The thoughts of the handicappers.

I believe the handicapper is more or less adjusting the mark for being a little low with first two races of the season, also I would say a most people would agree he deserves a similar rating to Lostintranslation whom he proved superior last season over the intermediate trip. I agree with Archie over the rise given to Marracudja that just ridicules and will result in even smaller fields for the big graded races.
 
That's the problem with handicapping. It's all a hack to get to the rating you want.
 
As much as I love Defi, he's no more than a mid 160's horse. There is absolutely no way he's a 170 horse. As for the handicapper having him running to that mark on Saturday, it's a complete and utter joke. At best I can just about get the run up to 160, and if I was being fully objective I have it at 158.
 
I suspect I'm a wee bit guilty of undervaluing Defi but that probably goes back to his largely disappointing earlier season.

I don't think it should be forgotten that he went into his Triumph rated 155. That's pretty high when you read what's being written about Goshen who's only rated 145 or so.

Last season he beat LIT in the JLT and the latter has been strongly tipped for the Gold Cup.

I don't think we can discount the idea that he still wasn't fully over Cheltenham when he lost to CPS in the spring at Punchestown but this season he's seen of good horses like Politologue and UDS (twice).

I wouldn't be rushing to diss him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I suspect I'm a wee bit guilty of undervaluing Defi but that probably goes back to his largely disappointing earlier season.

I don't think it should be forgotten that he went into his Triumph rated 155. That's pretty high when you read what's being written about Goshen who's only rated 145 or so.

Last season he beat LIT in the JLT and the latter has been strongly tipped for the Gold Cup.

I don't think we can discount the idea that he still wasn't fully over Cheltenham when he lost to CPS in the spring at Punchestown but this season he's seen of good horses like Politologue and UDS (twice).

I wouldn't be rushing to diss him.
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I think he is a bit of a good thing in the Champion Chase but he won't be any shorter than he is right now on the day.
 
Simply The Betts +9 (149)
Imperial Aura +7 (143)
Cepage +1 (155)
Spiritofthegames - No change
Lalor - No change
Santini +8 (171)
Bristol De Mai -No change (170)
Top Ville Ben - No change(164)
Harry Senior +9 (144)
King Roland +8 (141)
Protektorat +5 (144)
Lisnagar Oscar +6 (146)
 
That's very generous towards Cepage.

Those 2.5m Cheltenham hcap chases are no gimmes. Had there been another early closer in the near future he'd have at least a 5lb penalty.
 
More

John Constable -3 (120)
Phoenix Way +8 (141)
Lily The Pink +5 (103)
Endless Flight +12 (114)
Kilbricken Storm -1 (142)
Mister Fisher +5 (153)
Lady Buttons +4 (150)
Ballybreen+8 (88)
Main Fact +11 (115)
 
Definitely being saved. Not something you particularly associate the Tizzards with but he's an out and out plot.

I suspect they'll drop him into one of the last qualifiers at Exeter, Haydock, or Chepstow and he'll sneak into a qualifying place. Off 141 he might give JP some worries given he may still be a 150+ horse that is proven over course an distance.
 
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Maruco said:
Definitely being saved. Not something you particularly associate the Tizzards with but he's an out and out plot.

I suspect they'll drop him into one of the last qualifiers at Exeter, Haydock, or Chepstow and he'll sneak into a qualifying place. Off 141 he might give JP some worries given he may still be a 150+ horse that is proven over course an distance.
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I have him tracked for such instance, and will probably take some 33s on offer if he gets and entry in one of these. Glad I weren’t the only one thinking it.
 
The Pertemps is the plan. He said he wanted to run him in the qualifier last week but the owners wanted to give him another shot in the Cleeve 'just in case'. Otherwise known as we'll run him in the Cleeve and get a couple extra lb off before finishing sixth in the qualifier.
 
Are there many qualifiers left? Was trying to find a schedule there online, but could only get the dates/venues for 2019 Calendar.
Can't find dates/schedule for the qualifiers in 2020 this side of the festival. Anyone have a list?
 
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Looked like the winner in his first race in which I was on, but he died on finish. His runs have been too bad to be true for me, so crossed my mind if this was the target. Cheers, I’ll take some 33s now whilst it’s still around.
 
Just checked last year and there was Musselburgh, Exeter, Haydock, Punchestown and Chepstow after last week's Huntingdon qualifier.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Kilbricken Storm looks gone to me.
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As did I. But I urge you to watch his run bsck on the 13th December at Cheltenham. Travelled like the winner and went odds against in running before dieing on the run in.

There is still a horse in there
 
Or be ridiculously well handicapped Darren. I'm not sure I agree with that anyway. He's only run on good or good to soft four times. In those races he's run well three times and flopped once. The one time he flopped was in the middle of a run of races where he was clearly out of sorts because something was bothering him, probably his wind.

In my opinion they delayed the op as part of a strategy to get his mark to something that can win them a couple of big handicap pots, including one at the Festival. An op at the start of the season and three or four quiet runs so he peaks with the right rating at the Festivals, without getting the handicapper too interested beforehand. They know at his best he'd be a mid 150's horse with nowhere to go. Essentially just below what it takes to win an open Grade 1. Also add to that he clearly doesn't like fences, so it makes sense to get him well handicapped as the only viable alternative. In fact I'd say off 141 he's potentially fantastically handicapped. The alternative is run him on his merits and have an 8/9 year old with nowhere to go other than a day out for the owners.
 
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