The thoughts of the handicappers.

Fahey to the fore in Chester Cup
In this week’s blog, Stephen Hindle discusses the Chester Cup, won by Marwan Koukash’s Address Unknown, while Dominic Gardiner-Hill makes sense of the Qipco 1,000 Guineas that provided Richard Hughes with his first British Classic win on Sky Lantern, but featured a disappointing beaten favourite in Hot Snap. For jump enthusiasts, David Dickinson looks at Barizan’s victory in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock.

FAHEY TO THE FORE IN CHESTER CUP

One man who’ll have fond memories of the 2013 Stanjames.com Chester Cup is Richard Fahey, whose only two runners in the race finished first and second, writes Stephen Hindle.

Address Unknown, owned by Dr Marwan Koukash, who had no fewer than four runners in the race, ran out a half-length winner from Ingleby Spirit, despite failing to keep straight.

As with the vast majority of these top staying handicaps, it’s usually a good idea to view the form positively. This year’s renewal seems no exception, with the next three home having run well in similar events in the past.

Third-home Tominator won the Northumberland Plate in 2011 for the late Reg Hollinshead. Now in the care of Jonjo O’Neill, he looks just as good, if not better than ever having been beaten by less than a length here off a 10lb higher mark than when successful at Newcastle.

Simenon, the joint top-weight, ran an excellent race in fourth, making up the best part of 10 lengths in the final 2f and beaten by just over a length at the line. He too has winning form in prestige events, having won twice at Royal Ascot last year.

Joint-favourite Countrywide Flame was second in the Cesarewitch when last seen on the Flat but is better known as one of the top hurdlers around, having finished third in this year’s Champion Hurdle. He gives the Chester Cup form further substance in fifth, just a head behind Simenon.

The first five had clearly run well and, in opening a small gap to the rest, it seemed sensible to think they had all run above their marks, so I raised all of them. That meant a 4lb rise to 101 for Address Unknown, 2lb to 93 for Ingleby Spirit, 2lb to 102 for Tominator and 1lb each for Simenon (to 108, though no actual rating change to put through as he is Irish-trained) and Countrywide Flame (to 93).

Of those in behind, the other joint-favourite, Justification, didn’t have things go his way and is possibly worth another chance, while Suraj ended up with a fair bit to do on his first run in nearly 6 months and, despite finishing tenth, this wasn’t a bad effort. He ran several pounds below his rating though, so I still felt compelled to drop him a couple, and he is now eligible for 0-95s.

Further back in the field, Buckland was disappointing having run so well in the Sagaro. This clearly wasn’t his running though and the level of the Sagaro stays the same, at least for now.

Ile De Re won this last year and then followed up in the Northumberland Plate, but those races were run on much softer ground and he found himself back in thirteenth this time. Surprisingly for such a big handicap, the form of the Northumberland Plate hasn’t worked out and I’ve dropped Ile De Re by 2lb to 103.

Finally, a quick mention for Mount Athos, who was left with little to beat due to the disappointing performance of Memphis Tennessee in the Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes. He looked as good as ever on his reappearance, leaving his Group 3 opposition trailing and appearing well worth his lofty rating of 117. Another owned by Marwan Koukash, a repeat bid in the Melbourne Cup, in which he finished fifth last year, is apparently the long-term goal again.

SKY LANTERN PUTS CHAMPION ON CLOUD NINE

Having witnessed one of the best 2,000 Guineas performances of recent years the previous day with Dawn Approach’s romp across the heath, the Qipco 1,000 Guineas produced a closer and more thrilling finish but a winner that ranks at the lower end of recent winners in terms of her rating, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

I am in no way decrying Sky Lantern and hope that she can go on and improve upon her rating as the season progresses but at the present time it is hard to raise her from her pre-race rating of 111 – a figure which puts her on a par with Jacqueline Quest (disqualified) and Special Duty (awarded the race) in the 2010 renewal.

Having returned figures of 111 when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh last year and when runner-up in the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes on her reappearance, Sky Lantern appears to performed to that figure for a third time.

Under normal circumstances one would expect a Classic winning performance to be an improvement on what has gone before but in this case I find that hard to justify. Half-length runner-up Just The Judge went into the race rated 107 and is raised 3lb to a new mark of 110 for her effort, fourth placed Winning Express is also raised 3lb from 104 to 107, Irish challenger Snow Queen had a mark of 100 pre-race and is raised 6lb to 106 for finishing fifth, the winner’s stable mate Maureen is adjudged to have run to her 106 in sixth while eighth placed Masarah goes up 5lb to 100 for her effort.

In short four of the first eight home have been raised, two stay the same, third placed Moth didn’t have a published rating pre-race so leaving French challenger What A Name as the only top eight finisher to have run below form – as I said, it is difficult to get Sky Lantern any higher!

One slight query I had post-race concerned the rides given to Moth and Maureen – both flew late and finished in eye-catching style. I cannot decide at the present time if Messrs O’Brien and Peslier gave them too much to do or whether they are a pair of fillies who basically need a stiffer test than Sunday’s mile presented – hopefully the answer will become clear as the season progresses.

In terms of revised ratings the problem horse from my perspective was vanquished favourite Hot Snap, ninth, who was one of the first beaten. She was the top rated filly going into the race with a mark of 113 gained when winning the Nell Gwyn but blew out in no uncertain terms on the big day.

It is unusual to leave the winner of a trial rated above the winner of a Classic but given that she beat Sky Lantern and Winning Express pretty comprehensively in the Nell Gwyn it is safe to say she didn’t run anywhere near her best on Sunday and her form has a solid look to it.

Given the subsequent reports from connections it appears all was not well with her and I am happy to leave her on 113 for the time being. Fingers crossed she returns later in the season to prove that decision right or wrong...

BARIZAN BOUNCES BACK

Barizan’s return to top form in winning the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday was a welcome sight for his backers, but the long gap back to the third horse gave me a considerable headache, writes David Dickinson.

Granted the race was transformed by morning rain and two high profile withdrawals but my problem was that every horse finishing between third and ninth had run to their mark last time out, all bar one of them within the previous six weeks. So just how much should I call the 19 lengths between second and third. Second home Mr Mole, had travelled like a really good horse but has been described as quirky - his head goes in the air somewhat and he does hang - but that said he continued to close near the line.

So my first decision was to call the half a length that Barizan beat him 2lb as the winner looked decidedly on top after the last. I also then decided that those between third and ninth should not move significantly in the ratings but that still left the problem of what to call that 19 length gap.

I took the view that the much publicised wind operation and the first time tongue tie had seen Evan Williams coax his charge back to something like his best for this considerable prize. At his best as a juvenile, Barizan was rated 146 for his Triumph Hurdle second, a rating that included seven pounds of weight-for-age. The rating of 138 I have allotted him for this success is within a pound of that figure with the weight for age taken out but also gives him a chance in a further handicap if he can recapture that high mark of 146.

The runner up Mr Mole goes up by two pounds less to 152 from 142.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Society rocks the Knavesmire

In this week's blog, Stewart Copeland assesses Society Rock's victory in the Duke of York Stakes, while Stephen Hindle explains Mad Moose's rise in the weights following his second to Mount Athos in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester.

SOCIETY ROCKS THE KNAVESMIRE

Plenty of runners and plenty of quality was the order of the day in this year's renewal of the Group 2 Clipper Logistics Duke of York Stakes, the first major turf sprint over 6f of the season on these shores.

The weather was unseasonably cold and wet, with a strong headwind as well, which meant conditions were tough for all at the Knavesmire, both equine and human, writes Stewart Copeland.

A total of 17 went to post, and at least seven of the field had already shown a level of form good enough to win an average renewal. It was one of those, Society Rock, who triumphed on the day, which made up for a somewhat unlucky defeat in the race last year.

Society Rock's rating of 117 meant he was the joint highest rated British sprinter in last year's World Thoroughbred Rankings and with his victory here, he showed himself as good as ever.

Carrying a 5lb penalty for his success in the 6f Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock last September, he got the better of a stirring finish with Lethal Force to prevail by a head.

This meant Society Rock comes out a 6lb better horse than the runner-up, who's rated 111 on the strength of his success in the 7f Group 2 Betfred Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last year.

A rather neat fit you could say, and Society Rock's winning performance was as good as a performance we've seen in this race over the past decade.

Back in third place a further one and a quarter lengths behind was the Irish-trained Gordon Lord Byron. The highest rated in the field at 118 based on his win in the 7f Group 1 Foret Stakes at last year's Arc meeting, which also meant he had to shoulder a Group 1 penalty as well.

I have him running to 113 and he emerges with plenty of credit as his low draw seemed a disadvantage, given he raced away from the main pace down the centre of the track, which the first two tracked.

Arguably the unlucky horse of the race though was Hawkeyethenoo. Travelling strongly just off the pace, he looked set to throw down a possible winning challenge when denied a clear run over a furlong out.

Once in the clear inside the last he finished strongly to finish a further nose back in fourth. With an uninterrupted passage he would have surely gone close. Currently rated 112, I have him running to 108 but given the trouble he encountered I've left his rating unchanged.

The above may all renew rivalry in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot next month, with Society Rock trying to repeat his success of 2011, and regain the crown he relinquished to the wonderful mare Black Caviar last year. With another likely strong overseas challenge as well this year, it promises to be a fascinating affair.

THE MAD PROFESSIONAL?

In an article printed in the Racing Post on Wednesday 15th May under the headline "Mad Moose owners hit out over ratings rise", my revised handicap mark for the gelding after his second in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester was described as "crazy" by Tom Palin from Middleham Park Racing, which owns the gelding, writes Stephen Hindle.

Another member of the syndicate, Nick Bradley, suggested via his Twitter feed that I "must have been watching a different race" to him. They didn't bother to contact me for an explanation before blasting the change via their respective forms of communication, but for those of you who are interested in how I came to the new rating, I will do my best to explain.

The winner of the Ormonde, Mount Athos, is a high-class individual who has a rating of 117, and won as easily as his mark suggested he should given the disappointing performance of the favourite, Memphis Tennessee.

Mr Bradley accuses me in the article of reading everything literally, by which I assume he thinks I have not factored in extra for the winner's style of victory.

I can assure him that I have, as otherwise the rating for Mad Moose would have been nearer 105. I certainly haven't taken the 14 lengths back to third-placed Communicator literally, as then it would have been somewhere around 115 and the winner would have gone up.

As with many small-field non handicaps, the form is open to doubt, and it may well be that I have rated it too high or too low.

Just as when Mad Moose made his Flat debut at Doncaster, however, I was committed to coming up with a figure, and to do that I not only took the ratings of the winner and the third into account, but also race averages, which are a common tool for handicappers when assessing races that are difficult to evaluate.

To understand race averages, I should quickly point out that we use "performance ratings" to help us compile our official ratings.

Performance ratings are essentially a measure of a horse's performance in an individual race relative to other horses. From 2008 to 2012 inclusive, the average performance rating of the runner-up in the Ormonde is 104. For the third it is 101, which actually suggests I've taken a conservative view of Mad Moose's run.

The "crazy" part of the article refers to the fact that Mad Moose is a jumps horse now rated 100 on the Flat. He may have started his career under National Hunt rules, but as far as I'm concerned, racehorses are racehorses and should be judged on what they do on the track.

Some make better jumpers and others make better Flat horses, but more often than not if a horse shows a decent lev el of ability in one code it does in the other too. Sticking with Chester, Ile de Re was rated 123 over hurdles before winning last year's Chester Cup, then won off a Flat mark of 101 in the Northumberland Plate next time out.

Mad Moose is currently rated 143 over fences and 139 over hurdles. He finished second to none other than Sprinter Sacre in a Grade 1 chase at Cheltenham in January.

Admittedly, "The Black Aeroplane" was, as usual, untroubled but Only Sizing Europe and Cue Card have finished closer to him this year, so is it really crazy to think Mad Moose could perform to 100 on the Flat?

I admit that a 21lb rise is a hefty amount in one go, but let's remember we are talking about a horse who'd had only one previous run on the Flat, not one who'd been beaten off 79 in handicaps half a dozen times in succession.

The less that is known about a horse's form, and those of some of its rivals, as at Doncaster, the more the likelihood of initial assessments being wide of the mark increases. The Doncaster race has worked out very well so far, and I have gone back and raised the level twice since taking my initial view.

Apparently, the reason Mad Moose's connections were so dismayed is because they wanted to run him in the 0-95 Ascot Stakes.

Mr Bradley is quoted in the Racing Post article as saying "he won't get in now", which is interesting as even if he were on 95 now, they would still have to give him at least one more run on the Flat due to the value of the race.

Let's pretend for a moment that Mad Moose's connections had their hearts set on another race at Royal Ascot, the Queen Alexandra Stakes, and that Mad Moose were on 95 or less.

That particular contest is subject to an elimination sequence if oversubscribed, and the lowest rated horses on the Flat are eliminated first.

In the unlikely event that a mass of 95+ horses were entered, including Ormonde third Communicator, I wonder if Middleham Park Racing would be up in arms over the fact that Mad Moose would be at risk of being balloted out in favour of the 96-rated Communicator, having beaten him at Chester.

As public handicappers we are supposed to favour the majority over the minority. Qualified for the Ascot Stakes or not, if I rate Mad Moose 95 when I feel he is more deserving of 100, it would be unfair on the connections of other horses in the Ascot Stakes and it would deny another horse a run in the race.

One of the few downsides to this job is that many owners and trainers, perhaps understandably but frustratingly for us, have eyes only for their own horses when airing their views.

GLEN'S DIAMOND SPARKLES IN YORKSHIRE CUP

In more recent news, a much easier race to assess was the Group 2 QIPCO Yorkshire Cup, with Glen's Diamond clinging on by the narrowest of margins.

Glen's Diamond seems to relish this contest, having turned in what was at the time a career best when finishing runner-up to Red Cadeaux in it last year. He started a 25-1 outsider of eight in both runnings, but defied those odds this time round in a thrilling finish, passing the post a nose in front of Top Trip.

There was something of an international feel to the first three, with Glen's Diamond trained in Britain, Top Trip in France and third-home Royal Diamond in Ireland. Returning Glen's Diamond to his previous highest mark of 113 seemed the obvious thing to do as that would have Top Trip and Royal Diamond running very close to their recent figures.

Despite being a lower class event, I rated the win of Willing Foe in the following day's Listed JLT Aston Park Stakes more highly.

Willing Foe had looked a horse going places when taking the Ebor last year, when he had Royal Diamond back in second. He met with defeat on his final three starts of 2012 but possibly wasn't ideally suited by the soft ground and, back on firmer turf on his reappearance, he stretched six lengths clear of the 110-rated Harris Tweed at Newbury.

I doubt Harris Tweed ran to his mark but there was little getting away from a fairly lofty figure for Willing Foe with nothing in the race, save for the 85-rated Saint Hilary in sixth, holding down the form.

Using race averages as a guide, anything above 115 would be a significantly high figure for this event. I think Willing Foe is a very talented horse, but 116 or higher would put him on a par with some of the Group 1 stayers I've seen over the past 12 months or so, and I felt happier slotting him in just behind those for now.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Gloomy name, bright future?

Following a busy week of British Racing, the BHA Handicappers have plenty to discuss in this week's blog.

Stephen Hindle looks back at Thursday's Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown, whilst Chris Nash assesses the most exciting finish of the weekend - Duke of Firenze's last-gasp win in the Investec Dash.

Meanwhile, Dominic Gardiner-Hill covers the best of the 1m action from Sandown, Epsom and Doncaster including Gregorian's victory in the Investec Diomed Stakes. The Investec Oaks and Derby were the highlights of the week, both are covered in Phil Smith's Head of Handicapping blog.

GLOOMY NAME, BRIGHT FUTURE?

The Seymour Pierce Henry II Stakes at Sandown looked very interesting beforehand. Last year's Gold Cup winner Colour Vision was in the line-up, as were other highly rated stayers, namely Times Up, successful twice in Group 2 company last year, Cavalryman, who won a Group 3 in Dubai in March, and High Jinx, who was last seen finishing second in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran at Longchamp in October, writes Stephen Hindle.

With so many big names in attendance, it was a race I was looking forward to and on paper it looked like an above average Group 3. They don't run the races on paper, however, and none of the above named quartet managed to even reach the placings.

Whilst three of those four were coming back from long absences and the other, Cavalryman, was having his first race back in Britain, it was a little deflating to see the race dominated by the three lowest rated horses going in, and as such it can't be viewed as a vintage renewal.

The only horse to run in Thursday's race not entered in the Gold Cup is the winner, French filly Gloomy Sunday. She's unexposed over long distances, though she'd given an indication as to her stamina when finishing second in a Listed race at Saint Cloud in April over an extended 1m7f - at the time the furthest she'd run.

A bigger question mark as to the level of this form comes from the second, Number Theory. The five year old progressed rapidly last year, winning three times at Haydock and also finished third in the Ebor, but this is another level altogether.

In third was Model Pupil, who did at least come in as the most unexposed in the field having had only half a dozen races previously. Also, he'd never run beyond 1m4f.

I felt Model Pupil was probably the horse to concentrate on when it came to rating the race. Despite being rated only 104 going in, he was joint fourth in the betting and surely ran to a similar level as in the past.

He was rated 107 after finishing second in last year's Chester Vase, and I elected to raise him to 106 after this to get him higher than some of those he beat and to fit in with the overall view I wanted to take of this race, which was that in the end it was just an average renewal.

A figure of 106 for Model Pupil equated to 109 for Gloomy Sunday and 108 for Number Theory, who was previously rated 98.

It seems a big enough rise for the last-named, but the race has to be viewed as a whole and if you remove Number Theory from the result, this level would not look particularly high, and as already mentioned he was progressive last year and in addition to that he had not previously encountered 2m.

The steady early pace possibly didn't suit High Jinx, whose previous race had been at 2m4f, and I left him on 113. I also left Cavalryman and Times Up, both 115, as there seems little wrong with their most recent form.

Colour Vision is another who possibly would have appreciated more of a test, but this still has to go down as somewhat disappointing and he has failed to repeat his Gold Cup form several times now. I dropped him to 114, which reflects his best form since Royal Ascot.

FIRENZE DASHES HOME

One of the feature 5f handicap races of the season is the Investec Dash at Epsom on Derby day. It is usually an action packed race and the 2013 renewal was no different, writes Chris Nash.

The race was a cracking spectacle and produced a finish where the result only took shape in the last 30 yards. This contest is famed as a speed test and is frequently won by horses ridden handy - indeed the last three winners (Stone Of Folca, Captain Dunne and Bertoliver) were all ridden in that way.

Deep inside the final furlong it looked like that pattern would be repeated with Fair Value in front and seemingly in control only to be swamped late on by horses who rocketed home from nowhere.

Duke Of Firenze took the spoils by a neck from Smoothtalkinrascal with a further neck back to Dinkum Diamond. Fair Value crossed the line in fourth just a short-head behind the third and the first 12 home were covered by less than three lengths - a handicappers delight.

The first two were still in the last four at the furlong marker and the way they scythed through the field made tremendous viewing.

Duke Of Firenze ran off a mark of 97 and the narrow margin of his victory means that he can only be reassessed 4lb higher to 101.

Smoothtalkinrascal was burdened with a penalty for winning his previous race at York and so lined up off 103 even though his current rating was only 100. He will be raised to 106.

Both horses have shown progressive form this season and both returned career best efforts on Saturday. As has been pointed out in this feature on a few occasions the difference between top class sprint handicap form and the level required to be competitive in Listed and Group races is very marginal and there is every chance that the first two will make their mark at a higher level before the season is out.

The presence of Dinkum Diamond in third gives substance to that argument as in 2011 he was placed four times in Listed sprints and once in a Group 3 reaching a peak rating of 108. His run on Saturday will see him rated 103. Fair Value goes up 1lb from 90 to 91 and the nature of the finish means that only slight alterations (if any) are needed to the ratings of the 5th - 12th placed finishers.

THISTLE BIRD FLIES AT EPSOM

Whilst the emerging stars of the middle distance category took centre stage last week there was still some good quality racing for me to enjoy in the mile category, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Best of the action took place in the Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3) on Friday at Epsom when John Gosden's Gregorian returned to somewhere near the best of last year's form to take the race ahead of Penitent and Gabrial.

Rated 114 in last year's World Thoroughbred Rankings on the back of placed efforts in the St James's Palace and the Prix Jean Prat, I have Gregorian running to 113 at Epsom in the belief that runner-up Penitent has returned to his best of 115 given that he had some cut in the ground for the first time this year.

Third placed Gabrial has performed to 110 but will remain on his pre-race figure of 111 as I'm not entirely convinced being held up so far off the pace in a moderately run contest saw him to best effect.

Earlier in the afternoon Roger Charlton's wonderfully consistent Thistle Bird justified top rating in the Investec Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) with a battling success over Gifted Girl and Ladys First.

Looking back at her form of last season it is possible that she was slightly underrated at 107 and on the back of her success last week I have raised her to 108, with easy Ascot handicap winner Gifted Girl going up 2lb from 104 to 106 and Ladys First remaining on her pre-race mark of 105.

Earlier in the week Montiridge repaid trainer Richard Hannon's faith in him with a convincing success in the Heron Stakes at Sandown.

With just four runners going to post it is not an easy race to get a handle on in terms of level, but the winner stretched nicely clear up the hill and I have raised his mark 5lb to 109 - there will be greater challenges ahead for him and it will be interesting to see if he can justify that mark in stronger company.

As far as the week's handicaps were concerned it was a mixed bag.

It was satisfying to see old stagers Spa's Dancer (career best off 92 when winning at Sandown, goes to 97) and Vainglory (first success since October 2011 off 85 at Epsom, goes to 90) both score but what looked a competitive three year old handicap at Doncaster on Saturday was blown apart by John Gosden's Remote who landed the contest by six lengths.

I took a fair bit of stick for the result from a number of trainers on Monday morning and, as we always do in these situations, you go back and have a look at its previous form to see if anything could (or should) have been done differently - in this case I don't believe there was and Remote is just a fast improving colt who was having only his third run.

I have raised his mark from 89 to 103 and will be interested to see which path they follow with him now - will they run off the new rating in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot or head straight into Listed/Group company.

Whichever it is, I suspect his end of season rating may well be in excess of his current perch!

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Happy and glorious - and some rattling good races
ROYAL ASCOT is always the pinnacle of the summer season and this year's jamboree will go down as one of the all-time greats.

A royal winner of the most prestigious event of the week proved a fantastic centrepiece and a supporting card featuring a poignant double for Warren Place and the return of 'the real' Dawn Approach ensures it will live long in the memory.

The Lady Cecil-trained pair will be discussed in Phil Smith's Head of Handicapping Blog which focuses on all of the 1m2f and 1m4f action, but there's a bumper update here on the best from the other distances, leading off with Her Majesty's infamous Gold Cup success.

ESTIMATE COMES OUT BEST
What looked beforehand to be an open Gold Cup ended up going to the favourite, with the Queen's filly Estimate outstaying the boys, writes Stephen Hindle.

Quite how much of the money that made her the jolly was put down more in hope than in expectation I'm not sure, but those who did back her, and many who didn't, were celebrating a royal winner as Estimate held on well to score by a neck from the Irish-challenger Simenon, with Top Trip filling third only a length further back for France, in what was a thrilling finish.

On official marks Estimate actually went in to the race as one of the lower rated, but that didn't really tell the whole story. Staying has always looked her game, as she showed when making a name for herself when upped to 2m for the first time in last year's Queen's Vase, winning by five lengths.

That race, however, is traditionally filled with horses that are unproven in Group company and is therefore not usually a contest where the winner can be given a high rating. It's no surprise that a further step up in trip has brought about more improvement.

She clearly loves Ascot, having won not only that race but another Group 3, the Sagaro Stakes, on her 2013 reappearance. Furthermore, as the only filly in the Gold Cup, she was receiving weight all round, which means that even though I've factored in an extra 1lb for ground lost when edging to her left and possibly idling, the best horse in the race on the maths is the second Simenon.

Like Estimate, Simenon also came into the race rated 108, but he was a real eye-catcher on his 2013 reappearance, making up any number of lengths in the final two furlongs of the Chester Cup and finishing a good fourth off a mark of 107. Another who likes the Royal meeting, Simenon had won both the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes last year.

The first two had clearly improved, so I looked closely at Top Trip in order to set the level. Rated 114 internationally last year, it seemed more than reasonable to assume he's at least as good this time round.

Another reason for thinking that Top Trip was worth 114 was the fifth, German raider Altano. Rated 112 going in, Altano ended up further back than ideal the way the race unfolded and, when faced with the choice of his having run to his mark or 1lb below it, I felt more comfortable having him just below.

Colour Vision isn't a great help when it comes to rating the race. Whilst this clearly represents a return to form, he can't be rated as highly as when successful in last year's Gold Cup when he received a mark of 117.

Even with the view I've taken, I have sixth-placed El Salvador and seventh-placed Model Pupil outperforming their marks, so it seems sensible at this point to err on the side of caution.

Estimate comes out 114, with Simenon 115 and Top Trip another 114. I have Colour Vision running to 112 but as he was hanging, I've lowered him only to 113.

Overall it comes out as a sub-standard renewal in terms of the winner and second, yet the ratings of those a bit further back are higher than average, which partly underlines a lack of a true pace but I think also confirms that it was an open Group 1 which, if lacking real quality at the top, did have some strength in depth.

With that said about the winner, Sir Michael Stoute thinks Estimate could continue to improve judging by his comments post-race and I certainly wouldn't disagree. She's made only seven racecourse appearances, she's unbeaten at 2m+ and is unlikely to be sent to the well too often, while her stamina has arguably still not been fully tested.


THREE-YEAR-OLDS PROVE THE BEST BY MILES
Is anybody else out there getting a slight sense of "deja vu" with the personal duel that is starting to develop between this year's top three-year-old milers Dawn Approach and Toronado, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Remember 2008 when Henrythenavigator beat Raven's Pass in the 2,000 Guineas, the St James's Palace and again in the Sussex Stakes - on each occasion by a smaller margin than the previous run - only for John Gosden's colt to finally wrench away the miling crown from his old adversary in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot in October?

I wonder if a similar scenario is due to be played out in front of us this summer.

Back to 1m after the Derby debacle Dawn Approach (124+) landed the St James's Palace by a short head from Richard Hannon's colt (123+) to take the personal score between them to two-nil but boy did Toronado make him work hard and many felt he was an unlucky loser - both suffered interference when Glory Awaits (111 but retains pre-race 114) ducked left two furlongs out but some felt Toronado got the worst of it.

The level for the race is gained using French challenger Mshawish running to his pre-race 114, suggesting third placed Mars has improved again to a mark of 117 and that fifth and sixth placed Glory Awaits and Dundonnel both ran 3lb off their very best.

A performance figure of 124+ for Dawn Approach is the second highest posted in the race since the turn of the century with only Shamardal's 125 when winning the race at York in 2005 being higher, whilst Toronado's figure of 123 would have been good enough to win eight of the previous ten runnings of the race - they are two high class colts and will hopefully both turn up fit and well for the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood for round three!

From a visual point of view, the most impressive winner over 1m all week was Sky Lantern in the Coronation Stakes.

Under a masterful ride from Richard Hughes, she overcame being drawn 16 to draw right away from the field and stamp her authority with a four-length success.

The figures for the race appear to fit quite well and I have taken the view that third placed Just The Judge has reproduced her 110 performances from both the English and the Irish 1,000 Guineas, suggesting that Sky Lantern has run to 119 and French-trained runner-up Kenhope has performed to 111.

This was another performance well up to scratch in the recent history of the race, with only Indian Ink's (another for the Hannon/Hughes combo) six length romp in 2007 being considered superior since the turn of the century at 121.

As far as the older milers are concerned, Farhh's absence from the opening Queen Anne left the race with a very open look about it and so it proved with two of those left trailing in his wake in the Lockinge fighting out the finish.

A winning figure of 118 suggests that Declaration of War's performance in the race was superior to only that of Ad Valorem (117) in 2006 but the way he quickened having met trouble in running suggest there may be more to come and he would make a fascinating gatecrasher to the Dawn Approach/Toronado party at Goodwood should Aidan O'Brien choose to tread that path!


MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU
The 6f Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes has gained a reputation in recent years of attracting a truly international field and this year was no exception, with challengers from the US, Australia, Bahrain, France and Ireland taking on their British hosts, writes Stewart Copeland.

Much of the focus beforehand was on the favourite Society Rock, and whether he could repeat his 2011 success in the race having shown himself as good as ever in the Group 2 Duke of York on his seasonal reappearance.

However the honours instead fell to the Clive Cox-trained four-year-old colt Lethal Force, who'd been beaten a head into second by Society Rock on the Knavesmire, comprehensively turning the tables despite being 5lb worse off.

Soon at the head of affairs racing with plenty of enthusiasm, Lethal Force was asked to stamp his authority on the race over two furlongs out and never looked in danger of being caught despite the strong late challenge of the patiently-ridden Society Rock. The winning distance was a decisive two lengths, with a further one and three quarter lengths back to the Bahrain runner, Krypton Factor.

When two horses are ridden in such contrasting fashion, my main focus is to consider whether one has gained an advantage over the other as a result of the tactics employed, and how that would impact on my overall view of the race. The sectional timings which were available at Royal Ascot proved a big help for my analysis.

Having studied them closely I came to the conclusion that even though Society Rock might have been at a slight disadvantage given how the race panned out, I'm of the opinion that Lethal Force still ran out a worthy winner on the day.

A further overall time comparison with the Wokingham winner, the 109-rated York Glory, shows Lethal Force covered the 6f in 0.43s quicker, whilst carrying an additional 2lb as well, which is what you'd expect given the respective quality on show in the two races.

Therefore, having decided that, the next job was what to rate Lethal Force. As we do in such races, we not only calculate the level on the current form of those he beat, but also how it fits in a historical context based on the standards we keep, and what we would normally expect a winner to achieve in the race.

Both these methods pointed me to a figure of 120, easily a career best for Lethal Force having been rated 111 coming in to the race, but one fully deserved in my view. That also meant Society Rock ran a shade below his rating of 117, which tied in with how I felt the race panned out.

To add further substance to Lethal Force's rating, this meant that Krypton Factor reproduced his previous turf best rating of 111, which he ran to in last year's renewal won by Black Caviar. It's worth pointing out his current rating of 117 is based on his form on the Tapeta at Meydan, which at present looks his favoured surface.

Since the turn of the millennium the average winning rating has been in the region of 117/118 so it's fair to say this year's renewal looks above average. Indeed this past decade only a couple of winners have posted a higher figure in the race with Starspangledbanner in 2010, and Choisir in 2003, interestingly the sire of the aforementioned, both achieving 121.

WAR IN COMMAND AT THIS EARLY STAGE
Most of the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot were won impressively resulting in above-average figures, writes Matthew Tester.

I got the impression that we have a really good crop of winners but that there was not huge strength in depth behind them.

Both the fillies' races were won decisively. Rizeena comes in at 106 for her Queen Mary and I really think she will rate higher in time. The form of the placed horses rather holds down the figures although you had to be impressed by the style of the win.

Kiyoshi earned a 112 from me for her rather wayward win in the Albany, beating horses like Sandiva and Heart Focus who were already proven performers. I was also very taken with Joyeuse who got anything but a clear run and should prove much better for the experience.

The big colts' races also worked out strongly. War Command is pencilled in for now at an exceptional 119. This is the same sort of figure as for other wide-margin Coventry winners like Canford Cliffs and Three Valleys.

He must have taken connections massively by surprise to be their third-string and go off at 20-1. A trainer would normally know if he had a two-year-old who was that far ahead of everything else, so I will feel more comfortable once he gets the chance to do it again.

Three Valleys went on to win the Middle Park and was then beaten only a head in the Dewhurst. Canford Cliffs came back from injury to win five Group 1s. Let us hope that War Command is the real deal.

No Nay Never smashed the juvenile course record to win the Norfolk. He did it from the front whereas every other two-year-old winner of the week had been held up. I was really impressed and he gets an above average 110 for the win.

Berkshire also made a great impression with the style of his victory in the Chesham. He only had to run to 104 to win it but he could be a major player in the championship races at the end of the season.

Finally, Extortionist earned a 104 in the Windsor Castle, but the one who really caught my eye there was My Catch in fifth. He made up plenty of ground late on and can be expected to step up considerably on his 102 performance.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Tominator pounces
late to regain Plate
THERE was a popular result in the 2013 renewal of the Northumberland Plate, Tominator getting up in the dying strides to win the race for a second time, writes Stephen Hindle.

Successful in the 2011 version when trained by Reg Hollinshead, Tominator didn't run in the "Pitmen's Derby" last year, but he'd turned in plenty of good efforts in between visits to Newcastle, winning at Chester last season and, after joining current trainer Jonjo O'Neill, twice over hurdles.

A good third in the Chester Cup meant he had a career high mark of 102 to defy this time round, and he also carried top weight. Anyone with the theory that top weights can't win big staying handicaps had been shown otherwise by Aaim To Prosper in last year's Cesarewitch though, and Tominator became another to defy 9st 10lb, mugging Oriental Fox, who had looked the likely winner.

Whilst the time is nothing special, they didn't appear to hang around and it certainly wasn't a disadvantage to come from off the pace, all the principals having either been held up or raced in mid-division. Some of the runners were a bit tight for room in the rush for home but at the same time there seemed no major hard-luck stories, with the possible exception of Brockwell, who could arguably be counted unfortunate not to have finished an outright third, having ultimately dead-heated with Mubaraza after a troubled passage left him with a fair bit to do.

My Irish counterparts had fifth-placed Scatter Dice running to 91 when third off 90 at Down Royal a week earlier. She raced off her old mark of 90 here, this being an early closing race, and it seemed reasonable to think that she was worth that 1lb rise considering this was such a competitive contest.

Mubaraza was due a 1lb rise of his own after finishing fourth in the Ascot Stakes, and after another good run in a highly competitive staying handicap, I decided to raise him effectively by 2lb, to 94.

As already mentioned, Brockwell didn't have the best of passages through, but I wasn't convinced enough to credit him with an outright third so I asked him to also compete from a 2lb higher mark next time, putting him up to 92 from 90.

He'd finished a length and a quarter behind Oriental Fox, so Mark Johnston's charge went up by 4lb to 99. I called the short head from winner to second the standard 1lb, meaning a rise of 5lb for Tominator to 107.

By all accounts, Tominator didn't come cheap to his new owner, but that is unsurprising considering his ability and as the saying goes, you get what you pay for.

HANNON AND HUGHES PRODUCE ANOTHER WINNER

The 7f Group 3 bet365 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday was won in game fashion by the Richard Hannon trained Producer. During the race he didn't look the most likely winner, but gradually wore down the front running Red Jazz to gain the second Group 3 win of his career writes Mark Olley.

Sometimes races are fairly straightforward to assess and this was one of those occasions. Producer (111) and Red Jazz (109) came into the race with 2lb separating them and as the winning margin was three quarters of a length, which is equal to 2lb over 7f, I left them both on their pre-race ratings. Our race standards have an average runner-up performing to 109 so this further pointed to a status quo with the ratings.

Pastoral Player blew his chance at the start where he reared and gave away several lengths. Last time out, at Haydock, he finished two lengths in front of Red Jazz when just finding Amarillo too good in the John Of Gaunt Stakes. He clearly has more than enough ability to win a race of this nature, in fact he won that above Haydock race last year, but he does not seem to win the share of races his ability suggests he should.

I must also mention Producer's stablemate Libranno who has won this race for the previous two seasons. The down side of those wins meant he was conceding between 8lb and 11lb to all of his rivals and despite finishing seventh he was only 1lb below last year's winning rating.

Earlier in the week the Arkle Finance Eternal Stakes at Warwick saw 1,000 Guineas fourth Winning Express return to winning ways. She was just pushed out to comfortably win and did not need to improve upon her rating of 107.

Seven furlongs looks her trip and the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood in early August looks an ideal target, especially as her 107 rating would have been good enough to win the race in four of the last five years.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Al Kazeem reaffirmed his dominance in Eclipse
SATURDAY'S Coral-Eclipse brought together the winners of Royal Ascot's Queen Anne and Princes of Wales's Stakes, with a three-year-old representative in the shape of St James's Palace third Mars also thrown into the pot, and Al Kazeem reaffirmed his standing as the dominant 1m2f performer at present with a decisive two-length success, writes Graeme Smith.

That reads like quite a billing in terms of the clash that took place at Sandown, but in truth Al Kazeem had to do nothing more than reproduce his Ascot running to gain his third straight Group 1 win.

He'd already accounted for Mukhadram at Ascot, where that rival had arguably been advantaged by an enterprising ride, whilst the Ballydoyle pair of Declaration of War and Mars had 8lb and 9lb improvement to find respectively to reach Al Kazeem's 126 level. In fact Pastorius and The Fugue were rated as bigger dangers to Al Kazeem had they given their running.

As things went Mukhadram wasn't allowed to get away this time and Al Kazeem was set to beat him more comfortably than at Ascot even before hampering him badly with half a furlong to run - by my reckoning the margin between them would have been around a length and a half. It was only that interference that cost Mukhadram second and he remains rated ahead of Declaration of War on his post-Ascot 125.

Both myself and Irish Handicapper Mark Bird agreed that Declaration of War had promised to be suited by a return to 1m2f (and that he'd overcome slight trouble at Ascot) and were happy to increase his rating from 118 to 122 - reflecting his two length or 4lb inferiority to Al Kazeem, whose figure we based the race around.

There's been some conjecture of what Mars' best trip is of late and we rated him as improving 2lb from his St James's Palace figure of 117 on this first try at 1m2f.

This level is a shade higher than the ‘average' Eclipse on the historical standards and it might well be that the levels of both this and the Prince of Wales's need revisiting in time, but for now this looks a solid starting point to me.

Whilst Al Kazeem achieved the best form from the last seven days, his wasn't the only noteworthy performance and John Gosden's Flying Officer could be on his way to pattern company judged by his taking success in a 1m2f handicap at Windsor on Sunday. He's a brother to his connections' recent Great Voltigeur winners Lucarno (went on to land the St Leger) and Thought Worthy and had made a winning debut and finished seventh to the subsequent Irish Derby winner Trading Leather in an Autumn Stakes that's proved extremely strong in his two juvenile starts.

He was reappearing over a trip that may well prove short of his best at Windsor but accounted for a small but select field by upwards of three and a half lengths without having to come under maximum pressure. The runner-up Sennockian Star went one better at Carlisle later in the week whilst the third-placed Duroble Man represents some very strong formlines and remains with further potential, not least over longer trips.

All three came in for a rise with Flying Officer's mark going up 12lb to 100, which consisted of 9lb for the bare form and a further 3lb for what I thought he had in hand. Obviously I can't handicap him on further improvement he ‘might' make as he works his way to 1m4f so I'm well aware he could make that look lenient down the line.

NURSERY RACES

The first two-year-old handicap of the year, known as a "nursery", was at Haydock on Fridaywrites Matthew Tester.

People often ask why we run the early nurseries before publishing handicap marks. Until we have run a few, the ratings are incredibly fluid. For every new race last week, I moved two or three others based on the fresh evidence. It is the early nurseries that give me the best chance to firm up the figures.

There are several advantages to owners and trainers in not rushing to publish.

Take the Class 6 nursery at Southwell on Tuesday of this week. There were twelve entries. But six of them I had pencilled in above what would normally be the cut-off point for the race. They would not have been allowed to enter. But the current system gives us the chance to be flexible and make the best race from those that are entered. Which gives extra opportunities to run, bigger fields and more competitive races.

And imagine that I have published a 74 rating for your horse. You spot a perfect 0-75 handicap for him and plan his training accordingly. The owner arranges the day off and invites all his friends. Then, just before entries, I publish a new rating of 76. This happens a lot with the two-year-olds because the ratings move so quickly as more evidence becomes available. Disaster if we are publishing marks as you cannot now enter. Not a problem under the current system as your plans will not need to change.

The more evidence we have, the more solid the ratings. And the best evidence often comes from the early nurseries.

Trainers, however, are not kept in the dark. They are welcome to call me to discuss their horse. I will tell them where I have it pencilled in, how solid that rating looks and therefore how likely it is to change. I have a good relationship with many trainers who do check in with me frequently. Often the calls are not about handicaps. Rather they discuss their plans for other races to see how realistic they are and whether they have better alternatives.

That first handicap went well. We had a three way finish and a 20/1 winner. We plan to publish the two-year-old ratings either next Tuesday or the one after depending on how quickly these early figures gel.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
High temperatures and higher quality.

In a week which saw a heatwave sweep across Britain, there was also some pretty hot action on the racecourse. Stewart Copeland gives his views on the July Cup, whilst Dominic Gardiner-Hill focuses on the top action over a mile, notably the Falmouth Stakes. Almost 40,000 turned up at York for the John Smith's Cup, which fell under the jurisdiction of Martin Greenwood.

LETHAL WEAPON

The words "seconds out, round three" sprang to mind as I watched Lethal Force and Society Rock parade in the paddock on a sweltering day at Newmarket's July course, writes Stewart Copeland.

Much had been said after the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, with some suggesting Lethal Force owed his win to a good ride, rather than his ability being the decisive factor on the day. As I wrote in my blog on the race I disagreed with that view, and I'll return to that later.

This year's 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup was far from a two-horse race though. Half of the declared 12-strong field had already triumphed at this level, though it was unfortunate for connections of one of them, the Bahrain-trained Krypton Factor, that he had to be withdrawn after bursting through the front of his stall.

The 11 who eventually took part meant this was the smallest field in the race since Agnes World beat nine rivals in 2000. The market was headed by the South African challenger Shea Shea, who was hoping to go one better than when runner-up to Sole Power in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot.

Both though had a question mark against them for the same reason, as their best form had been achieved at the minimum trip.

There were no such doubts about Lethal Force and Society Rock, and it was fascinating to see which pair would usurp the other. Chris Nash, who oversees the top 5f horses, and myself were both of the view that the Diamond Jubilee represented stronger form than the King's Stand, so we were hoping that would be borne out by the latter duo.

As it turned out, what was to follow not only produced a really pleasing result from a handicapping viewpoint, but hopefully put to bed those who questioned Lethal Force's supe riority at Royal Ascot, which I alluded to at the start of this piece.

It's surprising when sectional times are available, which clearly gave an invaluable insight in to how the Diamond Jubilee was run, that there was a body of opinion that Society Rock was unlucky at Royal Ascot. Quite what that opinion was based on I don't know, but it certainly wasn't the clock.

Lethal Force's dominant front-running display was tremendous to watch. He displayed a high cruising speed before stamping his authority on the race from two furlongs out and, despite a slight stumble shortly after, always looked in control.

His old foe, Society Rock, chased in vain to finish a length and a half back in second, with Slade Power in third faring best of the Irish challengers, a further three-quarters of a length behind. The favourite, Shea Shea, finished fourth, a neck further back.

From a ratings perspective, Lethal Force came into the race joint top rated with Shea Shea at 120, and it was a case of whether I felt he had improved upon that to win. I took the view he has, but only marginally and have revised him to 121, a view also shared across the board by my international colleagues who make up the World Thoroughbred Rankings committee.

That meant Society Rock ran to his rating of 117, and Slade Power posted a career best of 115, having been 109 pre-race. Interestingly, this meant that Shea Shea reproduced the 114 my colleague had him running to in the King's Stand, a creditable performance but still below the level he achieved over 5f at Meydan earlier in the year, which his rating is based on.

Apart from that, the form is also bolstered by the time, which was a new course record. Course records are not always a guarantee of an exceptional time, but on this occasion it is.

Comparisons with the other races on the card, including the fiercely competitive Bunbury Cup, show the time to be on a par with Lethal Force's rating, leaving little doubt that he is fully deserving of his position at the top of the European sprint ladder.

Where does this place Lethal Force historically? His rating is now on a par with Starspangledbanner who completed the same double in 2010. Interestingly, in winning the Golden Jubilee, as it was called then, Starspangledbanner beat Society Rock by a similar margin, so the pair have something in common.

It also speaks volumes for Society Rock, who's been toughing it out at the top of the sprinting tree for four seasons, and has maintained his form and enthusiasm remarkably well. We then have to go back to Oasis Dream's 125 in 2003 to find a better performance, which puts in to context what an excellent effort it was from Lethal Force.

KATE TOO ELUSIVE FOR LANTERN

The first Group 1 clash of the generations over a mile went the way of the older horses as John Gosden's Elusive Kate got the better of Sky Lantern in the Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

It is always an interesting test of the three-year-old ratings levels when they start meeting the older horses and on this occasion the 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes heroine lined up at Newmarket with a pre-race rating of 119, while Elusive Kate went to post rated 115.

In a tactical affair, however, it was the older filly who prevailed by a neck. Having set a sedate pace, she turned things into something of a two-furlong sprint and then hung left across the track, taking the Hannon filly with her in the process.

While I could have a prolonged argument with myself, let alone anyone else, on the rights or wrongs of the Stewards' decision in the subsequent enquiry I have to answer a number of questions from a handicapping perspective in light of what happened:-

1) Did the interference caused by Elusive Kate cost Sky Lantern the race? The nature of the incident means that it is impossible to be categorical on that one.

2) Was Elusive Kate underrated at 115 going into the race? She ended last year with a World Thoroughbred Rankings rating of 116, gained not only against her own sex and age group but also against the colts and the older horses, and was dropped 1lb for a slightly below-par show in the Queen Anne on her reappearance.

I doubt there is a lot of further improvement to come from her but in retrospect a rating of 117 could have been justified for her victory in the Rothschild at Deauville last July and her third behind Excelebration and Cityscape in the Jacques Le Marois at the same track the following month. As such, I have raised her to 117 after her success last week.

3) Was Sky Lantern overrated at 119? The numbers from the Coronation stack up quite neatly and at this stage I am unwilling to change the level until further, more reliable, information comes to light. Whereas everything fell into place for her at Royal Ascot, where she was able to be dropped in from a wide draw and followed a strong pace, not much went right for her at Newmarket.

4) Did the sedate early pace in the Falmouth have a bearing on the result? If there is a key as to why Sky Lantern was beaten I believe this is it, rather than the interference she suffered.

William Buick got the fractions absolutely spot on from the front and the sedate early pace is reflected in a time that was 1.9 seconds (or 11 and a half lengths) slower than the 85-rated Basseterre's performance in winning the mile handicap three hours later on the card - a direct time comparison suggests Elusive Kate ran to around 60!

In turning the race into a two-furlong sprint and getting first run, Buick was asking Sky Lantern to quicken to get to his mount and then quicken again to get past her - not easy against a genuine Group 1 filly!

The upshot is that Sky Lantern will retain her 119 rating despite the fact that her conqueror only goes to 117 - let us hope they meet again at some point to settle all the arguments once and for all.

Ascot's Group 2 Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile also attracted some top-quality milers and having finished either second or third on his previous six starts, Roger Varian's Aljamaaheer got some reward for his consistency with a length success over Mull of Killough, with Guest of Honour a further half-length back in third.

Going into the race with a BHA rating of 116 after his second place in the Queen Anne at the Royal meeting, I'm not convinced he needed to run right up to that to prevail on Saturday and have him performing a pound off that level at 115.

Similarly I don't believe the runner-up Mull of Killough performed to his pre-race mark of 116 either. I have him running 3lb below it at 113, probably due to being drawn widest of all in stall 13 and spending the entire race parked on the outside of the field.

Third-placed Guest of Honour appears to have produced a lifetime best and will be raised 2lb to 112, whilst Trade Storm, who was fourth and carried 3lb more than the first three, is also raised 2lb, to a new mark of 115.

THE FIRST (AND SECOND) COURSE IS HAGGAS

It was the 54th edition of The John Smith's Cup at York on Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

Though a bigger fan of National Hunt than Flat racing, I have plenty of happy memories of York races from my youth, and I particularly enjoyed Magnet Cup Day - as it was known then - in 1983 when I attended and backed Bedtime to win the feature. I had only just started the first of my eighteen years at Timeform at that time, and who would have thought that thirty years later I would be the BHA Handicapper in charge of reassessing the most recent result?

This year's race was a typically competitive renewal, 19 runners lining up, and they went 6-1 the field, a result for my esteemed colleagues on the Flat.

One of the joint favourites looked one of the most interesting runners pre-race. Stencive, an excellent second over 1m4f at Royal Ascot last time and also runner-up in both of his handicap runs in 2012, was able to run off 98, the same as at Royal Ascot, due to the fact that the York race was an early closing feature.

Due to race off 102 in future, his chance was there for all to see. Unfortunately for his connections, Stencive had again to settle for the runner-up berth and was arguably most unlucky not to break his duck in handicaps.

Anchored in the rear from his wide berth behind a relatively steady early pace, Stencive had only a couple behind him turning in. He could be seen making headway on the outside as the field quickened up approaching three furlongs out, and he looked the most likely winner from then on - so well did he look to be travelling.

However, while stable-companion Danchai made a dash for glory having raced more prominently under Atzeni, Lee on Stencive seemed to bide his time a stride or two too long on a proven stayer, and despite a sustained run he was unable to quite get up, drifting left close home.

In my opinion, Stencive was the best horse in the race, even at the weights, and should the pair meet again I am pretty sure the roles would be reversed. Both the Haggas horses will be asked to race off 7lb higher next time, Danchai now 99 and Stencive, after an extra 3lb, on 105, with the latter probably good enough for Listed/Group 3 company.
 
Hannon and Hughes enjoy ups on the Downs
The highlight of a busy week of quality races at 1m was of course Toronado's tremendous defeat of old rival Dawn Approach in the Qipco Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last Wednesday, taking the score between the pair to 2-1 in the Irish colt's favour and leaving racing professionals and fans alike awaiting "Round 4" with baited breath, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Rated the best two three-year-olds in the world with pre-race ratings of 124 (Dawn Approach) and 123 (Toronado) following their tremendous scrap in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot, the pair confirmed those positions but it is now Richard Hannon's colt who sits on top of the pile with a new mark of 126, while Dawn Approach is at his girth with a new mark of 125.

I have taken the view that third-placed Declaration Of War has reproduced his Eclipse running of 120 and used him as the guide to the level of the Sussex - it is interesting to see that some of my international colleagues have taken the view that Aidan O'Brien's colt has only run up to the 118 it was generally acknowledged that he had produced when winning the Queen Anne and, accordingly, have lower figures on the two three-year-olds. I find it difficult to support that view as I felt that Declaration Of War won at Royal Ascot despite not getting the clearest of runs and had the scope to improve on the figure as the season progressed - as he appeared to in the Eclipse, and the fact that he beat Trade Storm (pre-race 115, ran to 110) and Gregorian (115 and 107) a lot further than he did in the Queen Anne suggests to me that there is little reason to suggest that he hasn't run to 120 at Goodwood.

Would I expect Toronado to confirm the form in the event of a fourth meeting between the pair? There is little doubt that he benefitted from a Richard Hughes master class on the Downs, mugging his old adversary wide and on the line - there is so little between the pair at present that I for one could not predict with any confidence the result of any future meetings!

Whilst not attracting the headlines of his (currently) more illustrious stablemate, Montiridge provided Hannon and Hughes with further Group success two days later when landing the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes. This colt is progressing nicely through the ranks and in beating Godolphin's Tawhid (111) by an easy length and a quarter he registered a career best of 115 with the promise of more to come - the Celebration Mile back at Goodwood on August 24 looks an obvious target for this son of Ramonti.

The Hannon team's domination of the top 1m races at the meeting was topped off by Wentworth's success in the Betfred Mile Handicap on Friday. He has always threatened to win a "big one" but little went right for him in his previous two starts at Royal Ascot and Sandown. That certainly wasn't the case here and he will be raised 7lb to a new mark of 106 for his three-quarters-of-a-length success; runner up Cape Peron also looks to be at least Listed class and he goes up 5lb, also to 106, while third-placed Sandagiyr (who didn't enjoy the clearest of passages) returned to somewhere near his best with a 107 performance off 102. The form is given a solid look by fourth placed Galician, who appears to have run to the same mark of 101 (off 98) as he did when landing the 29-runner Betfair International Handicap at Ascot just six days earlier.

Official Handicappers aren't supposed to have a heart but for me one of the most pleasing performances of the week was Premio Loco's success in the EBF WT's Snooker and Sporting Club Conditions Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday. Now nine years old and with a meritorious second in the Hunt Cup to his name a couple of outings ago he set out to make all, was headed by clear top-rated Sovereign Debt (12lb "in hand") a furlong out but stuck his head down and battled back to nail his rival inside the final half furlong. I have him reproducing his current figure of 111 and there can be no doubt that Sovereign Debt was nowhere near the form of his second place in the Group 1 Lockinge at Newbury back in May. If it wasn't such an inappropriate phrase to use for such a genuine old campaigner I would say it "showed there was plenty of life in the old dog yet....."!!

Back of the net!

Ex-footballer Michael Owen celebrated at Goodwood as though he had just scored the winner in the Cup Final, writes Martin Greenwood.

Brown Panther, the star thus far of Owen's breeding/owning aspirations, scored his seventh and most important victory in Thursday's Goodwood Cup sponsored by Artemis.

Although already proven up to and including 1m6f his only previous attempt at 2m proved nothing as he was most disappointing at Longchamp last autumn. At the second time of asking however Brown Panther more than showed the trip was within his compass and ran out an emphatic winner, scoring by three and a half lengths from Ahzeemah, leading around the two furlong marker having always been prominent.

Beforehand there didn't seem a great deal between the best horses in the field, with the quirky Mount Athos having seemingly the best chance on form. However Mount Athos - along with several other fancied rivals - could never land a blow. With a decent pace from the off then quickening as they straightened up, it seemed to benefit horses near or just off the gallop, while those held up were seen to be at a disadvantage.

My five-year standard median suggested a figure of 113 for the winner, which is what Brown Panther was rated pre-race. With the likes of No Heretic and, to a lesser extent, Number Theory seemingly running very well, circumstances notwithstanding, I have left Brown Panther on the same mark. He is obviously a smart stayer, with a likeable attitude to boot, though it will be interesting to see what happens should he meet some of these rivals again with a more conventional test.

Wishing for a star

Glorious Goodwood has three Group races for two-year-olds, writes Matthew Tester. All were decent renewals but the winners will have to progress significantly if they are going to have a chance in the championship races towards the end of the season.

I have records of the previous 22 renewals of each race so that I can put these winners into perspective. The 5f Bet365 Molecomb was won by Brown Sugar who I have pencilled in at 109 compared to the race median of 107. So far so good, but the better winners of the Molecomb get rated closer to 115.

The 6f Audi Richmond was won by Saayerr who is improving fast. My current figure for him is 108. The race median is 112 and as recently as two years ago Harbour Watch was rated 117 for his win, so Saayerr needs to keep improving. And the 7f Veuve Clicquot Vintage was won by Toormore whose 109 is short of the race median of 115 achieved by stablemate Olympic Glory last year.

Toormore particularly looks like he still has plenty of improvement in him and he is the winner of both of his starts. In fact, the Vintage makes the most appeal to me. The second, Outstrip, has come on a ton since his winning debut and may get better still. The third, Parbold, could not get himself balanced on the track until he hit the rising ground but he finished really well and will do better on a flat track. But bear in mind that Parbold was beaten by a length and three quarters here having been six lengths behind War Command at Ascot last time.

War Command is still top of the tree as far as the boys are concerned. I have him at 119 for winning the Coventry and I am hoping that he will be as impressive again when we see him next. For the fillies the leader is Kiyoshi who earned 112 for her impressive Albany win. I am expecting to see her next in the Moyglare on September 1.
 
The Fugue hits the high notes on the Knavesmire
For most of 2012 I believed The Fugue to be capable of achieving a higher rating than the 116 she recorded on three occasions in the second half of that season, writes Phil Smith.

In last week's Darley Yorkshire Oaks everything fell right for her to really show what she can do. As a result she posted a 120 performance figure, a relatively rare event for a British-trained filly over the last five seasons. Snow Fairy achieved it three times with a 124 in 2012, 122 in 2011 and 120 in 2010. Midday also recorded three 120s with a 120 in 2011, 121 in 2010 and 120 in 2009, while Dar Re Mi posted a 120 in 2009.

I believe that The Fugue was unlucky not to get to 120 last year. In the 2012 Nassau Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks there was no pace in the race and as a result moderate horses got too close to the principals and it was impossible to rate her higher than 116, but it was clear that the potential was there. It was the lack of pace at York that actually cost her the Yorkshire Oaks last year in my view.

However it was at Santa Anita where she was exceptionally unlucky that the potential 120 was missed. Have a look on YouTube and see how life was impossible for her jockey in the straight in that race. The winner, Zagora, was given 118 at the end of the season by the International Handicappers. I know that The Fugue could have won that race by over a length if she had got a run and then she'd have been allocated a 120 rating.

Last week she covered the last six furlongs of her race in 69.18 seconds, which was faster than any of the boys in either the Great Voltigeur Stakes or the Juddmonte International. The initial pace of the Yorkshire Oaks was faster than the Great Voltigeur also as Scintillula covered the first six furlongs in 77.71 seconds compared with Nichols Canyon recording 79.29 seconds.

So how did I get to 120 for her performance? I have Secret Gesture running to 108 in both the Investec Oaks and the Preis der Diana (the German version). As The Fugue beat her by seven and a quarter lengths her superiority equated to 11lb at the 1m4f trip making 119. I added on a pound for ease of victory as I don't think anybody could doubt that she could have won by another three quarters of a length if her jockey had asked her. This brings Venus de Milo out on 113 which she also achieved in the Darley Irish Oaks.

I have Telescope performing to 113 in the Great Voltigeur and on a time, weight and weight for age comparison with his performance The Fugue comes out on 120. Declaration of War recorded a 123 in the Juddmonte International and I believe The Fugue would have gone very close in that race with the 3lb sex allowance. The Juddmonte, like the Yorkshire Oaks, was a well-run race. That is what she clearly needs - a truly-run race on fast ground.

It will be fascinating to see which Breeders' Cup race connections go for, the Fillies and Mares' Turf at an extended-1m2f or the Turf at 1m4f as she is equally adept at both distances. The former will undoubtedly be the easier contest in theory but at Santa Anita over that trip there is always the potential for interference.

I wonder if they will opt to take on the boys over the longer distance for the greater prestige and prize money. She would almost certainly have to perform a little higher than 120 to win that contest but can she? I believe she can.

HIGH OF THE TIGER
A change in the weather after declarations meant an unusually small field in the Betfred Ebor Handicap this year, fourteen eventually going to post for the richest Flat handicap in the northern hemisphere, writes Stephen Hindle.

It was close at the head of the betting with three horses going off within half a point of one another. When the gates opened, Irish-raider Ted Veale was the shortest price of all, Tony Martin's charge going off a 9/2 chance having confirmed his place in the Ebor line-up by picking up a penalty with a win at Bellewstown three days earlier. The form of the stable was in little doubt too, with Martin having already had a winner earlier on the card with Dark Crusader in the Melrose.

Deposed from outright favouritism having been a long-time ante-post jolly was the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Opinion, successful in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot and then an unlucky-in-running fifth in Haydock's Old Newton Cup.

Opinion was having his first run at 1m6f but there were no such questions as to the trip for the other 5/1 shot Tiger Cliff, who had run really well to finish second in the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f.

It was the least exposed of the trio and one of the least exposed in the entire field, Tiger Cliff, who went on to victory, displaying the stamina he'd shown at Royal Ascot by getting up close home to win going away by half a length from Genzy, who was 8lb well-in having finished a close fourth in the Geoffrey Freer since the Ebor weights were published.

The tremendously consistent top weight Number Theory filled third spot another length away, with Ted Veale having to settle for a creditable fourth a further length back. Opinion blotted his copybook by planting himself at the start and, while he was able to recover the lost ground due to the uneven gallop, he eventually finished only tenth.

With Tiger Cliff still unexposed and clearly improving, and with Genzy having failed to match the form he had appeared to show at Newbury, I looked hardest at Number Theory when it came to putting a figure on the race.

This was a fine effort by Number Theory off a mark of 107. He has run several excellent races this season, both in handicaps and pattern company. His best placing was when second in the Henry II at Sandown behind the French filly Gloomy Sunday, who I had running to 109 in that race. Number Theory was giving 5lb to Gloomy Sunday on that occasion, but having been beaten four lengths by her I wasn't sure I wanted Number Theory on a higher rating. Furthermore, he was third of six off a mark of 108 on his previous start in a handicap.

If I went 109, a rise of 2lb, for Number Theory, it would fit with Ted Veale, who was raised to 98 by my Irish counterparts following his win at Bellewstown and ran off 97 in the Ebor. That equated to 104 for Tiger Cliff as I had decided to call the half-length margin to the second 2lb due to the fact Tiger Cliff won going away. I dropped Genzy to 104. He ran off 98 so would therefore meet Tiger Cliff on the same terms, but I'm not ready to simply ignore the form of his fourth in the Geoffrey Freer as he had several good horses behind him that day.

The day before the Ebor, Ahzeemah turned over Gold Cup runner-up Simenon in the Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup, a Group 2 over 2m.

Ahzeemah is tremendously consistent and has not finished outside the first two on his last ten starts now. Indeed, he has never finished outside the first four in his career, so one could argue he got his just reward here.

There's a case for going higher than 113, but that would mean having Ahzeemah higher than Brown Panther, who beat him in the Goodwood Cup. A figure of 113 also ties in with an average winner of the Lonsdale Cup, as does 112 for the runner-up, which is what I have Simenon, half a length behind Ahzeemah, running to at York.

Again, a case can be made for rating this race higher on the beaten horses but Times Up in third has been struggling for form this season and overall I felt happier with 113 for Ahzeemah, which also keeps him below the Gold Cup winner, Estimate, who is on 114.

Whilst talking about the cream of the current staying crop, it would be wrong not to mention the listed March Stakes at Goodwood won by Harris Tweed, who had taken a handicap at the same track in good style by six lengths on his previous outing and been raised to 115 by Martin Greenwood, who was deputising for me while I was on holiday.

This time he had only a head to spare, and Mount Athos actually comes out the better horse as he was giving Harris Tweed 5lb. It was nice to see a return to form from Mount Athos, who could well be going for the Melbourne Cup again, a race in which he finished fifth last year.

From a ratings perspective, this is another contest where there is a case for going higher but I have exercised a degree of caution. Mount Athos started the season on 117 but had dropped to 115 before the March Stakes and despite this good effort I'm reluctant to go higher than that. This was only a listed race, after all and Mount Athos is already rated higher than many stayers who have been running well in pattern company recently, several of whom finished ahead of him in the Goodwood Cup. It means Harris Tweed technically performed to a figure slightly lower than on his previous start, 111 on this occasion.

JWALA STUNS THE SPEEDSTERS
For the third time in four years the 5f Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes threw up a long priced winner - after Sole Power at 100/1 in 2010 and Margot Did at 20/1 in 2011, writes Chris Nash.

Jwala took the 2013 race at odds of 40/1 and in doing so produced a massive career-best figure on her fifteenth start. Although she arrived with a rating of only 103 the form of the placed horses is hard to knock with Shea Shea (favourite and top-rated pre-race on his South African figure of 120) finishing second and Sole Power (second favourite and second top-rated pre-race on his Irish mark of 117) third. The fourth home Hamish McGonagall had been placed in the last two renewals too.

Sole Power is a rock solid performer in these races frequently churning out figures around 115 and I settled on him repeating that level of performance again. That had Hamish McGonagall running to 113 which fits in very well with his figures of 114 and 112 from the last two years. Shea Shea also returns a 115 figure which is below the form he'd shown in Dubai earlier this year but on a par with his two previous runs in Britain in the King's Stand and July Cup.

As a filly Jwala received a 3lb weight allowance from the placed horses and the half length she beat them equates to 2lb. This has her running to a figure of 114 and that will become her revised rating - 11lb higher than her previous best. The decisions on any revisions to the ratings of the second and third will ultimately lie with the handicappers of South Africa (Shea Shea) and Ireland (Sole Power).

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Light shines in St Leger but form hardly sparkles.

TWELVE months on from the disappointment of Camelot's foiled bid for a Triple Crown, Coolmore went one better with victory for Leading Light in the 2013 Ladbrokes St Leger, writes Stephen Hindle.

The reaction of jockey Joseph O'Brien after this year's race, when the question was put to him of whether it makes up for what happened with Camelot, said much about the level of anguish connections must have felt on that occasion when he simply responded "a little bit".

Nothing can be done to rewrite the record books, but at least those involved in the two horses can enjoy looking at the line across from 2013, when they will see Leading Light written under the column titled "Winner".

As with Camelot, Leading Light was sent off favourite, though with odds of 7-2 the expectations weren't quite so high as with 2-5 priced Camelot one year ago. That said, there was obviously a lot of confidence behind Leading Light and it proved justified as he won on merit despite the runner-up, Talent, being slightly interfered with by third-home Galileo Rock under two furlongs out.

Leading Light has now registered five victories in a row since finishing fourth on his debut and is clearly a high-class colt. From a ratings point of view, however, he would not appear to be a vintage St Leger winner.

Much like when he won the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, it is not easy to justify a particularly high view of the race due to the form of those in behind. I've gone for 117, which is a minimum considering the third and fourth (Libertarian) held those ratings beforehand, but my view was tempered by the fact those two had failed to run to their marks on their most recent outings, as had Talent.

Those further down the field rather hold down the form too. I have fifth-placed Foundry running to 112, which would tie in with his previous run, when second to the 113-rated Telescope in the Great Voltigeur. He has essentially repeated that effort as Secret Number was half a length behind him in sixth, having finished the same distance behind him at York.

Ralston Road, seventh here but beaten by only about six lengths, went in rated 98 in Ireland and appears to have run 10lb better than that, while just behind him, Havana Beat and Great Hall also appear to have improved slightly on what they had done pre-race.

Of course, there is a chance that those outside the top half-dozen are flattered and this view could be a little low. That said, the pace, while far from strong, didn't appear particularly steady either, and the time suggests they weren't hanging around too much.

If I do go back and change the level I have taken, when hindsight comes into play, it's more likely I will be raising it rather than lowering it. For now though, this is the lowest rated winner of the Leger since Mastery in 2009. Ironically, Mastery went on to do better than the next three Leger winners put together. In 2010, Mastery won the Hong Kong Vase having earlier taken a Listed race and finished his career rated 120.

Arctic Cosmos could manage only one more win after the 2010 Leger and that was at a much lower level. Masked Marvel has met with defeat on several occasions since his win in 2011, while 2012 winner Encke has not run again since.


Poetry in Motion

Since the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot was upgraded to Group 1 status in 2002, no horse has completed the treble of the three top 6f sprints in Britain, with Newmarket's July Cup and the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock completing the trio, writes Stewart Copeland.

I was hoping, therefore, to see a little bit of history made at the Merseyside track, with this year's leading British sprinter Lethal Force being the first horse to have a shot at doing it.

Sadly it wasn't to be - the writing was on the wall from an early stage and by halfway it was clear the elusive treble was beyond him. Connections reported the going was too soft for their charge, which was a question mark about his chance once rain arrived at the track the day before.

A shame all round but it shouldn't be quickly forgotten how tremendous his performances were during the summer and let's hope he gets another chance to showcase his talent before he retires to stud at the end of the year.

Despite the above, that shouldn't detract from what was an impressive performance from Gordon Lord Byron, who's been a regular contender in many of the top sprints this year, though only seeing the rear view of Lethal Force on the previous three occasions they'd met.

Gordon Lord Byron's three-length victory was the longest winning distance in the race since Nuclear Debate won by the same margin in 2001, and it could have been arguably more if he hadn't coasted home for the last few strides.

He was one who was always going to benefit from the aforementioned precipitation as he relishes a bit of give in the ground, demonstrated by his previous win in Group 1 company in the 7f Prix de la Foret on heavy going at Longchamp last autumn. He was credited with a rating of 118 for that performance.

As far as his current rating is concerned, being Irish-trained he wouldn't have a published mark in Britain so I consulted the senior Irish handicapper to agree on a figure with him to be published in Ireland. Over the past decade the average median winning rating for the race has been around 117-118 and a calculation using our historical standards suggests a figure as high as 121.

However the pre-race standards based on the current form of those he beat on Saturday suggest a slightly lesser mark, in the region of 119. Even though there's an argument the race could be higher solely on a line through 115-rated runner-up Slade Power, his fellow Irish challenger, the recent ratings achieved by those who followed them home are somewhat below what we would hope to see going in to a Group 1 race, hence the lower pre-race standard.

We felt on balance the latter figure was a better guide for now so we've credited Gordon Lord Byron with a revised rating of 119, a marginal career best nevertheless and on a par with the best performances we've seen in the race this millennium. He shares that accolade with Dream Ahead's success in 2011, and the aforementioned Nuclear Debate, which emphasises what an excellent effort it was from Gordon Lord Byron on Saturday.


The two-year-old season is bubbling up nicely to its climax and with our five championship races kicking off next week with the Fillies' Mile and the Cheveley Park Stakes, it is time to see how the contenders are shaping up, writes Matthew Tester.

The figures mentioned below are my current assessments and my international colleagues may not have the same ratings at this stage. Let us start with the colts.

To my regret, two of the current top three colts might not come to the dance. There has already been the suggestion that Toormore (121 after his National Stakes win on Sunday) and No Nay Never (118 for his Prix Morny) will not be seen again this year. Each has won three from three. Each would have had a great chance in the Dewhurst and the Middle Park Stakes respectively. Each has the potential for greatness but we may have to wait for next year to find out if this can be realised.

War Command (118) has already won the Coventry and the Futurity and he is clearly classy. Others like Outstrip (114 for his win last week in Doncaster's Champagne Stakes) and Berkshire (113 for winning the Chesham at Royal Ascot but not seen since) will be in the mix. Yet it is two other unbeaten colts that have got me really excited.

Australia, a Galileo son of that great mare Ouija Board, won a Group 3 in Ireland by six lengths on only his second start. It is impossible to be sure of the value of the win because there was so little form on which to base it. However, I reckon that he is at least 114 at this stage.

Were he Pegasus reincarnated then you could not have asked him to win any easier. We are expecting to see him here either in the Dewhurst or the Racing Post Trophy and either would be exciting.

Kingman, whose dam won the French Guineas, is the other colt to follow. The mathematics of his two lengths win in the Solario Stakes only get you to 111. The style, however, was unmistakeably impressive. He travelled comfortably behind the leaders and went by them smoothly. He did not pull away after that mostly, I suspect, because it would have been an unnecessary effort.

With no disrespect to his opponents that day, it will take much better horses to make him work hard. The Dewhurst looks the natural target and I am really looking forward to seeing how he copes.

With the fillies, the picture is much clearer. The top three fillies have already met in the Moyglare Stakes.

Rizeena's narrow win over the wayward Kiyoshi and Tapestry is easily the best form that we have witnessed. My ratings for those three are 115 for the winner and 114 for the other two. Rizeena gets better and better, Kiyoshi must surely improve again if she learns to run in a straight line at top speed and Tapestry was badly hampered but beaten less than a length.

The French filly Vorda (112 on my figures) is the only other one getting near to that. I expect to see all four of them running again before the year is out so there is plenty to play for.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Sky Lantern Elusive
for Kate this time

The much awaited rematch between Elusive Kate and Sky Lantern turned into more of a mismatch in the Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, with Richard Hannon's grey filly landing a comfortable success with her old rival back in fourth running way below her best.

Going into the race top rated with a BHA figure of 119 earned in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, Sky Lantern swooped late for a one-length success and using third-placed Duntle (111) as a guide to the level, I have her running to 117+ on the day and obviously she stays on 119, while progressive runner-up Integral took another step forward with a career-best of 115.

I have Elusive Kate (who, as usual, hung at the business end on ground that was plenty fast enough for her) performing to a mark of 106 in fourth but she also retains her pre-race mark of 117 as there is little wrong with her Group 1 successes in the Falmouth and when beating the aforementioned Duntle a comfortable two and a half lengths in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville in July.

The other disappointment of the race was Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Just The Judge on whom forcing tactics were used for the first time and plainly were not a success. She faded away tamely inside the final couple of furlongs and I have her running to a moderate 87 in finishing sixth of the seven runners - she however, will also retain her pre-race rating of 110 as again there is little wrong with her early- to mid-season efforts.

The best miling performance of the week however, came when Mike de Kock's Soft Falling Rain took the Group 2 Nayef Joel Stakes in convincing style. Runner-up Montiridge appears to have flattened off now in terms of improvement but he bounced back from his below-par display at Haydock to run to his pre-race rating of 115 in my book, suggesting that Soft Falling Rain put up a career-best 122.

It may well be that there is a bit more to come from this South African bred and he is certainly worthy of a place in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes line-up on Champions Day at Ascot. With question marks over a number of the top-rated contenders for the race (Toronado 126, Dawn Approach 125 and Olympic Glory 124) he at least heads for the race in form and on the up and the way he stayed on up the hill at Newmarket suggests that Ascot's straight mile will hold few fears for him.

The Juvenile Fillies Conundrum

The Fillies' Mile and the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, the two Group 1 contests in Britain for two-year-old fillies, answered some questions but, as always, raised fresh ones, writes Matthew Tester.

So, with only France's Prix Marcel Boussac likely to upset the current order, there are still differences of opinion as to who is the top filly. I have to meet with my European colleagues at the end of November to hammer out an agreement.

For me the top filly at the moment is Vorda, winner of the Cheveley Park Stakes. The only time that she has ever been beaten was by the exceptionally smart colt No Nay Never in the Prix Morny. Even in defeat she had behind her Rizeena who went on to beat Kiyoshi and Tapestry in the Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland next time. Brilliant though Kiyoshi is, she has not quite reproduced the excitement of her win in Royal Ascot's Albany Stakes. Maybe I got a little carried away with the Moyglare form and I have brought that down a little in my figures.

Rizeena probably did not run to her best when she was beaten in last week's Fillies' Mile. She started racing in April and, running over a mile for the first time, did not seem to have the acceleration that we associate with her. She was also a little keen in the early stages, something that has not really been a factor before. Last week she failed to hold Chriselliam, trained by Charlie Hills. Although Chriselliam was the pick of the paddock, she was still a surprise package since she had been beaten in a Listed race at Haydock the previous time out.

There are plenty of other horses from the Fillies' Mile that support my view that Rizeena was not at her absolute best. So where does all that leave us? I have Vorda now on 114, Rizeena on 113 on her best form in Ireland, Kiyoshi on 111 and the same figure for Chriselliam. Miss France also earned a rating of 111 for her win in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes. There may be plenty more to come from her and she does still, I believe, hold an entry in Sunday's Prix Marcel Boussac in France.

In the colts' races, the key win was by Berkshire in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. The form of his Royal Ascot win in the Chesham could hardly be looking better. The placed horses have all won big races since and my figure for Berkshire of 113 makes it the best performance to win that race for many years. He is a big horse who hits the ground hard as he gallops. So I had doubts whether the fast ground at Newmarket would be ideal and whether he would cope with the tricky downhill run to the Dip. Racing a little too keenly after his long layoff, he did not in truth handle things that well. He looked beaten until finally stretching on the rising ground to the line and leading close home. But perhaps it is the mark of good athletes that they can still win even when things do not go right. On my figures he won despite only running to a rating of 108; but I still stand by the fact that he is a 113-rated horse when everything works out.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Terrific Treve queen of Europe after Arc romp
IN RECENT years the female of the species has been more deadly than the male in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. This year Treve has made it three filly winners in a row for the world's richest race on turf, writes Stephen Hindle.

Following on from Danedream in 2011 and Solemia in 2012, Treve trounced her rivals with an authoritative display, winning by five lengths from Japanese raider Orfevre, who was filling the runner-up spot for the second year in a row.

The first five home were all trained either in France or Japan, with third-placed Intello and fifth-home Penglai Pavilion, along with the winner representing La Tricolore, while the Japanese Derby winner Kizuna came home in fourth. The first of the British contingent was Al Kazeem, who finished sixth having appeared to stumble about five furlongs out.

Now unbeaten in five starts, Treve is most certainly a worthy winner and with a pencilled-in figure of 129 I rank her on a par with Danedream. The World Rankings Committee has still to arrive at a final figure and several members have proposed 130, which would make Treve the highest rated Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner since Sea The Stars in 2009.

Treve's winning margin was a smooth five lengths, which I have called 8lb. Taking away the 3lb fillies' allowance, that makes her 5lb superior to Orfevre, who we in Britain had producing a number of 124 performances going into the race. Not only does that fit but Intello, a neck behind Orfevre, could be 123 on his third in the Marois in August. Two lengths further back, Kizuna on 120 is also a decent fit, as he beat Ruler of The World by a short head in the Niel. We have a figure of 120 for Ruler of The World in the Derby, albeit a Derby which is not really working out, Ruler of The World could finish only seventh on this occasion.

The disappointment of the race was arguably Flintshire, who turned heads with his victory in the Grand Prix de Paris in July but failed to fire in the Niel and now the Arc. Leading Light, perhaps unsurprisingly on form, failed to make much impact too, though he had a rather torrid time of things in terms of getting a clear run in the straight and this effort is worth forgiving.

Of course, there are many valuable supporting races on Arc weekend, and one of the few Group 1s for stayers, the Qatar Prix du Cadran, took place approximately two hours after the Arc. Only fifth in the Gold Cup back in June, Altano found this contest much more to his liking, wearing down Marco Botti's Tac De Boistron, who ran a blinder considering he raced keenly for much of the race, to win by two and a half lengths.

Tac De Boistron was technically the first Bri tish runner home behind the German-trained winner, but it was something of a return to familiar territory for him as he used to be a regular in French staying races, his best previous effort a win in the 2012 Prix Maurice de Nieuil. High Jinx was fancied by many, having finished second in last year's Cadran, but he hasn't really fired this term and looks set to end of the season on 110 after starting out on 113, having finished only fifth.

The other British raider, Times Up, who beat High Jinx in the Doncaster Cup, was a respectable third but I have him running below his rating of 112. The front pair pulled six lengths clear and this was clearly one of the best staying performances of the season. With a past figure of 115 on Tac De Boistron, I took the view that he had surely returned to at least that level, which gave me a figure of 118 for Altano, having called the two and a half lengths 3lb. On 118, Altano has put in the joint best performance in the staying division this year on my figures, the other being Voleuse De Coeurs in the Irish St Leger.

Maarek relishes the mud
The opening race on Arc day was the Group 1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp, and a well-contested lead through the early stages rather set things up for a couple coming from behind, writes Chris Nash.

The winner was the Irish-trained Maarek who had won a Group 3 at Newbury on his previous start. He is at his best in a well-run race on soft ground and so had everything in his favour on Sunday. He arrived in Paris with an Irish rating of 111 but had reached a mark of 114 when winning the British Champions Sprint at Ascot last year and I have him running to the same figure here - rather like the other French races this is just my opinion and has yet to be verified by the World Rankings Committee.

A short-neck behind Maarek was the French-trained Catcall, who for me shaped like the best horse for much of the race and could perhaps be considered an unlucky loser. He cruised through the majority of the contest and probably ended up in front that bit too soon as a result - he has a reputation for needing to be produced as late as possible. I have him on 113, which is a career-best, and could easily see him doing better again next year when things drop right.

The form looks solid judged on the British-trained third, fourth and fifth. Hamza is generally consistent and I have him producing yet another 108-performance in third, whilst Jwala and Reckless Abandon both have Group 1 successes to their name, but neither was seen to best effect. Reckless Abandon's three-year-old season hasn't quite matched up to his first campaign but there remains every chance that he can improve on this as an older horse if kept in training.

Tropical Paradise
Understandably the main focus of attention was at Longchamp this weekend, but there was also some high-class sprint action on these shores and the Dean Ivory-trained Tropics arguably posted a performance in advance of what Maarek did in the Abbaye when running away with the 6f Group 3 John Guest Bengough Stakes at Ascot, writes Stewart Copeland.

Tropics' form has been on a gradual upward curve all season with the exception of a rare poor effort when sent off a well-backed favourite in the Ayr Gold Cup last time. He soon banished the memory of that run with an emphatic success at Ascot, taking his form to a level where Group 1 races are now firmly on the agenda. The Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot next year was mentioned by connections as his long term aim and on this evidence that's a realistic target.

In analysing the race, both the historical and pre-race standards point to a figure in the 115-117 brackets. I eventually settled on 116, a 9lb rise from his pre-race rating of 107. Taking that view means that the second Music Master has also put up a career best, improving his rating from 103 to 108. The three-year-old colt Music Master had been exclusively campaigned over 7f this season, but often shaped as if he'd improve for a drop in trip. My colleague, who was on duty at Ascot, described him as very much a sprinter in appearance as well. Filling the frame were Hoof It and Heeraat, who both ran creditably and add further substance to the form.

Having been sold for $280,000 as a foal and then $700,000 as a yearling, Tropics didn't see a racecourse until late in his four-year old season. He's clearly now making up for lost time and it's remarkable given what he's achieved that the Ivory stable paid only 2,500 guineas for him. That's what I call a bargain!

Seventh Heaven
The Betfred Challenge Cup at Ascot on Saturday is one of the richest handicaps of the Flat season and it once again attracted a classy field, headed by Ascription, who came into the race rated 109, writes Mark Olley.

As an early closing race I am used to seeing many runners compete from a rating that has since been revised, but most unusually only one horse, Arnold Lane, was running from anything other than his current rating. He was due to drop by 1lb from the 108 he raced from to 107 and I have him running to that revised figure.

When I blogged about this race last year, I remember saying that I based the race around Arnold Lane, who finished third then, as he was so consistent. His rating has gone from 99 to 108, mainly due to a Group 3 win in Germany, but I find myself again basing the race around him, Redvers, Shamaal Nibras and Es Que Love who all finished in a heap for fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh.

The race went to the only three-year-old, Heaven's Guest, who was ridden by late replacement Ryan Moore after his intended mount Wentworth was taken out. They were in a group tracking pacesetter Es Que Love, kicked for home inside the final furlong and then held the fast-finishing Bertiewhittle and Loving Spirit. Heaven's Guest moves up 4lb to a new career-high rating of 104, while Bertiewhittle goes to 102 and Loving Spirit to 100.

Bertiewhittle has been something of a nearly horse this season having finished second in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May and also in valuable handicaps at Newcastle and Doncaster. David Barron's day was not made any better by second-favourite Big Johnny D hitting his head on the stalls and not running any sort of race.

Over at Redcar the Listed Guisborough Stakes was won in taking fashion by Top Notch Tonto. He has been very progressive this season, but there was an element of looking flattered about his Group 3 win at Haydock last time. He proved emphatically here that that was no fluke by conceding 5lb to the 110-rated Caspar Netscher.

I decided Caspar Netscher was more likely to have run to the 107 I had him running to when fourth in the Group 2 Park Stakes last time than the 110 he achieved when second to Garswood in the Group 2 Lennox at Goodwood. The race standards for the runner-up suggest a figure of 107 which also helped with my decision. All of the above means that Top Notch Tonto has a new rating of 115, which is the highest rating achieved by any horse in this race since it was granted Listed status back in 2003.

Finally on to the Qatar Prix de la Foret at Longchamp which is the only Group 1 7f race run in Europe. As this race was on Sunday it technically falls into this coming week's racing and any rating changes for the British runners won't come into effect until next Tuesday.

Gordon Lord Byron set an electric pace and rather teed the race up for the ultra-patiently-ridden Moonlight Cloud. She swept through under Thierry Jarnet to win going away by three lengths in a visually stunning style. I called the three lengths 8lb and have her moving up 1lb to a new mark of 123. This is just my opinion as I am only responsible for the British trained runners, though as such I can say that third-placed Garswood's new rating is likely to be a career high 117 (up 6lb).

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Dice Scatters her Cesarewitch rivals
I’ve never played the dice game “Yahtzee”, but I am familiar with it, writes Stephen Hindle.

Having done some research, the odds of rolling a Yahtzee on your first turn are bigger than 1,000-1, therefore Scatter Dice’s victory in the Betfred Cesarewitch possibly wasn’t that much of a surprise, relatively speaking.

Regardless of that, anyone who backed Scatter Dice will no doubt be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. Perhaps some of those individuals did so based on what happened last season, when Aaim To Prosper obliged at the same price of 66-1.

Scatter Dice’s credentials were hardly obvious going in. She was on a losing run of 20 and was due to drop 2lb having finished unplaced in three outings since the weights came out.

Wearing a first-time visor, her chance looked even smaller when the gates opened as she blew the start. If anything though, it may have been a blessing in disguise as the generous pace helped her outstay her opponents, and in the end she scored by a widening three lengths.

I generally work with 1lb per length in races over such long distances as this 2m2f race. Having won going away and lost so much ground at the start, I felt it was fair to credit Scatter Dice with a shade extra and therefore called the three lengths 4lb.

My rating was based largely on the second, Waterclock, who finished second to a horse called Argent Knight two starts earlier. By raising him 3lb to 91 here, he would still meet Argent Knight on better terms. That meant a new rating of 95 for Scatter Dice, who ran off 88. There was scope for going slightly higher but it still means a career-high mark for each of the first three, Lieutenant Miller going to 93 from 91 having finished half a length behind Waterclock in third.

Only slightly further back were Chiberta King, who was once rated 108 but competed off 102 here, Pallasator and Oriental Fox. The last-named pair were both due to go up by 2lb and I have them running 1lb below that here, which is why there is scope to go slightly higher on the level of the race. I have decided to leave them as they are in any case as I feel they are both fairly treated, even though it would mean them having to meet Chiberta King on slightly worse terms after he has gone up by only 1lb.

Of the others at single-figure prices, favourite Tiger Cliff, who won the Ebor, finished a respectable eighth here. French raider Smoky Hill looked thrown in based on his fourth in a Group 3 at Longchamp since the Cesarewitch weights came out, but appeared not to stay and came home seventeenth. Domination, the sole Irish representative, won the Cesarewitch trial last year and came here on the back of two wins in handy company over hurdles, but he finished twenty-fifth having been sent off an 8-1 co-second favourite.

Streaking Hot

Rain has brought much softer ground, the horses’ coats are changing and not all of the results are making sense. Let me illustrate that with two examples from last weekend, writes Matthew Tester.

One week ago Ascot hosted the Group 3 BMW Cornwallis Stakes in which Hot Streak won and Kickboxer was a surprise package in third. He had been beaten in a handicap on his previous start off 79. Yet here he was with nine apparently better horses behind him in a Group race. That made it a really difficult race to rate and I assumed that everything behind Kickboxer must have run way below form. All the same, he had to go flying up the ratings for what looked like a career best performance.

Hot Streak came out again on Saturday and ran a tremendous race to be second in the Group 1 Vision.AE Middle Park Stakes. And Kickboxer? Well he was only tenth in a York handicap on Friday still running off his old 79 mark.

A more lowly example came from Wolverhampton on Saturday. Nine days earlier Shyron had won a handicap by half a length and a head from Sweet Amalie over the same course and distance. Sweet Amalie was 4lb better off so it should have been very close between them. But no - Shyron was backed down to odds on and won again with Sweet Amalie about six lengths further away than she had been nine days earlier.

Going back to Hot Streak, the only one to beat him in the Middle Park was his stablemate Astaire, winner of the Gimcrack Stakes at York, who put up a strong front-running display. His rating moves up to 114, which is historically towards the low side of expectations for this race.

The other Group 1 on the Newmarket Future Champions card was the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. War Command added to his wins in the Coventry and the Futurity but it was a fairly workmanlike performance on ground that he probably did not relish. His figure was therefore unspectacular for the Dewhurst running to 117. So how come both those championship races were on the low side?

I think the reason was that some of the very best horses had already been put away for the season. No Nay Never, rated 120 in my book, was finished for the year after the Darley Prix Morny with three wins out of three. The second that day, Rizeena, won a Group 1 next time as did the third, Vorda. I have no doubt that No Nay Never could have won a Middle Park but he was never going to run.

Similarly, the unbeaten Toormore, the unbeaten Kingman and the impressive Australia would have set War Command a much tougher task had they turned up for the Dewhurst. Aidan O’Brien, trainer of both War Command and Australia, has told everyone that he believes that Australia is much the superior of the two. These two races often used to be where the very best would meet and the champion would be decided. Kingman had met with a setback but it seems to have been the choice of connections not to run Toormore , No Nay Never and Australia again this year.

This is not to take anything away from admirable horses like Astaire and War Command who can only beat what turns up on the day.

Of course I wish those championship races to be contested by all the top horses. But I expect that the process of putting some of the candidates away before Future Champions day will continue and this will have a knock-on effect on the end of season ratings. In essence the way to earn an exceptional rating is to beat a field of horses who already have very high figures. Five years ago the European two-year-old Classification included 21 horses with ratings of 115 or above. Last year there were only eight of them.

There are many reasons why this might have happened but the way in which the horses are being campaigned must be part of it. You will have to wait until the Classifications press conference in January to find out how many there are this year. But do not expect any massive reversal of fortunes. The world of two-year-old racing is definitely changing and we have to reflect that in our figures.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Ascot plays host to coronation of champions
The third Qipco British Champions Day might have lacked a Frankel but nonetheless drew fields with strength and depth for its five flagship races and both the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Champion saw very high-class efforts from their victors. Here are our full views.

Olympic Strikes Gold

Those hoping for the definitive answer as to who is the best miler in Europe, and possibly the world, were left continuing to scratch their heads after the result of the Qipco-sponsored Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (QEII) on Saturday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Genuine contenders in the shape of Dawn Approach (pre-race 125), Olympic Glory (124), Maxios (123) and Soft Falling Rain (122) lined up for the contest, but on rain-softened ground that scuppered the chances of many it was the blinkered first time Olympic Glory that strode to a convincing three-and-a-quarter-length success, with Dawn Approach doing best of the others in fourth, a respectable six lengths behind Richard Hannon’s colt.

It is not a result to have total confidence in the figures but I have promoted Olympic Glory 1lb to a new mark of 125. I had him running to 124 when beaten a short head by French wonder-filly Moonlight Cloud (receiving 3lb, running to 122) in the Jacques le Marois at Deauville in August, and now that filly has been promoted to 123 following her subsequent success in the Foret at the Arc meeting I am quite happy to keep the pair of them in line at 123 and 125 – suggesting that she would once again just get the better of Olympic Glory if they met at the same terms.

Runner-up on Saturday Top Notch Tonto relished the testing conditions and continued his progress through the ranks by posting a career-best 118, whilst third-placed Kingsbarns showed a welcome return to form with a performance of 117.

This level for the race suggests Elusive Kate (fifth) ran very much the same race (110) as she did behind Excelebration in last year’s QEII and stablemate Gregorian (sixth – 107 ) ran to within 1lb of the form he had shown on his previous start when eighth in the Daniel Wildenstein, again at the Arc meeting. That stacks up pretty neatly at the present time as far as I am concerned.

Dawn Approach beat Olympic Glory by three-quarters of a length in last year’s Coventry at Royal Ascot, but has now had the tables reversed the two times they have met as three-year-olds. I believe he ran to 113 on ground that was probably too soft for him on Saturday and I still think he was seen in best light when runner-up to Toronado in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood late in July when running to 125. This suggests that Toronado at 126 for that performance still has the edge over his stablemate and hopefully he will give us a clue as to how reliable that figure is if he contests the Breeders’ Cup Mile in a couple of weeks – another below par performance there and maybe a minor rethink might be needed before I head to Hong Kong in December to help assemble the Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings for 2013!

Not by Farhh

Unlike the murky waters of the QEII the Qipco Champion Stakes saw the front three in the market fight out a pulsating finish, and Farhh produced as good a performance as has been seen in the 1m2f division all season as he narrowly held off race-regular Cirrus Des Aigles, writes Graeme Smith.

The Champion wasn’t an entirely satisfactory contest in the end, with Farhh much better placed to strike at his pacemaker than Cirrus Des Aigles and Ruler Of The World when the tempo eventually lifted, but I felt he was holding them off by the finish (having failed to settle for much of the race) and the result proved an excellent fit with pre-race ratings.

Cirrus Des Aigles hasn’t been the force of old this season and the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings Committee’s figure of 123 for his Prix Dollar success comes up some 8lb shy of his pinnacle from 2012. A reproduction of that figure fits in neatly with the 124 Farhh was awarded in last year’s World Rankings with the pair separated by a neck, and the knock-on improvement of the Derby winner Ruler of The World (a further half-length behind) from 120 to 122 is perfectly feasible considering he was lightly raced prior to Epsom and hadn’t been seen to best effect in three starts in the interim.

The trio drew some six lengths clear of Farhh’s pacemaker Hunter’s Light. His current form isn’t the easiest to pin down following a luckless passage when seemingly full of running in the Arlington Million, but he came on 113 and this level puts him very close to that at 112.

Historical standards taken from both the two previous runnings of the Champion Stakes at Ascot, and then including the final few Newmarket renewals have this field between 3lb and 6lb below the mean, but that’s probably to be expected with both standards from pre-race ratings and recent performances suggesting that would be the case.

Even at 124 the injury-hit Farhh comes out as the joint-highest 1m2f performer of the season alongside Al Kazeem – although both come out behind The Fugue at 123 when her sex allowance is taken into account – and while we’ll never know now it’s been announced he’s off to Dalham Hall I have a sneaking suspicion we might never have seen the very best of him. I suppose Cirrus Des Aigles and Ruler Of The World could still endorse this form in 2014!

If the Champion was run at a modest pace the Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes proved quite the opposite and made for a thorough test of stamina at the 1m4f trip. That probably played a part in the margin the fast-improving Seal Of Approval thrashed her seven rivals by, but even a slightly more reserved view of the form than might have been the case has her coming out as a very smart filly.

Assessment through Belle De Crecy’s pre-race rating of 110 is a more modest viewpoint than going through any of those behind the front two, but that approach is also supported by pre-race ratings and recent form standards and still has Seal Of Approval improving not only past Talent’s 114 Oaks-winning figure but also the 115 Dalkala had shown when gaining a narrow verdict in the Opera a fortnight earlier. Historical standards from the previous two Ascot runnings of this race (as a Group 2!) do suggest 1lb or so higher, but given doubts as to how well some of Seal of Approval’s rivals saw the race out – Dalkala flattened out notably after being delivered a furlong out – this sits most comfortably with me for what’s a huge standout in Seal Of Approval’s career so far.

The other race I assessed on Ascot’s Champions Day card was the Group 3 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup. Four of the first five home were trained in Ireland and a slight discrepancy between mine and the Irish Handicapper’s initial assessment of this race means my figures certainly aren’t set in stone.

Harris Tweed came in for an excellent front-running ride from George Baker (who gained more than ample compensation later in the afternoon on Seal Of Approval) only to be ground down on the line by Royal Diamond and my view was that the latter could be credited as improving 2lb on his pre-race figure of 112, which fitted in pretty neatly with the third, fourth, fifth and sixth as well as an interpretation of his Irish St Leger Trial-winning form.

Harris Tweed was rated 115 pre-race, which was his 2012 Rankings figure, but he’d been raised back to that level on what we thought he had in reserve when winning a handicap at Goodwood two starts back and I was quite happy to bring that back to 114 for the time being, and have him level with my assessment of Royal Diamond after the pair had been split by only a nose. As I say though, the Irish Handicapper obviously has a very strong line to this race and we’ll have to see how the World Rankings Committee views it.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Wetherby wonders
Wetherby saw the wraps taken off some of National Hunt racing’s big guns on Saturday. The two flagship events are covered by a couple of our jumps handicappers returning to the blog after summer breaks. Also, events at Santa Anita went some of the way to sorting out pecking orders in the two-year-old division and a grateful Matthew Tester gives his take on current standings.

Topper the pops

Wetherby’s Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase lost much of its lustre with Long Run, the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and 5-4-on favourite, tailed off last and clearly not himself, writes John de Moraville.

That, though, will not have bothered winning trainer Kim Bailey, who has always thought the world of Harry Topper, neck conqueror of Wayward Prince in a thriller. Bailey compares Harry Topper with his 1995 Gold Cup hero Master Oats but the six-year-old still has a long way to go to match the exploits of that remarkable chestnut.

Due to the proximity of gallant 50-1 shot Wayward Prince, slammed 11 lengths by Silviniaco Conti in last year’s Charlie Hall, it is impossible to rate Harry Topper higher than 153 – a long way off Gold Cup standard. But Jason Maguire’s mount has won all his four completed starts over fences and is sure to improve as he gains further experience and brushes up his jumping.

Wayward Prince, giving the winner 4lb, ran his heart out in second, replicating the 155 posted when sixth to First Lieutenant in Aintree’s Betfred Bowl back in the spring.

Unioniste weakened into third place recording a performance figure of 147, 6lb below his best of 153. That came in the big pre-Christmas handicap chase at Cheltenham last December, run, perhaps significantly, over a half-mile shorter trip.

Are you Ruby in disguise?

Good old Tidal Bay. What a star, writes Martin Greenwood.

Approaching 13-years-old and off the course for almost 12 months, Tidal Bay won his second successive Bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby on Saturday and confirmed he is as good as ever over hurdles in the process.

For all his quality, Tidal Bay isn’t the most straightforward of customers and new rider Sam Twiston-Davies had obviously done his homework for he produced an almost carbon copy of the ride given by Ruby Walsh a year earlier. If anything, Twiston-Davies held on even longer than Walsh and produced Tidal Bay to lead close home after a mistake at the last. My pre-race figures suggested there should be around two lengths between Tidal Bay (160) and last season’s Coral Cup winner Medinas (154, receiving 4lb) and it very nearly worked out that way with a length between them at the line. I have left both those figures where they were, while increasing the talented but recalcitrant third Captain Sunshine from 140 to 145. His pre-race figure came from the Pertemps – a race which has worked out well in the main.

The day before saw the introduction of two interesting recruits to the hurdling division. Oscar Rock, a good bumper horse trained by Harry Fry last season, lashed up at Wetherby, while Carraig Mor, a winning Irish pointer, was equally impressive in hosing up at Uttoxeter. It’s hard to be certain about exactly what was achieved such was their ease of victory, but it’s fair to suggest we are talking a minimum of 140 for both, which means both look extremely exciting prospects.

Flying the flag

The first day of the Breeders’ Cup weekend saw wins in both the Juvenile Turf races for British-trained runners and I was delighted, writes Matthew Tester.

Starting with the boys, Outstrip was the top-rated horse going into the race, a couple of pounds clear of the Aidan O’Brien-pair Giovanni Boldini and Wilshire Boulevard on my figures.

Outstrip’s best previous performance was when winning Doncaster’s Champagne Stakes by three lengths. Back in third that day was Cable Bay who went on to finish second to War Command in the Dewhurst. The fast pace at Santa Anita definitely helped Outstrip and he stormed home to win by half a length from Giovanni Boldini with the USA-trained favourite in third. I have a new rating of 117 for the winner (up 3lb) and it was a notable success for new trainer Charlie Appleby.

The Juvenile Fillies Turf saw a clash between Vorda, winner of the 6f Cheveley Park Stakes, and Chriselliam, winner of the Fillies’ Mile – Newmarket’s two Group 1 races for two-year-old fillies.

I was not confident that Vorda was going to like going two furlongs further. The fact that she finished seventh should not detract from her excellent Newmarket win. As for Chriselliam, Richard Hughes had been overflowing with praise after her last piece of work in Lambourn and a win was always on the cards. Her Newmarket success had been a surprise as she had previously been beaten in a listed race at Haydock. I almost certainly undervalued the Fillies’ Mile because it was such a big step up on her earlier form. This time I am happy to raise her rating to 117 and this looks sure to make her the champion two-year-old filly of the Classifications. Vorda stays on her 114 on my figures despite the understandable disappointment.

One thing to bear in mind is that the official distances in the USA do not seem to do her justice. On the day she was deemed to have won by two and a half lengths. Looking at the video, the margin seems to be at least three lengths. Most of the other distances look to be a little understated too meaning that her win was even more impressive than the result suggests.

Charlie Hills, in only his second full season as a trainer, has already won a Classic with Just the Judge and now looks set to have a Champion. Chriselliam is an 8-1 shot for next year’s 1,000 Guineas and she looks to me the most likely winner of that race on current evidence.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Solving the puzzle of Johns Spirit's success
LAST weekend’s Open meeting at Cheltenham was the first recognised festival of the winter season and the best of the action from the first two days is covered at length in this week’s bulletin. As Sunday’s card falls into the next racing week a round-up of those races will be included in our next edition.

That’s the spirit

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season and as I opened the Racing Post on Saturday morning and saw the Pricewise table showing 8-1 the field I was far happier than last year when faced with 7-4 favourite Grands Crus, writes Mark Olley.

An open betting heat certainly doesn’t mean it will be a competitive race, but at least it shows that we have set a decent puzzle. And a puzzle is what I faced when looking at the result.

There were numerous questions that needed answers. Johns Spirit clearly idled on the run-in – how far could the winning margin have been? How much ground did Colour Squadron lose when hampered at the second last? Where would Easter Meteor have finished if he had not fallen? All the answers are subjective, but all have a bearing on the new ratings of those involved.

I decided to base the race around the fourth, Attaglance, who raced from a mark of 137. His sole previous run at Cheltenham was when landing the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the 2012 Festival from a rating of 139. I don’t think it is unfair to say that his chasing career has been mixed to date, but I feel that is mainly due to his lack of opportunities on his favoured good ground. Malcolm Jefferson’s gelding clearly loves Cheltenham and now things seem to be falling into place he’s clearly well handicapped on the best of his hurdles form.

Irish-challenger Hidden Cyclone moves up 3lb to a new rating of 155. A figure which it could be argued he also achieved in beating 142-rated Spring Heeled by six lengths (conceding 7lb) at Listowel in September.

Now to address the question of Colour Squadron. I think he lost at least four lengths when hampered at the second last, mainly due to loss of momentum at such a crucial stage of the race, and he also wasn’t helped by wandering all over the run-in. On balance I have called the one and a half lengths between him and Hidden Cyclone 4lb which means Colour Squadron has a new rating of 146 (+7).

My next decision was how much ground had Johns Spirit forfeited by idling. I had no doubt he had idled and was encouraged to see that Jonjo O’Neill agreed, certainly according to his quote in the Racing Post - "I was thinking that’s a bit early. He was idling all the way to the line . . .". In the end I called the three-quarters of a length margin over where I considered Colour Squadron would have finished 2lb, which means I have him 6lb superior to Hidden Cyclone in third and going up 9lb to 148.

The final of the three questions regarding where would Easter Meteor have finished had he not fallen is probably the hardest as two out at Cheltenham is still a fair way from home. I don’t think he was travelling as well as Johns Spirit but felt he probably was going as well as Colour Squadron. However, having made much of the running I’m not sure he would have rallied as well as Philip Hobbs’s gelding eventually did. Alongside Hidden Cyclone is probably fair and so he moves to 143 (+3). However, he has now made significant errors on all three of his runs this season and has some big questions to answer regarding his fencing.

Novice round-up

It is that time of year when the better novice chasers start to appear and I was impressed with Smad Place at Exeter, writes Phil Smith.

I had him performing to 148 when beating Ardkilly Witness (134) by an easy seven lengths. As a result I have given him a chase handicap mark of 148 as my colleague Mark Olley had him performing to the same level when he fell at the last at Huntingdon.

This is 8lb lower than his hurdles mark but of course he has not shown himself to be as good a chaser as he is a hurdler yet. As he won a handicap hurdle off 144 I would be confident he can be competitive in a chase handicap off 148.

It puts him just behind Le Bec (149) who clearly ran in a more competitive novice chase at Cheltenham and looks every inch a chaser for the future. He beat Shutthefrontdoor (146) by three quarters of a length but I called the margin 3lb as I felt Le Bec was idling in the last 50 yards having already put the race to bed.

Just behind was Sam Winner, who was receiving 5lb. I have allocated him a chase rating of 140 which is 1lb lower than his hurdles mark. This gives connections an option, as they can run him off top weight in one of the new (this season) novice handicap chases or they can put him in another class 2 novice.

I was pleased with my Grade 3 handicap on the Cheltenham card, the Murphy Group Chase, as the first five home were covered by less than a second. You have to take your hat off to old Knockara Beau who was badly hampered and made a couple of uncharacteristic jumping errors towards the end of the race yet was still only beaten by two lengths.

My marker horses were Monbeg Dude and Godsmejudge, who finished only a neck apart, so they stayed on the marks they ran off. As a result Bradley who was just ahead of them went up 1lb to 133 and Knockara Beau went up 3lb to 148. The winner Alvarado won nicely by two lengths despite forfeiting ground when coming wide on the home turn so he went up by 7lb to 139.

So if the first five were to meet again next time Godsmejudge would be 7lb better with the winner for a four-and-a-half-length beating, Monbeg Dude would also be 7lb better for four and a quarter lengths, Bradley would be 6lb better off with Alvarado for three and three quarter lengths and Knockara Beau would be 4lb better off for a two-length beating.

My job is to set a puzzle that you find difficult to solve so which of these horses would you select to win under the same conditions in the future? Hopefully it will take you more than just a few seconds to make your decision.

Royal procession

Anyone who witnessed the hurdling debut of the Nicky Henderson-trained Royal Irish Hussar would have been hard to convince that day that, come the middle of November, the colt would be demonstrably the most accomplished juvenile seen in Britain and Ireland so far, writes David Dickinson.

On that Market Rasen debut, Royal Irish Hussar didn’t jump a twig and it appeared to be his Flat class that got him home. An improved display followed at Wetherby under a more positive ride but Saturday’s Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Prestbury Hurdle at Cheltenham represented another step forward. In the first two throughout, his relentless galloping and unrecognisably slick jumping wore his rivals down one by one in a better time than the winner of a competitive handicap on the end of the previous day’s card.

I have settled on a rating of 147 for the winner with the Irish-trained Guitar Pete running to 141. The admirable Akdam, although in trouble some way from home, stuck to his guns and once again seems to have run his race. The disappointments Azza and Herod The Great looked to pay the price for trying to go with the winner. Royal Irish Hussar is now likely to steer clear of winter soft ground but given good health seems sure to be a major player in March’s juvenile showpiece.

Ruby Walsh’s sole Friday ride was on the Tony Martin-trained hotpot Quick Jack, who duly obliged in the novices’ handicap after travelling strongly. He was not the only one travelling strongly jumping two out and this competitive event has a habit of throwing up future winners. I would suggest that this year’s renewal will prove no exception.
 
Halo takes the spoils
but Cross still classy
IT MUST be a nice feeling to be able to win a race for the fifth consecutive occasion with a supposedly ‘inferior' horse, writes Martin Greenwood .

The Stewart family own not only the legendary Big Buck's, winner of the bet365 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury from 2009 to 2012 inclusive, but also the ‘pretty good' Celestial Halo who, like stable-companion Tidal Bay, can still hold his own in top company despite advancing years.

Relatively new to staying trips, Celestial Halo found Solwhit too good in last season's World Hurdle but has since won the Prix La Barka at Auteuil and the latest running of the Long Distance at Newbury, both under new stable jockey Daryl Jacob who has ridden him for his last five victories.

The latest victory had something of a hollow ring to it but that's not Celestial Halo's fault. Making all, which he sometimes does, he jumped easily the best of the quartet who consented to race and had the disappointing pair Medinas and Reve De Sivola put to bed a long way out.

Only the unexposed odds-on shot At Fishers Cross, one of last season's top staying novices, posed any sort of threat to the winner but he lost all chance when screwing mid-air on jumping two out and stumbling badly on landing.

Truth be told, At Fishers Cross hadn't jumped fluently throughout, a trait which was often evident last season, though he was only just behind Celestial Halo when the incident happened. It's not easy to be sure what would have been the outcome had the mishap not occurred, and for now I have taken the view that there would have been very little between them.

Race standards suggest somewhere in the region of the mid 160s for the winner so Celestial Halo is now up 4lb to 165, a mark he won a handicap off back in 2009, and the same as Solwhit. At Fishers Cross was in receipt of 4lb on Saturday so his mark is also up 4lb to 161 with the promise of more to come, especially if his jumping becomes more fluent.

Tent pitched at the top
On a week which saw a number of decent winners in the 2m novice division, most notably the smart Flat performer Mijhaar, who raised the pulse with a fine display on his Friday Doncaster debut, the week's spotlight undoubtedly fell on a fascinating Fighting Fifth Hurdle on Saturday's Newcastle card, writes Dave Dickinson.

In justifying odds-on favouritism the imposing My Tent Or Yours didn't have to quite reproduce his current handicap mark of 160, but his smooth display showed that he has summered well and he is likely to take high rank through the winter.

The race itself actually proved quite straightforward to rate with the 151-rated Grumeti finishing a length in front of Cotton Mill, who appears to have returned to his best mark of 150 in headgear for the first time.

The disappointment was the second-favourite Melodic Rendezvous, who shaped as if things were happening just a little too quickly for him. The form of his win in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton three weeks ago had taken a knock the previous weekend when Far West ran poorly at Haydock and off the back of this run I have dropped the Wincanton race, meaning Jeremy Scott's gelding now has a rating of 152.

Credit should go to four northern yards for supporting such a big conditions race and giving punters an eight-runner field. John Quinn's filly Cockney Sparrow, coming second continues to progress and got herself some Grade 1 black type and a new rating of 147. On the maths it can be argued that Stormy Weather and Rock Relief ran better than their current ratings but both remain unchanged and I have dropped Duke of Navan 3lb to 145.

Tat's the way to do it
Following a losing run of almost two years Tatenen returned to form with a bang in the bet365 Handicap Chase at Newbury, writes Graeme Smith.

The Stewart family's nine-year-old had been sent off favourite for the Arkle and finished second in the Grade 1 Maghull in his novice chasing days when with Paul Nicholls, but he'd really struggled for form in 2012-13 and was taking advantage of a mark some 19lb lower than he'd started that campaign from on Saturday.

Conditions at Newbury made for a fair test but this was one of several handicaps on the card where the field didn't really string out and I've rated Tatenen for value more than the bare eight-length margin over Carrigmorna King having been impressed with just how quickly he powered away after being produced two from home - he was still only three lengths clear at the last.

A new mark of 140 represents a 12lb rise and his trainer Richard Rowe nominated a return visit to Ascot in January as his target for a race he won in both 2011 and 2012, from marks of 137 and 143 respectively.

Carrigmorna King also came in for a rise following his fine effort in second place. A winner over hurdles on his previous start, Philip Hobbs' seven-year-old is relatively unexposed at 2m6f and beyond and I'm sure there'll be people out there who expect further improvement from him if he can brush up on his jumping.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Making their names on the road to Cheltenham
BARELY a week seems to go by at present without some top-class National Hunt racing and this week the road show moved through Huntingdon for the Peterborough Chase to Cheltenham at the weekend.

Several valuable prizes were contested and a couple of lightly-raced sorts took the opportunity to lay down Festival markers in the staying hurdles on Prestbury Park. Our team give their verdict on all of the highlights.

Still the one

Cheltenham’s Saturday feature was Grade 2 Stanjames.com International Hurdle, which attracted a couple of potential Champion Hurdle runners in The New One and Zarkandar and five others to seemingly make up the numbers, writes David Dickinson.

In a less-than-truly-run race Zarkandar found himself in front a long way from home. Hampered by Jumps Road going to the last, he was no match for The New One, who himself was left in front plenty soon enough. My take on the race is that The New One did not need to run to his current 167 to win. My colleague Martin Greenwood has dropped Zarkandar 1lb to show Nigel Twiston-Davies charge as the current superior.

All six finishers take home prize-money, and my main consideration was what to do with the mark of Jumps Road. He clearly belied his odds, beaten just 12 lengths into third, and the bare figures have him running a big career-best, but the time is modest and I don’t believe he improved anywhere near as much as the result suggests. In putting him to 135, I have raised his mark 4lb but not taken him out of a rating band. Is that lenient? We will see.

Further back in the field Court Minstrel and Hawkhill were dropped by 2lb and 3lb respectively, with both having picked up prize-money for their enterprising connections too.

Much more of that

I had two intriguing Grade 2 events to assess at Cheltenham on Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

The second of them, the Osborne House Relkeel Hurdle, only attracted four runners, but it was an international field and all four looked to hold some sort of chance beforehand.

The clear form choice, whichever way you looked at it, was French-raider Gemix who had hammered Solwhit in the French version of the Champion Hurdle back in June. Raced almost exclusively at Auteuil, Gemix looked all at sea round the undulations of Cheltenham and unsurprisingly connections have decided a return journey will not be taken.

Rather surprisingly, in my opinion, Irish-challenger Glens Melody was sent off favourite. While my pre-race rating of 140 may underestimate the mare there was so little to glean from her stroll over inferior opponents at Punchestown on her reappearance that I can’t justify a higher rating at present. I am sure Glens Melody is much better than she showed here though, and she deserves another chance.

That left Salubrious, with recent solid handicap form to his name, and the vast improver More Of That, who was unbeaten, including in two handicaps this season.

The former, usually held up, forced the pace on this occasion, and gave best only close home when joined by More Of That, who was cajoled along by McCoy but looked to have plenty in hand and scored cheekily. The pre-race rating of 153 remains on Salubrious, and I raised More Of That’s figure to 160 from 145. More Of That won’t be contesting handicaps again, that is for sure, and it is interesting that connections are talking about a World Hurdle tilt. He has a fair way to go to win a race of that nature but is certainly going the right way.

Earlier in the afternoon, the very impressive Kings Palace laid down his marker for the top staying novice events in the spring.

Unbeaten in his completed novice hurdles, including when hosing up at Fontwell and Cheltenham in October, Kings Palace already looked a top prospect with a rating of 146, which made him my top rated on his return to Prestbury Park. With his main market rival, who was just behind him rating wise, Saint Roque, possibly not staying and well held in third when falling at the last, Kings Palace was only ever seriously challenged by better known chaser Masters Hill.

Making the running as usual, Kings Palace was fast and fluent throughout and had plenty in hand on top of the 14-length winning margin, with the rest of the field strung out like washing. With the exception of Saint Roque, the standard of opponent wasn’t overly strong but it would be a very conservative view to suggest Kings Palace isn’t a top notch novice.

With five-year standards pointing me to the mid-150s for him his new rating is now 156, which puts him well clear in the embryonic staying novice list. Irish novices such as Apache Stronghold, Briar Hill and Faugheen, all of whom look potentially as smart as Kings Palace, are lurking in the wings, but for now he fully deserves top billing.

Theatre takes centre stage

The Grade 2 Betfred Peterborough Chase has had some high-class winners this century, notably Best Mate, Monet’s Garden, Racing Demon and Edredon Bleu, writes Mark Olley.

The standard of winner has dipped in recent seasons, but that was reversed this year by Riverside Theatre, although he did not need to run anywhere near his current handicap rating as I will explain.

I had one real question to answer when assessing the race - did Riverside Theatre (167) and Captain Chris (169) run to form? It did not take me long to decide that was unlikely, as if they had it would mean that runner-up Champion Court (157) and fifth-placed Alasi (140) had produced big career-best performances.

Champion Court has solid handicap form, winning and finishing second from a rating of 155 in the past year, and was soundly beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time from a rating of 157. He had the run of the race out in front and with his saddle slipping badly on the run-in I decided it much more likely that he had run his race rather than improved significantly. That opinion is backed up by the 11-length margin between Martin Keighley’s gelding and the 140-rated Alasi (received 7lb). Alasi won an Ascot handicap just under three weeks previously and I do not think this was an improvement.

Once I had decided to base the race around Champion Court and Alasi it followed that Riverside Theatre had not run anywhere near his 167 rating as he was in receipt of 6lb from Champion Court. I was initially going to call the half-length winning margin 2lb, but as Champion Court’s saddle had slipped badly on the run-in I decided to call it 1lb, so that meant Riverside Theatre had run to 152.

The five year standard we have for the winner of this race is 157 and to put it into a historical context only Tartak (151 in 2010 when the race was run at Newbury) has posted a lower winning figure this century. The highest rated winner is Best Mate who ran to 170 back in 2002.

I then had to decide what to do with Riverside Theatre’s official rating. It is coming up for two years since he last produced a figure near his rating, when winning the 2012 Ryanair Chase, but three of his four defeats since then have been over 3m, which I think stretches him despite his second to Long Run in the 2011 King George. His sole other run was when fourth in this year’s Ryanair, where he finished two lengths in front of Champion Court and we had him running to 159. Weighing up all of the above I decided to drop him 4lb to a new figure of 163.

A point worth mentioning is that of the seven-strong field none had their rating increased, four were dropped and the other three were left unchanged. Not a common situation.

The other big race I dealt with this week was the Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup Handicap at Cheltenham on Saturday. As usual for a big Saturday handicap this looked ultra-competitive with three of the first four home in the Paddy Power Gold Cup re-opposing. Interestingly despite the rating increases they incurred for the Paddy Power they were the first three in the betting.

I based the race around third-placed Colour Squadron who has now run with credit in three successive Cheltenham handicaps. This means that Cantlow moves up 3lb to a new rating of 151 and Double Ross goes up 7lb to 140 – he idled on the run-in and I called the two-length winning margin 4lb.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Beau crashes Big Buck's return party
A SATURDAY afternoon of high-class NH action very much centred on the return of champion Big Buck's only for his party to be crashed by an unheralded northern challenger as Knockara Beau delivered a knock-out blow on the climb to the line. It was a race that polarised opinions in anticipation of the World Hurdle in March.

Czech mate

All eyes were focussed on Prestbury Park last Saturday, principally on returning superstar Big Buck's, writes Martin Greenwood.

Unbeaten since 2008, Big Buck's was ridden for the first time by young Twiston-Davies following a rather bizarre publicly-discussed change of jockey issue.

Absent for over a year, Big Buck's looked to have found a straightforward task in the Gilliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle even allowing for him conceding weight to all but one of his opponents - his nearest rival on ra tings Reve de Sivola was rated 12lb inferior. Of course you have to factor in whether Buck's was a 100 per cent or near 100 per cent straight, and I think by the end of the Cleeve Hurdle one can only assume he most certainly was not.

Ridden boldly, Buck's looked like his old self for most of the contest, hurdling fluently and seemingly enjoying himself. However after looking the likely winner throughout he tired visibly on the run-in on the testing ground and was swallowed up by surprise winner Knockara Beau and At Fishers Cross.

Opinion post-race seemed divided, some sections arguing he had ‘gone' and others suggesting it was a decent effort after being on the sidelines, and a percentage of both camps arguing he was ridden too forcefully. There may have been a case that Buck's would have won ridden slightly more conservatively but equally there is a chance that the tactics would have made no difference.

I favour taking a positive slant on the comeback, my figures notwithstanding. I have him running to ‘only' 160 compared to his long-standing 174 rating (first put on in 2009), but have dropped him to 170 to acknowledge the element of doubt following his absence. I think there was enough ‘promise' to suggest that he is certainly no back number and feel he still merits being favourite for the World Hurdle, the only caveat there being the race options of super-mare Annie Power.

Back to Knockara Beau, who was ridden as usual by Czech-born Faltejsek. Nowhere near as good as the likes of Big Buck's, he's nonetheless been a star for his small yard and often runs well at Cheltenham, despite the very long journey from Northumberland. He had seemed exposed as a mid to high 140s hurdler and chaser but was rated in the low 150s over hurdles a while back and for now I have increased his rating to 154, with At Fishers Cross back to the 157 he showed in his novice season having produced a better round of jumping.

Knockara Beau was one of many horses to strike a blow for the north on Saturday. The BHA handicapping team is constantly being told that Northern jumpers are up against it, despite several sets of stats proving otherwise....why let the facts spoil a good argument, eh?

As well as Knockara, we had a northern winner of a handicap at Cheltenham and placed horses in both the featured handicap chase and the concluding handicap hurdle. Allied to that, the northern-trained pair of Urban Hymn (142) and Blakemore (140) fought out the finish of the River Don novice hurdle at Doncaster, beating several southern-trained runners in the process. Maybe, just maybe, the doom mongers out there should concentrate on the roses rather than the manure!


Coming of age early

An innovative strategy seems to be paying dividends for the juvenile hurdlers trained by Nick Williams, writes David Dickinson.

By the time Akdam won the first juvenile hurdle in Britain at Hexham in June, the Williams stable was already having runners in juvenile races in France. Le Rocher broke his duck with victory at Dieppe the day after Akdam's initial success. This was not the first juvenile victory for the yard, Fox Norton having scored as early as April at Fontainebleau.

Fox Norton went to the top of my domestic juvenile figures by beating Royal Irish Hussar at Doncaster in December, the second time the pair had met, also the second time that Fox Norton had come out as the better horse at the weights.

In adding Saturday's Grade 2 to his Chepstow Grade 1 success, Le Rocher now goes to the top of the pile with a new rating of 149. Vicenzo Mio is the conundrum here - the form of his Kempton win is working out well but his two runs at Prestbury either side of that success do not stack up nearly as well.

If the juveniles left a few questions to be answered, Annie Power's fluent Doncaster success told us precious little about her that we did not already know. She is good, very good and almost certainly deserving of the 165 rating given to her when beating Zarkandar so well on New Year's Day. The only thing we don't know about her is which Cheltenham championship race she will end up in. In receipt of the mares allowance she would be Hurricane Fly's biggest threat, on our current figures at least.

And so to Hurricane Fly. His was an extraordinary achievement on Sunday in winning his 19th Grade 1. Here again we were left with questions to be answered but this is no time to criticise the winner - he was set a task and he prevailed, end of story. Whether finishing less than three lengths in front of the 13-year-old Captain Cee Bee can be interpreted as the most solid championship form, I very much doubt.

When Our Conor moved up alongside the great horse and out-jumped him at the last, the Fly had to knuckle down and knuckle down he did, and he was pulling away at the line. The race was again not run to suit Jezki and he will likely need a strong pace throughout to play a part in the main event come March.

From a handicapping point of view, what am I supposed to make of Captain Cee Bee's last two runs, career bests at his age? I can see getting him in the right place in the County Hurdle weights (assuming he is entered) as one of next month's challenges!


Valdez brings King in from the cold

The withdrawal of 2012 Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby stripped much of the interest from Doncaster's Racing Post Lightning Novices' Chase, writes John de Moraville.

But that will not have bothered trainer Alan King, for whom hat-trick scorer Valdez ensured the return of the good times after his stable's untimely mid-season shut down.

King stated that Saturday's Grade 2 event would determine whether Valdez was up to Arkle standard or would be better off focussing his Cheltenham sights on the less exalted Grand Annual Handicap.

This latest success, with Valdez running to a mark of 153, confirms that the Arkle remains a realistic target. And, since the gelding is unbeaten over fences and hails from a yard that has been under a cloud, there should be every chance of better things to come.

When last seen two months earlier, Valdez had romped away with a novices' handicap chase at Newbury that proved very difficult to rate, so it is pleasing to reflect that raising the chestnut 17lb for that success to 152+ has not proved to be an overreaction.

Front-running Irish raider Arnaud (up 6lb to 148) maintained his progression with a valiant second on Saturday just ahead of the staying-on Fox Appeal (remains on 152), who appeared to find the drop back to 2m (all his twelve previous jump starts had been over at least 2m3f) against hi m.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Splashing through the mud

Another abhorrent week on the weather front wreaked havoc with the National Hunt programme mid-week but the two headline fixtures on Saturday stood firm and made for informative, if at the same time gruelling, viewing.

It was a day where several novices performed with distinction and, led off by Splash of Ginge's surprise success in the valuable Betfair Hurdle, our NH team give their explanation of their updated ratings.

Hatch the way to do it

That Saturday's Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury managed to survive such a turbulent week weather wise at all was a tribute to all concerned at the track, writes David Dickinson.

The fact that the race was run on heavy but holding ground could hardly have been a surprise but in those conditions those who raced close to the pace did seem to be favoured. None more so than the winner, the 33-1 outsider Splash of Ginge, who made much of the running under an enterprising ride from 7lb conditional Ryan Hatch.

With a fleet of well supported horses bearing down on him in the closing stages he maintained the lead he had retaken from Act of Kalanisi early in the straight to gain a hard-fought success.

With both the third, Irish Saint and sixth, Alaivan theoretically well in the form was not straightforward to assess but I ended up using seventh home Chris Pea Green as my benchmark and raised Splash of Ginge 8lb to 142.

With the benefit of hindsight, his Aintree success three outings back was probably the pointer to this showing, for all it was hard to know just what he'd achieved that day with the second and third home yet to run again. For whatever reason, he then ruined his chance by failing to jump fluently at Ascot the next time behind Irving and then came unstuck over a longer trip at Warwick.

On the juvenile front, the Cheltenham prospects are bubbling up nicely. Broughton confirmed the promise shown at Doncaster when taking the listed John Smith's Scottish Triumph Trial at Musselburgh, Harristown looks a likely contender for the Fred Winter after taking Huntingdon's 32Red Hurdle (formerly the Chatteris Fen) and last but certainly not least, Calipto backed up Paul Nicholls' assertion that he's the yard's best juvenile by impressively defying a 10lb penalty and is now rated 149. He is the joint top-rated British juvenile, alongside Le Rocher.

That's the spirit

Dodging Bullets did his Racing Post Arkle prospects no harm despite suffering the first chase defeat of his career in the Grade 2 Betfair Cash Out Game Spirit Chase at soggy Newbury on Saturday, writes John de Moraville.

In fact, in my book, whilst narrowly outgunned by the more experienced Module in a thrilling duel, the six-year-old notched the best performance of his career so far.

Taking third-placed Raya Star (149) as the marker, I have raised Dodging Bullets, who was conceding that rival 5lb, by 1lb to 156.

Module (157), receiving 3lb from the runner-up, was best in at the weights and did not need to run to his mark to win, thereby gaining rich consolation for his last-strides defeat by Somersby in Exeter's Haldon Gold Cup back in November.

Over at Warwick, Raya Star's stable companion Balder Succes (151) staked his Arkle claims with a slick-jumping victory in the Grade 2 Star Sports Kingmaker Novices' Chase. His three-and-a-half-length defeat of Brick Red earned him a 6lb rise to a mark of 151, which is a couple of pounds higher than he'd managed over hurdles.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
I enjoyed reading these last winter so will try and keep it updated through the NH season:

BRITISH CHAMPIONS WEEKEND / 21 OCT 14

In a bumper edition every pattern race from QIPCO British Champions Day is discussed at length, while Matthew Tester gives us the rundown on the aperitif of the previous day at Newmarket, including his take on the 2015 prospects of the headline acts.
Despite the doom merchants forecasting unpredictable results on the ground at Ascot on Saturday for QIPCO British Champions Day, the reality was that all of the winners were perfectly justifiable and hardly surprising, says BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith.
Forgotten Rules started at 3/1 and was unbeaten going into the race.
Gordon Lord Byron started at 5/1 and was BHA top rated.
Madame Chiang started at 12/1 having improved her rating by 9lbs following a promising run in the Prix Vermeille where she was only beaten by just over three lengths.
Charm Spirit started at 5/1 and was BHA top rated.
Noble Mission started at 7/1 and was likely to be given a soft lead on ground he loves, had already won two Group 1 races in Europe this season and had not been out of the first two on six previous runs this year.
Bronze Angel started at 20/ 1 amazingly having won the Cambridgeshire (again) on his last run.

I was responsible for assessing two of the races, the first one being the QIPCO Fillies and Mares Stakes. There were a number of fairly obvious marker horses that I used when coming up with my performance figures for the race. I had Chicquita running to 109 on her previous run and she was around a pound superior in the race to Seal Of Approval who was rated 108. It brought Madame Chiang out on 113 which is a pound lower than last year’s winner recorded. Silk Sari went into the race on 108 but had won her last two and was clearly progressive so I had no issue raising her to 110.
I had hoped that my top rated filly Hadaatha would win but she ran disappointingly. She pulled, the race came only 13 days after her best ever run at Longchamp and the sectional times provided by Turftrax showed me that she was the fastest in three of the furlongs before the field reached the four furlong pole. On a first go at 12 furlongs she was always going to find the last half mile exhausting.

I have been telling my International colleagues that Noble Mission was a reformed horse this year but on our interactive system I was 2lbs higher than everyone else in the world when he won at Sandown and Chester in the spring. I knew he would run well on Saturday but I didn’t think he could win. I used Free Eagle who I had on 119 when he won in Ireland as my marker which brought Al Kazeem out on 121 just a little lower than his best before he was retired, with Noble Mission on 122, the same as Twice Over recorded in the race in 2009.
What happened to Cirrus Des Aigles? It was the perfect ground and trip but a look at the sectionals might explain it. Cirrus Des Aigles was the fastest horse from 6 to 5 furlongs, from 5 to 4 furlongs and from 4 to 3 furlongs. He was sixth fastest in each of the three furlongs splits from there to the finish. Either by accident or design, by over confidence or a loss of concentration the jockey asked too much of him too early in the race. By contrast James Doyle set a very even pace. Not once from 7 furlongs out did he set the fastest fraction on Noble Mission. He got the horse into a lovely rhythm and got a breather into him from the 6 to the 5 pole where he was the slowest horse in the field.
Overall the QIPCO Champion Stakes was the fastest relative time of the day as you would hope from the best race, the winner was the horse who, despite leading, never put up the fastest sectional in the final 7 furlongs. Congratulations Noble Mission and J.Doyle!

As far as historic comparisons are concerned it is hard to call Saturday’s QIPCO Queen Elizabeth II Stakes a vintage renewal but it would be churlish to crab the winner Charm Spirit, who pretty much claimed the runner-up position behind Kingman in the three-year-old miler pecking order with this third Group 1 strike, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill. He is not a horse to win his races by wide margins – his last four successes have been gained by an aggregate total of just over a length-and-a-half – and as such he might be slightly better than any form based rating placed on him.
My French counterpart had him rated 122 after his narrow success over Toronado and Night of Thunder in the Moulin last month and I am happy to have him running to that level at Ascot; as such, with Olivier Peslier weighing in 1lb overweight at 9-02 on the winner, my figures for the race are Charm Spirit at 122, runner-up Night of Thunder at 120+, Toormore at 119, Tullius 118 and Captain Cat 113. Historically this is on the low side for the winner, being on a par with Poet’s Voice’s success in 2010 although, perversely, third paced Toormore’s figure of 119 has only been bettered twice since 2002 by horses finishing in that position. Given the passage Night of Thunder had throughout the race I suspect he’s slightly better than his performance figure of 120. His 2000 Guineas form could hardly have worked out any better and given that he works out a pound inferior to Charm Spirit in the Moulin, I have moved his BHA mark up 1lb to 121 to reflect that relativity between the two. Toormore (122 as a two-year-old) has run his best race of the season and will go from 113 to 119, whilst Tullius (117 going in) is credited with a lifetime best on his preferred ground and will be moved to 118.

With last year’s winner, and current leading European sprinter Slade Power not around to defend his crown, this year’s running of the 6f Group 2 QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes was the last realistic opportunity for anyone to usurp him at the top of the sprinting pile, writes Stewart Copeland. Heading the likely contenders were the first two from in the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock, G Force and Gordon Lord Byron respectively, with Tropics the next best on the ratings having chased Slade Power home in Newmarket’s Darley July Cup. Looking at the race beforehand there seemed little obvious early speed with the exception of the Irish challenger An Saighdiur, so it wasn’t a surprise to see him seize the initiative and make the running. After a modest first furlong, with several racing keenly, the aforementioned soon tacked over to the stand rail from his low draw to inject some pace. That gave those drawn high something to aim at, which looked a clear advantage on the day over those towards the centre.

Of the three main contenders above, G Force was marooned in the centre furthest away from the action and could never land a blow, a run which is best ignored given the circumstances. His connections also cited he was unsuited by the going, which was a question mark against him beforehand. This performance shouldn’t detract from what has been an excellent season for him and his rating remains at 118, which makes him the highest three-year-old sprinter in Europe.

Instead the spoils on the day went to his old foe Gordon Lord Byron, gaining a much deserved success after some excellent efforts in defeat of late. He came through with a strong late run to win going away by a length-and-a-quarter from Tropics, with the proven mudlark Jack Dexter a neck further back in third. Looking at the race as a whole, given the somewhat muddling nature of the contest – several horses rated in the 90s finished a bit close for comfort as well – there’s no reason to think the winner had to improve on his previous form to succeed. As a result of that Slade Power’s position at the top of the European sprinting tree remains intact with a current published rating of 120 in Ireland, with the next two in the pecking order amongst the older sprinters being Sole Power and Gordon Lord Byron, both at 118. An Irish one-two-three no less!

QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup-winner Forgotten Rules has had only a short career so far but it has already been a varied one, writes Stephen Hindle.
Following an impressive debut success in a bumper at Punchestown he went straight to the Flat for a minor event at Galway in August and confirmed that promise with an eight-length victory over a rival who’d previously been placed in listed company. Even so, it was a fair step up to then contest a Group 2 at Ascot on QIPCO British Champions Day, and not only did Forgotten Rules take it in his stride he scored with a bit of authority, despite hanging, which connections put down to inexperience. While holes can be picked in the form with the Gold Cup winners Leading Light and Estimate clearly nowhere near their best it has a solid enough look. A length-and three-quarters away in second was Biographer, who went in rated only 103 but has been 110 in the past, and as he finished only a neck in front of Pallasator, who is already rated 110, that seemed a good starting point. Whiplash Willie, two lengths further back in fourth, would further set the level as he is rated 108.
I’d normally call a length-and-three-quarters 2lb at 2m but felt Forgotten Rules won with at least a bit in hand and so I called it 3lb, which means he has posted a figure of 113 – slightly higher than the average of the past five renewals (run prior to 2011 at Newmarket and a Group 3 prior to this year). For those finishing outside the first four the heavy ground could be used as a viable excuse, but that shouldn’t take anything away from what was a high-level performance from the winner. Nor should he be written off as a mudlark. He won his bumper by 13 lengths on good ground, and connections believe he will be effective on anything other than very firm going.

Soft ground played its part in Future Champions Day, writes Matthew Tester. The favourites were beaten every time and the winners of the Dewhurst and Middle Park were returned at 10/1 and 22/1 respectively. They were tough races to rate. There will be energetic debate in London when the European Handicappers get together to decide on the final classification. That will be announced in January and these are just my preliminary figures.

Belardo won the Dewhurst. At Doncaster he had finished only fourth to Estidhkaar who was giving him 3lb that day. At levels, though, somehow this was a different story. Estidhkaar was slowly away and never seemed to be on an even keel. Belardo came out of a pocket and quickened away up the hill for a comfortable win. My rating for him is 119, up to scratch for the race; but seven of the last 10 winners of the Dewhurst had rated higher.

There have been quite a few Dewhurst winners at 10/1 or bigger in my time with the team – Parish Hall, Beethoven, Intense Focus, Milk It Mick and Tout Seul. And the truth is that, although they all turned out okay I do not believe that any of them ever ran to a higher rating in the rest of their careers. Belardo had already been beaten in two Group races before the Dewhurst. Maybe the soft ground was what brought the improvement. If so then he could be a real player in a soft-ground Guineas. No two-year-old is rated higher than him at the moment and he could be the one to defy history. After all, none of those others were our champion two-year-old and, at the moment, Belardo looks like he could be.

Charming Thought had never run in a Group or even a listed race before. He had been brought along quietly in maiden and novice company. He went into the Middle Park with a rating of 98, very high for a novice winner, and came out with a rating of 118 – higher than the last three winners of the Middle Park.
He beat by a nose Ivawood, a multiple Group winner who was odds on to add the Middle Park to his tally. The next three horses behind Ivawood were all proven Group horses with ratings of 110 or more before the race, so it has a pretty solid feel.

I can only remember one recent longshot winning the Middle Park, the 25/1 Crusade. His future career was cut short and we never got to see what he might have achieved. I was surprised by the win of Charming Thought. But the more I thought about how he had been brought on, the more comfortable I felt with the idea that he really could be that good. On pedigree there is a fair chance that he will stay 1m next year so I hope to see him line up for the Guineas too.

Next weekend sees the Racing Post Trophy and the one after the Breeders Cup. After those we would normally know who the champion two-year-old is. This year I suspect that you are going to have to wait until January.
 
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JUMPING FOR JOY / 04 NOV 14

Our original plan to quantify the various successes of Team GB at the Breeders’ Cup needed something of a rethink after our raiding party drew a blank – although Toast of New York produced a colossal effort for Jamie Osborne when going so close in the Classic (and increased his rating from 116 to 124) – but fortunately there was also a host of high-class National Hunt racing over the weekend and our Jumps team have stepped in to bail us out.

FLAMIN NORAH
Last weekend saw the return of several potential Cheltenham Gold Cup horses on both sides of the Irish Sea, writesChris Nash.

The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase was the chosen race for the seasonal return of the third and fourth from last year’s Gold Cup (The Giant Bolster and Silviniaco Conti) although neither managed to match their efforts of last March. The 3m1f contest was run at only an even tempo (the later three-runner course and distance novice was more strongly run and resulted in only a slightly slower time) and five of the seven had every chance down the straight.

Victory went to Menorah, who enjoys decent underfoot conditions and also probably appreciated the speed test at the trip. He gave 5lb and a four-lengths beating to Taquin du Seuil, with Double Ross just a short-head behind in third. Silviniaco Conti was beaten a shade over eight lengths in fifth with The Giant Bolster showing little enthusiasm in the contest and trailing home last of the seven beaten almost 50 lengths.

Menorah arrived with a rating of 165 and had been as high as 169 in the past and I was happy this performance lay somewhere in between those parameters. Taquin du Seuil arrived here rated 159 having won the JLT Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last year and his 9lb beating by Menorah has the winner running to 168. That has Double Ross running to a career-best 160 and Medermit close to his pre-race 156 at 153 in fourth. Silviniaco Conti returned a figure of 160 and The Giant Bolster managed only 123.
As mentioned earlier the emphasis here was on speed not stamina and several of these were returning from breaks so drawing hard and fast conclusions for the season ahead is somewhat perilous. Suffice to say that the Philip Hobbs horses are in great form and Menorah will be a worthy participant in all the big 2m4f to 3m chases coming up. And as both Taquin du Seuil and Double Ross were novices last year they are likely to have the scope to progress further this season.

The big race in Ireland on Saturday was the Grade 1 JNWine.com Chase which saw the return of last season’s Gold Cup runner-up On His Own; although after a series of fiddly jumping mistakes he trailed home a well-beaten sixth. The race went to the highly-progressive Road To Riches who had comfortably won the Galway Plate off a mark of 149 in July before being beaten just a head by Sizing Europe last time.

Road To Riches had won over 3m in his hurdling career but this was his first try at the trip chasing. He was ridden like stamina was not going to be an issue and so it proved as he made every yard of the running and jumped well to come home 11 lengths clear of the Paul Nicholls-trained Rocky Creek. There was a further 18 lengths back to Boston Bob in third and elongated distances between the remaining finishers.

Assessing the worth of the form of any race when the participants finish at intervals is never easy and this time I settled on basing the level around the consistent runner-up. A line through his pre-race mark of 156 has Road To Riches running to 167 which equates to a career best. Needless to say all the other participants ran some way below their best form but the majority were having their first run of the season. We are likely to next see the winner in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Finally it would be remiss of me not to give a quick mention to Wishfull Thinking who won the Betfred Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree on the previous Saturday. He lined up off a mark of 162 and streaked away to win by 12 lengths. It was a terrific weight carrying performance in a competitive handicap and resulted in his rating being raised to 169. This is a new career-high mark which is a fine achievement for any 11-year-old and it’s fair to assume that this performance will place him amongst the leading 2m4f chasers come the end of season classifications.

COLES TO WETHERBY
Small fields are not a new phenomenon in Jump racing, writes Martin Greenwood. It seems that every recent season has been blighted by certain races with only a small turnout.
Northern Jump trainers constantly tell me their various theories on why this is and they include not enough good quality races, too many good quality races, southern runners scaring them off, and last but not least the handicappers reaction ‘if’ any of their runners finish too close to the ‘good thing from down South’. Despite my best efforts to assure them that I and the team aren’t robotic in our assessments when it comes to listed and graded races they remain unmoved and decide to let large pots of prize money go to raiders from other parts of the country while complaining there aren’t any races for them to run in!
Any handicapper worth his salt will only react when he feels it is justifiable, i.e. a thoroughly exposed sort who has appeared to run exceptionally well in a non-handicap will almost certainly be ignored. Conversely, an unexposed progressive type should be viewed differently, because by their very nature the extent of their ability is not yet known.

The Bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby is a good case in point. Shamefully only attracting three runners, needless to say all trained ‘down South’, the front-running Cole Harden put his higher rated opponents to bed, including the odds-on favourite At Fishers Cross who hasn’t won since April 2013 despite running several good races in defeat.
Cole Harden seemed to be treading water around the mid-130s in mid-distance novices last season but a step up to 3m at Aintree showed him in a new light and he was the only one to give the very promising Beat That a race. I raised Cole Harden a mammoth 15lb to 150 for that effort but had no qualms because he was unexposed.

The Wetherby race almost certainly proved another stepping stone, even allowing for the fact that early season fitness often plays a major part in this and other races at this time of year. I was amazed to be told by those who should know better that I would be rating the race around the backmarker At Fishers Cross, a perfect example of a misconception that exists amongst some trainers when it comes to handicapping. The five-year average of the winner of this race is 154, with a high of 158. With the 151-rated Medinas comfortably beaten eight lengths I decided to go 158 for now on Cole Harden with further improvement likely. This compares with the 172 that I would have used if the ludicrous assertion of using At Fishers Cross as the ‘marker’ stood!

LIN’S THE MAN
Please! Never again accuse yours truly of failing to drop a horse that looks to have badly lost his form, writes John de Moraville. Ulck du Lin, one of the best-backed jumpers of the weekend, duly collected Ascot’s Byrne Group Handicap Chase on Saturday having plummeted in the ratings by 19 lb.

It was also at Ascot two winters ago that the Paul Nicholls-trained gelding, then only a four-year-old, gained his previous success. Then, by justifying even-money favouritism and running to a mark of 146, he became a leading contender for the 2013 Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham.

Pulled up at the Festival, he unseated at Newton Abbot next time and underperformed badly last term which ended in defeat at Plumpton in April off 127.
Though disappointing at the time, in retrospect, with his Plumpton conqueror Fair Dilemma progressing to land a Class 2 chase at Stratford, that was a decent enough effort.
And off the same mark on Saturday, Ulck du Lin conclusively showed he had turned the corner by resolutely refusing to let persistent top-weight Claret Cloak get by him on the Ascot run-in.

In a race that had seemed highly competitive with three 9/2 joint-favourites (including the winner), the pair pulled eight lengths clear of the third, with Ulck du Lin running to a revised mark of 135 while the gallant runner-up registered a career-best 153.
 
OPENING UP / 18 Nov 14

While only the first two days of Cheltenham’s Paddy Power Open Meeting fell into the last racing week there was still plenty to get the teeth into and the first major handicap chase of the season produced a thrilling finish. He’s our take on it…

Quite the Caid
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season and there was a good mixture of old favourites and “new blood” in the race this year, writes Mark Olley.

Despite being only a seven-year-old Johns Spirit falls firmly into the former category, certainly in my eyes. Jonjo O’Neill’s gelding won this race from a rating of 139 last season but was back this time on the lofty figure of 156, which was due to his demolition of several reopposing rivals at Cheltenham last month. He travelled beautifully into the race and when he burst to the front over the last fence I thought he would join the likes of Cyfor Malta and, one of my all-time favourites, Bradbury Star as a dual winner. However, it wasn’t to be as Sam Twiston-Davies coaxed a devastating late run from Caid du Berlais to snatch victory virtually on the line.

With the value of hindsight, and being ultra-critical, Johns Spirit probably went for home a shade too soon, but there is no disgrace in just failing under 11-12 and being beaten by a fast-improving young chaser. That is especially the case when you consider that Caid du Berlais now has a Fred Winter second, a Martin Pipe third and a Paddy Power win from his three visits to Cheltenham.

My new figures are 148 for Caid du Berlais (up 5lb) and 160 for Johns Spirit (up 4lb) and it will be interesting to see which route they now take with Johns Spirit as he has surely earned a try in graded company. He has tackled 3m on several occasions without convincing but is stronger and better than ever at present and his current rating is only 5lb below that of last season’s Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere.

The next three home – Present View, Oscar Whisky and Buywise – are all second-season chasers and they all excelled themselves. I particularly liked the effort of Present View (up 2lb to 146) as he made much of the running and was the only horse to race prominently to still be involved come the finish. He is the flag bearer for Jamie Snowden’s yard and I will be amazed if there aren’t some big races to be won with him.

Buywise also merits a mention as he was beaten little over three lengths into fifth in spite a poor round of jumping. He started 2014 winning a handicap at Ludlow from a rating of 102 and has done nothing but progress since. Hopefully he will have learned from this and could be another exciting prospect.

Summer lovin
There seems a common perception that horses handicapped on their summer form become uncompetitive once the bigger yards come out in force at this time of year, writes David Dickinson.

Recent Saturday handicap hurdles can hardly have reinforced such a view, however, with successes for the John Ferguson-trained Purple Bay (who was put up 16lb for winning the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen) in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and Exitas, who only got his initial mark in July, easily winning a handicap at Sandown the same day.

This weekend it was the turn of another Ferguson-trained horse Chesterfield to follow that path. A winning debut at Worcester and a slightly unfortunate defeat at Market Rasen saw the horse given a mark of 123 at the start of September. He made good use of it on Saturday in the Mallard Pawnbrokers and Family Jewellers Novice Handicap at Cheltenham, winning well and being promoted to a new mark of 130.

The JCB Triumph Hurdle still seems a long way off but the juvenile form is beginning to bed down now and Saturday’s renewal of the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial looked just about up to scratch. Both Hargam and Baraka de Thaix showed considerable promise for the future but both were out-battled by the game Golden Doyen, who made use of his hurdling experience and raised his rating to 138 in the process.

The current state of play with the juveniles does suggest that the French ones currently have the edge, starting hurdling so much earlier as they do. My figures have the four best juveniles in Britain and Ireland rated 138 or 139. I would currently have nine French Juveniles at 140+ were they to be entered here.
 
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