The thoughts of the handicappers.

[Grasshopper]

Phil Smith: 152$

One-time fair performer. Temperament under suspicion. Prone to blunders, and a tendency to find little under pressure in recent seasons.




I wish him all the best with his retirement.

 

[granger]

He'll still do it but not get paid for it now

He should of kept going when still healthy

 

[Desert Orchid]

He pretty much single-handedly revolutionised the art/skill of handicapping in this country.

I hope he has procedures in place for the work he has started and developed to continue at least until I retire from punting myself.

God help us all if Dominic Gardner-Hill takes over...

 

[Tanlic]

How would the handicapper view the 6.40 at Kempton eg were the first 2 to meet again in a handicap?

I backed the winner for a tenner so no axe to grind but lucky for me James Doyle was unlucky or fooked up big time depending on your view

Switched right start, held up in rear, headway on inside chasing leaders 2f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, stayed on into 2nd never able to challenge op 2/1 tchd 7/4 and tchd 5/

He actually dived in behind the entire field to get to the rail couldn't make any ground for most of the race and ended up 10 to 12 lengths behind Tivoli and never stood a chance of catching him....

If I read the above I wouldn't think too much of it and would give the 2nd 2 or 3 pounds
but if I saw the race I'd be tempted to give him nothing.

There's not enough time in anyone's day to do the job properly imo

 

[Perpetual]

Triomphe indeed

Andrew Mealor looks back on a memorable success for Enable in the 96th running of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s richest race.

In receipt of both the weight-for-age and weight-for-sex allowance, Enable looked the standout performer at the weights prior to this year’s Arc but she still improved both her form and standing with a commanding success.

In a relatively trouble-free race considering the big field, Enable was handy from an early stage just off the pacemaking Idaho and his stablemate Order of St George. Having travelled supremely well, Enable soon had the race in safe keeping once Dettori sent her on with two furlongs to go, coming home two and a half lengths clear of Cloth Of Stars with Ulysees a further length and a quarter back in third.

As far as rating the race goes, the proximity of Cloth Of Stars looked a potential fly in the ointment at first glance given he came in rated 117 and had been beaten into second by Dschingis Secret (120) in the Foy over the Arc course and distance three weeks previously. However, improvement from him isn’t unwarranted given his overall profile as a 4yo who has not had many tries at twelve furlongs. In addition, the Foy was his first outing since May and the overall result looks solid going down the field with most of the runners finishing roughly where expected.

Fourth home Order of St George in particular gives a good guide to the level having finished third in last year’s Arc and he has looked as good as ever this season.


As with all of the big Group 1 races worldwide, the final published figures are a result of consultation between the relevant Handicappers in each country. Following those discussions, Enable has been allotted a new mark of 128, up 2 lb from her pre-race 126.

Calling her margin of victory 6 lb (factoring in the ease of the win) brings Cloth Of Stars out at 125 after the 3 lb (1.5kg) fillies allowance is taken into account. That is roughly around the figure you would expect a runner-up in the Arc to achieve judged on the standard of recent renewals. He comprehensively reversed the Foy form with Dschingis Secret who was not far off his best in sixth despite charting a wide passage.

Ulysees did not quite run to his best in the Arc and remains 2 lb ahead of Cloth of Stars on 127, a figure he achieved over ten furlongs in the Juddmonte International. Also placed behind Enable in the King George earlier this season, Ulysees clearly has high-class form at twelve furlongs; but it may well be that slightly shorter suits him ideally. He was a bit keen at Chantilly.

Getting back to Enable, a winning figure of 128 is well up to scratch for an Arc winner and is bang on the average rating achieved in the race by the previous ten winners.

Fillies have been remarkably successful in the Arc in recent years, with only three of the last ten renewals going to the males, a sequence kicked off by Zarkava in 2008. Enable is now rated the equal of both her and 2011 winner Danedream, and behind only Treve (who was rated 130 after a five-length with in 2013) amongst the winning fillies in that period.

Treve, of course, returned to complete an Arc double in 2014, a feat that Enable will hopefully be given a chance to emulate in 2018 when the race moves back to the newly-renovated Longchamp

The final European Group 1 race over 5f was the Qatar Abbaye de Longchamp run on Arc day and it produced a commanding performance from Battaash writes Chris Nash. He disputed the lead early and led before halfway before powering clear of his rivals to win by four lengths from Marsha with Profitable a further neck away in third.


Marsha had won the Nunthorpe last time and arrived rated 121 and Profitable had run in all the big sprints in 2017 generally performing with credit and arrived rated 115. In blowing them away I was really hopeful that I could get Battaash to a figure of 125+; but the form of the Abbaye is somewhat tempered by the next two home – the British trained Duke Of Firenze (4th) and Queen Kindly (5th). This meant that I felt I could only get Battaash to a figure of 123+ which put Marsha well below her Nunthorpe form at 108, Profitable at 110, Duke of Firenze at 107 (he arrived rated 104) and Queen Kindly running to her pre-race mark of 103. Yet the only horse to have run a higher figure in the race this century was the John Oxx trained Namid who was given a figure of 127 for his win in the 2000 renewal.

The 123 figure for Battaash represents another career best and is the highest figure achieved over 5f this season. Lady Aurelia who won the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot returned a figure of 122 there and I decided to downgrade the figure for Marsha in the Nunthorpe to 120 after her run on Sunday. Bar Battaash’s below par effort last time out at York where he got stewed up in the preliminaries, the colt has a progressive profile having run figures of 109+, 115, 122+, 108 and 123+ in his 5 starts this season.
Because he is a gelding it seems very likely that he will remain in training next season. I am hopeful that there might be still more to come.

Like brother like sister?

It has been just under a year since Churchill cemented his place as Champion Two-Year-Old with victory in the Dewhurst. Last weekend his sister Clemmie thrust herself to the top of the tree amongst the juvenile fillies with a decisive success in the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Sakes, writes Graeme Smith.


Clemmie has long had a tall reputation and had won in Group 3 and Group 2 company since her defeat in the Albany; but it was only on Saturday that she produced the sort of performance we’d long been promised.

With Different League and Treasuring ensuring a sound test, the Cheveley Park produced the strongest time of the day returning a speed figure of 115. Both historical standards and a line through the likeable runner-up Different League mirrored that figure and that put her above the mean from the last six runnings, albeit 1lb below the last two winners. Clemmie’s figure, as well as the other Irish horses to have run in the last week, was discussed with the Irish Two-year-old Handicapper Mark Bird but obviously these figures are still fluid until the end of the year.

The exciting thing about Clemmie is that she is bred to stay a mile. Her ability to first match the speedy-Different League and then keep going as that one cried enough bode really well for her prospects from here. It seems a step up in trip at the Breeders’ Cup could well be next.

The Juddmonte Middle Park looked to have more depth to it that the fillies’ race beforehand but it left a rather confusing picture with Beckford, Sioux Nation, Unfortunately and Sands of Mali all misfiring to varying degrees. Fleet Review’s much-improved performance in second came as something of a surprise but the July Stakes winner Cardsharp provided some much-needed backbone in third. WIth hindsight U S Navy Flag had signalled an improved performance last time for all he had been beaten in six of his eight starts before this race.

A speed figure of 108 does not read well against Clemmie’s; but it is not a like-for-like comparison as, when sectionals are factored in, they paint a picture of a strongly-run Middle Park that became rather hard work in the finish. Both race standards and a line through Cardsharp’s best of 110 point to 117 for U S Navy Flag. While time will tell how well the form works out there is an argument that U S Navy Flag did creditably to stay in front having forced the pace throughout.


With the Dewhurst on the horizon 118 is now the benchmark to beat and there are several European two-year-olds on 117. It is Expert Eye who sits on top at the minute courtesy of a further endorsement of his Vintage form from Mildenberger’s good run in the Royal Lodge.

The Royal Lodge winner Roaring Lion ran to 112 and he looked at one stage as though he was capable of winning by further than the final margin of a neck. It is to be hoped that his tendency to hang left doesn’t inhibit his progress from here.

Attraction’s son Elarqam has quickly made into a smart performer and he too earned a mark of 112 when taking the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket on Thursday in decisive fashion (speed figure of 98). Surely he’ll be over 1m before long and there’s a fair chance there’s more still to come from him. For what it’s worth it sounds as though he has Mark Johnston very excited!

Juliet Capulet continued her progression when making the Group 2 breakthrough in the Shadwell Rockfel on Friday. She received a beautifully-judged ride from Frankie Dettori (speed figure of 98) and ran to a mark of 106 as she held Nyaleti off by a head. It’s also worth mentioning Gavota (102) who ran on into third starting her run from further back than the first two had. She had been most impressive in a couple of novices and I’d imagine she could make a better fist of things given another try in this grade.

 

[Grey]

Enable 128 makes more sense than the Timeform rating; taking into account the filly allowance it puts her into a rarefied category without forcing a rewrite of racing history. I'd love to see her build on it next season, she might well be capable of it. But for the time being there has not been enough quality in general this season to give her an ultra high rating in spite of her fantastic string of big race wins.

 

[Perpetual]

Cheltenham Open Meeting thoughts...

The November Meeting | Handicapping Blog
21 Nov 17


GINGE WINS

The Grade 3 Betvictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase is the first big early-closing 2m4f chase of the season and it was the usual fiercely competitive contest writes Mark Olley.

Heavy rain from a couple of hours before the start of racing turned the ground very soft and the fact they went a decent pace in the conditions made this a true stamina test at the distance.

Splash Of Ginge has been around the block a few times and, according to his trainer, had lost his confidence over fences last season. A switch back to hurdles seemed to do the trick and back on soft ground that he handles well, he battled on very bravely to gain a hard fought and well deserved win. His chase rating moves to 139 (+5) which was what his hurdle figure was going into this race. This is still some way below the 145 he was rated when last winning a chase, here at Cheltenham, back in 2015. He will reportedly be back for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap on December 16th.

Starchitect was a gallant second. He did not jump the final two fences quite as well as Splash Of Ginge and that probably made the difference in the end. David Pipe’s gelding tackled several competitive handicaps last season when still a novice and things did not really go his way. His new rating of 148 (+4) matches his best figure achieved over hurdles and I would be surprised if there is not more to come from this second season chaser.

Le Prezien lost his place going down the back straight and that left him with a lot to do. He made good headway after the third last but those exertions told late on as his run petered out in the final twenty yards. Like Starchitect, he is a relatively inexperienced second season chaser and his new rating of 152 (+2) moves him to the cusp of graded company (a rating of 152 in the Ryanair Chase would equate to 5th/6th in the past few seasons).

Tully East caught the eye travelling very strongly but a mistake two out effectively ended his chance. He won the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival last season when the ground was considerably quicker that day. It would be no surprise to see him recapture that form back on quicker ground judged on the way he travelled here.

CAMPBELL SOUPER

Thomas Campbell continues to climb the staying hurdle tree after another authoritative success at Cheltenham, writes Martin Greenwood.

Seemingly treading water at around two and half miles at the end of last season, Thomas Campbell has relished the step up to three miles and is now within hailing distance of the top stayers. The 10lb rise I gave him after the October meeting did not stop him from following up and he again travelled well most of the way on Saturday in the worsening conditions.

Previous winner of the race and course specialist Anteros briefly made a fight of it but Thomas Campbell was ultimately well on top. Another 10lb has now been added which puts him on 158, with the potential to be even higher. He has an entry in the Betfair Stayers Handicap at Haydock this Saturday and being an early-closing affair means he can carry a 5lb penalty on top of his then entry mark of 148 and be 5lb well in.

Twenty four hours earlier Henderson was also in the winner’s enclosure after On The Blind Side made it two from two in the 21f Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.

A scorer at Aintree the previous month, he stepped up markedly on that effort to see off some useful sorts in decent enough style, looking better the further he went. Calett Mad was a very disappointing favourite and surely something was amiss; but that does not detract from the likeable impression made by On The Blind Side who is rated 145, a figure well up to the standard of this race.

SHAKIRA LIGHTS UP TRIUMPH MARKET

Apple’s Jade’s sister Apple’s Shakira was strongly touted on the run up to Saturday’s Grade Two Prestbury Hurdle, run in miserable conditions, writes David Dickinson.

Usurping the hitherto top juvenile Gumball for favouritism in the minutes before the off, her backers would have been on very good terms with themselves from the moment she hit the front after the second last. That she was visually most impressive isn’t up for debate, more so the level of ability shown by the filly.

Defi Du Seuil might have won this race in 2016 but looking back further this race has served up its fair share of red herrings in recent times. In this decade Golden Doyen has given a penalty and a beating to subsequent Triumph third Hargam, Royal Irish Hussar has beaten the subsequent Grade One Aintree winner Guitar Pete and even when Sam Winner beat Grandouet, the placings were reversed when they both made the frame. So, in short it is a little early in winter to be setting total store by juvenile results.

Gumball came into this race rated 144. Using him to rate the race would make the winner something extremely special but there are reasons to think that he didn’t give his running. Firstly he made a particularly nasty mistake at the fourth flight, partially doing the splits. Secondly, Speedo Boy, 21 lengths behind him at Chepstow in receipt of seven pounds, got within eight and a bit lengths of him at level weights on Saturday. The 121 rated Eragon de Chanay, the French trained Et Georges (who I had a rating of 120 on pre-race) and Speedo Boy also rated 120 finished close together. Using them Apple’s Shakira has run a figure somewhere in the 140’s, quite some achievement for a filly so early in the season.

By the conclusion of the meeting on Sunday, more evidence was there to suggest that staying wide on the hurdles track was advantageous. Apple’s Shakira had followed a path rather wider than Gumball’s and this added further weight to the feeling that the latter had probably run some way below his best.

When walking the course before Sunday’s racing, the Chairman of the Stewards Panel spotted Wayne Hutchinson walking the track before his winning ride in the Greatwood. Oh to still be a journalist as it really begs the headline ‘Elgin’s pilot uses his marbles!!’

 

[Perpetual]

Xmas Update...

Handicappers Blog | Festive Period
02 Jan 18

WHAT A FAUGHEEN MESS
Champion Hurdle winner Buveur d’Air’s expected and comfortable win in the Grade One Unibet Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day could hardly have prepared us for the upheaval just three days later in the ante-post market for Cheltenham, writes David Dickinson.

The small field event went pretty much as expected in that The New One proved his main rival. The form is hard to rave about, however, given the proximity of Mohaayed and Chesterfield at the line – neither with any pretentions of being genuine Grade One horses.

So, with Buveur d’Air although fit and well not advancing his 169 rating, it was to Leopardstown that all eyes turned for the run of 2015 champion Faugheen. Here is where the script went off-piste as he fluffed his lines, pulling up after dropping back to last going to the penultimate flight and leaving stable mate Cilaos Emery to be denied by the ever improving Mick Jazz.

In the immediate aftermath of this result the Champion Hurdle market took on the guise of a Whitehall farce. In the ensuing confusion, a horse who had finished last in a three mile chase the previous day briefly became second favourite for the Champion Hurdle. Something resembling sanity was resumed only once it was revealed that Faugheen’s career was not over as he happily appeared to be uninjured.

Given the way that the first two at Leopardstown left the accident-prone but highly able Campeador in their wake, I do wonder if the demise of Faugheen has distracted us from a couple of very decent performances.


If that race was tough to get a handle on then Saturday’s Tote-sponsored Mares Listed race at Taunton was impossible. This excellent innovation was being run for a sixth year and the field which featured four mares rated in the 130’s looked well up to scratch. However to see Maria’s Benefit win by 30 lengths despite being eased down was very much out of the ordinary.

If judged through any of the other three 130+ horses in the race, then this is top class form. That is very hard to believe given that this only has Listed status and historically the winner rates in the high 130’s. The overall time compared with the handicap on the card won by Attest, suggests a rating in the 140’s but the split times make for very interesting reading.

Maria’s Benefit was marginally slower to the second hurdle then Rio Bravo (who made the running in the handicap). By the time she jumped the same flight, then the third last, she was over six seconds faster than the handicap. This was a blistering burst, particularly in the back straight and she is clearly very good.

I have come up with a figure of 152 for her performance, a rise of sixteen pounds. Anyone who tries to tell you that their (probably different) figure is the right one might be deluding themselves – this race is just about as difficult as handicapping gets.

Her reported targets are the Mares race at Doncaster and then the Mares Novice at the Festival. My reservation about the latter would be based on Saturday’s run style. She went hard after the first three furlongs or so and was easing down the final half mile. Similar tactics in March would see her doing most of her hardest running uphill.

MIGHT BITE NOW TOP CHASER

At first sight the result of the 32Red King George VI Chase was slightly confusing because of the proximity of Double Shuffle (who went into the race rated 151) and, to a lesser extent, Tea For Two who was on 164. Even allowing for Might Bite idling I could not get him higher than 169 calling the three lengths to Tea For Two as 5lbs.

This made him the lowest King George winner of the last five renewals a pound less than Thistlecrack last year and Long Run in 2012. I am comfortable with this given the apparently massive improvement achieved by Double Shuffle (now 166) and it will be interesting to see how he performs next time. My next thought was to compare Might Bite’s time with the time of the winner of the Kauto Star Chase. Black Corton I had on 155 before Boxing Day and for beating Elegant Escape (150), I kept him on the same rating.

Might Bite ran the same course in a time 2.8 seconds faster and carried 3lb more than Black Corton. The time lapse is the equivalent of 11 lengths = 11lbs. + 3lbs =14. 155+14=169.

Thus using Tea For Two as a guide, comparing Might Bite’s time with that of Black Corton and using the race standards, 169 appeared a sensible figure. I suspect he is capable of better and he will need to be as the Gold Cup is usually won by a 170+ performance.

Meanwhile I have dropped Bristol de Mai back from 173 to 167. Because of the nature of the ground at Haydock I always had some doubt about the validity of his 173 and I now cannot have him superior to Might Bite.

I did find it interesting that in the Racing Post earlier this week, they still have Bristol de Mai as their top jumping horse of 2017 on 185!

MONEY SPINNER

With the prominent players from the 2017 Stayers’ Hurdle falling by the wayside, northern challenger Sam Spinner put himself to the forefront for the 2018 version with a comprehensive success in the JLT Reve de Sivola Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, writes Martin Greenwood.

Sam Spinner has been upped in distance with each start this season and shows better form every time. Impressive when careering home in a competitive handicap at Haydock on his penultimate start, this was an even more taking performance in some ways though the winning margin was nowhere near as big.

Taking up his now customary position at the ahead of affairs, Sam Spinner looked to be going comfortably all the way round and had shaken off everything bar the equally strong travelling L’Ami Serge (still 159) turning in. Not for the first time (and presumably not for the last time either) the latter found absolutely nothing for pressure while the winner looked to have plenty left in the tank.

Five-year standards for this race place this performance anywhere between 153 and 162 with a median and average of those standards in the mid to high 150s. Given the pre-race ratings I have decided to match the 162 suggested as the peak but with an extra 2lb added for style. This makes his 164 the best staying hurdle performance of the season so far.

Further back in the field, both Unowhatimeanharry (now 163) and Lil Rockerfeller (157), second and third in last season’s Stayers, continue to underperform, while current champion Nichols Canyon sadly lost his life after falling at Punchestown.

The main beneficiary at Punchestown was Apple’s Jade who was stepped up to three miles for the first time and made it five wins on the spin. She just got the best of a titanic tussle with pacesetter Supasundae who finished much closer than when the pair met over twenty furlongs at Fairyhouse earlier in December. That had been Supassundae’s first run of the season and with the return to the longer distance clearly suiting, he at least matched the 160 he performed to when to when second to Yanworth at Aintree last April.

Obviously with Apple’s Jade receiving the 7lb mares’ allowance, Supasundae comes out as comfortably the best horse in the race even though a case can be made that the Fairyhouse win of Apple’s Jade was an even better effort.

Given that the 7lb allowance will, of course, be also available at Cheltenham there is very little to choose between Apple’s Jade and Sam Spinner at the moment. The former, though, will undoubtedly also have the Mares Hurdle in her sights.

Later in the week there was a small but select field for the Betfred Challow Hurdle at Newbury. The front pair of Poetic Rhythm and the tail-flashing Mulcahys Hill look up to standard. The race didn’t particularly make for great viewing however, as several were treading water miles from home in what looked very holding conditions. Mulcahys Hill made a valiant attempt from the front but was slowly but surely overhauled by Poetic Rhythm who has risen by a single pound to 148.

 

[Perpetual]

Belated update...

Cheltenham Prospects 2018 | Handicappers Blog
13 Feb 18

ARKLE WINNERS PAST AND FUTURE?

Saturday saw key trials for the championship 2m chase races at the upcoming Cheltenham festival with the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase at Newbury and the Betway Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick. Although each race only had a small field, writes Chris Nash, each produced a winner likely to play a significant role in their races next month.

The Game Spirit saw the seasonal return of Altior, winner of the 2017 Arkle Trophy. We rated him 170 at the end of last season which made him the joint leading novice chaser of the year together with Thistlecrack. Altior resumed where he left off and maintained his unbeaten record over obstacles with an authoritative display.

With only three runners lining up at Newbury it is difficult to know exactly what the form is worth. In handing a comfortable four-length beating to Politologue it is safe to assume that Altior returned with his ability intact. I decided to rate his effort at 164+ and, with him value for plenty more than his bare margin of victory, his official rating of 170 will remain in place. I dropped Politologue from a mark of 165 to 163 after this effort mainly because the Tingle Creek form at Sandown has not worked out too well and it was from this race that he took his mark of 165.

Altior is the current favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Chief amongst his rivals will be Min, who has a rating of 167, and also Politologue. I imagine that last year’s winner, Special Tiara, will also line up – he ran to a figure of 167 last year but has not matched that so far this season. It will also be interesting to see for which race last year’s runner-up, Fox Norton, goes. He has a mark of 168 but also has an entry in the Ryanair chase. The possible participation of Douvan also adds to the interest. He finished last season rated 174 but has not been seen since getting beaten at Cheltenham last year.

The Kingmaker produced a decisive winner in Saint Calvados. He was having only his third run over fences and registered his third win. He had been successful in novice handicap chases at Newbury off marks of 143 and 147 and lined up at Warwick rated 154. He is a bold-jumping front-runner. Not only did he make all but he barely touched a twig on his way round. The form of the race is not the easiest to level with only four horses and wide margins between them; but I think it is safe to say that Saint Calvados progressed again and recorded another career-best figure.

I have decided to rate him 160 after this race which puts him amongst the leading 2m novice chasers of this season. The Irish trained Footpad has a mark of 162 and leads the rankings currently but Sceau Royal on 159, Petit Mouchoir on 157 and Brain Power on 156 are also valid contenders. The Arkle on day one of Cheltenham is shaping up to be quite some race.

RETURN OF THE NATIVE

The Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase had just three runners for the second successive year and it was won by Native River for the second successive year. This confirmed that Native River is fit and well after nearly a year off, says Mark Olley. But with conditions in his favour and against a probable non-stayer in Cloudy Dream we did not learn much else.

Native River came into the race with an official rating of 166 which was achieved when he was an excellent third to Sizing John is last season’s Gold Cup. The Newbury race was not an easy one to assess due to the above couple of points. However the time was 7.4 seconds faster than Indy Five (new rating of 136) winning the novice handicap chase just over two hours later and Native River was carrying 17lbs more; so that was decent. Historical standards for the race suggest a figure in the low 160’s.

Factoring in that information I have his performance figure for this race in the 161 to 166 range. Figures on the BHA website will show 166, but it is largely academic at this stage as I am not planning to change his rating. We will hopefully get a better guide to where he currently stands when he contests next month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Cloudy Dream travelled strongly through the race and was probably going best as they approached two out, but he didn’t get home anywhere near as well as Native River. He ran a similar race behind Definitly Red at Aintree the time before and a return to 2m4f looks in order. His rating drops 1lb to 157, but that is due to the level of the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree in October being altered at the Anglo-Irish meeting held last week.

KALASHNIKOV HAS FESTIVAL IN HIS SIGHTS

On an informative day of Festival clues it was fitting that the day’s big betting race, the Betfair Hurdle, provided a serious Cheltenham pointer, writes David Dickinson.

The open nature of the betting suggested a tight contest but, after the rain throughout the day got into the ground, the frenetic nature of the gallop ensured that was not the case. To say they finished slowly is something of an understatement. The winner Kalashnikov’s time from the third last to the line is around 25 lengths slower than the eased down Whatswrongwithyou achieved in the opening novice hurdle.


So why did the pace end up being so uneven? There were plenty of horses wanting to race prominently. The keen-racing Jenkins, Misterton and Remiluc set the tone and the likes of Knocknanuss and Coeur Blimey could not quite lay up with the leaders. At the first flight in the back straight Silver Streak and his jockey parted company. The loose horse was soon racing enthusiastically, eventually leading the field home. As he passed Jenkins and company jumping the last in the back straight, an over-zealous pace was further increased. At this point, still well over a minute from home, the majority of the field were flat out.

I took the view watching the race that it became a stamina test which the majority failed in extreme circumstances.

It was interesting hearing Kalashnikov’s connections immediately nominate the 2m Sky Bet Supreme as their Festival target. Given that his stamina was what won him this race they might also consider the 2m5f Ballymore Novice as playing more to that strength.

The fact that Kalashnikov and Bleu Et Rouge were able to put clear daylight between themselves and the big field has seen their marks go up by thirteen and eight pounds respectively. Kalashnikov’s sole defeat came in the Grade One Tolworth and it has been well reported that soft ground is not ideal for him. He is very clearly an exciting prospect, wherever he heads come March.

The previous Sunday saw a Taunton handicap win for the admirable Unison. Jeremy Scott’s horse had previous finished third of four to The New One and Ch’tibello in Haydock’s Champion Hurdle Trial. That day he finished eleven lengths behind the 21lb higher rated runner up and beat the higher rated Clyde into fourth place. So did I raise his mark for that? Answer, no. He came into that race with solid handicap form and Clyde put in a notably poor round of jumping. Trying to get the message across to connections that supporting small field conditions races can often be in their best interests is hard indeed; but wins for the likes of Unison won’t do any harm.

 

[Perpetual]

The Cheltenham Festival 2018 | Handicappers Blog
20 Mar 18

MELON PIPPED

In extending his unbeaten run to ten and defending his Unibet Champion Hurdle crown, Buveur d’Air demonstrated his willingness to battle, writes David Dickinson.

Through the winter this had shaped more and more like a one horse race but that wasn’t the case as, despite the lack lustre run of Faugheen, both Melon and Mick Jazz threatened to lower his colours. I have rated his performance a pound below the level he achieved last year at 166. The irony of this is, that for a dual Champion Hurdle winner his standout performance remains last year’s 169 figure in the Betway Aintree Hurdle over half a mile further and this remains his official rating.

It was the best performance of Melon’s career and I now have him on 165 for losing out but in the bravest fashion by only a neck.


The Festival kicked off with the Sky Bet Supreme and a rare reverse for Ireland when Getabird was blown away by old adversaries Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov, first and second in the 32Red Tolworth at Sandown in January. Given the winner’s jumping errors over the final flights I believe that the winning margin of four lengths in the Sandown race is a better guide as to their relative merits and now have them rated 156 and 152 respectively

The Grade 2 Trull House Stud Dawn Run Novice Hurdle produced the most visually impressive winner of the week in Laurina but this was a race in which they went too fast mid race.

I had blogged about my doubts that Maria’s Benefit would be suited by Cheltenham and so it proved, especially as she did not get an easy lead. From turning in, the field was lengths slower than either of the opening races on the Friday. I have moved Laurinar up to a rating of 152 but I do remember that the inaugural running of this race was won in a similar fashion by Limini. She then started a hot favourite for the open Novice at Aintree only to be no match for Buveur d’Air and Petit Mouchoir. My reservation this time around is that this became a stamina test and I doubt that any of the first three home will turn out to be best at two miles.

The clock that told one tale in that Mares’ race it told another in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. On paper, with the smallest field since 1965, this looked a below par renewal. That assertion is very much not supported by the stopwatch. Not only was the race run faster than the following Randox Health County Hurdle but also it is faster run from the second last flight. Whilst accepting that Apple’s Shakira (who got a bit worked up in the preliminaries) and Redicean (who probably wouldn’t want the ground this testing) were disappointing, the Irish raiders were a revelation. I have rated Farclas 157 in victory and, on the clock, I could have gone higher still.

As for the County Hurdle itself, I have blogged this winter about the way we deal with conditions races. Flying Tiger ran here off 140, despite finishing on the heels of Elgin and Call Me Lord in Wincanton’s Betway Kingwell Hurdle. This was latched on to in the betting market but, in the aftermath, connections felt that even this trip is beyond him on such ground.

Had those Flying Tiger supporters only turned their eyes back to Kempton’s Unibet Christmas Hurdle their wallets might be in a better state. In that race Buveur d‘Air 169, beat The New One (then on 163) with less than four lengths back to Mohaayed and then Chesterfield, who arrived rated 139 and 143. So mathematically I could have defended rises of at least a stone for each. My response? I left Mohaayed and dropped Chesterfield by three to 140, below the mark from which won last year’s Scottish Champion Hurdle.


ALTIOR THE CHAMPION

The feature race on day two of the Festival was the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase run over two miles. I thought the race was run at an honest pace, writes Chris Nash, and it looked a very fair test at the trip. Altior started the even-money favourite and duly took the prize but only after looking in a spot of bother after three fences out when he appeared to get outpaced and needed niggling along.


He came good however to be upsides Min at the last before powering clear up the run in. He produced a performance which probably said more about his stamina than his speed. Altior went to post unbeaten in his twelve previous races over obstacles and rated 170. He handed out a seven lengths beating to Min who arrived rated 167 on the back of a career best effort last time out. There were a further eleven lengths back to God’s Own in third who arrived here rated 158.

I have decided to advance Min by 1lb to a mark of 168 which has Altior running to 175 and God’s Own running to 157. The form looks fairly secure and I am quite happy for this to rate a career best for Altior. There is an argument to suggest that the way he was pulling away at the line he could be rated a pound or two higher but I’m happy with a figure of 175 for now. We will see how this form works out and if he can better this effort before the season’s end. In an historical context his winning figure for this race has only been surpassed by Sprinter Sacre (188), Master Minded (186), Moscow Flyer (180) and Sizing Europe (177) this century.

The two mile novice chasers had their championship race on day 1 in the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy. A small but select field went to post – there were only five runners but amongst them were four of the five highest rated novice chasers seen over the trip this season.


This was a strongly run race and almost certainly too strongly run with both Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados seemingly intent on making the running. They blitzed along in front and raced clear of the others before, unsurprisingly, paying the price for their early enthusiasm. Victory went to Footpad who arrived as the highest rated runner in the field (162) and started as the 5/6 favourite. He let the leaders get on with it and sat a very respectful distance off them but picked them up quite readily to lead on the home turn and ended up skipping away from them to win pretty much as he pleased. He crossed the line fourteen lengths ahead of Brain Power (156 pre-race) with Petit Mouchoir (157 pre-race) a further three-quarters of a length away in 3rd.

Footpad’s performance was visually most impressive but from a form point of view that must be tempered by the way the race was run and the small field size. I decided to give him a figure of 166 for this which has Brain Power running to 152 and Petit Mouchoir running to 151+. Brain Power raced in last and stayed on up the hill to pick up the pieces from his toiling rivals. Petit Mouchoir was probably the second best horse on the day, given his early exertions, and I’m quite happy to leave him with his rating of 157 and, therefore, ahead of Brain Power who I have trimmed to 155.

The disappointment of the race was Saint Calvados who arrived with a mark of 160 (our second highest rated) but seemingly didn’t enjoy being taken on for the lead and was beaten a long way from home. I have lowered his rating to 158. In an historical context this winning figure has only been surpassed by Sprinter Sacre (169) and Un De Sceaux (168) this century and Altior ran to 165 when winning this race in 2017.

RUSSELL AT HIS BEST

The Grade 1 Ryanair Chase was a fascinating race to watch, notably the masterful jockeyship of Davy Russell on winner Balko Des Flos says Mark Olley.

Last year’s winner Un De Sceaux raced in almost exactly the same style as twelve months ago. He was keen and pulled his way into the lead at the fifth fence from where he set a strong pace. At the third last, just when Paul Townend must have been hoping to get a slight breather into him, Davy Russell kicked into the lead on Balko Des Flos and went for home ensuring this race was a real stamina test for the distance and that Un De Sceaux had nothing left for the end of the race. Both horses finished relatively slowly, understandable considering the tactics, but Balko Des Flos had this won from some way out.

After consultation with Irish handicapper Andrew Shaw, we have agreed a rating of 169 for Balko Des Flos (up 3lb from a pre-race 166). This is a shade below the race standard of 170, is a pound higher than Un De Sceaux achieved in winning the race last season and matches the 169 of Uxizandre in 2015.

This leaves Waiting Patiently heading the 2m4f Anglo-Irish rankings on a figure of 170 but hopefully we will see both of them again before the season ends.


The JLT Golden Miller Novices’ Chase was run more steadily than the Ryanair and that resulted in Shattered Love finishing the race in a stronger fashion. In her preceding two races she won a Grade 2 novice at Cork over 2m and a Grade 1 novice at Leopardstown over 3m, so she is clearly very versatile trip wise.

As a mare she received a 7lb weight allowance from the geldings, so that needs to be added back onto her new rating of 153 (up 9lb from a pre-race 144) if it is to be compared to previous winners like Yorkhill (161) last year and Black Hercules (159) in 2016.

Five year old Terrefort continues to progress. He was rated 151 after his win in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles in February and is up another 2lb to 153. Benatar ran an excellent race in third, he kept on very strongly considering how keenly he raced early on and, if suffering no ill effects from the injury he sustained here, must win more races.

BLOOM SHINES BRIGHT-ON PENHILL


For those who don’t know, Tony Bloom is the main man behind Brighton & Hove Albion’s premiership status, writes Martin Greenwood. Tony obviously likes his horses as well, and with Penhill he has enjoyed Cheltenham Festival success for the second year on the trot.

The amazing thing is that Penhill as only had one run in between these successes and that was way back in April at Punchestown. Willie Mullins is inundated with plaudits on a monthly basis but surely this ranks as one of the greater achievements.

Obviously Penhill was unexposed having stepped straight out of novice company but it was hard to tell as he cruised through the race in the Stayers hurdle, after favourite and confirmed front runner Sam Spinner had taken them along at no more than a so-so gallop and jumping none too fluently. To be fair Penhill wasn’t the only one who had travelled strongly throughout and there were a host of chances turning in. Eventually the field began to spread out a little by the time they approached the last, and it came down to a shootout between Penhill and Supasundae (who had also scored at Cheltenham in 2017), with the former outstaying the latter by two lengths.

Robbie Power, the rider of Supasundae, suggested the overnight rain put paid to his chances but it’s hard to argue that his mount hasn’t run somewhere near to his pre-race 164, though of course there is a case that Supasundae would ideally be suited by a slightly less test, especially around Cheltenham. Rating the race is tricky since the field wasn’t stretched out at the finish due to the moderate pace.

It will rate one of the lower versions in recent times, along the lines of Solwhit in 2013 and Cole Harden in 2015. Certainly the time comparison with the Pertemps is worthless such was the pedestrian gallop in the later race, while the standards, unsurprisingly given the bunched field, are suggesting an average and median only in the low 160s. Allied to this the fact that several lower rated horses are close up and almost certainly flattered means it is impossible to be positive about the ‘bare’ form. Short term, and hoping both Aintree and Punchestown give me a much stronger direction, I have increased Penhill to 164, the same mark as both Supasundae and Sam Spinner. The last named is probably worth another chance when he makes it a proper test of stamina.

Moving on to the novice races in my division, the better of the two races appears to be Samcro’s success in the Ballymore Baring Novices’ Hurdle. With only three of the fourteen runners in single figures in the betting it suggested a race lacking strength in depth but the result suggests the first six home were above the norm compared to recent renewals. Samcro (155), Black Op and Next Destination (both 150) were already of a standard befitting such a race going in and they duly filled the first three places.


Samcro had looked a monster in Ireland and he certainly didn’t do anything to suggest he is anything other than a very smart hurdler/future chaser in the making. Smoothly getting in contention, Samcro quickly put the race to bed and then seemed to doss in front but still had nearly three lengths to spare over Black Op (now 152), who had made a horlicks of the last.

I am in no doubt that Samcro had more in the tank and have given him an extra two pounds for the ‘style’ of the win. Even that could undercook him and there is plenty more to come down the line. Recent race standards point to low 150s for the winner but Samcro’s 157 puts him on a par with The New One’s performance in this race in 2013. It would be no surprise to me if Samcro doesn’t surpass that figure very soon.

Nicky Henderson seemed to hold the aces in the three mile Albert Bartlett Spa Novices’ Hurdle on Friday with all four of his runners in with some sort of chance, especially Santini and Chef des Obeaux. The latter ran abysmally and was never in contention. He wasn’t on his own, though, with numerous horses never getting involved and performing way below the form they had been showing leading up to the Festival.

The few prominent racers seemed to go hard enough in the conditions and paid the price although Fabulous Saga deserves great credit given he was still leading approaching the last. By that time 33/1-shot Kilbricken Storm had taken over the lead and going after the leader earlier than the rest paid the ultimate dividend because none of the closing bunch could lay a glove on him. We can only wonder what would have happened had they closed the gap earlier.

An average winner usually comes out high 140s to low 150s, and I have decided on 149 for Kilbricken Storm. Ok Corral (146), Ballyward (144) and Robin Waters (140) have also notched personal bests, albeit only marginally, while Santini deserves another chance to confirm his pre-race 150 given how Black Op (second to Santini last time) performed earlier in the week.

 

[Perpetual]

And their Gold Cup thoughts...

NATIVE RIVER AND MIGHT BITE SHOW THEMSELVES TO BE QUALITY GOLD CUP HORSES | Head of Handicapping Blog
20 Mar 18

In my twenty years in charge of jump handicapping at the BHA I have been fortunate to witness some outstanding achievements at the Cheltenham Festival. Big Buck’s winning four consecutive Stayers’ Hurdles, Best Mate winning three consecutive Gold Cups, Kauto Star regaining the Gold Cup after losing it to Denman the previous year, A P McCoy carrying Synchronised to victory in 2012.

I am struggling to remember a race which left me as breathless as the 2018 Timico Gold Cup. It is very rare in any 3 mile+ chase for the horses who jump the first fence in first and second place to still be there at the last fence and then at the finishing post. Has it ever happened in the Gold Cup before?
Having watched the replay a number of times I still think Might Bite is going to win at the second last. He would have been a very decent winner of the race, equal in my view to Coneygree (172) in 2015. The final uphill furlong on soft ground with heavy patches found him out but it was still his best ever performance.

Anibale Fly showed himself to be the most thorough stayer of the Irish trained 3 mile chasers by keeping on to be a fast finishing third. Before the race I had Road To Respect on 168 and Andrew Shaw the new Irish Handicapper had him a pound lower. I have to agree now that he was right and I have dropped him to that figure although I only have him performing to 165 at Cheltenham. As a result Anibale Fly is raised to 168, which puts him 9lbs. well in for the Randox Health Grand National.

The effect of having a performance figure of 168 for Anibale Fly is to put Native River on 176. Only Denman, Imperial Commander, Long Run, Bobs Worth and Kauto Star x 2 have been higher in my time in the job. It puts him just ahead of Kicking King (175) and Best Mate (175) who in my view was unlucky not to be rated higher as he only ever faced opposition either past their best or inferior to Might Bite.

Another link with Best Mate is how few (2) times this year’s winner has run in the season. Best Mate twice only ran on three occasions in the season when he won his Gold Cups but has there ever been a year when the winner was only having his second run?

Returning to the Randox Health Grand National there are now five horses that are technically well in. Anibale Fly (+9), Bellshill (+7), Shantou Flyer (+5) Rathvinden (+4) and Tiger Roll (+2).

 

[Desert Orchid]

Looking through the new ratings last week it was easy to what kind of thought processes the handicapper was going through in arriving at his marks but I took a much more conservative line.

“Take out Might Bite and this could be a good handicap.” This pre-race summary is the overriding context of my low ratings for this race. It was a wonderful spectacle at the time because the commentary made it sound like the two protagonists were serving up a savage pace. It seemed like we were witnessing one of the all-time great Gold Cups. In fact, it was anything but, although the winner’s new OR of 176 makes it look good. I won’t be at all surprised if in time we see that mark drop again.

Native River is a thoroughly admirable beast but he was rather beaten up here by Johnson in his determination to see off Might Bite on whom de Boinville showed commendable restraint when it was clear his partner had no answer to the heavy ground up the hill. This exaggerated the winner’s margin of victory as well as the third’s closing effort.

I can see where the handicapper gets his 176 for the winner from. Road To Respect and Djakadam have run relatively close to their marks and makes that possible. We also know Might Bite is top class. However, I’ve watched the race a few times now. The front two got to dictate their own pace on virgin ground. I suspect this seduced the others into thinking they must be going fast and as a result they were held up off a moderate pace against better horses so were always going to struggle to get into it. Djakadam has proved more than once he doesn’t stay this trip. He’s less likely to have stayed in this ground. He was in the group just behind the pace and probably ran as well as could be expected but I can’t have him running to his good ground best here, which is what Native River’s 176 implies. Definitly Red maybe had a harder race than it looked last time or maybe just didn’t fancy another slog in a bog. Either way, he was never running his race. It wasn’t the pace that beat him. Anibale Fly in third is a good handicapper, nothing more. He’s probably a few pounds better than his pre-race 159 rating but he’s the one who, for me, is a key guide to the form. He’s as close to Native River as he should have been. Road To Respect didn’t stay but it looks like he’s been taken as one of the key guides, which would make Native River’s 176 logical. I can’t have that.

Everything else was trying to come from poor positions off a moderate pace in ground being churned up ahead of them. Saphir Du Rheu probably got nearly the worst ride of the entire field. Not only was he held up but he was also kept wide, racing in the ground that had been badly churned up the previous day. Twiston-Davies was presumably riding to instructions as it was a carbon copy of the ride he gave the horse last year but that was on decent ground. I suspect the horse needs to see his fences and he was never going to be ridden in the pack so I also suspect Nicholls and Twiston-Davies had decided before the race they were just going to let him do what he could for a circuit before saving him for Aintree. It’s a ride I can understand but I cannot for the life of me understand the ride Edwulf got. I’m still angry about it.

So all in all, I’m going low with the bare ratings but I half-expect to adjust them upwards by a pound or two in the coming months but I’ll be surprised if I end up getting them near the ORs.

 

[Perpetual]

The best AW Championship sprint winner yet

Whilst this year’s renewal of the 6f Betway All-Weather Sprint Championship attracted the smallest field in its brief history, what it lacked in quantity was more than made up for in quality, says Stewart Copeland.

Six of the eight runners had already achieved a level of form on a par with the average winning performance in the race, headed by Gifted Master on 112. He achieved that rating after being successful in the 6f listed Golden Rose Stakes at Lingfield back in November.

Plenty of action had unfolded on the all-weather sprint scene since that win and the best recent form was boasted by the revitalised Kachy, who was made favourite on the back of that. His latest success was in the 6f listed Cleves Stakes over course and distance in early February where he recorded a rating of 110, confirming he was back to the form that saw him finish second in the 2016 Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.


However the spoils on the day were to go elsewhere, and it was the sole French challenger City Light who took the prize back across the Channel. Winner of a fast track qualifier at Chantilly in early March, City Light had shown himself better than ever with that win and more than confirmed that view here.

Always travelling strongly just off the sound pace set by Gifted Master, he was produced to challenge over a furlong out and soon put the race to bed. He came home a length and a half clear of Kachy, with last year’s winner Kimberella, putting up a creditable defence, a further length and a quarter back in third.

In assessing the race I have took the view that City Light has produced the highest winning performance we have seen so far in this race. I have credited him with a performance rating of 114 which betters the 112 achieved by Pretend in 2015. That means I have Kachy reproducing his 110. As for Gifted Master, he weakened out of contention in the straight and clearly failed to give his running back from his break. He ran to 98 but remains at 112 for now on the all-weather.

The other sprint final on the card was confined to three year olds, the 6f 32 Red 3 Year Old All-Weather Championship Stakes. Although it may have lacked the strength in depth of the older horse race, it produced an exciting finish nevertheless.

The race itself was a much more tactical affair with only a modest gallop until past halfway and several horses racing keenly. Analysis of the sectional times in this race compared to the older horse sprint race show how much quicker they were finishing in this race which effectively became a dash for home from 2f out.

In such circumstances the place to be is often on or near the pace and the favourite, Corinthia Knight, was given an excellent ride. Tracking the leader throughout, his jockey kicked on approaching the straight for a decisive race winning move. Despite a host of challengers, he always looked like holding on for a half-length success from Lake Volta.

As for the form of the race, the field finished largely in a heap so it’s difficult to take too positive a view of it. Corinthia Knight went in to the race rated 105 and did not need to improve on that. In fact I only have him running to 99 given the proximity of too many rivals in the low/mid 90s to justify any higher.

One to note from the race is Breathless Times who was a strong finishing fourth after suffering none too clear a passage. Nothing produced a quicker final 2f sectional and it will be surprising if this lightly-raced colt doesn’t improve further on his current rating of 96 achieved here.

Le All Weather

Funny Kid in landing the Marathon in a most thrilling finish was another winner from across the channel. The third French-trained winner and by far the longest priced success on the card came in the Mile Championship when Lucky Team flew past five horses in the final furlong to win going away at 40/1.

Pre-race, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, the William Haggas trained Second Thought looked to hold an outstanding chance of extending his unbeaten streak on the AW to seven as his rating of 109 put him 2lb clear of Arcanada and 6lb+ in front of the rest of the field. Even he couldn’t hold the sweeping run of the winner and went down by a length and a quarter. Arcanada finished last after setting a strong pace and the trainer could offer no explanation to the Stewards for the poor run.

Given the proximity of the likes of Goring (3[SUP]rd[/SUP]: pre-race 101 but on a roll having won his previous four), King Malpic (4[SUP]th[/SUP]: 96) and Mr Scaramanga (5[SUP]th[/SUP]: 101) it is hard to believe that Second Thought has run anywhere near 109 and I have settled on a performance of 104 for the time being, which suggests that Lucky Team has posted a career best of 107 in winning the race.

This falls short of the last two winners of the race – Sovereign Debt (110) last year and Captain Joy (112) in 2016 – but rated better than Grey Mirage (103) in 2015 and on a par with Captain Cat’s 107 in the inaugural running in 2014.

As far as domestic handicap marks are concerned Second Thought is brought down 2lb to 107 after a reassessment of his previous race and Goring is adjudged to have posted another personal best and goes to 104.

A feature of the concluding Easter Classic (10f) was the strong early pace as Star Archer (pre-race 93) and Utmost (105) duelled in front being closely followed by Mr Owen (107) with all three ultimately paying the price for their early exertions.

Victory Bond (105) travelled noticeably well in mid-division, was still on the bridle when delivering his challenge inside the final two furlongs and quickly put the contest to bed when quickening two lengths clear approaching the distance – always in full control after that despite being run down a little close home. He goes back up a pound to 106 for this success.

It is hard to get him much higher given the close proximity of Abe Lincoln (3[SUP]rd[/SUP]: pre-race 99 and beaten off 97 previous start) and the exposed Pactolus (beaten off 99 in handicap company previous 4 starts) in fourth.

Top rated Master The World (108) was given a lot to do from rear and finished best of all but was never doing enough to catch the winner and went down by half a length, running to 103 on my figures. With Mr Owen (5[SUP]th[/SUP]), Utmost (6[SUP]th[/SUP]), Battle of Marathon (7[SUP]th[/SUP]) and Petite Jack (8[SUP]th[/SUP]) also all running below the level of their Winter Derby performances, we have dropped the level of that race by a pound so Master The World goes down a pound to 107.

From a historical perspective Victory Bond’s performance is rated on a par with Grendisar in 2016 and superior to Grandeur (103) in the first running in 2014, but inferior to last year’s winner Convey (111) and Tryster (115) in 2015.

Up at Newcastle Jeremy Noseda’s Gronkowski continued his progression with a fourth straight win in the Listed 32Red Burradon Stakes. He was little more than workmanlike but I have him improving another couple of pounds to a mark of 103 – touted as a possible Kentucky Derby candidate he is going to have to progress a fair bit more in my opinion to be a live candidate for that.

Did you notice Nivvo?
One of the less obvious problems of AW Champions Day, writes Matthew Tester, is what about Nivvo?

This Irish-trained mare finished tenth in the Fillies & Mares final over 7f; but she was only 0.82 seconds behind the winner which means 5.1 lengths. The first six home were all rated in the 90s. Although Nivvo had won her last two starts she went into the race with an Irish rating of just 68.

On my figures she ran to a mathematical 87. Racing Post thinks that it should be 89. But what do you do with the handicap mark?

Experience says that she has probably not suddenly improved by that much; but to leave her on 68 would seem likely to gift her another handicap win. That would be unfair to whoever was opposing her in her next race.

The Irish Handicapper has raised her by only two to 70. My choice would be to see her run once in effect under a penalty, up six off 74. Perhaps she was completely flattered and should stay on 68. Or perhaps she has continued on the upgrade and should go up by more than six. What would you have done?

Hawkbill in control

To call Charlie Appleby’s Hawkbill disappointing since winning the Coral Eclipse Stakes at Sandown as a three year old would be a shade harsh, writes Adam Barnes; but he certainly had not progressed from the level achieved there prior to arriving in Dubai this winter. However, his win in the Group 2 City of Gold Stakes – when overcoming a notably wide trip (travelled 17 metres further than stablemate and runner-up Frontiersman according to Trakus data) – was quite taking.

He duly stepped up on that form when belatedly doubling his Group 1 tally in the Longines Dubai Sheema Classic on Saturday albeit with the aid of the run of the race from the front. Hawkbill was able to set a steady early pace and control the tempo throughout. The likes of top-rated Cloth of Stars pulled far too hard to show his best form and Japanese challenger Rey De Oro was caught further back than ideal. He had little chance the way the race developed.

That said, Hawkbill still quickened up well and was comfortably holding his nearest pursuers in the closing stages to score by three lengths. In terms of the ratings level of the race, historical standards point towards the low-mid 120s. There was enough depth to the race overall to go towards the top end of that range if desired but, given the winner’s profile coming in (rated 118) and the tactical nature of the race, I have been slightly cautious and called Hawkbill on 122 for now. It’ll be interesting to see if he can back up this performance in a more conventional contest.

Turf of the rising sun

With Japanese-trained runners having won three of the previous four editions of the Dubai Turf, writes Andrew Mealor, it was no surprise to see Japan well represented in the latest renewal with five of the fifteen runners. These included the last two winners, Real Steel and Vivlos.

That pair ran with credit but had to play second fiddle to comfortable winner Benbatl who provided Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor with his sixth win in the race. Janoobi set a solid pace as he raced in a clear lead and Benbatl was perfectly placed at the head of the main group under Oisin Murphy. The pair went to the front under 2f out and the result was in little doubt from there. He came home three and a quarter lengths ahead of Vivlos (who had to do plenty of running from rear). Real Steel dead-heated with another of the Japanese runners, Deirdre, for third.

Although well fancied, Benbatl still looks to have improved a fair bit on his previous form in winning so decisively. Race standards point to a rating in the 122/123 area, and I have gone for the higher of those figures because it ties in with the best recent form of Real Steel (116) and Deirdre (112). Vivlos couldn’t quite repeat the 117 she produced in the race last year but her performance figure of 113 still represents her best run since then.

Although some remove from the 130 produced by 2014 winner Just A Way, a winning figure of 123 is more than respectable for a winner of this race and sits bang on the 10-year average. The Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot looks a logical next target. The average winning performance in that race over the past 10 years is 124 (123 for past five years), though Cracksman (130) may set a higher bar this year.

One of the other Godolphin runners, Blair House, had beaten Benbatl into second when landing the Group 1 Jebel Hatta earlier in March. Benbatl didn’t get the run of things that day (stuck wide from a high draw), but this time it was Blair House (116) who found the race going against him. He was dropped in from a high draw and met some trouble when trying to close in the straight, his jockey also reporting that the gelding hung left throughout. The race also didn’t pan out ideally for the John Gosden-trained Monarchs Glen who didn’t settle in a wide position and was found to have been mildly lame. He was very progressive at the end of last year, posting a figure of 115 when winning the Group 3 Darley Stakes at Newmarket.

 

[Perpetual]

The Grand National Festival 2018 Handicappers Blog
17 Apr 18

The Grade 1 JLT Melling Chase was a tremendous race to watch as Politologue and Min battled out a thrilling finish, writes Mark Olley.

Min has raced mainly over 2m with the exception of a three runner race at Gowran Park in November. The big question was would he stay 2m4f. He raced pretty keenly in the early stages but was still travelling ominously well when he went into the lead approaching the second last fence. You certainly could not say that he didn’t get home but he was just beaten by a stronger stayer in Politologue. Min’s rating stays unchanged while Politologue’s moves to 169 (+8).

Politologue raced around 2m4f early in his novice chase career, but has been kept at 2m for the past year. He certainly seems more at home at tracks like Aintree, Ascot and Kempton and for whatever reason he has not really performed at Cheltenham. This was a career best run and his 169 rating matches that achieved by Fox Norton when winning this race last year. It is still some way adrift of the 188 achieved by the mighty Sprinter Sacre in 2013.

Balko Des Flos who had looked so impressive when beating Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham dropped out tamely after making the running. This clearly wasn’t his form and it would be no surprise if that Ryanair effort had taken more out of him than anyone realised.

The Grade 1 Big Buck’s Celebration Manifesto Novices’ Chase was won by Finian’s Oscar.Victory for Colin Tizzard’s gelding looked unlikely as they entered the home straight but Robbie Power began to coax a run from him and as they jumped the last momentum was clearly on his side and he powered up the run-in to win going away. Pre-race this did not look the strongest renewal and Finian’s Oscar’s new rating of 154 (+3) is the lowest winning rating for some years.

Rene’s Girl jumped superbly and looked like winning between the last two fences. She had previously been winning mares chases and this was a terrific effort stepped up into Grade 1 company. Her rating remains unchanged on 144 and is equivalent to a figure of 151 with her mares allowance added back on.

Special mention must also go to Ultragold who won the Randox Health Topham Handicap for the second successive year. In between those victories Colin Tizzard’s heroic 10yo has also finished runner-up in the Grand Sefton Handicap and he clearly relishes the test of Aintree’s unique National fences.

Santini the equal of Thistlecrack

The best hurdling performance across the three days, writes Michael Harris, came in the Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle on Saturday.
Identity Thief was last seen when a staying on fourth in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, persuading connections to try a belated step up in trip here and that move has brought about a career best from the 8yo. Always travelling strongly off an even gallop, his stamina was put to the test by Wholestone, who has been very consistent all season in graded hurdles, but he battled on well to win by five lengths with the pair pulling clear.

Wholestone was rated 161 pre-race, a figured he achieved over an intermediate trip at Cheltenham back in January. It is possible he is slightly better over that shorter trip and at Cheltenham, where his form figures read 12113123. I have him repeating the 158 he ran to in the Stayers Hurdle meaning that I have Identity Thief running to 163, 1lb behind Cheltenham winner Penhill (164). Hopefully we will see both of them at Punchestown in what would be an intriguing clash.

Sam Spinner (down 1 to 163) was not at his most fluent in the jumping department and faded, but the form of his Ascot success earlier in the season was franked in the feature race on Thursday with L’Ami Serge emerging victorious in the Betway Aintree Hurdle.

L’Ami Serge had been unsuited by a slow pace in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham but, in stark contrast to that race, a strong pace was set by Diakali which was perfect for the winner who is a strong traveller. He was produced late under a confident ride and had too much for Supasundae on this occasion, reversing form from Cheltenham. The runner-up was dropping back in trip here which looked a good move having not quite seen out his race at Cheltenham; but Clyne (up 1 to 153) looks a better guide to the form and this looks a marginal career best for him.

With last year’s winner and dual Champion Hurdler Buveur d’Air missing the race, this looked a below average renewal and L’Ami Serge has been raised 1lb to 160, meaning he is the lowest-rated winner of the race since 2002. The most comparable performance in recent years would be with The New One who ran to 161 in the 2014 renewal.

In the novice division, Santini bettered his Cheltenham form under a more prominent ride to win the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. It was a race in which most of the principles raced no worse than mid-division and so the run of Roksana (142) from off the pace can be given plenty of credit. She emerged from the chasing pack to throw down a challenge to Santini but he found plenty for pressure and won cosily. I have rated him 152 which makes him an above average winner for the race and equal to Thistlecrack when he won back in 2015. Santini has a very likeable attitude and looks set to be a leading novice chaser next season.


The Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle produced an exciting finish and a very game winner in Black Op (152). He had chased home Samcro at Cheltenham and overcame a series of mistakes in the home straight here to hold off Lostintranslation (149) who was stepping up in trip and relished it. I have Black Op running a little below his Cheltenham form and performing to 150, which is 1lb lower than Finian’s Oscar in this race 12 months ago. Back in January, Black Op had gone down narrowly to Santini at Cheltenham after a late mistake arguably cost him the race. After their respective spring campaigns they are both now rated 152 and look the best of the British novice staying hurdlers this season. On The Blind Side (down 1 to 152) was top rated going into the race and was just losing his position when a mistake at the second last ended his chance. Given the strength of his Sandown win back in December he is well worth another chance. Western Ryder (145) also made a bad mistake at a crucial part of the race and he continues to shape like we have yet to see the best of him.

A Dream winner

This season’s Juvenile Hurdlers might not have been over blessed us on the numbers front but there do look to be some exciting horses going forward, writes David Dickinson. We Have A Dream had to miss Cheltenham but his return to action in the Grade 1 Doom Bar Anniversary Hurdle saw him run out a ready winner completing a five-timer in the process.

Whilst stable companion Apple’s Shakira again ran like a horse who needs further than two miles, We Have A Dream showed a good turn of speed to win by seven lengths from the resurgent Gumball who had looked a star early in the season but rather lost his way over the winter months.

As a race, this is hard to put a figure on but two horses who were involved in the juvenile handicap at the Festival, Nube Negra and Padleyourowncanoe, both seemed to again run well, at least until the latter made a bad mistake when upsides the leader three out. Take their running at face value and this has to be high class form and I have rated the winner running to 158. The debate will now be about whether had would have scored at Cheltenham had he been able to take his chance. Farclas, for winning the JCB Triumph Hurdle, earned a rating of 157.
Lalor might have flopped in the Betfair Hurdle but he provided an emotional success for the Kayley Woollacott yard in the Grade 1 Betway Top Novice Hurdle.
Any enthusiasm for his chance pre-race would have been more based around his Bumper success at the meeting last year than his previous exploits over hurdles; but this was not as hard a race to put a figure on as it first appeared.

Mind’s Eye and Midnight Shadow both suggest that runner up, Vision des Flos, had reproduced his Cheltenham running. That would have Bedrock running to 145, only a pound more than when going close in the juvenile at the meeting last year. BHA handicappers are not allowed to take Bumper form into account for hurdle races (and as you can see I haven’t) but a check of last year’s Bumper does confirm that Lalor’s new rating of 149 is believable. The next five home in his Bumper that day are currently rated between 135 and 147 over the smaller obstacles.

Mouchoir blown away

The only 2m Grade 1 chase at the Aintree festival was the Doom Bar Maghull Novice Chase run on Saturday analysed by Chris Nash.
With the leading 2m novice of the season (Footpad rated 166) absent it looked a good opportunity for Petit Mouchoir who had already chased him home a couple of times including in the Arkle at Cheltenham last time out.

Petit Mouchoir arrived rated 157 and started as the odds-on favourite but was unable to cope with Diego Du Charmil who swept by him going to the last and won by two and a half lengths. A further six lengths away in third was Shantou Rock (arrived rated 148) and a neck behind him was Lady Buttons (arrived rated 140 but got the 7lbs mares allowance in this). The third and fourth look to provide a reasonable guide to the form. So this has Diego Du Charmil running to 157, Petit Mouchoir to 154, Shantou Rock to 148 and Lady Buttons to 141. The 157 figure for the winner fits in reasonably well with the race history and standards. The “average” winner over the last 5 years has been rated 160, but that includes Douvan who recorded a figure of 169 when winning in 2016 which obviously skews the average. Applying race standards to this renewal gives a figure for the winner between 157 and 159. It rates a career best for Diego Du Charmil and, being lightly raced, he is obviously open to further progression. It will be interesting to see what he can achieve in open company next season.
[h=2]It may be a classier race but staying is still the name of the game | Head of Handicapping Blog[/h]18 Apr 18


A few years ago the BHA, in conjunction with Aintree, brought in a new qualification rule for the Randox Health Grand National. To qualify, a horse has to have finished in the first four in a chase over three miles or further. Non-stayers are a potential risk both to themselves and to other horses in the latter stages of the race.

However to run well or win the race appears to require much greater stamina than running decently over a bare 3m. Over the last three years four races stand out as being important in the career of horses who run well in the Grand National. They are the National Hunt Chase and the Cross Country Races at Cheltenham, the Irish Grand National and the Betfred Classic at Warwick.

Just look at this year’s first seven home:

• Tiger Roll (winner) had won the National Hunt Chase over 4m and the Cross Country at Cheltenham over 3m 6f.
• Pleasant Company (2nd) had been a staying on ninth in last year’s race after a momentum stopping error at the 25th fence which is Valentine’s Brook second time round.
• Pleasant Company ridden by Ruby Walsh (L) leads Saint Are ridden by Davy Russesell over an early fence during The 2017 Randox Health Grand National
• Bless The Wings (3rd) had won the Cross Country over 3m 6f and been second in the Irish National over 3m 5f.
• Anibale Fly (4th) had been a staying on third in the Gold Cup over the stiff 3m 2.5f furlongs of Cheltenham.
• Milansbar (5th) had won the Betfred Classic over 3m5f at Warwick and been second in the Midlands Grand National over 4m 2f.
• Road To Riches (6th) had been 3rd in the Gold Cup in the past.
• Gas Line Boy (7th) had been fifth in the Grand National last year.

It was the similar last year:

• One For Arthur (1st) had won the Betfred Classic at Warwick,
• Cause of Causes (2nd) had won the National Hunt Chase and the Cross Country,
• Saint Are (3rd) had previously been second in the race.
• Blaklion (4th) had just been second in the Haydock Grand National Trial over 3m 4f.

In 2016 it was very much the same story:

• Rule The World (1st) had been second in the Irish Grand National.
• The Last Samuri (2nd) had won the Grimthorpe at Doncaster over 3m 2f.
• Vics Canvas (3rd) had been second in the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m 5f.

Classy and unexposed new kids on the block do not win the Grand National. Hennessy winners like Many Clouds, Ulster Grand National winners like Pineau de Re and horses beaten a head in the Scottish Grand National like Auroras Encore do.

Of course it helped both Tiger Roll and Anibale Fly this year that they were technically “well in” for the race after performing to a higher level after the weights came out. Far more important was their proven stamina at further than 3m. After all the rain I was relieved that the winning distance this year was only a head but, for the second time, I just missed out on the much yearned for dead heat!

Afterwards some people were complaining about the domination of Irish trained horses but, when I looked back, I was happy with the weights I allocated to them all two months ago. After-timing is a great fashion in British racing so I just hope that anyone who complained had availed themselves of the prices that were available for the first five back in February. You could get 40/1 Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly was 33/1 while Pleasant Company, Bless The Wings and Milansbar were all on 66/1.

On Monday I consulted with my Irish counterpart Sandy Shaw and we both agreed that despite the close finish, to some extent Tiger Roll was getting a bit lonely out in front. As a result I have put the winner up 9lbs to 159 and the second up 7lbs. from 148 to 155 thus calling the head as 2lbs. compared to the traditional 1lb.

The horse I was most proud about this year was actually Bless The Wings. He is clearly a much better Cross Country horse where I have him on 154 compared to his rating of 136 over regulation fences. I was in a dilemma back in February when I did the weights as 154 was clearly inappropriate whereas 136 would not get him into the race. In this one race I have special dispensation to differ from published ratings so I added a nominal 7lbs. penalty to his park rating and he ran off 143. He more than justified that decision.


So remember next year when you are trying to find the winner, form at the bare minimum of 3m from a horse on the up will not be enough. You need a horse that stays further and has been around the block a little. Never under-estimate the Cheltenham
Cross Country races. Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes, Silver Birch and Balthazar King are the proof as they are all intelligent, athletic horses. Size does NOT matter!

 

[Desert Orchid]

On Monday I consulted with my Irish counterpart Sandy Shaw

Did they have a wee sing-song?

I hope one isn't the other's Puppet on a String, rather that they go Hand in Glove with each other. All we need now is for the French handicapper to be called Monsieur Dupont...

 

[Perpetual]

Newmarket QIPCO Guineas Festival | Handicappers Blog
09 May 18

Two huge steps forward

Saxon Warrior gave Aidan O’Brien a ninth Qipco 2000 Guineas on Saturday and an incredible 300th Group/Grade 1 success and, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, this son of Japanese superstar Deep Impact looks certain to contribute further to that tally.

Rated 2nd in last year’s European 2yo rankings with a mark of 119, behind only stable-companion U S Navy Flag (122), Saxon Warrior has improved on that with a performance of 121 by running out a convincing one and a half lengths winner at Newmarket. I am confident there is more to come once he steps up in trip.

My level for the race included a surprise with Tip Two Win in second taking a huge step forward from his pre-race mark of 106 to a new figure of 117. This is the mark that is also attributed to third-placed Masar (pre-race 118). The fourth-placed Elarqam has improved 4lb from 112 to 116.

I am happy at this stage that the figures stack up relatively neatly with the winner’s stable mate Gustav Klimt (6th) reproducing his current mark of 112, James Garfield (7th) being a pound below his Greenham winning performance of 112, which is backed up by Newbury 4th Raid (8th) reproducing his 108 and the front running Murillo (9th) performing to his pre-race level of 107.

Despite Masar going into the race at 118 I have dropped him a pound to 117 which may seem a little strange for finishing 3rd in a Guineas. It should be pointed out that his impressive success in the Craven was difficult to evaluate with any degree of confidence and his figure of 118 was more of a short term “holding figure” until we saw him in a more competitive and reliable contest. I find it hard to believe that his Craven performance should be considered superior to his Guineas performance and therefore am now calling them both 117.

From a historical perspective, a winning performance of 121 is well up to recent standards. Eight of the last eleven renewals have now seen winning performances rated between 120 and 122. In the nineteen runnings of the race since the turn of the century, twelve winning performances fall within that bracket. The last five winners have run either 120 or 121 with Saxon Warrior’s effort being considered a pound superior to those posted by Churchill (2017) and Galileo Gold (2016) and on a par with both Gleneagles (2015) and Night of Thunder (2014).

In regard to Aidan O’Brien’s nine winners of the race, eight of them performed to a mark between 119 and 121 with the only exception being Footstepsinthesand (116) in 2005.

Turning to the Qipco 1000 Guineas, winner Billesdon Brook may have gone off a 66-1 shot after nine previous starts in which she never exceeded a mark of 99 but there appears no obvious fluke to the performance. I have raised her to a new mark of 115 which leaves her a little shy of the marks recorded by Winter (116 in 2017), Minding (118 in 2016) and Legatissimo (116 in 2015) but superior to the winning efforts of Miss France (112 in 2014) and Sky Lantern (111 in 2013) in terms of recent history.

The big question of course, is can she do it again?

Defoe Scores Again

The Jockey Club Stakes often turns out to be a small-field, tactical affair, and this year’s renewal was no exception; but it nevertheless produced a worthy and interesting winner, writes Adam Barnes.

Count Octave took the field along at just a modest tempo and the complexion of the contest changed quite suddenly when James Doyle made a quick move on Red Verdon inside the final half mile. Defoe began to gradually lose his prominent position not long after but his astute jockey, Andrea Atzeni, was allowing his mount, on the drying ground and Rowley Mile undulations, to find his stride in his own time. The hot favourite duly began to motor as they passed the two furlong pole, reeling in the enterprisingly-ridden Red Verdon and coming away for a decisive success.

Defoe came into the race on 115 and I have rated him as running to that figure again which is at the lower end of the range pointed to by historical standards for the race. I didn’t see fit to push the level any higher given not only the proximity of pre-race 107 Red Verdon (now 108), but also the question marks over the others, Count Octave likely needing more emphasis on stamina while Master The World and Khalidi had each not lived up to their handicap mark last time.

Defoe may not have needed to strictly improve on the form of his stylish Group 3 John Porter Stakes win to land this Group 2. That he was able to run up to his best in adverse circumstances – neither the tactical nature of the race nor the drying ground necessarily ideal – means this can certainly be regarded as a reputation-enhancing performance. It increases the likelihood that he can be very competitive once stepped up to the highest level. It may not be long before he does that as his trainer, Roger Varian, mentioning the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh as a possible next target.

 

[Diamond Geezer]

BHA handicappers have each nominated one to watch next season

David Dickinson: Maria's Benefit
Martin Greenwood: Topofthegame
Phil Smith: Definitly Red
Sandy Shaw: Laurina & Great Field
Mark Olley: Benatar
Chris Nash: Sceux Royal
Michael Harris: Master Tommytuckers

 

[Grasshopper]

That's some insight. Sandy Shaw seems to be a right judge.

 

[Maruco]

That's pretty apt. I'm pretty sure you reckon Great Field can win Eurovision after it wins the Champion Chase! :lol:

 

[Perpetual]

Investec Derby Festival | Handicappers Blog
05 Jun 18

Masterful Masar

Saxon Warrior may not have succeeded in his attempt to complete the second leg of a possible Triple Crown bid, but the 2000 Guineas form still came to the fore in this year’s Investec Derby, writes Adam Barnes.

Most people who say ‘the Guineas is the best trial for the Derby’ probably haven’t actually done the research to back up their assertion, and to be fair nor have I gone back in time to prove or disprove such a theory for this blog, but either way we can probably agree that this year’s 2000 Guineas did indeed turn out to be an informative Derby trial, with Saturday’s 1-2-4 at Epsom having been 3-5-1 at Newmarket.


The Derby can sometimes be a messy affair, but thankfully this year was pretty clean, and the form looks solid. Aided by the strong pace, the leaders reaching the path where they turn into the straight (over three furlongs out) around 2 seconds quicker than all-the-way winner Dash of Spice in the following course-and-distance handicap, the first four home came from midfield or rear, with Masar (121, from 117) always going well and full value for his length-and-a-half victory. Dee Ex Bee (118, from 110) had every chance, while Roaring Lion (117; stays on his Dante rating of 118), up in trip with stamina to prove, looked to just run out of petrol late on having looked like being runner-up at one stage, and connections’ plan to drop back in trip looks logical. That comment also applies to Hazapour, who was keen early racing close to the strong pace and still cruising when challenging after three furlongs out, but he got tired when it mattered, looking a non-stayer and shaping a good deal better than the bare form.


As for Saxon Warrior, some talked about the tricky draw in stall 1 and his slight stumble from it, others said he just ran flat, while I tend to largely agree with those who identified his apparent discomfort on the track, looking unbalanced and reluctant to really let himself go coming down the camber, after also not enjoying the clearest run prior to that. He remains a horse to be excited about for the season ahead, appealing as likely to put this behind him in due course.

Masar’s new rating of 121 is informed by the solid time (around 30lb quicker than now 98-rated Dash of Spice in the handicap once weight carried/weight-for-age is accounted for, and a speed figure pushing towards 120 against other round-course races on the card), historical standards (five-year range of 119-122 pointed to by the shape of this year’s form), and the pre-race levels of most of the beaten horses, nothing from third down holding down the level decided on. That rating puts Masar higher than recent Derby winners such as Wings of Eagles and Ruler of the World, but a little way behind the likes of Golden Horn and Australia. It seems we may see him next in either the Irish Derby or back down in trip in the Eclipse at Sandown.

A ‘Golden Highway’ Oaks?

It’s probably fair to say this year’s Investec Oaks didn’t have the strongest feel to it beforehand, but post-race the form doesn’t look too shabby, the field coming home nicely strung out with the ‘right’ sort of horses filling the frame behind ready winner Forever Together, who built on her Chester promise in no uncertain terms.

The race was run at a fair pace, though Bye Bye Baby didn’t go as hard as it might have seemed visually, reaching the path as they turn into the straight nearly 2.5 seconds slower than Salouen in the Coronation Cup, with Forever Together ultimately passing the post 1.9 seconds slower than Cracksman just over an hour earlier. Once the weight-for-age allowance for three-year-olds is taken into account there was little between the two times, though it needs bearing in mind that the ground was drying out all time.


A key moment in the Oaks came early in the straight, when Donnacha O’Brien shrewdly made a move for the apparently favoured ‘Golden Highway’ stands rail – a conclusion hard to avoid as the card went on. In making that move O’Brien ensured that he and his mount spent most of the straight racing close to the rail, and just as crucially prevented William Buick and Wild Illusion, who was stepping up half a mile in trip, from doing so. Forever Together proved much the strongest in the closing stages and came home four-and-a-half lengths clear, though there’s certainly a possibility that things would have been closer in different circumstances.

In terms of putting a number on Forever Together’s win, it might appear quite simple to look at the pre-race ratings of Wild Illusion (113), By Bye Baby (109) and Magic Wand (104) and come to a conclusion of around 119-120. However, with the impression that the winner enjoyed something of a tactical advantage over her rivals, the time relative to the Coronation Cup and other races nothing too special once drying conditions and the possible stands rail bias enjoyed by the winner are considered, as well as historical standards generally pointing towards a lower level (a range of 115-119 in the last five years, which an average/median of 117), I’ve rated Forever Together on 117 for now, which also happens to be in line with the 10-year average for an Oaks winner. That means I strictly have all the other horses in the first four performing slightly below their pre-race marks, though they arguably lose little or nothing in defeat given the circumstances. Hopefully we’ll see a rematch between the first two at some stage.

Cracksman Not So Cracking

What is to be done? A question posed by Chernyshevsky in 1863, Lenin in 1902, and also by horseracing handicappers when 130-rated Cracksman and 110-rated Salouen passed the post almost together in this year’s Investec Coronation Cup.

Upon the completion of Friday’s contest most racing fans would most likely have concluded something along the lines of: laboured Cracksman clearly wasn’t at anything like his best; Salouen seems to have run the race of his life but was he flattered? Windstoss ran alright; the rest flopped. Same here, pretty much. But where, oh where does the handicapping answer lie?


As touched on above, the Coronation Cup time – partly aided by the sound pace set by Salouen – reads relatively well against the likes of the Oaks (rated at 117) and the good ten-furlong handicap won by up-and-comer Ajman King (now rated 108), particularly given it was run on slightly softer ground than those races (drying conditions) and there was also a relative lack of ‘Golden Highway’ action close to the stands rail here. Though what little action there was in that regard may well have been decisive, the evidence that mounted through the afternoon increasingly making it look crucial that Dettori switched Cracksman to the rail for the final furlong, before finally getting on top of Salouen close home.

Historical standards in the last five years point towards a range of 119-122 for this year’s winner. With the likes of Idaho and Hawkbill failing to fire, Cracksman clearly not himself (perhaps not in love with the track but, probably more crucially, also later reported to have banged his head in the stalls) and the overall muddling feel to the form, I came to a conclusion of 119 here for Cracksman (stays rated 130), with Salouen up 8lb to 118, those levels also happening to broadly tie in with what Windstoss achieved on his latest outing in Germany. Whether Salouen can repeat this level another time remains to be seen, though it’s worth remembering that this was only his second start as a four-year-old, and perhaps these new forcing tactics will prove the key to him, too.

 

[Grey]

That's what I like to see, a handicapper quoting Lenin, the man who gave the perfect advice to all readers of form:

To accept anything on trust, to preclude critical application and development, is a grievous sin; and in order to apply and develop, “simple interpretation” is obviously not enough.

 

[simmo]

That's what I like to see, a handicapper quoting Lenin, the man who gave the perfect advice to all readers of form:

To accept anything on trust, to preclude critical application and development, is a grievous sin; and in order to apply and develop, “simple interpretation” is obviously not enough.

clivex would be turning in his Ford Mondeo.

 

[Maruco]

And then lambasting the useless t*ssers that service it :lol:

 

[Perpetual]

Royal Ascot 2018 | Handicappers blog
26 Jun 18

Head scratching for the Head of Handicapping
The week started off with a real “head scratcher” with a shock result in the Queen Anne, writes Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

In a race that normally gives a major clue as to who will be crowned the best older miler in Europe during any given year, this renewal saw the two lowest-rated horses in the race finish first and second. 33-1 shot Accidental Agent (1st: pre-race 109) edged out 20-1 shot Lord Glitters (2nd: 107) in a bunch finish.

There is no obvious answer to putting a figure on the race with any confidence at this stage. Normal form analysis using previous performances provides a wide variance of figures ranging from 121 at the top end through to 108 at the bottom end so I had a good look at previous runnings of the race for guidance.

Given the relatively low ratings of the first two home, plus the 112 rated Century Dream finishing less than a length behind in fourth my gut feeling is that this year’s renewal would be at the lower end in comparison with other years.

In the previous five renewals the lowest winning performance figure was 117 recorded by Declaration of War in 2013, whilst the lowest recorded figures for those colts placed 2nd to 5th during the same period are 115 (2nd), 114 (3rd), 115 (x3 for 4th) and 110 (5th).

Using these figures as a guide I have settled upon figures of 116-115-114-114-113 for this year’s race, suggesting the performances of Lord Glitters (2nd: 115), Lightning Spear (3rd: 114), Century Dream (4th: 114) and Yoshida (5th: 113) fit relatively neatly with those historical figures. It will now be fascinating to see if the form stands up in the top mile races in the second half of the season.

If the Queen Anne produced a shock result for the betting public, the St James’s Palace made up for it with favourite Without Parole taking his career record to four wins from four runs with a workmanlike half-length success.

This was a little easier to work out with both form analysis and recent levels of the race throwing up similar conclusions. I have Without Parole, tackling Group company for the first time, improving 10lb to a new mark of 119, whilst runner-up Gustav Klimt is also credited with a career best at 118. This puts Without Parole’s performance on a par with Barney Roy’s last year and slightly better than Gleneagles figure of 118 in 2015.

French challenger Wootton was given a fair bit to do from rear and looks to have run a couple of pounds off his very best whilst Kings Shield (pre-race 107, performed to 108) and Gabr (108, performed to 107) give the race a solid look from a form perspective.

Given his progressive profile I would fully expect Without Parole to improve again on this figure but he will need to if he is to get the better of impressive Coronation Stakes winner Alpha Centauri if ever they meet.

In breaking the course record for her six lengths success I believe she posted the best Coronation winning performance since my personal records begin in 1999. Her figure of 122+ beats the 121 posted by Indian Ink in 2007 and the 119 recorded by Sky Lantern (2013), Ghanaati (2009), Lush Lashes (2008) and Crimplene in 2000.

There is a distinct possibility she might be under rated at 122 given the nature of her performance but, with English 1000 Guineas winner Billesdon Brook (4th), O’Brien challenger Clemmie (5th: following up a disappointing effort in the Irish 1000 Guineas) and French challenger Coeur de Beaute (6th: possibly unsuited by quick ground) all failing to show their best, I would prefer to see her confirm the level either against the older fillies (possibly in the Falmouth) or against the colts later in the season before raising her any higher.


The Coventry conundrum

Calyx cemented his place as the best around at the moment in winning a memorable Coventry Stakes, writes Graeme Smith.

The field split into two groups with Calyx racing on the opposite side to the next three finishers. All four had looked high-class prospects before the race so it is encouraging that they pulled well clear of the rest.

It could easily be that Calyx deserves more credit than the bare winning margin of 3lb suggests having pulverised the group on his side by six and a half lengths. There is also a chance he was better placed close up than Advertise and Sergei Prokofiev, however, given the speed figure was a shade shy of the performance at 107. As such, I have trusted the bare result for now and hope to get a better handle on these horses as the summer rolls on.

Calyx is the leader of the class at 113. It is no surprise he’s proved himself smart so early in his career as his wide-margin debut success at Newmarket ten days earlier had been most striking in terms of the closing sectional he clocked. 113 puts him around the average level for recent Coventry winners with Advertise (110 but not yet eligible for an official rating), Sergei Prokofiev (109) and Vange (106) all above average for their respective positions.

The Norfolk attracted ten runners and Shang Shang Shang’s (102) narrow winning performance rates towards the lower end of recent winners even if you factor the fillies’ allowance back in for comparison against winning colts. That puts her on 105 for comparison which is the same figure that Soldier’s Call ran to in winning the Windsor Castle in more decisive fashion.

With the first eleven finishers in the Queen Mary covered by little more than two and a half lengths, the figures of the principals were always going to be low. Signora Cabello is certainly tough and very likeable but her winning performance of 100 is the lowest I have on record for the Queen Mary. The next lowest since 1990 are the 102 performances from Gilded in 2006 and Langs Lash in 2008. That’s not to say some of those involved won’t do better another day, possibly at 6f+.

The Albany was almost certainly the better of the fillies’ races. The margins involved meant Main Edition’s 106 performance still rates a little shy of the average but nothing like as below par as the Queen Mary.

The emphasis looked to be firmly on stamina in the Chesham and race standards pointed to a winning performance of 106 from Arthur Kitt. That figure may well prove fluid, however, with very little 7f form having been available to factor in.

With Ascot over the start of the nursery season is almost upon us. Entries for the first nursery close this Friday and the full list of two-year-old handicaps marks has now been published in the usual places.

The Merchant and the Angel

It’s not often the start of a race grabs as many headlines as the finish, writes Stewart Copeland, but that certainly felt the case in this year’s 6f Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes.

Last season’s champion sprinter Harry Angel was sent off favourite to notch his first success at the Berkshire track on his fifth attempt but his race was over before it even started. Having got caught up in the stalls, he lost all chance with a very slow start and that was that. Let’s hope he fully recovers from this unfortunate episode and we get chance to see him again at his brilliant best.

This year’s race attracted a truly global field – no less than five different countries were represented in the twelve strong field – and it was one of the Irish-trained contingent that prevailed in an exciting finish.

Formerly trained in Australia, Merchant Navy had advertised his claims with success in the Group 2 Greenland Stakes at the Curragh last month posting a rating of 117. He prevailed by a fast diminishing short head from the French trained City Light – impressive winner of this year’s All Weather Sprint Championship at Lingfield – with Bound For Nowhere flying the flag for America a further three quarters of a length back in third.

The responsibility for publishing rating on these horses rests with their respective countries rather than the BHA. Therefore in assessing the race I liaised with my Irish counterpart and also sought the views of fellow international colleagues around the world.

We collectively took the view that Merchant Navy had run to a career best rating of 119, which is bang on the standard we’d expect for the Diamond Jubilee winner. That means City Light, who I had running to 115 at Lingfield, has improved his rating to 118. The third Bound For Nowhere reproduced his pre-race rating of 116 confirming the view he is much improved since we last saw him on these shores running fourth behind Caravaggio in last year’s Commonwealth Cup.

Aside from Harry Angel, if there was another unlucky horse in the race it was The Tin Man, last year’s defending champion and again the pick of the British runners. He was just looking to improve his position when short of room 2f out, causing him to lose ground and momentum for a few strides. It is to his credit that he ran on strongly for fourth, finishing a neck behind Bound For Nowhere. But for that it is reasonable to suggest that he would have been at least third and may have even pushed the first two close.

The other Group 1 I dealt with was the fourth running of the 6f Commonwealth Cup. The introduction of this race has been a resounding success and this year’s renewal produced the biggest field to date with twenty two runners.

The race had a wide open look to it beforehand with the ratings being headed by Sands of Mali at 116, winner of last year’s Gimcrack at York and more recently the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. He was denied by Eqtidaar and, arguably, by the draw. The field split with the majority coming down the centre and a smaller group coming down the stands’ side. At the two furlong pole it was clear the centre group held sway. Eqtidaar emerged from that pack to prevail and, despite drifting to his left throughout the final furlong, held on by half a length from Sands of Mali.

Sands of Mali fared best of those in the smaller group and the overriding impression was that he was at a disadvantage being drawn away from the stronger pace in the centre.

This renewal is some way below the heights achieved by Muhaarar and Caravaggio, 121 and 120 respectively, with Eqtidaar posting a rating of 114, up from his pre-race rating of 107. He is a lightly raced individual in the hands of a great trainer and there is every likelihood of more to come from this progressive individual.

Proving a point

The only 5f race for older horses at Royal Ascot was the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes, handled by Chris Nash.

It was billed as a battle between Battaash and Lay Aurelia. We had been there before as last year’s Nunthorpe at York had an identical build up; and Marsha came and won the race. This time it was Blue Point who took the honours. The field raced in one group, the pace was honest and none of them found any serious trouble in running so it should prove to be reliable enough form. Battaash pinged the stalls and set the pace but had no answers when Blue Point swept by inside the final furlong.

Blue Point has a decent record at Ascot but was largely untried at the 5f trip. This was his first Group 1 victory and I have rated it at 120 which is, unsurprisingly, a career best. In an historical context over the last ten years this only ranks behind the figure of 122 allotted to Lady Aurelia when she won this so decisively last year. In being beaten 1¾ lengths, Battaash ran a figure of 114 – he arrived rated 123 based on his win in the Abbaye last year. That form has taken several knocks since so I have lowered him to 122.

That obviously has him higher than Blue Point but my faith in him being the best 5f horse in Europe remains. It is possible he might be at his very best on slightly softer ground. MABS CROSS was a further neck behind Battaash in third and ran a figure of 110 – that is a career best for her and her profile remains progressive. The next meeting for the main protagonists in this race might be at either Goodwood (in the Group 2 King George) or at York (in the Group 1 Nunthorpe) although both Blue Point and Battaash are entered in the July Cup at Newmarket over 6f next month.

The Gold standard

The Ascot Gold Cup was a fascinating and exciting race, says Matthew Tester, and there should be more to come from the winner. But there are also doubts about the race.

Take nothing away from Stradivarius whose bravery in having a shoe ripped off a furlong from home but still out-battling Vazirabad was thrilling. But connections of Vazirabad said that the horse comes with one run and was not up for a fight. It was also his first race ever on faster than Good and the impression has been that they have been choosing their targets to avoid quick ground.

Torcedor in third was only a head away and was rated 115 before the race, Stradivarius was 118 and Varizabad was 117.

I have left the first two on their ratings and raised Torcedor a couple to 117. However, Stradivarius was the youngest, the least experienced and the most likely to improve. 118 under these circumstances suggests that there may be more to come and he is clearly the one they all have to beat in the staying races for the rest of the year.

Wand turns the tables

Mark Olley says that the pick of the mile and a half performances at Royal Ascot was Magic Wand in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes.

Magic Wand was a decisive winner of the Cheshire Oaks at Chester in May beating the unlucky-in-running, and subsequent Oaks winner, Forever Together. That race was on Good ground and those positions were then reversed on Soft ground at Epsom.

On fast ground for the first time at Royal Ascot, Magic Wand was a different proposition. She powered clear for an impressive four length win. She was always well placed under Ryan Moore and came well clear in the final furlong. I called the four length winning margin 7lb and have her running to a figure of 115. As she is trained in Ireland her Official Rating will be published there and will be 114 as they valued the winning distance at 6lb.

From an historical perspective this is the highest winning performance in the Ribblesdale since Princess Highway (117) in 2012 and the second highest this century.

Wild Illusion finished in front of Magic Wand in the Oaks. She ran another fine race here but had the positions decisively reversed on this quicker ground. We have Wild Illusion performing to 111 at Epsom and again at Ascot and that is now her new rating – down 2lb from the 113 she achieved when winning in France as a 2yo.

Sun Maiden won a novice stakes at Salisbury by twelve lengths prior to Ascot. She came from further back in the race than the first two and this was a run full of promise. Her opening handicap rating is 106 and I cannot believe that we have seen the best of her yet.

The Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot on Saturday saw a fine win by Crystal Ocean. He was a class above his rivals, especially with Idaho disappointing, and did not have to run to his rating to win.

I have him performing to 118 and his rating remains unchanged at 122. Red Verdon moves from 109 to 113. Although this figure has a degree of uncertainty to it, he was as high as 114 in 2016 and as this was only his second career start on quick ground so I have credited him with it for now.

 

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The Irish handicapper has rated Latrobe 115 for his Irish Derby win, up from 103.
That the first six horses finished within 5 lengths of each other seems fair enough.
The ground was so lively that a shock result of sorts was expected a la Zagreb, Grey Swallow, Weavers Hall and the rest.
Latrobe was Williams' Melbourne Cup horse for this year and his handicap rating makes that race a possible target still.
Amazing how DeeEx Bee did not act on the going but such is life; his race was over after a furlong or two.
Saxon Warrior needs to regroup or another painting may find a new home.

War Front progeny absolutely love fast ground.
While an awful lot of them need tongue ties the ones that don't can race on well into old age as Red Avenger showed yesterday.