The thoughts of the handicappers.

[h=2]The 2019 Qipco King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes[/h]30 Jul 19


The 2019 Qipco King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a race that I will remember for as long as I am able to remember horseracing, write Mark Olley. I have read in the past day or so comparisons to the 1975 Grundy v Bustino King George and while I am old enough to remember that race I didn’t realise the significance of what I was watching then until later. I am fully aware of the significance of this year’s race and, what a race it was!

Sectional times confirm that this was a soundly run race from the start (these are freely available on www.ascot.co.ukalong with the distance travelled during the race of each runner) and the first three home, Enable, Crystal Ocean and Waldgeist were all positioned around mid-division or further back. Enable clearly didn’t have things go to plan in that it took a while to get in from a wide draw and she was probably a touch further back than Frankie had anticipated. However, she showed her star quality by overcoming this and winning by a fairly ready looking neck in the end. My initial view was that she was really inconvenienced by her passage through the race and I was slightly surprised to see that she “only” covered 1.9 meters further than Crystal Ocean in second – that equates to somewhere between 0.5 and 0.75 of a length which converts to around a pound with things rounded up.


Factoring in the above and the style of victory I have called the winning neck margin 2lb and have her running to a rating of 126 (up 1lb from her pre-race 125). Five year race standards suggest a figure of 123, but I am comfortable being higher and 126 matches her performance when also winning the race in 2017 – she went on to be rated 128 that year after her Arc win.

Crystal Ocean came into the race rated 127 and ran a magnificent race conceding Enable the 3lb mares allowance. It takes two horses to make a great race and he played his part and more. As the above figures show he had a marginally better passage through the race than Enable and to my eyes looked like winning for a stride or two inside the final furlong.

He came into this race as the highest rated horse in the Longines World’s Best Racehorse list and it is a position he holds onto due to the fact that he was carrying 3lb more than Enable. However, as Enable will also get that allowance if/when they meet again the above ratings mean that we think Enable would win. In simplified terms a filly needs to have 3lb added to her rating to make a direct comparison with a colt/gelding.

I would also like to clarify that these are current BHA ratings and may not necessarily be replicated on the Longines list where representatives from all racing nations have a vote on the final figures.

I have Waldgeist running a career best rating of 124 (up 2lb) in third. Of the front three, he got the run of the race and covered 3.5 meters less than Enable, but he finished closer to Crystal Ocean than he did in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He seems to love Longchamp and finished a close fourth in the Arc last year.

The anomaly of having Enable on a lower rating than the horse she beat on Saturday, due to carrying less weight, got me thinking about what makes a top-class horse great. There is a list of horses, including Giants Causeway, Sea The Stars and possibly Frankel that didn’t seem to get the rating that maybe people thought they deserved. Ratings measure a performance on a given day, they are influenced by numerous factors including the rivals a horse meets and the way a race is run. If these are not favourable then it is hard for a horse to achieve a high rating. Meanwhile there are qualities like longevity, toughness and lovability which we all value, but can’t be factored into a horses rating. I think Enable is great, I think the King George was one of the best races I have seen and I hope the above helps explain why she is rated 126.
 
Glorious Goodwood 2019 Handicappers Blog
06 Aug 19

Arc on the cards for Stradivarius?

Stradivarius wrote himself into the record books with another stellar performance on the opening day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival. Matthew Tester envisages what else he may achieve in 2019…

Stradivarius became a record breaker. He is the first horse in history to win three Qatar Goodwood Cups in a row. He was taken on again by Dee Ex Bee and Cross Counter – who had chased him home in the Ascot Gold Cup – and he beat them again. For doing so, and for the style of the win, his rating has now gone up to 121 (from 120), with Dee Ex Bee also going up 1 lb (to 119) and Cross Counter remaining on his pre-race figure of 118.

Presumably Stradivarius will again go for York’s Lonsdale Cup. Presumably he will win again and will pick up the £1m bonus once more. In some ways with dominant horses, as in the case of Frankel, we are just hoping that nothing goes wrong.

For me the most exciting race of Frankel’s career after he had won the Guineas was in York’s Juddmonte International. He was tackling a new trip and the possibility that he might be beaten felt real. Frankel is the only horse I have ever seen that I could imagine winning both the July Cup and Ascot’s King George. He seemed to have the outstanding speed for 6f and the stamina for 12f. Stradivarius has won over as far as two and a half miles but could he win over a mile less at Group 1 level? Ardross won two Ascot Gold Cups and then took a crack at the Arc and went down by just a head. It was glory in defeat.

Stradivarius was only a short head behind Crystal Ocean in their Leger – the pair half a length behind the winner Capri – and Crystal Ocean is the highest rated 12f horse in the world currently. The Champion Stayers race at Ascot on British Champions Day must be tempting for Stradivarius’ connections. But Stradivarius shows an excellent turn of foot to win his staying races and he might be able to produce his best in a truly-run Arc. I hope that they roll the dice.

My fingers are also crossed for the Lillie Langtry winner Enbihaar. She is a big filly with a great stride and she is getting better and better. Her five-length win at Goodwood was impressive and has earned her a 113 handicap rating. She would get a fillies’ allowance of three pounds if she takes on the colts, making her very close to the big boys in races around 14f. The thought that she may not have finished improving makes her a very exciting prospect for the autumn.

Hot too good for Sussex rivals

In what turned out to be the final start of a truncated but stellar career, Too Darn Hot landed the Qatar Sussex Stakes on Wednesday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill. He turned the tables on his St James’s Palace conqueror Circus Maximus with a little more in hand than the final margin of half a length suggests. Having posted a BHA figure of 121 when returning to winning ways over 7f in a Group 1 in France earlier in July, I have John Gosden’s colt running to a figure of 120 in the Sussex, with Circus Maximus improving a pound on his Royal Ascot success to 118.

I do have some concerns regarding the proximity of I Can Fly in third and Happy Power in fourth (both rated 110 pre-race) but the former has been rated higher previously and the latter had a progressive profile before blowing out in the Jersey at Royal Ascot on ground that might have been a tad too quick for him. I am prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt in the short term but I wouldn’t be adverse to bringing the level of the Sussex down 1 lb if they fail to reproduce this form between now and the end of the year.

Disappointments of the race were Lord Glitters (fifth, pre-race 117), Phoenix of Spain (sixth, 120) and Zabeel Prince (seventh, 117) who all failed to show their best. They all have solid form from earlier in the season, however, and retain their previous ratings. Rated 126 when champion juvenile last season, Too Darn Hot’s current rating of 121 makes him the leading 3yo miler In Europe as things stand.

King George Stakes hat-trick for Battaash

The Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes over 5f saw a little bit of history made when Battaash became the first horse to win the race three times, writes Chris Nash.

Battaash’s pre-race rating of 123 put him upwards of 13 lb clear of his eight rivals and that was reflected in an SP of 4/1-on. He duly won and probably with a shade more comfort than the official margin of three quarters of a length suggests. In second place was Houtzen who was formerly trained in Australia but was having her first run for Martyn Meade – she arrived here rated 108. Afurther two and a half lengths back in third was Ornate who had been in good form recently but at a lower level than this and had a pre-race rating of 102.

Battaash had dazzled in his two previous victories in this race, recording a figure of 122 in 2017 and 125 last year, the latter remaining a career best. He was slightly less imposing this time but still recorded a comprehensive victory. I have allocated him a figure of 118+ for this performance and his official rating will remain unchanged at 123.

Houtzen received 6 lb from the winner – Battaash carried a 3 lb penalty and she also received a 3 lb fillies allowance. The three-quarters of a length that she was beaten equates to 3 lb at this distance, so in all Houtzen comes out 9 lb inferior to Battaash on the day, giving her a figure of 109 – we have had her running to that mark in Australia previously but never any higher. Ornate has run to a figure of 103 which is a recent best, though he was rated as high as 110 in 2017.

Following his previous two wins in this race Battaash has headed to York to run in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes, and both times he has finished fourth whilst running a fair way below his Goodwood form. Connections indicated that he will almost certainly take the same path again. Charlie Hills’ gelding will line up as the highest rated in the race and if he can finally replicate his Goodwood form at York he’ll take all the beating.
 
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York Ebor Festival | Handicappers Blog
27 Aug 19


International glory for Japan

Top-rated Crystal Ocean was just touched off by Ballydoyle raider Japan in the Juddmonte International, the feature race on day 1 of the Ebor Festival. Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hillassesses the form…

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tad disappointed that Crystal Ocean (127) didn’t win the Juddmonte International, but that is purely from a handicapping perspective because, as always, he gave it everything and ran his usual game and gutsy race – and it’s not as if it’s the first time a hot favourite has come unstuck in this event. Go back twelve months and Crystal Ocean’s stablemate Poet’s Word arrived at York on the back of winning the King George at Ascot, when beating Crystal Ocean by a neck and running to a figure of 126. He couldn’t quite repeat that form on the Knavesmire three weeks later, however, finishing runner-up to three-year-old Roaring Lion (albeit sustaining a career-ending injury in the process).

Back to Crystal Ocean, and maybe the hard race he had behind Enable at Ascot left its mark? Perhaps the drop to ten furlongs was against him? Or maybe, just maybe, he saves his best performances for the Berkshire track? His three best figures have all come at Ascot – 125 in last year’s King George and a brace of 127s in the Prince of Wales’s and the King George this season. The 121 I have him running to last week is more in line with his other performances away from Ascot.

In settling on a level for the Juddmonte I have not only looked at the previous form and ratings of the horses concerned but also looked back at previous runnings of the race. No fifth placed horse has performed above 115 in the Juddmonte since the turn of the century and I see no obvious reason why Regal Reality should prove the exception to that rule. However, given the quality of the field, I am happy to have him match that figure.

This level suggests improved performances from the progressive three-year-olds Japan (up to 122 from 117) and King of Comedy (fourth, up to 118 from 116), and means the resurgent Elarqam (3[SUP]rd[/SUP]) has run to 119+ having been slightly hampered in the final half furlong or so. I now believe I slightly underestimated his previous success in the Sky Bet York Stakes which I originally called 118 but could easily be 120 if using Addeybb (second) and Knight To Behold (third) as a guide to the level. As such, I have raised Elarqam to a new mark of 120.

Oaks magic from Enable


The Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks may have been light on numbers but it more than made up for it in quality and it was probably the last time we will see Enable on a British racecourse, writes Mark Olley.

Things didn’t go to plan for Enable in the King George, but they were much more straightforward on the Knavesmire. John Gosden’s charge dictated a steady pace before showing a terrific turn of foot to totally dominate high-class rival Magical.

Sectional times from the meeting show Enable covered the first five furlongs in 65.85 seconds. Forty minutes later over the same twelve furlong trip, Galtres winner Search For A Song recorded 63.31s for her first five furlongs, fully 2.54s (around 15 lengths) quicker, an illustration of how relatively sedately they went in the Yorkshire Oaks. However, Enable’s final time was 0.4 seconds faster, and her final furlong sectional of 11.98 seconds was matched on the day only by Mums Tipple, who was an eleven-length winner of the six-furlong sales race.

When races are relatively steadily run it makes it hard for horses to exert their superiority over rivals and to compensate for that we increase the poundage used. Both Enable and Magical were eased in the closing stages and I have called the two and three-quarter lengths winning margin 6 lb, which basically means we think Enable was value for a further one length.

Magical is a dual Group 1 winner who has also finished runner-up in both the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and Coral Eclipse at Sandown this year. She is an ultra tough and high-class mare (rated 122) and brings substance to the Yorkshire Oaks form. Magical has met Enable twice before, in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Eclipse, and on both occasions finished three-quarters of a length second. In extending that superiority over her old rival, Enable looks to have run as well as she ever has. As a result I have taken her back to her peak rating of 128, a figure she last achieved when winning her first Arc as a three-year-old. As I mentioned in a previous blog, her 128 rating is equivalent to that of a 131 rated colt as her 3 lb mares allowance needs to be added on for comparison.

There was another twelve furlong performance of note at York and that was Logician’s impressive success in the Group 2 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes. He maintained his unbeaten record despite the significant step up in grade, and a one and three-quarter length defeat of Constantinople earns him a rating of 115. To put context to that figure, only Bandari (114 in 2002) has rated lower on the day among Great Voltigeur winners this century. However, I’m sure we haven’t seen the best of Logician yet.

Third time lucky for Battaash

A runaway success for Battaash in the Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes more than made amends for the gelding’s two previous failures in the race (including a defeat as odds-on favourite twelve months ago). In the process he looks to have produced a career-best performance, as Chris Nash explains…

The Nunthorpe was won in mightily impressive fashion by Battaash. He tracked the early pace, moved upsides the leaders on the bridle at halfway and strode clear from there to win by three and three-quarter lengths. It was a performance of total authority.

The visual impressions were also backed up by the clock as Battaash broke the five furlong track record set by Dayjur in the same race some twenty-nine years previously. Dayjur’s winning time back in 1990 was 56.16 seconds and Battaash bettered that 0.26s. To put that into context, the 0.26s margin would equate to around one and a half lengths, which would be the equivalent of between 5 and 6 lbs over five furlongs. It also looks like Dayjur carried 9st 6lbs in his race (with his 3 lb weight-for-age allowance added back on), whereas Battaash carried 5 lbs more at 9st 11lbs.

The last ten winners of the Nunthorpe range from 116 to 124 and applying race standards to this renewal gives a figure of 126-127 for Battaash. In second place was Soldier’s Call who had placed in both the Abbaye last autumn and the King’s Stand earlier this season, running to a figure of 114 both times – there appears to be no reason why he wouldn’t have done so again. A further length back in third was the Irish-trained So Perfect who arrived here rated 106 but had reached a peak of 110 in her two-year-old career – her presence in third does nothing to detract from this form, especially as she was in receipt of the 3 lb sex allowance from the first two. I have called the winning margin 13 lbs and settled on a figure of 127 for Battaash, which has Soldier’s Call repeating his 114 figures and So Perfect running to 108.

The Nunthorpe would have to rate a career best for Battaash. I did initially rate him 127 after he scorched home in the King George Stakes at Goodwood last year but that form didn’t work out and I dropped him back to 125 subsequently. My international colleagues were less impressed and they dropped him back to 123 at the end of last season. Looking at their initial ratings for the Nunthorpe, it appears that the majority of them are reluctant to give Battaash as much credit as I am with their figures ranging from only 121 to 127. We’ll see what happens when the ratings are ratified at the end of the year but I reckon you will struggle to see a more impressive five furlong performance.

He becomes the highest rated winner of the Nunthorpe this century, an honour that previously belonged to Nuclear Debate who achieved a figure of 124 in 2000. More recently Mecca’s Angel was given a figure of 121 for winning the 2016 renewal – as a filly getting a 3 lb allowance that ranks the equivalent of a 124 rating for a male.

Whichever way you look at his effort it is hard to knock what Battaash did on Friday. In terms of domestic performances this season his 127 figure will slot him just behind Enable (128) and will put him level with Crystal Ocean.

As he is already a gelding we should have the pleasure of seeing Battaash in action for some time to come. We may well see him next on Irish Champions weekend in the Group 1 Derrinstown Flying Five and following that he will likely go to Paris to run in the Abbaye, a race he won back in 2017. Connections have also mentioned possibly having a crack at the Breeders’ Cup as well.

Mums Tipple storms up the juvenile rankings

The three pattern races for juveniles at York last week were put firmly in the shade by what at first glance appeared to be a freak performance from Mums Tipple in the Goffs UK Premier Yearling Auction Stakes, writes Graeme Smith.

Mums Tipple was a strong favourite considering the form of his debut success at Ascot seemed to leave him with plenty to find with a handful in opposition, and in less than 70 seconds of action – in which he blitzed his 20 rivals by no fewer than eleven lengths – he stamped himself as one of the hottest prospects in the bloodstock world right now.

Emotionally this was right up there with Lady Aurelia’s Queen Mary decimation and I daresay there will have been people minded to search the web for the video of Arazi from all those years ago, but handicapping the race requires a much more objective judgement.

Putting figures on such a dominant performance is never easy, particularly as the leading form picks surely didn’t fire given their proximity to others in the race, so his figure for now is slightly tentative in the hope we find out more in the Mill Reef and/or Middle Park.

A strict mathematical interpretation of the eleven-length margin suggested a figure approaching 120, which would be the best by any two-year-old in Europe this year. However, smart as his time was it stopped short of confirming such a lofty view and that looks telling evidence with the sectionals suggesting he ran his race very efficiently.A line through the well-run mile handicap brings a speed figure of 116/117 for Mums Tipple and he’s been rated the lower of those figures, bearing in mind he had the strong tailwind at his back throughout his race whereas the milers didn’t.

Regardless of Mums Tipple’s rating for the time being, he’s a handsome colt who clearly has a huge amount of ability and he’ll be a box office draw wherever he turns up next.

The second most valuable two-year-old prize from York also made its way back to Richard Hannon’s Wiltshire base thanks to Threat pressing his clear form advantage home in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes.
The Coventry and Richmond runner-up had upwards of 9 lb in hand of his rivals on pre-race figures in a renewal that seemingly lacked its usual depth, and even with Lord of The Lodge taking another big leap forward for front-running tactics, he got the job done by a length and a quarter. A 2 lb rise to 113 pegs Threat as an average Gimcrack winner judged on the last 7 years. Historical standards pointed to a higher mark, as tends to be the case with strung-out finishes, but that level didn’t feel right given what the opposition had achieved pre-race.

The other two group races at York stayed in the county courtesy of Living in The Past and Valdermoro.
 
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The William Hill St Leger Festival
17 Sep 19


Leger joy for Logician

Logician’s success in the St Leger – a sixth win in the race for Frankie Dettori and fifth for trainer John Gosden – was the highlight of the St Leger Festival. Matthew Tester assesses the season’s final Classic…

Logician went into the William Hill St Leger a worthy favourite but with some questions to answer. He was racing over two and a half furlongs further than he had tried before. His style of racing suggested that he would cope; but his mother had done all her winning at a mile and her mother had done all her winning at seven furlongs. Logician’s father is Frankel.

Connections had also expressed concerns that this big horse might not like the quick ground. Unbeaten in four starts prior to Doncaster, one of them a Group 2, could Logician step up to Group 1 level and show his best? The simple answer is “yes”, breaking the track record in the process, but racing is rarely simple.The race was actually full of questions beforehand and, to some extent, still is.

Sir Dragonet had been narrowly beaten when fifth in the Derby, a performance which merited a rating of 117, but had lost his only race since which was over ten furlongs. Could he run to his best? Il Paradiso had finished only a little over a length behind Stradivarius when third in the Lonsdale Cup over two miles last time. But Stradivarius only seems to pull out enough to win and the other two opponents that day each bled after the race. Dashing Willoughby had won over fourteen furlongs but his form at twelve furlongs looked better.

And then there was Sir Ron Priestley. He was rated at 108 before the race compared with Logician’s 115 but, the winner of five of his last six races, could he improve enough?

After the race most things looked clearer. Sir Ron Priestley does look to have improved again in finishing second. Sir Dragonet did not reproduce over the Leger trip on fast ground what he had in the Derby and on easy ground at Chester. Dashing Willoughby faded and still looks better at twelve furlongs. Il Paradiso had everything his own way but seemed to lack the speed to cope when the others quickened. But what about the winner, Logician?

He won, and he won with authority. The winning margin of two and a quarter lengths would typically be treated as three pounds superiority over the Leger trip. The second and third (Nayef Road) were separated by only one hundredth of a second and each of them went into the race rated 108. So a bare appraisal might make Logician as low as 111 for the win. That would be a very low figure historically for a Leger winner and surely wouldn’t do Logician justice.

It seems much more likely that Sir Ron Priestley and Nayef Road have run career-best performances in their first Group 1 race. I moved them up to 112 each but one could make a case for them being 110. There is also one piece of evidence that they should be 114. Ratings are only ever our best expression of merit based on the information available at the time. There is no “correct” answer and the level of the race could move up or down based on subsequent performances. As for Logician, I moved his rating up to 117, believing that he won more decisively than the bare minimum of three pounds would suggest. In the five most recent St Legers the winner had been credited with figures between 114 and 120, with 117 the median figure.

My personal belief is that Logician won despite the fast ground and the extended distance. There is no reason why this figure of 117 is anywhere close to the maximum that he will achieve in his career. He has only raced five times, has improved with every run and is a big horse who has not yet finished maturing. I suspect that he will be kept to twelve furlongs in future and that ground this fast will never be perfect for him. I also suspect that he will be capable of performing well into the 120s next year, which would make the Arc a real possibility. But only if Enable has retired!

Threat defies penalty in Champagne Stakes

Doncaster staged the latest round of pattern races in the British juvenile season and, unsurprisingly, Threat proved the star of the show with his Pommery Champagne Stakes success, writes Graeme Smith…

Richard Hannon’s chestnut was the pick on form going in, with his Gimcrack success having earned him a rating of 113, and he didn’t have to better that by much to add a second Group 2 to his portfolio.

With a false pace leading to a bunched finish (speed figure of just 77) the level of form was rather limited, but the 3-lb penalty Threat shouldered for that success at York upgraded his performance and left him just 1 lb off the average winner of recent years at 114. There’s no doubt he’s an admirable juvenile and a stronger tempo to help him settle might bring about even more improvement.

Royal Crusade ran to a figure of 109 on only his second start and was just a neck off Threat, having travelled into things just as well as the winner. There’s probably also an upside to the third-placed Juan Elcano. He looks more of a galloper than the first two and a stiffer test of stamina promises to help.

The William Hill May Hill Stakes attracted a couple of previous pattern winners in West End Girl and Boomer. The former failed to fire for whatever reason but the latter’s Prestige Stakes win had been endorsed a couple of times, including by Stylistique in the earlier nursery, and another good run on her part in finishing second provided substance to Powerful Breeze’s winning performance of 105. Interestingly, that was exactly the figure historical standards for the race suggested.

I’d been unconvinced as to the depth of the novice Powerful Breeze won at Newmarket last month but she’d recorded a fairly useful time as well as stringing the field out that day. Having taken this step up to Group 2 company in her stride, the next step for her is surely a Group 1, with the Fillies’ Mile looking an obvious target.

Incidentally, the average performance of the winner from the last five years of that race is 114.

My colleague Chris Nash assessed A’Ali’s Wainwright Flying Childers success and has him running 3 lb off the 112 he’d achieved in the Prix Robert Papin. Molathamproduced a useful performance elevated to listed company in the Weatherbys Global Stallions App Flying Scotsman Stakes. This was another false test and busy finish, but he didn’t seem as hard pushed as the half-length margin suggests so may well improve again from a slightly substandard winning figure of 102.

Of course, the performance of the last week or so in the two-year-old division was undoubtedly Pinatubo’s blistering success in the National Stakes at the Curragh. In fact, it could well be the performance of the decade. As Sunday forms part of the next racing week I’m unable to look at that until after the Doncaster ratings have been filed but suffice to say I’m well aware of the style he did it in and the scorching time he clocked. Watch this space
 
2019 Dubai Future Champions Festival Handicappers Blog
15 Oct 19


Dewhurst success rounds off perfect campaign for Pinatubo

It would have been a big ask for Pinatubo to repeat his National Stakes fireworks in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes, four weeks deeper into the autumn and under very different conditions, but the superstar two-year-old nevertheless signed off his first season with a perfect six wins from six, writes Graeme Smith…

It looked at one stage as though it might not happen for Pinatubo as an improved Arizona took the fight to him but the Godolphin colt looks a juvenile who has it all and the further he went the stronger he became, with the two-length margin by the time the line came being a decisive one.

Soft conditions were an unknown for most of the field and some plainly didn’t fire. In a truly-run race the final time points towards a figure of 117 – using the Autumn Stakes as a guide – but other factors give some leeway and I’ve penciled Pinatubo’s performance in at 121 for the time being. That’s bang on the ten-year average for Dewhurst winners, though the five-year average would be a bit higher still. Pinatubo remains rated 128 on his blistering success over Armory and Arizona in the National Stakes, where his margin over the latter was more than seven lengths greater than on Saturday.

He goes into winter quarters as a strong favourite for the 2000 Guineas on the back of possibly the best two-year-old career of the last twenty-five years. If he emerges as the same force it’s hard to see how he’ll be beaten back on the Rowley Mile in May, but that’s by no means guaranteed judged on the past record of the outstanding juvenile champions.

Arizona had rather flatlined since looking a potential star himself when scraping home over what appeared a barely adequate 6f in the Coventry in June, but this was much more like it ridden positively on his second try at 7f. He’s clearly the best of the Ballydoyle juveniles on racecourse performance so far (improved from 108 to 117 on my figures in the Dewhurst) and is very much the type to thrive physically and fill his sizeable frame from two to three years.

Historical standards and his beating of Wichita et al suggest the Dewhurst could be worth more than currently rated but I’m mindful that Arizona’s path to this performance hasn’t been altogether smooth. I also got the impression that Wichita (who ran to 111) possibly wasn’t quite the same horse on this softer ground as he’d been a fortnight earlier when winning a Group 3 over the same course and distance. I still have confidence in that 114 performance and he’s another who should do well over the winter.
Pinatubo may be the flagbearer in Godolphin’s two-year-old team but there’s an array of talent spread around several of the operation’s trainers and both Victor Ludorum (covered later in this piece) and Military March hammered the point home last week.

Military March – probably alongside Arizona – is about as physically imposing as any horse that has set foot on the Rowley Mile this autumn. He proved he has the engine to match his bodywork when getting the better of a nip-and-tuck duel with Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail, the pair some seven lengths clear of the remaining six runners in the Dubai Autumn Stakes. Military March had only a third of the racecourse experience the runner-up brought to the race, having won his sole previous start back in the summer, so this battling 113 performance augurs well for his prospects of emulating both his sire and dam by providing top-level success for his ownership group over middle-distances in the future. In the meantime, he’d be a very realistic contender if taking up his entry in the Vertem Futurity Trophy on Saturday week.

Incidentally, the first three from the Autumn Stakes in 2018 went on the win the French Guineas, Newmarket Guineas and St James’s Palace respectively. The time of this year’s renewal judged against the nursery would have endorsed a view 1 lb higher than I took but the presence of the consistent maiden Ropey Guest in third rather tempered that.

The 1m2f Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes was the third pattern race for two-year-olds on Saturday’s card. It’s never an easy contest to level with the entire field stepping up so markedly in trip, and this year a pace that took time to gather momentum made time analysis that bit harder. Recent renewals at listed level have thrown up the top-level winners Wings of Eagles, Kew Gardens and Coronet, so this upgraded Group 3 contest is well worth keeping an eye on. For now, I have the strong-staying Max Vega improving to a mark of 107 for his three-length defeat of Miss Yoda (99), having been guided largely by race standards, but we’ll get a firmer idea as the form is tested.


The emphasis of Friday’s Newmarket card was on fillies and Quadrilateral bolstered her growing reputation with a hard-fought success in the Bet365 Fillies’ Mile. This looks a race to view positively with the efforts of a couple of previously unbeaten fillies being supported by some strong form lines courtesy of the Moyglare winner Love, Flame of Tara scorer Cayenne Pepper and Boomer, whose Prestige success is looking stronger by the week.
Quadrilateral (113 from 103) strengthened her position as ante-post favourite for the 1000 Guineas but I don’t think it’s a done deal that she’ll confirm superiority over runner-up Powerful Breeze over the same Rowley Mile next spring. While acknowledging inexperience could have been a factor with both fillies having just their third race, Powerful Breeze looked the speedier of the pair by some way as she quickened into what looked like a winning advantage. Quadrilateral had been at work for quite some time before making meaningful inroads from the Dip, and in a race that finished in negative closing sectionals it was almost certainly stamina that won the day this time.

While there was undoubted depth to the Fillies’ Mile, a finish rather more condensed than is often the case leaves Quadrilateral no higher than the median of recent winning figures on 113 – the same level as Iridessa and Laurens from the last two years and 2 b shy of the 115 currently published in Ireland for the Cheveley Park winner, Millisle.

The Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes was weakened by the below-par showings of Final Song and Stylistique and a blanket finish among the first four suggests the race is some way short of the level the best fillies set. Nevertheless, Rose of Kildare is an admirable filly and she defied a 3lb-penalty for her win in the Firth of Clyde at Ayr, breaking through the 100 barrier on her twelfth career start and emerging with a rating of 103.
Longchamp staged its traditional Group 1 races for two-year-olds on Arc day and Albigna reaffirmed the strength in depth among Jessica Harrington’s fillies as she ran out a decisive two and a half length winner of a well-run Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac. This was much more like the performance she’d promised when winning the Airlie Stakes over what appeared an inadequate 6f back in June, having reportedly been in season when only sixth in the Moyglare in between. Longer trips next year should be well up her street. Albigna is now published at 114 in Ireland, and while all these figures will be finalised at a European level at the end of the year, that’s exactly where I’d currently have her. Incidentally, the runner-up Marieta did plenty on the sectionals under a positive ride and could well have an even smarter performance in her.

The Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere proved anything but well run, with on-course sectionals showing the field reached the last 2f 5.2 seconds – or 26 lengths – slower than the fillies’ race. A sprint and well-bunched finish ensued and Godolphin’s Andre Fabre-trained Victor Ludorum did well to run down some more prominently ridden rivals without needing maximum pressure. I built an extra length into my assessment and have him around 113 at the minute, but I’m confident there’s a better performance in him when the situation allows.
 
The last flat one of the year...

QIPCO British Champions Day – Handicappers Blog
22 Oct 19

King reigns in QEII

As with most of the races run on Saturday, due to ground conditions the two races that fell within my compass needed careful analysis before deciding on the level and revised figures, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…

The easier of the two was probably King of Change’s success in the QEII Stakes. To give French handicapper Eric le Guen his due, he failed to get caught up in the hype surrounding The Revenant’s win on Arc weekend and published him at 117 after that success – and the evidence from Saturday suggests he was correct in doing so.

Whilst third placed Safe Voyage went into the race rated 113, the mud-loving six-year-old could easily have run to 114 when defeating Suedois by nearly two lengths under similar conditions in the John of Gaunt at Haydock in June. If he is taken to have reproduced that effort here then The Revenant has repeated his French figure of 117. Given this was the twenty-third start of Safe Voyage’s career, I am reluctant to go any higher until any subsequent evidence suggests the level is too low.

This line of thinking results in the relatively unexposed (just sixth career start) King of Change improving from his pre-race mark of 115 to 120, whilst Veracious (fourth, pre-race 113) and Mohaather (fifth, 114) both look to have been a little below their best at 108 and 110 respectively. Veracious set a decent gallop in the conditions and paid the price late on, whilst Mohaather was having his first run since winning the Greenham in April.

A couple of other points probably worth mentioning from the QEII. Although conditions were undoubtedly testing down the straight mile, the time of 1:44.88 was a good bit quicker than those posted under similar conditions by other recent winners Persuasive (1:46.13 in 2017) and Charm Spirit (1:46.28 in 2014). King of Change’s success hopefully dismisses the theory that the three horses who raced up the stands rail in the 2000 Guineas had a track advantage. Whilst winner Magna Grecia has obviously had his issues since, both King of Change (second) and Shine So Bright (sixth) have proved their worth subsequently.


The Qipco Champion Stakes is not quite so easy to assess in my view. It was wonderful to see Magical notch another Group 1 success but she was below her best of 122 in winning the Irish Champion Stakes, was a good way off her best in the Arc and I suspect she was probably below 122 again in winning on Saturday.

Addeybb will have relished the underfoot conditions but has never been higher than 117 previously and was rated 114 pre-race. His success in the Wolferton Stakes at the Royal meeting is working out well, however, and in running Magical to three quarters of a length giving her 3 lb, I think he can be credited with a career best here. I don’t think he should as high as Elarqam (120) who turned around the Wolferton form with some authority at York in July and subsequently went on to finish third in the International, so I have pitched Addeybb in at a figure of 119.

This has Magical running to 118 (4lb below her best) and third placed Deirdre (pre-race 116) also 4 lb below her best at 112 – probably no great surprise given connections concerns about the ground pre-race. This leaves the relatively unexposed Fox Tal (fourth, sixth career start) stepping up on his comfortable reappearance win at Doncaster to a new mark of 115 (from 110) – a good effort given how keen he was early.

Conditions key to Donjuan triumph

This year’s renewal of the 6f Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint certainly lived up to its name with the last three winners – Sands of Mali, Librisa Breeze and The Tin Man respectively – all taking part. Add in to the mix another three Group 1 winners this season in the shape of One Master, Hello Youmzain and Advertise, and it was arguably one of the strongest fields to contest the race since its inception, writes Stewart Copeland…

However, none of them were to prevail and the race produced something of a shock result with the admirable six-year-old Donjuan Triumphant registering his first Group 1 success. Having run with great credit in some of the top sprints these past few seasons, it was a well-deserved victory on what was his last racecourse appearance before he heads off to stud.


What counted strongly in his favour was the prevailing testing conditions, and the searching test the race provided. A proven mudlark with the stamina for 7f, that asset came to the fore late on when he outstayed favourite One Master close home – both overcoming a troubled passage inside the last 2f – to prevail by a length. The latter was another proven over 7f having won the Group 1 Foret at Longchamp over that trip on her previous start.

In analysing the race the whole complexion of it changed markedly as the pace collapsed over 1f out – led by the free running Hello Youmzain – and those held up off it dominated the finish. At this stage its worth highlighting the run of the hugely progressive four-year-old gelding Make A Challenge, who has made tremendous strides up the sprinting ranks of late in Ireland. He travelled notably strongly up with the pace and fared best of those who raced prominently throughout. This performance promises more to come and he remains an exciting prospect for next year.

As for rating the race, the average winner of the Champions Sprint is in the region of 118, and the historical standard for the race suggests that, too. This view ties in well with the third horse home, the three-year-old filly Forever in Dreams, running to the same level of 112 she did at the track when runner-up in the Commonwealth Cup at the Royal meeting. That therefore means a career-high rating of 118 for Donjuan Triumphant, and the phrase ‘saving the best for last’ seems most apt to describe his win.

The result meant not a huge amount changed at the top of the 6f division in Europe. The pick of the performances remains Ten Sovereigns 122-rated win from Advertise in the July Cup, with Advertise next best at 119. The latter wasn’t at his best on Saturday tackling his softest conditions to date, but at least from a rating perspective his Commonwealth Cup victory was franked by the performance of Forever in Dreams.

Kew Gardens blooms in Long Distance Cup

By a nose, Kew Gardens brought the ten-race winning run of Stradivarius to an end in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup, writes Matthew Tester…


On ratings before the race the pair were comfortably clear of the remaining seven runners, with Kew Gardens published at 118 in Ireland and Stradivarius at 121 in Britain. Kew Gardens had been rated 120 after winning the St Leger last year but this was his first win since. Racing over 2m for the first time – or 15.6f to be precise – he saw the trip out really well and battled back once headed by Stradivarius.

The temptation, since Kew Gardens beat Stradivarius at his first attempt, was to think that he is the better horse. But all the other evidence points to Stradivarius not having quite run up to his best on the day. The third horse, Royal Line, was five lengths behind them and was only rated 111 beforehand. He was having only his third run of the year, however, and was stepping up in trip by over three furlongs, so an improved showing wasn’t unwarranted. The fourth, Mekong, was even lower at 108 pre-race, but he did have some higher-rated horses behind him here.

The jockey of Stradivarius was inclined to blame the ground afterwards. That was a surprise since he had won this race in 2018 on even softer ground (albeit without having to run near his best), and his Gold Cup win earlier this year came on ground which was described as soft, good to soft in places. It seems plausible that this race simply comes too late in the year for a horse who was made ready to win in May of both the last two years. Keeping him at an absolute peak all the way through to the second half of October is very tough to achieve.

Either way, we are expecting both Kew Gardens and Stradivarius to stay in training next year. A season of Cup clashes between the two will be exciting and entertaining. Stradivarius has started at even money or less in all but one of his eleven races over the last two years and the added strength in depth to the staying division can only be good news.

My international colleagues have initially taken a slightly lower view of this race. I have written to them with my reasons for being more bullish but the final figures will only be agreed at the World Thoroughbred Rankings conference in December.

Star Catcher edges Fillies & Mares thriller

The Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, run over 11.5f, is open to three year olds and upwards, however, ten of the twelve runners were from the Classic generation, writes Mark Olley…

With the 122 rated Magical preferring to tackle the Qipco Champion Stakes (undoubtedly the correct decision as she won) the only two four-year-olds in the field were both rated 106 and, without being disrespectful, that is some way short of Group 1 class. However, we had the cream of the three-year-old fillies, including Oaks winner Anapurna and Irish Oaks winner Star Catcher, and they combined to serve up a thrilling race.

It was a truly-run race and every bit as exciting a finish as the preceding Qipco Long Distance Cup. Delphinia, runner-up to Anapurna in the Group 1 Prix Royallieu at Longchamp over 1m6f earlier this month, made good use of her stamina by setting a strong pace and she was only denied by Star Catcher by the narrowest of margins.

Star Catcher missed the Oaks earlier this season but has gained ample compensation since, with this success adding to her wins in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, the Irish Oaks and the Prix Vermeille.

Star Catcher and Delphinia arrived with pre-race ratings of 114 and 113 respectively, and with so little between them on the day those figures remain unchanged. That is around 2 to 3 lb below the historical standard for this race and that is partly explained by one of the aforementioned four-year-olds, Sun Maiden, finishing just a length back in third. This was a clear career best from Sun Maiden on the softest ground she has encountered and her new rating is 111 (up 5 lbs).

Fleeting also warrants a mention as she had no luck in running up the straight, with a gap closing on the inner at a crucial time, and she finished an unlucky-looking fourth. She has failed to win this season but has danced every dance, finishing in the frame in the Oaks, Ribblesdale, Irish Oaks and Prix L’Opera among other creditable runs.
 
Templepark + 8

White Moon + 5

Stoney Mountain + 4

Forest Bihan + 4 for winning a bumper :whistle:

Mason Jar + 12

Doctor Dex + 8

Gumball +8

Vinndication + 9

Midnight Midge + 10

La Cavsa Nostra + 10

Truckers Lodge -1 :lol:

Diego Du Charmil +6lb (Capeland stays unchanged)
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Templepark + 8

White Moon + 5

Stoney Mountain + 4

Forest Bihan + 4 for winning a bumper :whistle:

Mason Jar + 12

Doctor Dex + 8

Gumball +8

Vinndication + 9

Midnight Midge + 10

La Cavsa Nostra + 10

Truckers Lodge -1 :lol:

Diego Du Charmil +6lb (Capeland stays unchanged)
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Capeland straight into the tracker if unchanged
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Champagne Mystery +15

Riders On The Storm +10

Misty Bloom +11

Give Me A Copper +6
Click to expand...

Janika ran on 5th November last Tuesday and won readily off 162 carrying top weight.
The thoughts at the time from all commentators, pundits and twitterati alike was that he was going to be at least a 165+ horse now.
@Diamond Geezer - Has he been left on 162? (Expected to see him put up at least a few lbs in today's updated ratings.)
 
Double Handful said:
Janika ran on 5th November last Tuesday and won readily off 162 carrying top weight.
The thoughts at the time from all commentators, pundits and twitterati alike was that he was going to be at least a 165+ horse now.
@Diamond Geezer - Has he been left on 162? (Expected to see him put up at least a few lbs in today's updated ratings.)
Click to expand...

+4 to 166
 
Windsor Avenue + 15 = 153

Slate House + 6 = 153 :blink:

West Approach + 8 = 150

Happy Diva + 6 = 149

Thyne Hill 147 new rating

Jatiluwih + 9 = 146

Simply The Betts + 5 = 140
 
He's making the assumption that Slate House was going equally as well as Happy Diva when he fell which is true. To give him the same 6lbs though you'd have to believe that he thought that Slate House was the more likely winner.
 
Maruco said:
He's making the assumption that Slate House was going equally as well as Happy Diva when he fell which is true. To give him the same 6lbs though you'd have to believe that he thought that Slate House was the more likely winner.
Click to expand...

Get that but I wouldn't be a fan of making that assumption. To me it's just as likely that he emptied up the hill.
 
I'm with you Simmo, just saying that'll be his rationale. My own view would be 3-4lbs max. Nobody I know who watched the race has said they felt confident that Slate House would have won so I don't think the handicapper should make that judgement either.

Out of interest does anyone know what he did with Belami des Pictons?
 
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