in the Spring. To date Captain Chris has won six out of six from late February onwards but lost all eight times he’s run earlier in the season.
ANOTHER LIFETIME BEST BY BIG BUCK'S - BUT NOW HE LOOKS VULNERABLE
For the second time in a row, and again thanks to being pressed by Dynaste, BIG BUCK'S (44) put up a career best performance to take the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.
This time around Tom Scudamore on DYNASTE (42) didn't make a premature bid for glory. Instead he delayed his big move until Restless Harry's huge mid race effort began to peter out with two to jump.
Running up to the last Dynaste had Big Buck's stretched just as he had at Ascot, only this time much closer to the finish. He kept on running strongly all the way from there but Big Buck's once more showed he has almost bottomless reserves to catch him and then power seven lengths clear.
This win means Big Buck's has now won all fifteen times he's run over standard UK and Irish hurdles. Like the top class Irish hurdler Mikael D'Haguenet he's clearly not as good over fences or fixed brush hurdles. But over these sort of jumps he is one tough hombre.
However I would not want to take long odds on about Big Buck's winning his fourth World Hurdle despite the obvious merit of this performance.
This season, for the first time, Big Buck's has several serious contenders to deal with at Cheltenham. In addition he has had the two toughest battles of his hurdling career in the run up to the big race. Smart as he is, this has to make him vulnerable.
It's also worth bearing in mind that since Galmoy won the big race as a nine year old back in 1988 only one of the 74 World Hurled runners aged nine or more has succeeded.
Dynaste will need Big Buck's to regress as a result of this run is he is to turn the form around in the World Hurdle. And there are several other very smart horses he'd have to beat in the big race too - notably Mikael D'Haguenet and (if he lines up) Oscar Whisky. Even so he does look rather too big at 14-1 with the bookies.
Fourth placed RESTLESS HARRY (37) made a huge mid-race move when he improved to dispute the lead and took the field along 3.2 seconds faster from the seventh to three out than they went in the Grade 3 class handicap hurdle over 2m 1f later on the card. The effort told and he tired rather badly up the hill.
It now looks clear that Restless Harry does not get three miles at Cheltenham. He's tired and been beaten all five times he's tried.
It also looks likely, given his below average stature and sometimes hesitant jumping that it's no coincidence Restless Harry's four wins have all been in single figure fields.
Toss out his Cheltenham runs over 3 miles plus and Restless Harry has won four of the last six times he's run two and a half miles or more in single figure fields and run smart races to finish third to Big Buck's in his two losses. He's a very smart staying hurdler when he gets his conditions.
FINIAN'S RAINBOW SHOULD GO CLOSE IN THE CHAMPION CHASE
I noted after his loss in the King George that SOMERSBY (41) had won all three times he'd tackled chases with five runners or less but lost all ten times he'd faced bigger fields.
Cheekpieces often give a horse the confidence it needs to cope with traffic and crowding. They seem to provide a psychological buffer between a horse and its rivals that make it more comfortable racing in tight quarters.
The application of cheekpieces for the first time certainly seemed to help Somersby in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot where he stayed on strongly to catch the smart Finian's Rainbow.
Somersby pulled hard briefly in the early part of the race but settled when found cover by his jockey soon after and moved really well. He was always close up thereafter but looked set for third place early in the straight until stamina started to become an issue in between the last two fences. Finian's Rainbow looked to have him beat at the last but Somersby stayed on strongly to get up and win going away.
Somersby has completed the course in all fourteen of his chase starts and often jumps big and bold. This suggests that he's not a natural two miler because most of the top two mile chasers get that way by hurdling their fences. This risks a fall but enables them to gain ground at the jumps.
This being so I think trainer Henrietta Knight is right to prefer the Ryanair to the Champion Chase for Somersby. Whether or not he'll handle the likely bigger field there I'm not sure. And to be honest I'm not yet sure small fields are really the key to him. The main reason he's run second and third so many times in top races may well be his lack of acceleration.
What won the race for Somersby here, besides the new equipment, was probably the big move made by GAUVAIN approaching six out.
The pace had been okay but not exceptional up to that point so Noel Fehily on Gauvain decided to make the most of the relatively soft lead he'd enjoyed to that point by kicking for home.
Gauvain had been taken off his feet at some stage and run unplaced the four previous times he'd run in Grade 1 chases over two miles. You could see why here as his jumping went to pieces once he'd increased the gallop. He ballooned the fifth from home in an effort to keep himself safe then crashed to the ground after failing to rise fully at the third last.
Due to his lack of size Gauvain is surely always going to be best in small fields. But he's still a smart horse. Toss out his five abortive runs in two mile Grade 1 events and his remaining chase form in fields of eight or less shows seven wins from ten tries. One of his losses was over the exceptionally stiff fences at Aintree, another was in a race where he fell with the race one and the other was a smart second place finish to the top class Riverside Theatre.
As long as he's kept to longer distances and avoids the stiff fences to be found in Ireland and at Aintree Gauvain will continue to be tough to beat in fields of eight or less.
Gauvain's injection of pace so far from home made the race more of a stamina test than it would otherwise have been. This helped Somersby and probably hurt the chances of FINIAN'S RAINBOW (41) whose performance suggests strongly that two miles is his optimum distance.
Finian's Rainbow started his chasing career by falling in a point to point and his jumping has continued to be an issue right up until his last start which he nearly threw away with a terrible blunder. Here though he jumped well throughout, even when Gauvain stepped on the gas from six out.
Running up to the last Finian's Rainbow was moving best and had an advantage of nearly two lengths. But Gauvain's early kick for home, the uphill finish, the yielding ground and the fact the race was a furlong longer than two miles combined to make Finian's Rainbow tire enough for Somersby to catch him.
Now that Finian's Rainbow has learned to jump properly I see him as a very strong contender for the Champion Chase.
Eight of the last nine renewals of the Champion Chase have gone to horses with fewer chase starts to their names than Sizing Europe and Big Zeb, the two market leaders. Of all the likely runners in the big race Finian's Rainbow fits the profile of a relatively lightly raced improver - the kind of horse that seems most favoured by the event. With faster ground likely at Cheltenham and a furlong less to travel I think he's a decent bet at the currently available 7-1.
Third placed AL FEROF (39) was attempting to become the first novice chaser to beat experienced rivals in a Grade 1 two mile chase in at least sixteen years (as far back as I can trace). The first two got away from him in the closing stages but it was a good effort on his part to finish third.
Al Ferof is not that big, so it was probably a smart move on the part of his jockey, Ruby Walsh, to keep him wide of the other runners to get a clear run at all the fences.
It's tough to see Al Ferof winning at the top level over fences. The field for the Arkle will almost certainly be big enough to ensure he's crowded by bigger rivals at the fences and have difficulty jumping them as a result. The fences at Aintree and Punchestown are probably going to be too stiff for him.
If he were mine I'd be skipping the Spring festivals with Al Ferof and look for some slightly lower class contests with small fields instead.
OSCAR WHISKY (37) is the fastest hurdler in training on my ratings. So it's no big surprise he was sixteen to one on to win a Jumpers Bumper at Kempton, which he did in good style.
Nicky Henderson's charge was always moving well in third and picked up strongly in the closing stages to cover the final three furlongs in just 36.1 seconds. That's quite something for a national hunt horse and two seconds faster than Kasbadali managed off only a slightly faster early pace in the quickest race on the same card.
It was only a Listed class performance on the clock. But Oscar Whisky passed the post flying and full of run. It was an ideal preparation for Cheltenham.
As a punter I still wish Oscar Whisky would run in the Champion Hurdle because he's clearly improved since last season and I'd bet on him winning the race instead of running third this time around. But I can see the logic of shooting for the World Hurdle. If he stays the distance he will have a terrific chance of beating Big Buck's.
The one chink in the armour of Big Buck's is his lack of acceleration. It could be that he can produce a faster finish than he's had to so far. But I can't see him putting together a series of twelve second furlongs towards the end of a race as Oscar Whisky did here.
Oscar Whisky is certainly built and bred to stay three miles, and he would have won all five times he's run two and a half miles plus but for tipping up at the last when looking set to win at Ascot earlier this season. He looks over-priced at 5-1 for the World Hurdle to me. I'd rate him more like a 2-1 shot.
Runner up SIR HARRY ORMESHER (36) looked a threat to the winner as he moved up to challenge early in the straight. He couldn't cope with Oscar Whisky's acceleration but pulled clear of the rest to put up a smart performance in his own right.
Sir Harry Ormesher doesn't seem to like Cheltenham but has won seven of his nine completed starts elsewhere on ground that race times indicate was good or faster. (I'm including his impressive win in fast time in that voided race at Doncaster). He looks rather well handicapped on a mark of 144 and must have a fine chance of taking another valuable handicap hurdle the next time he encounters fast ground outside of Cheltenham.
MONTBAZON HAS SPEED AS WELL AS STAMINA
After his promising second to subsequent Tolworth Hurdle runner up Colour Squadron it was inevitable that MONTBAZON (37) would start at cramped odds to win a maiden hurdle over two miles at Plumpton. He won as easily as he should have, but the manner of his success suggests I should re-visit my previous opinion that he's going to prove best over fences and distances beyond two miles.
The early pace was decent at Plumpton and Montbazon had no trouble going with it, cruising along just off the leaders despite knocking the top out of the fifth hurdle.
With three hurdles left to jump we got to see just how much better than his rivals Montbazon was travelling because it was then that his rider, Wayne Hutchinson, allowed him a bit of rein.
The response was immediate. Montbazon surged forward and bounded over the third last hurdle, clearing it with feet to spare but nonetheless gaining about three lengths in the air. Unfortunately he landed with quite a thump and bashed into the eventual runner up, knocking Wayne Hutchinson sideways in the process.
The race was over soon after. Montbazon simply powered further and further clear to win with any amount in hand by fifteen lengths. Even so he still managed to clock a Listed class time.
It's hard to gauge just how good a horse is or what circumstances it best when it outclasses the opposition so comprehensively. But my gut feel from watching this is that Montbazon has the speed and class to be have a realistic chance in the Supreme Novices if he's kept to two miles.
I concede that Montbazon was novicey at several of the jumps and showed clear signs of inexperience when over-reacting to the brakes being taken off three out. But I suspect it was the weakness of the opposition that caused him to lose focus more than anything.
It will be very interesting to see Montbazon perform in the Listed novice hurdle at Exeter in a couple of weeks that will act as his prep for the Cheltenham Festival. Spirit Son won that race on his way to running second in the Supreme Novices last year.
There's little doubt that Montbazon will win at Exeter. I just hope there's something in the line up that will push him a bit harder than was the case at Plumpton. Then we'll get a better idea of just what he may be capable of at the Spring Festivals.
TWO AND A HALF MILES IDEAL FOR THE GIANT BOLSTER
THE GIANT BOLSTER (40) set a strong pace and just kept on going to run away with a Grade 3 handicap chase over 2m 5f at Cheltenham by seventeen lengths. He's now won all three times he's completed the course over less than three miles in steeplechases.
My ratings suggest The Giant Bolster is a few lengths shy of what's needed to win the Ryanair. But his jumping has often been dodgy when he's been crowded at a fence in big fields (indeed he was a bit sketchy at a few jumps here to halfway). So I think the smaller field of the Ryanair will suit him better than the William Hill Festival Plate where a bigger field is almost certain.
MIDNIGHT CHASE NOT A TOTAL IMPOSSIBILITY FOR GOLD CUP
MIDNIGHT CHASE (41) went a fair gallop when winning the Argento Chase at Cheltenham. But the clock shows he was still allowed a fairly soft lead. This enabled him to come home from two out 1.4 seconds faster than The Giant Bolster did in the four and a half furlong shorter Grade 3.
This was the seventh time Midnight Chase has won in his eight most recent starts on good to soft or faster ground. His sole loss came in last year's Gold Cup where he ran a decent fifth.
As his trainer says “He is the sort of horse who needs things to go his way." So it's unlikely that he'll be able to show this level of form in the Gold Cup. But one of my maxims is that you should never bet on pace. It's just possible he'll once more be allowed his own way up front in the Gold Cup. And if that happens he might just pull off an upset win.
Runner up TIDAL BAY (40) is a great big lumbering beast of a horse that clambers over many fences and often looks awkward and slow. But when he’s fresh and has a decent gallop to run at he’s one of the best jumpers over three miles plus whether he‘s tackling hurdles or fences..
He would probably have won the Argento last year if only the early gallop hadn’t been so slow. Even then he picked up tremendously well up the hill and clearly appreciates the stiff final climb at Cheltenham. This time around he pretty much reproduced that effort in a race again not run to suit him.
Tidal Bay has had a breathing operation before this season, and Nicholls has a tremendous record with horses that have been given one. I'd be wanting to have a saver on him in any race he contests for the rest of this season. If they go fast enough for him early he can run down pretty much anything in the closing stages.
Fourth placed TIME FOR RUPERT (38) was spooked into a slow jump at the first on the far side. It now looks clear that he needs softer ground to slow things down. He lost his hurdles debut but has won five of the other six times he's run on ground Raceform rate 0.35 of a second per furlong slow or slower (softer than yielding in other words). He ran second in seriously fast time in the Cleeve Hurdle in his sole loss.
I still see Time For Rupert as a Grade 1 winner waiting to happen. But I think he's going to need softer ground to pull it off. This being so it's a pity he's not in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown as he'd be likely to get his ground there.
DIAMOND HARRY (37) travelled like much the best horse all the way to four out but began to tread water from there. His jockey said he had a breathing problem which may well be the explanation.
Horses with breathing problems tend to be best on relatively flat tracks as the uphill sections of undulating courses put too much strain on their breathing. In the circumstances it's not too surprising Diamond Harry has run below form the last three times he's run at Cheltenham but won ten of his other twelve starts. It's possible he'll need a breathing operation to come back to his best. But I find it hard to forget how incredibly fast he ran winning last season's Hennessy. So I'm going to be way of opposing him next time he runs on a flatter course.
CAPTAIN CHRIS jumped out very badly to the right and was pulled up after they'd jumped seven fences. No doubt something was amiss. But it should also be borne in mind that trainer Philip Hobbs has said he feels Captain Chris is at his best in the Spring. To date Captain Chris has won six out of six from late February onwards but lost all eight times he’s run earlier in the season.
ANOTHER LIFETIME BEST BY BIG BUCK'S - BUT NOW HE LOOKS VULNERABLE
For the second time in a row, and again thanks to being pressed by Dynaste, BIG BUCK'S (44) put up a career best performance to take the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.
This time around Tom Scudamore on DYNASTE (42) didn't make a premature bid for glory. Instead he delayed his big move until Restless Harry's huge mid race effort began to peter out with two to jump.
Running up to the last Dynaste had Big Buck's stretched just as he had at Ascot, only this time much closer to the finish. He kept on running strongly all the way from there but Big Buck's once more showed he has almost bottomless reserves to catch him and then power seven lengths clear.
This win means Big Buck's has now won all fifteen times he's run over standard UK and Irish hurdles. Like the top class Irish hurdler Mikael D'Haguenet he's clearly not as good over fences or fixed brush hurdles. But over these sort of jumps he is one tough hombre.
However I would not want to take long odds on about Big Buck's winning his fourth World Hurdle despite the obvious merit of this performance.
This season, for the first time, Big Buck's has several serious contenders to deal with at Cheltenham. In addition he has had the two toughest battles of his hurdling career in the run up to the big race. Smart as he is, this has to make him vulnerable.
It's also worth bearing in mind that since Galmoy won the big race as a nine year old back in 1988 only one of the 74 World Hurled runners aged nine or more has succeeded.
Dynaste will need Big Buck's to regress as a result of this run is he is to turn the form around in the World Hurdle. And there are several other very smart horses he'd have to beat in the big race too - notably Mikael D'Haguenet and (if he lines up) Oscar Whisky. Even so he does look rather too big at 14-1 with the bookies.
Fourth placed RESTLESS HARRY (37) made a huge mid-race move when he improved to dispute the lead and took the field along 3.2 seconds faster from the seventh to three out than they went in the Grade 3 class handicap hurdle over 2m 1f later on the card. The effort told and he tired rather badly up the hill.
It now looks clear that Restless Harry does not get three miles at Cheltenham. He's tired and been beaten all five times he's tried.
It also looks likely, given his below average stature and sometimes hesitant jumping that it's no coincidence Restless Harry's four wins have all been in single figure fields.
Toss out his Cheltenham runs over 3 miles plus and Restless Harry has won four of the last six times he's run two and a half miles or more in single figure fields and run smart races to finish third to Big Buck's in his two losses. He's a very smart staying hurdler when he gets his conditions.
FINIAN'S RAINBOW SHOULD GO CLOSE IN THE CHAMPION CHASE
I noted after his loss in the King George that SOMERSBY (41) had won all three times he'd tackled chases with five runners or less but lost all ten times he'd faced bigger fields.
Cheekpieces often give a horse the confidence it needs to cope with traffic and crowding. They seem to provide a psychological buffer between a horse and its rivals that make it more comfortable racing in tight quarters.
The application of cheekpieces for the first time certainly seemed to help Somersby in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot where he stayed on strongly to catch the smart Finian's Rainbow.
Somersby pulled hard briefly in the early part of the race but settled when found cover by his jockey soon after and moved really well. He was always close up thereafter but looked set for third place early in the straight until stamina started to become an issue in between the last two fences. Finian's Rainbow looked to have him beat at the last but Somersby stayed on strongly to get up and win going away.
Somersby has completed the course in all fourteen of his chase starts and often jumps big and bold. This suggests that he's not a natural two miler because most of the top two mile chasers get that way by hurdling their fences. This risks a fall but enables them to gain ground at the jumps.
This being so I think trainer Henrietta Knight is right to prefer the Ryanair to the Champion Chase for Somersby. Whether or not he'll handle the likely bigger field there I'm not sure. And to be honest I'm not yet sure small fields are really the key to him. The main reason he's run second and third so many times in top races may well be his lack of acceleration.
What won the race for Somersby here, besides the new equipment, was probably the big move made by GAUVAIN approaching six out.
The pace had been okay but not exceptional up to that point so Noel Fehily on Gauvain decided to make the most of the relatively soft lead he'd enjoyed to that point by kicking for home.
Gauvain had been taken off his feet at some stage and run unplaced the four previous times he'd run in Grade 1 chases over two miles. You could see why here as his jumping went to pieces once he'd increased the gallop. He ballooned the fifth from home in an effort to keep himself safe then crashed to the ground after failing to rise fully at the third last.
Due to his lack of size Gauvain is surely always going to be best in small fields. But he's still a smart horse. Toss out his five abortive runs in two mile Grade 1 events and his remaining chase form in fields of eight or less shows seven wins from ten tries. One of his losses was over the exceptionally stiff fences at Aintree, another was in a race where he fell with the race one and the other was a smart second place finish to the top class Riverside Theatre.
As long as he's kept to longer distances and avoids the stiff fences to be found in Ireland and at Aintree Gauvain will continue to be tough to beat in fields of eight or less.
Gauvain's injection of pace so far from home made the race more of a stamina test than it would otherwise have been. This helped Somersby and probably hurt the chances of FINIAN'S RAINBOW (41) whose performance suggests strongly that two miles is his optimum distance.
Finian's Rainbow started his chasing career by falling in a point to point and his jumping has continued to be an issue right up until his last start which he nearly threw away with a terrible blunder. Here though he jumped well throughout, even when Gauvain stepped on the gas from six out.
Running up to the last Finian's Rainbow was moving best and had an advantage of nearly two lengths. But Gauvain's early kick for home, the uphill finish, the yielding ground and the fact the race was a furlong longer than two miles combined to make Finian's Rainbow tire enough for Somersby to catch him.
Now that Finian's Rainbow has learned to jump properly I see him as a very strong contender for the Champion Chase.
Eight of the last nine renewals of the Champion Chase have gone to horses with fewer chase starts to their names than Sizing Europe and Big Zeb, the two market leaders. Of all the likely runners in the big race Finian's Rainbow fits the profile of a relatively lightly raced improver - the kind of horse that seems most favoured by the event. With faster ground likely at Cheltenham and a furlong less to travel I think he's a decent bet at the currently available 7-1.
Third placed AL FEROF (39) was attempting to become the first novice chaser to beat experienced rivals in a Grade 1 two mile chase in at least sixteen years (as far back as I can trace). The first two got away from him in the closing stages but it was a good effort on his part to finish third.
Al Ferof is not that big, so it was probably a smart move on the part of his jockey, Ruby Walsh, to keep him wide of the other runners to get a clear run at all the fences.
It's tough to see Al Ferof winning at the top level over fences. The field for the Arkle will almost certainly be big enough to ensure he's crowded by bigger rivals at the fences and have difficulty jumping them as a result. The fences at Aintree and Punchestown are probably going to be too stiff for him.
If he were mine I'd be skipping the Spring festivals with Al Ferof and look for some slightly lower class contests with small fields instead.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
.....and there's more:
SMAD PLACE A SMART PROSPECT
SMAD PLACE (40) ran seriously fast to take a Grade 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot and looks sure to be suited by longer. He got stretched when the pace picked up before four out but stayed on strongly to end up a seven length winner.
Smad Place has inherited the same grey colour from his sire as Nacarat, a smart three mile chaser. And he's out of a dam whose two wins were both scored over fences. He's certainly big enough for chasing and that's surely where his future lies.
Right now Smad Place has just been entered for the World Hurdle. The stats say he's too young to have a chance in that race (no horse younger than six has ever won it). But my thinking is that the step up to three miles that race entails would be a good idea.
It's perfectly possible that Smad Place won't be found another opportunity to win this season as he's too young to win a Grade 1 staying hurdle and may end up too high in the weights to win another handicap. Next season though he's going to make a smart three mile novice chaser.
This win came off a break of ten months due to a splint problem, and it could be that Smad Place is going to prove best fresh, just like Nacarat. All three of his wins to date and his Grade 1 third have followed absences of six weeks or more.
It may also be that Smad Place turns out to be best on yielding or softer ground as his trainer has suggested. Right now it's too early to be sure. All I can say is that he has the potential to win a Grade 1 once he's fully mature next term.
GROVE PRIDE A GOOD STAYING CHASER IN THE MAKING
GROVE PRIDE (36) is a big, tall, deep chested, staying chasing sort with a long stride that shows knee action. I can readily see him developing into a Grand National prospect in a couple of seasons.
Last Saturday at Ascot Grove Pride led all the way to win a novice hurdle by fourteen lengths despite being eased in the last thirty yards.
Grove Pride led all the way with his ears pricked, jumping well. Hadrian's Approach was trying to challenge him when capsizing two out but Grove Pride kept on so strongly from there I'm sure he'd have beaten him.
Cut in the ground is probably going to be a necessity for Grove Pride given his size and stride pattern. Chasing is clearly going to be his game. However I'd give him a real shot of winning in pattern company over hurdles if he were stepped up to three miles and raced on soft or heavy ground.
ACCORDING TO PETE A SMART STAYING CHASER IN MUD
The pace was very strong in the Peter Marsh Chase and the going soft. But despite being close up all the way ACCORDING TO PETE (39) had enough left to approach the last with his ears pricked and cover the last nine furlongs a second faster than they managed in the earlier Grade 2 novice chase over half a mile less.
Clearly According To Pete has loads of stamina and excels in mud. He has now won four of the five times he's encountered soft or heavy ground over fences.
If the ground came up soft or heavy for the Grand National I'd be rather interested in According To Pete's chances.
Runner up PEARLYSTEPS (38) is also very useful on soft ground and looks a threat to win a big handicap chase soon when he gets his conditions.
COLOUR SQUADRON THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE SUPREME NOVICES
It's tempting to believe there's something almost magical about certain horse-racing statistics. However close a horse comes to beating them they never quite seem to manage it.
For example Trabolgan came within a short head of achieving the elusive Feltham/RSA Chase double but the stats still show that none of the 17 Feltham winners to run in the RSA have scored.
Last Saturday COLOUR SQUADRON (39) also came close to beating a powerful stat when he lost the Tolworth Hurdle by short head. Specifically he became the 35th runner sired by Old Vic to lose in 35 attempts in Grade 1 or Group 1 company outside of steeplechases. This, despite the fact Old Vic's progeny have scored fourteen Grade 1 wins over the bigger jumps.
However I reckon there's every chance Colour Squadron can overturn this stat, as long as he goes left-handed.
On his two previous hurdle starts Colour Squadron's jockey kept him to the extreme left of every jump. Hurdles are made of six to eight separate panels and Colour Squadron was steered towards the left-most of them. On the few occasions he wasn't quite doing this approaching the obstacle Colour Squadron jumped slightly left to ensure he jumped it as close as possible to the innermost wing.
Significantly, when he'd won his previous start, Colour Squadron only started to kick away from the runner up when he dived left across the track on the run in and had the rail to guide him in the last 75 yards.
In the Tolworth Colour Squadron tackled a right handed track for the first time and it's hard to argue that this didn't cost him victory.
For most of the race Colour Squadron showed no wayward tendencies. He made the running at a steadily increasing pace then produced a big surge between the third and second last which had all his rivals under pressure.
As they entered the straight Colour Squadron was going so much better than anything else he looked likely to win by five or six lengths. His jockey had taken care to steer him towards the stands side rail to ensure he had a left hand rail to run against. But he seemed to become distracted by the rapidly changing scenery on the inside of the track from two out. He appeared to lose focus and slow down.
He went 0.3 of a second slower from two out to the last then they did in the good handicap hurdle then wandered around and slowed dramatically as the track widened and he no longer had a rail on his inside from after the last. He took 1.2 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than they did in the handicap hurdle. In other words he would have scored by five or six lengths if he'd clocked the same time from the last as the winner of the handicap. In doing so he ceded the lead to the tiring Captain Conan and couldn't quite get back up to beat him when rallying late.
If he had won by five or six lengths Colour Squadron would have equalled the biggest speed rating I've given a novice hurdler in recent years and probably be favourite for the Supreme Novices. Instead he's as big as 16-1.
It seems likely that, currently at least, Colour Squadron is at his best when kept to the inside of a left-handed track - like Cheltenham where the Supreme Novices is run.
It's tempting to say that this is a serious weakness which pretty much guarantees Colour Squadron won't win a Grade 1. After all the two best rail huggers of recent years - Racing Demon and Poquelin - both failed to win at the top level despite running second in Grade 1's like Colour Squadron has just done.
But let's not forget that Desert Orchid, one of the best chasers of the last quarter century, had a pronounced right hand bias which didn't stop him winning several Grade 1's - including one going the wrong way around.
As I see it this run puts Colour Squadron within a length per mile of the very best novice hurdlers. Around the left handed turns at Cheltenham he should improve. So I have to rate him the one to beat in the Supreme Novices.
The winner CAPTAIN CONAN (39) is clearly a very good horse too. The burst of speed Colour Squadron produced around the home turn had him in trouble. He tired from before the last but was gifted the lead when Colour Squadron went walkabout on the run in.
Captain Conan is a big, tall, long striding chasing sort that looks built for two and a half miles. However he clocked a fast time over two miles here, is flat bred and was tiring in the closing stages. So I'm wary of jumping to the obvious conclusion that he wants another half mile.
I suspect that, like a lot of horses with his sort of physique, Captain Conan will prove best on relatively flat, galloping courses where he can use his big stride to build up momentum. Around tight turns or on a steeply undulating course like Cheltenham he'll have to continually be slowing down and speeding up which will take more effort than it would with a smaller horse or one that had a shorter stride.
Seeing that he's built for fences and is likely to run on unsuitable tracks I won't be disappointed if Captain Conan fails to win again this season. Next season, when he'll surely be switched to fences, he's going to be very interesting.
Fourth placed PROSPECT WELLS (29) once more showed that he's not suited to a race where there isn't a searching gallop from the start.
Here Colour Squadron took the field along at a gallop 1.8 seconds slower than in the handicap hurdle from the first to the third. He accelerated to go 0.8 of a second faster from the third to three out. And from three out to two out he put in a powerful burst to run three seconds quicker than the handicappers.
The first time Colour Squadron increased the pace Prospect Wells was stretched into making a mistake. When he really stepped on the gas rounding the home turn Prospect Wells was instantly under a full out drive and soon began to lose touch.
Trainer Paul Nicholls reckons that Prospect Wells ran far below his best here because he needs to be fresher. He therefore plans to rest him until the Cheltenham Festival.
It could well be that Nicholls is right. But I still think that a strong pace is a key factor for Prospect Wells. For this reason you could well argue he should be aimed at the County Hurdle rather than the Supreme Novices. He's virtually guaranteed to get a searching early pace in the big handicap whereas it's a toss up whether that happens in the Supreme Novices.
Then again Prospect Wells did run a huge race to get within a neck of Supreme Novices favourite Steps To Freedom at Cheltenham in November despite a slow early pace followed by a sprint finish from three out. So it could be that Cheltenham's steep uphill finish will pull him into the race late however slow they go early in the Supreme Novices.
I should also point out that there's an obvious left-handed pattern to Prospect Wells' form. He's shifted to the left a couple of times and has so far lost all ten times he's run on right handed courses. On right handed tracks over middle distances on the flat and so far over hurdles he would have won five times out of six if that photo against Steps To Freedom had gone his way.
On balance therefore I have to say that Prospect Wells still shapes up as a serious Cheltenham prospect whatever race he goes for at the big meeting - as long as he's kept to two miles. His flat form suggests that a step up to longer distances may not suit him.
QHILIMAR SHOULD WIN SOON
Normally when two horses pull clear of the field and duel at an unsustainably fast early pace both of them tire to finish far back.
This situation occurred in a valuable handicap chase at Sandown last Saturday. QHILIMAR (36) and The Knoxs (23) went clear of their rivals while running about two seconds faster to halfway than Grade 3 class horses should if they're going to produce their best. The pace they went was fast enough to ensure the final time for the race was a couple of seconds slower than it should have been. But, remarkably, despite the Knoxs tiring to finish tailed off last, Qhilimar was still disputing the lead running up to the last before finally tiring to finish third.
Before this loss Qhilimar had won three of the four times he'd gone 2m 6f or more in fields of 12 or less. He's lost all thirteen times he's faced more runners but is clearly useful.
There are some indications that Qhilimar is best fresh since his four wins following his first one have been off breaks of six weeks or more. But I'm inclined to think he'll be fine off shorter turnarounds. So next time he runs in a race with 12 runners or less I'll be very interested in his chances.
Hold Fast has already won over two and a half miles and doesn't seem best fresh like most two mile chasers with his level of ability. He's won four of the five times he's come into a race off a break shorter than eleven weeks. He lost his action, probably due to unsuitably soft ground in his sole loss.
As long as the pace is strong enough and the ground fast enough. Hold Fast should be tough to beat in the valuable handicap chase at Doncaster in a couple of weeks and in the Grand Annual later on.
The winner HOLD ON JULIO (39) was wisely held up off the fast early pace and then allowed to close up as the leaders began to flag approaching the home turn. He was visibly going much better than his rivals at that stage. He led at the last then powered clear for a nine length win.
Hold On Julio has now won six times in a row when you include his point to point form and will obviously be taking a big hike in the weights. However he's borderline Grade 2 class on my ratings, so I reckon he has a real shot of making it seven in a row next time.
HOLD FAST IS SMART
HOLD FAST (40) clocked a fast time when winning a good two mile handicap chase at Sandown. Always close up he was still full of running despite the searching gallop turning in and proceeded to run away from his rivals.
I think the strong pace and stiff uphill finished was a big help to Hold Fast as it made the race more of a stamina test. I can see him getting into trouble over the minimum distance in a more slowly run contest and reckon he's more natural over two and a half miles, perhaps longer.
SMAD PLACE A SMART PROSPECT
SMAD PLACE (40) ran seriously fast to take a Grade 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot and looks sure to be suited by longer. He got stretched when the pace picked up before four out but stayed on strongly to end up a seven length winner.
Smad Place has inherited the same grey colour from his sire as Nacarat, a smart three mile chaser. And he's out of a dam whose two wins were both scored over fences. He's certainly big enough for chasing and that's surely where his future lies.
Right now Smad Place has just been entered for the World Hurdle. The stats say he's too young to have a chance in that race (no horse younger than six has ever won it). But my thinking is that the step up to three miles that race entails would be a good idea.
It's perfectly possible that Smad Place won't be found another opportunity to win this season as he's too young to win a Grade 1 staying hurdle and may end up too high in the weights to win another handicap. Next season though he's going to make a smart three mile novice chaser.
This win came off a break of ten months due to a splint problem, and it could be that Smad Place is going to prove best fresh, just like Nacarat. All three of his wins to date and his Grade 1 third have followed absences of six weeks or more.
It may also be that Smad Place turns out to be best on yielding or softer ground as his trainer has suggested. Right now it's too early to be sure. All I can say is that he has the potential to win a Grade 1 once he's fully mature next term.
GROVE PRIDE A GOOD STAYING CHASER IN THE MAKING
GROVE PRIDE (36) is a big, tall, deep chested, staying chasing sort with a long stride that shows knee action. I can readily see him developing into a Grand National prospect in a couple of seasons.
Last Saturday at Ascot Grove Pride led all the way to win a novice hurdle by fourteen lengths despite being eased in the last thirty yards.
Grove Pride led all the way with his ears pricked, jumping well. Hadrian's Approach was trying to challenge him when capsizing two out but Grove Pride kept on so strongly from there I'm sure he'd have beaten him.
Cut in the ground is probably going to be a necessity for Grove Pride given his size and stride pattern. Chasing is clearly going to be his game. However I'd give him a real shot of winning in pattern company over hurdles if he were stepped up to three miles and raced on soft or heavy ground.
ACCORDING TO PETE A SMART STAYING CHASER IN MUD
The pace was very strong in the Peter Marsh Chase and the going soft. But despite being close up all the way ACCORDING TO PETE (39) had enough left to approach the last with his ears pricked and cover the last nine furlongs a second faster than they managed in the earlier Grade 2 novice chase over half a mile less.
Clearly According To Pete has loads of stamina and excels in mud. He has now won four of the five times he's encountered soft or heavy ground over fences.
If the ground came up soft or heavy for the Grand National I'd be rather interested in According To Pete's chances.
Runner up PEARLYSTEPS (38) is also very useful on soft ground and looks a threat to win a big handicap chase soon when he gets his conditions.
COLOUR SQUADRON THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE SUPREME NOVICES
It's tempting to believe there's something almost magical about certain horse-racing statistics. However close a horse comes to beating them they never quite seem to manage it.
For example Trabolgan came within a short head of achieving the elusive Feltham/RSA Chase double but the stats still show that none of the 17 Feltham winners to run in the RSA have scored.
Last Saturday COLOUR SQUADRON (39) also came close to beating a powerful stat when he lost the Tolworth Hurdle by short head. Specifically he became the 35th runner sired by Old Vic to lose in 35 attempts in Grade 1 or Group 1 company outside of steeplechases. This, despite the fact Old Vic's progeny have scored fourteen Grade 1 wins over the bigger jumps.
However I reckon there's every chance Colour Squadron can overturn this stat, as long as he goes left-handed.
On his two previous hurdle starts Colour Squadron's jockey kept him to the extreme left of every jump. Hurdles are made of six to eight separate panels and Colour Squadron was steered towards the left-most of them. On the few occasions he wasn't quite doing this approaching the obstacle Colour Squadron jumped slightly left to ensure he jumped it as close as possible to the innermost wing.
Significantly, when he'd won his previous start, Colour Squadron only started to kick away from the runner up when he dived left across the track on the run in and had the rail to guide him in the last 75 yards.
In the Tolworth Colour Squadron tackled a right handed track for the first time and it's hard to argue that this didn't cost him victory.
For most of the race Colour Squadron showed no wayward tendencies. He made the running at a steadily increasing pace then produced a big surge between the third and second last which had all his rivals under pressure.
As they entered the straight Colour Squadron was going so much better than anything else he looked likely to win by five or six lengths. His jockey had taken care to steer him towards the stands side rail to ensure he had a left hand rail to run against. But he seemed to become distracted by the rapidly changing scenery on the inside of the track from two out. He appeared to lose focus and slow down.
He went 0.3 of a second slower from two out to the last then they did in the good handicap hurdle then wandered around and slowed dramatically as the track widened and he no longer had a rail on his inside from after the last. He took 1.2 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than they did in the handicap hurdle. In other words he would have scored by five or six lengths if he'd clocked the same time from the last as the winner of the handicap. In doing so he ceded the lead to the tiring Captain Conan and couldn't quite get back up to beat him when rallying late.
If he had won by five or six lengths Colour Squadron would have equalled the biggest speed rating I've given a novice hurdler in recent years and probably be favourite for the Supreme Novices. Instead he's as big as 16-1.
It seems likely that, currently at least, Colour Squadron is at his best when kept to the inside of a left-handed track - like Cheltenham where the Supreme Novices is run.
It's tempting to say that this is a serious weakness which pretty much guarantees Colour Squadron won't win a Grade 1. After all the two best rail huggers of recent years - Racing Demon and Poquelin - both failed to win at the top level despite running second in Grade 1's like Colour Squadron has just done.
But let's not forget that Desert Orchid, one of the best chasers of the last quarter century, had a pronounced right hand bias which didn't stop him winning several Grade 1's - including one going the wrong way around.
As I see it this run puts Colour Squadron within a length per mile of the very best novice hurdlers. Around the left handed turns at Cheltenham he should improve. So I have to rate him the one to beat in the Supreme Novices.
The winner CAPTAIN CONAN (39) is clearly a very good horse too. The burst of speed Colour Squadron produced around the home turn had him in trouble. He tired from before the last but was gifted the lead when Colour Squadron went walkabout on the run in.
Captain Conan is a big, tall, long striding chasing sort that looks built for two and a half miles. However he clocked a fast time over two miles here, is flat bred and was tiring in the closing stages. So I'm wary of jumping to the obvious conclusion that he wants another half mile.
I suspect that, like a lot of horses with his sort of physique, Captain Conan will prove best on relatively flat, galloping courses where he can use his big stride to build up momentum. Around tight turns or on a steeply undulating course like Cheltenham he'll have to continually be slowing down and speeding up which will take more effort than it would with a smaller horse or one that had a shorter stride.
Seeing that he's built for fences and is likely to run on unsuitable tracks I won't be disappointed if Captain Conan fails to win again this season. Next season, when he'll surely be switched to fences, he's going to be very interesting.
Fourth placed PROSPECT WELLS (29) once more showed that he's not suited to a race where there isn't a searching gallop from the start.
Here Colour Squadron took the field along at a gallop 1.8 seconds slower than in the handicap hurdle from the first to the third. He accelerated to go 0.8 of a second faster from the third to three out. And from three out to two out he put in a powerful burst to run three seconds quicker than the handicappers.
The first time Colour Squadron increased the pace Prospect Wells was stretched into making a mistake. When he really stepped on the gas rounding the home turn Prospect Wells was instantly under a full out drive and soon began to lose touch.
Trainer Paul Nicholls reckons that Prospect Wells ran far below his best here because he needs to be fresher. He therefore plans to rest him until the Cheltenham Festival.
It could well be that Nicholls is right. But I still think that a strong pace is a key factor for Prospect Wells. For this reason you could well argue he should be aimed at the County Hurdle rather than the Supreme Novices. He's virtually guaranteed to get a searching early pace in the big handicap whereas it's a toss up whether that happens in the Supreme Novices.
Then again Prospect Wells did run a huge race to get within a neck of Supreme Novices favourite Steps To Freedom at Cheltenham in November despite a slow early pace followed by a sprint finish from three out. So it could be that Cheltenham's steep uphill finish will pull him into the race late however slow they go early in the Supreme Novices.
I should also point out that there's an obvious left-handed pattern to Prospect Wells' form. He's shifted to the left a couple of times and has so far lost all ten times he's run on right handed courses. On right handed tracks over middle distances on the flat and so far over hurdles he would have won five times out of six if that photo against Steps To Freedom had gone his way.
On balance therefore I have to say that Prospect Wells still shapes up as a serious Cheltenham prospect whatever race he goes for at the big meeting - as long as he's kept to two miles. His flat form suggests that a step up to longer distances may not suit him.
QHILIMAR SHOULD WIN SOON
Normally when two horses pull clear of the field and duel at an unsustainably fast early pace both of them tire to finish far back.
This situation occurred in a valuable handicap chase at Sandown last Saturday. QHILIMAR (36) and The Knoxs (23) went clear of their rivals while running about two seconds faster to halfway than Grade 3 class horses should if they're going to produce their best. The pace they went was fast enough to ensure the final time for the race was a couple of seconds slower than it should have been. But, remarkably, despite the Knoxs tiring to finish tailed off last, Qhilimar was still disputing the lead running up to the last before finally tiring to finish third.
Before this loss Qhilimar had won three of the four times he'd gone 2m 6f or more in fields of 12 or less. He's lost all thirteen times he's faced more runners but is clearly useful.
There are some indications that Qhilimar is best fresh since his four wins following his first one have been off breaks of six weeks or more. But I'm inclined to think he'll be fine off shorter turnarounds. So next time he runs in a race with 12 runners or less I'll be very interested in his chances.
Hold Fast has already won over two and a half miles and doesn't seem best fresh like most two mile chasers with his level of ability. He's won four of the five times he's come into a race off a break shorter than eleven weeks. He lost his action, probably due to unsuitably soft ground in his sole loss.
As long as the pace is strong enough and the ground fast enough. Hold Fast should be tough to beat in the valuable handicap chase at Doncaster in a couple of weeks and in the Grand Annual later on.
The winner HOLD ON JULIO (39) was wisely held up off the fast early pace and then allowed to close up as the leaders began to flag approaching the home turn. He was visibly going much better than his rivals at that stage. He led at the last then powered clear for a nine length win.
Hold On Julio has now won six times in a row when you include his point to point form and will obviously be taking a big hike in the weights. However he's borderline Grade 2 class on my ratings, so I reckon he has a real shot of making it seven in a row next time.
HOLD FAST IS SMART
HOLD FAST (40) clocked a fast time when winning a good two mile handicap chase at Sandown. Always close up he was still full of running despite the searching gallop turning in and proceeded to run away from his rivals.
I think the strong pace and stiff uphill finished was a big help to Hold Fast as it made the race more of a stamina test. I can see him getting into trouble over the minimum distance in a more slowly run contest and reckon he's more natural over two and a half miles, perhaps longer.
On The Bridle
At the Start
He's going to be right about getting Big Bucks beaten one day!!
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's talking **** about Hold on Julio. He won the race at Sandown because he had no weight and could handle the jumping errors. If he runs at Cheltenham I'll be placing laying him to the hilt.
Very Very Ordinary
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 24, 2010
- Messages
- 327
Just a thank you for posting these Colin, facinating stuff
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Cheers, VVO, he has a way of provoking discussion at least.
links781
Journeyman
These make enjoyable reading colin.I agree with him on a lot of his views......time to look in the mirror methinks.:blink:
Colin Phillips
At the Start
CRISTAL BONUS IS A GRADE 1 PERFORMER
CRISTAL BONUS (40) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a novice chaser this season when winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton. And sectional times show he did so in a rather unusual way.
After taking the field along at a pace two seconds faster from the first jump to the first fence in the straight over the first five furlongs, Ruby Walsh allowed Cristal Bonus to slow down and cover the next ten furlongs four seconds slower than they went in the handicap over the same course and distance. He then picked up strongly to come home from there 2.6 seconds quicker than the handicappers - and a monstrous 6.7 seconds faster than in the Racing Plus Chase (where the early gallop was very fast indeed).
Son after the semi-sprint finish began Cristal Bonus was being pressed for the lead by the runner up. But as he sustained the increased pace he began to go further and further clear. He was still running fast and full of running crossing the line.
This performance rates as Grade 1 class for a novice chaser, and the way Cristal Bonus finished made me think that maybe he could stretch his stamina to three miles around the same course in the King George next year.
The main concern on that score is that Cristal Bonus repeatedly jumped to his left. With only six runners in the race this didn't get him into too much trouble. But he did run well below his best the only previous time he ran right handed in a field of seventeen at Clairefontaine. Trainer Paul Nicholls feels the horse will be better going left handed. Only time will tell if he's right.
Meanwhile Cristal Bonus heads to Cheltenham where he should have a great chance of lading the Jewson.
You could argue that Cristal Bonus has run unplaced the two times he's run at Cheltenham and therefore doesn't like the track. But that was over hurdles. My suspicion is that, like a lot of French imports, he needed more runs to adapt to the flimsier British jumps. He's won five of the last seven times he's run over fixed brush hurdles or fences and finished second in a Grade 1 in one of his losses.
It's still possible that Cristal Bonus is so pacey he won't get home up the hill at Cheltenham. I think he will, but I concede it's a question that's debatable at this point.
SECTIONALS SAY GRUMETI'S TRIUMPH TRIAL BETTER THAN BABY MIX'S
Five of the last ten winners of the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle that went on to run in the Triumph Hurdle won the big Cheltenham race.
I hate going against a statistic as powerful as that one. But I have to say my ratings suggest GRUMETI (38) put up a better trial for the Triumph when winning the Dovecote Novices Hurdle on the same card as the latest Adonis winner BABY MIX (35).
Baby Mix actually ran two seconds faster according to official race times. But he actually only ran a second faster when you time both races from the first jump. And that's purely because they went slow in the first five furlongs of Grumeti's race. Grumeti came home 2.9 seconds faster over the last eleven furlongs and 3.4 seconds faster over the last five and a half furlongs.
I didn't like the way Baby Mix jumped either. He blundered at the third and over jumped the last three in very novicey fashion.
Physically Baby Mix doesn't really compare with Grumeti. He is a light-framed, immature sort whereas Grumeti is a well balanced, good bodied, classy horse with the build for jumping.
I really like the way Grumeti picked up in the closing stages when runner up DODGING BULLETS (37) mounted a persistent challenge. Grumeti just kept pulling out more to the point where the pair pulled twenty lengths clear of their pursuers.
Dodging Bullets had beaten subsequent Grade 1 hurdles winner Hisaabaat on his last flat start and put up a tremendous performance for a horse having his first start over hurdles. He is reportedly going to skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead. But if he does run in the Triumph I'd respect his chances.
NACARAT STILL HAS IT
NACARAT (40) showed he's as good as ever with his win in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton. Restrained in a distant second behind Fiendish Flame, who was going unsustainably fast, he moved into the lead when that one tired, saw off a determined challenged from the runner up and then kept on going to open up an eleventh length gap as he ground to a halt slower than the rest of a tiring field.
Nacarat only seems to have one way of running and that's flat out. So it's understandable that all his wins bar one have come off a break longer than five weeks. He's also straight through the shoulder which means he hits the ground too hard on the downhill sections of undulating courses (which he's been steered clear of since 2009).
All four of Nacarat's Graded wins have been on ground that race times indicate was good or faster. If it comes up fast enough for him at Aintree and he's been rested beforehand (as seems likely) he must have a decent chance of achieving a second successive win in the Totesport Bowl.
FIENDISH FLAME (18) went well clear and ran the first two miles fast enough to win a decent chase over that distance but understandably stopped to get beat 67 lengths. He's won five of the eight times he's run less than three miles off a break of 25 days or less. The tremendous pace he showed here convinces me that he'll be a decent proposition next time he's returned to the races fairly quickly over a shorter distance.
CRISTAL BONUS (40) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a novice chaser this season when winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton. And sectional times show he did so in a rather unusual way.
After taking the field along at a pace two seconds faster from the first jump to the first fence in the straight over the first five furlongs, Ruby Walsh allowed Cristal Bonus to slow down and cover the next ten furlongs four seconds slower than they went in the handicap over the same course and distance. He then picked up strongly to come home from there 2.6 seconds quicker than the handicappers - and a monstrous 6.7 seconds faster than in the Racing Plus Chase (where the early gallop was very fast indeed).
Son after the semi-sprint finish began Cristal Bonus was being pressed for the lead by the runner up. But as he sustained the increased pace he began to go further and further clear. He was still running fast and full of running crossing the line.
This performance rates as Grade 1 class for a novice chaser, and the way Cristal Bonus finished made me think that maybe he could stretch his stamina to three miles around the same course in the King George next year.
The main concern on that score is that Cristal Bonus repeatedly jumped to his left. With only six runners in the race this didn't get him into too much trouble. But he did run well below his best the only previous time he ran right handed in a field of seventeen at Clairefontaine. Trainer Paul Nicholls feels the horse will be better going left handed. Only time will tell if he's right.
Meanwhile Cristal Bonus heads to Cheltenham where he should have a great chance of lading the Jewson.
You could argue that Cristal Bonus has run unplaced the two times he's run at Cheltenham and therefore doesn't like the track. But that was over hurdles. My suspicion is that, like a lot of French imports, he needed more runs to adapt to the flimsier British jumps. He's won five of the last seven times he's run over fixed brush hurdles or fences and finished second in a Grade 1 in one of his losses.
It's still possible that Cristal Bonus is so pacey he won't get home up the hill at Cheltenham. I think he will, but I concede it's a question that's debatable at this point.
SECTIONALS SAY GRUMETI'S TRIUMPH TRIAL BETTER THAN BABY MIX'S
Five of the last ten winners of the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle that went on to run in the Triumph Hurdle won the big Cheltenham race.
I hate going against a statistic as powerful as that one. But I have to say my ratings suggest GRUMETI (38) put up a better trial for the Triumph when winning the Dovecote Novices Hurdle on the same card as the latest Adonis winner BABY MIX (35).
Baby Mix actually ran two seconds faster according to official race times. But he actually only ran a second faster when you time both races from the first jump. And that's purely because they went slow in the first five furlongs of Grumeti's race. Grumeti came home 2.9 seconds faster over the last eleven furlongs and 3.4 seconds faster over the last five and a half furlongs.
I didn't like the way Baby Mix jumped either. He blundered at the third and over jumped the last three in very novicey fashion.
Physically Baby Mix doesn't really compare with Grumeti. He is a light-framed, immature sort whereas Grumeti is a well balanced, good bodied, classy horse with the build for jumping.
I really like the way Grumeti picked up in the closing stages when runner up DODGING BULLETS (37) mounted a persistent challenge. Grumeti just kept pulling out more to the point where the pair pulled twenty lengths clear of their pursuers.
Dodging Bullets had beaten subsequent Grade 1 hurdles winner Hisaabaat on his last flat start and put up a tremendous performance for a horse having his first start over hurdles. He is reportedly going to skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead. But if he does run in the Triumph I'd respect his chances.
NACARAT STILL HAS IT
NACARAT (40) showed he's as good as ever with his win in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton. Restrained in a distant second behind Fiendish Flame, who was going unsustainably fast, he moved into the lead when that one tired, saw off a determined challenged from the runner up and then kept on going to open up an eleventh length gap as he ground to a halt slower than the rest of a tiring field.
Nacarat only seems to have one way of running and that's flat out. So it's understandable that all his wins bar one have come off a break longer than five weeks. He's also straight through the shoulder which means he hits the ground too hard on the downhill sections of undulating courses (which he's been steered clear of since 2009).
All four of Nacarat's Graded wins have been on ground that race times indicate was good or faster. If it comes up fast enough for him at Aintree and he's been rested beforehand (as seems likely) he must have a decent chance of achieving a second successive win in the Totesport Bowl.
FIENDISH FLAME (18) went well clear and ran the first two miles fast enough to win a decent chase over that distance but understandably stopped to get beat 67 lengths. He's won five of the eight times he's run less than three miles off a break of 25 days or less. The tremendous pace he showed here convinces me that he'll be a decent proposition next time he's returned to the races fairly quickly over a shorter distance.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
HUGE RUNS BY MARUFO & NICHE MARKET
The veteran's handicap chase run at Newbury last Saturday was a seriously fast affair. A searching early pace was sustained all the way though the closing stages in a contest where the first two pulled well clear to clock a Grade 2 class time.
Neither MARUFO (40) or NICHE MARKET (40) were prepared to give best and it was a shame one of them had to lose the prolonged duel between the pair.
It was Marufo who wanted the win most. He literally put his head down and managed to finish a half length ahead of his rival.
Marufo is a big, strong, deep chested, proper staying sort. He seems pretty much unstoppable in long races on fast ground. So far he's completed the course over three miles plus in hurdle races or three and a quarter miles plus in chases on good ground and won every single time.
My ratings suggest that the official mark of 120 that Marufo understates his ability by around two and a half stone. If he can get into an end of season handicap like the Bet365 Gold Cup or the Scottish or Irish National on fast ground he'll surely be a serious player.
Niche Market is clearly as good as ever. He remains a tough horse to beat on big galloping tracks over long distances when the ground is fast. Trainer Paul Nicholls now has good reason to be optimistic about scoring his first Grand National win. And the handicapper must be kicking himself for dropping Niche Market's official mark and allowing him into the National with eight pounds less than he carried into fifth place last year.
PENTIFFIC STARTS TO GET INTERESTING
PENTIFFIC (37) was unbeaten in three steeplechases in Australia, including the country's most valuable and prestigious chase, the Grand National at Sandown. But those races are counted as hurdles under UK and Irish rules, so he's qualified to run in novice chases over here.
This fact now becomes rather interesting following Pentiffic's terrific performance in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster where he tipped up at the last with a two length lead when tiring.
Most likely Pentiffic would have been caught. But he would still have clocked a pattern class time. And the mid race move he made was quite remarkable. He quickened to jump the six fences just before the homestraight 1.8 seconds faster than they did in the good two mile chase later on the same card. Seeing that he was running in a three and a quarter mile chase that is quite something.
Pentiffic is an athletic, rather classy looking sort. When he made his big move he instantly had all his rivals under pressure and opened up a lead of a dozen lengths. If he'd been restrained just a little he would have had enough energy left to jump the last cleanly and hold off his rivals.
Pentiffic put up this smart performance off a mark of 131. But he could run off a mark off only 124 and against novices if he makes the cut in the big novices handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
It could be that Pentiffic’s big run was brought about by the fact he was racing on fast ground for the first time in Britain - seeing that in Australia they rarely have going as soft as the Winter ground we race on in Britain and Ireland. It may also be that Pentiffic will do even better around courses as tight as those he was used to back home. It could be he prefers them dead flat like they are in Australia too. In which case he starts to look rather interesting for the novices handicap chase at the Aintree Festival.
In any event Pentiffic will surely be winning something decent soon following this smart run.
The veteran's handicap chase run at Newbury last Saturday was a seriously fast affair. A searching early pace was sustained all the way though the closing stages in a contest where the first two pulled well clear to clock a Grade 2 class time.
Neither MARUFO (40) or NICHE MARKET (40) were prepared to give best and it was a shame one of them had to lose the prolonged duel between the pair.
It was Marufo who wanted the win most. He literally put his head down and managed to finish a half length ahead of his rival.
Marufo is a big, strong, deep chested, proper staying sort. He seems pretty much unstoppable in long races on fast ground. So far he's completed the course over three miles plus in hurdle races or three and a quarter miles plus in chases on good ground and won every single time.
My ratings suggest that the official mark of 120 that Marufo understates his ability by around two and a half stone. If he can get into an end of season handicap like the Bet365 Gold Cup or the Scottish or Irish National on fast ground he'll surely be a serious player.
Niche Market is clearly as good as ever. He remains a tough horse to beat on big galloping tracks over long distances when the ground is fast. Trainer Paul Nicholls now has good reason to be optimistic about scoring his first Grand National win. And the handicapper must be kicking himself for dropping Niche Market's official mark and allowing him into the National with eight pounds less than he carried into fifth place last year.
PENTIFFIC STARTS TO GET INTERESTING
PENTIFFIC (37) was unbeaten in three steeplechases in Australia, including the country's most valuable and prestigious chase, the Grand National at Sandown. But those races are counted as hurdles under UK and Irish rules, so he's qualified to run in novice chases over here.
This fact now becomes rather interesting following Pentiffic's terrific performance in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster where he tipped up at the last with a two length lead when tiring.
Most likely Pentiffic would have been caught. But he would still have clocked a pattern class time. And the mid race move he made was quite remarkable. He quickened to jump the six fences just before the homestraight 1.8 seconds faster than they did in the good two mile chase later on the same card. Seeing that he was running in a three and a quarter mile chase that is quite something.
Pentiffic is an athletic, rather classy looking sort. When he made his big move he instantly had all his rivals under pressure and opened up a lead of a dozen lengths. If he'd been restrained just a little he would have had enough energy left to jump the last cleanly and hold off his rivals.
Pentiffic put up this smart performance off a mark of 131. But he could run off a mark off only 124 and against novices if he makes the cut in the big novices handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
It could be that Pentiffic’s big run was brought about by the fact he was racing on fast ground for the first time in Britain - seeing that in Australia they rarely have going as soft as the Winter ground we race on in Britain and Ireland. It may also be that Pentiffic will do even better around courses as tight as those he was used to back home. It could be he prefers them dead flat like they are in Australia too. In which case he starts to look rather interesting for the novices handicap chase at the Aintree Festival.
In any event Pentiffic will surely be winning something decent soon following this smart run.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
SYNCHRONISED SURELY WON'T RUN IN GRAND NATIONAL
SYNCHRONISED (43) proved doubters like myself wrong when storming through late to win the Gold Cup in fast time.
There's no way anyone can accuse him of being a four mile, soft ground specialist after this performance. The early pace was 5.1 seconds slower on the first circuit than the second, so Synchronised had to show real speed to win this race on relatively fast ground.
Trainer Jonjo O'Neill probably revealed the key to the horse when saying "he’s not a big robust horse and he needs minding and time between his races."
This is surely right and must explain why Synchronised had to be pulled up when asked to tackle the Irish National last season just 37 days after he'd run third in the Midland National.
Hurdle races don't seem to take much out of Synchronised. But the only time he's won a chase after his first two starts over fences that season has been off a near eight week break. This being so the idea of him tackling the Grand National just four weeks after the Gold Cup looks most improbable.
There were obvious stamina doubts about runner up THE GIANT BOLSTER (42). But a switch from his recent trailblazing tactics enabled him to last home. He'd won the two previous times he'd completed the course at Cheltenham and clearly excels there.
LONG RUN (42) came close to winning the race for a second time but couldn't contain the winner and the rallying second on the run in. He was sketchy at a few fences once more and is just not quite running as fast as he was last season when he won Britain's two biggest chases. That said, he's still running fast enough to win a Grade 1.
BURTON PORT (41) looked a possible winner at the third last but tired up the finishing hill. This was another perfectly fine effort from this smart, consistent horse.
TIME FOR RUPERT (40) made a bold bid for victory on ground that had gone just a little too fast for him. If he gets some cut in the ground he'd be a big threat to win at Aintree or Punchestown.
SPRINTER SACRE THE BEST TWO MILE CHASER SINCE MOSCOW FLYER
SPRINTER SACRE (45) put up an awesome performance to take the Arkle. We was always moving supremely well and just powered away from his rivals to win in very fast time, full of running.
It's hard to see anything beating Sprinter Sacre over two miles. My ratings say he's the best two mile chaser we've seen since Moscow Flyer.
I was impressed with the way that runner up CUE CARD (42) rallied to pull fifteen lengths clear of the rest as the tried to get back on terms with the winner. The cut back to two miles seemed to benefit this keen going sort. He produced his best ever performance.
Like a lot of shorter distance chasers Cue Card seems to be best on his first two starts of the season and with breaks of at least five weeks between his runs thereafter. But actually all his runs have been good. He's a high class horse who looks to be reaching the height of his powers.
SIR DES CHAMPS STILL SHOS NO FLAWS
Some years back, when snooker was a popular sport on British TV, the champion was Steve Davies, a player who was so careful and cautious he earned the nickname ‘boring Steve Davies’.
I reckon SIR DES CHAMPS (42) is the equine equivalent of Steve Davies. All sorts of things may happen around him in a race but he never appears to make a mistake and always seems to find a way to come through his rivals and cruise away with the race. He’s done that in all seven of his starts over jumps to date, including last week's Jewson Novices Chase.
For a horse that had already won at the Cheltenham Festival and scored in Grade 2 company on his last two starts Sir Des Champs had a remarkably low profile before last week. I think this is because, like Steve Davies, he doesn’t give reporters anything exciting to write about.
The only time Sir Des Champs attracted any significant press coverage this season was last time out when the runner up blocked his path and he had to switch around him to score. Trainer Willie Mullins told reporters afterwards that he actually made a few slight jumping errors in the race too but is so clever at recovering nobody noticed them.
Thanks to the runner up setting a searching pace, SIR DES CHAMPS (42) had to run faster than he has before when winning the Jewson. But, as ever, he didn't make a single jumping error and never looked in serious trouble. He quickened up in the style of a very smart horse in the closing stages and was still moving strongly crossing the line.
Seeing how full of running he was at the end of such a strongly run two and a half miles it's hard to argue that Sir Des Champs won't get three miles. You could argue that it was premature for the bookies to make him favourite for the 2013 Gold Cup as he has yet to win over three miles. But five of the last eleven Gold Cup winners hadn't done so by this stage of their careers.
Runner up CHAMPION COURT (40) jumped really well at a strong pace and was unlucky to come up against such a smart winner in a race that will surely be upgraded to Grade 1 status soon.
On reflection I was wrong to think Champion Court is a three miler. The trainer clearly thinks he may still get that far judged by his comments. But there’s nothing on either side of Champion Court’s pedigree that won beyond 2m 6f and he has that inflated, over-muscular physique that you rarely see with a three miler.
If he hadn’t tipped up in one race and bumped into the top class Grands Crus in another Champion Court might well have won five of the six times he’d run 2m 4f or 2m 5f before this big run.
Champion Court is rather heavy over the withers and must hit the ground rather hard. So I would have a doubt about him handling ground much faster than it was at Cheltenham.
AINTREE HURDLE PROBABLY A BAD IDEA FOR ROCK ON RUBY
ROCK ON RUBY (43) was always bang there in the Champion Hurdle, kicked on two out and sustained a strong pace all the way to the line to score in good style.
The objective now is apparently to go for the Aintree Hurdle over two and a half miles. This doesn't look a great idea to me, After all Rock On Ruby got beat over twenty lengths in the big two and a half mile novices hurdle at last year's Aintree Festival - either because the race came too soon after Cheltenham or because he's better over two miles.
The latter idea looks the better explanation because, although he's shown good form over two and a half miles, Rock On Ruby has yet to win beyond two miles and a furlong in three tries. Over shorter trips his record is terrific.
Rock On Ruby lost his racecourse debut. Since then he would have won all seven times he's run two miles if that photo in the Christmas Hurdle had gone his way.
OVERTURN (41) ran right up to his best to take second, keeping on gamely after making the running. If he gets the fast ground he needs at Aintree he should go well.
I am happy to forgive the slightly sub par run of third placed HURRICANE FLY (41).
The stats show that as far back as I can trace 45 horses aged eight or more like Hurricane Fly have run in the Champion Hurdle off two or fewer previous runs that season and they all lost - including nine previous Champion Hurdle winners.
Older horses are harder to get. So it's a good bet that the single previous run Hurricane Fly managed to have this season wasn't quite enough to get him fit enough to win another Champion Hurdle. I'd expect him to bounce back to his best at Punchestown.
In the last 24 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 14 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 14 reached the first three.
BINOCULAR (40) was another loser for this stat, but he did better than most to run fourth. He's obviously a rather fragile horse. So there has to be a concern that this slightly below form effort may signal a similar decline to the one he showed last Spring.
Fifth placed ZARKANDAR (40) put up a really good performance because the stats say it's very difficult for a horse less than six years of age to be competitive in the Champion Hurdle.
Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 80 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008 - and he had way more hurdling experience than most horses his age (a dozen previous starts over timber).
VULCANITE GEST INTERESTING FOR AINTREE
The time taken to run this year's Supreme Novices Hurdle was 2.6 seconds slower than recorded in the Champion Hurdle on the same card. But I wouldn't leap to the conclusion that this means it was a sub-par renewal. The entire 2.6 second difference is accounted for by the pace up to the third jump. From that point the novices clocked the same time as the more experienced hurdlers.
The winner CINDERS AND ASHES (39), despite being flat bred, is built like a two mile steeplechaser, being good bodied, muscular and rather tall. Trainer Donald McCain predicted that he would improve for the faster surface and that the would get up the hill better than he did in the Champion Bumper at this meeting last year. He proved right on both accounts. Even a mistake at the last could not stop his momentum as he kept on running to win in a much finish, where two lengths covered the first five home.
McCain believes Cinders And Ashes is a serious contender for the Champion Hurdle and plans to train him for that race, starting off next term with a tilt at the Fighting Fifth. My feeling is that he'll prove short of the class required for a Champion Hurdler and that he'll do better over fences.
The relatively slow early pace meant it was hard to gain ground. So runner up DARLAN (38) did well to pick up so much ground, having been under a drive for the last half mile. Previously I'd been rather dubious about his ability, but this run convinces me his big reputation is deserved.
Third placed TRIOLIUM (38) did nothing wrong. He was always close up and kept on strongly. I don't think he has the scope to jump fences but he's shown plenty of pace over hurdles and been so consistent he could easily be capable of making the improvement need to become a champion hurdle contender.
MONTBAZON (38) is built and bred for jumping fences and distances of two and a half miles plus. But I still fancied him because he has shown so much ability. He went well for a long way and looked to have made a winning move when moving into the lead two out. But he lacked the change of gear to finish the job and a mistake at the last ensured that pacier rivals were able to get by him.
Next season Montbazon should develop into a serious candidate for the Jewson..
PROSPECT WELLS (38) finished strongest of all to be a close fifth. If the early pace had been stronger or the ground softer it's quite possible he'd have won.
This run once more raises the question of whether Prospect Wells needs to go up in distance. He looked to be beaten by a slow early pace over two miles a couple of runs back at Ascot and once more seemed to be crying out for an extra half mile here.
Tenth placed VULCANITE (31) was disputing the lead and looked a potential winner two out but stopped to nothing up the finishing hill. He was so tired he lost his action after dragging his back legs through the last and was allowed to come home in his own time.
It looks like Vulcanite didn't stay beyond a mile and a half on the flat and has trouble lasting two miles over hurdles - except around tight tracks. He's actually won three of the last four times he's run around tight tracks and run second on a red hot race on his hurdling debut in his sole loss. The big two mile novice hurdle at the Aintree Festival therefore looks a good target for him.
SIMONSIG HAS POTENTIAL TO WIN A GOLD CUP
SIMONSIG (42) never came off the bridle when winning a strongly run renewal of the Neptune novices hurdle at Cheltenham. He was moving so well when Cotton Mill left him in the lead two out I have no doubt he would have scored anyway.
Watching him race I get the strong feeling that fast ground is needed for Simonsig to produce his very best. He's such a pacey sort I find it hard to believe he'd produce top form on soft ground.
Given his stamina and change of gears I can readily see Simonsig developing into a serious candidate for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in two seasons. Next season he must have a fine chance of landing another win at the Cheltenham Festival in the RSA Chase.
Second placed FELIX YONGER (39) stayed on well, though never looking likely to threaten the winner. He is built and bred to go two and a half miles plus, probably three, over fences. He’s fairly athletic but really didn’t look to be a two miler when nonetheless winning a Grade 2 over that distance at Naas last time.
In that race it was good to see that Felix Yonger was happy to settle and just lob along in second behind a slightly slow early pace.
However when the pace picked up and the horses ran the last mile 3.2 seconds faster than the next fastest race Felix Yonger’s jumping wasn’t great. He didn’t seem to like jumping at near sprint speed too much. He moved really well but looked scrappy at the hurdles, especially the last where he landed on all fours. He was so full of running he was still able to clear away from his rivals from there to score by three lengths.
What was impressive was just how much time Felix Yonger was able to make from halfway up despite running over a clearly inadequate distance. That’s invariably a sign of a high class horse.
Judged by trainer Willie Mullins’ comments he clearly thinks the horse is best suited by a fast surface. He told reporters earlier “He is a super mover and I don’t think he is a winter horse. I think he will be better on better ground in the spring. Ruby always thought he would have no problem staying but he is well able to compete over two miles on better ground. He shows me plenty of gears at home and I think he will improve again.’
Felix Yonger only managed second on heavy ground on his two seasonal debuts to date. Then again, he’s such a relaxed horse maybe he is hard to get fit at home and will always need his first run off a break.
The one clunker in Felix Yonger’s record is the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last year. In that race he was forced wide due to lacking the pace to manouver closer to the rail early. When the pace increased running down the hill he was absolutely floundering. From being six lengths back at the top of the hill he was thirty lengths behind in little more than a furlong as they ran down it. He ended up getting beat nearly 77 lengths. That run made him look like an out and out three miler. So it's understandable he showed major improvement when stepped up to 2m 5f here.
Next year Felix Yonger looks a decent prospect for the RSA Chase. Meanwhile he should be a big player at either Aintree or Punchestown.
COTTON MILL (40) tried to run out and unseated his rider when still leading and moving strongly two out. My best estimate is he'd have finished second by four or five lengths but for this.
When he won the Grade 2 prep for the Neptune at Warwick last time there were a few signs that Cotton Mill was a bit quirky. He raced keenly and wore a cross noseband to give his jockey more leverage. In addition his rider was obviously under instructions to take the lead as late as possible because he sat in a close second or third until asking Cotton Mill for his effort running up to the last. At that point Cotton Mill looked to be going a lot better than his only challenger Ambion Wood. But that one forced him to run hard all the way to the line, the pair drawing nine lengths clear of the rest.
It could be that Cotton Mill is going to prove best on tighter, narrower courses that Cheltenham. Or it may be he prefers smaller fields. Only time will tell.
SIZING EUROPE CAN TURN THIS FORM AROUND AT PUNCHESTOWN
If you look at horses which lost the Arkle that went on to run in the Champion Chase from 1989 onwards you’ll find that they only scored one win from eighty tries up to this year - that win being by Deep Sensation.
FINIAN'S RAINBOW (42) defied the stats to win this year's Champion Chase. But he clocked a time 1.1 seconds slower than Sprinter Sacre did in the Arkle. And that looks a fair measure of the pair's respective merits.
Nonetheless Finian's Rainbow is clearly a classy two mile chaser. He just got the better of a rather rough finish caused by the horses having to swerve sharply to avoid the last fence. And he clocked a perfectly respectable time.
Now that he's out of the novice ranks I would expect Finian's Rainbow to need time between his runs once he's had a couple of starts each season. There's only 40 days to the Champion Chase at Punchestown, and I'm not sure that's long enough for Finian's Rainbow to do himself justice if there's a re-match between himself and Sizing Europe in Ireland.
It's hard to say just how much SIZING EUROPE (42) was affected by having to swerve more sharply than the winner to avoid the omitted last fence. But he kept on strongly and only just went under. Seeing that the stays longer it must be tempting for Sizing Europe's connections to shoot for the two and a half mile Melling Chase at the Aintree Festival. But he's yet to show that he can handle a tight track and his record at Punchestown is so good the Irish race looks the more logical option. I'd bet on him reversing this form with the winner there.
Third placed BIG ZEB (34) hasn't earned a rating bigger than 40 from me in over a year, so it may well be he's deteriorated with age. However it's worth bearing in mind that he has still won nine of the ten times he's run in a two mile chase off a break of six weeks or more. Unfortunately the Punchestown Champion Chase comes up sooner this year than normal, so My bet is he won't be fresh enough to do himself justice there................
SYNCHRONISED (43) proved doubters like myself wrong when storming through late to win the Gold Cup in fast time.
There's no way anyone can accuse him of being a four mile, soft ground specialist after this performance. The early pace was 5.1 seconds slower on the first circuit than the second, so Synchronised had to show real speed to win this race on relatively fast ground.
Trainer Jonjo O'Neill probably revealed the key to the horse when saying "he’s not a big robust horse and he needs minding and time between his races."
This is surely right and must explain why Synchronised had to be pulled up when asked to tackle the Irish National last season just 37 days after he'd run third in the Midland National.
Hurdle races don't seem to take much out of Synchronised. But the only time he's won a chase after his first two starts over fences that season has been off a near eight week break. This being so the idea of him tackling the Grand National just four weeks after the Gold Cup looks most improbable.
There were obvious stamina doubts about runner up THE GIANT BOLSTER (42). But a switch from his recent trailblazing tactics enabled him to last home. He'd won the two previous times he'd completed the course at Cheltenham and clearly excels there.
LONG RUN (42) came close to winning the race for a second time but couldn't contain the winner and the rallying second on the run in. He was sketchy at a few fences once more and is just not quite running as fast as he was last season when he won Britain's two biggest chases. That said, he's still running fast enough to win a Grade 1.
BURTON PORT (41) looked a possible winner at the third last but tired up the finishing hill. This was another perfectly fine effort from this smart, consistent horse.
TIME FOR RUPERT (40) made a bold bid for victory on ground that had gone just a little too fast for him. If he gets some cut in the ground he'd be a big threat to win at Aintree or Punchestown.
SPRINTER SACRE THE BEST TWO MILE CHASER SINCE MOSCOW FLYER
SPRINTER SACRE (45) put up an awesome performance to take the Arkle. We was always moving supremely well and just powered away from his rivals to win in very fast time, full of running.
It's hard to see anything beating Sprinter Sacre over two miles. My ratings say he's the best two mile chaser we've seen since Moscow Flyer.
I was impressed with the way that runner up CUE CARD (42) rallied to pull fifteen lengths clear of the rest as the tried to get back on terms with the winner. The cut back to two miles seemed to benefit this keen going sort. He produced his best ever performance.
Like a lot of shorter distance chasers Cue Card seems to be best on his first two starts of the season and with breaks of at least five weeks between his runs thereafter. But actually all his runs have been good. He's a high class horse who looks to be reaching the height of his powers.
SIR DES CHAMPS STILL SHOS NO FLAWS
Some years back, when snooker was a popular sport on British TV, the champion was Steve Davies, a player who was so careful and cautious he earned the nickname ‘boring Steve Davies’.
I reckon SIR DES CHAMPS (42) is the equine equivalent of Steve Davies. All sorts of things may happen around him in a race but he never appears to make a mistake and always seems to find a way to come through his rivals and cruise away with the race. He’s done that in all seven of his starts over jumps to date, including last week's Jewson Novices Chase.
For a horse that had already won at the Cheltenham Festival and scored in Grade 2 company on his last two starts Sir Des Champs had a remarkably low profile before last week. I think this is because, like Steve Davies, he doesn’t give reporters anything exciting to write about.
The only time Sir Des Champs attracted any significant press coverage this season was last time out when the runner up blocked his path and he had to switch around him to score. Trainer Willie Mullins told reporters afterwards that he actually made a few slight jumping errors in the race too but is so clever at recovering nobody noticed them.
Thanks to the runner up setting a searching pace, SIR DES CHAMPS (42) had to run faster than he has before when winning the Jewson. But, as ever, he didn't make a single jumping error and never looked in serious trouble. He quickened up in the style of a very smart horse in the closing stages and was still moving strongly crossing the line.
Seeing how full of running he was at the end of such a strongly run two and a half miles it's hard to argue that Sir Des Champs won't get three miles. You could argue that it was premature for the bookies to make him favourite for the 2013 Gold Cup as he has yet to win over three miles. But five of the last eleven Gold Cup winners hadn't done so by this stage of their careers.
Runner up CHAMPION COURT (40) jumped really well at a strong pace and was unlucky to come up against such a smart winner in a race that will surely be upgraded to Grade 1 status soon.
On reflection I was wrong to think Champion Court is a three miler. The trainer clearly thinks he may still get that far judged by his comments. But there’s nothing on either side of Champion Court’s pedigree that won beyond 2m 6f and he has that inflated, over-muscular physique that you rarely see with a three miler.
If he hadn’t tipped up in one race and bumped into the top class Grands Crus in another Champion Court might well have won five of the six times he’d run 2m 4f or 2m 5f before this big run.
Champion Court is rather heavy over the withers and must hit the ground rather hard. So I would have a doubt about him handling ground much faster than it was at Cheltenham.
AINTREE HURDLE PROBABLY A BAD IDEA FOR ROCK ON RUBY
ROCK ON RUBY (43) was always bang there in the Champion Hurdle, kicked on two out and sustained a strong pace all the way to the line to score in good style.
The objective now is apparently to go for the Aintree Hurdle over two and a half miles. This doesn't look a great idea to me, After all Rock On Ruby got beat over twenty lengths in the big two and a half mile novices hurdle at last year's Aintree Festival - either because the race came too soon after Cheltenham or because he's better over two miles.
The latter idea looks the better explanation because, although he's shown good form over two and a half miles, Rock On Ruby has yet to win beyond two miles and a furlong in three tries. Over shorter trips his record is terrific.
Rock On Ruby lost his racecourse debut. Since then he would have won all seven times he's run two miles if that photo in the Christmas Hurdle had gone his way.
OVERTURN (41) ran right up to his best to take second, keeping on gamely after making the running. If he gets the fast ground he needs at Aintree he should go well.
I am happy to forgive the slightly sub par run of third placed HURRICANE FLY (41).
The stats show that as far back as I can trace 45 horses aged eight or more like Hurricane Fly have run in the Champion Hurdle off two or fewer previous runs that season and they all lost - including nine previous Champion Hurdle winners.
Older horses are harder to get. So it's a good bet that the single previous run Hurricane Fly managed to have this season wasn't quite enough to get him fit enough to win another Champion Hurdle. I'd expect him to bounce back to his best at Punchestown.
In the last 24 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 14 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 14 reached the first three.
BINOCULAR (40) was another loser for this stat, but he did better than most to run fourth. He's obviously a rather fragile horse. So there has to be a concern that this slightly below form effort may signal a similar decline to the one he showed last Spring.
Fifth placed ZARKANDAR (40) put up a really good performance because the stats say it's very difficult for a horse less than six years of age to be competitive in the Champion Hurdle.
Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 80 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008 - and he had way more hurdling experience than most horses his age (a dozen previous starts over timber).
VULCANITE GEST INTERESTING FOR AINTREE
The time taken to run this year's Supreme Novices Hurdle was 2.6 seconds slower than recorded in the Champion Hurdle on the same card. But I wouldn't leap to the conclusion that this means it was a sub-par renewal. The entire 2.6 second difference is accounted for by the pace up to the third jump. From that point the novices clocked the same time as the more experienced hurdlers.
The winner CINDERS AND ASHES (39), despite being flat bred, is built like a two mile steeplechaser, being good bodied, muscular and rather tall. Trainer Donald McCain predicted that he would improve for the faster surface and that the would get up the hill better than he did in the Champion Bumper at this meeting last year. He proved right on both accounts. Even a mistake at the last could not stop his momentum as he kept on running to win in a much finish, where two lengths covered the first five home.
McCain believes Cinders And Ashes is a serious contender for the Champion Hurdle and plans to train him for that race, starting off next term with a tilt at the Fighting Fifth. My feeling is that he'll prove short of the class required for a Champion Hurdler and that he'll do better over fences.
The relatively slow early pace meant it was hard to gain ground. So runner up DARLAN (38) did well to pick up so much ground, having been under a drive for the last half mile. Previously I'd been rather dubious about his ability, but this run convinces me his big reputation is deserved.
Third placed TRIOLIUM (38) did nothing wrong. He was always close up and kept on strongly. I don't think he has the scope to jump fences but he's shown plenty of pace over hurdles and been so consistent he could easily be capable of making the improvement need to become a champion hurdle contender.
MONTBAZON (38) is built and bred for jumping fences and distances of two and a half miles plus. But I still fancied him because he has shown so much ability. He went well for a long way and looked to have made a winning move when moving into the lead two out. But he lacked the change of gear to finish the job and a mistake at the last ensured that pacier rivals were able to get by him.
Next season Montbazon should develop into a serious candidate for the Jewson..
PROSPECT WELLS (38) finished strongest of all to be a close fifth. If the early pace had been stronger or the ground softer it's quite possible he'd have won.
This run once more raises the question of whether Prospect Wells needs to go up in distance. He looked to be beaten by a slow early pace over two miles a couple of runs back at Ascot and once more seemed to be crying out for an extra half mile here.
Tenth placed VULCANITE (31) was disputing the lead and looked a potential winner two out but stopped to nothing up the finishing hill. He was so tired he lost his action after dragging his back legs through the last and was allowed to come home in his own time.
It looks like Vulcanite didn't stay beyond a mile and a half on the flat and has trouble lasting two miles over hurdles - except around tight tracks. He's actually won three of the last four times he's run around tight tracks and run second on a red hot race on his hurdling debut in his sole loss. The big two mile novice hurdle at the Aintree Festival therefore looks a good target for him.
SIMONSIG HAS POTENTIAL TO WIN A GOLD CUP
SIMONSIG (42) never came off the bridle when winning a strongly run renewal of the Neptune novices hurdle at Cheltenham. He was moving so well when Cotton Mill left him in the lead two out I have no doubt he would have scored anyway.
Watching him race I get the strong feeling that fast ground is needed for Simonsig to produce his very best. He's such a pacey sort I find it hard to believe he'd produce top form on soft ground.
Given his stamina and change of gears I can readily see Simonsig developing into a serious candidate for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in two seasons. Next season he must have a fine chance of landing another win at the Cheltenham Festival in the RSA Chase.
Second placed FELIX YONGER (39) stayed on well, though never looking likely to threaten the winner. He is built and bred to go two and a half miles plus, probably three, over fences. He’s fairly athletic but really didn’t look to be a two miler when nonetheless winning a Grade 2 over that distance at Naas last time.
In that race it was good to see that Felix Yonger was happy to settle and just lob along in second behind a slightly slow early pace.
However when the pace picked up and the horses ran the last mile 3.2 seconds faster than the next fastest race Felix Yonger’s jumping wasn’t great. He didn’t seem to like jumping at near sprint speed too much. He moved really well but looked scrappy at the hurdles, especially the last where he landed on all fours. He was so full of running he was still able to clear away from his rivals from there to score by three lengths.
What was impressive was just how much time Felix Yonger was able to make from halfway up despite running over a clearly inadequate distance. That’s invariably a sign of a high class horse.
Judged by trainer Willie Mullins’ comments he clearly thinks the horse is best suited by a fast surface. He told reporters earlier “He is a super mover and I don’t think he is a winter horse. I think he will be better on better ground in the spring. Ruby always thought he would have no problem staying but he is well able to compete over two miles on better ground. He shows me plenty of gears at home and I think he will improve again.’
Felix Yonger only managed second on heavy ground on his two seasonal debuts to date. Then again, he’s such a relaxed horse maybe he is hard to get fit at home and will always need his first run off a break.
The one clunker in Felix Yonger’s record is the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last year. In that race he was forced wide due to lacking the pace to manouver closer to the rail early. When the pace increased running down the hill he was absolutely floundering. From being six lengths back at the top of the hill he was thirty lengths behind in little more than a furlong as they ran down it. He ended up getting beat nearly 77 lengths. That run made him look like an out and out three miler. So it's understandable he showed major improvement when stepped up to 2m 5f here.
Next year Felix Yonger looks a decent prospect for the RSA Chase. Meanwhile he should be a big player at either Aintree or Punchestown.
COTTON MILL (40) tried to run out and unseated his rider when still leading and moving strongly two out. My best estimate is he'd have finished second by four or five lengths but for this.
When he won the Grade 2 prep for the Neptune at Warwick last time there were a few signs that Cotton Mill was a bit quirky. He raced keenly and wore a cross noseband to give his jockey more leverage. In addition his rider was obviously under instructions to take the lead as late as possible because he sat in a close second or third until asking Cotton Mill for his effort running up to the last. At that point Cotton Mill looked to be going a lot better than his only challenger Ambion Wood. But that one forced him to run hard all the way to the line, the pair drawing nine lengths clear of the rest.
It could be that Cotton Mill is going to prove best on tighter, narrower courses that Cheltenham. Or it may be he prefers smaller fields. Only time will tell.
SIZING EUROPE CAN TURN THIS FORM AROUND AT PUNCHESTOWN
If you look at horses which lost the Arkle that went on to run in the Champion Chase from 1989 onwards you’ll find that they only scored one win from eighty tries up to this year - that win being by Deep Sensation.
FINIAN'S RAINBOW (42) defied the stats to win this year's Champion Chase. But he clocked a time 1.1 seconds slower than Sprinter Sacre did in the Arkle. And that looks a fair measure of the pair's respective merits.
Nonetheless Finian's Rainbow is clearly a classy two mile chaser. He just got the better of a rather rough finish caused by the horses having to swerve sharply to avoid the last fence. And he clocked a perfectly respectable time.
Now that he's out of the novice ranks I would expect Finian's Rainbow to need time between his runs once he's had a couple of starts each season. There's only 40 days to the Champion Chase at Punchestown, and I'm not sure that's long enough for Finian's Rainbow to do himself justice if there's a re-match between himself and Sizing Europe in Ireland.
It's hard to say just how much SIZING EUROPE (42) was affected by having to swerve more sharply than the winner to avoid the omitted last fence. But he kept on strongly and only just went under. Seeing that the stays longer it must be tempting for Sizing Europe's connections to shoot for the two and a half mile Melling Chase at the Aintree Festival. But he's yet to show that he can handle a tight track and his record at Punchestown is so good the Irish race looks the more logical option. I'd bet on him reversing this form with the winner there.
Third placed BIG ZEB (34) hasn't earned a rating bigger than 40 from me in over a year, so it may well be he's deteriorated with age. However it's worth bearing in mind that he has still won nine of the ten times he's run in a two mile chase off a break of six weeks or more. Unfortunately the Punchestown Champion Chase comes up sooner this year than normal, so My bet is he won't be fresh enough to do himself justice there................
Colin Phillips
At the Start
FORGOTTEN HERO A CLASSIC PROSPECT
I was seriously impressed with the way FORGOTTEN HERO (37) romped home by six lengths in a mile maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack.
This good-bodied, mature, muscular, classy looking sort, was going a tad too fast in the lead for the first half mile. His jockey Michael Hills therefore eased him back, and allowed his rivals to close in until kicking on again up the straight to sprint well clear and win with a good deal in hand.
Forgotten Hero clearly has plenty of pace but has the physique and pedigree of a ten furlong horse. He should have a favourite's chance of taking the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket next time. After that his connections will need to choose between the Prix du Jockey Club and the Derby. At this stage I'd be favouring the French race given the pace Forgotten Hero showed here.
CAI SHEN HAS IMPROVED
PREMIO LOCO (40) is pretty much unbeatable on Polytrack. If the photo had gone his way in the 2009 Winter Derby he would have won all seven times he's run beyond sprint distances on Polytrack.
Even though he's now eight Premio Loco clearly still retains all his ability, as he showed when holding off the late rally of runner up Cai Shen in this year's Winter Derby.
CAI SHEN (40) was hung out wide throughout and must have lost a couple of lengths by taking the home turn six or seven wide. It was therefore a tremendous effort on his part to pick up so strongly and close the gap to just half a length at the line.
Cai Shen has met traffic problems in big fields in three of his last four starts. He's clearly best in single figure fields or on straight courses. The important thing to grab hold of is that he has improved since last season according to my ratings. This being so I'd like to see him shoot for the Earl Of Sefton Stakes next time as the straight course should ensure him a traffic free run there.
SHARESTAN A SMART MILER
I'm always wary of horses that run seriously fast times in big handicaps. Very often their fast times are dependant on the searching early pace that's the norm in such races. When they attempt the transition to Group company they're found wanting for finishing speed.
I doubt that this is going to prove the case with SHARESTAN (40) who clocked a proper Group 2 class time to take the Irish Lincolnshire. The way he came there cruising just before the furlong pole gave me the impression that he would actually have preferred a less taxing early gallop. He's a good moving horse that looks built to produce a serious turn of foot.
Sharestan still appeared to be a little green as he surged clear in the closing stages. So I can see him improving on this effort - particularly on the faster ground his stride seems designed for.
Sharestan's neck is too short for me to believe he'll be effective much beyond the mile of this race. Indeed I can readily see him cutting back to seven furlongs and producing his best form. He's entered in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes over that distance in four weeks but looks more likely to go for the Listed Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown a week earlier. He shouldn't have any trouble taking that race.
TWIRL CAN WIN AN OAKS TRIAL
TWIRL (36) is a taller horse than her smart sister Misty For Me and a much more obvious stayer. Nonetheless she ran really well over a mile to be second in the Group 3 Park Express Stakes to CHRYSANTHEMUM (37).
My suspicion is that despite her obvious scope for improvement over longer and consistently smart form with cut in the ground Chrysanthemum is not going to progress into a Group n1 performer. Twirl on the other hand was still moving strongly and looked full of run crossing the line. It was simply the inadequate distance and the fact she was running green that enabled the older filly to edge away from her in the closing stages.
Twirl raced with her head too high which made it impossible for jockey Ryan Moore to ride her out fully. With more experience she should become more tractable. Over longer distances I can readily see her improving significantly. Certainly she should be capable of winning an Oaks Trial. And if she can be given a couple more runs before Epsom she might even have enough experience and ability to win the big race itself. The 25-1 the bookies are offering about that eventuality is rather tempting each way.
FORESTER SHOULD IMPROVE
Even after taking sectional times of such races for years I still find it odd how most European two year old races are invariably run slow till the final three furlongs - particularly early in the season.
This was the case with Europe's first two year old race, the maiden run at the Curragh last Sunday. By my estimates they went 1.37 seconds slower for the first furlong than they did in the later handicap sprint when I adjust for the difference made by a standing start. They covered the next furlong 0.64 of a second slower but then sped up to run the final three furlongs 0.95 of a second faster than the older horses.
If I treat the race as being a four furlong contest and invoke my sectional timing formula for the last three furlongs I can justify giving the winner DAWN APPROACH (34) a borderline Listed class speed rating. But I don't like his compact physique very much. I worry he takes rather too much after his dam sire Phone Trick who is quite often used as a quarter horse sire.
I reckon the third horse FORESTER (31) will prove better in the long term. He produced an impressive surge during the sprint for home to move up from fourth by nearly three lengths to edge into a slight lead at the furlong pole before ceding ground late. He looked rather green to me and has a physique and pedigree which both suggest he'll be suited to longer in due course.
I was seriously impressed with the way FORGOTTEN HERO (37) romped home by six lengths in a mile maiden on Lingfield's Polytrack.
This good-bodied, mature, muscular, classy looking sort, was going a tad too fast in the lead for the first half mile. His jockey Michael Hills therefore eased him back, and allowed his rivals to close in until kicking on again up the straight to sprint well clear and win with a good deal in hand.
Forgotten Hero clearly has plenty of pace but has the physique and pedigree of a ten furlong horse. He should have a favourite's chance of taking the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket next time. After that his connections will need to choose between the Prix du Jockey Club and the Derby. At this stage I'd be favouring the French race given the pace Forgotten Hero showed here.
CAI SHEN HAS IMPROVED
PREMIO LOCO (40) is pretty much unbeatable on Polytrack. If the photo had gone his way in the 2009 Winter Derby he would have won all seven times he's run beyond sprint distances on Polytrack.
Even though he's now eight Premio Loco clearly still retains all his ability, as he showed when holding off the late rally of runner up Cai Shen in this year's Winter Derby.
CAI SHEN (40) was hung out wide throughout and must have lost a couple of lengths by taking the home turn six or seven wide. It was therefore a tremendous effort on his part to pick up so strongly and close the gap to just half a length at the line.
Cai Shen has met traffic problems in big fields in three of his last four starts. He's clearly best in single figure fields or on straight courses. The important thing to grab hold of is that he has improved since last season according to my ratings. This being so I'd like to see him shoot for the Earl Of Sefton Stakes next time as the straight course should ensure him a traffic free run there.
SHARESTAN A SMART MILER
I'm always wary of horses that run seriously fast times in big handicaps. Very often their fast times are dependant on the searching early pace that's the norm in such races. When they attempt the transition to Group company they're found wanting for finishing speed.
I doubt that this is going to prove the case with SHARESTAN (40) who clocked a proper Group 2 class time to take the Irish Lincolnshire. The way he came there cruising just before the furlong pole gave me the impression that he would actually have preferred a less taxing early gallop. He's a good moving horse that looks built to produce a serious turn of foot.
Sharestan still appeared to be a little green as he surged clear in the closing stages. So I can see him improving on this effort - particularly on the faster ground his stride seems designed for.
Sharestan's neck is too short for me to believe he'll be effective much beyond the mile of this race. Indeed I can readily see him cutting back to seven furlongs and producing his best form. He's entered in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes over that distance in four weeks but looks more likely to go for the Listed Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown a week earlier. He shouldn't have any trouble taking that race.
TWIRL CAN WIN AN OAKS TRIAL
TWIRL (36) is a taller horse than her smart sister Misty For Me and a much more obvious stayer. Nonetheless she ran really well over a mile to be second in the Group 3 Park Express Stakes to CHRYSANTHEMUM (37).
My suspicion is that despite her obvious scope for improvement over longer and consistently smart form with cut in the ground Chrysanthemum is not going to progress into a Group n1 performer. Twirl on the other hand was still moving strongly and looked full of run crossing the line. It was simply the inadequate distance and the fact she was running green that enabled the older filly to edge away from her in the closing stages.
Twirl raced with her head too high which made it impossible for jockey Ryan Moore to ride her out fully. With more experience she should become more tractable. Over longer distances I can readily see her improving significantly. Certainly she should be capable of winning an Oaks Trial. And if she can be given a couple more runs before Epsom she might even have enough experience and ability to win the big race itself. The 25-1 the bookies are offering about that eventuality is rather tempting each way.
FORESTER SHOULD IMPROVE
Even after taking sectional times of such races for years I still find it odd how most European two year old races are invariably run slow till the final three furlongs - particularly early in the season.
This was the case with Europe's first two year old race, the maiden run at the Curragh last Sunday. By my estimates they went 1.37 seconds slower for the first furlong than they did in the later handicap sprint when I adjust for the difference made by a standing start. They covered the next furlong 0.64 of a second slower but then sped up to run the final three furlongs 0.95 of a second faster than the older horses.
If I treat the race as being a four furlong contest and invoke my sectional timing formula for the last three furlongs I can justify giving the winner DAWN APPROACH (34) a borderline Listed class speed rating. But I don't like his compact physique very much. I worry he takes rather too much after his dam sire Phone Trick who is quite often used as a quarter horse sire.
I reckon the third horse FORESTER (31) will prove better in the long term. He produced an impressive surge during the sprint for home to move up from fourth by nearly three lengths to edge into a slight lead at the furlong pole before ceding ground late. He looked rather green to me and has a physique and pedigree which both suggest he'll be suited to longer in due course.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
PRINCESS HIGHWAY AND BETTERBETTERBETTER LOOK GROUP 1 CLASS
The fillies and colts maidens over ten furlongs at Leopardstown last Wednesday were both run in 2m 8.56 seconds. But PRINCESS HIGHWAY (38) came home a monstrous 2.5 seconds faster over the last three furlongs. She was even 1.1 seconds faster over the last three furlongs than pattern class colts were in the later conditions race over a mile.
Only a high class horse can pick up so strongly off a decent gallop, and my ratings say that Princess Highway is a proper Group 1 filly. She's a strong, good moving, well balanced sort whose trainer Dermot Weld says she's best on fast ground. She ran like an old hand here and it must be tempting for her connections to pay the supplementary entry fee for the Oaks. I guess a decision on that will be made after she contests the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas next month. If the ground comes up fast for that race Princess Highway should win there.
Most likely Princess Highway will be going for the Irish Oaks rather than Epsom. Even at this early stage I like her chances in that race.
Runner up BETTERBETTERBETTER (37) put up a tremendous performance for a debutante to be second. She set the pace, couldn't contain the winner but kept on strongly to finish clear of the rest.
Betterbetterbetter's trainer Aidan O'Brien has had three 3YO fillies previously that earned Racing Post ratings of 80 or higher on their racecourse debuts in Curragh or Leopardstown maidens in March or April before. They were Moonstone, All Too Beautiful and All My Loving who went on to run second, second and third respectively in the Oaks at Epsom.
Betterbetterbetter is up to that sort of class according to my ratings. She's a well proportioned rather classy looking filly with a terrific pedigree. The 33-1 the bookies are offering about her chances at Epsom looks seriously good value each way.
FURNER'S GREEN SHOULD IMPROVE
Turning into the straight FURNERS GREEN (36) looked sure to win a one mile conditions race at Leopardstown. He was still last but moving smoothly while his rivals were all hard ridden. As he made the predictable smooth and rapid headway he cropped to five to one on in running on Betfair. But he seemed to blow up through lack of fitness close home and couldn't contain the persistent rally of LIGHT HEAVY (36).
Last year Furners Green finished strongly to be fourth by only two lengths in the Group 1 National Stakes, earning a slightly bigger speed rating from me than he did here despite the fact he was only two. He's built and bred for longer and looks likely to improve markedly next time, particularly over longer.
The logical target for Furners Green is the valuable Tattersalls Millions over ten furlongs at Newmarket's first meeting in a couple of weeks. He'd have a good chance there.
Light Heavy was under pressure for a long way but kept on finding more. He needs to improve on this to have a shot in a Derby Trial. But over a longer trip that's quite possible.
BORN TO SURPRISE IS USEFUL BUT LACKS EXPERIENCE FOR GUINEAS TRIAL
The way that BORN TO SURPRISE (37) powered away from his rivals to win a seven furlong maiden at Doncaster was impressive. This big, muscular, mature, good-bodied horse came home faster over the last three furlongs than they did in the 0-100 6f handicap and the Listed Doncaster Mile. I rated it a borderline Group class performance.
Born To Surprise has the same sort of physique as a lot of horses by his sire Exceed And Excel and there's an obvious doubt about him getting another furlong. His logical target is the Greenham over seven furlongs. However no horse has won that race in the last fourty years after prepping in a maiden that same season. So it looks like he lacks the experience needed to win it and needs a bit more time.
The fillies and colts maidens over ten furlongs at Leopardstown last Wednesday were both run in 2m 8.56 seconds. But PRINCESS HIGHWAY (38) came home a monstrous 2.5 seconds faster over the last three furlongs. She was even 1.1 seconds faster over the last three furlongs than pattern class colts were in the later conditions race over a mile.
Only a high class horse can pick up so strongly off a decent gallop, and my ratings say that Princess Highway is a proper Group 1 filly. She's a strong, good moving, well balanced sort whose trainer Dermot Weld says she's best on fast ground. She ran like an old hand here and it must be tempting for her connections to pay the supplementary entry fee for the Oaks. I guess a decision on that will be made after she contests the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas next month. If the ground comes up fast for that race Princess Highway should win there.
Most likely Princess Highway will be going for the Irish Oaks rather than Epsom. Even at this early stage I like her chances in that race.
Runner up BETTERBETTERBETTER (37) put up a tremendous performance for a debutante to be second. She set the pace, couldn't contain the winner but kept on strongly to finish clear of the rest.
Betterbetterbetter's trainer Aidan O'Brien has had three 3YO fillies previously that earned Racing Post ratings of 80 or higher on their racecourse debuts in Curragh or Leopardstown maidens in March or April before. They were Moonstone, All Too Beautiful and All My Loving who went on to run second, second and third respectively in the Oaks at Epsom.
Betterbetterbetter is up to that sort of class according to my ratings. She's a well proportioned rather classy looking filly with a terrific pedigree. The 33-1 the bookies are offering about her chances at Epsom looks seriously good value each way.
FURNER'S GREEN SHOULD IMPROVE
Turning into the straight FURNERS GREEN (36) looked sure to win a one mile conditions race at Leopardstown. He was still last but moving smoothly while his rivals were all hard ridden. As he made the predictable smooth and rapid headway he cropped to five to one on in running on Betfair. But he seemed to blow up through lack of fitness close home and couldn't contain the persistent rally of LIGHT HEAVY (36).
Last year Furners Green finished strongly to be fourth by only two lengths in the Group 1 National Stakes, earning a slightly bigger speed rating from me than he did here despite the fact he was only two. He's built and bred for longer and looks likely to improve markedly next time, particularly over longer.
The logical target for Furners Green is the valuable Tattersalls Millions over ten furlongs at Newmarket's first meeting in a couple of weeks. He'd have a good chance there.
Light Heavy was under pressure for a long way but kept on finding more. He needs to improve on this to have a shot in a Derby Trial. But over a longer trip that's quite possible.
BORN TO SURPRISE IS USEFUL BUT LACKS EXPERIENCE FOR GUINEAS TRIAL
The way that BORN TO SURPRISE (37) powered away from his rivals to win a seven furlong maiden at Doncaster was impressive. This big, muscular, mature, good-bodied horse came home faster over the last three furlongs than they did in the 0-100 6f handicap and the Listed Doncaster Mile. I rated it a borderline Group class performance.
Born To Surprise has the same sort of physique as a lot of horses by his sire Exceed And Excel and there's an obvious doubt about him getting another furlong. His logical target is the Greenham over seven furlongs. However no horse has won that race in the last fourty years after prepping in a maiden that same season. So it looks like he lacks the experience needed to win it and needs a bit more time.
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
How many Classic bets do we have for Nick Mordin now?
I'm sure he'll be writing about the next "Classic prospect" after they win their trial and every year before you know it there's six or seven he's already covered himself with.
Surprised a man of his experience and the amount of races he's watched never picked up on how she was never out of 1st gear throughout the whole race - couldn't contain the winner? kept on strongly?
I make it;
Colts - Forgotten Hero, Star Surprise
Fillies - Twirl, Betterbetterbetter & Princess Highway.
Let's not forget the horses he actually tips nearer the day and the 2 year old's he put up last year for the Classics.
:lol:
I'm sure he'll be writing about the next "Classic prospect" after they win their trial and every year before you know it there's six or seven he's already covered himself with.
Surprised a man of his experience and the amount of races he's watched never picked up on how she was never out of 1st gear throughout the whole race - couldn't contain the winner? kept on strongly?
I make it;
Colts - Forgotten Hero, Star Surprise
Fillies - Twirl, Betterbetterbetter & Princess Highway.
Let's not forget the horses he actually tips nearer the day and the 2 year old's he put up last year for the Classics.
:lol:
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Colin Phillips
At the Start
Will do, Clive, thanks.
EC1
On a break
i bought the weekender this week..read it in about 10 minutes..i'd rather read Mordins website comments as posted here than the pile of generalised shite thats spewed out in the weekender
there is only Nick worth reading in it tbh
the paper is just a waste of time imo..it could have been printed 20 years ago and wouldn't read much different..no innovation in there at all
yes i know its trendy to knock Nick..but as i have said before..remove the nonsense and underneath are some valid arguments and interesting ways of looking at racing
there is only Nick worth reading in it tbh
the paper is just a waste of time imo..it could have been printed 20 years ago and wouldn't read much different..no innovation in there at all
yes i know its trendy to knock Nick..but as i have said before..remove the nonsense and underneath are some valid arguments and interesting ways of looking at racing
Colin Phillips
At the Start
NAZREEF SHOULD GO TO AMERICA
NAZREEF (38) clocked a Group class time when winning a good one mile handicap on Kempton's Polytrack. He made almost all the running, hung fire briefly entering the straight but then picked up again strongly in the final furlong after he'd drifted towards the stands rail and had that to guide him.
So far Nazreef has won six of the seven times he's run a mile on the All Weather with his sole loss coming the one time he tried Lingfield. He's clearly not as good on grass. And his handicap mark is now prohibitively high for the AW. So, with no Group races for him to aim at over a mile on the AW in Britain or Ireland, he surely needs to start travelling.
Nazreef could pick up a lot of money in races on synthetic surfaces in America. That's surely where he should be racing from now on.
EASTERN SUN IS USEFUL
EASTERN SUN (37) clocked a time that rates between Listed and Group 3 class for an early season 3YO when winning a good conditions race on Kempton's Polytrack.
Kept very wide down the backstretch so that he could gain ground and tack over to lead entering the turn, Eastern Sun was always going well and picked up strongly up the straight to win by nearly two lengths.
Eastern Sun looked a little bit stretched by the pace over a mile here. So I'm thinking he may end up being better over ten furlongs (something his trainer suggested before the race). His sire was a sprinter but his dam ran second in the Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger).
Eastern Sun is a medium sized, rather light-framed colt with a fast ground action. His only loss in three tries so far came when he encountered soft ground in the Solario Stakes.
Fast ground is an obvious requirement for Eastern Sun. And, given his physique, there have to be concerns about whether he'll handle a big field or be able to produce his best when not given a rest. All in all though he looks a decent prospect.
ANOTHER HUGE RUN BY FLEMENSTAR - BUT WILL HE STAY?
It's amazing just how much faster a truly top class steeplechaser can run than an average performer. You can see this by comparing the sectional times of the Powers Gold Cup won by FLEMENSTAR (42) and the two and a half furlong longer Beginners Chase on the same card.
From the first to the third fence they went 3.5 seconds faster in Flemenstar's race. By the tenth fence the advantage had grown to 8.0 seconds. By three out it was 9.6 seconds. At the second last Flemenstar was running 12.1 seconds faster. And at the finish he was a monstrous 16.2 seconds ahead.
As you can see from the sectional times Flemenstar kicked into overdrive from the third last. In doing so he quickly opened up a big break on his rivals.
Oddly enough it is this that makes me rather concerned about Flemenstar's future prospects.
Watching him speed away from his opponents I have to say that Flemenstar looked like a two and a half mile specialist running against three milers. I concede he's deep chested and strong, his brother stays three miles and he's won a point to point over three miles himself. But the pace Flemenstar showed in the closing stages suggests to me that two and a half miles is his optimum distance.
Being a two and a half mile specialist is actually no bad thing if my speed ratings are any guide. The top experienced two and a half mile chasers outside of mudlark Rubi Light are a sub par bunch according to my speed ratings. Flemenstar should be able to beat them.
I imagine that Flemenstar will make his comeback next season in the Grade 2 two and a half mile chase at Down Royal in November. He may well not be able to do himself justice there as he's a big horse that must he hard to get fit at home. So far he's won all seven times he's had a run within six weeks and lost all three times he hasn't.
It's going to be interesting to see whether Flemenstar stays three miles. My bet is that he won't. So I see the short prices available about him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup as silly.
Runner up RATHLIN (38) set a searching pace while jumping big and bold bar one mistake. He simply couldn't go with the winner when he kicked clear but kept on well to head the rest by five lengths.
Rathlin showed here that he can act on good ground despite the fact he shows significant knee action. But I think he's always going to be better with cut in the ground. To date he's won all four times he's run two and a half miles or more on soft ground.
Three miles is probably more a natural distance for Rathlin. When he gets soft ground over that sort of trip I can readily see him improving on this effort.
FRENCH FIFTEEN AND ABTAAL PUT UP GREAT GUINEAS TRIALS
Thanks to being run on a straight course, the Prix Djebel is a better trial for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket than for the Poulains (French 2000) at Longchamp. In fact over the last twenty years nine horses that ran first or second in the Prix Djebel have gone on to run in the 2000 Guineas. Three of the nine won (Zafonic, Pennekamp and Makfi).
The Prix Djebel was a red hot race this year. It may well produce the winners of the British, French, German and Italian 2000 Guineas. It featured raiders from Britain, Germany and Italy but developed into a match between the two top colts in France, FRENCH FIFTEEN (40) and ABTAAL (40).
Abtaal is a very good looking horse that impressed me greatly when beating French Fifteen on his final start at two. But I suspected he might be given an easy race in the Prix Djebel, just like many top class horses in French Classic trials.
This is exactly what happened. Abtaal was always moving better than all his rivals. But his jockey never rode him hard and only gave him a single slight tap with the whip during the whole race. French Fifteen on the other hand was scrubbed along vigorously from halfway and received three sharp cracks of the whip from his rider. He ended up edging out Abtaal by a neck.
French Fifteen had the benefit of racing in company down the middle of the course while Abtaal ended up being isolated down on the rail. My feeling is that Abtaal might well have won, despite not being seriously ridden, if he'd been able to race alongside French Fifteen.
French Fifteen clocked a time a tenth of a second slower than the fillies in the Prix Imprudence but covered the last half mile 0.8 of a second faster. My sectional timing formula says that makes this a seriously good Group 1 performance by both him and Abtaal and worth a rating of 40 for both.
For comparison here are the other colts that have earned ratings of 40 or higher from me in Guineas Trials since 2003:
Canford Cliffs........................41
Dick Turpin...........................41
Frankel................................41
Naaqoos..............................40
Le Havre..............................40
Refuse To Bend....................40
Naaqoos went wrong. But the other five all went on to win Group 1 races.
Abtaal may well be a better horse than French Fifteen. But French Fifteen put up one of the best Guineas trials we've seen in the last decade here. He clearly had trouble with the quickening pace at halfway as he lost quite a bit of ground. He didn't look that comfortable with the near sprint finish either and seemed to have trouble staying balanced and coordinated at the pace he was travelling. He hung left about a furlong out and hampered British raider Rockinante. But mostly I think this was because he was wanting to get across to run next to the rail like many horses prefer (especially inexperienced ones).
If French Fifteen hadn't bumped into Abtaal and run second in one race at two this would have been his seventh win in a row. In that loss French Fifteen pulled hard and raced with his head too high. The application of a sheepskin noseband seems to have corrected that problem, though he's obviously still a little hard to steer.
French Fifteen was purchased recently by Sheikh Abdullah Bin Khalifa Al Thani who sponsors the British Champions Series through his company Qipco. Clearly the Sheikh's aim was to find a suitable horse for the first leg of the series, the 2000 Guineas. This run says he's certainly achieved that objective.
The 14-1 you can get about French Fifteen for the 2000 Guineas looks way too big to me. I very much doubt that we'll see a better performance in a Guineas Trial than this.
If you want something to worry about it is the fact that there are several indications French Fifteen may prefer longer than a mile. His pedigree suggests ten furlongs would be better. And the way he got outpaced then stayed on strongly in the Prix Djebel points the same way. Finally there is the fact he ran twice over a mile at two - something only two 2000 Guineas winners have done in the last fourty years (Dancing Brave and Frankel - two of the very best winners in that period).
On balance though it's hard to get away from the fact that French Fifteen put up a Group 1 class performance in the Prix Djebel over seven furlongs despite a slightly slow early pace and near sprint finish. Over the extra furlong of the Guineas it's hard to argue he won't reproduce this level of form or even better it.
Runner up Abtaal was turned a little sideways just over a furlong out and stumbled slightly as a result when the very green Al Malek bumped into his back end. Clearly he did not have the run of the race.
Previously I'd thought that Abtaal might need to go up to middle distances as he's such a strong, muscular sort. But I remember thinking the same about his sire Rock Hard Ten and that one ended up cutting back to seven furlongs to win the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes in California (though he also stayed ten furlongs as I think Abtaal will).
The acceleration that Abtaal showed on his final 2YO start and the ease with which he coped with the quickening pace here tell me that he has no problem going seven furlongs or a mile.
Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget says that the 2000 Guineas is not ruled out for Abtaal. But his connections must be acutely aware that their horse will start a warm favourite for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains with his only serious rival French Fifteen heading to Newmarket. I'd love to take the 20-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Guineas but the percentage play is to shoot for the French race.
I liked the way that HERMIVAL (38) picked up strongly late to chase the first two with enthusiasm while pulling nearly three lengths clear of the rest. This muscular, well proportioned sort had won a hot mile maiden at Saint-Cloud on his previous start and clearly has a good deal of ability. His connections are also considering a shot at the 2000 Guineas and I can't rule him out of consideration on this run which would have won most Guineas trials.
Fourth placed ROCKINANTE (36) is a pretty big, good looking sort. He got to the lead two furlongs out but was tiring when the winner cut across him with a furlong to run and forced him to be checked. He won a Group 3 over a mile at two, but his physique and the speed he showed here makes me think his assistant trainer's suggestion of the seven furlong Jersey Stakes as a target is spot on. Then again he may simply have blown up through lack of fitness. In which case the option of the Italian Guineas also mooted by his assistant trainer looks good too.
Fifth placed AL MALEK (36) is a big, muscular, mature, classy sort that looks built to produce serious speed. He was sweating and rather keen in the early stages but was still moving strongly at halfway. He got unbalanced and hung rather badly from two furlongs out, drifted right across to the rail and ran into the back of Abtaal. Then he picked up again nicely in the final furlong when he had the rail to guide him.
Al Malek won a maiden on Deauville's Fibresand on his sole two year old start then romped home by thirteen lengths at Krefeld on his 3YO debut. My thinking is that he's probably going to be best, at least for now, around relatively tight turning courses like those because they enforce some kind of restraint. He pulled too hard and ran all over the place when seeing the big wide open spaces of Maisons-Laffitte's straight course here. This being so he looks a very good prospect for the German 2000 Guineas at Cologne, one of the tightest tracks in Germany.
MASHOORA HAS REAL SHOT IN 1000 GUINEAS
I've noted before that the massive shift in racing economies means that France is likely to become the dominant force in European racing over the next few seasons.
Back in 2010 France won both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Following the success of Mashoora in the Prix Imprudence a repeat looks a real possibility. After all the Prix Djebel showed that France has two very strong contenders for the 2000 Guineas in French Fifteen and Abtaal. And on the same Maisons-Laffitte card MASHOORA (38) certainly showed enough ability to win an average 1000 Guineas when taking the Prix Imprudence.
Held up in last off the good early gallop set by Misdargent, Mashoora picked up well from two furlongs out to lead around a furlong out and go a length and a quarter up rather quickly while moving better than her rivals.
Inside the last furlong Mashoora's jockey Cristophe Soumillon took four looks over his shoulder before easing his mount close home. From being a length and a quarter up with five strides to go she won by a neck. I'm rating her as a length and a quarter winner which I think is fair.
Mashoora is a rather big, quite tall, rangy filly that might get ten furlongs on looks. But she's such a keen going sort I'd be wary of betting her beyond a mile at this stage.
On her debut Mashoora had trouble going the strong early pace in a good six furlong maiden at Deauville. But she came through strongly late and kicked clear to win comfortably despite running green when she first hit the front.
Next time out Mashoora pulled hard early when stepped up to seven furlongs and got beat by Elusive Kate in the Group 3 Prix du Calvados. Soumillon made sure she found cover early next time when she looked certain to win until just nailed on the line in a head bobber with Boldogsag in the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs over a mile.
I can see why trainer Jean-Claude Rouget is keen to take Mashoora to Newmarket for the Guineas rather than Longchamp for the Pouliches. The likely stronger early pace at Newmarket will help her settle just as it did in the Prix Imprudence.
It's worth noting that horses which reached the first three in the Prix Imprudence have done well when they've gone on to run in the 1000 Guineas over the last thirty years, as you can see from their record below:
2011...Moonlight Cloud............seventh
2010...Special Duty..................WON 9-2
2008...Natagora........................WON 11-4
2003...Six Perfections................second
2001...Stunning..........................seventh
1997...Pas De Reponse..............fourth
1995...Macoumba......................sixth
1994...Coup de Genie.................third
1993...Wixon..............................eleventh
............Elizabeth Bay...................eighth
1992....Hatoof.............................WON 5-1
............Kenbu.............................third
1988...Ravinella...........................WON 4-5
1987...Miesque............................WON 15-8
1985...Antartica.............................fourteenth
............Vilikaia..............................fourth
1983...Ma Biche...........................WON 5-2
Six wins from seventeen tries in fourteen renewals of the 1000 Guineas is not bad at all. It certainly suggests that the 14-1 the bookies are offering about Mashoora's chances at Newmarket is very generous.
Runner up BELLE DE LUNE (37) had to weave her way through the field as she picked up from second last place but never had to break stride. She's a medium sized filly with the build of a ten furlong performer in my view. So I think the good early pace helped bring her stamina into play. So far she has yet to run beyond seven and a half furlongs. But her full sister scored her two wins over ten furlongs. Belle De Lune's only previous win came in a strongly run All Weather maiden over seven and a half furlongs at Pau. Over a longer distance I can see her winning in Group company.
GIOFRA IS A SERIOUS ARC PROSPECT
Before this year eight fillies had won the Prix d'Harcourt. And if Trillion and Pistol Packer hadn't bumped into all time greats Alleged and Mill Reef in Europe's top race and run second, five of the eight would have been Arc winners.
GIOFRA (42) would have to be supplemented for the Arc. But that looks rather a good idea following her impressive win in this year's Prix d'Harcourt.
The early pace in the Prix d'Harcourt was unsustainably fast due to War Is War and Poet engaging in a ferocious duel for the lead. Maxime Guyon sensibly held up Giofra in third a long way behind this pair. When they began to tire he asked her for an effort and she rocketed forwards, blasted by the front runners and scored by three lengths, full of running.
Giofra lost her racecourse debut but has won her three subsequent starts at eight, nine and ten furlongs. I've no doubt that she'll stay a mile and a half given the way she was finishing here off a searching early pace.
Last year Giofra was unable to take up her entries in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary and Prix de Diane due to leg problems. Currently she holds no big race engagements.
I imagine the plan will be to supplement her for the Prix Ganay and then aim for the Arc by way of the Prix Vermeille. Before then there has to be a big chance Giofra will be sold as she's still owned by the stud farm that bred her, Haras de la Perelle. After this win their phone is going to be ringing off the hook.
Runner up VADAMAR (39) would have earned some big write ups for what would have been an impressive win if only Giofra hadn't been in the race. He came from out of the pack and simply flew away from the rest of the field in the final furlong.
Vadamar is average sized at 1056 pounds but does not seem able to cope with the traffic in anything but small fields. He ran into the back of another horse and had to be snatched up two furlongs out then needed to be checked slightly again when the winner Pour Moi ran across him in the nine runner Prix Greffulhe. He had to be switched for a run in the thirteen runner Epsom Derby. And in the thirteen runner Hong Kong Vase he was hampered two and a half furlongs out then again ran into the back of another horse just like he had in the Prix Greffulhe.
If he hadn't encountered a top class rival here Vadamar would have won four of the five times he's run in fields smaller than nine. He looked to be crying out for the step back up to a mile and a half.
Vadamar has already won a Group 2 but needs to gain a Group 1 win to secure his future as a stallion. His best option for that is surely the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud which often features a small field.
BEAUVOIR SMART BUT A TRICKY RIDE
Sometimes it's not really an advantage for a jockey to be riding a horse that's massively superior to its rivals. Christophe Lemaire found this out on BEAUVOIR (35) in the Prix la Force.
On his first start Beauvoir had led just fifty yards from the finish. On his second he didn't hit the front till 110 yards out. Both times he'd won in really good style, especially on his second outing when he ran the final furlong in slightly under 11 seconds despite only being ridden out with hands and heels.
In the Prix La Force Beauvoir was provided with a pacemaker, presumably to ensure he didn't hit the front too soon in a field full of hold up horses.
Unfortunately things went wrong right away, mostly because his pacemaker had the widest draw. The stalls opened and Beauvoir was in the lead. His pacemaker was hustled up on the outside to pass him after a hundred yards. But the damage was done because Beauvoir raced rather keenly thereafter and Lemaire couldn't wrestle him further back than second place.
Soon after entering the home straight Beauvoir was going so well that he simply cruised his way to the front with over two furlongs left to run. With less than half a furlong to go he was still cruising and over a length ahead when Lemaire gave him a single crack of the whip. This was presumably to get him to focus and learn a bit by extending himself, since he had the race in safe keeping at that point.
The result was disastrous. Beauvoir responded to being hit with the whip by flashing his tail and pulling himself up, losing ground rapidly in the dying strides to finish third in a three way photo.
On his debut, when he hadn't hit the front till very late Beauvoir took three cracks of the whip without flinching in the final furlong. I think it was the fact he'd been in front for so long that prompted him to down tools when asked to accelerate in the closing stages here.
It's natural for horses to ease themselves up when they've been in front for a long time. They're responding to an instinct that tells them they're vulnerable to a predator if they leave the safety of the herd. Horses can overcome this instinct with experience but Beauvoir has only had three runs.
On his last run Beauvoir beat Coup De Theatre a length and a half, and that one went on to win a Listed race earning a speed rating of 38 from me. My feeling is that Beauvoir would have earned that sort of rating here if things had fallen into place for him.
This run has to dampen enthusiasm for Beauvoir. But it also highlights the fact that he seems to have any amount of ability. And I don't think it means he can't win the Prix du Jockey Club. The big field he'll meet in that race should ensure he'll find the cover he needs to deliver his ultra-late run. And even if he continues his quirky behaviour it should be remembered that quite a few high class horses have flaws. Last year for example, Meandre, a horse that simply wouldn't go through gaps between runners, won the Grand Prix de Paris.
Beauvoir is a pretty big, mature, good looking horse that has a serious turn of foot. I'd like to see a decent sized field for his next engagement, the Prix Greffulhe, plus a pacemaker to ensure he gets the cover he needs. He should go really well there.
NAZREEF (38) clocked a Group class time when winning a good one mile handicap on Kempton's Polytrack. He made almost all the running, hung fire briefly entering the straight but then picked up again strongly in the final furlong after he'd drifted towards the stands rail and had that to guide him.
So far Nazreef has won six of the seven times he's run a mile on the All Weather with his sole loss coming the one time he tried Lingfield. He's clearly not as good on grass. And his handicap mark is now prohibitively high for the AW. So, with no Group races for him to aim at over a mile on the AW in Britain or Ireland, he surely needs to start travelling.
Nazreef could pick up a lot of money in races on synthetic surfaces in America. That's surely where he should be racing from now on.
EASTERN SUN IS USEFUL
EASTERN SUN (37) clocked a time that rates between Listed and Group 3 class for an early season 3YO when winning a good conditions race on Kempton's Polytrack.
Kept very wide down the backstretch so that he could gain ground and tack over to lead entering the turn, Eastern Sun was always going well and picked up strongly up the straight to win by nearly two lengths.
Eastern Sun looked a little bit stretched by the pace over a mile here. So I'm thinking he may end up being better over ten furlongs (something his trainer suggested before the race). His sire was a sprinter but his dam ran second in the Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger).
Eastern Sun is a medium sized, rather light-framed colt with a fast ground action. His only loss in three tries so far came when he encountered soft ground in the Solario Stakes.
Fast ground is an obvious requirement for Eastern Sun. And, given his physique, there have to be concerns about whether he'll handle a big field or be able to produce his best when not given a rest. All in all though he looks a decent prospect.
ANOTHER HUGE RUN BY FLEMENSTAR - BUT WILL HE STAY?
It's amazing just how much faster a truly top class steeplechaser can run than an average performer. You can see this by comparing the sectional times of the Powers Gold Cup won by FLEMENSTAR (42) and the two and a half furlong longer Beginners Chase on the same card.
From the first to the third fence they went 3.5 seconds faster in Flemenstar's race. By the tenth fence the advantage had grown to 8.0 seconds. By three out it was 9.6 seconds. At the second last Flemenstar was running 12.1 seconds faster. And at the finish he was a monstrous 16.2 seconds ahead.
As you can see from the sectional times Flemenstar kicked into overdrive from the third last. In doing so he quickly opened up a big break on his rivals.
Oddly enough it is this that makes me rather concerned about Flemenstar's future prospects.
Watching him speed away from his opponents I have to say that Flemenstar looked like a two and a half mile specialist running against three milers. I concede he's deep chested and strong, his brother stays three miles and he's won a point to point over three miles himself. But the pace Flemenstar showed in the closing stages suggests to me that two and a half miles is his optimum distance.
Being a two and a half mile specialist is actually no bad thing if my speed ratings are any guide. The top experienced two and a half mile chasers outside of mudlark Rubi Light are a sub par bunch according to my speed ratings. Flemenstar should be able to beat them.
I imagine that Flemenstar will make his comeback next season in the Grade 2 two and a half mile chase at Down Royal in November. He may well not be able to do himself justice there as he's a big horse that must he hard to get fit at home. So far he's won all seven times he's had a run within six weeks and lost all three times he hasn't.
It's going to be interesting to see whether Flemenstar stays three miles. My bet is that he won't. So I see the short prices available about him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup as silly.
Runner up RATHLIN (38) set a searching pace while jumping big and bold bar one mistake. He simply couldn't go with the winner when he kicked clear but kept on well to head the rest by five lengths.
Rathlin showed here that he can act on good ground despite the fact he shows significant knee action. But I think he's always going to be better with cut in the ground. To date he's won all four times he's run two and a half miles or more on soft ground.
Three miles is probably more a natural distance for Rathlin. When he gets soft ground over that sort of trip I can readily see him improving on this effort.
FRENCH FIFTEEN AND ABTAAL PUT UP GREAT GUINEAS TRIALS
Thanks to being run on a straight course, the Prix Djebel is a better trial for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket than for the Poulains (French 2000) at Longchamp. In fact over the last twenty years nine horses that ran first or second in the Prix Djebel have gone on to run in the 2000 Guineas. Three of the nine won (Zafonic, Pennekamp and Makfi).
The Prix Djebel was a red hot race this year. It may well produce the winners of the British, French, German and Italian 2000 Guineas. It featured raiders from Britain, Germany and Italy but developed into a match between the two top colts in France, FRENCH FIFTEEN (40) and ABTAAL (40).
Abtaal is a very good looking horse that impressed me greatly when beating French Fifteen on his final start at two. But I suspected he might be given an easy race in the Prix Djebel, just like many top class horses in French Classic trials.
This is exactly what happened. Abtaal was always moving better than all his rivals. But his jockey never rode him hard and only gave him a single slight tap with the whip during the whole race. French Fifteen on the other hand was scrubbed along vigorously from halfway and received three sharp cracks of the whip from his rider. He ended up edging out Abtaal by a neck.
French Fifteen had the benefit of racing in company down the middle of the course while Abtaal ended up being isolated down on the rail. My feeling is that Abtaal might well have won, despite not being seriously ridden, if he'd been able to race alongside French Fifteen.
French Fifteen clocked a time a tenth of a second slower than the fillies in the Prix Imprudence but covered the last half mile 0.8 of a second faster. My sectional timing formula says that makes this a seriously good Group 1 performance by both him and Abtaal and worth a rating of 40 for both.
For comparison here are the other colts that have earned ratings of 40 or higher from me in Guineas Trials since 2003:
Canford Cliffs........................41
Dick Turpin...........................41
Frankel................................41
Naaqoos..............................40
Le Havre..............................40
Refuse To Bend....................40
Naaqoos went wrong. But the other five all went on to win Group 1 races.
Abtaal may well be a better horse than French Fifteen. But French Fifteen put up one of the best Guineas trials we've seen in the last decade here. He clearly had trouble with the quickening pace at halfway as he lost quite a bit of ground. He didn't look that comfortable with the near sprint finish either and seemed to have trouble staying balanced and coordinated at the pace he was travelling. He hung left about a furlong out and hampered British raider Rockinante. But mostly I think this was because he was wanting to get across to run next to the rail like many horses prefer (especially inexperienced ones).
If French Fifteen hadn't bumped into Abtaal and run second in one race at two this would have been his seventh win in a row. In that loss French Fifteen pulled hard and raced with his head too high. The application of a sheepskin noseband seems to have corrected that problem, though he's obviously still a little hard to steer.
French Fifteen was purchased recently by Sheikh Abdullah Bin Khalifa Al Thani who sponsors the British Champions Series through his company Qipco. Clearly the Sheikh's aim was to find a suitable horse for the first leg of the series, the 2000 Guineas. This run says he's certainly achieved that objective.
The 14-1 you can get about French Fifteen for the 2000 Guineas looks way too big to me. I very much doubt that we'll see a better performance in a Guineas Trial than this.
If you want something to worry about it is the fact that there are several indications French Fifteen may prefer longer than a mile. His pedigree suggests ten furlongs would be better. And the way he got outpaced then stayed on strongly in the Prix Djebel points the same way. Finally there is the fact he ran twice over a mile at two - something only two 2000 Guineas winners have done in the last fourty years (Dancing Brave and Frankel - two of the very best winners in that period).
On balance though it's hard to get away from the fact that French Fifteen put up a Group 1 class performance in the Prix Djebel over seven furlongs despite a slightly slow early pace and near sprint finish. Over the extra furlong of the Guineas it's hard to argue he won't reproduce this level of form or even better it.
Runner up Abtaal was turned a little sideways just over a furlong out and stumbled slightly as a result when the very green Al Malek bumped into his back end. Clearly he did not have the run of the race.
Previously I'd thought that Abtaal might need to go up to middle distances as he's such a strong, muscular sort. But I remember thinking the same about his sire Rock Hard Ten and that one ended up cutting back to seven furlongs to win the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes in California (though he also stayed ten furlongs as I think Abtaal will).
The acceleration that Abtaal showed on his final 2YO start and the ease with which he coped with the quickening pace here tell me that he has no problem going seven furlongs or a mile.
Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget says that the 2000 Guineas is not ruled out for Abtaal. But his connections must be acutely aware that their horse will start a warm favourite for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains with his only serious rival French Fifteen heading to Newmarket. I'd love to take the 20-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Guineas but the percentage play is to shoot for the French race.
I liked the way that HERMIVAL (38) picked up strongly late to chase the first two with enthusiasm while pulling nearly three lengths clear of the rest. This muscular, well proportioned sort had won a hot mile maiden at Saint-Cloud on his previous start and clearly has a good deal of ability. His connections are also considering a shot at the 2000 Guineas and I can't rule him out of consideration on this run which would have won most Guineas trials.
Fourth placed ROCKINANTE (36) is a pretty big, good looking sort. He got to the lead two furlongs out but was tiring when the winner cut across him with a furlong to run and forced him to be checked. He won a Group 3 over a mile at two, but his physique and the speed he showed here makes me think his assistant trainer's suggestion of the seven furlong Jersey Stakes as a target is spot on. Then again he may simply have blown up through lack of fitness. In which case the option of the Italian Guineas also mooted by his assistant trainer looks good too.
Fifth placed AL MALEK (36) is a big, muscular, mature, classy sort that looks built to produce serious speed. He was sweating and rather keen in the early stages but was still moving strongly at halfway. He got unbalanced and hung rather badly from two furlongs out, drifted right across to the rail and ran into the back of Abtaal. Then he picked up again nicely in the final furlong when he had the rail to guide him.
Al Malek won a maiden on Deauville's Fibresand on his sole two year old start then romped home by thirteen lengths at Krefeld on his 3YO debut. My thinking is that he's probably going to be best, at least for now, around relatively tight turning courses like those because they enforce some kind of restraint. He pulled too hard and ran all over the place when seeing the big wide open spaces of Maisons-Laffitte's straight course here. This being so he looks a very good prospect for the German 2000 Guineas at Cologne, one of the tightest tracks in Germany.
MASHOORA HAS REAL SHOT IN 1000 GUINEAS
I've noted before that the massive shift in racing economies means that France is likely to become the dominant force in European racing over the next few seasons.
Back in 2010 France won both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Following the success of Mashoora in the Prix Imprudence a repeat looks a real possibility. After all the Prix Djebel showed that France has two very strong contenders for the 2000 Guineas in French Fifteen and Abtaal. And on the same Maisons-Laffitte card MASHOORA (38) certainly showed enough ability to win an average 1000 Guineas when taking the Prix Imprudence.
Held up in last off the good early gallop set by Misdargent, Mashoora picked up well from two furlongs out to lead around a furlong out and go a length and a quarter up rather quickly while moving better than her rivals.
Inside the last furlong Mashoora's jockey Cristophe Soumillon took four looks over his shoulder before easing his mount close home. From being a length and a quarter up with five strides to go she won by a neck. I'm rating her as a length and a quarter winner which I think is fair.
Mashoora is a rather big, quite tall, rangy filly that might get ten furlongs on looks. But she's such a keen going sort I'd be wary of betting her beyond a mile at this stage.
On her debut Mashoora had trouble going the strong early pace in a good six furlong maiden at Deauville. But she came through strongly late and kicked clear to win comfortably despite running green when she first hit the front.
Next time out Mashoora pulled hard early when stepped up to seven furlongs and got beat by Elusive Kate in the Group 3 Prix du Calvados. Soumillon made sure she found cover early next time when she looked certain to win until just nailed on the line in a head bobber with Boldogsag in the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs over a mile.
I can see why trainer Jean-Claude Rouget is keen to take Mashoora to Newmarket for the Guineas rather than Longchamp for the Pouliches. The likely stronger early pace at Newmarket will help her settle just as it did in the Prix Imprudence.
It's worth noting that horses which reached the first three in the Prix Imprudence have done well when they've gone on to run in the 1000 Guineas over the last thirty years, as you can see from their record below:
2011...Moonlight Cloud............seventh
2010...Special Duty..................WON 9-2
2008...Natagora........................WON 11-4
2003...Six Perfections................second
2001...Stunning..........................seventh
1997...Pas De Reponse..............fourth
1995...Macoumba......................sixth
1994...Coup de Genie.................third
1993...Wixon..............................eleventh
............Elizabeth Bay...................eighth
1992....Hatoof.............................WON 5-1
............Kenbu.............................third
1988...Ravinella...........................WON 4-5
1987...Miesque............................WON 15-8
1985...Antartica.............................fourteenth
............Vilikaia..............................fourth
1983...Ma Biche...........................WON 5-2
Six wins from seventeen tries in fourteen renewals of the 1000 Guineas is not bad at all. It certainly suggests that the 14-1 the bookies are offering about Mashoora's chances at Newmarket is very generous.
Runner up BELLE DE LUNE (37) had to weave her way through the field as she picked up from second last place but never had to break stride. She's a medium sized filly with the build of a ten furlong performer in my view. So I think the good early pace helped bring her stamina into play. So far she has yet to run beyond seven and a half furlongs. But her full sister scored her two wins over ten furlongs. Belle De Lune's only previous win came in a strongly run All Weather maiden over seven and a half furlongs at Pau. Over a longer distance I can see her winning in Group company.
GIOFRA IS A SERIOUS ARC PROSPECT
Before this year eight fillies had won the Prix d'Harcourt. And if Trillion and Pistol Packer hadn't bumped into all time greats Alleged and Mill Reef in Europe's top race and run second, five of the eight would have been Arc winners.
GIOFRA (42) would have to be supplemented for the Arc. But that looks rather a good idea following her impressive win in this year's Prix d'Harcourt.
The early pace in the Prix d'Harcourt was unsustainably fast due to War Is War and Poet engaging in a ferocious duel for the lead. Maxime Guyon sensibly held up Giofra in third a long way behind this pair. When they began to tire he asked her for an effort and she rocketed forwards, blasted by the front runners and scored by three lengths, full of running.
Giofra lost her racecourse debut but has won her three subsequent starts at eight, nine and ten furlongs. I've no doubt that she'll stay a mile and a half given the way she was finishing here off a searching early pace.
Last year Giofra was unable to take up her entries in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary and Prix de Diane due to leg problems. Currently she holds no big race engagements.
I imagine the plan will be to supplement her for the Prix Ganay and then aim for the Arc by way of the Prix Vermeille. Before then there has to be a big chance Giofra will be sold as she's still owned by the stud farm that bred her, Haras de la Perelle. After this win their phone is going to be ringing off the hook.
Runner up VADAMAR (39) would have earned some big write ups for what would have been an impressive win if only Giofra hadn't been in the race. He came from out of the pack and simply flew away from the rest of the field in the final furlong.
Vadamar is average sized at 1056 pounds but does not seem able to cope with the traffic in anything but small fields. He ran into the back of another horse and had to be snatched up two furlongs out then needed to be checked slightly again when the winner Pour Moi ran across him in the nine runner Prix Greffulhe. He had to be switched for a run in the thirteen runner Epsom Derby. And in the thirteen runner Hong Kong Vase he was hampered two and a half furlongs out then again ran into the back of another horse just like he had in the Prix Greffulhe.
If he hadn't encountered a top class rival here Vadamar would have won four of the five times he's run in fields smaller than nine. He looked to be crying out for the step back up to a mile and a half.
Vadamar has already won a Group 2 but needs to gain a Group 1 win to secure his future as a stallion. His best option for that is surely the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud which often features a small field.
BEAUVOIR SMART BUT A TRICKY RIDE
Sometimes it's not really an advantage for a jockey to be riding a horse that's massively superior to its rivals. Christophe Lemaire found this out on BEAUVOIR (35) in the Prix la Force.
On his first start Beauvoir had led just fifty yards from the finish. On his second he didn't hit the front till 110 yards out. Both times he'd won in really good style, especially on his second outing when he ran the final furlong in slightly under 11 seconds despite only being ridden out with hands and heels.
In the Prix La Force Beauvoir was provided with a pacemaker, presumably to ensure he didn't hit the front too soon in a field full of hold up horses.
Unfortunately things went wrong right away, mostly because his pacemaker had the widest draw. The stalls opened and Beauvoir was in the lead. His pacemaker was hustled up on the outside to pass him after a hundred yards. But the damage was done because Beauvoir raced rather keenly thereafter and Lemaire couldn't wrestle him further back than second place.
Soon after entering the home straight Beauvoir was going so well that he simply cruised his way to the front with over two furlongs left to run. With less than half a furlong to go he was still cruising and over a length ahead when Lemaire gave him a single crack of the whip. This was presumably to get him to focus and learn a bit by extending himself, since he had the race in safe keeping at that point.
The result was disastrous. Beauvoir responded to being hit with the whip by flashing his tail and pulling himself up, losing ground rapidly in the dying strides to finish third in a three way photo.
On his debut, when he hadn't hit the front till very late Beauvoir took three cracks of the whip without flinching in the final furlong. I think it was the fact he'd been in front for so long that prompted him to down tools when asked to accelerate in the closing stages here.
It's natural for horses to ease themselves up when they've been in front for a long time. They're responding to an instinct that tells them they're vulnerable to a predator if they leave the safety of the herd. Horses can overcome this instinct with experience but Beauvoir has only had three runs.
On his last run Beauvoir beat Coup De Theatre a length and a half, and that one went on to win a Listed race earning a speed rating of 38 from me. My feeling is that Beauvoir would have earned that sort of rating here if things had fallen into place for him.
This run has to dampen enthusiasm for Beauvoir. But it also highlights the fact that he seems to have any amount of ability. And I don't think it means he can't win the Prix du Jockey Club. The big field he'll meet in that race should ensure he'll find the cover he needs to deliver his ultra-late run. And even if he continues his quirky behaviour it should be remembered that quite a few high class horses have flaws. Last year for example, Meandre, a horse that simply wouldn't go through gaps between runners, won the Grand Prix de Paris.
Beauvoir is a pretty big, mature, good looking horse that has a serious turn of foot. I'd like to see a decent sized field for his next engagement, the Prix Greffulhe, plus a pacemaker to ensure he gets the cover he needs. He should go really well there.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
And yet on Betfair French Fifteen and Abtaal are available at 15 and 25 respectively. Surely at least one of them will be at Newmarket.
S
SlimChance
Guest
Just read his Guineas thoughts in the Irish field. It's too much guessing with these French horses as to their running arrangements.