ASCOT SECTIONAL TIMES WERE GREAT - MORE PLEASE
Every week I spend a foolish amount of time fiddling around with a stopwatch and internet or TV videos of races to clock their sectional times.
This week, thanks to the organisers of the Qipco Champions Series and Turftrax, I was saved from this onerous task for the big races on Champions Day at Ascot. They provided sectional times which were far more detailed and accurate than I could ever hope to produce. (You can view them at
http://www.attheraces.com/bcd/raceindex.aspx?sub=sectional&hlid=519644).
I would love to see Turftrax sectional times for every British and Irish race meeting. They make it far easier to produce accurate speed ratings. In addition, they can include precise data on just how far each horse ran. For Britain and Ireland this would be a huge leap forward because the official distances of races are inaccurate, often greatly so.
British and Irish racing officials I've spoken to in the past always cite economics as the main reason for not introducing innovations such as sectional timing.
I've never understood this stance because experience around the world shows that the more information you give to punters the more they are likely to bet. As the famous advertising writer John Caples once said "the more you tell the more you sell."
CIRRUS FINALLY GETS THAT GROUP 1
In the last 35 renewals of the Champion Stakes there have been 22 where French horses lined up. The French horses won an amazing 12 of these 22 times from a total of just 35 runners. You’d have made a huge profit betting them all blindly.
I’m not sure just why French horses have done so well in the Champion Stakes. Most likely it’s because they’re fresher at the tail end of the season than the British and Irish runners due to the slower early pace of French races making their outings less taxing.
Even so my ratings suggest that this year's Champion Stakes winner CIRRUS DES AIGLES (43) would have scored whatever time of year the race was run. He was always moving well and looked a big threat turning in along with Snow Fairy who was racing on his inside.
Ian Mongan on Twice Over tried to hold Cirrus des Aigles in but the French horse had too much pace and escaped the trap. In doing so though he was forced closer to Snow Fairy who in turn got boxed in until Cirrus Des Aigles kicked on to duel and eventually pass So You Think.
I suggested after his win in the Grand Prix de Deauville that Cirrus Des Aigles was the best middle distance horse in Europe despite not having won a Group 1. This win goes a long way towards putting that view in the mainstream.
Cirrus Des Aigles is a remarkably versatile horse. This season he's shown top class form at distances from nine and a quarter to twelve and a half furlongs. He's done so on firm ground and heavy, off a strong pace and a very slow one and around tight courses and galloping ones. He seems to be an incredibly sound horse too that can take any amount of racing.
The only quirk that Cirrus des Aigles has is that he needs a recent run to reach full fitness
He's lost all ten times he's come into a race off a break longer than 31 days but would have won fourteen of the last fifteen times he's returned within 31 days if four photos had gone his way.
Trainer Corrine Barande-Barbe feels that Cirrus des Aigles has already done a lot this year and plans on running him just once more in the Hong Kong Cup. The trouble is that's eight weeks away. Given his record I'd have thought he'd need a warm up race to have a shot there.
Cirrus des Aigles should be back next year when he'll obviously be a big threat to take any of the top races. He's a formidable opponent that is very hard to beat. I'd like to see him tackle Frankel over ten furlongs at some stage. His tenacity and ability to quicken makes him the horse I'd nominate as most likely to trouble Khalid Abdullah’s star performer.
Runner up SO YOU THINK (42) is rather like Cirrus des Aigles in that he's shown he can take a lot of racing. Where he differs is that he just lacks that vital turn of foot which is so often decisive in the very top races in Europe.
On dirt it's a different matter. Horses do most of their running early on dirt. Endurance rather than acceleration is the name of the game. For this reason I stick to my view that the Breeders' Cup Classic is an attractive option for So You Think. The US candidates for the race are universally acknowledged by American pundits to be the weakest group they've fielded in many years. If So You Think can show anywhere near this level of form on dirt he should be able to beat them. His physique, stride pattern running style and pedigree all point to him being able to handle the surface more likely than not.
I agree with the general view that third placed SNOW FAIRY (41) might well have gotten up for second but for her traffic problems. There's clearly very little between her and So You Think as they've finished with half a length of each other the last three times they've met. She remains on target for her double attempt in the QEII Commemorative Cup in Japan next month where she is set to meet Dancing Ran who won earlier on the card.
MIDDAY (40) is a wonderfully consistent mare. The ground was probably a bit too fast for her and she hung left and right in the closing stages, as she so often has in the last two seasons. But she kept on strongly to take fourth.
NATHANIEL (40) surprised me by keeping on well enough to hold fifth place and equal the rating I'd given him for his King George win. I thought the fast ground and cut back to ten furlongs were against him. If they were then he's going to be improving on this effort over longer or on softer ground if he's kept in training.
GREEN DESTINY (38) was last of the twelve runners turning in but picked up strongly to finish sixth despite meeting a bit of traffic. This run shows he doesn't have a problem with fast ground and confirms earlier impressions that he'll be suited by a step up to a mile and a half.
FRANKEL FANTASTIC
Thanks to the Turftrax sectional times I know why Frankel didn't clock a fast time when bolting up in the QEII last Saturday.
The sectional times show that the field basically ignored the pacemaker Bullet Train and went much too slow for the first three furlongs to have a chance of clocking a good time.
If I ignore Bullet Train, rate the race on the time the rest of the runners took to cover the last five furlongs and invoke my sectional timing formula I get a huge rating for FRANKEL (46) that's in line with what he's earned from me before.
The race was over as soon as Frankel surged to the front. But he did look just a little uncomfortable with the way he was asked to pack so much of his running into the last half of the race.
When he steps up to middle distances next year I think Frankel is going to need a pacemaker and will do best if ridden closer to the pace than he was here. With middle distances there's more scope for a lopsidedly slow early pace and a wild sprint finish than there is over a mile. I can see Frankel losing his unbeaten record by getting caught flat footed in these circumstances. He has a huge stride which makes him take longer than most horses to build up a full head of steam.
Indeed, brilliant as he is, I do believe Frankel's lack of push button acceleration is going to prove his undoing at some point. Couple this with the way he has a habit of being too keen for his own good when he sees too much daylight and he's obviously a very tricky ride.
That said, Frankel is the joint best flat racer of the last decade or more on my ratings, along with Falbrav.
Falbrav was a great horse who won Group 1 races in five different countries at distances ranging from a mile to a mile and a half. But, like all horses, he had his limitations. He didn't truly stay twelve furlongs and needed fast ground.
Frankel's Achilles heel is the fact he lengthens rather than quickens. This is surely going to get him beat sometime. But it doesn't stop me looking forward to his next season with great anticipation. His long stride, stout pedigree and rangy physique make him look nailed on to get at least a mile and a quarter. It's going to be fascinating to see him in action in longer races like the Eclipse and Champion Stakes.
Runner up EXCELEBRATION (42) must be getting sick of the sight of Frankel's backside. If he hadn't bumped into Cecil's freakishly good performer and had a clear run in the St James's Palace Stakes he'd probably have won his last eight starts.
Excelebration picked up nicely here and has shown before that he does that well off a slow early pace. He remains a very strong contender for the Breeders' Cup Mile as he showed in Germany just how well he copes with a tight course and sprint finish - those being the circumstances he'll be facing at Churchill Downs. That said. I can see how his connections might want to opt for the Hong Kong Mile instead as this means they'll be able to sidestep another all time great in Goldikova.
DANCING RAIN HAS A REAL SHOT OF BEATING SNOW FAIRY IN JAPAN
Back in 2009 Queen Spumante seemed to be given too much rope by her rivals when making all the running, most of it in a huge lead, to take the QEII Commemorative Cup, the world's riches race for fillies, in Japan.
DANCING RAIN (41) will almost certainly attempt to emulate her when she ships over to Japan for the race next month. She showed once more when taking the Qipco British Champion Fillies' and Mares' Stakes that she's awfully tough to pass when making the running.
The rating Dancing Rain earned from me here is the same I normally give the best 3YO middle distance fillies each season. Only Galikova has equalled it this term and Sarafina last season.
We probably won't find out how good she is till she tackles males next season in the top races. Meanwhile she looks just as strong a contender for the Japanese race as Snow Fairy but will likely start at bigger odds.
Runner up BIBLE BELT (40) has always looked likely to be suited by a step up to a mile and a half. She stayed on strongly and came out of the pack to chase the winner home, earning a rating from me that would win most Group 1's for fillies, not for the first time either.
It's actually good for racing that Bible Belt hasn't yet won a Group 1 as this provides a big incentive to keep her in training next year when the Prix Vermeille and Yorkshire Oaks look viable targets for her.
PACE UNLIKELY TO SUIT STRONG SUIT IN BC MILE
STRONG SUIT (42) was awfully impressive when winning the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket. He sprinted away from his rivals with ease off a strong early pace to clock a proper Group 1 time.
On the face of it Strong Suit looks a strong contender for the Breeders' Cup Mile because he's better over seven furlongs than a mile in Europe.
American punters favour have learned it's best to favour European runners that have shown smart form over seven furlongs when it comes to their top mile event. This is because the US race invariably features a slow early pace and is run around a very tight course. (This year's course is just seven furlongs in circumference.) Horses that genuinely need a mile to produce their best in Britain and Ireland rarely do well.
The problem is that although Strong Suit looks to be a seven furlong specialist it does appear he needs a strong pace to produce top form. When he encountered a moderate early gallop against Zoffany in Ireland, Frankel in Britain and Mutual Trust in France he got beat. His only loss in six other starts (in all of which the pace was strong) came when he ran second in the Middle Park on unsuitably soft ground.
The race I'd have targeted with Strong Suit would be the Hong Kong Mile. The ground for that race is almost always firm, the pace is normally strong and the track is tight enough (ten furlongs) to give him a fair shot of lasting the distance.
POWER STILL THE MOST LOGICAL 2000 GUINEAS CHOICE
POWER (37) is the joint best 2YO on my ratings this season, along with Dragon Pulse and the now exported Roman Soldier. And I saw nothing in his narrow Dewhurst Stakes loss to make me question that stance.
The early pace wasn't great in the Dewhurst. This allowed the runners to save so much energy they were able to accelerate and sprint the final three furlongs in the same time as the top class older horse Strong Suit earlier on the card.
It's tough to gain ground into an accelerating pace. And this is what Power was forced to do due to the field compressing towards the stands rail after three furlongs. This caught him in a pocket behind horses that he wasn't able to escape till being switched out with a furlong left.
Like many of Coolmore's best horses, Power lengthens rather than quickens. But he was still able to surge from fifth place to second in the final furlong. My ratings suggest he should have won by a bit more than a length if he'd been able to show his best, and that's the way the race looked to me.
There is always the question of whether a top class two year old will train on. However Power still ranks as the best Guineas prospect for me, so I was surprised to see some bookies push him out to 14-1 for the Newmarket race.
I didn't like the way the winner PARISH HALL (38) was so readily being cut down by Power in the closing stages. But I think trainer Jim Bolger is right to say he's more of a Derby than a Guineas horse, so this is excusable.
Bolger also looks to be right to say Parish Hall is best on fast ground. In fact he's now won both times the words yielding or soft have not appeared in the official going description.
For a Derby prospect to clock a solid Group 1 time for a two year old over just seven furlongs is quite something. So I take Parish Hall's Derby prospects very seriously.
WADING A SERIOUS OAKS PROSPECT
WADING (38) clocked a seriously fat time when winning the Rockfel Stakes. And the interesting thing about the time is that not only was it fast but the early pace was not.
To achieve her final time she had to match the colts in the Dewhurst and cover the last three furlongs in exactly the same time as Strong Suit who put up one of the best performances of the season when winning the Challenge Stakes earlier on the card.
As I see it there's no question that this was the best performance by a juvenile filly beyond six furlongs we have seen this season. Well okay joint best on my ratings - along with Elusive Kate's win in the Boussac.
Wading is built for middle distances. Her pedigree points the same way too. She was moving smoothly throughout and won well. But during the last three furlongs when they were sprinting it seemed to me she was running very close to her top speed and would likely have been flat to the boards if they'd gone any quicker.
Seeing that Wading's sire Montjeu has a rotten record with his horses over less than ten and a half furlongs beyond their juvenile days I have to say she looks more of an Oaks filly than a Guineas candidate.
Wading's trainer Aidan O'Brien is a planner and always seems to do the most logical thing with his horses. So I would bet that while Wading might run in the 1000 Guineas her big target will be the Oaks.
It's worth noting that O'Brien has had only one winner from 22 attempts in the 1000 Guineas but three from 35 in the Oaks. His 1000 Guineas runners have placed just four times while his Oaks runners have done so on 11 occasions.
Seeing that he has an obvious Guineas candidate in Maybe I suspect that Wading will not even be lining up at Newmarket. Like the last seven O'Brien horses to place in the Oaks she will go to the race via an Oaks trial or the Irish 1000 Guineas.
I can see how you could argue that fillies which show good form over seven furlongs in pattern company are unlikely to be viable Oaks candidates. However five of the last eleven Oaks winners and six of the last fourteen reached the first four in pattern company over seven furlongs beforehand. And that includes every one of the three Oaks winners trained by O'Brien.
On balance I would say that the 12-1 you can get about Wading winning the Oaks is rather too large and that the 8-1 you can get for her winning the 1000 Guineas is too small.
BUBBLE CHIC HAS A REAL SHOT IN PREMIO ROMA
I wasn't a huge fan of BUBBLE CHIC (40) before he won the Darley Stakes at Newmarket. The main reason for my lack of enthusiasm is that he'd only won a provincial maiden in France and run second in seven of his other ten starts. He's always been a sitting duck for a horse with a better turn of foot.
However jockey Olivier Peslier found a great way to counteract Bubble Chic's lack of acceleration by setting an ordinary pace in the Darley Stakes and winding it up gradually. He was able to kick on with a quarter mile to run and his rivals were never going to catch him from there.
I have to rate the race on the time Bubble Chic took to cover the last five furlongs as the first three furlongs was rather slow. But the rating I end up with looks right, so I'm happy to go with it.
On this run Bubble Chic has a real shot of taking the Premio Roma next time out. The Italian race is a Group 1 but it's invariably much weaker than Italy's other Group 1's for older horses and can often be won by a horse with the kind of rating Bubble Chic earned from me here.
Amazingly, although he's trained in Italy and the Premio Roma will be his thirteenth start, it will be the first time he's actually run in his home country. That has to be some sort of record.
Runner up DUX SCHOLAR (39) was made favourite. This is understandable. He'd moved just as well as Workforce when finishing upsides his stablemate in a recent strong racecourse gallop at Sandown. In addition he'd twice earned borderline Group 1 speed ratings from me.
The trouble here was that the race was only nine furlongs and this had previously seemed a bit too short for Dux Scholar. Indeed I stick to my previously stated view that he will be effective over a mile and a half next year.
The race was hardly run to suit a horse that wants a longer distance, so Dux Scholar did well to surge into second place and keep on strongly in the closing stages.
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute excels at developing late bloomers like Dux Scholar into Group 1 performers at four and five. So I imagine that will be it for him this year. My bet is we will see him make his next start in the Brigadier Gerard in May and that he will be tackling top races thereafter.
CUE CARD GETS OFF TO A GOOD START
The novice chase at Chepstow last Saturday was a terrific contest as three of the four runners were promising pattern class performers.
The race was slow run most of the way. The gallop picked up a bit just before halfway and once more with seven furlongs to run and finally from half a mile out where the field were basically sprinting.
When I adjust for the sectional times it suggests the winner CUE CARD (38) merits a solid Grade 3 class rating.
Cue Card was rather sketchy over the jumps in the early stages. But he got better when the pace picked up and used his superior speed up the straight to win clearly and with a little in hand.
Although he clearly has plenty of pace, Cue Card looks a bit too tall be a natural two miler to me. So I'm not surprised trainer Colin Tizzard warned punters after the race not to bet his charge ante-post for the Arkle.
The other concern in regards to Cheltenham is just how well Cue Card will hold his form. He's still a narrow sort that has shown in the past he doesn't take much racing.
I suspect Cue Card will prove best over two and a half miles and see his best chance of another Grade 1 win this term lying in the Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown in February.
Runner up MICHEAL FLIPS (37) looks more of a three miler. He jumped with more proficiency than his less experienced rivals and moved well. He couldn't go with the winner but used his stamina to rally back past Silviniaco Conti when that one stumbled and lost momentum shortly after landing over the last. My thinking is that this is as good as he is and that he's not going to be winning anything better than a Grade 3. He split two superior horses mostly because he had more experience than them.
SILVINIACO CONTI (36) is a deep chested sort that showed smart form to win two Grade 2 events over two and a half miles last season before being unaccountably cut back to an inadequate two miles on his final two starts.
Over hurdles Silviniaco Conti showed that he had trouble coping with sprint finishes and that was the case once more here. After moving up into second place before the last he got stretched into stumbling shortly after landing and got caught by Micheal Flips.
Silviniaco Conti is a classy looking sort that's built for chasing. His three and four year old siblings have already won over fences in France. I reckon he'd be effective over two and a half miles if the early pace was strong or the ground was softer than it was here. But most likely three miles will be his best trip. He looks an obvious candidate for the Feltham.
