The thoughts of the handicappers.

SMAD WENT TO THE RIGHT PLACE WHEN HE RAN AT KEMPTON / 02 DEC 15

When Smad Place ran in the graduation chase at Kempton on 2 November, disappointingly, he was taken on by only four opponents, writes Phil Smith. In the past it has been perceived that running in non-handicaps means you risk harsher treatment from the Handicappers. This is something I hope to prove wrong in the following blog.

Smad Place won the race by eight lengths giving 3lb to Fingal Bay. Smad Place’s rating was left unchanged on 155 and Fingal Bay was dropped by 2lb to 144. My colleague, Mark Olley, wrote on our internal Handicapping system, “Smad Place dictated and powered clear on the run-in as the ratings suggested he should.”

This is the reason we often do not need to do too much to a horse’s rating when it runs in a non-handicap – more often than not they do exactly what we expected them to do.

A year ago Many Clouds went to Carlisle and ran in an intermediate chase. He convincingly beat Eduard and Holywell who were both rated significantly higher than he was at the time. In this instance we had to do something to the ratings as the three of them could re-oppose in a handicap. Many Clouds was put up 7lb yet still managed to win the Hennessy, after which he was put up another 9lb. He then went on to win the Crabbie’s Grand National.

So, this was some coincidence. Both Many Clouds and Smad Place ran in and won a non-handicap in their prep run for Newbury and both still won the Hennessy.

Since I returned to jumping from the Flat at the start of November I have assessed 10 non-handicaps. This is what I have done to the first four to finish:

[TABLE="width: 900"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Race
[/TD]
[TD]Winner
[/TD]
[TD]Second
[/TD]
[TD]Third
[/TD]
[TD]Fourth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2260
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]-2
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]No fourth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2332
[/TD]
[TD]+7
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]-8
[/TD]
[TD]-3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2372
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]No fourth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2399
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]-1
[/TD]
[TD]No fourth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2481
[/TD]
[TD]+12
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]No fourth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2553
[/TD]
[TD]+2
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]No fourth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2642
[/TD]
[TD]+5
[/TD]
[TD]-4
[/TD]
[TD]-2
[/TD]
[TD]-3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2660
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]-3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2717
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]No fourth
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2764
[/TD]
[TD]Unchanged
[/TD]
[TD]+2
[/TD]
[TD]-8
[/TD]
[TD]-7
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Winners – six unchanged and only four raised a total of 26lb at an average rise of 6.5lb.

Seconds – seven unchanged, only one raised by 2lb and two dropped a total of 6lb.

Thirds – six unchanged, none raised and four dropped a total of 19lb at an average drop of 4.75lb.

Fourths – All of the horses that actually completed and finished fourth were dropped a total of 16lb at an average of 4lb.

With these statistics I’d certainly encourage trainers to run in these non-handicaps – you have every chance of picking up prize money and statistically a greater chance of being dropped than going up.

Fingal Bay is a case in point. He earned £3,816 for being second to Smad Place at Kempton and went down 2lb. He has now picked up £10,660 for running fourth in the Hennessy and has dropped another 2lb. Over £14,000 for two runs and his handicap mark has come down from 146 to 142!

Meanwhile what of Smad Place? He is clearly now a Gold Cup contender and his new rating says as much. I have put him up 13lb for his stunning jumping master class. He is now on 168, the same figure that we agreed for Road To Riches’ performance when third in the Gold Cup last March. The trick now for his trainer is to improve him further to be able to perform in the mid to high 170s on the undulations of Cheltenham, as that is the figure that will probably be needed to win the 2016 renewal.
 
[h=2]FIGHTING IT OUT / 02 DEC 15[/h][h=2][/h]While the Hennessy is discussed in Phil Smith’s Head of Handicapping blog, the best of the rest from the weekend is discussed here, with David Dickinson leading off his 2m hurdles round-up with his thoughts on the first Grade 1 of the British season in the division.

[h=4]THIEF ALMOST MUGGED[/h]

Just one year after making a successful racecourse debut in a Fairyhouse bumper the Henry de Bromhead-trained Identity Thief made the step up to Grade 1 success in the stanjames.com Fighting Fifth, but not before a final flight error could have cost him victory, writes David Dickinson.

Last winter didn’t go smoothly for the Gigginstown-owned gelding after he followed his bumper win with a maiden hurdle success, but with a summer to mature and more forcing tactics employed he’s looked a different horse in two runs this season. Saturday taught us that he’s just as happy to take a lead as make the running, with Top Notch going on and stretching the field going down the back straight. Identity Thief’s last flight error looked to have tipped the scales in the direction of Top Notch for a while but it would have been rough justice had the Irish raider been beaten and he rallied well to score.

I have used Top Notch’s pre-race 158 as a guide to the form for now, rating Identity Thief 2lb above that – 1lb for the neck margin and another because Bryan Cooper weighed in 1lb heavy. Clearly with a better jump at the last, he would have been a shade higher still.

As a first test of the form of the Morgiana Hurdle in which Nichols Canyon beat reigning Champion Faugheen, Wicklow Brave’s running at Newcastle posed a few questions. I rated that Irish race at the time through Plinth, who although well beaten that day, is relatively consistent and was competing for fourth place right to the line – my rating of 166 for Wicklow Brave appeared in the Newcastle racecard. The implication of Saturday’s result is that if you take Wicklow Brave’s running literally, then neither Nichols Canyon nor Faugheen would have got anywhere near the first two had they instead represented the Mullins yard on Saturday. I have not changed my assessment of the Morgiana race on the one below par effort but it would be fair to say that there have to be doubts as to the value of the form.

Hennessy weekend is always pivotal with regard to the novices and there were a couple of eyecatching performances on the Newbury undercard on Friday. The Q Associates Juvenile hurdle has been won by Calipto and Old Guard in the last two years but it is hard to imagine that there has ever been a more visually impressive winner of the race than the Dan Skelton-trained French import Kasakh Noir.

Watching it was the easy bit, as assessing the race gives an enormous headache. Of the two with proven hurdle form Darebin boiled over pre-race, failing to perform, and the Alan King-trained French import Ardamir, failed to get home. This wasn’t entirely a surprise as there was a strong suspicion that the pace in the first two thirds of the race was too strong, given the ground. The way the event watched it wasn’t exactly a shock that the last two in the early stages were first and second at the line. Nonetheless, this shouldn’t distract from the fact that Kazakh Noir must now be near the top of the British juveniles seen so far.

The Friday card closed with the bet365 National Hunt Maiden Hurdle, so often a decent race. Promising bumper horses Bun Doran and West Approach failed to fire fully on their hurdle bows and it was left to the heavily-backed Wait For Me to follow home the impressive winner, Buveur D’Air. The value of the form isn’t easy to quantify given that the runner-up’s hurdling (to plagiarise the late, great Douglas Adams) saw him hang in the sky in much the same way that bricks don’t. I am sure Wait For Me will learn much from the experience and he clearly has plenty of ability – to have run so well having jumped so poorly was an achievement in itself.

Buveur D’Air was a decent bumper horse, twice coming up short against Barters Hill in that sphere, but he looked every inch a top prospect over hurdles here. Friday’s fifth home After Hours, appeared to have established himself at around 110 judged on previous runs in lesser races. He was beaten 40 lengths on Friday. Whether that flatters the winner only time will tell.

Sunday’s Fairyhouse card saw top weight Rashaan win the Grade 3 Bar One Juvenile Hurdle with some authority and the finish of the following Grade 1 Royal Bond fought out by the Willie Mullins-trained pair Long Dog and Bachasson. Both created a positive impression, with a wide margin back to three perfectly decent opponents. Given a fair wind, all three will be worthy of serious consideration in their chosen races come March. The novice season is indeed bubbling along nicely.

[h=4]THISTLE PRICKS REPUTATIONS[/h]

Two high-class staying hurdlers had their statuses temporarily dented in the Bet365 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, writes Martin Greenwood.

Cole Harden and Whisper both won top races in their division last season and were well clear on pre-race ratings, even allowing for the pair giving weight away, but both were below par, the former shaping OK and plugging on again, the latter never looking particularly happy and losing his action.

With Aqalim again looking far from keen, this left disappointing chaser Deputy Dan and the unexposed Thistlecrack to fight out the finish. The latter has improved tremendously since upped in trip and won at the Aintree Festival before finishing second at the Punchestown equivalent later in April. Though rated only 150 going into the race on Saturday he was the one with potential for serious improvement and so it proved, galloping on after the others cried enough to score by six lengths.

Similar to the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby last month, it’s hard to be exactly sure what was achieved here, and the staying hurdle division seems to provide more questions than answers at the minute. An average winner of the Newbury race over the last few years suggests a figure in the low to mid 160s, and with the proximity of Deputy Dan and Aqalim it is hard to get carried away with the form. Thistlecrack’s new fig is now 161, still behind the top of the tree, but obviously with scope for further progression, while Deputy Dan appears to have posted a career-best 151, though he was unexposed when he was last seen over hurdles and maybe isn’t cut out for the larger obstacles.
 
Aughex said:
14th December 2015 Ratings Update: Faugheen has nothing to fear from the new Guard https://www.timeform.com/racing/art...s-nothing-to-fear-from-the-new-guard-14122015
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you are making the mistake of thinking OG has no more improvement in him though..Make A stand was rated only 136 in January when he won his CH in march.

any improving horse that wins a CH is hardly likely to have a 170 rating in the December

he only has to improve a few lbs each month to be a contender..its not impossible
 
EC1 said:
you are making the mistake of thinking OG has no more improvement in him though..Make A stand was rated only 136 in January when he won his CH in march.

any improving horse that wins a CH is hardly likely to have a 170 rating in the December

he only has to improve a few lbs each month to be a contender..its not impossible
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Not impossible, but has to be considered so unlikely as to be insignificant, surely?
 
Grasshopper said:
Not impossible, but has to be considered so unlikely as to be insignificant, surely?
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no nothings impossible

the point really though is that saying OG has no chance against Faugheen as Aughex stated at curremt ratings is misleading if you have an improving horse..OG..even if he doesn't win CH will be highly likely to be rated higher than his current mark come March. I was pretty staggered when i checked Make a stands rating in January...it just shows you when a horse gets on an upward curve what they can get to in a pretty short time. We have seen many horses improve massively in a couple of months through the years..not just CH ones.

Its one reason why ante post betting on races such as this has zero interest for me personally. Things can change a lot over the sticks in a very short time. This time last year..how many thought Coneygree would win the GC?
 
EC1 said:
you are making the mistake of thinking OG has no more improvement in him though
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And you are making the mistake of thinking I wrote that TF article. If you go onto the CH thread you'll see I made a solid case for OG chances. He looks very underestimated based simply on the closeness of Mullins 3rd string, but the race was a farce and suited Sempre Medici more than others.
 
i should've italicized the title... still it would've been pretty hypocritical to make a case for OG on the main CH thread and disconsider his chances on this one...I wish I worked for TF though :lol:
 
Handicapper has OG at 157. I don't dispute that he has the profile of an improving horse, but the question should be "How much more improvement does he have left?"

For me, the latest run is a sign that his progression is starting to flatten-out (he certainly didn't improve on his official-mark in the International, imo), and on that basis, he has it all to do to get amongst the places. I think it's unreasonable to think he can find the 10lbs bare minimum he needs, to see him fighting out the finish.

He is a Rigmarole clone.
 
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I think that the on paper form of the international doesn't really represent the difference between the finishers though Grass..the way the race was run meant it was never going to have one horse put lengths between itself another..it was a sprint finish making putting true form ratings on them likely to be difficult.

you obviously could be correct about OG plateauing out..but that race isn't concrete for me..need to see him again don't we really?
 
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If he is going to win a Champion Hurdle, he needed to be putting a lot more daylight between himself and horses of the calibre of Hargam and Sempre Medici, EC1 - regardless of the pace. The fact that he wasn't able to, is why I reckon his progression is probably now leveling-off.

The overall level of the form of the International, I agree, needs the oven-glove treatment.
 
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Grasshopper said:
He is a Rigmarole clone.
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Old Guard looks bigger as a 4yo than Rigmarole at 5, the scope of improvement is on OG's side and with only 8 starts over hurdles(4 wins) he could still be unexposed, in contrast Rigmarole had more than 25 starts and was firmly in the handicapper's grip. Next start at Kingwell in February, taking on Irving and hopefully TNO, we'll find out more.
 
What exactly do you expect to find out by running him against two other yokes that can't win a Champion Hurdle either?
 
Grasshopper said:
What exactly do you expect to find out by running him against two other yokes that can't win a Champion Hurdle either?
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Wither they should run him in the World Hurdle? You shouldn't dislike a horse coz of its owner but in this case I make an exception.
 
Grasshopper said:
What exactly do you expect to find out by running him against two other yokes that can't win a Champion Hurdle either?
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Wither they should run him in the World Hurdle? You shouldn't dislike a horse coz of its owner but in this case I make an exception.
 
Grasshopper said:
What exactly do you expect to find out by running him against two other yokes that can't win a Champion Hurdle either?
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TNO would've won the `14 if not for being badly hampered and Irving is a proper 160+ horse(if he gives his running), if he can beat the latter by couple of lengths it'll show OG continued improvement. I don't know if he'll beat TNO but if he comes close, it'll still be considered a step forward as TNO at his best is 167 rated.
 
I wouldn't call 2 lengths pure fantasy after he was badly hampered and almost brought to a halt in the most important part of the race when the pace is lifting and you have to recover all the lost ground and momentum. This thread has badly derailed.
 
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