The thoughts of the handicappers.

The November Meeting 2019 Handicappers Blog
19 Nov 19

Gold Cup compensation for Happy Diva

The Grade 3 BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase is the highlight of Cheltenham’s November meeting and as usual it looked a very competitive race on paper, writes Michael Harris…
Happy Diva (up 6 lb to 149) has proven to be one of the most consistent horses in training over the last couple of years and arrived here off a career high rating of 143, having been raised a pound for finishing second to the re-opposing Guitar Pete at Wetherby on her first run of the season. Unfortunate when brought down four out in a dramatic renewal of this race twelve months previously, she again travelled strongly through the race and was able to fend off the determined challenge of Brelan d’As (up 5 lb to 143) up the hill.

The key moment of the race came two fences from home with the fall of Slate House at a time when there was little to choose between the front four horses. He had made a few errors earlier in the race but was travelling up smoothly to challenge at the time. Having watched the replays over and over, I found it difficult to split him and the winner. My assessment of the race is that Slate House would have beaten Brelan d’As and possibly Happy Diva, but not for certain in the case of the latter. As such, I have raised him by 6 lb (to 153), the same rise as the winner has received, ensuring that the pair would meet on the same terms in a handicap next time.

Our aim is to give every horse a fair and equal chance on their next start. While it may seem punitive to not only fail to complete but to also receive a weight rise, it would go against any handicapping principle to simply ignore the likely outcome. For more information on the aims of handicapping and how it works in British racing, please visit our Guide to Handicapping.

Warthog (third, remains on 130) gave a bold showing from the front, whilst in contrast Belami des Pictons (down 1 lb to 145) was hampered by a faller in the early stages and was doing all his best work late on. He hasn’t made it to the track very often in recent years but this was an encouraging return, especially with a step up in trip likely to suit.

Thyme relishes the Cheltenham hill

Having been rescued from Friday’s abandoned the fixture, the Ballymore Hyde Novices’ Hurdle kicked off Saturday’s bumper card with a smart effort from the unbeaten hurdler Thyme Hill. Andrew Mealor assesses his performance…

Third in the Champion bumper last term, Thyme Hill has immediately been thrown in at the deep end over hurdles and hasn’t let his connections down with two Grade 2 wins in little over a month. The form of his Persian War success had already been given a boost by fourth-placed Diomede Des Mottes, who went close off a mark of 131 (now rated 137) in a Pertemps Qualifier at Aintree last week, and Thyme Hill himself probably improved a good chunk on that form in defying a 5-lb penalty in the Hyde.
Third at Chepstow – beaten just over four lengths at level weights – was Some Day Soon. He reopposed on 5 lb better terms in the Hyde but was beaten five and three quarter lengths in fourth this time, finishing well clear of the remaining four runners. A line through him suggests a figure of 147 for Thyme Hill at Cheltenham, and that sort of level is also supported by the wide-margin debut success of the third, Happygolucky (137).

The slight nag is the runner-up Champagne Well. He had a more exposed look than most in the field having run five times last season, which he ended rated 134. However, his win in a well-contested novice over the same course and distance at the Showcase meeting had already suggested that he’s an improved horse this term and I’m happy in the short term to credit him with some further progress (+4 to 141), especially as he had to overcome a slight stumble 2 out.

As things stand the level of the Hyde sits just above where historical standards suggest, and Thyme Hill’s 147 is the best winning figure in the race since Coneygree in 2012.

The Hyde has proven something of a mixed bag in recent times – last year’s winner Coolanly hasn’t won again since – but twice in the past five years the race has thrown up the winner of Newbury’s Challow Hurdle, notably in 2014 when Parlour Games landed both races. That Christmas Grade 1 looks the obvious next target for Thyme Hill and he’s already bang on standard (the average winning rating for the Challow over the past five years is 146).

Hot on Thyme Hill’s heels, in ratings terms at least, is the Hobbs yard’s other winner on Saturday, fellow novice hurdler Jatiluwih, who produced a smart effort to readily defy a mark of 137 in a handicap over the same twenty-one furlong trip later on the card. He has an unusual background for a novice hurdler having raced ten times over fences in France for his former yard. Unbeaten in five runs in Great Britain (all over hurdles), Jatiluwih is now rated 146 following a 9 lb rise.
 
Cyrname proves his class in epic duel | Handicappers Blog
26 Nov 19

A much anticipated clash between the two highest rated horses in Britain was the feature event at Ascot in the Grade 2 Christy 1965 Chase and the race fully lived up to its billing, writes Michael Harris…

Many eyebrows were raised last year when Cyrname was given a rating of 176 following a dominant Grade 1 success at Ascot, making him the highest rated horse in Britain, and he went into the race as an underdog against 2m champion Altior, who was officially rated 1 lb behind on 175.

It is rare that two such high profile horses meet at this stage of the season, so it was great for the sport to see them both run and seemingly give their running on the day, too. Cyrname’s style of running ensured that this wasn’t a falsely-run race and it was an intriguing duel throughout with the winner jumping well and able to find extra gears late on to maintain his lead all the way to the line, despite a late rally from Altior.

Visually, and on the clock, there is nothing to suggest this form is unreliable and I have raised Cyrname by another 1lb to 177 (to reflect the winning margin of two and a quarter lengths), with Altior remaining on 175.

With his class now established, the challenge for Cyrname going forward is for him to show he can perform to the same level away from Ascot. Personally I believe the removal of the hood and the added maturity of the horse have been the biggest factors in his improvement through 2019. It is worth noting that prior to his string of Ascot wins the best form he had shown in his career had been when successful twice at Kempton as a novice chaser, and I see no reason why he would not be able to show this level of form there.

As for Altior, I thought he ran a cracking race and I would not have any stamina doubts about him going forward. In running to 175 on the day, I have him bettering the form he showed when winning the Champion Chase last year. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat.

One other notable Chase performance last week was from Capeland in the Gerard Bertrand Hurst Park Handicap at Ascot. Capeland had been forced through the wings of the final fence – and subsequently disqualified – by rival and stablemate Diego du Charmil three weeks previously, but he comprehensively turned that form around over the same Ascot course and distance on Saturday.

The race was run at a strong pace and that meant the runners were well spread out at the finish in the prevailing testing conditions. Capeland clearly handled them well and came right away for a wide margin win. His rating moves up 10 lb to a career high of 153.

Translation speaks the right language

The fact that Lostintranslation moved into the elite bracket of staying chasers probably didn’t come as a complete surprise to many, writes Martin Greenwood…

Now successful on both his starts at around 3m, Lostintranslation left his previous bare form behind in defeating hat-trick seeking Bristol de Mai in the Betfair Lancashire Chase at Haydock on Saturday. Make no mistake, it was a victory entirely on merit.
While Bristol de Mai can’t be considered a top-drawer chaser, he is a very likeable and capable horse who was unbeaten in his four previous visits to Haydock, including the previous two editions of the Betfair on ground varying from heavy (by 57 lengths) to good, good to soft in places. It’s hard to argue at this stage that he didn’t show his form this year either, enjoying himself out in front but ominously stalked by the strong-travelling Lostintranslation up the home straight. The pair soon pulled miles clear of the other two runners. Although Bristol put up his usual brave show and battled hard and genuinely, he was overhauled by Lostintranslation who went on to score by a length and a half, with the impression left that there was something still in the tank.

Over the last five years of the Betfair Chase the peak winning performance has been 172. I have put Lostintranslation above all those on 173, with the promise of even more to come, while leaving Bristol on his pre-race mark of 170. The only other chasers currently rated above Lostintranslation are Cyrname (177), Kemboy (176), Al Boum Photo and Altior (both 175). With stamina questions regarding Cyrname and Altior (Kempton’s sharp three miles notwithstanding), the current problems with Kemboy’s syndication and Al Boum Photo not due out until the New Year, I think it is fair to say that Lostintranslation is very much in pole position as things stand in this season’s staying chase pecking order.

High-class return for If The Cap Fits

Did the latest Coral Ascot Hurdle, a Grade 2 over an extended 19f, unearth a genuine threat to Paisley Park’s staying crown? Gordan Markham examines the form…

The Coral Hurdle looked a strong renewal on paper. The last two winners – Lil Rockerfeller and If The Cap Fits – were joined in a select field of six by Mares’ Hurdle winner Roksana, progressive handicapper Le Patriote and the 160-rated If The Cap Fits. Only the 140-rated Blu Cavalier (who went off 66/1 and finished last) looked a genuine outsider.

If The Cap Fits and Roksana both carried Grade 1 penalties and the market (and pre-race ratings) favoured Call Me Lord, who had signed off last season with a high-class effort when third off a mark of 160 in the Imperial Cup at Sandown.

The race was ran at a solid tempo, making it a true test of stamina on the soft ground, and that proved key in the end. If The Cap Fits looked booked for second jumping two out as the strong-travelling Call Me Lord, who had slightly over raced in the early stages, appeared to be going the better of the leading pair. However, If The Cap Fits outstayed his main rival from the last to get home by half a length and make it back-to-back wins in the race, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of Lil Rockerfeller in third.
Historical standards point to a figure in the high 150’s, and the best winning figure in recent years was Rock On Ruby’s 160 in 2014. However, given this looked a strong renewal I’m happy to go higher in the short term. A line through Lil Rockerfeller suggests Call Me Lord has pretty much run his race in second, and that suggests a very high-class effort from If The Cap Fits, who was conceding 6 lb to Nicky Henderson’s charge.

Successful in Aintree’s 3m Grade 1 on his final run last season – a race he did well to win after a final-flight howler – If The Cap Fits has taken his form to a new level on his last two runs, with the fitting of cheekpieces seemingly a key factor. He remains with untapped potential as a stayer and looks a live danger to Paisley Park in next month’s Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot – his new rating of 166 is just 3 lb shy of what that rival achieved in winning the Cleeve and World Hurdle last year. Incidentally, Paisley Park is due to make his seasonal reappearance at Newbury on Friday. Call Me Lord and Lil Rockerfeller both remain on their pre-race ratings of 160 and 149 respectively. Roksana faded from the home turn and was a little disappointing. She’d finished a close second at Aintree on her reappearance and is unchanged at 151.

Novices Taking Shape

Hang In There made quite an impression when scoring in the Grade 2 SkyBet Sharp Novices’ Hurdle on the final day of the Cheltenham November meeting, writes David Dickinson…

Fractious once the hood was removed before leaving the parade ring, he proved keen in the race and jumped slightly right handed but he showed a willing attitude at the business end. He isn’t yet the finished article but the raw ability is certainly there and only Altior, Steps To Freedom and Cue Card have bettered his winning figure of 145 in the race in the last decade.

Half an hour earlier the final day feature, the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, produced a pulsating finish in which Harambe returned to his best to wear down Monsieur Lecoq and Gumball in the shadow of the post. Too keen over further on his seasonal debut, Harambe followed in his stable companion Elgin’s by footsteps by winning this as a second season novice.

Saturday’s Haydock card opened with Thebannerkingrebel making up for his luckless late departure at Wetherby with a gritty success in the listed Betfair Newton Novices’ hurdle despite flattening the second last, seeing his rating edge above 140 for the first time (now 141).
 
Bun Doran +6 (156)
Danny Whizzbang +8 (147)
De Rasher Counter +11 (160) also +7(147) for hurdles
Epatante +13 (150)
Fanion d’Estruval +12 (149)
Kalashnikov +6 (161)
Magic Saint +7 (154)
Oldgrangewood +7 (142)
Ribble Valley NEW (142)
Thomas Macdonagh +15 (132)
 
Glen Forsa ran just as well as Kalashnikov and Oldgrangewood on Friday. Just that lack of a recent run cost him. He's very well handicapped.
 
2019 Ladbrokes Trophy Handicappers Blog
03 Dec 19

A fighting seventeenth for the North

In these days when the North is often regarded as the poor relation in jumping terms, it is worth remembering that the fifty-year history of Newcastle’s Grade 1 Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle has seen more than a third of its runnings won by Northern-trained horses, writes David Dickinson.

Saturday’s seventeenth success for the North had more than a touch of good fortune about it. Cornerstone Lad was allowed a six length lead over the first and his jockey, Henry Brooke, was able to dictate matters. He did it well, kicking ten lengths clear turning for home, which, as it turned out, was a race winning move. Buveur d’Air was closing fast when meeting the penultimate flight all wrong, a mistake which sadly seems to have curtailed his season and surely cost him the race.

Such a shock result is usually difficult to interpret but not necessarily on this occasion with the other three runners – Silver Streak, Lady Buttons and Nelson River – all going close to giving their running. Silver Streak, rated 154 from last season’s Champion Hurdle, finished a short head and three and a quarter lengths behind Cornerstone Lad and that would rate the winner either 157 or 158. Given the nature of the race, I have settled on the lower figure.

Does that flatter the winner? Possibly. The time was nothing special but I am reluctant to criticise Cornerstone Lad too much. He proved very game under a strong ride and has never finished out of the first two in eight starts over
hurdles when only the words soft or heavy appear in the going description. It will presumably stop raining at some point this winter but a heavy ground Cheltenham would make him of some interest in the big one.
Coincidentally, the last Northern trained winner of this race, Countrywide Flame in 2012, went on to run the race of his life when finishing third to Hurricane Fly in that season’s Champion Hurdle (run on soft ground).
On the supporting card at Newbury, Epatante showed just why she carried so much confidence in the Mares Novice at the Cheltenham Festival before flopping in a hood. With that removed, she won the Ladbroke Intermediate Handicap (formerly known as the Gerry Feilden to those of us of a certain age) with an electric turn of foot. Her new rating of 150 (up 13 lb) should put her in the mix in graded races from now on.
Nothing streaky about rasher
A massive field lined up for the 2019 Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Newbury, and it looked as competitive as the numbers suggested, writes Martin Greenwood…

The ‘4 lb well in’ favourite West Approach fell early, and fellow strongly-fancied rivals Cabaret Queen and Ok Corral disappointed badly, but that shouldn’t detract from some high-class handicap form that was posted at the business end.

They seemed to go an honest clip but the field didn’t begin to get spaced until after turning in for the second time. By this time, the unexposed pair of De Rasher Counter and The Conditional (2 lb well in) had put themselves to the fore and they fought out the finish until both Elegant Escape and Beware the Bear stayed on very strongly in the closing stages. Don’t be fooled by the fact only just over two lengths covered the first four, though, as De Rasher Counter was more than a tad impressive and had gone around four lengths up before the jockey took it easy and punched the air in celebration close home.

With that quartet pulling six lengths and more clear of the remainder, I have decided that both Elegant Escape (+4 to 164, but able to defend his Welsh National crown off 160 due to that race having closed last week) and Beware the Bear (+4 to 162, though was 160 last season) have run personal bests. As mentioned, The Conditional was already due to go from 137 to 139 anyway. He now has a further 3 lb to go to 142 and probably has more improvement in him. That last remark definitely also applies to De Rasher Counter who leaps from 149 to 160, and it will be interesting if connections decide whether to take the step up in graded company or stick to handicaps in the short term.

Successful return for staying supremo
Newbury’s Grade 3 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle may have attracted only five runners, but that quintet included the last four winners of the race, writes Andrew Mealor…

All eyes were on last season’s dominant stayer Paisley Park who was making his first outing since the World Hurdle and was sent off at odds on. His opponents included The Worlds End, fresh from a success in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby, and the veterans Unowhatimeanharry (winner of this race in 2016 and 2018) and 2015 winner Thistlecrack. The line-up was completed by Beer Goggles, the 2017 winner who was returning from a lengthy absence.

The Worlds End dictated matters and a time comparison with the steadily-run handicap over the same trip thirty-five minutes later suggests he set a fairly moderate tempo (the final times come out very similar once the weights carried are taken into account, despite a roughly 30 lb difference in ability between the two winners). That sort of affair didn’t seem likely to suit Paisley Park given his strong-staying performances last year but he found plenty as usual to get the better of the strong-travelling Thistlecrack as the pair drew clear from the last, ultimately winning by a length.

Six lengths further back in third was The Worlds End who came in rated 16 lb off Paisley Park at 153, the figure he recorded when winning at Wetherby. His proximity restricts the bare level of this race. Although he has been rated slightly higher in the past (was 155 after finishing mid-field in a muddling 2018 World Hurdle), I opted to leave Tom George’s charge on 153 and level the race around him repeating his Wetherby form. That sort of level also fits well with the recent historical standards for the Long Distance Hurdle which suggest a rating of around 160 for the winner.

Following this more than satisfactory return, Paisley Park is unchanged on 169 and he now heads to Ascot to defend his Long Walk Hurdle crown. Thistlecrack came in with an official rating of 167, though that figure was largely based on his recent chasing exploits, notably his second in last year’s King George. He remains on that figure over fences but I have dropped his hurdle rating to 162 and tied him in with Paisley Park’s figure – he was 1 length (1 lb) behind that rival here and was receiving 6 lb.
 
Ask Ben +2 (138)
Botox Has +7 (139)
Cheddleton NEW (135)
Cogry +4 (143)
Dame de Compagnie +8 (140)
Goodbye Dancer +6 (130)
Mister Fisher +4 (148)
Pagero +15 (121)
Pym +3 (152)
Redford Road +8 (140)
Tarada +5 (135)
Warthog +4 (136)
 
OK so I just looked again and found this

"Due to recent patterns of activity from your computer, we have blocked your access to http://www.britishhorseracing.com. After completing the captcha below, you will immediately regain access to http://www.britishhorseracing.com, however you may receive further captchas if further unusual behaviour is detected."

Presume I shouldn't be posting links from their site ??
 
Oh blime! If you don't have to log in I don't see why? Sorry to cause you the bother. :(

PS ...BBB was done on Friday: that ground was never good to soft and he didn't settle - again. Not sure now what can be done to try and get him to calm down at the start/early part of the race. Second was okay but...........I am being harsh but was really disappointed . Reputation means nothing in my book and I thought he could have beaten the winner.
 
Fidlerontheroof + 14 (154)
Lightly Squeeze + 8 (128)
Doing Fine + 6 (130)
Summerville Boy + 3 (156)
Captain Drake + 11 (138)
Sir Psycho + 16 (133)
Silver Forever + 5 (143)
Mercy Mercy Me + 8 (133)
Any Drama + 8 (137)
Boldmere + 9 (142)
Boss Man Fred + 10 (134)
Broughtons Admiral + 10 (131)
Domaine De L’Isle + 10 (140)
Eldorado Allen + 7 (152)
Enry Iggins + 12 (112)
Flinck + 9 (128)
Gunnery + 17 (132)
Imperial Alcazar + 8 (139)
Lord Du Mesnil + 10 (147)
Skandiburg + 6 (140)
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Fidlerontheroof + 14 (154)
Click to expand...

Very interesting that Fiddlerontheroof now rated OR 154 - 2lbs Higher than Envoi Allen on 152!
And 6lbs higher than Abacadabras on 148. Yet Fiddlerontheroof 8/1 for the SUpreme - double the price of Abacadabras.

I suppose there is the element of the UK vs Irish handicapper here - and if these were slightly lower rated novices going for a H'Cap at the festival, the Irish horses would most likely get a few extra lbs from the UK Handicapper when entered for a H'Cap (I'm still not sure how this officially works?!?)
 
The UK handicapper keeps his own ratings for horses trained in Ireland. At the end of each season, UK and Irish handicappers get together and agree ratings for the top horses.
 
Largely irrelevant I suppose, but another five from the UK handicapper for Envoi Allen I suspect Shane. Max 7. Interesting that they are so close though.

There's nothing yet to say that Envoi Allen is a better horse over two and half than he showed over two. I thought that was a decent performance from him the other day, but the Abracadabras form at Fairyhouse over two I'd say was better. The benefit of hindsite after the Festivals may tell us different though.

I suspect Fiddlerontheroof will almost certainly be better at two and half based on that Sandown run. Plenty of hotpots have been turned over in the Ballymore too, so no value in Envoi Allen and definitely worth looking elsewhere even if he you still think he'll win. Also worth baring in mind that FOTR's allotted handicap mark is higher than any of the British winners of the race took in to the race since the turn of the century. That's how highly rated the Sandown run is.
 
After Fiddler's race Robbie Power was asked what would be the most suitable race for it at the festival. It was interesting that in his reply he said they would have to take into account where the opposition might be going, and specifically mentioned Envoi Allen.
 
Grey said:
After Fiddler's race Robbie Power was asked what would be the most suitable race for it at the festival. It was interesting that in his reply he said they would have to take into account where the opposition might be going, and specifically mentioned Envoi Allen.
Click to expand...
Robbie rode Abacadabras to victory a few runs ago, where be travelled like an absolute dream and hacked up. So I'd say Robbie knows how good Abacadabras is and the fact Envoi Allen then beat him comfortably tells Robbie that Envoi is a machine!
 
Hold The Note 145 (+12)
Annie Mc 142 (+2)
Burrows Edge 138 (+6)
Coconut Splash 131 (NEW)
Erick Le Rouge 141 (+7)
Joke Dancer 141 (+7)
Katpoli 138 (+4)
Kimberlite Candy 150 (+10)
Mossy Fen 143 (+11)
Never Adapt 140 (+10)
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Burrows Edge 138 (+6)
Click to expand...

This is what I wanted to know.

However, the list doesn't show that Debestyman, three clear of BE when coming down at the last has also been raised 6lbs and Notre Pari challenging strongly alongside BE at the last has only been raised 3lbs. I reckon JP will be happy with that.
 
The handicapper has put Defi Du Seuil up 4lb to 170. Arguable but not outrageous.

However, to justify that he's put Marracudja up 11lb to 154. This is his highest rating from running his 25th chase in 3 years and 7lb higher than his previous peak in December 2016. ​A remarkable training performance!
 
archie said:
However, to justify that he's put Marracudja up 11lb to 154. This is his highest rating from running his 25th chase in 3 years and 7lb higher than his previous peak in December 2016. ​A remarkable training performance!
Click to expand...

And he bled
 
Did they need to put Defi up to 170 for winning on the bridle against a 12yo?

I don't doubt he can run to 170+ at the festival but he wasnt even extended last Saturday.
 
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