The thoughts of the handicappers.

Aughex said:
I wouldn't call 2 lengths pure fantasy after he was badly hampered and almost brought to a halt in the most important part of the race when the pace is lifting and you have to recover all the lost ground and momentum. This thread has badly derailed.
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They'd only just jumped the third.......it's hardly a spot where the pace is lifting......c'mon. Agree it's derailed, mind.
 
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we had the TNO hampered discussion loads Aughex..been done to death...it was only the third hurdle if i remember..and he lost very little on the horse immediately in front of him. My view is it was overplayed by someway. TNO is a stayer..who in certain years..might have won a CH..the very poor years imo..none really this century. He isn't and never has been a CH hoss tbh. Trainer obstinance keeps him mopping up the easy lead up 2 milers with all fingers crossed for cheltenham. Should stepped up in trip..might not make so many jumping errors then either
 
Agree with EC1 - and PFN already says that Irving is a World Hurdle horse therefore Old Guard running against those two will tell us nothing.
 
unless he wins by 10+

i understand they not GC hosses..but its margin of victory that counts Digger

obvioulsy at mo Grass looks to probably be on money re OG..couldn't really argue against it..but improvers can surprise...by no means is OG a CH hoss yet.
 
EC, I rather believe all jockeys that analysed that race and said you can't lose 5-10 lengths like TNO did and expect to make them back, especially at what ended up as the fastest CH. As for TNO and Irving their best form is at 2m and thats how any handicapper will judge Old Guard performance against them in February. Irving will never stay past 2 and half miles, he doesn't have enough stamina or class to carry him into that territory, trainer will send him that route as there's no other option, just like Fly and Jezki were sent at the end of last season. (Sorry for the off topic, I won't be replying on this thread anymore)
 
it clearly was not 5-10 lengths..2 max..its clear to anyone's eye...and the early pace wasn't hard..if it had been he would have lost more.....the fast overall time was due mainly to the ground being faster than norm

watch the horse in front of TNO ...dark colours..outside ...draws level with TNO whilst they jump it...then watch the distance behind TNO is after the incident...2 lengths

you don't need to be a jockey to see how much he loses..its clear to see

it was way overplayed
 
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Swore I wouldn't be drawn on this again but heyho.
Clearly TNO lacks a gear but it wasn't just the distance he lost but forward momentum. He clearly would have had to use up more than the bare gap suggests. You simply don't win races of this class with interference like that. Unless you are on an Istabraq.
 
Just a couple of days after Barters Hill enhanced his Albert Bartlett claims in such emphatic fashion by storming to a wide-margin success in the Challow, Up For Review also advertised his Festival credentials when running out an effortless winner of the Grade 2 Dorans Pride Novice Hurdle.Strictly on ratings, Up For Review didn’t need to better the level he had achieved on his hurdling bow at Fairyhouse and his Timeform master rating remains unchanged on 141p. He did, however, create an excellent visual impression at Punchestown, always travelling well at the head of affairs before asserting on the bridle between the final two flights, and matters were always firmly under control. Up For Review failed to make an impression in last season’s Champion Bumper but he has been a completely different proposition upped in distance over hurdles, stamina clearly his strong suit, and he looks a good candidate for the Albert Bartlett, for all he may be up against an exceptional rival in Barters Hill (148P).

Up For Review is likely to be joined at the Cheltenham Festival by fellow Wylie-owned novice hurdlers Yorkhill and Bellshill. Yorkhill (141P) registered a first Grade 1 success when justifying odds-on favouritism in the Tolworth, building on the promise of his hurdling debut without needing to show significant improvement to beat O O Seven by two and a quarter lengths. Yorkhill needed keeping up to his work after the final flight, but he had travelled powerfully for much of the contest, taking things up on the bridle soon after the second last, and the extremely testing conditions offer a valid reason as to why he failed to readily draw clear. He remains an exciting prospect and is likely to be a leading candidate in whichever race he contests at the Festival.

Yorkhill is a top price of 8/1 for both the Supreme and the Neptune, the market for the latter race headed by stable companion Bellshill who also registered Grade 1 success at the weekend. Bellshill didn’t need to reproduce the level of form that he had shown on his previous start to win the Lawlor’s Hotel Novice Hurdle, and his unbeaten record over hurdles was never in any real jeopardy, a couple of mistakes at the final two flights merely serving to keep the winning margin down to five lengths. Bellshill progressed well last season and developed into a smart bumper performer, putting up one of the best performances in that sphere last term when winning at Punchestown, and he has taken well to hurdling, his rating of 152P marking him down as the standard setter amongst the Irish novice hurdlers, whilst only Altior has achieved a higher rating in Britain. The Deloitte at Leopardstown was mentioned as a possible pre-Festival target.

Arguably the most impressive performance from a Wylie-owned ‘hill’ at the weekend – certainly in terms of a ratings jump – came from Shaneshill (148p) who comfortably beat Sizing Codelco and Kitten Rock at Naas, showing much improved form from the simple task he had completed on his chasing bow at Thurles. A couple of late errors – pecked at the second last and dived at the final fence – were the only blemishes on an otherwise-impressive display from Shaneshill and, mindful of the level he achieved over hurdles, he is likely to develop into a leading contender for the JLT at the Cheltenham Festival.

It sometimes feels as if the whole season revolves around the Cheltenham Festival, though every meeting at the course nowadays is strongly contested and draws a big crowd - 34,505 attended the New Year’s Day fixture.
Seven horses went to post in a seemingly-competitive renewal of the Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase, but Seeyouatmidnight and Blaklion were the only runners to emerge from the contest with their reputations enhanced as a good gallop on testing ground proved too much for most to handle. It is perhaps significant that the first two home were proven stayers who had previously seemed best at around three miles and, with the Festival likely to be contested on a sounder surface, both horses make much more appeal for the RSA rather than the JLT.
Seeyouatmidnight (147p) was given an excellent front-running ride by Brian Hughes who turned the race into an attritional contest, playing to his mount’s strengths, but there was no element of fluke to the performance and he is now a legitimate contender for the RSA Chase, his straightforward style and fluent jumping sure to stand him in good stead. He still has a bit to find with the likes of No More Heroes (155p) and More of That (154p) but is well worth his place in the race.

The other significant display with the Cheltenham Festival in mind was provided by Camping Ground(160) who put himself firmly in the World Hurdle picture with a dominant victory in the Relkeel Hurdle. Camping Ground could be called the winner some way out on New Year’s Day, always travelling powerfully on the bridle and drawing clear before the second last, and he certainly has the ability to make an impact in the World Hurdle provided his stamina holds out (untried at three miles).

Other performances worth highlighting from the past week include Champers On Ice’s game victory in a well-contested novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham, Village Vic’s bold-jumping win in the valuable Betbright Handicap Chase, also at Prestbury Park, and Myska’s smooth success in a listed event at Taunton. Champers On Ice (133) was seen to maximum effect under a well-judged front-running ride, but it was still encouraging to see him jump much better than had been the case at Newbury and, in conceding 10lb to all bar two rivals, he produced his best effort to date. He will face much stiffer tasks in future but his willing attitude should stand him in good stead.

Village Vic (148+) made it four wins from as many starts in this coming-of-age season, dominating under an attacking ride, his fluent jumping once again proving to be a significant asset. He will have another rise in the weights to defy but still appeals as a leading contender for the Plate at the Festival.

Conditions were extremely testing at Taunton but that proved no barrier to success for Willie Mullins’ unbeaten raider Myska, who put some useful mares away with the minimum of fuss. Myska (132P) was untidy at the last but was otherwise difficult to fault and remains an exciting prospect, towards the top of the shortlist for the inaugural running of the mares’ novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, even acknowledging her trainer has a few other likely types.
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Is there no handicap update from Kempton?

Anyone know what marks were awarded to Cue Card and Vautour?
 
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He can't give Vautour anything less than 176, I wouldn't have thought. Dunno why he doesn't allocate Irish runners at least a provisional rating, when they run here.
 
is it because its not had 3 chase runs here?..its clearly got to be 176

thats some rating given experience over fences..now if he will just run it in the Ryanair we might see a 185 figure..otherwise he will run to the lower level imo..175 is not a bad lower level..but i'd rather see him where he can produce his best..not a dilution of it
 
Your argument is fair and very rational EC but trainers/owners chase prizes and not figures of interpretation

The GC is the golden egg and if they believe there is room for improvement, I think they will go down the GC route
 
granger said:
Your argument is fair and very rational EC but trainers/owners chase prizes and not figures of interpretation

The GC is the golden egg and if they believe there is room for improvement, I think they will go down the GC route
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just looking back...my error..he has had 3 chase runs here hasn't here?..wonder why no rating given

i know they chase prizes Granger..but its very simplistic just to aim at one race with ? marks..big ones stamina wise...and ignore a virtual gimme in the Ryanair

i'm sure he will go GC as Mullins has no time for the ryanair..its wrong choice though imo
 
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I think that overseas horses are only given an official BHA handicap mark if the trainer requests one or, of course, if entered in a handicap.
 
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The BHB site doesn't have Irish horses in its database. You need to wait until they're entered for a race before you find out their UK OR but I imagine there must be a site in Ireland with the official ratings. Hopefully one of the Irish lads can put us right.

The Irish handicapper's mark for Vautour should be the same as the UK one as they are supposed to arrive at a common figure following consultation with regard to horses above a certain level.

The BHB site doesn't upgrade the handicappers' blogs on a weekly basis, which is a pity, but I'd be surprised if there isn't an update soon due to the importance of the King George meeting.
 
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No idea why you're worried about stamina, EC1. He gets 3m+ on breeding, he will improve another half-stone just for being at Cheltenham, and another half-stone on top of that through further, natural progression.

Should be odds-on for the Gold Cup.






:lol:
 
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Today's update (I haven't read through it all but I didn't notice any mention of Vautour):

The Christmas period once again saw many of the sport’s biggest names doing battle for the first time this season, and it was notably busy over both hurdles and fences in the 2m division. Our handicappers give their assessments of the goings on, and Phil Smith also notes a few who could be developing into Aintree contenders as the National weights begin to loom.

[h=4]CLASH OF THE TITANS[/h]
The 2m chase division has seen a renaissance of a couple of former champions this season and the Grade 2 williamhill.com Desert Orchid Chase saw a compelling clash between the pair, but did either Sprinter Sacre or Sire de Grugy enhance their Champion Chase claims, asks Graeme Smith.
I thought it was encouraging that Sprinter Sacre toughed it out, as most of his wins have been achieved with at least a degree of ease. If there was a weakness in him physically this is the sort of situation that would likely have shown it – the finish was slow and tiring on the sectionals – but there wasn’t a hint of it. Admittedly a less-than-clean jump at the last from Sire de Grugy aided Sprinter Sacre’s cause, but the fact remains that Nicky Henderson’s charge got the better of a top-class rival who’d won the Tingle Creek last time.
The 2m chase division has seen a renaissance of a couple of former champions this season and the Grade 2 williamhill.com Desert Orchid Chase saw a compelling clash between the pair, but did either Sprinter Sacre or Sire de Grugy enhance their Champion Chase claims, asks Graeme Smith.
I thought it was encouraging that Sprinter Sacre toughed it out, as most of his wins have been achieved with at least a degree of ease. If there was a weakness in him physically this is the sort of situation that would likely have shown it – the finish was slow and tiring on the sectionals – but there wasn’t a hint of it. Admittedly a less-than-clean jump at the last from Sire de Grugy aided Sprinter Sacre’s cause, but the fact remains that Nicky Henderson’s charge got the better of a top-class rival who’d won the Tingle Creek last time.
The proximity of Vibrato Valtat (received 4lb from the first two) in third added further substance to Sire de Grugy’s 169 figure from the Tingle Creek. That returned a figure of 170 for Sprinter Sacre. So what of Sprinter Sacre’s 173 performance from Cheltenham? Well I reckon the Kempton form is a better guide to him that that. Maybe Cheltenham suits him better, but he had everything in his favour that day, i.e. weaker opposition and a weight allowance. Also, Somersby and Mr Mole have done absolutely nothing for that form in two subsequent runs apiece, and I’ve now dropped my assessment of it 3lb to fit in with Sprinter Sacre’s 170 here.
The current Champion Chase favourite Un de Sceaux took his first step outside of novice company in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown the same afternoon and he’d surely have won but for coming to grief two fences from home. He remains on the 168 he’d recorded last season.
Un de Sceaux’s departure left the way clear for Flemenstar to battle back past Simply Ned to win his first race since 2013. That form has already been discussed with the senior Irish Jumps Handicapper, and 161 Flemenstar and 160 Simply Ned looks the maximum level on current evidence. Don’t forget, last season’s Champion Dodging Bullets (171) is still waiting in the wings.
Kempton’s fixture on 27[SUP]th[/SUP] December also provided the opportunity for the Henry VIII-winner Ar Mad to confirm the huge step forward he’d taken at Sandown, and that’s exactly what he did with a hard-fought defeat of Vaniteux in the Grade 2 williamhill.com Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase. Vaniteux had very smart form to his name over hurdles – third in the 2014 Supreme Novices’ and then achieving a figure of 154 when touched off in that year’s Greatwood – and for much of the straight he looked to be getting the better of Ar Mad in receipt of 2lb. If there’s one thing you can rely on from Ar Mad though it’s his excellent jumping, and a bold leap at the last as Vaniteux got in tight saw him back ahead and home with the short run in coming to his aid.
This was another race that fitted in neatly on the figures. Ar Mad retains his 155 from Sandown, and that’s supported by the 149 I had for Arzal’s impressive handicap success at Newbury, with that one finishing just over five lengths away in third. Vaniteux now goes to 152.

[h=4]THE CHAMPION’S CROWN TO LOSE?[/h]
With Faugheen seemingly back to something approaching his best at Kempton’s Christmas meeting, it fell to his Morgiana Hurdle conqueror Nichols Canyon to fly the Mullins flag in Hurricane Fly’s old midwinter gig, Leopardstown’s Ryanair Hurdle, writes David Dickinson.
It was a better race than might have been anticipated with Identity Thief and Nichols Canyon making sure it was a decent test, the latter nicely on top by the line after the former had seemed to travel best. There are a couple of reasons to regard the form as less than stellar. Firstly, Plinth is nine lengths closer to Nichols Canyon than he was in the Morgiana. Secondly, Top Notch didn’t exactly cover Identity Thief’s Fighting Fifth form in glory during the week. Faugheen’s shortened ante post price for the Champion merely demonstrates the lack of in-form, top-quality opponents.
By comparison, there do seem to be a good number of high-class novice hurdlers around this season, as was demonstrated by the Willie Mullins raider, Yorkhill, in the Grade 132Red Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday. He won nicely despite idling once in front and not looking totally in love with the ground. His 151 rating would see him land the Supreme in some seasons but this season guarantees him no more than a fighting chance with close to half a dozen other possibles from the Mullins yard alone.
New Year’s Day saw James Ewart’s Aristo du Plessis score his sixth success from his last six completions in Musselburgh’s totepoolliveinfo.com Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle, his fourth handicap success during the run. The relatively modest 5lb increase in his mark to 150 is due in no small part to the fact that the last horse home in the race was beaten only nine lengths. Diarmuid O’Regan got his first chance to ride the stable star and rode a fine race, setting a good gallop before taking a breather on the home turn. What was also crucial to his success was a better jump at the last than both the second and more notably the third.
A return to Musselburgh or maybe a venture south for the Betfair Hurdle could be possible next targets but the horse is clearly being kept clear of deep ground. A tricky problem but a nice one for a Northern trainer to have.
[h=4]NATIONAL TREASURES[/h]
Over the last week there have been some interesting staying handicaps on both sides of the Irish Sea which may have a bearing come April when the 2016 Crabbie’s Grand National is run at Aintree, writes Phil Smith.
The Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown is always very competitive. Owing to the size of the field (28) it was run at a slightly faster pace than most Irish staying chases where they appear to dawdle for the first two miles. As a result I am confident that the form will be solid. The winner, Minella Foru, I would now have on 148 and as such is a certainty to get a run in the big one in April. He is however a novice, albeit a very experienced novice having run seven times over fences.
Second was Ucello Conti (147) who got mugged late on by Geraghty on the winner, who timed his run to perfection. The fourth, Gilgamboa (156) and the fifth The Job Is Right (142) also ran encouraging races, especially the latter as he appears to need another mile at least judging by the way he ran on towards the finish. All of the above are now high enough to virtually guarantee their owners a day out on Merseyside.
I have been looking at The Last Samuri (149) as a potential National horse for some time and after his victory at Kempton he has now won four of his seven chases and been placed in two others. Four fences out he was being ridden by his under-rated jockey before staying on well to win going away. His last five performances have been, 132, 137, 140, 141 and now 149. He looks sure to stay further and is clearly going in the right direction.
Perfect Candidate (143) won his race in a similar fashion at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Approaching the last there looked to be four in with a shout and a close finish in prospect. Much to my disappointment, Perfect Candidate ran away from the other three and again looks to be an interesting stayer in the making.
Although he did not run in a handicap Don Poli (166) did nothing to put off anyone who fancies him for the National when winning a very slowly run Lexus. Afterwards some observers were critical that he did not win more spectacularly but he is clearly a thorough stayer and the race was not run to suit him.
All of the above are now high enough to get a run judging by previous years and I will highlight others who have caught my eye qualifying for the big race over the next few weeks.
 
Grasshopper said:
No idea why you're worried about stamina, EC1. He gets 3m+ on breeding, he will improve another half-stone just for being at Cheltenham, and another half-stone on top of that through further, natural progression.

Should be odds-on for the Gold Cup.






:lol:
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i don't know wtf i'm worrying about after reading that..you made him sound like a cert:D
 
don't make sense DO,,particularly when you can actually mark Vautour up a 1lb or two for being on the front end of the pace..its impossible to rate him less than CC..higher yes..lower no
 
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