The thoughts of the handicappers.

THISTLECRACK NOT AT CONEYGREE’S LEVEL – YET! / 04 JAN 17

Handicapper Phil Smith gives his verdict on the impressive performance of Thistlecrack in the 32Red King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day.

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In February 2015, I wrote in a BHA blog that I rated Coneygree (166) better than Denman (161) as a Novice chaser. I received a fair amount of criticism for that assertion, but less so after Coneygree won the Gold Cup the following month.

Coneygree went to 172 after Cheltenham and one of the decisions I had to make this week was where should I rate Thistlecrack after his King George victory. As well as looking at what horses were behind and how far they were beaten, I also looked at the historical context of the performances of 3 mile novice chasers. I had to ask myself was Thistlecrack’s achievement in beating a clearly below form Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti, Tea For Two and Josses Hill better than Coneygree’s effort in the Gold Cup?


In the 2015 Gold Cup Coneygree had 16 opponents and after leading all the way put up a terrific time in beating Djakadam, Road To Riches, Holywell, Many Clouds, Silviniaco Conti and Carlingford Lough all of whom had won their previous race. Both Many Clouds and Silviniaco Conti subsequently won their next race at Aintree, so the form was amazingly solid.

Of course Thistlecrack was spectacular and we are all looking for a new horse to admire and love, BUT if Might Bite (152) had stood up in the Kauto Star Chase 70 minutes earlier, he would have put up a faster time than Thistlecrack did in the King George. So I have Thistlecrack on 171, lower than his hurdle mark of 174 and lower than Coneygree at the end of his novice season. Higher however, than any novice we have had since the start of the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification in 1999-2000 at this stage of their novice career.


Thistlecrack is clearly full of potential but so too is the same yard’s Native River. Yes, he was favoured by the conditions of the Welsh National and was able to run off the same mark (155) as he did when winning the Hennessy, but he answered a completely different set of questions at Chepstow than he did at Newbury and is now on 168 after routing his field. He is clearly making rapid progression and although Thistlecrack’s jumping will continue to get better, Native River is two years younger and will improve.

Add in a back-to-form Cue Card, a fit again Don Cossack and Outlander, the improving Lexus winner who has not been out of the first three in his last 12 races when he has got round. We should have a Gold Cup to savour.
 
My own take on Boxing Day at Kempton:

Kempton

The racing was watchable enough even though I had to catch up on the videos later in the week but I’m not sure if the real quality was there.

On comparative times, the Christmas Hurdle was 25lbs faster than the opening novices’ hurdle won a year earlier by Altior. If there was an Altior in this field then Yanworth is already past the post in March. However, Altior’s supposed successor, Jenkins, was never going and the 1/2 favourite’s number was up before halfway.

If the winner Elgin’s OR of 137 is correct and if we take his time as a true reflection of that ability then Yanworth emerges as a 162 horse, which wouldn’t be good enough for any better than maybe a place in the Champion Hurdle. I would worry, too, that Yanworth appeared to struggle to go the pace here and it will almost certainly be faster on the day. I’m also concerned that Ch’tibello, an admirable handicapper though he is, was a close third having to these eyes been ridden simply to pick up the scraps. I had him on 152p going into the race, which would put Yanworth on 158, a pound ahead of his OR.

The unfathomable thing is that the handicapper, who had Ch’tibello on 145, has raised him to 149 yet he has raised Yanworth by 6lbs for giving him a 6lbs beating. Does he not realise this was not a handicap? A 6lbs beating of a 149 horse makes him a 155 horse. And he did not have an ounce in reserve. If Yanworth is a 164 horse, Ch’tibello should be a 158 horse. It will interesting to see if he corrects this anomaly before the end of the season.

I don’t imagine Ch’tibello is the Skeltons’ main hope for the Schweppes and I’ll be interested to see what represents them on the day.

Back to Elgin. He may not have needed to run to his OR although the debutant runner-up Mohaayed was a 100+ Flat horse and was entitled to run well also for the Skeltons.

The closing handicap hurdle was very slow by comparison.

A lot of the racing scribes needed to send their underwear to the laundry after the King George for fear of it breaking if they left it too long but I’m already putting a dampener on the form. Cue Card was clearly below form, especially on lines with Tea For Two, officially 23lbs his inferior yet only 2.3 feet behind him. Silviniaco Conti has been on the slide for some time but even his best recent form only puts Thistlecrack on 166, about a stone behind Don Cossack and Cue Card at their best. I’m not convinced Thistlecrack hacked up either. He may have been able to go quicker – we’ll find out about that in March – but he was slowing up from two out, long before Scu put the brakes on for the final few strides. His current Gold Cup price strikes me as very ungenerous.

On times, he was only 8lbs – call it 11lbs for the ease of victory – faster than the Feltham winner Royal Vacation who had an OR of just 131 and who has been put up to just 143. On times that makes Thistlecrack a 151 horse. On top of that, Might Bite was 18 lengths clear and going away when Jacob tried to get him to eat the final fence.

It will be interesting to see where they go with Might Bite now. I’m rating him a 20-lengths winner. Royal Vacation went up 12lbs so you’d imagine Might Bite should now be rated 16lbs his superior. Not a bit of it. He’s been put up 4lbs to 152 and would have run the course and distance about 2½ seconds – some 11 or 12lbs – faster than Thistlecrack. You’d have to imagine the festival handicap won by Un Temps Pour Tout would be at his mercy should they opt for that rather than the RSA. Mind you, they’d still have Holywell to deal with there.
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This sort of downgrading Yanworth because of Ch'Tibello's proximity. Do you not factor in a horse being ridden to place rather than trying to win a race to your figures.

For example:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

Gabrial's proximity to Solow should not mean the latter is given a rating in the early 120s.



Also, what do you have Politologue on? He was almost as impressive in beating Royal Vacation as Might Bite looked like he was going to be?
 
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Euronymous said:
This sort of downgrading Yanworth because of Ch'Tibello's proximity. Do you not factor in a horse being ridden to place rather than trying to win a race to your figures.

For example:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

Gabrial's proximity to Solow should not mean the latter is given a rating in the early 120s.

I haven't checked Politologue's form yet.


Also, what do you have Politologue on? He was almost as impressive in beating Royal Vacation as Might Bite looked like he was going to be?
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For me, the time of the race alone means you take the form with a pinch of salt, plus it was soft ground which is more than capable of throwing up the regular strange result.

On another day and in different circumstances it isn't hard to see Solow beating Gabriel by much more.
 
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Not in the least surprised re BDM.

That makes him third-top rated of the home-trained contingent, only 2lbs behind Native River and 4lbs behind Cue Card and, alongside Many Clouds, 2lbs and more ahead of the rest.

And exactly what did he have in reserve?

I think that's worth a wee debate.

I'd want to see any comments by the handicapper in support of BDM's new mark. I wouldn't be surprised if they included something to the effect that the rating might be quite conservative.
 
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The thing with BDM do for me at least is that he has to have certain things fall into place to produce his best, when he does he is a really lovely horse

The other home trained seem to be more adaptable

BDM would be seen best on soft ground flat tracks - King George could well be his pinnacle
 
granger said:
The thing with BDM do for me at least is that he has to have certain things fall into place to produce his best, when he does he is a really lovely horse

The other home trained seem to be more adaptable

BDM would be seen best on soft ground flat tracks - King George could well be his pinnacle
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Wins at Haydock, Sandown, Leicester and Chepstow would suggest versatility to me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not in the least surprised re BDM.

That makes him third-top rated of the home-trained contingent, only 2lbs behind Native River and 4lbs behind Cue Card and, alongside Many Clouds, 2lbs and more ahead of the rest.

And exactly what did he have in reserve?

I think that's worth a wee debate.

I'd want to see any comments by the handicapper in support of BDM's new mark. I wouldn't be surprised if they included something to the effect that the rating might be quite conservative.
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Really liked this horse coming into the new season but I was disappointed when he didn't win at Newcastle. Then I figured the form of last year's JLT is not looking so hot, so I opposed him on Saturday.

What did you make of the Newcastle run? As others have said I think he needs it soft to be at his best.
 
MoscowFlyerisMagnificent said:
What did you make of the Newcastle run? As others have said I think he needs it soft to be at his best.
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I actually rated that a strong race and put BDM within 2lbs of being potential winner of a race like Saturday's. I just had others with back form higher.

The ground wasn't soft in the JLT so I'm not too worried about that either. The pace at the trip might have been a factor in the mistakes he made but he jumped beautifully all the way on Saturday.

It's impossible to know how much they have in reserve until they actually come off the bit and it may be that he's a generous runner so was giving close to maximum effort anyway but it certainly looked a supremely easy performance.
 
I reckon it's a tough race to assess for two key reasons; 1. Wide margin victories in Haydock's soft ground often flatter the winner (remember Dato Star's Champion Hurdle trial ?), 2. The proximity of the key opponents could be questioned; Alary scoped dirty after the race, Otago Trail can throw in the odd PU and Definitly Red is arguably starting to show laziness tendencies at key points in a race.

On the other hand NTD has long thought of BDM as an out and out stayer so it's possible whatever he did over two and a half was a bonus and now he'll really start to shine. He'll need to from a mark of 166 though.

He's the sort of horse you could see running a big one at Aintree in a few years time but I fear his achieving a mark like that at his tender age could scupper his future because he's surely too high for handicaps now.
 
wilsonl said:
Wide margin victories in Haydock's soft ground often flatter the winner (remember Dato Star's Champion Hurdle trial
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Cobblers. Dato Star had plenty of other form to back-up the fact he was top-class.

For shame, Wilson......for shame, I say!

:lol:
 
wilsonl said:
I reckon it's a tough race to assess for two key reasons; 1. Wide margin victories in Haydock's soft ground often flatter the winner (remember Dato Star's Champion Hurdle trial ?), 2. The proximity of the key opponents could be questioned; Alary scoped dirty after the race, Otago Trail can throw in the odd PU and Definitly Red is arguably starting to show laziness tendencies at key points in a race.

On the other hand NTD has long thought of BDM as an out and out stayer so it's possible whatever he did over two and a half was a bonus and now he'll really start to shine. He'll need to from a mark of 166 though.

He's the sort of horse you could see running a big one at Aintree in a few years time but I fear his achieving a mark like that at his tender age could scupper his future because he's surely too high for handicaps now.
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I haven't done my full review of the race yet (I need to watch it again a couple of times) but my lasting impression so far is:

1. They lined up like it was for a sprint with the first bend only a hundred yards or so in front of them and they went hell for leather for the first half mile to get into a position. BDM went the pace without being asked.

2. They maintained a strong pace the whole way in sot ground. The final time, despite the distance being extended by rail movements, just over 16s slow. That's a good time in the conidtions.

3. BDM was never out of his comfort zone in circumstances that brought everything else, one by one, to its knees.

4. If others didn't run their race it was because they just couldn't go the pace in the conditions.
 
:D I'm in the same boat as you mate. Following on from that win my summer holiday hinged on him putting it up to some young upstart, trained by a relative nobody, in March.

Alas Istabraq had a major stroke of luck as the rain disappeared in unison with my holiday.
 
Is BDM one of those horses that, ostensibly, likes the ground soft, but actually doesn't mind it good the further he has to travel? 'Mudlark' Many Clouds won a National on good ground, so I can see BDM getting a place in the GC on good ground. If it comes up soft, he's worth a further investment. Is another issue that he's only 6? But he seems to have quite a few miles on the clock at this early stage: he's already run 11 chases.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't done my full review of the race yet (I need to watch it again a couple of times) but my lasting impression so far is:

1. They lined up like it was for a sprint with the first bend only a hundred yards or so in front of them and they went hell for leather for the first half mile to get into a position. BDM went the pace without being asked.

2. They maintained a strong pace the whole way in sot ground. The final time, despite the distance being extended by rail movements, just over 16s slow. That's a good time in the conidtions.

3. BDM was never out of his comfort zone in circumstances that brought everything else, one by one, to its knees.

4. If others didn't run their race it was because they just couldn't go the pace in the conditions.
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As I said DO - in true fence sitting style at this stage - it may well turn out to be an exceptional performance but the track is known for throwing those up and I want to see him back it up before I get too carried away.

Put it this way, Native River narrowly won a Hennessy and Welsh Nash off a mark of 155 and is Gold Cup second fav at no bigger than 6/1. Bristol De Mai has just spreadeagled the field by 22+ lengths off 154 and yet he's available at 20s (16s with the NRNB concession).

That's either an incredible e/w price or there are plenty of others harboring doubts about the race's worth too.

I reckon it's somewhere between the two personally.
 
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Whatever the merits of BDMs performance at the weekend - and it was undoubtedly smart - it's really all about whether he can repeat the feat in the Gold Cup.

I reckon he is solid and likely to always give his running, but my suspicion is he probably dominated inferior/less consistent animals on Saturday, and he would find life inexorably tougher in a higher-class race. Arguments about his price compared to Native River's have some validity, though even then, I think the Hennessy and Welsh Nationals probably took a degree more winning than the Peter Marsh did.

In an attritional Gold Cup, he might run into the places, but I'm not convinced he has the talent to trouble the places if it's run on anything other than bottomless ground. Just my view.
 
I agree pretty much with everything being said.

Saturday's race would probably have been much more informative on better ground. The Hennessy for me will always be the handicap of the season. The GN is a one-off but nowadays seldom produces a genuine surprise even if the winner is at a big price.

To 'narrowly' win a race like the Hennessy of Welsh National, doesn't necessarily detract from a top handicap performance. It's all relative. If a horse that's 20lbs well in beats one that's 19lbs well in there might only be a length or two between them but it doesn't mean it wasn't a performance commensurate with their ability.

On another day the Peter Marsh could have been more informative. Better ground would have helped some but I'm not sure any of the beaten horses were inconvenienced by the ground. They were inconvenienced by the pace.

It was more reminiscent of Master Oats's Welsh National win before his Gold Cup win. I'm pretty sure at the time he got a Raceform rating of 186 (I've got the book in the loft so will check it out) but I see the RP database says 175, achieved off 154. I do remember thinking 'no way'. My brother was on the phone to tell me he was backing it for the Gold Cup (it was 40/1) and I talked him out of it. He's never forgiven me. It had given Earth Summit and Party Politics weight and a 20L and 25L beating in heavy ground.

Edit - the book says 175# but the OR given is 148 so they've incorporated the general 6lbs weights rise in the database that was implemented about 20 years ago. (Does that mean Arkle should really be 218??)

The # was the symbol back in the day, if memory serves, for 'better than the bare form' or words to that effect.
 
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Meant to say...

For comparative purposes, these are the OR, RPR and my own (DO) figures for Native River's two wins and BDM (which I haven't finalised yet):

Hennessy: 155 / 168 / 171*
Welsh Nash: 155 / 171 / 172*

BDM: 154 / 173 / 176+p*

(* I reduce this by 5lbs when moving into non-handicaps)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
My brother was on the phone to tell me he was backing it for the Gold Cup (it was 40/1) and I talked him out of it. He's never forgiven me.
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I'm surprised you've still got fingers left to type with! :lol:

Master Oats was given 183 in the 94/95 edition of Chasers & Hurdlers. Save you getting the Ramsay Ladder out. :cool:
 
We laugh about it and exchange a bit of banter but I can tell it still hurts him!

On the other side of the coin, I gave him Acatenango when it won one of the big races in America at triple-figure odds and forgot to back it myself! He reminds me of that regularly, the bastert.
 
I don't think he needs a flat track and soft ground to be at or near his best, but I do think the combination of good ground and an undulating track are not ideal. So I wouldn't fancy him at all for Cheltenham given good ground but the Aintree Bowl would be ok.
 
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