The thoughts of the handicappers.

[h=2]SUPER SILVINIACO / 26 NOV 14[/h]
In something of a rarity the last racing week was bookended by top-class meetings and makes for a blog full of quality performances. We kick off by contextualising an amazing sixth Betfair Chase success for Paul Nicholls in just the 10th running, and via Ascot end up back to the start of the period for the third-day highlight from the Cheltenham’s Open.
SILVINIACO CONTI SHOWS THE VALUE OF CHEEK PIECES AND A PREP RACE

In 2012, Silviniaco Conti ran in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and subsequently won the Betfair Lancashire Chase, writesPhil Smith. Last year Paul Nicholls couldn’t get a prep run into him and he finished only third at Haydock. This year the Charlie Hall was again Silviniaco Conti’s starting point for the season and he repeated his victory in the first Grade 1 chase of the season.


There was a point at which it looked as if Menorah was going to get the better of him for the second time this season, but there was more in Silviniaco Conti’s tank and with the cheek pieces surely a help he pulled away from the last to win by a long-looking two lengths, which I called 3lb.

It would have been churlish to say that this was not at least the equal of Menorah’s best ever performance so I looked back two seasons to the spring of 2013 when he was just beaten by First Lieutenant and then ran a brilliant race at Cheltenham off a mark of 169, when narrowly touched off by Champion Court.

He ended that season on 169 in the Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications. I had another look at the Charlie Hall and felt that his four length victory there could easily have been five lengths, which would have given him another 169 performance. This brought Silviniaco Conti out on 172 which was the performance I gave him when he won this race in 2012.

When I looked at the race average of the winning performance over the last five years it came to 172.4. Whilst performances of 170+ always come under the closest scrutiny at our end of season review I was pretty confident this justifies that figure, particularly as the race was run nearly 14 seconds faster than the very competitive handicap run 35 minutes later.
THE MACHINE

The Grade 2 Coral Ascot Hurdle on Saturday marked the return of Faugheen who was (and still is) the ante-post favourite for the Champion Hurdle in March, writes Chris Nash.

Willie Mullins’ six-year-old was rated 161 after his novice season – a figure which put him firmly in the driving seat for Saturday’s race – and he took the prize in smooth style.

The race was run at just a steady pace and six of the seven-strong field were still bunched turning in but they soon sorted themselves out to the extent that the form looks to make quite a bit of sense.

The winner was never fully extended but still managed to come home three-and-three-quarter lengths clear of Blue Fashion, who was a further five lengths clear of Lac Fontana. The runner-up arrived rated 152 and looks to provide a sensible guide to the form. In giving him 4lb and a near-four-length beating Faugheen returned a figure of 160+. Lac Fontana was generally progressive in his novice season and continued that trend, improving 3lb to 151.

The ease of his victory means that Faugheen is better than the bare figure he recorded but quantifying how much more he is worth is not easy. I’ll be suggesting a figure of 164 to my Irish counterpart, which still places him behind several other Champion Hurdle hopes including Jezki (169), The New One (167) and Hurricane Fly (169). However Faugheen has improved with every run so far and with further progress looking likely he’s clearly a leading contender for the big one in March.
ALL’S WELL WITH AL


Old friends were reunited on Saturday when Ruby Walsh teamed up with Al Ferof for the first time since their Paddy Power Gold Cup victory in November 2012, writes John de Moraville.
And, by outclassing his rivals in Ascot’s Amlin 1965 Chase, the popular grey returned to his best mark of 168 – precisely the figure he achieved in that red-hot Cheltenham handicap two autumns ago.

In last year’s Amlin Al Ferof strolled home in a match. This time he was made to work a bit harder and it was difficult not to be impressed by the way he strode away from Somersby after the final fence.

Whether this was the performance of a potential King George winner though must be open to doubt as both times the nine-year-old has run over 3m (including when third to superior stable-mate Silviniaco Conti in the Kempton showpiece last Christmas) he has been found wanting.

Earlier in the week Uxizandre, a Grade 1 novice winner at Aintree last spring, maintained his steady progression by making all the running in Cheltenham’s Shloer Chase – his first attempt at the minimum trip over fences – notching a career-best rating of 161.

His trainer Alan King already houses a leading contender for the big 2m prizes in Balder Succes (163) but in slick-jumping Uxizandre he has a horse that would not be out of place in either the Queen Mother Champion Chase or the Ryanair.
GREAT RIDE BAGS THE GREATWOOD


Betting for the StanJames.com Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on the last day of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting was dominated by three horses, all of whom looked to have outstanding claims, writes David Dickinson.


The favourite Vaniteux was beginning just his second winter of racing having concluded the first one by failing to justify Barry Geraghty’s faith when he picked him in preference to Josses Hill in the Supreme at the Festival. Would he improve on his return to action? It seemed very likely. Second favourite was the Willie Mullins-trained Clondaw Warrior, raised 40lb on the Flat since his last run over hurdles. Third in was Sandown winner Exitas, officially 9lb well in under a 5lb penalty for a wide-margin win after the weights came out.

A closer study of the race revealed a problem for the whole field, however. There was not a single front runner on show but almost as seriously, there were a good number of the competitors who were going to want to sit last or very close to last.

Predictably, the tape went back and nothing happened. Equally predictably it was the jockey in form, Richard Johnson, who took the initiative on Garde La Victoire. This sizeable chasing type is presumably one of those horses ‘just marking time’ until sent over the larger obstacles. Well, as bonuses go, the Greatwood is a pretty good one.

Just how much of a fluke was his victory? He looks like a horse who will continue to progress although it goes without saying that he will not always get the run of the race in this manner. He followed a wide course coming down the hill, unlike his nearest rival Vaniteux, who gave the inside to no one. Only time will tell whether those tactics helped or hindered the runner-up.

I used the admirably-consistent fifth Pine Creek as my benchmark, putting Garde La Victoire up 9lb to 153. His trainer doesn’t yet see him as a Champion Hurdle contender but his physique suggests his improvement will continue. Given the apparent dearth of top 2m hurdlers outside the care of Willie Mullins another handicap win would have to put him in the picture.

The New One confirmed his place as the top rated British 2m hurdler with a fluent if unspectacular success in the inaugural running of Haydock’s Betfair Price Rush Hurdle. This he was able to achieve without matching his 2013/14 rating of 167.
 
THE ADVANTAGE OF RUNNING YOUR HORSES / 01 Dec 14

I was fascinated by Oliver Sherwood’s comment after the victory of Many Clouds in last Saturday’s 58[SUP]th[/SUP] Hennessy Gold Cup that he was worried that by giving his horse a prep race at Carlisle he had blown his chance of winning the big race. He had won more than £15,000 in that listed intermediate chase – for which his mark rose by 7lb – and I struggled to understand why you would not run for decent money.

Having a prep run has been crucial to a number of horses winning the important races over the last three weeks as the onset of very soft ground has perhaps been a little earlier than usual this year. I looked at all of the 0-140 or better handicaps over the last three weekends and the results were interesting in terms of prep races and what my team had done with the winners.

Charingworth - had finished second and gone up 4 lb before his win at Cheltenham
Bold Henry - had not run
Morito du Berlais - had won and gone up 15lb before his win at Cheltenham
Sam Winner - had not run
Caid du Berlais - had not run
Katkeau - had won and carried a 5lb penalty before winning his listed handicap
Garde la Victoire - had finished third and gone up 4lb before winning the Greatwood
Aubusson – had finished second and gone up 4lb before winning the Fixed Brush
According To Trev - had finished second and gone up 2lb before his Haydock victory
Niceonefrankie - had not run
Leviathan - had finished fourth and was left unchanged
Croco Bay - had finished sixth and been dropped 1lb before his runaway win at Ascot
L’Ami Serge – had not run
Tullyesker Hill – had won and gone up 9lb before his win at Newbury on Friday
No Buts - had finished fourth and had his mark left on 129 before his Newbury win
Royal Regatta - had finished third and had his mark left before Saturday’s win
Silsol - had not run
Many Clouds – had won and gone up 7lb before his Hennessy win
Monetaire – had finished third and gone up 3lb before winning the last race on Saturday
Hey Big Spender – had finished third and dropped 1lb before winning the Rehearsal again

Clearly many more of the above average handicap winners had benefitted from running already this season when faced with the soft/heavy ground we have had this month. Add to this the wins of Medinas, Irving, The New One, Silviniaco Conti, Uxizandre, Golden Doyen and Parlour Games who were all having their second run of the season when winning top grade non handicaps and you can see the advantage of having a prep run this autumn.

It has certainly been no disadvantage for horses to have run in their prep races rather than sitting on the sidelines in fear of what my team might do if they run well. The message is clear, “Get running”.

So what of Many Clouds? I have put him up 9lb for his win which might have been by further if his saddle hadn’t slipped. It still brings him out 1lb behind Houblon des Obeaux (161), who produced the best performance on the day. Merry King moves up 3lb to 141, which should ensure he gets a run in the Crabbie’s Grand National.
Meanwhile don’t give up on Djakadam. I have left him on the 142 that was agreed in the 2013-14 Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification. He ran well for a long way and either blew up having his first run for nearly seven months or didn’t stay the trip. He certainly jumped well for an inexperienced horse until he got tired.

[h=2]TAKING FLIGHT / 02 Dec 14[/h]In another high-profile double header we discuss top-class action from both Newbury’s Hennessy meeting and Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth card. The Hennessy itself is covered in Phil Smith’s Head of Handicapping blog and it’s the hurdles handicappers who pick up the baton for this piece, starting with Newcastle’s seasonal highlight
[h=4]Irving gets back on track[/h]With Hurricane Fly, Jezki, The New One and Faugheen all having run in the last 13 days Newcastle’s StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle afforded an opportunity to other horses to put themselves in the Champion Hurdle picture, writes David Dickinson.

Half a dozen went to post and barring one slight blemish it was Irving’s slick jumping that saw him come out on top. Given those anxious minutes when he lay prone at Wincanton just three weeks ago, this was a very fine effort by the horse and all of those connected with him.

Clearly Irving was on top after the last and I rated the winner through the third Arctic Fire who has shown consistent form, including in the County Hurdle. We always try to use well run handicap form when it is available. That said, for a small field this Fighting Fifth was run at a good pace and is probably reliable in its own right.
I have called the winning margin 3lb and have raised Irving 8lb to 157, which doesn’t as yet put him at the forefront of the Champion picture. The progressive Aurore d’Estruval is up 4lb to 147. Arctic Fire looks consistent at around 150 but it is not hard to think of around half a dozen in his trainer’s care who are more likely to contest the Champion itself than he is.

I don’t feel Sea Lord is quite the force on winter ground that he is in the summer and have dropped him to his last winning mark of 146.

Surely it is always foolish to run against much better horses?
Not in this case. Swaledale Lad’s handicap mark of 130 going in to Saturday was based on chase form. He still has not run better than 125 over hurdles and so I have dropped his mark accordingly. Volcanic Jack I have dropped back to the 83 rating he was on prior to his surprise victory at Cartmel in August. Swaledale Lad in particular, added plenty to the race with the true nature of the pace and both horses have been rewarded with four-figure paydays and drops in the handicap. Their respective trainers are entitled feel this was a worthwhile venture.
[h=4]King for the day[/h]The staying hurdle division pond is murky at present, writes Martin Greenwood.

Following on from At Fishers Cross’s last of three at Wetherby a month ago, long odds-on chance and reigning champion More of That was turned over in Newbury’s Bet365 Long Distance Hurdle.

To my eyes McCoy on More of That never seemed particularly happy and was going nowhere at the business end of the race, and maybe we should read into the fact that the horse was equipped with a tongue tie for the first time.

Allied to that is the fact that his stable is relatively quiet at the minute. It is far too early to write More of That off just yet obviously, and we will hopefully see him at Ascot prior to Christmas.

Cole Harden and Medinas, who occupied the first two places at Wetherby, did likewise here, albeit in opposite positions. This time Cole Harden had to concede 8lb to his rival and, after making the running, had no more to offer when Medinas swooped past him.

Past winners of this race averaged a figure in the mid-160s but I am pretty sure that sort of performance wasn’t on show here, though obviously there is plenty of scope to go much higher. Keeping Cole Harden on 158, I have gone 157 for Medinas which is just about a personal best, though not a million miles from his effort when scoring off 148 in the 2013 Coral Cup at Cheltenham.
 
A progressive second season chaser wins a decent Hennessey and goes up 9lb, while a horse one month shy of his twelfth birthday wins the Rehearsal from one coming eleven and goes up 11lb.

I'd like to hear the handicapper explain that one.
 
STAYING PUT / 31 Dec 14

With Jack Frost’s arrival coming too late to affect the flagship Festive fixtures it proved a major few days in the staying chase division and Silviniaco Conti cemented his place at the top of the tree with his all-the-way win in the feature King George. Phil Smith gives a full round up on the happenings in that sphere whilst the-exciting Faugheen’s progress is also discussed within a couple of sections on the two-milers.

Silviniaco’s start shines brightest

Before the William Hill King George on Boxing Day I told the stewards at Kempton that the only way Silviniaco Conti could get beaten was if they went no pace and it developed into a messy race, writes Phil Smith. Noel Fehily produced the perfect ride to make sure that didn’t happen.

Having gone steadily early, Fehily increased the pace gradually and by the time they went past the winning post on the first circuit they were really travelling. From previous races Fehily knew he had the beating of Dynaste and Cue Card (who both stay 3m) and so it proved. The dangers to my mind were Al Ferof and Champagne Fever as nobody could be sure about their stamina and there was a possibility that they could do him for toe at the end of the race.

With Cue Card injuring himself and neither of the Hobbs horses giving their running one could argue that Silviniaco had little to beat if he made it a stamina test but that is to under-rate Dynaste. With cheekpieces aiding his and the winner’s concentration, I assessed Dynaste as putting up his joint best ever performance of 167, which he achieved when finishing second in the 2013 Betfair Chase at Haydock. This brought the winner out with a performance of 173.

As a result Al Ferof produced a 162 and Champagne Fever, who travelled ominously well until the last three furlongs, performing to a best ever over fences of 161. I think Al Ferof would likely have won the Tingle Creek had he shown up at Sandown as he clearly has bags of speed and it will be fascinating to see if connections go the Ryanair or the Champion Chase route at Cheltenham.

Much more difficult to assess was Coneygree in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. The race fell apart with so many fallers but was it caused by the unrelenting gallop of the winner or the shortcomings of the non-completers? Interestingly the time was only just over four seconds slower than that of Silviniaco Conti’s despite the fact that Coneygree’s jockey spent much of the final furlong waving to the crowd.

The honest answer is I do not know how to rate Coneygree. As a result I have gone midway between the worst winner of the race in recent years Annacotty on 144 and the best winners Dynaste and Long Run who performed to 161. My figure of 153 still keeps Coneygree in handicaps if connections so wish following one more qualifying run. I admit I might be 9lb too high or 9lb too low with him, maybe more so.

My highest quality handicap of the weekend was the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby and I was really impressed with the winner Dolatulo who is now on 148. His performance screamed Crabbie’s Grand National at me, with the second Cape Tribulation (146) looking a more than capable yardstick. I am sure a number of winners will emerge from this race.

What a cracker Emperor’s Choice and Benvolio served up at Chepstow in the Coral Welsh Grand National. The eventual third, Glenquest (131) looked all over the winner when he took up the running just before the last fence but the superior attitude of both Emperor’s Choice (139) and Benvolio (145) saw them overtake him and take the spoils.

If he had met the last few fences a little better I believe the winner might have won a little more comfortably but I am not complaining about a short head after more than 3m5f of racing on heavy ground. The first two look booked for the Crabbie’s Grand National and with soft ground and a low weight the winner would be interesting.

Whilst the Lexus at Leopardstown falls into the next racing week I have already discussed the race with the Irish NH Handicapper Noel O’Brien and it proved fairly straightforward to level. We have Road To Riches replicating his 167 from Down Royal and Sam Winner replicating his 162 from Aintree. As a result On His Own performed to 164, 1lb lower than his Gold Cup effort in March. Amazingly Road To Riches, who had easily the best recent form, was allowed to start at 4/1. It is astonishing how the market is skewed by reputations.

So where does that leave us with reference to the 2015 Gold Cup? Well just as this year Silviniaco Conti looks set to go into the race with the best form, but can he replicate it at Cheltenham? Is he more suited by a flat track? Has he just been unlucky on his previous visits to Prestbury Park? Whatever he does there he would be a fascinating contender in the Crabbie’s Grand National. Now how can I persuade his connections to enter him?

Faugheen to the fore

Faugheen cemented his place at the head of the Champion Hurdle market with a fluent win in the Grade 1 Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day, writes David Dickinson.

Apart from an untidy jump when out on his own at the last, Willie Mullins’ star hurdled with fluency and was never in danger. A final rating is down to my Irish colleagues but he must have run to something in the region of the 170 figure usually required to win the big one at Cheltenham in March. On 161, the second highest rated horse going into the race was Purple Bay, and having been backed in from 20/1 to almost half those odds he showed his handicap wins at Market Rasen and Wincanton were no flukes. The New One apart, he is looking as likely as anything to mount a home defence at Prestbury.

As for those further down the field, the excellent round of jumping put in from the front by Blue Heron saw his rating rise to 150, whilst Sign of A Victory is now on 149 and Sgt Reckless on 144. Obviously the shame of the race was that Irving failed to give his running.

A month ago the current crop of juveniles looked less than special but the subsequent emergence of Kalkir, Fiscal Focus and Theophilus in Ireland plus Bivouac, Bristol de Mai and most notably Peace And Co in Britain, mean that decision is in need of a total review as it now looks a potentially smart intake. Quite how many more French imports are still to show their hand is anybody’s guess. Are they all avoiding the seemingly outstanding Bonito du Berlais? The ante-post market for the Triumph does seem to suggest that the Arnaud Chaille-Chaille star is unlikely to appear at the Festival, so plying their trade here must appeal.

Valtat looks a picture

Critics of Vibrato Valtat – and he had plenty of them last season – have again been made to eat their words, writes John de Moraville.

Showing that his victory in Sandown’s Henry VIII Novices’ Chase was no flash in the pan, the Paul Nicholls-trained grey underlined his Arkle credentials with a second graded success at Kempton on Saturday.

The Williamhill.com Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, in which Vibrato Valtat (who responds particularly effectively to the urgings of Noel Fehily) outpointed the highly promising Three Kingdoms by half a length, has advertised the talents of two recent Arkle winners in Simonsig and the great Sprinter Sacre.

And, while a notch or two below their exalted levels, the five-year-old ran to the same mark (153) that stable-companion Dodging Bullets achieved in taking this prize a year ago en route to fourth place in the Arkle.

That suggests Vibrato Valtat, with the likely furious gallop expected to suit his hold-up style, could also make the frame at Cheltenham in March.

Balder Succes (162), last season’s top 2m novice chaser, remains without a win this term after failing to overhaul the bold-jumping Special Tiara (160) in Saturday’s Williamhill.com Desert Orchid Chase.

Though the concession of 5lb to the Irish raider proved beyond him, this latest defeat was no disgrace and he shaped as though a return to 2m4f – he took the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase over that trip at Kempton last February – could see him back in the winner’s enclosure.
 
Amazingly Road To Riches, who had easily the best recent form, was allowed to start at 4/1. It is astonishing how the market is skewed by reputations.
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And in the morning he had been 7/1 in one place and 13/2 in a few.
 
I love this paragraph:

So where does that leave us with reference to the 2015 Gold Cup? Well just as this year Silviniaco Conti looks set to go into the race with the best form, but can he replicate it at Cheltenham? Is he more suited by a flat track? Has he just been unlucky on his previous visits to Prestbury Park? Whatever he does there he would be a fascinating contender in the Crabbie’s Grand National. Now how can I persuade his connections to enter him?
Click to expand...


I imagine he will already have been on the phone to Nicholls offering to let him run off 165 if he enters him.
 
[h=2]Super Saturday / 10 Feb 15[/h]
Newbury’s Super Saturday fixture provided a host of major trials on the road to Cheltenham and there are as many questions that remain unanswered as there were puzzles solved, from Sire de Grugy’s premature exit failing to properly test Mr Mole, to the conundrum of whether Coneygree should turn his back on Novice company for the biggest prize of all. Here’s how we think their performances stack up.

CONEYGREE CONVINCES

When Coneygree beat Dell’ Arca in November in the Grade 2 Berkshire Chase at Newbury, my colleague Mark Olley was impressed enough to allocate him a 147 performance figure, the same as his hurdle rating, writes Phil Smith.

It is very rare that a 140 hurdler can replicate that level in its first chase but the time was excellent and both Dell’ Arca (over hurdles) and the third horse Horatio Hornblower subsequently confirmed the form.

After Coneygree’s win in the Kauto Star (Feltham) Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, I wrote that I did not know what rating to give him as the race fell apart, but that the time compared well with that of Silviniaco Conti. I admitted that I might have been 9lb too low. The reality is that I was probably more like a stone too low.

After Saturday’s win in the Betfair Denman Chase I am totally convinced. Both Houblon des Obeaux and Unioniste have solid handicap form against established mature 3m chasers and they were blown away in a stunning time. For me it was the best performance at 3m by a novice since Gloria Victis and
I now have Coneygree on 166, which was the mark allocated to Gloria Victis after he won the Racing Post Chase in February 2000.

Yes, better than Denman as a novice, whose highest rating was 161 after he won the 2007 RSA Chase, which may well be Coneygree’s next race.

So what can beat him if he does go there? Possibly King’s Palace who remains on 156 after a marginally disappointing run at Newbury – he ran about 5lb below his best. He is clearly better than that. He has also run over fences at Cheltenham whereas Coneygree has not.

Apache Stronghold, Valseur Lido, The Young Master and Don Poli, who are all over 150, make this year’s renewal of the RSA look a potentially vintage one at this stage. Should Coneygree head for the Gold Cup, however, the benchmark is set at 174, courtesy of Silviniaco Conti.

MR’S MANNING UP

Saturday’s Game Spirit Chase lost its principal player when reigning champion two-miler Sire de Grugy, back from his injury-enforced absence, departed at the third fence from home, writes John de Moraville.

It was too far out to gauge how the 172-rated favourite, who had also clouted the previous obstacle, would have fared. But the race did confirm that the quirky but hugely talented winner, Mr Mole, remains firmly on the upgrade.

Despite shying away from the tape and losing ten lengths at the start, this thirteen-length defeat of Castleford Chase winner Upsilon Bleu represents another career-best performance from Mr Mole, promoting him to a new mark of 165.

By adding Newbury’s Grade 2 feature to his victory in last month’s Sandown handicap, Mr Mole was emulating the double achieved by his stable’s former super-star Master Minded seven years ago.

Master Minded (who, incidentally, had earlier unseated in the same graduation chase that Mr Mole won at Exeter in December) went on to annex the 2008 Champion Chase by a blistering nineteen lengths. It’s hard to envisage Saturday’s winner basking in victory at Cheltenham come March 11th but ratings suggest that he has every chance of making the frame.

The top 2m performance of the season so far was recorded by Mr Mole’s much-improved stable-mate Dodging Bullets, whose 171 in Ascot’s Grade 1 Clarence House Chase last month was gained at the expense of the returning 2013 champion Sprinter Sacre (168).

Back from an even longer absence than Sire de Grugy, it would be unfair to expect Sprinter Sacre to ever match his record-breaking achievements (and rating of 188) of two years ago.

But with that Ascot race under his belt, the Henderson star is the bookmakers’ favourite to emulate the mighty Moscow Flyer (2003 and 2005) by regaining the 2m chase crown in four weeks’ time in what promises to be a captivating showdown.

VIOLET LEADS THEM A MERRY DANCE

Explaining all of the vagaries of our wonderful sport to a casual observer can be tricky, but the glorious uncertainty that is so addictive to those of us who love this game was typified by Saturday’s events at Newbury, writes David Dickinson.

No sooner had our most successful ever jockey announced his retirement than his Betfair Hurdle mount Goodwood Mirage pulled like a train and then dumped the 19-time Champion on the turf at the very first flight. Such things might test the resolve of us normal mortals to carry on to the end of the season but that would be to judge AP McCoy by the standards that we would use for others.

With Sire de Grugy having fluffed his lines in the Game Spirit, the Gary Moore team were bound to be feeling a little deflated going into the Betfair Hurdle but Violet Dancer, in cheekpieces first time, probably courtesy of a long odds-on defeat on the all-weather in his preparation run for this, made the best of a standing start to give the yard a third success in the race.

Unlike the Greatwood earlier in the season where Garde La Victoire was able to wait in front as there was no pace in the race; there were any number of possible front runners on offer on Saturday. The guaranteed fast pace materialised but the perceived wisdom that this would help the hold-up horses on tacky ground did not. The clue from the earlier races was probably when Bygones Sovereign was allowed a clear passage at the head of affairs in the 3m handicap hurdle on the card and was never to be seen again.

Establishing a level for this race was not straightforward, the first three having finished some nine lengths in front of the fourth but with legitimate excuses for the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh in my view. Calipto got a far from trouble free passage; Jolly’s Cracked It was last going down the back straight in a race with a prominent racing bias; Arzal was probably hoping to help set the pace but was never quite in a position to do, also almost brought down at the last flight in the back straight, where Forced Family Fun was also impeded. The last-named was still there with a place chance at least, when a serious error two from home saw him briefly on the chase course.

I used Cheltenian to establish the level of rises for the first three, leaving him still with a pull with his Aintree conqueror of last April, Clondaw Kaempfer, by raising him 5lb to 146. That sees the third Activial going up 4lb to 147, a mark he might easily have run to in the Ladbroke but for a crucial mistake at the second last. The winner Violet Dancer goes up 9lb to 141, as most of the way up the home straight he looked like winning by more than the eventual three-length margin.

Some of the training plaudits for the weekend must go to Richard Phillips, whose eleven-year-old Temlett defied a 1,100-day absence to win a Warwick handicap hurdle. However, there is a reason why most handicappers have a string of anoraks hanging up in their hallways. This is the same Temlett who made all in a Cork handicap in March 2011 having not previously run since 2008. He even made a mistake at the third last that day, a feat he repeated on Saturday. He was heavily backed at Cork but was seemingly sent off relatively unconsidered at Warwick.
 
A couple of updates:

Clearing the first Hurdle / 09 Mar 15
Saturday’s Sandown card hosted a couple of major handicap hurdles and both winners are looking to make the headlines once more in even bigger ways in the next few weeks, with Imperial Cup winner Ebony Express now off to Cheltenham in search of a whopping £100,000 bonus. Our team give their thoughts on those races and then Mark Olley follows on with the state of play in the National Hunt Flat Race division as the Champion Bumper approaches.

Express en route to further riches?
The recent good record of novices in the leading 2m handicap hurdles continued as Ebony Express secured a hard fought win from two fellow outsiders in Saturday’s William Hill Imperial Cup at Sandown, writes David Dickinson.

This was a race where many of the well fancied horses failed to handle the conditions and the seemingly strong pace. From a standing start, those to the fore were favoured and there were some unlucky horses in behind. Desert Cry, who finished well past beaten horses from a most unpromising position was just one.
The key point of the race seemed to be leaving the back straight as the first four home took charge and were never caught. Both Thistlecrack and Some Buckle tried hard to get involved from slightly further back and both made very promising handicap debuts.
Rayvin Black forced the pace but stuck on splendidly when headed by the winner and was still coming back for more at the line. Just as in 2014, the Richard Lee trained Gassin Golf made the frame. Despite numerous good performances, he astonishingly remains a maiden.
The tightness of the finish limits my reassessments and I have left Gassin Golf in 0-135s by raising his mark 3lb. Fourth home was the hugely promising Camping Ground under top weight, in just his second run since coming over from France. He established himself as a more-than-decent chaser when scoring over 2m4f at Warwick on his British debut but his performance here over a shorter trip was at least as encouraging

Ebony Express goes up 6lb and is now a candidate for a £100,000 bonus should he win a race at this week’s Festival for his enthusiastic syndicate. Even with a penalty however, he is not certain to get a run in either the County Hurdle or the Martin Pipe, such is the competitive nature of just getting a run in Festival handicaps.
As for the week’s Grade 1s, you will hardly be surprised to learn that Douvan, Faugheen and Peace And Co have put in the highest rated performances this season in their respective races.

Look at Mee!
Sandown’s Grade 3 European Breeders’ Fund William Hill “NH” Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final can some years prove one of the strongest handicap hurdles of the entire season, writes Graeme Smith. Recent winners include Albertas Run and the smart-but-fragile Beshabar, and it appears this year’s winner As de Mee is heading for Grade 1 company at Aintree on the back of it.
This wasn’t just another Saturday big-race success for the Paul Nicholls stable but a one-two this time as As de Mee and Great Try drew upwards of seven lengths clear of their 15 rivals at the end of a falsely-run race. Whilst the winning margin was only two lengths at the line the ease with which As de Mee travelled to the front at the second last suggested he was some way in advance of his mark and I considered him worth at least 3lb more than the bare result suggests, raising his rating 11lb to 141. More will be needed to make an impact in top novice company, but if you judge him by what he did on the bridle – acknowledging he then did more than enough off it – it could easily be that further progress will follow.
Great Try was having his first start in a handicap and he responded really well having come under pressure much earlier than this stablemate. He promised to make a bit more of a fist of challenging until jinking left approaching the last, but found plenty all the same. His 7lb rise to 132 gives a further endorsement to the Newbury novice won by Clean Sheet back at Christmas.
Kilgeel Hill was the best of the rest and I considered he was worth 2lb more than the bare result having been slowed by a mistake at the last, raising his mark from to 127 whilst leaving L’Aigle Royal – who finished just a neck behind – on 128.

Several of the ‘big guns’ who failed to fire further back still have the potential to have their day and I’ve been cautious about dropping quite a few of them for these isolated poor runs. One I did note running rather better than his sixth place suggests is Lucy Wadham’s Amidon. He was one of three or four who came off worst from a standing start and was left with a poor platform to launch his effort from in a race that favoured those ridden more prominently.

Bumper Thoughts
Anyone buying a racecard at Cheltenham will notice that there are ratings next to each horse in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, writes Mark Olley. The BHA does not publish official handicap ratings for horses in National Hunt Flat Races, however, we do put performance figures to every horse in each race and these are the figures shown in the racecard.

We keep these figures so that we have an idea of each horse’s ability when it comes to the Bumpers at Cheltenham and Aintree and we have to decide which horses get in those races in the event that they are over-subscribed. As already mentioned these are not official handicap ratings and all these horses will have to qualify for an official rating once they switch to hurdles.

For anyone interested, and who does not have access to the Cheltenham racecard, the figures are listed below and you can see our idea of the best horses in the race.
132 Moon Racer; 131 Bordini; 130 Ghost River, Pylonthepressure, Vigil; 129 Supasundae; 128 Stone Hard, Wait For Me; 126 Au Quart de Tour, Up For Review; 125 General Principle, Yanworth; 124 Bellshill, Jetstream Jack, Modus; 122 Altior, Western Way, Montana Belle; 121 Always Lion, Davy Doubt, Neatly Put; 120 O O Seven, Theo’s Charm; 119 Bay Of Freedom.
119 Livelovelaugh, West Approach; 118 Western Rules, Dueling Banjos, Turcagua, Final Nudge; 117 Justanother Muddle; 114 Sugar Train; 113 Rushvale, Broughtons Rhythm; – Golan Lodge; 110 Lip Service; 101 Robert’s Star; 98 Work du Breteau.

The second group are the horses that are involved in the elimination sequence (Bay of Freedom came out first of the 119-rated horses in the random ballot) and need horses to drop out at the overnight entry stage in order to get a run. They are listed in the order that they will get into the race as places become available, for example Western Rules needs three horses to drop out to get a run. Where horses are on the same figure then we used a random draw to place them in order.

I have been unable to award Golan Lodge a figure as he won a “Newcomers Bumper” at Fairyhouse. This was only the second year that it had been run under those conditions so I could not use race standards to help and any figure would have been a complete guess. It was a tricky process to decide where he should figure in the elimination sequence and I eventually decided on placing him above the three lowest rated horses, as none of them have won a race. It was far from satisfactory but in my opinion the fairest solution.

To give the above figures some perspective here is how they compare with the last three years:
In 2014 Killultagh Vic was top-rated on 136 (finished sixth), while Silver Concorde (winner) was 119.
In 2013 Golantilla (finished third) was top-rated on 131, while Briar Hill (winner) was 118.
In 2012 Moscow Mannon (finished fourth) was top-rated on 137, while Champagne Fever (winner, second top-rated) was 136.
At the bottom end, there is far more strength in depth than previous seasons. In two of the last three years there has not been a maximum field so everyone that wanted a run got one. In 2013, when four horses were eliminated, the highest rated of those four was 110. I will be surprised if any horse rated less than 118 gets a run this year.
 
A couple of updates:

Clearing the first Hurdle / 09 Mar 15
Saturday’s Sandown card hosted a couple of major handicap hurdles and both winners are looking to make the headlines once more in even bigger ways in the next few weeks, with Imperial Cup winner Ebony Express now off to Cheltenham in search of a whopping £100,000 bonus. Our team give their thoughts on those races and then Mark Olley follows on with the state of play in the National Hunt Flat Race division as the Champion Bumper approaches.

Express en route to further riches?
The recent good record of novices in the leading 2m handicap hurdles continued as Ebony Express secured a hard fought win from two fellow outsiders in Saturday’s William Hill Imperial Cup at Sandown, writes David Dickinson.

This was a race where many of the well fancied horses failed to handle the conditions and the seemingly strong pace. From a standing start, those to the fore were favoured and there were some unlucky horses in behind. Desert Cry, who finished well past beaten horses from a most unpromising position was just one.
The key point of the race seemed to be leaving the back straight as the first four home took charge and were never caught. Both Thistlecrack and Some Buckle tried hard to get involved from slightly further back and both made very promising handicap debuts.
Rayvin Black forced the pace but stuck on splendidly when headed by the winner and was still coming back for more at the line. Just as in 2014, the Richard Lee trained Gassin Golf made the frame. Despite numerous good performances, he astonishingly remains a maiden.
The tightness of the finish limits my reassessments and I have left Gassin Golf in 0-135s by raising his mark 3lb. Fourth home was the hugely promising Camping Ground under top weight, in just his second run since coming over from France. He established himself as a more-than-decent chaser when scoring over 2m4f at Warwick on his British debut but his performance here over a shorter trip was at least as encouraging

Ebony Express goes up 6lb and is now a candidate for a £100,000 bonus should he win a race at this week’s Festival for his enthusiastic syndicate. Even with a penalty however, he is not certain to get a run in either the County Hurdle or the Martin Pipe, such is the competitive nature of just getting a run in Festival handicaps.
As for the week’s Grade 1s, you will hardly be surprised to learn that Douvan, Faugheen and Peace And Co have put in the highest rated performances this season in their respective races.

Look at Mee!
Sandown’s Grade 3 European Breeders’ Fund William Hill “NH” Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final can some years prove one of the strongest handicap hurdles of the entire season, writes Graeme Smith. Recent winners include Albertas Run and the smart-but-fragile Beshabar, and it appears this year’s winner As de Mee is heading for Grade 1 company at Aintree on the back of it.
This wasn’t just another Saturday big-race success for the Paul Nicholls stable but a one-two this time as As de Mee and Great Try drew upwards of seven lengths clear of their 15 rivals at the end of a falsely-run race. Whilst the winning margin was only two lengths at the line the ease with which As de Mee travelled to the front at the second last suggested he was some way in advance of his mark and I considered him worth at least 3lb more than the bare result suggests, raising his rating 11lb to 141. More will be needed to make an impact in top novice company, but if you judge him by what he did on the bridle – acknowledging he then did more than enough off it – it could easily be that further progress will follow.
Great Try was having his first start in a handicap and he responded really well having come under pressure much earlier than this stablemate. He promised to make a bit more of a fist of challenging until jinking left approaching the last, but found plenty all the same. His 7lb rise to 132 gives a further endorsement to the Newbury novice won by Clean Sheet back at Christmas.
Kilgeel Hill was the best of the rest and I considered he was worth 2lb more than the bare result having been slowed by a mistake at the last, raising his mark from to 127 whilst leaving L’Aigle Royal – who finished just a neck behind – on 128.

Several of the ‘big guns’ who failed to fire further back still have the potential to have their day and I’ve been cautious about dropping quite a few of them for these isolated poor runs. One I did note running rather better than his sixth place suggests is Lucy Wadham’s Amidon. He was one of three or four who came off worst from a standing start and was left with a poor platform to launch his effort from in a race that favoured those ridden more prominently.

Bumper Thoughts
Anyone buying a racecard at Cheltenham will notice that there are ratings next to each horse in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, writes Mark Olley. The BHA does not publish official handicap ratings for horses in National Hunt Flat Races, however, we do put performance figures to every horse in each race and these are the figures shown in the racecard.

We keep these figures so that we have an idea of each horse’s ability when it comes to the Bumpers at Cheltenham and Aintree and we have to decide which horses get in those races in the event that they are over-subscribed. As already mentioned these are not official handicap ratings and all these horses will have to qualify for an official rating once they switch to hurdles.

For anyone interested, and who does not have access to the Cheltenham racecard, the figures are listed below and you can see our idea of the best horses in the race.
132 Moon Racer; 131 Bordini; 130 Ghost River, Pylonthepressure, Vigil; 129 Supasundae; 128 Stone Hard, Wait For Me; 126 Au Quart de Tour, Up For Review; 125 General Principle, Yanworth; 124 Bellshill, Jetstream Jack, Modus; 122 Altior, Western Way, Montana Belle; 121 Always Lion, Davy Doubt, Neatly Put; 120 O O Seven, Theo’s Charm; 119 Bay Of Freedom.
119 Livelovelaugh, West Approach; 118 Western Rules, Dueling Banjos, Turcagua, Final Nudge; 117 Justanother Muddle; 114 Sugar Train; 113 Rushvale, Broughtons Rhythm; – Golan Lodge; 110 Lip Service; 101 Robert’s Star; 98 Work du Breteau.

The second group are the horses that are involved in the elimination sequence (Bay of Freedom came out first of the 119-rated horses in the random ballot) and need horses to drop out at the overnight entry stage in order to get a run. They are listed in the order that they will get into the race as places become available, for example Western Rules needs three horses to drop out to get a run. Where horses are on the same figure then we used a random draw to place them in order.

I have been unable to award Golan Lodge a figure as he won a “Newcomers Bumper” at Fairyhouse. This was only the second year that it had been run under those conditions so I could not use race standards to help and any figure would have been a complete guess. It was a tricky process to decide where he should figure in the elimination sequence and I eventually decided on placing him above the three lowest rated horses, as none of them have won a race. It was far from satisfactory but in my opinion the fairest solution.

To give the above figures some perspective here is how they compare with the last three years:
In 2014 Killultagh Vic was top-rated on 136 (finished sixth), while Silver Concorde (winner) was 119.
In 2013 Golantilla (finished third) was top-rated on 131, while Briar Hill (winner) was 118.
In 2012 Moscow Mannon (finished fourth) was top-rated on 137, while Champagne Fever (winner, second top-rated) was 136.
At the bottom end, there is far more strength in depth than previous seasons. In two of the last three years there has not been a maximum field so everyone that wanted a run got one. In 2013, when four horses were eliminated, the highest rated of those four was 110. I will be surprised if any horse rated less than 118 gets a run this year.
 
Passing the crown – Vautour to Coneygree / 17 Mar 15
BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith speaks about the sensational Novice Chase performances withnessed at Cheltenham last week:

“In February 2000, Gloria Victis won the Racing Post Chase by a very easy 10 lengths off a rating of 151. It was only his fifth chase and at the end of the season in the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification he was allocated a figure of 166. This remained the highest rated performance by a Novice over any distance for over a decade.

“However in the 2012 Arkle, Sprinter Sacre attained a mark of 169 by his comfortable seven length win over Cue Card and a small but very select field on only his fourth ever chase, making him the highest rated Novice this century. From there Sprinter Sacre went on to post a level of 188 the following season, second only to Kauto Star (190) since 2000.

Surprisingly Sprinter Sacre’s record Novice rating only lasted three years as Vautour’s romp in the JLT Golden Miller Chase on Thursday 12 March has been assessed at 171 by my colleague Mark Olley. Vautour was the easiest of all of the Mullins victories this week and looks a fantastic prospect for next season when he has to take on the older horses, probably over further.

“Amazingly Vautour was only “King for a Day” as just over 24 hours later, Coneygree posted a remarkable mark of 172 when winning the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup making HIM the highest rated Novice chaser over any distance this century. As in his previous wins, Coneygree’s time was particularly quick and he never saw another horse.

“There were some raised eyebrows when I assessed him at 166 after his win in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury, making him a higher rated Novice than the great Denman himself. There will be very few observers disagreeing now. Of course, Denman went on to prove himself an all-time great achieving a rating of 182 and winning his second Hennessy Gold Cup off a mark of 174. Coneygree will have to win a first one off 172.”
 
CHAMPIONS EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK / 17 Mar 15

This year’s Cheltenham Festival was awash with Champions’ performances, with pretty much all the novices won by realistic championship contenders for next season. Coneygree and the rest of the staying chase division is discussed in the Head of Handicapping blog but the rest is all put into context right here. Read on…
Faultless Faugheen
The outcome of the Stan James Champion Hurdle answered a question or two but posed a fair few more, writes David Dickinson.

There was always the feeling that Faugheen had shown the best winter form, most notably when winning Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle, but the winter’s red herring surely came from Irving’s defeat of Arctic Fire in Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth. The trainer’s pre-Cheltenham assertion of Arctic Fire’s improvement proved far more accurate than the form book.

So those questions were answered but others were posed. Did Jezki and The New One jeopardise their chances by taking Faugheen on? Was Faugheen allowed too much rope in front or was that just the brilliance of Ruby Walsh? Were Arctic Fire and Hurricane Fly aided by not getting into a dual with the winner? Not an easy race to assess but Arctic Fire has got very close to Hurricane Fly twice before and has now reversed that form. I have both horses currently on 169 which would seem reasonable from a handicapper’s standpoint. Both are now rated above Jezki.

Faugheen’s eventual rating will depend on what the winning distance is considered to be worth when British and Irish handicappers get together in early May. Jumping the last Faugheen looked sure to win by a good deal further than the eventual winning margin of one and a half lengths.

Douvan looked a high-class winner of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He looks a star in the making and a rating in the high 150’s seems guaranteed, whatever next season holds for him. A hurdle campaign would beckon in any other yard but a career in novice chases, leading presumably to the 2016 Arkle, might be taken up given that his yard has just fielded the first three in the Championship race.

On a week when the Mullins yard held sway in many of the hurdle races, Nicky Henderson saddled a wonderful one-two-three in the JCB Triumph Hurdle via Peace And Co, Top Notch and Hargam. In giving a sizeable beating to Devilment and a number of other good rivals, all three showed themselves to be classy in an above-average renewal and all are now rated in the 150’s.

My hand times on the Triumph and the County Hurdle were almost identical and with Wicklow Brave so visually impressive in the latter from the penultimate flight, it seemed reasonable to compare his time from that flight to the line with that of Peace And Co. Not only was Peace And Co the quicker but by quite some margin, over three lengths quicker from the second last to the last and another three lengths quicker on the run-in. To hear Barry Geraghty talk afterwards about the unsuitability of the rain softened ground for his mount was little short of scary. To hear him refer to his mount’s number of gears, certainly seems borne out by the clock.

I’m sure Top Notch will thrive over further but Peace And Co looks the most likely at this stage to trouble the Willie Mullins selected come the main event next March.

Speeding Bullets

For the third successive season we can celebrate a winner of 2m chasing’s Grade 1 Triple Crown of Tingle Creek, Clarence House and Queen Mother Champion Chase, writes John de Moraville.

And Dodging Bullets achieved that considerable feat at Cheltenham last week by comprehensively upstaging his two predecessors, Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy.

Though top of this season’s 2m tree, Dodging Bullets did not have to run up to his best mark to clinch the Betway-sponsored title as both the aforementioned duo failed to fire.

I had the seven-year-old running to 167 last week and have restored gallant runner-up Somersby – appearing at his seventh Festival and 11 years old now – to 164, the same figured achieved by the popular veteran when second to Sire de Grugy 12 months ago.

But back in January, Dodging Bullets had underlined his Cheltenham credentials when posting 171 in winning Ascot’s Clarence House Chase, the race in which runner-up Sprinter Sacre (167) had threatened to rekindle hopes of a return to the glory years. But, sadly, for the latter, it was not to be.

Odds-on Un de Sceaux lived up to his stellar reputation in Tuesday’s Racing Post Arkle Chase with a clever, nimble round of jumping. His 168 for that sparkling all-the-way victory is second in the 2m novices’ department only to Sprinter Sacre’s stunning 169 in 2012 and bookmakers were quick to promote him to favourite for next year’s Champion Chase.

Gods Own (160), by a quirk of the fixture-list still a novice despite his Grade 1 Punchestown victory last May, threatened momentarily before the winner stretched readily away up the hill. Josses Hill (158) justified the high opinion held by connections by finishing a creditable third.

Vautour, King for a day!

The Grade 1 JLT Golden Miller Novices’ Chase was one of the very few races that you get to watch and instantly know you are seeing something very special, writes Mark Olley.

I watch plenty of horses win races easily, but very few when the winner brushes aside high-class rivals the way that Vautour did on Thursday. Apache Stronghold (second) and Valseur Lido (third) are both Grade 1 novice winners, while Irish Saint (fourth) and Ptit Zig (fifth) have both won Grade 2s.

Pre-race ratings had nothing between Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido, both on 155, and they flashed past the line with just a short-head between them, albeit with the Bryan Cooper on Valseur Lido putting up 1lb over-weight. Irish Saint went into the race with a figure of 153 and finished a further three lengths back. The sort of result that makes you think this handicapping game is easy, especially when you factor in that our standards for the race suggest that the placed horses should be in the 151-155 ballpark!

The early pace of the race was far from frenetic and that allowed Vautour to really stamp his authority from three out, where he really put his rivals to the sword. His time from the third last to the line was 53.2 seconds (my hand time) which compares very favourably with that of Uxizandre (55.4 secs) and Darna (54.1 secs). To put some context to the above, Uxizandre set a much faster pace so you would not expect him to maintain it to the line and he was carrying 11-10 compared to Vautour’s 11-4.

As Vautour is trained in Ireland by Willie Mullins his rating is as much the responsibility of Irish Handicapper Noel O’Brien as it is mine, if not more so. However, we were both thinking along the same lines and decided on a figure of 171. This was a really significant rating as it made Vautour the highest rated novice this century and put him 2lb higher than the previous best, Sprinter Sacre.

The crown of highest rated novice was not to last long with him, as eluded to in the headline, as Coneygree posted a higher figure just 24 hours later when lifting the Gold Cup, as explained by Phil Smith in his Head of Handicapping blog. My personal feeling is that long-term Vautour could turn out to be the better horse.

The Grade 1 Ryanair Festival Trophy was won in decisive style by Uxizandre and will almost certainly be most notable for being the last Cheltenham Festival winner of the legendary AP McCoy.

Uxizandre went off hard with a visor on for the first time and turned this into a real stamina test. This was emphasised by runner-up Ma Filleule, who has winning form over 3m, and Don Cossack (third) who has won over 2m7f and also finished second in a Grade 1 3m+ novice. Hidden Cyclone was a fine second in this race last season, but he found this stamina test against him this time round and faded out of it on the run-in.

Uxizandre moves to a new rating of 169 which sits just behind the 172 of Cue Card in 2013 and the 170 of Riverside Theatre in 2012, but above the 168 of Albertas Run in 2011 and 2010 and the 164 of Dynaste of last year.

The key to Alan King’s high-class chaser seems to be front running tactics on drying ground in the spring and I would imagine he will take some catching in the Melling Chase at Aintree.

This is not a wind up!

Wind operations are often game changers, at least in the short term and a very high profile example surfaced at Cheltenham last week, writes Martin Greenwood.

Cole Harden ground the opposition down to land a wide open Ladbrokes World Hurdle and provide trainer and jockey with a virgin Festival winner. There was no obvious superstar in the line-up this year which probably explained the much larger entry and 5/1 the field.

Cole Harden’s previous form, while relatively consistent, looked short of what is normally required to win a World Hurdle but the operation he undertook after his disappointing effort at this track less than two months earlier paid big dividends. After adopting his usual front running tactics, he proved a very tough nut to crack and nothing could land a serious blow, with pre-race top rated Saphir du Rheu (165) coming closest but still finishing just over three lengths behind, while the latter’s stable companion Zarkandar was a similar distance away in third having thrown away any winning chance when blundering at the second last.

My five-year standards suggest somewhere in the mid to high 160s for the winner, and he is now rated 166. Saphir du Rheu hasn’t quite reached his rating this season after a failed chasing career and drops back marginally to 163, while Auteuil specialist Zarkandar remains on 160.

Two other runners to mention are last season’s third, At Fishers Cross, who finished well to claim fourth and record easily his best form (159) of the season albeit below his very best. He still looks hard work however and it’s easier to argue the fifth, Whisper, shaped much better. Like Saphir du Rheu, Whisper was a most progressive hurdler last season and scored over 3m at Aintree. However he had endured a long absence prior to trying chasing in January, and seemed to suggest a combination of the trip on a much stiffer track and possibly lack of absolutely peak condition found him out.

My two novice races provided different tests. The Neptune looked visually steadily run and the field was well bunched though it was identical to the Coral Cup in terms of time. Windsor Park turned the tables convincingly on his Leopardstown 2m2f conqueror Nichols Canyon in what looked a competitive race, at least using pre-race ratings.

Windsor Park was much more positively ridden over the longer trip this time, while Nichols Canyon didn’t force the pace on this occasion and was pretty keen as a result. With British pair Parlour Games (148 pre-race) and Vyta du Roc (147, now 150, would almost certainly have finished second but for a bad sprawl at the last), who fought out the finish of the Challow Hurdle at Newbury, almost certainly running their races again I have rated the winner an above average 153 with the promise of more to come. Nichols Canyon, a top Flat racer, is given another chance to prove his 149.

As is the norm, the Albert Bartlett, over 3f further proved much more a war of attrition on the softer ground come the Friday. It looked a very interesting race going in and though the hot favourite Black Hercules never landed a blow I would imagine the principals are up to standard.

Milsean, another one of five Willie Mullins trained horses, attracted a bit of support at big odds and left his previous form way behind with a brave front running performance. Now rated 149, he saw off everything bar the similarly stout stayer Martello Tower (150) who was one of several who boosted the form of the Leopardstown race over 2m4f at the end of January. The well talked up No More Heroes (also 149) completed an Irish whitewash and he could well have got very close to winning had he not met interference at the last. All this trio will be interesting when chasing comes knocking, and I would imagine they will be taking high rank in the seasons remaining staying novices. Two others worth mentioning are fellow Irish challenger and previous Warwick score Arbre de Vie, who tanked along for the vast majority of the race but couldn’t quite get in a serious challenge, and the best of the British, Value At Risk, who seemed not to get home after a promising move into contention.

Finally a quick word on the handicaps. Both the Coral Cup and Pertemps Final went to unexposed sorts, both of whom will continue to progress. Aux Ptits Soins, two wins from two starts in France, looked a potential blot and he duly obliged but only by a neck in a close finish with two-Irish trained rivals and home-trained favourite Activial. The winning distance disguised the manner in which Aux Ptits Soins put the competitive race to bed however, for he travelled powerfully throughout before a late mistake and then idling. I factored this into his 11lb higher mark (now 150) and he looks well worth a try in non-handicap company before going fencing.

The Pertemps looked very competitive this year and a host of horses could be seen travelling powerfully beginning the turn in, including probable non-stayers Regal Encore (on a stiffer track, who could also be a bridle merchant) and Brother Brian (keen and plenty of use made of him, well worth trying at slightly shorter). Call The Cops shaped very well at Kempton in his first handicap in November and has won both his races since a near four-month absence. He sluiced up off 133 at Doncaster under a fortnight ago after the weights were closed and the 5lb penalty he got for that enabled him to get in this race. I had put the horse up a total of 12lb, a decision described as ‘ridiculous’ by his trainer in the Racing Post that morning. The silence has been deafening!

Power cut

Not only did Willie Mullins land a record-breaking eight successes at the Festival but he also had an able supporting cast who filled places behind his big guns in the Supreme and Champion Hurdle, and that plentiful approach reaped dividends in the OLGB David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle with Glens Melody ensuring the prize still made its way to Closesutton following Annie Power’s last-flight somersault, writes Graeme Smith.

Glens Melody had chased Quevega home in this race last year and didn’t have to advance any more on the improvement she’d already shown this season to make the most of her opportunity, probably idling after the last and credited with an extra 1lb on top of the bare 148 as a result.

Runner-up Polly Peachum would almost certainly have been suited by a stiffer test – she got outpaced initially at the bottom of the hill – and remains rated as Glens Melody’s superior at 155. The next two home, Bitofapuzzle and The Pirate’s Queen, continued their improvement and now rate at 147 and 144 respectively.

So what of Annie Power? She’d clearly have won easily. I clocked her around three and a half lengths up when crashing out. Given she’s still to be asked to hit top speed it’s not hard to imagine her having extended the margin to eight or 10 lengths – which would bring her out around 157. Had the race been more truly run she’d likely have beaten Glens Melody by even further and there must be every chance she’ll reproduce last season’s best of 162 if pushed into doing so.

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap was dominated by the Irish and the first two posted smart performances after they’d each come there tanking. Killultagh Vic was another to endorse the form of Outlander’s Grade 2 at Leopardstown in January and I feel he’s value for a mark of 145 now. Noble Endeavor was conceding him 5lb and now goes to 149.
 
Flat is back / 31 Mar 15

Saturday saw the start of the British Flat Turf season and we were treated to a quality card at home at Doncaster and over at Meydan on World Cup night. Our team give their thoughts on the Lincoln and the Betway Doncaster Mile as well as the best races from Dubai.

[h=4]Angel Gabrial[/h]
The traditional curtain raiser for the turf season had a quality look to it with over 50% of the field (12/22) in this year’s renewal of the Betway Lincoln being rated 100 or more and the bottom rated horses running off 96 – and it was a couple of the former group who battled it out for the £62,250 winner’s prize, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Gabrial has reached to heights of 109 at points in his career but after a relatively modest 2014 campaign (notwithstanding a win at Leicester off 94 on his final start) – largely over longer trips – he showed that there is plenty of life left in this old campaigner when getting up close home off 100 to land the spoils. The fast pace cut out by the appropriately named Lincoln suited him to a tee and, despite being short of room for a stride or two over a furlong out, he stayed on to deny David O’Meara’s French-import Mondialiste by a neck. As a result, I have put Gabrial up 6lb to a new mark of 106 and it will interesting to see if Richard Fahey returns him to pattern/listed company or targets another big handicap such as the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot with him.

Mondialiste is another with pattern-race form to his name, having finished third in the 2013 Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly. Not seen since May last year, he ran off 105 on Saturday and his new mark of 110 takes him back to the sort of level he showed at his best in France – I suspect he will prove up to at least listed/Group 3 class in the months to come.

Talk of listed class brings us neatly to the Betway Doncaster Mile. Andrew Balding’s 118-rated Tullius justified clear top rating in the contest, but only just! In a messy race in which runner-up Glory Awaits dictated a modest pace before kicking for home three furlongs out, Tullius scraped home by half a length, running to 106 – 12lb behind the form he showed on his favoured soft ground when fourth in the QE II at Ascot on Champion’s Day last year.

It is not an easy race to rate with the penalised Glory Awaits appearing to run above his pre-race rating of 107 and, for the time being, I have credited him with returning to his best of 112 – the level he ran to when second to Dawn Approach in the 2013 2000 Guineas. Time may show this performance to flatter him, but it fits in quite neatly with third-placed Sirius Prospect (106) and fourth-placed Penitent (104) at the moment. As ever, I will be keeping an eye on how the form works out with a view to possibly revising my level in the future.

[h=4]Princely sum[/h]The Dubai World Cup took place over 1m2f on Saturday at Meydan in what was its first running on dirt at this venue after the track had initially been laid with Tapeta, writes Chris Nash.

Whilst it may have been an interesting race to watch and it produced a somewhat unbelievable performance from the winner I am of the opinion that it was perhaps not the greatest of Group 1 races in terms of quality and the result certainly poses plenty of questions when it comes to rating it.

Races on the dirt over this trip during the 2015 Carnival have been characterised by really quick early splits – as positions out of the kickback are sought – followed by progressively slower splits with the final two furlongs generally being the slowest of the race. Saturday’s contest followed a similar pattern. Prince Bishop crossed the line first but only after having been at least five lengths detached from the rest and under the whip after just two furlongs.

At that point he was going nowhere but to be fair to him he had done similar in his most recent race and must be a game sort to keep on trying. It is quite likely that he ran the most even paced race of all the runners but it didn’t look to be by design and it must be very rare that a horse in so much trouble early in a Group 1 race can actually capture the prize.

Prince Bishop beat three horses that had been running in the USA most recently and his two-and-three-quarter-length defeat of California Chrome (rated 124 at the end of 2014), with Lea (119 also after 2014) and Candy Boy (115) further back reads like excellent form on paper. A strict interpretation of the result would have him running a figure between 126 and 130 but I cannot believe that he is suddenly capable of that level of form.

The problem I have is that Prince Bishop is eight years old, had run 27 times previously and had never recorded a figure higher than 117 – he ended 2014 rated 116. My current feeling is that a figure in the low-120s is a more realistic assessment, with the next three finishers all below their peak form. I am sure this race will be a source of plenty of discussion when it comes under consideration at the end of year international rating conference.

The supporting card on World Cup night is naturally strong. The 1m4f Sheema Classic run on turf resulted in a one-two for French-trained horses with Dolniya beating Flintshire by two and a quarter lengths in receipt of a 5lb fillies allowance. Their finishing positions mirrored those from Chantilly last time out where both had run in a lower grade conditions race but were a reversal from the 2014 Arc de Triomphe where Flintshire (second) had beaten Dolniya (fifth) by two and a quarter lengths. Flintshire is a consistent horse in top grade races but this form suggests that the year-younger Dolniya might still be improving. They leave the race having recorded similar levels but the 120 figure of Dolniya equates to a career-best for her. The British-trained Sheikhzayedroad (fifth) and Just The Judge (sixth) both ran respectable races and recorded figures close to their best – 113 and 109 respectively.

There was British success earlier on the card when the Tom Dascombe-trained Brown Panther took the Group 2 Dubai World Cup over 2m. He went into the race rated 118, which made him the likeliest winner on the figures and so it proved with a commanding three-and-a-quarter-length success over Star Empire. The runner-up had run to a figure of 110 in the last two renewals of this race (in finishing fifth and third) and at the age of nine it is a little difficult to imagine he is an improver.

The fairest interpretation appears to be to assume that he repeated his 110 performance which has Brown Panther running to a bare figure of 114+, but such was the manner of his victory I remain happy that his pre-race rating of 118 remains a fair indication of his ability.
 
AN AWESOME AINTREE / 14 APR 15

There’s more to Aintree than just the Grand National and whereas Phil Smith’s Head of Handicapping blog covers the showpiece there’s a bumper update here on most of the other top-class action, starting with a former Champion Hurdler who looks back at the height of his powers.

JEZKI’S JUST THE JOB

We were rather spoilt with the quality of performances put up in the two open Grade 1 hurdle races at Aintree, and whilst it’s hard to be dogmatic about the exact level of what Jezki achieved in winning the Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle I’ve credited him with a belated return to his Champion Hurdle-winning best for the time being, writes Graeme Smith.
The race looked in the balance when Arctic Fire crashed out at the last. If anything McCoy was a shade more active on Jezki than Walsh on Arctic Fire, but that’s essentially a difference in their riding styles, and with Arctic Fire having run to 169 when second in the Champion Hurdle I felt it was fair to promote Jezki back to that level – something I was more comfortable doing in the knowledge he’d achieved that rating last season. He had shaped as though the longer trip may well help with a revival when only fourth in this season’s Champion too.

169 is a fair bit higher than the average winner’s rating of 164 from the last five years but the two big guns looked to make for an above-average renewal in any case. Certainly a standard based on pre-race ratings went a good way to backing that figure up. I rated Rock On Ruby three lengths closer than the official margin as he was around five lengths in front of Volnay de Thaix (finished a length and a half behind Rock On Ruby) when hampered by the falling Arctic Fire at the last, and going through his pre-race 160 also backed up Jezki’s figure.

The Grade 1 World Famous Just Eat Mersey Novices’ Hurdles provided Nichols Canyon with the opportunity to redeem for his slightly disappointing third in the Neptune at Cheltenham and he took it with both hands.

He’d raced far too freely at Cheltenham but had earlier beaten the winner Windsor Park over a shorter trip at Leopardstown and pushed himself back above that rival on my figures with a bigger defeat of Parlour Games (148) than Windsor Park had managed. Nichols Canyon took over travelling easily at the second last and, after Walsh had rather waited in front, put an extra three lengths between him and the runner-up from the length-and-a-half margin at the last when finally asked for everything. For that he earned an extra 1lb over the bare four and a half lengths – which I’d say is relatively conservative – and I now have him on 154. Rather like Jezki’s figure, that will obviously have to be finalised in discussions with the Irish Handicapper prior to the publications of the Anglo-Irish Classification at the end of the season.

The other 2m4f Hurdle at Aintree was the ultra-competitive Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap on Friday’s card and there’s every chance one or more of the principals will have gone into many a notebook.

I’ve been really impressed with Theinval on his last two starts and have rated him in advance of the bare form he’s achieved both times. He’d travelled like a horse some way ahead of his mark when landing a well-contested handicap for horses balloted out of Cheltenham last time at Kempton and did so again as he moved on going to the second last. Admittedly, he was out in front of the scrimmaging that affected the second and third among others before they closed on him after the last, but for me he’d done his job by then (also racing into a headwind) and he looks full value for a 7lb rise to 151.

The Saint James and Daneking also came in for an extra 1lb on account of the trouble they met approaching the second last. The former gave a further endorsement to the Fred Winter form following on from All Yours and Starchitect in the Grade 1 juvenile and goes up 6lb to 144 while Daneking will be 5lb higher at 142 should he return to Britain in the near future. The extra the first three were given means the fourth-placed Stonebrook (up 3lb to 130) will get a pull of 4lb, 3lb and 2lb respectively with them despite having finished closer to them than that would suggest – he had the luxury of a clearer run as he stuck to the inner.

Further back in the field I thought Some Buckle did enough to suggest he’ll prove competitive from a mark of 135 another day and he stays put despite finishing only 13th. He has some solid form with the likes of Glingerburn from novices and has shaped with promise on both handicap starts – competitive at the second last here only for his stamina to run dry and compounding things with a very tired mistake at the last.

WHISPER BAR NONE


As I suggested in my Cheltenham blog, Whisper shaped much better than his finishing position at Prestbury Park and duly turned the tables on World Hurdle victor Cole Harden, writes Martin Greenwood.

Whisper flew through the hurdle ranks last season, culminating in a defeat of At Fishers Cross in the Liverpool Hurdle. He looked sure to continue his improvement but training troubles, which meant nine months off the track, followed by an inconspicuous stab at chasing looked to have brought an abrupt halt to his progress. Following that promising run at Cheltenham however, Whisper has climbed the staying hurdle ranks again by posting a career-best effort in winning the Aintree race for a second time.

With Cole Harden adopting his customary front running role, the field was well strung out turning in and only Whisper looked a possible challenger. Taking up the running at the second last, Whisper galloped on relentlessly to score by three and a half lengths with Un Temps Pour Tour (career best 159) a further six lengths back.

The standard of the Aintree race compared to the World Hurdle is usually inferior but on this occasion, and after some re-jigging, I have Whisper’s 167 superior to Cole Harden’s 163. One would imagine the chasing career will be put on hold and Whisper can continue to be a force to be reckoned with in the top staying hurdles, with the return of More of That and promising novices notwithstanding.

The staying novice on the Friday threw up a major surprise in Thistlecrack. With several fancied horses, notably Roi des Francs, disappointing badly, it maybe took less winning than seemed likely beforehand, but Thistlecrack ran out a very impressive winner.

Unraced beyond 2m4f previously, he didn’t look an obvious stayer but he turned the race into a procession and had the measure of Alpha des Obeaux (now 145) when that horse fell at the last. Using the pre-race figures literally it would appear that this performance would count has one of the best of the season but I have tempered my view for now and rated him around the five-year standard, putting him up to 153 (from 135) while accepting the race could be higher. Both the top rated Vyta du Roc and the third Our Kaempfer never landed a blow, but both deserve another chance. The former looked a probable stayer when blundering away second place in the Neptune at Cheltenham, while the latter travelled powerfully upped substantially in class and trip looks a more than useful sort in the making.

TRIUMPH LEADING TO DISASTER

The theory that four weeks between the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals would enable the placed horses from Prestbury to bounce back on Merseyside didn’t go entirely to plan, the Grade 1 Betfred Anniversary Hurdle being a case in point, writes David Dickinson.
The perceived wisdom was that the quicker surface at Aintree would favour the Triumph third Hargam and he started a strongly-backed odds-on favourite, but he ran a lack lustre race and didn’t really give his supporters that much hope in the latter stages. So much so that he failed to confirm the Cheltenham placings with the Triumph fourth Devilment.

The fact that neither won wasn’t the first sign that the Fred Winter might be a stronger race than was thought at the time. At Fairyhouse on Easter Monday the Triumph Hurdle eighth Dicosimo started favourite to beat the Fred Winter tenth Buiseness Sivola. Ruby Walsh had ridden both at Cheltenham and had picked Dicosimo but he could finish only fourth to his Paul Townend-ridden stable companion.

Throughout the meeting the Fred Winter looked strong, with The Saint James and Box Office running solid races in handicaps and All Yours, Bouvreuil and Starchitect all running with credit in Thursday’s Grade 1. This is a hard race to be dogmatic about but it was no surprise to see the runner up Devilment improve on his Triumph form given a better surface and a flatter track.

I rated the race around the performances put up by Bristol de Mai at Chepstow and Sandown, the latter race linked to high-class handicap form via the winner that day Garde La Victoire. Both these races were on considerably softer ground, hence the note of caution.

Similarly, Friday’s Grade 2 was in some ways hard to fathom. What it did contain though was a very fine winning performance from the exciting Cyrus Darius. The-six-year old has come an awfully long way as a hurdler in a very short space of time, having previously looked hugely impressive in minor events at Newcastle and Hexham. Rather than complain about an initial mark of 141, Malcolm Jefferson looked at the shape of the Aintree race and took the brave decision to run. In his post-race interview it sounded as if that decision was swayed by the fact that no fewer than six of the field were rated within 2lb of each other, with only Glingerburn rated considerably higher. The logic of never being afraid of one horse was amply rewarded, as like Hargam, Glingerburn was a long way short of his best.

The tactics on Vago Collonges made this something of a stamina test which further played into the hands of the Hexham winner. In rating Vago Collonges above Friday’s third Qewy but below his Kempton conqueror Days of Heaven, Cyrus Darius, who was ridden out to the line, is promoted to 153.

GRANITE PROVES TOO TOUGH

Henry de Bromhead, a master trainer of 2m chasers, has unearthed another gem in the imposing shape of Sizing Granite, writes John de Moraville.
Benefitting from the absence of Un de Sceaux, Sizing Granite made it four wins from his four completed starts with a compelling performance in Aintree’s Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase.

Emulating stable-mate Special Tiara, who captured Saturday’s Grade 1 prize two years ago, Sizing Granite has shown sustained improvement since switched to fences last November.

Running to a mark of 159 with this latest show of class, the seven-year-old looks ready to slip into the shoes of veteran former-champion Sizing Europe, who has notched a remarkable 22 wins for the de Bromhead yard.

As for this season’s 2m novice chase pecking order, Un de Sceaux, the brilliant Arkle winner, remains out on his own on 168, while God’s Own failed on Saturday to run up to the 160 he achieved when second in last month’s Cheltenham showpiece.

Whereas Sizing Granite always looked to be travelling sweetly, God’s Own jumped less than fluently round the much sharper track at Aintree. Rallying bravely, he did well in the end to again finish runner-up, this time performing to 157.

Both God’s Own’s chase wins – in a Punchestown Grade 1 last May and in Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup – have been achieved right-handed. It will be fascinating to see how he fares at Sandown or back at Punchestown later this spring.

The hugely progressive Traffic Fluide (154) fully vindicated the high opinion of his trainer Gary Moore, stepping up from handicap company with an excellent third place ahead of Court Minstrel, who, before an almighty final-fence blunder, had looked set to run to that same figure.
 
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CLASSIC CLUES / 21 Apr 15

Things started to get serious on the Flat in the latest week with the wraps coming off a number of Classic hopeful at Newmarket’s Craven and Newbury’s Greenham meetings. Not all of them passed their mock exams, and here’s what our team make of them a fortnight before their acid tests.

[h=4]STAKING THEIR CLAIMS[/h]
In a week that always sees the Flat Turf season crank up a notch the best performance from any of the Classic trials undoubtedly came from Muhaarar in the Aon Greenham Stakes, writes Graeme Smith.

Pre-race it was striking just how much depth there was to the field and a historical standard that suggested a winning performance around 115 seemed to undervalue the efforts of the pair that pulled clear – indeed a standard on pre-race ratings suggested a figure more in the region of 124!

I’m not as hung up as some on the fact the track record was lowered, with the assisting tailwind strong enough to have seen it discarded had this been athletics, while the very promising Intilaaq (awarded an opening mark of 97) ran a faster relative time in division one of the 1m maiden anyway. Still, it was mighty impressive to see the Hamdan Al-Maktoum-pair draw upwards of four and a half lengths clear of their rivals and there’s a chance I’ll be assessing the form upwards after the Spring Classics themselves.

For now, last year’s Gimcrack winner Muhaarar moves up 3lb to 117. That puts him level with the third-placed Ivawood, who’d beaten him both times the pair met as juveniles. Estidhkaar has been moved up 1lb to 116 – the highest that could be reasoned for him from his juvenile efforts is 117 and even that level doesn’t look solid. As I say, it may be this initial level proves on the low side but I felt most comfortable with a cautious approach for now with all nine participants returning from absence.

There was very little form to pin the Dubai Duty Free Fred Darling Stakes around, with the pair who fought it out both stepping up markedly from their juvenile efforts. I settled on 106 and 104 for Redstart and Jellicle Ball, which is within the zone of the two methods of historical standards I worked out and also meant the ratings of fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh would line up neatly, working on the proviso I wasn’t going to move the fifth-placed Lacing from a solid-looking 95.

Whilst I’m happy with my level for the ‘body’ of the field at the moment it could easily be that the first two prove themselves better than their current marks, particularly considering both the pace and tailwind meant there was a reasonable emphasis on speed at the 7f trip – these two fillies are bred to excel over further.

So what of last year’s Champion Juvenile filly Tiggy Wiggy? She remains the highest-rated of these on 117 for the time being. It’s anybody’s guess whether she’ll stretch out to 1m – she’ll certainly have to settle better than here – or even prove as effective this year wholesale, but it sounds as though she’ll be allowed to return to her usual trail-blazing tactics when she’s next tried.

Over at Newmarket, it looks as though the CSP European Free Handicap was most significant in bursting the Guineas bubble of Faydhan. There were elements of Home of The Brave’s two-year-old form that suggested he could improve on his figure of 102 and I now have him at 106. It’s clear the field lacked depth though, and I get the impression keeping Home of The Brave on the right path could prove a test of his excellent young trainer’s skill.

Osaila was entitled to win the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes with her pre-race rating of 109 3lb above the average winning mark from the last five years. She did just that without having to quite reproduce that level (ran to 105), though I get the impression she will do another day – overcoming an arguably disadvantageous position under just hands and heels as she went to join battle with New Providence and beginning to go away for stronger pressure when Dettori appeared to mistake the winning post.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Beautiful Romance, who improved from her winning debut to a mark of 101 in third. Her pedigree suggests she’ll be much more at home as she works her way towards middle-distances.

[h=4]PLAYING IT KOOL[/h]
After nine starts as a two-year-old and ending the 2014 campaign with a mark of 113, Kool Kompany dented a couple of reputations when landing the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes at Newmarket on Thursday, although whether he improved on anything he has shown previously is open to question at this point, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

The key to the race is the fact that Richard Hughes was allowed an uncontested lead on the Hannon-trained colt and dictated throughout, setting a modest early gallop before winding it up at the business end. Given he had the run of the race, I have taken the view he has reproduced his 113 from last year, suggesting that runner-up Nafaqa (pre-race 109) has run to 107 and third-placed Moheet (pre-race 90) has performed to 103 – bearing in mind Moheet was held up off a steady pace there may be more to come. Both Nafaqa and White Lake (seventh) were keen enough early on as they dawdled and it would be no surprise if Barry Hill’s colt hadn’t shown quite the same level of form as he did when winning a listed race at Doncaster and runner-up in the Royal Lodge last season – he retains his current rating of 109.

There is an argument that I could have gone 2lb higher on the race but, for the reasons given, I have stayed on the conservative side for the time being. Once the various Guineas have been run around Europe, I will be more than happy to return to the race and re-evaluate if subsequent events suggest I need to.

[h=4]HORN BLOW FEILDEN RIVALS AWAY[/h]
Newmarket’s listed Feilden Stakes has been won impressively by lightly-raced improvers such as True Story and Intello in recent years, and this year’s renewal also looks set to prove a race worth following, writes Adam Barnes.

John Gosden’s Golden Horn impressed many when making a winning debut at Nottingham last autumn and he took this marked step up in class in his stride, ultimately running out a decisive winner from the 106-rated pair Peacock (now 107) and Disegno (unchanged on 106).

This form has a solid look to it and Golden Horn’s rating has now been raised to 111. That looks very unlikely to prove his limit too, impressing with how readily he moved from the rear to lead before showing clear signs of lingering greenness – perfectly understandable on just his second racecourse appearance – in shifting to his left in front, all in all looking just the sort to go on improving as he moves into pattern company. Early reports suggest he’s off to the Dante next.

[h=4]ASTAIRE DANCES HOME[/h]
Even though last week’s main focus on the Flat was rightly on the classic trials, the sprinting world started to step up a gear as well with the first pattern race in Britain in that sphere, namely the Group 3 6f Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting.

The eleven-strong field looked well up to scratch, headed by the 112-rated Music Master, a standing dish in most of the top 6f domestic sprints last season. However the honours on the day went to the Kevin Ryan-trained four-year-old colt Astaire, who was registering his first success since his two-year-old days when he landed the prestigious Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at the same venue.

Soon bowling along at the head of affairs as is his wont, he had the field on the stretch entering the Dip and dug deep to hold off fellow Yorkshire raider Watchable, with Music Master a further length and a quarter back.

In recent years the average winner has been in the region of 109 and Astaire went in to the race rated 110. However given the strength in depth this looks a shade above average, and with both the historical and pre-race standards suggesting at least a figure of 111 for Astaire I eventually settled on that level. That ties in neatly with the pick of his form last year, which included finishing runner-up in the Group 2 6f Duke of York Stakes on the Knavesmire in May.

As for the placed horses, this certainly represents a career best for the largely progressive five-year-old Watchable, who took the transition from top handicaps to pattern events in his stride. Rated 104 going in to the race, he’s been credited with an improved rating of 109. Music Master returned a rating of 106, a respectable first run of the season, particularly given he raced plenty keen enough through the first half of race. He remains on 112 and it’ll be no surprise if all three renew rivalry at York in a few weeks’ time.

[h=4]CHELTENIAN NO DEPUTY[/h]
With the late defection of the Tony Martin-trained I Shot the Sheriff (officially 12lb well in), the Grade 2 QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle had a very open look to it, writes David Dickinson.

The start for this race is on a bend and, given the size of the field, both starters and jockeys deserve considerable praise for getting this fast-run race off at the first time of asking with no obvious hard luck stories at the start. Slick jumping was always going to be an asset in such a contest and serious errors by Irving at the third and Gassin Golf at the fifth didn’t help their chances. Gassin Golf appeared to impede Pearl Castle on landing too.

Winner of the 2011 Cheltenham Festival Bumper, Cheltenian was having only his13th race since when taking Saturday’s race. In handicapping terms, he had paid his dues having been placed in the last two Betfair Hurdles and made the frame at last year’s Aintree meeting, His latest effort when eighth in the County Hurdle came on three shoes!

Ifandbutwhynot moved up to dispute the lead at the third last but made a mistake and it soon became clear this was between Cheltenian and Sign of a Victory. Despite both edging left after the last Cheltenian held on by a neck and moves to a career-high handicap mark of 153, as does the runner-up.

If there was an unlucky loser it was probably the fourth home Handiwork, whose saddle began to slip with a circuit left but under the emerging talent of Sean Bowen, the combination kept going and finished best of all, despite racing from 2lb out of the handicap.
 
WHERE EAGLES SOAR / 06 MAY 15


The first-day highlight of QIPCO Guineas weekend brought a flagship performance from winter-favourite Gleneagles, and our long-standing 1m Handicapper Dominic Gardiner-Hill puts his achievement into context. Gleneagles’ wasn’t the only performance of the week that had connections purring ahead of a Royal Ascot Group 1 too – read on…

IRISH EYES ARE SMILING


The early bragging rights for the new Flat season are certainly with Coolmore after the QIPCO Guineas weekend at Newmarket saw them land both the colts’ and the fillies’ classics, with Gleneagles getting the ball rolling with a convincing success in the 2000 Guineas on Saturday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.
From a ratings perspective the race stacks up quite nicely with five of the next seven home behind the O’Brien colt running to within 3lb of their pre-race ratings at worst. Having discussed the race with Garry O’Gorman, of The Turf Club, I have settled on a figure of 122 for Gleneagles, a rise of 6lb from his two-year-old figure of 116, suggesting his performance is well up to the standard of recent Guineas winners. Only Frankel (130 in 2011) and Dawn Approach (123 in 2013) have registered better winning figures in the previous ten years, whilst his performance is considered the equal of Sea The Stars (2009) and Makfi (2010) when they landed the contest. He also compares favourably with an average winning performance of 121.5 over the previous ten runnings.

Runner-up Territories has improved from his pre-race 114 to 117, whilst Ivawood produced a performance of 115 to fill third – he will retain his two-year-old figure of 117 for the time being.

Big improver of the race was the Mick Channon-trained Bossy Guest. Having his first run beyond 7f he looked to relish the step up to 1m and belied his 50/1 odds with a career best by far, his rating rising by 13lb from 101 to the mark of 114 that I believe he performed to.

Fifth-placed Celestial Path ran right up to his mark of 110, whilst Free Handicap winner Home of The Brave looks to have made marginal improvement on that effort in sixth and go up from 106 to 107.

The horses mentioned earlier as being either the equal or superior of Gleneagles in their Guineas victories went on to prove themselves outstanding performers through their three-year-old campaign; I have little doubt that Gleneagles will do the same and am confident that his end of season rating will be in excess of the 122 he currently sits on – he has certainly laid down a marker for the rest of the season.

I haven’t as yet had a detailed look at Sunday’s QIPCO 1000 Guineas as it falls into the next racing week. Initial impressions are that it may not be the easiest contest to level with any degree of confidence but a figure somewhere in the mid-teens looks a minimum for the winner Legatissimo.

LIMATO EXCELS AGAIN


This season a conscious effort has been made to improve the pattern opportunities for three-year-old sprinters in the first half of the season, with the highlight being the introduction of the 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, writes Stewart Copeland.

Part of that programme has also seen the upgrading of the 6f Merriebelle Stable Pavilion Stakes at Ascot from listed to Group 3 status. In recent years the average winner of the race has been in the region of 105 but this year’s 12-strong renewal attracted no less than eight contenders who had already achieved that level of form. A really encouraging response to the decision to upgrade the race, and hopefully this bodes well for the Commonwealth Cup too.

The main talking point of the race was the eagerly-anticipated return of the Henry Candy-trained unbeaten gelding Limato, twice a listed winner at two and having his first crack at Group company. He didn’t disappoint.

The field spilt into two groups, both racing up the centre, with Limato racing in the smaller far group. Travelling strongly throughout, he took command with an impressive turn of foot over a furlong out and never looked in danger thereafter. Chasing him home was the filly Tendu, who came out best of the near side group, a length and a half behind.

In assessing the race, for now the form has a fairly straightforward look to it. Limato went in to the race rated 115, with Tendu on 107. Factoring in the 3lb sex allowance she received she got at least a 7lb beating from Limato, but given the impressive nature of his success I will maintain their current gap of 8lb. To give further solidity to the form, a further length and a half back in third was the colt Adaay, who replicated the pick of his juvenile form at 106.

Apparently connections are considering another run for Limato before having a crack at the Commonwealth Cup. Wherever that is, it’s something to really look forward to in a season that promises plenty more for him.

LIKE A DREAM


This year’s renewal of the Group 3 Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes didn’t look to be a vintage one beforehand and it remains to be seen if it can prove a platform for sprint success at a higher level, as has often been the case, writes Adam Barnes.

However, we did ultimately see quite a taking winner in the shape of Robert Cowell’s Goldream, who improved another chunk on his progressive 2014 handicap form to score in both nice style and a decent time.

Race standards point to a winning figure in the region of 113-115, and Goldream’s rating now stands at 113 (up from 104). That level fits well with the runner-up Justice Day, who looks to have returned to his best and now sits on 108, though the likes of Stepper Point and Watchable failed to match their best form, with the drop to the minimum trip here not looking to suit the latter.

Goldream will reportedly have the chance to take the next step up the sprinting ladder in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock later this month.
 
COMING INTO BLOOM / 12 MAY 15


The second half of QIPCO Guineas weekend led almost seamlessly into Chester’s glamourous May meeting, and following on from Legatissimo’s taking Classic triumph there were a couple of stayers who also announced themselves in the big time with the possibility of more to come. While we’re looking to the future, the valuable Swinton Hurdle also went the way of a lightly-raced and progressive sort, and here’s what we made of it all…

LEGATISSIMO HITS THE RIGHT NOTE


Whilst the QIPCO 2000 Guineas from the day before was a relatively simple race on which to place a level (within a pound or so) the QIPCO 1000 Guineas last Sunday provided something of a head scratcher and, even after a week to reflect on the result, I cannot be confident the level I’ve gone for will prove to be the final answer, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

First port of call when assessing any race is looking for the horses which provide the most reliable guide to the level, which horses “fit in” best with each other. In the colts’ race Territories (second; pre-race 114), Ivawood (third: 117), Celestial Path (fifth: 110), Home of the Brave (sixth: 106) and Moheet (eighth: 103) all ran to within a maximum of +/- 3lb of their pre-race marks, so it required a minimal amount of thought and tweaking to come up with a figure of 122 for the winner Gleneagles.

Using similar handicapping processes for the fillies’ races presents problems in terms of a realistic level with the first two coming four and a half lengths clear of the rest of the field. Using runner-up Lucida as a benchmark on her pre-race mark of 111 results in a winning performance of 113 for Legatissimo, which given the quality of fillies in the next five places looks on the low side to me – there have been only three winning figures lower than that in the last 10 years.

Whilst she ran a cracking race in finishing third, surely the evidence from this race and the Fred Darling suggests Tiggy Wiggy will be seen to better effect back at 6f so we have to go hunting through the fourth (Malabar – 109) and fifth (Fadhayyil – 108) for more clues. With half a length between them they seem to fit perfectly in relation to each other, but using them would result in Legatissimo having run 122 and Lucida 120 – the best two performances in the race since the turn of the century. Again possible, but surely unlikely!!

In such circumstances, a historical review of past performances in the race can prove useful and provide a peg, even if it’s only a short term fix until more evidence becomes available. Since the turn of the century the best two performances in finishing runner-up in the 1000 Guineas have been the 114s posted by Six Perfections (2003) and Sundrop (2004). I wouldn’t want to place Lucida’s effort above those two so for the time being I have called her their equal. This equates to a winning figure of 116 for Legatissimo, which places her behind Finsceal Beo (119 in 2007) and Russian Rhythm (117 in 2003) – it also makes her the equal of Homecoming Queen’s extraordinary effort in 2012; that sits comfortably with me for the time being.

It is of course early days and with the Irish 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot both looming in the next six weeks more clues will become available by which to measure the true worth of Sunday’s contest – the rubber and the calculator are ready and waiting….!

PARIS RELISHES THE LONGER TRIP


The Betway Chester Cup Handicap posed its usual conundrum with a big field winding its way round Chester’s tight turns, writes Mark Olley.

Buthelezi took them along at a steady early pace, which made it very hard for the “hold-up” horses to work their way into things and it was an advantage to race handily. John Reel, who had worked his way into a prominent position despite his wide draw, took it up with just under a mile to run and really committed for home with four furlongs to go.

Whilst no Irish horse has won the Chester Cup since 1964 the raiding party looked like having the forecast when Zafayan and Quick Jack swept past entering the final furlong but Trip To Paris soon ended that dream as he surged into the lead in the final few strides and won going away.

Trip To Paris had found himself in a pocket on the inside when Quick Jack and Zafayan went for home and got first run on him, but he managed to extricate himself and showed a fine turn of foot to sweep into the lead. The winning margin was three-quarters of a length, but he was value for much more than that and I have him 4lb superior to runner-up Quick Jack.

Trip To Paris’s 95 rating included a 3lb penalty for winning a Ripon handicap a couple of weeks previously. He was moved to 99 for that win so was 4lb well-in here. He now moves up a further 4lb to a new figure of 103 and is an exciting young stayer who should figure strongly in races like the Northumberland Plate before potentially stepping up to graded company.

Quick Jack’s CV becomes more impressive by the day. He has now finished placed in the Cesarewitch, County Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Chester Cup on his last three starts.

The Group 3 Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes was run in testing conditions on Friday and conversely to the Chester Cup the pace was strong. Big Orange and Fattsota duelled for the lead and almost certainly ruined their chances by doing so.

Tac de Boistron (117) was the class act in the field and had to concede a 7lb penalty for his Group 1 win at Longchamp last season. Marco Botti’s gelding loves the mud and when he cruised into the lead with two furlongs to run I thought he had the race sewn up. However, he got a bit weary and couldn’t repel the late challenge of Clever Cookie.

Peter Niven’s seven-year-old was having only his seventh Flat run and is clearly still progressing. He moves up 5lb (from 106 to 111) for this win and reportedly has the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day as his long term target where the ground is more likely to have cut than for the Summer Cup races.

THE ONSET OF WAR


Scottish Champion Hurdle victor Cheltenian made a bold bid to follow up in the new season’s first big handicap, the Grade 3 Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle, but it was his stable companion War Sound who gave Ciaran Gethings a big winner on his first day as a professional, writes David Dickinson.

Fergall and Arzal helped force a decent pace but the suspicion is that they went a little too hard in the back straight as both were fading by the final flight. This resulted in a rapidly changing picture in the home straight, with the last two winners of the race Barizan and Ballyglasheen both finishing to good effect to make the frame again.

The one constant in the straight was the winner who always seemed to hold the aces. The strong pace here seemed to suit the inexperienced War Sound, who has proved more than tricky to get settled on occasions but had few problems on that score this time. This fact was seemingly anticipated by punters, as late supported saw him sent off the clear 6/1 favourite.

He looks the sort who will have some good days ahead of him, most probably over fences, and his new rating of 148 may be just the start of a career rather than the peak of it.
 
THEIR FINAL STANDINGS / 19 MAY 15


The latest National Hunt season could easily go down as one of the greatest in terms of the emergence of talent for the future, with stellar novice performances not only confined to that division but also on the biggest stage of all, and now the dust has settled on the big Spring Festivals we’ve taken the time to publish our end-of-year report. The stayer chasers are covered in Phil Smith’s Head of Handicapping blog, but everything else is right here in a comprehensive bulletin.

MORE MULLINS MAGIC


A complete domination of the 2m hurdle category by the Willie Mullins yard was only prevented by the yard’s lack of strength in the juvenile department, writes David Dickinson.
The yard fielded some decent juveniles notably Petite Parisienne, Kalkir, Dicosimo and Buiseness Sivola but come the Triumph Hurdle it was Nicky Henderson who held all the aces.

In the winner Peace and Co, Top Notch and possibly even the third home Hargam they have the makings of a team that ought to take very high rank next season given a fair wind. Peace And Co’s rating of 157 makes him an above-average winner of the race, behind only Katchit (who won the following season’s Champion Hurdle) and the ill-fated Our Conor since the advent of this Classification.

The one doubt about that Triumph form is the inability of Hargam to frank it at Aintree. I blogged after Cheltenham about just how hard the first three had gone from two out (seven lengths faster than Wicklow Brave in the following County Hurdle) and so for the moment I have taken the view that Hargam had simply failed to recover from what must have been a very hard race.

Faugheen’s undefeated progress towards the Champion Hurdle crown became more and more inevitable as the season wore on but putting a figure on it was somewhat more difficult. Hurricane Fly (166 in 2013-14 but 175 at his peak) and the defending champion Jezki (169 in 2013-14) had some pulsating duels through the winter but at Cheltenham found not only Faugheen in front of them but also the fast-finishing Arctic Fire, who was reversing form with them from earlier on.

In rating Hurricane Fly, Jezki and Arctic Fire on 169, account has been taken of the fact that they have all beaten each other during the season. The rating of Faugheen was the subject of much debate during our Handicappers’ meeting and the decision of 174 gives him credit for his unblemished record and that fact that for the vast majority of the Cheltenham race he travelled like a horse who was more superior than the final margin suggests. Indeed, he extended his margin over Champion runner-up Arctic Fire to eight lengths in a more tactical race at Punchestown.

Historically, it places Hurricane Fly and Istabraq above him at their very peak but he’s above the level of Hurricane Fly’s first Champion Hurdle.

There has to be a suspicion that 169 flatters Arctic Fire but the chance to resolve the matter at Aintree was missed following his last flight fall, when it looked all to play for between him and Jezki.

In the lead up to the Champion Hurdle there were lines of form that suggested Faugheen had an awful lot in hand. His superiority over Purple Bay in the Christmas Hurdle – that horse’s relative superiority over Irving, Irving’s success over Arctic Fire at Newcastle in November and that horse’s relative proximity to Hurricane Fly and Jezki in the Irish trials. I did suggest that at least one of these pieces of form would prove to be a red herring and it turned out to be the defeat of 169-rated Arctic Fire by the 154 rated Irving in the Fighting Fifth.

For all the good novices around in 2014-15, Douvan looked a class apart from the moment he put in the most astonishing Irish debut at Gowran Park in November. He was by no means all out in winning by 12 lengths and that effort looked ever more impressive as the runner-up Sizing John went on to land a Grade 1 and then finish third in the Supreme. His rating of 161, the same as both Faugheen and Jezki in their recent novice seasons, is thoroughly deserved and for all of the riches in the Mullins yard, this one could yet prove to be the best of the lot.

ZKI LIFT


Aintree and Punchestown saved the season for the staying hurdle division, writes Martin Greenwood.

For most part the season seemed strictly second division with horses struggling to post figures above 160, including the then reigning champion stayer More of That, who hopefully will be back on track in 2015-16.

The wind operation given to Cole Harden worked a treat and his battling front-running performance in the World Hurdle briefly put him top of the pile (164), but he was comprehensively put to the sword by Whisper (167), who put an injury prone season behind him, at Aintree.

In turn Whisper was eclipsed by former champion hurdler Jezki (169) who was upped markedly in trips after failing to regain his crown behind Faugheen at the Festival. Firstly he landed the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle, benefitting, but not necessarily because of, Arctic Fire’s capitulation at the final flight. Jezki then proved he stays even further, which looked likely beforehand, by beating another former champ Hurricane Fly a couple of lengths in the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown. Jezki’s rating matches that of More of That the previous year and the former became the first Irish-trained stayer to top the ranks since Limestone Lad in the 1999-2000 season.

With Annie Power, who would have won the mares’ race at Cheltenham, included in the shorter distance list due to her win over 2m2f at Punchestown, the top honours for the fairer sex in the staying division go to stable companion and chief beneficiary of the Cheltenham fall, Glens Melody (153). She was only 142 last season but made tremendous strides in a fast improving category and just touched off Polly Peachum (152).

The Irish also took the staying novice division (the first time both categories have been claimed by the Irish in the same year) with Nichols Canyon earning 155, which made him the first Irish-trained horse to top that class since Mikael d’Haguenet in 2008-09.

The shorter distance and juveniles will quite rightly claim the highest novice ratings but there are several reasons to be optimistic about the staying talent. Nichols Canyon, smart on the Flat, proved his Cheltenham run to be all wrong by comprehensively scoring at Aintree and Punchestown.

Different tactics which resulted in him pulling far too hard scuppered his Cheltenham chance and fellow Irish raider Windsor Park (153) was the chief beneficiary. He was unraced over the jumps after but did win on the Flat in April. Both Nichols Canyon and Windsor Park look very likely to improve again next season.

Best of the British stayers in the novice arena was Aqalim (152) who was a very late developer, storming home in a handicap at Cheltenham’s April fixture and then just failing to give weight to the aforementioned Polly Peachum at Sandown on the last day of the season. Other novices also worth a mention include the fast-improving pair Killultagh Vic and Theinval (who progressed rapidly through handicaps) and big Festival winners Martello Tower and Thistlecrack, while the best novice mare was the domestically trained Bitofapuzzle.

THE DON


The 2m4f chase division, which covers races run between 2m3f and 2m6.5f, has had some strong performances in recent years and this season was no different, writes Mark Olley.
Looking back this century Sprinter Sacre is the standout performer. We rated his Melling Chase win in 2012-13 at 188 and that is 10lb above the next best effort. That happens to be Master Minded who achieved 178 when also winning the Melling Chase in 2010-11. The top three performances this century are rounded off by none other than Kauto Star, who recorded 176 winning the Ascot Chase. A rather stellar trio, I think you’ll agree.

I have mentioned the above to put some context to this year’s Champion, Don Cossack who rated 175 when winning, yes you have guessed it, the Melling Chase at Aintree in April. This is the fourth highest (joint fourth to be precise as Kauto Star also recorded a figure of 175 in 2006-07) figure this century.

This year’s Melling was tricky to rate accurately and, having won by 26 lengths, Don Cossack could have been rated even higher. The reason I didn’t go higher was that the second Cue Card was returning from six months off and Johns Spirit (third) has yet to prove himself outside of top handicap company. Five year race averages for the winner of the Melling suggest a figure of around 173 and I have no problem believing him an above average one.

Don Cossack’s only subsequent run this season was in winning at Punchestown, where he beat Gold Cup runner-up Djakadam and Cue Card again, but this time by “only” 15½ lengths. You will read elsewhere that Phil Smith and Noel O’Brien rated him 175 for that effort and that is the figure I also settled on as I am not certain his Aintree effort was better.

Uxizandre recorded the second highest 2m5f rating. He achieved a figure of 169 when winning the Ryanair at the Cheltenham Festival in breath-taking style under AP McCoy. Alan King’s gelding inflicted the only defeat of the season on Don Cossack, who was hampered two fences from home and lost crucial ground, and is clearly a top-class performer when he is able to dominate.

Al Ferof (winner of the Grade 2 Amlin Chase at Ascot) and the evergreen 13-year-old Sizing Europe (winner of the Grade 2 Champion Chase at Punchestown) were next best with ratings of 165.

The novice division provided a true Champion in Vautour. Noel O’Brien (Head of Handicapping in Ireland) and I agreed a figure of 171 for his demolition of his rivals in the Golden Miller at the Festival. This is the highest figure this century for a novice in the 2m4f category, and for a day until Coneygree (172) won the Gold Cup, of any novice.

Unfortunately we didn’t see Willie Mullins’ gelding again, but the Cheltenham form wasn’t done any harm by the third that day, Valseur Lido, winning the Grade 1 novice at Punchestown.

Clarcam (159) won the Grade 1 Manifesto Chase at Aintree and recorded the second highest novice rating. This was Gordon Elliott’s gelding’s first run over 2m4f and he looks an exciting prospect for next season.

Lower down the list a couple of interesting horses for next season are Irish Saint (152) and Dell’ Arca (145). Irish Saint ran with credit in Grade 1 novices at both Cheltenham and Aintree but was found wanting at that highest level. However, he was still travelling well when belting four out at Cheltenham and possibly found the 3m1f trip too far at Aintree. Paul Nicholls’ gelding could easily be rated higher than 152 on bits of his novice form and looks the type to progress in his second season over fences.

Dell’ Arca only raced twice over fences and as he didn’t win he remains a novice. The second of those efforts was a length-and-a-half defeat by Coneygree in a Grade 2 novice at Newbury, form which doesn’t look too shabby now! David Pipe’s gelding reverted to hurdles and ran with credit in handicap company after that and I can see him developing into a top novice in 2015-16.

SPEEDING BULLET


For the third season in a row the top 2m chaser scooped the Grade 1 treble of Tingle Creek, Clarence House and Queen Mother Champion Chase, writes John de Moraville.
But, although Dodging Bullets proved a revelation and comprehensively upstaged his two predecessors Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy at Cheltenham in March, his end-of-term rating of 171 is the lowest in this category since 2002-03.

That is down to the calibre of opposition as both the two previous champions explicitly failed to reignite their former brilliance winning just one race between them all season. And that was Sire de Grugy’s victory – albeit stylishly under top-weight – in a muddling four-runner Chepstow handicap.

The pair dominated the market for the Queen Mother Chase but Sire de Grugy finished a laboured fourth, running over a stone below his best, while Sprinter Sacre pulled up.

Sprinter at least managed second place in the Clarence House, running Dodging Bullets to three lengths on return from a long absence, and again filled the runner-up spot in Sandown’s Celebration Chase behind progressive Irish raider Special Tiara (168). But, after his string of well-documented training troubles, he now operates at 21lb below his stellar mark (188) of two seasons ago.

Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham was left to account by just over a length for the admirable veteran Somersby, who 12 months previously had bravely succumbed to an on-song Sire de Grugy by almost six times that margin.

The new champion will have plenty on his plate next March with the emergence of the exhilarating Un de Sceaux, in a class of his own among the 2m novices.

The trail-blazing seven-year-old fully lived up to his sky-high reputation by running away with Cheltenham’s Arkle Chase, recording a mark of 168 – a figure bettered in that race only by Sprinter Sacre three years ago.

Who could possibly have guessed after that scintillating performance that by the end of the week two novices would be rated even higher than Un de Sceaux, albeit over longer distances.
 
Staying Chasers must look up to the Don / 19 May 15

Don Cossack won six chases in 2014-2015 including in three Grade 1 contests and as you will have read elsewhere, he is also the champion chaser at two and a half miles. It is quite unusual for a chaser to be the champion in two distance categories and only three other horses have achieved this in the history of the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classifications, which goes back to the end of the last century.

They are Sprinter Sacre in 2012-2013, Moscow Flyer who did it twice in 2003-2004 and again in 2004-2005 and of course Kauto Star who outdid them all in becoming the champion in all three distance categories in 2006-2007.

As well as having ability, Don Cossack is also very tough. He ran seven times during the season. Kauto Star gets close having won on all six of his starts in 2006-2007 including in four Grade 1 contests, while Kicking King (rated 175 like Don Cossack) won five out of the six races he contested in 2004-2005 including victory in four Grade 1’s. However, Florida Pearl who in 2001-2002 ran in seven contests winning 4 of them and the amazing First Gold who astonishingly ran nine times in season 2000-2001 can match Don Cossack’s toughness and consistency.

Don Cossack’s performance figures through one season were, 157, 171, 164, 167, 161, 175 and 175. Historically he is also rated the same as Best Mate whose performances over two seasons were 170, 170, 175, 157, 175 and 170.

It is highly unlikely that Don Cossack will be champion 3 mile chaser next season if he is only capable of a 175 performance as the competition will be tough. Don Poli (163), Saphir du Rheu (163), Road To Riches (168), Djakadam (170) and Vautour (171) will be snapping at his heels and all look to be very progressive.

Hopefully he is also going to come up against Coneygree who is unbeaten as a chaser and ended the season on 172 after his pillar to post victory in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup. Coneygree has only ever contested Pattern Races as a chaser winning first at Newbury where he recorded a 147 performance, thus replicating his hurdle rating. It was on to Kempton next where in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Feltham Stakes he never saw another horse and won by 40 lengths in a very creditable time considering his jockey spent the last half a furlong waving to the crowd.

It was difficult for me to believe the evidence of my own eyes and I gave him a cautious 153 performance, preferring to believe that all of the opposition had under-performed. However after his win at Newbury over the established handicappers, Houblon Des Obeaux and Unioniste, I was a convert and assessed him at 166. There were some eyebrows raised when I stated in my BHA blog in February that he was now rated higher than Denman had been as a novice but all doubts were erased as he put the established staying chasers to the sword with a thrilling front running performance at Cheltenham.

He is now the highest rated novice chaser ever in the Anglo-Irish jumps classifications although amazingly only by a pound from the hugely talented Vautour. His next task is again to out-do Denman who won his first Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup off a mark of 161. Subsequently he won his second off 174. Coneygree still has some improving to do before we can truly say he was the equal of Denman.

Overall it was a terrific season in the three mile chase category. Silviniaco Conti won three Grade 1 contests including a second King George VI Chase, a second Betfair Chase and a second Betfred Chase, yet could only finish joint second on 172. In fourth spot on 170 comes Djakadam who thrashed the field in the always competitive Thyestes Chase off top weight. How did he get beaten in the Hennessy off 142?

Of course the winner of last season’s Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup was Many Clouds who triumphed off a mark of 151. He then completed the un-heard of double by winning the Crabbie’s Grand National off 160 carrying 11st. 9lbs. A lot of rubbish has been written about how you should protect your handicap mark by not running in order to win the Grand National. Many Clouds continued the sequence which shows that all of the winners since I started to handicap the race in 1999 have run at least three times in the season and at least once in the calendar year. Who is to say that next year he might actually carry less weight if some of the classier horses are entered at Aintree.
 
ROYAL DELIGHTS / 23 JUN 15


Royal Ascot served up another five days of top class action, here the BHA Handicappers provide some thoughts on the performances throughout the week.

SOLOW NOT SO SLOW


As is often the case the traditional curtain raiser at Royal Ascot, the Queen Anne, provided one of the most interesting contests of the whole week – unfortunately on this occasion it didn’t quite live up to expectations as the world’s highest rated miler, Hong Kong’s Able Friend (127) failed to do his “stuff”. I have had the good fortune to see Able Friend a number of times at Sha Tin and he is some performer around there but the straight mile at Ascot is a world away from spinning round his own back yard and maybe that contributed to his lacklustre display, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

That left the contest pretty much at the mercy of the highest rated miler in Europe and the French trained Solow (124) duly ran out a workmanlike winner. With the fancied Richard Hannon pair Toormore (fourth, 119) and Night of Thunder (fifth, 121) running below their best, it was left to another French challenger, the filly Esoterique (117) and the lowest rated horse in the race Cougar Mountain (109) to provide the sternest challenge.

I don’t believe Esoterique is any better than a 117, so have her running to that mark suggesting that Solow has performed to 122, which is 2lb below the mark he ran to when winning the Dubai Duty Free in impressive fashion back in March. This line of reasoning has Cougar Mountain running to 119 which as Senior Irish Turf Club Handicapper Garry O’Gorman said to me after the race “I didn’t see that coming!!” – I don’t think any of us did to be truthful. Pushed along for a good deal of the race, he was going nowhere two furlongs out but stayed on to be only beaten a neck for second. He gave the impression a step up to 10 furlongs would suit and maybe the Eclipse might be on his agenda after this.

The other big mile contest on the opening day, the St James’s Palace, also featured a disappointing performance from one of the two main pre-race protagonists. Make Believe (118) had run out a convincing three lengths winner of the French 2000 Guineas and whilst that form left him with 4lb to find with Gleneagles on official ratings, he was still expected to give Aidan O’Brien’s star a run for his money. Having proved difficult to settle early on however he faded to finish last of the five runners, running some 25lb off his Poulains form. This left the race at the mercy of Gleneagles who ran out a comfy two and a half lengths winner but putting a rating on the level is difficult to do with confidence as runner-up Latharnach was only rated 104 pre-race and third placed Consort 109. Having looked at the last 10 year’s performances in the race I have settled on 118+ for Gleneagles (second lowest in last 10 years with only Most Improved’s 116 in 2012 lower), 113 for Latharnach (lowest runner-up in last 10 years) and 112 for Consort (joint lowest third place performance in last 10). Hopefully things will become a little clearer as to the ability of the latter two in particular as the season progresses.

As far as the fillies were concerned, Amazing Maria advertised the training skills of David O’Meara when spring a surprise in the Duke of Cambridge – technically it is possible to have her as high as 116/117 for this performance but I have settled on 115 for the time being. Again, hopefully time will tell us whether she is flattered by this performance.

In the Coronation, where foreign-trained fillies dominated the home contingent by filling the first four places, Ervedya (114) followed up her win in the French 1000 Guineas by swooping late to nail Found (113), with Lucida (112) a staying on third. Given her turn of foot, the winner is likely to prove difficult to beat against her own sex over a mile, whilst there must be a possibility both second and third will be seen to good effect over 10 furlongs if stepped up in trip.

One filly who earned a return to Group company is Osaila who has been raised to 113 following her victory under top weight off a rating of 107 in the Sandringham Handicap – it will be interesting to see if she can reproduce that level when taking on the best fillies at level weights. Runner-up Always Smile (ran off 100) looked an unlucky loser – James Doyle committing her plenty early enough and then drifting badly left inside the final furlong, allowing Osaila to inch her out right on the line. Given that there was little more than a cigarette paper between them and the way the race panned out for her, I have also raised Always Smile 6lb (to 106) and she is surely up to winning a Listed race at least.

DREAMING OF GOLD


The Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes was the featured sprint race of the opening day of the Royal Ascot meeting. Sprinters will often remain in training for several seasons meaning that the Group races are often contested by old adversaries. Tuesday’s race was no exception with the first four from the 2014 renewal returning to do battle. On this occasion Sole Power, the winner in 2013 and 2014, was unable to defend his title, writes Chris Nash.

The race was won by Goldream, who nosed ahead almost on the line to deny Medicean Man by a short-head. Muthmir was a further neck back in third, Pearl Secret was a further half-length back in fourth and the defending champion could manage to finish only fifth beaten just over one and a quarter lengths by the winner.

Goldream arrived rated 111 having won the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket on his 2015 return. Although he is a six-year-old and was having his 31[SUP]st[/SUP] career run his form has been progressive recently and this Group 1 victory is an obvious career best. Medicean Man is a nine-year-old who was having his 59[SUP]th[/SUP] start and arrived rated 108. His proximity somewhat casts a shadow over the form although his performances over the 5f at Ascot have traditionally been amongst his best – he was fourth in this race last year running to a figure of 111. Both the third and fourth had won Group 2 races last time out and arrived rated 112 and 110 respectively. Given that both arrived in decent order they seemingly provide a level for this form. That has the winner recording a figure of 113 and the runner up running to 112. Muthmir and Pearl Secret have run to their marks and Sole Power records a figure of 110 – some way below his pre-race rating of 118 which he ran to when winning in Dubai in March.

This interpretation of the form marks the 2015 race down as being a modest renewal. It is the lowest figure recorded by a winner since Dominica recorded a figure of 111 in winning the 2002 running. The next gathering for these sprinters will likely be either or both of the Group 2 King George Stakes run at the Glorious Goodwood meeting or the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes run at the Ebor meeting at York.

BURATINO IMPRESSES


With one notable exception, the Royal Ascot two-year-old races were well up to the usual standard, writes Matthew Tester.
Buratino has been pencilled in at 113 for winning the Coventry. He had been a surprise package when running away with Epsom’s Woodcote Stakes and he continued to progress on this sixth start. I cannot remember the last time that any horse won the Coventry on their sixth start. And I cannot remember the last Woodcote winner to land the Coventry; so he did something pretty special. I love his attitude and look forward to seeing if he can develop further.

In the Norfolk Stakes I had hoped that stable-mates King Of Rooks and Log Out Island would join battle in the final furlong with one of them the winner. None of us expected them to join battle in the first furlong instead. At the end they had to play second fiddle to Waterloo Bridge. He had shown nothing like this level in four previous starts in Ireland. The winner has been given 104, the only two-year-old race of the week to come out below expectations. King Of Rooks, for his previous win over Buratino in the National Stakes, will be 110 so I still believe that he has the best form of those runners.

On my current figures, Washington DC, stable-mate of Waterloo Bridge, comes out just the better of the two for winning the Windsor Castle (105). This is unusual considering that it was a Listed win against a Group 2 win for Waterloo Bridge but I do expect that to be confirmed by future races.

The fillies Acapulco (110) and Illuminate (108) were above average winners of their races. Acapulco’s win in the Queen Mary is the best since her stable-mate Jealous Again in 2009, both those Wesley Ward winners were noted as distinctly larger and more mature than their opponents. Jealous Again never raced afterwards and I really hope that we see Acapulco again and interestingly Jealous Again has a two-year-old daughter, Queen Of Sicily, in training with Jim Bolger and it will be exciting to see how she gets on this year.

Illuminate won the Albany in very taking style and looks just the sort for the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes later in the season.

COMPLIMENTS TO COMMONWEALTH CUP


This year’s Royal Ascot saw not one, but two races at Group 1 level over 6f, as a result of the welcome innovation of creating the Commonwealth Cup for three-year-old sprinters, writes Stewart Copeland.

Leading up to the meeting, the revamp of early season opportunities for that group has produced some healthy competition and excellent performances, and the inaugural running of this contest looked full of quality and well deserving of its Group 1 status. The performance of the winner more than rubber stamped that view.

Muhaarar went into the race rated 117 on the strength of his win over 7f in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury, the highest in the field, and the main question was whether he would cope with the drop back in trip. He answered that in emphatic style; held up travelling well off the strong pace in the centre before quickening in tremendous style in the last two furlongs to run out a most impressive winner by three and three-quarter lengths from the 115-rated Limato, with the sole Irish challenger Anthem Alexander in third, a further three-quarters of a length behind.

Given the strength in depth of the field he beat, there’s every reason to take a positive view of his performance and in rating him 121, puts him on a par with some of the best European sprint performances we’ve seen on these shores in recent years. In finishing second, Limato returned a rating of 111. However there’s every reason to believe he was better than the bare form on the day, being drawn away from the stronger pace in the centre, but it’s highly unlikely he would have been a match for Muhaarar wherever he’d been drawn. A commendable effort, nevertheless.

Muhaarar looks well suited to a stiff six furlongs, so the July Cup at Newmarket looks an obvious next target. His sire, Oasis Dream, still ranks as the joint highest rated winner of the race this millennium – alongside Mozart on 125 – and no doubt connections will be hoping he emulates his illustrious father in a few weeks’ time.

The following day was the turn of the older horses in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, which boasted a truly international field this year. The race served up an exciting finish with the American challenger, Undrafted, collaring the favourite Brazen Beau close home, currently the highest rated sprinter in Australia, by half a length.

Similar to the Commonwealth Cup, the main pace came down the centre, which Undrafted tracked whilst Brazen Beau did a solo closer to the stands side. The ride on the latter prompted much comment, and whether it cost him a winning chance is difficult to say, though the fact he had nothing to race against for so much of the contest might not have been ideal.

As for assessing the race, there’s every reason to think that this year’s renewal is well up to the standard we’d expect. Both historical and pre-race form standards point to a narrow bracket of 119-120 for the winner, and after much deliberation, I’ve credited him with the latter for now. It’s interesting to note that Undrafted’s best efforts – he was a strong finishing fourth in the July Cup last year – have come on stiff 6f turf tracks, something he’s unlikely to come across in his homeland.

That means Brazen Beau has run to a rating of 119, a couple shy of the 121 he achieved in winning the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington in March, his best effort to date. Chasing them both home, and best of the British challenge was Astaire, who arguably has run his best race since winning the Middle Park as a juvenile. Credited with a rating of 114 that day, I have him running to that level here.

All in all, both were races well worthy of their status, and the possible prospect of the principals from each race taking each other on in the July Cup at Newmarket is something to really look forward to at next month’s meeting.
 
I know the view taken above concerning the Norfolk is shared by many, but are Buick and Dettori really such poor tacticians and such poor judges of pace that they would blast off at an unsustainable pace and set the race up for something else? Does the evidence of the clock support this thesis?
 
Grey said:
I know the view taken above concerning the Norfolk is shared by many, but are Buick and Dettori really such poor tacticians and such poor judges of pace that they would blast off at an unsustainable pace and set the race up for something else? Does the evidence of the clock support this thesis?
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The last 2 furlongs time shows they were finishing slower than they should have been doing at 5f......98.3% of overall race speed..when you would expect 100% to be the norm over this course and distance. They went too hard basically.

Log Out Island comes out as the best horse in the race by 1lb. The winner was positioned in the best place..Moore rode perfect splits.
 
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EC1 said:
The last 2 furlongs time shows they were finishing slower than they should have been doing at 5f......98.3% of overall race speed..when you would expect 100% to be the norm over this course and distance. They went too hard basically.

Log Out Island comes out as the best horse in the race by 1lb. The winner was positioned in the best place..Moore rode perfect splits.
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if you watch the 4.40 at nottingham..you can see what happens to lower class horses when the same thing happens..albeit they may have gone even harder than at Ascot
 
EC1 said:
The last 2 furlongs time shows they were finishing slower than they should have been doing at 5f......98.3% of overall race speed..when you would expect 100% to be the norm over this course and distance. They went too hard basically.

Log Out Island comes out as the best horse in the race by 1lb. The winner was positioned in the best place..Moore rode perfect splits.
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Not many 2-year-olds ran near that 100% during the whole week, mainly because the crazy pace most races were run at.
5th and 6th in the Norfolk ran near the Hannon pair splits.
I don't know the reason, but there is more to it in those bad performances than an over fast pace.
 
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