EC1
On a break
I always try and mailign you in every way possible..just so you know :lol:
The thoughts of the handicappers.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
simmo
Senior Jockey
I would disagree with this. Firstly, whilst injury/lack of fitness might be expected to retard his performance - the impression given on the day was that they had not. To hang on to preconceived ideas about his performance which fly in the face of new evidence is surely just wrong.
He may, or may not have improved since his 2011 win, but the fact that his performance, visually, and on paper appears to be fairly identical would point away from that being evident at this stage.
Which is not to say that he can't improve in future.
Dessie's point that it may just be coincidence that they all appear to have run to a similar level as could be expected may be bang on the mark.
In any case, I am glad that we have moved away from "all ratings are frightening and cringeworthy" territory and into more rational debate.
rorydelargy
At the Start
I'm also glad. You seem a nice chap, and I'd hate to annoy you.
For the record, I think David Dickinson is a much-maligned professional who does his best at all times, as well as being notably kind to his mother, and suggestions that he might be "a cretin" are some way wide of the mark. I look forward to having him round for a sweet sherry where I can express such sentiments personally, so we can all move on. He's still wrong about Grandouet, though.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
It was when I saw the word "cretin", that I immediately thought "Mordin".
Another put-away job by Timeform.
Tossers.
Another put-away job by Timeform.
Tossers.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,994
I wouldn't know David Dickinson if he came up and punched me in the coupon but when I was having articles on handicapping published in the old Handicap Book he was kind enough to write to me personally and enclosed a complimentary copy of the Raceform book on how they compile ratings.
I'm not saying I won't hear a word against him but that was a kind and much appreciated gesture.
I'm not saying I won't hear a word against him but that was a kind and much appreciated gesture.
simmo
Senior Jockey
well said - you're half right. :lol:
EC1
On a break
he's a red faced wig wearing f00ker on telly antiques shows DO...not keen on him mesen
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,994
Ah, that would explain why the book was cheap as chips.
EC1
On a break
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Tough to call pecking order for Gold Cup
Two corking finishes to the big 3m Grade 1 chases this week but the pecking order among the potential Gold Cup horses still seems a little unclear, writes Phil Smith.
I had Long Run performing to 170 at Kempton with Captain Chris on 169 improving from 162. However, I have left Long Run's rating on 172 as without two serious mistakes in the latter part of the race, I believe he would have won more easily.
Grands Crus travelled like the best horse in the race for most of the way but seemed not to get home, perhaps because of the heavy ground. He remains on 157 but looks capable of better in more optimum conditions.
Like Long Run, Silviniaco Conti is also on 172 from his win last month at Haydock. In the Betfair Chase I had Long Run performing to 168 when again he was let down by his jumping. I am sure when he puts it all together he is capable of better.
Tidal Bay put up the joint-best performance of his career (171) when winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. I had him on 171 after the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury earlier in the month. He is the link between the best British and Irish form. This puts First Lieutenant on 170, a step up from his third at Newbury. I have Flemenstar on 169 replicating his win in the John Durkan at Punchestown. The other big improver was Sir Des Champs who despite a few errors improved from 162 to 169.
Connections of Bobs Worth (171) must have been delighted with the performances of Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant as they confirmed the solidity of his Newbury win.
The current pecking order of the staying chasers is as follows:
Silviniaco Conti 172
Long Run 172
Bobs Worth 171
Tidal Bay 171
First Lieutenant 170
Captain Chris 169
Flemenstar 169
Sir Des Champs 169
It is too close to call and one or more of them have to make at least 3lb to 4lb improvement to be a Gold Cup winner but which one?
Just one final point about the disparaging remark Francis Casey made about the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham. Last year Riverside Theatre needed to run to 170 to win it. In my book Flemenstar, for all his potential, has yet to achieve that level! Since the Ryanair became a Grade 1 five years ago the average winning performance has been 168. Last year Synchronised performed to exactly 168 when winning the Gold Cup. The Ryanair is a top-quality race nowadays and will take some winning come March.
CHAMPION HURDLE MID-TERM REPORT
Last season Kempton's WilliamHill.com Christmas Hurdle proved a key (if misleading) piece in the Champion Hurdle puzzle as the second and third from Kempton went on to fight out the finish of the Cheltenham showpiece, writes Dave Dickinson.
Going into this season's renewal none of the participants were rated in the 160s but the race still proved an informative one, although hardly run at an end-to-end gallop. The speed Darlan showed in the home straight was most impressive and he now looks a genuine contender come the big day.
I have rated the race through the fifth Cinders And Ashes, who sadly doesn't yet seem to be progressing from his novice season. This means rises for the first three. Dodging Bullets goes up 6lb to 156 and is now the top-rated five-year-old, with Countrywide Flame's Fighting Fifth win having been dropped 3lb.
Raya Star goes up 4lb to 159, which seems far from unreasonable given that he beat the 157-rated Brampour at level weights on his most recent start.
The main rise is for the winner, Darlan. I have taken account of the ease with which he scored and have called the four-and-a-half-length margin 7lb. As a consequence, Darlan's rating goes up 15lb to 166, the same figure recorded by Binocular in success a year ago - thus further strengthening Nicky Henderson's impressive Champion Hurdle hand. It is entirely possible that Binocular, Grandouet and Darlan could be joined on the big day by the yard's Oscar Whisky if the current monsoon continues into March.
With Zarkandar, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby all performing creditably in December the final piece of 2012 action came in Ireland where Hurricane Fly won impressively. He had a seemingly clear run to Champion Hurdle success two years ago but last season managed only one late January appearance prior to Cheltenham. This year things seem to be going much better and it would be unwise to think that last year proved beyond doubt that his Champion Hurdle winning days are over.
There is one other Irish trained horse that might be worth keeping an eye on, if the rain ever relents and were the ground to come up decent in March. Rebel Fitz flopped at Tipperary in October but prior to that he had caught the eye giving 19lb and a comfortable beating to subsequent Ladbroke scorer Cause Of Causes in the Galway Hurdle. Granted, his bare form leaves him quite a few pounds short of the top but the thing that catches my eye is his career record when the word heavy is not mentioned in the going description - 112121111. So should good ground prevail for the Festival he might yet prove an interesting outsider in what still looks a pretty open year.
SIMON SAYS
Sprinter Sacre by spreadeagling his rivals at last season's Cheltenham and Aintree festivals looked a once-in-a-lifetime novice chaser, writes John de Moraville.
But, just a year on, Nicky Henderson finds himself in the almost unbelievable position of training another shooting star bidding to follow a similar path to springtime glory.
Simonsig, who was rated 11lb superior to Sprinter Sacre over hurdles, has made an exemplary start to his chasing career with effortless Grade 2 victories at Ascot and Kempton either side of Christmas.
The latter came in last week's Wayward Lad, the race in which a year ago his stable companion made spectacularly short work of a below-par Peddlers Cross. Making every yard of the running in an uncompetitive renewal, Simonsig strolled home in the style expected of a 1-6 favourite.
A time comparison with Sanctuaire (167), winner later that afternoon of the Desert Orchid Chase, suggests the grey ran to around 158 - that's 2lb below his hurdle mark but, such was the ease of victory, there are plenty of pluses attached to that figure and it is not surprising that he is all the rage for the Arkle.
GOOD FOR THE SEUIL
The staying novice division is shaping up nicely - I mentioned the exciting trio of Coneygree (currently 150), Pont Alexandre (would be 148) and Don Cossack (would be a minimum of 144) in my last article a couple of blogs ago, writes Martin Greenwood.
Now add to that mix Taquin Du Seuil who justified favouritism in the Betfred Mobile Sports Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury in impressive fashion last Saturday.
Beaten only by the decent My Tent Or Yours from his three previous hurdle starts, Taquin Du Seuil looks a good stayer in the making and waltzed clear having been waited with to beat the 140-rated Easter Day by nine lengths. Standards for this particular race over the last five years suggest somewhere in the region of the high 140s so it was a relatively easy decision to put Taquin Du Seuil to a new rating to 149, only 1lb behind Coneygree, who, if anything, looks an even stouter stayer. The staying novice races at both Cheltenham and Aintree already look races to savour!
This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
Two corking finishes to the big 3m Grade 1 chases this week but the pecking order among the potential Gold Cup horses still seems a little unclear, writes Phil Smith.
I had Long Run performing to 170 at Kempton with Captain Chris on 169 improving from 162. However, I have left Long Run's rating on 172 as without two serious mistakes in the latter part of the race, I believe he would have won more easily.
Grands Crus travelled like the best horse in the race for most of the way but seemed not to get home, perhaps because of the heavy ground. He remains on 157 but looks capable of better in more optimum conditions.
Like Long Run, Silviniaco Conti is also on 172 from his win last month at Haydock. In the Betfair Chase I had Long Run performing to 168 when again he was let down by his jumping. I am sure when he puts it all together he is capable of better.
Tidal Bay put up the joint-best performance of his career (171) when winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. I had him on 171 after the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury earlier in the month. He is the link between the best British and Irish form. This puts First Lieutenant on 170, a step up from his third at Newbury. I have Flemenstar on 169 replicating his win in the John Durkan at Punchestown. The other big improver was Sir Des Champs who despite a few errors improved from 162 to 169.
Connections of Bobs Worth (171) must have been delighted with the performances of Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant as they confirmed the solidity of his Newbury win.
The current pecking order of the staying chasers is as follows:
Silviniaco Conti 172
Long Run 172
Bobs Worth 171
Tidal Bay 171
First Lieutenant 170
Captain Chris 169
Flemenstar 169
Sir Des Champs 169
It is too close to call and one or more of them have to make at least 3lb to 4lb improvement to be a Gold Cup winner but which one?
Just one final point about the disparaging remark Francis Casey made about the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham. Last year Riverside Theatre needed to run to 170 to win it. In my book Flemenstar, for all his potential, has yet to achieve that level! Since the Ryanair became a Grade 1 five years ago the average winning performance has been 168. Last year Synchronised performed to exactly 168 when winning the Gold Cup. The Ryanair is a top-quality race nowadays and will take some winning come March.
CHAMPION HURDLE MID-TERM REPORT
Last season Kempton's WilliamHill.com Christmas Hurdle proved a key (if misleading) piece in the Champion Hurdle puzzle as the second and third from Kempton went on to fight out the finish of the Cheltenham showpiece, writes Dave Dickinson.
Going into this season's renewal none of the participants were rated in the 160s but the race still proved an informative one, although hardly run at an end-to-end gallop. The speed Darlan showed in the home straight was most impressive and he now looks a genuine contender come the big day.
I have rated the race through the fifth Cinders And Ashes, who sadly doesn't yet seem to be progressing from his novice season. This means rises for the first three. Dodging Bullets goes up 6lb to 156 and is now the top-rated five-year-old, with Countrywide Flame's Fighting Fifth win having been dropped 3lb.
Raya Star goes up 4lb to 159, which seems far from unreasonable given that he beat the 157-rated Brampour at level weights on his most recent start.
The main rise is for the winner, Darlan. I have taken account of the ease with which he scored and have called the four-and-a-half-length margin 7lb. As a consequence, Darlan's rating goes up 15lb to 166, the same figure recorded by Binocular in success a year ago - thus further strengthening Nicky Henderson's impressive Champion Hurdle hand. It is entirely possible that Binocular, Grandouet and Darlan could be joined on the big day by the yard's Oscar Whisky if the current monsoon continues into March.
With Zarkandar, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby all performing creditably in December the final piece of 2012 action came in Ireland where Hurricane Fly won impressively. He had a seemingly clear run to Champion Hurdle success two years ago but last season managed only one late January appearance prior to Cheltenham. This year things seem to be going much better and it would be unwise to think that last year proved beyond doubt that his Champion Hurdle winning days are over.
There is one other Irish trained horse that might be worth keeping an eye on, if the rain ever relents and were the ground to come up decent in March. Rebel Fitz flopped at Tipperary in October but prior to that he had caught the eye giving 19lb and a comfortable beating to subsequent Ladbroke scorer Cause Of Causes in the Galway Hurdle. Granted, his bare form leaves him quite a few pounds short of the top but the thing that catches my eye is his career record when the word heavy is not mentioned in the going description - 112121111. So should good ground prevail for the Festival he might yet prove an interesting outsider in what still looks a pretty open year.
SIMON SAYS
Sprinter Sacre by spreadeagling his rivals at last season's Cheltenham and Aintree festivals looked a once-in-a-lifetime novice chaser, writes John de Moraville.
But, just a year on, Nicky Henderson finds himself in the almost unbelievable position of training another shooting star bidding to follow a similar path to springtime glory.
Simonsig, who was rated 11lb superior to Sprinter Sacre over hurdles, has made an exemplary start to his chasing career with effortless Grade 2 victories at Ascot and Kempton either side of Christmas.
The latter came in last week's Wayward Lad, the race in which a year ago his stable companion made spectacularly short work of a below-par Peddlers Cross. Making every yard of the running in an uncompetitive renewal, Simonsig strolled home in the style expected of a 1-6 favourite.
A time comparison with Sanctuaire (167), winner later that afternoon of the Desert Orchid Chase, suggests the grey ran to around 158 - that's 2lb below his hurdle mark but, such was the ease of victory, there are plenty of pluses attached to that figure and it is not surprising that he is all the rage for the Arkle.
GOOD FOR THE SEUIL
The staying novice division is shaping up nicely - I mentioned the exciting trio of Coneygree (currently 150), Pont Alexandre (would be 148) and Don Cossack (would be a minimum of 144) in my last article a couple of blogs ago, writes Martin Greenwood.
Now add to that mix Taquin Du Seuil who justified favouritism in the Betfred Mobile Sports Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury in impressive fashion last Saturday.
Beaten only by the decent My Tent Or Yours from his three previous hurdle starts, Taquin Du Seuil looks a good stayer in the making and waltzed clear having been waited with to beat the 140-rated Easter Day by nine lengths. Standards for this particular race over the last five years suggest somewhere in the region of the high 140s so it was a relatively easy decision to put Taquin Du Seuil to a new rating to 149, only 1lb behind Coneygree, who, if anything, looks an even stouter stayer. The staying novice races at both Cheltenham and Aintree already look races to savour!
This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Sir Des Champs has the scope to improve a lot more than 4lb when he gets even more of a trip on ground he will appreciate.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
But SC, BW, FL, Flemenstar and arguably CC (trip) all have a reasonable chance of improving.
I think SDC will need to improve 10lb to win the Gold Cup.
I think SDC will need to improve 10lb to win the Gold Cup.
my figures are:
Bobs Worth (3), 173p FF
Long Run (7), 174 ff
Silviniaco Conti (7), 172p
Sir Des Champs (7), 175+ FF
Tidal Bay (12), 176+x($)ga FF
First Lieutenant (14), 175? FF
Sir Des Champs is the most likely winner
Bobs Worth is number 2 in my ranking
Flemenstar a sure non stayer and almost sure non runner for me
It looks a very good edition
Bobs Worth (3), 173p FF
Long Run (7), 174 ff
Silviniaco Conti (7), 172p
Sir Des Champs (7), 175+ FF
Tidal Bay (12), 176+x($)ga FF
First Lieutenant (14), 175? FF
Sir Des Champs is the most likely winner
Bobs Worth is number 2 in my ranking
Flemenstar a sure non stayer and almost sure non runner for me
It looks a very good edition
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
SC - Not sure he'll appreciate Cheltenham but 9/1 is fair.
BW - Fly in the ointment, huge danger.
FL - Really not sure he'll stay and imo should go Ryanair. Bridesmaid horse.
Flemenstar - Best horse but 3m2 isn't his bag. More a One Man than a Den Man.
CC - No.
SDC I thought was over hyped before the season started but when you watch the Lexus and then the Jewson the difference in his jumping is amazing. A return to a track he loves and on ground he is far more at home on could well bring about that sort of improvement. He got close in the Lexus despite nothing really going right for him. That's a huge sign imo.
SDC trained by a genius. he will be spot on for March, targeted for the Gold Cup.
Silvianaco not sure to like the course
Long Run exposed and maybe regressing, jockey a negative
Catain Chris non stayer
Tidal Bay, not sure runner, ground dependent and at his age open to find at least a pair of improvers to beat him
Silvianaco not sure to like the course
Long Run exposed and maybe regressing, jockey a negative
Catain Chris non stayer
Tidal Bay, not sure runner, ground dependent and at his age open to find at least a pair of improvers to beat him
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,994
This echoes the point I made last week about the prospect of our seeing a moderate (can't recall my exact words) Gold Cup winner. Even that old handicapper Best Mate beat was a 170+ horse.
I called BM a moderate Gold Cup winner and he could hit 178 and might have been able to reach 180 if pushed by the correct circumstances.
I accept you can only beat what runs against you but we really need one of those listed to run up a 175+ performance before March to take the race into proper Grade 1 territory.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,994
This kind of headline irks me.
Don't racing professionals ever research the correct pronunciation of foreign words?
Pitiful attempts such as this at puns fall flat if you paid any attention in first-year French.
I don't imagine even Peter Scudamore would get that wrong (since he tends to get pretty close with 'Auteuil').
EC1
On a break
the strength in depth is there though DO
what if the Lexus was a furlong further?..if it had been ...TB was finishing to such effect he would taken 7 or 8 lengths out of one of those 170 horses imo
TB is potentially a 180 horse..especially over 3m 2f
what is a poor year?..
is it 2 horses both rated 180+..and the rest 155
is it 8/10 horses rated 170 with potential for improvement
i never really know what a poor year is tbh
what if the Lexus was a furlong further?..if it had been ...TB was finishing to such effect he would taken 7 or 8 lengths out of one of those 170 horses imo
TB is potentially a 180 horse..especially over 3m 2f
what is a poor year?..
is it 2 horses both rated 180+..and the rest 155
is it 8/10 horses rated 170 with potential for improvement
i never really know what a poor year is tbh
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,994
It would be great if TB turned out to be a 180+ horse since I backed him at 32 two nights before the Lexus!
The idea of a poor year is largely subjective. If you believe a clutch of horses up to running to 170 is strength in depth then I'm sure plenty will agree with you. It just wouldn't be my idea. Strength in depth for me would probably be a good number of the field rated good enough to win an average renewal; for me that would be the mid-high 170s. I'm always disappointed when the Gold Cup winner earns a figure (from me) of less than 180, in the same way that I'm disappointed when a Derby or Guineas winner earns less than 125.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Auteuil'd you to stop being so fussy about grammar/spelling/puns.
Last edited:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
The man is on form.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,994
Just let me loose on an anagram Enghien...
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Pau Dessie. I Cagnes Sur-Merise my issues with your puns, so long as you promise not to be hurt.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,994
That wouldn't hurt me, not by a Longchampk.