The thoughts of the handicappers.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Roberto Goldback makes impressive start at Ascot
WITH Phil Smith on duty at the Breeders' Cup in the States I had the honour of looking after the three-mile-plus chases last week and there were a couple of high-class performances to enjoy, writes Mark Olley.
The first was in the competitive-looking United House Gold Cup Handicap at Ascot, which was won in impressive style by Roberto Goldback on his first start since joining Nicky Henderson.
Roberto Goldback's cv includes several notable performances, including a two-length second in the Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown and unseating at the last, when one length in front, in the Grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup.
He arrived at Ascot with a rating of 150 and proceeded to run right away from the competitive field to win by an easy nine lengths. I based the race around the second, Duke Of Lucca (144), and called the nine lengths 13lb, so Roberto's new rating is 162.
It is a shame that Frisco Depot came down two fences from home when travelling strongly. The way Roberto Goldback won I doubt Frisco Depot would have beaten him, but he may well have given him a sterner test. When horses fall at either of the final two fences we usually allocate them a performance figure and sometimes change their rating. However, on this occasion I decided against this as the second last was the usual third last (the former having been omitted due to being damaged in an earlier race).
The Grand National has been mentioned as a target for Roberto Goldback, but as his new rating would have seen him carry top-weight in the last two renewals, a new Graded-race plan may now be in order.
The second high-class performance came courtesy of Silviniaco Conti in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby.
This was not an easy race to assess and I ended up deciding that the runner-up Wayward Prince had returned to the 150 form of his RSA Chase third two years ago. The standards for this race suggest a figure of 154 for the second horse, but I feel happier returning Wayward Prince to 150 rather than moving him to a career-high 154 at this stage.
The above, combined with a weight concession of 5lbs and the impressive 11 length winning margin (which I called 13lbs) means that Silviniaco Conti moves to a new mark of 168. To put this into context, the only Charlie Hall winners to surpass this figure this century are Our Vic (171) in 2006 and See More Business (172) in 2000.
Coincidently Silviniaco Conti beat the 155-rated Champion Court by 13 lengths in the Grade 2 John Smith’s Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree last Spring – something which looks a shade too neat for my liking!
WYLIE OLD TIDAL
Poor old Tidal Bay has been called some names in his career but he is a high-class performer on his day and has won a further 12 races since making a winning jumps debut in 2006, writes Martin Greenwood.
Now trained by Paul Nicholls, Tidal Bay has won all sorts of top-class races, and added another when making his reappearance in the John Smith's West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby.
Receiving weight from three of his five rivals, Tidal Bay looked to hold an outstanding chance based on his placed effort over hurdles off a mark of 160 at Cheltenham last season, and he duly scored in convincing fashion despite displaying the unusual head carriage that has marked his career.
With Smad Place, Cape Tribulation and last season’s winner Restless Harry all disappointing, only one-time smart performer Crack Away Jack gave Tidal Bay any sort of race, but he was soon brushed aside once Tidal Bay was persuade to put his best forward by the excellent Walsh. Rated 160 going into the race, he didn't need to run to that figure to score and
his mark remains unchanged.
Tidal Bay may not be everyone's cup of tea and he certainly flatters to deceive on occasions, but there's no doubting his ability and I would surmise puts a smile on his owner's face!
RAYA STARS AT ASCOT
The jumps season is getting into full swing and there were some decent 2m hurdle races over the weekend, writes Chris Nash.
At Ascot there was a really competitive listed handicap which was won by Raya Star. The race was run at an honest pace and I would expect that the form will prove reliable.
At least 12 of the 15 strong field still had a chance rounding the turn for home and a tight finish ensued. The winner was carrying top weight so this must rank as an excellent seasonal return. He was last seen in April when he won the Scottish Champion Hurdle (a handicap race) off a mark of 143. He was put up 6lbs for that so lined up on Saturday from a rating of 149.
I have settled on another 6lb increase, which will take his mark to 155, and this will be the rating he will run off if he takes his chance in the Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood Hurdle) at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks' time.
Just half a length behind him was It's A Gimme, who also ran a cracker on his seasonal return. He kept galloping all the way to the line and has already proven himself over further - his mark will go up 5lb from 135 to 140 and he also holds the Racing Post entry. A further one and a half lengths behind It's A Gimme, were Claret Cloak, War Singer and Street Entertainer who were separated by just a head and a head.
At Wetherby there was a mares' Listed hurdle, which also had a finish fought out by a couple of Racing Post Hurdle entries. The lightly raced and seemingly still progressive Une Artiste beat Alasi by two and a half lengths at level weights. The runner-up is a rock-solid performer in these types of races. She arrived here rated 138 and won this race first time out in 2011. There is no reason to think she hasn't run her race again. This has Une Artiste running a marginal career best and her rating will rise 1lb to 141.
A word also for the performance of Lordofthehouse, his trainer, Tom George and jockey, Paddy Brennan at Wetherby.
This horse had refused to race in his last two flat starts and was a touch reluctant to line up and jump off for his hurdling debut on Saturday. He was detached early and jumped the first couple of flights like he was still having second thoughts about his new career.
However, he picked up the bridle going out towards the back straight and ended up winning the race tidily. In beating Falcarragh (a solid 122 performer) by five lengths at level weights he has returned a minimum figure of 127+.
If his enthusiasm for the job can be maintained he could be an interesting recruit. Given his undoubted character and his undoubted ability he will always be an entertaining horse to keep an eye on.
This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
WITH Phil Smith on duty at the Breeders' Cup in the States I had the honour of looking after the three-mile-plus chases last week and there were a couple of high-class performances to enjoy, writes Mark Olley.
The first was in the competitive-looking United House Gold Cup Handicap at Ascot, which was won in impressive style by Roberto Goldback on his first start since joining Nicky Henderson.
Roberto Goldback's cv includes several notable performances, including a two-length second in the Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown and unseating at the last, when one length in front, in the Grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup.
He arrived at Ascot with a rating of 150 and proceeded to run right away from the competitive field to win by an easy nine lengths. I based the race around the second, Duke Of Lucca (144), and called the nine lengths 13lb, so Roberto's new rating is 162.
It is a shame that Frisco Depot came down two fences from home when travelling strongly. The way Roberto Goldback won I doubt Frisco Depot would have beaten him, but he may well have given him a sterner test. When horses fall at either of the final two fences we usually allocate them a performance figure and sometimes change their rating. However, on this occasion I decided against this as the second last was the usual third last (the former having been omitted due to being damaged in an earlier race).
The Grand National has been mentioned as a target for Roberto Goldback, but as his new rating would have seen him carry top-weight in the last two renewals, a new Graded-race plan may now be in order.
The second high-class performance came courtesy of Silviniaco Conti in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby.
This was not an easy race to assess and I ended up deciding that the runner-up Wayward Prince had returned to the 150 form of his RSA Chase third two years ago. The standards for this race suggest a figure of 154 for the second horse, but I feel happier returning Wayward Prince to 150 rather than moving him to a career-high 154 at this stage.
The above, combined with a weight concession of 5lbs and the impressive 11 length winning margin (which I called 13lbs) means that Silviniaco Conti moves to a new mark of 168. To put this into context, the only Charlie Hall winners to surpass this figure this century are Our Vic (171) in 2006 and See More Business (172) in 2000.
Coincidently Silviniaco Conti beat the 155-rated Champion Court by 13 lengths in the Grade 2 John Smith’s Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree last Spring – something which looks a shade too neat for my liking!
WYLIE OLD TIDAL
Poor old Tidal Bay has been called some names in his career but he is a high-class performer on his day and has won a further 12 races since making a winning jumps debut in 2006, writes Martin Greenwood.
Now trained by Paul Nicholls, Tidal Bay has won all sorts of top-class races, and added another when making his reappearance in the John Smith's West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby.
Receiving weight from three of his five rivals, Tidal Bay looked to hold an outstanding chance based on his placed effort over hurdles off a mark of 160 at Cheltenham last season, and he duly scored in convincing fashion despite displaying the unusual head carriage that has marked his career.
With Smad Place, Cape Tribulation and last season’s winner Restless Harry all disappointing, only one-time smart performer Crack Away Jack gave Tidal Bay any sort of race, but he was soon brushed aside once Tidal Bay was persuade to put his best forward by the excellent Walsh. Rated 160 going into the race, he didn't need to run to that figure to score and
his mark remains unchanged.
Tidal Bay may not be everyone's cup of tea and he certainly flatters to deceive on occasions, but there's no doubting his ability and I would surmise puts a smile on his owner's face!
RAYA STARS AT ASCOT
The jumps season is getting into full swing and there were some decent 2m hurdle races over the weekend, writes Chris Nash.
At Ascot there was a really competitive listed handicap which was won by Raya Star. The race was run at an honest pace and I would expect that the form will prove reliable.
At least 12 of the 15 strong field still had a chance rounding the turn for home and a tight finish ensued. The winner was carrying top weight so this must rank as an excellent seasonal return. He was last seen in April when he won the Scottish Champion Hurdle (a handicap race) off a mark of 143. He was put up 6lbs for that so lined up on Saturday from a rating of 149.
I have settled on another 6lb increase, which will take his mark to 155, and this will be the rating he will run off if he takes his chance in the Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood Hurdle) at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks' time.
Just half a length behind him was It's A Gimme, who also ran a cracker on his seasonal return. He kept galloping all the way to the line and has already proven himself over further - his mark will go up 5lb from 135 to 140 and he also holds the Racing Post entry. A further one and a half lengths behind It's A Gimme, were Claret Cloak, War Singer and Street Entertainer who were separated by just a head and a head.
At Wetherby there was a mares' Listed hurdle, which also had a finish fought out by a couple of Racing Post Hurdle entries. The lightly raced and seemingly still progressive Une Artiste beat Alasi by two and a half lengths at level weights. The runner-up is a rock-solid performer in these types of races. She arrived here rated 138 and won this race first time out in 2011. There is no reason to think she hasn't run her race again. This has Une Artiste running a marginal career best and her rating will rise 1lb to 141.
A word also for the performance of Lordofthehouse, his trainer, Tom George and jockey, Paddy Brennan at Wetherby.
This horse had refused to race in his last two flat starts and was a touch reluctant to line up and jump off for his hurdling debut on Saturday. He was detached early and jumped the first couple of flights like he was still having second thoughts about his new career.
However, he picked up the bridle going out towards the back straight and ended up winning the race tidily. In beating Falcarragh (a solid 122 performer) by five lengths at level weights he has returned a minimum figure of 127+.
If his enthusiasm for the job can be maintained he could be an interesting recruit. Given his undoubted character and his undoubted ability he will always be an entertaining horse to keep an eye on.
This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Brilliant Cue Card lights up Haldon Gold Cup
It's an exciting time of year on the National Hunt scene as the real big guns emerge from their summer at grass, and the most thrilling performance of the week undoubtedly came in the Haldon Gold Cup, which is discussed in depth as this week's lead piece.
Conversely, the sun set on the turf Flat season at Doncaster on Saturday, and the November Handicap saw the completion of one of the sports real success stories of recent years.
CARD RIGHT ON CUE
Cue Card secured his place among the West Country legends with a scintillating victory in last week's Haldon Gold Cup, writes John de Moraville.
This 26-length romp in the highlight of Exeter's season not only boosted Cue Card's already substantial reputation but reinforced the widely held belief that Sprinter Sacre, his effortless conqueror in last season's Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham, is the most exciting two-miler we have seen for years.
Whether the pair clash again - along with unbeaten trailblazer Sanctuaire - in Sandown's Tingle Creek Chase on December 8 remains to be seen but the six-year-old's trainer Colin Tizzard has long fancied a crack at Boxing Day's King George.
Cue Card's latest victory - he has now won first time out in each of his four seasons racing - has seen his rating upped from 157 to 165. Only Sprinter Sacre (169) and Sanctuaire (166) from last season's vintage crop of novices are rated higher.
Whereas Cue Card lit up Haldon Hill with his exuberant round of jumping, principal rivals Menorah and Edgardo Sol failed to do themselves justice.
Menorah, sluggish from the start, was already well cooked when he took the final fence by the roots enabling Edgardo Sol to grab a remote second place. The latter had hindered his chances by persistently jumping out to his left.
Last season, versatile Edgardo Sol showed his best form at Aintree (destroying his rivals in the Red Rum Chase) and at Cheltenham (a close second in the County Hurdle). He should again prove a force when reverting to a left-hand track.
Early days to be talking about this season's Arkle but the admirable Overturn put down an impressive marker when soaring over Sandown's tricky fences on Saturday like an old hand.
Sure, this was only a beginners' chase and none of his three rivals rate within two stone of his 166 over hurdles but this was the perfect start from last season's Champion Hurdle runner-up. Exciting times!
THE WORK OF ART
It's been quite a journey for five-year-old gelding Art Scholar, winner of Saturday's November Handicap, writes Greg Pearson.
Originally trained by Gary Moore, he won a juvenile maiden at Bath on his debut in August 2009 and started life in handicaps with an opening mark of 93.
Ten straight defeats later he'd plummeted 41lb to a miserly 52. Enter Michael Appleby, who reportedly picked him up for £600 in April 2011 and orchestrated five handicap wins that summer on the way to an end-of-year mark of 78.
He commenced the 2012 season by winning at Kempton and scored again at Doncaster four starts later. Following a brief lull he returned to the winner's enclosure at Nottingham in October off a mark of 83 when impressing with the way he travelled and then lengthened.
His previous record from marks of 83 or above read 12 starts with one third placing and 11 unplaced efforts but he clearly relishes going on the soft side of good and has continued to thrive since then, going up a further 4lb for finishing runner-up twice and then rounding the turf season off with this valuable success.
First Mohican was a warm order as favourite with his highly-progressive profile, whilst Party Line had beaten Art Scholar at Doncaster last time, but this proved a vastly different story on revised terms.
Moving fluently, Art Scholar was initially disappointed for a run between Communicator and Samba King 3f out but was still able to stamp his authority under replacement jockey Franny Norton, forging clear to win by three-quarters of a length from the also-progressive pair of Communicator and Voodoo Prince (a further length back in third).
The fallout is that Art Scholar's mark his risen a further 6lb to 99 - a total increase of 50lb from where he was in June 2011. Quite a success story I think you'll agree.
It's an exciting time of year on the National Hunt scene as the real big guns emerge from their summer at grass, and the most thrilling performance of the week undoubtedly came in the Haldon Gold Cup, which is discussed in depth as this week's lead piece.
Conversely, the sun set on the turf Flat season at Doncaster on Saturday, and the November Handicap saw the completion of one of the sports real success stories of recent years.
CARD RIGHT ON CUE
Cue Card secured his place among the West Country legends with a scintillating victory in last week's Haldon Gold Cup, writes John de Moraville.
This 26-length romp in the highlight of Exeter's season not only boosted Cue Card's already substantial reputation but reinforced the widely held belief that Sprinter Sacre, his effortless conqueror in last season's Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham, is the most exciting two-miler we have seen for years.
Whether the pair clash again - along with unbeaten trailblazer Sanctuaire - in Sandown's Tingle Creek Chase on December 8 remains to be seen but the six-year-old's trainer Colin Tizzard has long fancied a crack at Boxing Day's King George.
Cue Card's latest victory - he has now won first time out in each of his four seasons racing - has seen his rating upped from 157 to 165. Only Sprinter Sacre (169) and Sanctuaire (166) from last season's vintage crop of novices are rated higher.
Whereas Cue Card lit up Haldon Hill with his exuberant round of jumping, principal rivals Menorah and Edgardo Sol failed to do themselves justice.
Menorah, sluggish from the start, was already well cooked when he took the final fence by the roots enabling Edgardo Sol to grab a remote second place. The latter had hindered his chances by persistently jumping out to his left.
Last season, versatile Edgardo Sol showed his best form at Aintree (destroying his rivals in the Red Rum Chase) and at Cheltenham (a close second in the County Hurdle). He should again prove a force when reverting to a left-hand track.
Early days to be talking about this season's Arkle but the admirable Overturn put down an impressive marker when soaring over Sandown's tricky fences on Saturday like an old hand.
Sure, this was only a beginners' chase and none of his three rivals rate within two stone of his 166 over hurdles but this was the perfect start from last season's Champion Hurdle runner-up. Exciting times!
THE WORK OF ART
It's been quite a journey for five-year-old gelding Art Scholar, winner of Saturday's November Handicap, writes Greg Pearson.
Originally trained by Gary Moore, he won a juvenile maiden at Bath on his debut in August 2009 and started life in handicaps with an opening mark of 93.
Ten straight defeats later he'd plummeted 41lb to a miserly 52. Enter Michael Appleby, who reportedly picked him up for £600 in April 2011 and orchestrated five handicap wins that summer on the way to an end-of-year mark of 78.
He commenced the 2012 season by winning at Kempton and scored again at Doncaster four starts later. Following a brief lull he returned to the winner's enclosure at Nottingham in October off a mark of 83 when impressing with the way he travelled and then lengthened.
His previous record from marks of 83 or above read 12 starts with one third placing and 11 unplaced efforts but he clearly relishes going on the soft side of good and has continued to thrive since then, going up a further 4lb for finishing runner-up twice and then rounding the turf season off with this valuable success.
First Mohican was a warm order as favourite with his highly-progressive profile, whilst Party Line had beaten Art Scholar at Doncaster last time, but this proved a vastly different story on revised terms.
Moving fluently, Art Scholar was initially disappointed for a run between Communicator and Samba King 3f out but was still able to stamp his authority under replacement jockey Franny Norton, forging clear to win by three-quarters of a length from the also-progressive pair of Communicator and Voodoo Prince (a further length back in third).
The fallout is that Art Scholar's mark his risen a further 6lb to 99 - a total increase of 50lb from where he was in June 2011. Quite a success story I think you'll agree.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Paddy Power run
proves class of Al Ferof
THE weekend saw the first of the National Hunt season's flagship meetings in Cheltenham's Paddy Power Open, and it offered a host of top-class jumping. Highlights of the first two days are discussed in this week's edition, and with Sunday's racing falling into the next racing week there'll be more to come next time too!
NOT SO GRANDS
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is usually one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season, but as Grands Crus continued to shorten in the pre-race betting I began to wonder if he was going to turn this year's race into a rout, writes Mark Olley
He was/is undeniably well handicapped on the pick of his hurdles form, but he hadn't quite reached that level over fences despite beating some top-class rivals in small field events. He was also having his first chase outside of novice company and was tackling a big field for the first time over fences.
During the race itself he travelled pretty well until coming under pressure before three out but then dropped out tamely. No reasons for this performance could be found immediately post-race, although he did lose a shoe, but I would be amazed if something didn't come to light once he is given a more thorough assessment back at home.
So is he well handicapped over fences? His rating won't be changed for this run so I guess we will have to wait for another day to find out!
Second season chasers have a fine record in the Paddy Power and with Grands Crus disappointing it was left to Al Ferof to uphold their reputation, something he did in fine style. This was Paul Nicholls' geldings first run in handicap company and by running out a decisive winner under 11st 8lb he confirmed himself a top-class 2m4f performer.
I based the race around the runner-up Walkon who clearly runs extremely well when fresh, having won on his reappearance last season and been denied narrowly in a handicap hurdle (from a mark of 148) the previous year. I have him returning to his best chase figure of 148 - this he achieved twice last term, in novices at Exeter and Newbury.
The above means that Al Ferof moves up 9lb to a new rating of 168. To put this into context the last five Ryanair Chase winners at the Festival have been rated 170-168-168-165-168, so this run is equal to all but one of those! Al Ferof will reportedly tackle 3m in the King George next and his season looks sure to revolve around whether he stays that longer trip. If he doesn't he must surely go very close in the Ryanair.
One other race that I assessed last week was a novice handicap at Market Rasen which resulted in a dead-heat between Alpine Breeze and Brass Tax.
Both Alpine Breeze and Brass Tax are six-year-old novices and as they dead-heated their ratings were obviously be given the exact same treatment - a raise of 4lb to 131 and 128 respectively. The race was a 0-135 novice handicap so neither has been raised out of that bracket and they can contest exactly the same class race next time.
Given the above I was intrigued to read the following analysis in the next day's Racing Post:
Alpine Breeze "...but a further rise in the weights is going to make her life really hard in handicap company."
Brass Tax "With confidence boosted, he can win again if contesting a similar event on a sound surface."
So both horses get the same rise, one will find life difficult while the other can win again! That does seem strange to me, though now I've highlighted this I will no doubt end up looking foolish as Brass Tax follows up and Alpine Breeze never wins another race!
BULLET IN NO HURRY
Friday's Cheltenham card saw the Grade 2 Opus Energy Sharp Novices' Hurdle bring together plenty of useful strands of the early season novice form, writes David Dickinson.
That was the theory and it held good, at least until the tapes went up and then...nothing.
Well, not quite nothing, a 17 second amble past the starting gate as it became very clear that no one wanted to lead. Ruby Walsh eventually bit the bullet on the appropriately named favourite and Dodging Bullets was soon setting a reasonable enough pace. Such form is invariably a nightmare to assess but four of the field appear to have run their pre-race marks to the pound.
'How very convenient' you may think, but trusting literal form lines from such a falsely run race is usually folly. However, I can find no reason to not go with that assessment for the moment at least. Dodging Bullets was a reluctant leader and has not needed to run even close to his current 150 rating to win. The 131 figure I had on Court Minstrel's previous Cheltenham win now becomes his handicap mark, as does the 127 Duke of Navan achieved on his debut.
The slight concern is that both of the above were eye-catchers to some extent on Friday. Court Minstrel found some trouble jumping the last when making his move and he left the impression that a strongly run race would suit him better. On the other hand, Duke of Navan was unconsidered in the market but he travelled really strongly in the race until just found wanting for speed in the quickening finish. His prospects will improve greatly if he eventually stays further than the minimum trip.
Saturday's novice handicap which closed the Prestbury Park card is invariably a most informative race and this year proved no exception. Those who had witnessed Friday's Newcastle win of Eduard may well have been keen on his October conqueror Ifandbutwhynot off a mark of 117 and, despite racing wide throughout, he settled well and won with a bit in hand. It may well be that if that victory of Eduard can be taken at face value (it was Eduard's hurdling debut), Ifandbutwhynot's new mark of 130 may still prove to be workable.
proves class of Al Ferof
THE weekend saw the first of the National Hunt season's flagship meetings in Cheltenham's Paddy Power Open, and it offered a host of top-class jumping. Highlights of the first two days are discussed in this week's edition, and with Sunday's racing falling into the next racing week there'll be more to come next time too!
NOT SO GRANDS
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is usually one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season, but as Grands Crus continued to shorten in the pre-race betting I began to wonder if he was going to turn this year's race into a rout, writes Mark Olley
He was/is undeniably well handicapped on the pick of his hurdles form, but he hadn't quite reached that level over fences despite beating some top-class rivals in small field events. He was also having his first chase outside of novice company and was tackling a big field for the first time over fences.
During the race itself he travelled pretty well until coming under pressure before three out but then dropped out tamely. No reasons for this performance could be found immediately post-race, although he did lose a shoe, but I would be amazed if something didn't come to light once he is given a more thorough assessment back at home.
So is he well handicapped over fences? His rating won't be changed for this run so I guess we will have to wait for another day to find out!
Second season chasers have a fine record in the Paddy Power and with Grands Crus disappointing it was left to Al Ferof to uphold their reputation, something he did in fine style. This was Paul Nicholls' geldings first run in handicap company and by running out a decisive winner under 11st 8lb he confirmed himself a top-class 2m4f performer.
I based the race around the runner-up Walkon who clearly runs extremely well when fresh, having won on his reappearance last season and been denied narrowly in a handicap hurdle (from a mark of 148) the previous year. I have him returning to his best chase figure of 148 - this he achieved twice last term, in novices at Exeter and Newbury.
The above means that Al Ferof moves up 9lb to a new rating of 168. To put this into context the last five Ryanair Chase winners at the Festival have been rated 170-168-168-165-168, so this run is equal to all but one of those! Al Ferof will reportedly tackle 3m in the King George next and his season looks sure to revolve around whether he stays that longer trip. If he doesn't he must surely go very close in the Ryanair.
One other race that I assessed last week was a novice handicap at Market Rasen which resulted in a dead-heat between Alpine Breeze and Brass Tax.
Both Alpine Breeze and Brass Tax are six-year-old novices and as they dead-heated their ratings were obviously be given the exact same treatment - a raise of 4lb to 131 and 128 respectively. The race was a 0-135 novice handicap so neither has been raised out of that bracket and they can contest exactly the same class race next time.
Given the above I was intrigued to read the following analysis in the next day's Racing Post:
Alpine Breeze "...but a further rise in the weights is going to make her life really hard in handicap company."
Brass Tax "With confidence boosted, he can win again if contesting a similar event on a sound surface."
So both horses get the same rise, one will find life difficult while the other can win again! That does seem strange to me, though now I've highlighted this I will no doubt end up looking foolish as Brass Tax follows up and Alpine Breeze never wins another race!
BULLET IN NO HURRY
Friday's Cheltenham card saw the Grade 2 Opus Energy Sharp Novices' Hurdle bring together plenty of useful strands of the early season novice form, writes David Dickinson.
That was the theory and it held good, at least until the tapes went up and then...nothing.
Well, not quite nothing, a 17 second amble past the starting gate as it became very clear that no one wanted to lead. Ruby Walsh eventually bit the bullet on the appropriately named favourite and Dodging Bullets was soon setting a reasonable enough pace. Such form is invariably a nightmare to assess but four of the field appear to have run their pre-race marks to the pound.
'How very convenient' you may think, but trusting literal form lines from such a falsely run race is usually folly. However, I can find no reason to not go with that assessment for the moment at least. Dodging Bullets was a reluctant leader and has not needed to run even close to his current 150 rating to win. The 131 figure I had on Court Minstrel's previous Cheltenham win now becomes his handicap mark, as does the 127 Duke of Navan achieved on his debut.
The slight concern is that both of the above were eye-catchers to some extent on Friday. Court Minstrel found some trouble jumping the last when making his move and he left the impression that a strongly run race would suit him better. On the other hand, Duke of Navan was unconsidered in the market but he travelled really strongly in the race until just found wanting for speed in the quickening finish. His prospects will improve greatly if he eventually stays further than the minimum trip.
Saturday's novice handicap which closed the Prestbury Park card is invariably a most informative race and this year proved no exception. Those who had witnessed Friday's Newcastle win of Eduard may well have been keen on his October conqueror Ifandbutwhynot off a mark of 117 and, despite racing wide throughout, he settled well and won with a bit in hand. It may well be that if that victory of Eduard can be taken at face value (it was Eduard's hurdling debut), Ifandbutwhynot's new mark of 130 may still prove to be workable.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Another year, another horse, same result
Saturday saw the eighth running of the Betfair Chase at Haydock and the prize yet again made its way back to Ditcheat, with Silviniaco Conti proving an able replacement for Kauto Star as he toppled the highest-rated chaser in training. Phil Smith underlines the decisions he had to make regarding the updated pecking order in this week's lead piece.
The week started with the final day of Cheltenham's Paddy Power Open meeting and a couple of the highlights from that are also included.
DECISIONS DECISIONS
The first Grade 1 chase of the 2012-13 season was a relatively straightforward race to assess in terms of performance but a difficult one to decide what rating Long Run should receive, writes Phil Smith.
Silviniaco Conti went in on 168 and Long Run on 178 but that performance from Long Run was all the way back in February.
Both Weird Al and The Giant Bolster went into the race on 164 and there was a short head between them. As they were 18 lengths clear of Cannington Brook on 145, it was reasonable to believe that they had performed to either 163 using a literal pounds per length back to the last horse who was on 145 or 164 if I decided Cannington Brook could have performed to 146 which he has in the past. Either way it was irrelevant to him as I was not going to raise his rating for finishing last.
It brought Long Run out at 167/8 which was pretty good for a first run of the season. Last year Weird Al got to within two lengths of Long Run in this race so it was encouraging to see him more than double his superiority.
I believe Silviniaco Conti won comfortably so called the winning margin 4lb and have moved his rating to 172. The biggest problem was what to do with Long Run's rating. As I had him running to 163 in the Gold Cup and under 170 here, I decided to drop him to 172 - the same as the winner. If neither run between now and the Gold Cup there will be as many people supporting one as the other and I will have them the same rating.
In the unlikely event of them running in a handicap against each other they would carry the same weight and I think it would be difficult for the public to decide which was more likely to win.
WHO'S COUNTING?
It is nine years since Martin Greenwood and I took over responsibility for the hurdlers from our retiring predecessors Phil Judge and Tony Winlaw, writes David Dickinson.
As a consequence, when history is revisited these days there is no one else to blame. Nevertheless, a recent query from a journalist as to why an Irish-trained horse 'always' won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival did seem a tad harsh.
In the nine County Hurdles for which I had done the majority of the handicapping, Irish trained horses have won five, although all those five have come in the last six years.
In defence however, I would point to the starting 0rices - 10-1, 12-1, 20-1 twice and 50-1. Add to that the fact that the only one who won by more than a length was future multiple Grade 1 winner Thousand Stars and I don't feel too dismayed.
The reason I mention this now is that the journalist in question neglected to enquire about the Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood) which Irish-trained horses have won just twice in the same period. This year Ireland fielded seven of the 18 runners and only the third-placed Cause Of Causes made it into the first four, albeit with four more in the first nine.
This year's renewal fell to the Tom George-trained Olofi, who was certainly not winning a major handicap out of turn. Fifth in the equivalent race in 2010 and second to Brampour last year off a 6lb lower mark, Olofi's day in the sun was briefly threatened when he was hampered turning for home but he ended up a tidy two and a half length winner.
I used two Irish-trained horses as my markers (Rattan and Glam Gerry) and have raised Olofi 8lb to a career high of 144. This was Olofi's first run since the County Hurdle in March and it seemed to escape many people's notice just how unlucky and eventually heavily eased he was in what turned into a very rough race that day.
No doubt, as the winter progresses the handicapping system will be accused of bias against various interest groups (novices, older horses, big trainers, small trainers, northern trainers, Irish trainers). All any of us on the team can do is our best and hope that events show us in a decent light.
So Sunday's result of an established horse beating an ex-Irish second-season novice running for a new yard (very probably in first time earplugs), beating an Irish-trained horse beating a northern-trained horse can be regarded as satisfactory.
However, in this job, the moment you feel the slightest bit complacent, events have a very nasty habit of kicking your backside, big time.
STAYING ON
There were several smart performances in the staying hurdle ranks last week and the best of all came from Trustan Times in the Grade 3 Betfair Don't Settle For Less "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, writes Graeme Smith.
In a competitive race, where no fewer than four took the second last in a line, Tim Easterby's six-year-old produced a strong-staying performance under top weight to assert over the unexposed Holywell after the last.
He'd gone up 8lb to a mark of 142 following his comeback success over 2m4f at Wetherby and comes in for a similar rise to 150 now. That's not far off what's required to make an impact in some of the top staying hurdles, at least if he can avoid Big Buck's.
Jonjo O'Neill's Holywell has yet to win from three starts in handicap company but he's improved each time and clearly relished the further step up in trip as he went down fighting. A 5lb rise to 135 means he'll get a 3lb pull with Trustan Times for this two and three-quarter lengths beating should the pair reoppose in a handicap. I used the consistent Sivola De Sivola as a guide to the strength of the form and increased his mark by just 1lb for finishing a clear third.
It's also worth mentioning David Pipe's French import Katkeau , who had still to be asked for his effort within four lengths of the leaders when a terrible mistake three out put paid to his chance - and injured his rider. It's impossible to know how big a part he'd have played but I'm sure he'll have his supporters next time from his existing mark of 124.
My week has been bookended by good-quality handicaps as I got off and running with the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, which went the way of Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Double Ross. It proved a bloodless victory too, Double Ross jumping very cleanly in front and then running away from the field after the second last, slamming Close House by an ever-increasing eight lengths.
There was enough solid form amongst the next few home to make this a relatively straightforward race to level. On a line through Close House's fourth behind Simonsig in last season's Baring Bingham (form which is proving strong) and San Telm's recent handicap success I arrived at a rise of 12lb for Double Ross to 142, which included an extra 2lb on top of the bare margin due to the fact he was still drawing away at the line.
I was obviously looking for a good run when Double Ross was turned out in a 2m4f handicap at Haydock on Saturday under a 7lb penalty (which meant he was 5lb well in) and feel his rise was justified by his performance even though he was unable to win.
He again jumped very accurately for the most part out in front and was still there until making a mess of the last. Whether he'd have held on without that mistake is impossible to know - he tired markedly on the run-in - but there's no doubt in my mind that he was still on a good mark.
Saturday saw the eighth running of the Betfair Chase at Haydock and the prize yet again made its way back to Ditcheat, with Silviniaco Conti proving an able replacement for Kauto Star as he toppled the highest-rated chaser in training. Phil Smith underlines the decisions he had to make regarding the updated pecking order in this week's lead piece.
The week started with the final day of Cheltenham's Paddy Power Open meeting and a couple of the highlights from that are also included.
DECISIONS DECISIONS
The first Grade 1 chase of the 2012-13 season was a relatively straightforward race to assess in terms of performance but a difficult one to decide what rating Long Run should receive, writes Phil Smith.
Silviniaco Conti went in on 168 and Long Run on 178 but that performance from Long Run was all the way back in February.
Both Weird Al and The Giant Bolster went into the race on 164 and there was a short head between them. As they were 18 lengths clear of Cannington Brook on 145, it was reasonable to believe that they had performed to either 163 using a literal pounds per length back to the last horse who was on 145 or 164 if I decided Cannington Brook could have performed to 146 which he has in the past. Either way it was irrelevant to him as I was not going to raise his rating for finishing last.
It brought Long Run out at 167/8 which was pretty good for a first run of the season. Last year Weird Al got to within two lengths of Long Run in this race so it was encouraging to see him more than double his superiority.
I believe Silviniaco Conti won comfortably so called the winning margin 4lb and have moved his rating to 172. The biggest problem was what to do with Long Run's rating. As I had him running to 163 in the Gold Cup and under 170 here, I decided to drop him to 172 - the same as the winner. If neither run between now and the Gold Cup there will be as many people supporting one as the other and I will have them the same rating.
In the unlikely event of them running in a handicap against each other they would carry the same weight and I think it would be difficult for the public to decide which was more likely to win.
WHO'S COUNTING?
It is nine years since Martin Greenwood and I took over responsibility for the hurdlers from our retiring predecessors Phil Judge and Tony Winlaw, writes David Dickinson.
As a consequence, when history is revisited these days there is no one else to blame. Nevertheless, a recent query from a journalist as to why an Irish-trained horse 'always' won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival did seem a tad harsh.
In the nine County Hurdles for which I had done the majority of the handicapping, Irish trained horses have won five, although all those five have come in the last six years.
In defence however, I would point to the starting 0rices - 10-1, 12-1, 20-1 twice and 50-1. Add to that the fact that the only one who won by more than a length was future multiple Grade 1 winner Thousand Stars and I don't feel too dismayed.
The reason I mention this now is that the journalist in question neglected to enquire about the Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood) which Irish-trained horses have won just twice in the same period. This year Ireland fielded seven of the 18 runners and only the third-placed Cause Of Causes made it into the first four, albeit with four more in the first nine.
This year's renewal fell to the Tom George-trained Olofi, who was certainly not winning a major handicap out of turn. Fifth in the equivalent race in 2010 and second to Brampour last year off a 6lb lower mark, Olofi's day in the sun was briefly threatened when he was hampered turning for home but he ended up a tidy two and a half length winner.
I used two Irish-trained horses as my markers (Rattan and Glam Gerry) and have raised Olofi 8lb to a career high of 144. This was Olofi's first run since the County Hurdle in March and it seemed to escape many people's notice just how unlucky and eventually heavily eased he was in what turned into a very rough race that day.
No doubt, as the winter progresses the handicapping system will be accused of bias against various interest groups (novices, older horses, big trainers, small trainers, northern trainers, Irish trainers). All any of us on the team can do is our best and hope that events show us in a decent light.
So Sunday's result of an established horse beating an ex-Irish second-season novice running for a new yard (very probably in first time earplugs), beating an Irish-trained horse beating a northern-trained horse can be regarded as satisfactory.
However, in this job, the moment you feel the slightest bit complacent, events have a very nasty habit of kicking your backside, big time.
STAYING ON
There were several smart performances in the staying hurdle ranks last week and the best of all came from Trustan Times in the Grade 3 Betfair Don't Settle For Less "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, writes Graeme Smith.
In a competitive race, where no fewer than four took the second last in a line, Tim Easterby's six-year-old produced a strong-staying performance under top weight to assert over the unexposed Holywell after the last.
He'd gone up 8lb to a mark of 142 following his comeback success over 2m4f at Wetherby and comes in for a similar rise to 150 now. That's not far off what's required to make an impact in some of the top staying hurdles, at least if he can avoid Big Buck's.
Jonjo O'Neill's Holywell has yet to win from three starts in handicap company but he's improved each time and clearly relished the further step up in trip as he went down fighting. A 5lb rise to 135 means he'll get a 3lb pull with Trustan Times for this two and three-quarter lengths beating should the pair reoppose in a handicap. I used the consistent Sivola De Sivola as a guide to the strength of the form and increased his mark by just 1lb for finishing a clear third.
It's also worth mentioning David Pipe's French import Katkeau , who had still to be asked for his effort within four lengths of the leaders when a terrible mistake three out put paid to his chance - and injured his rider. It's impossible to know how big a part he'd have played but I'm sure he'll have his supporters next time from his existing mark of 124.
My week has been bookended by good-quality handicaps as I got off and running with the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, which went the way of Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Double Ross. It proved a bloodless victory too, Double Ross jumping very cleanly in front and then running away from the field after the second last, slamming Close House by an ever-increasing eight lengths.
There was enough solid form amongst the next few home to make this a relatively straightforward race to level. On a line through Close House's fourth behind Simonsig in last season's Baring Bingham (form which is proving strong) and San Telm's recent handicap success I arrived at a rise of 12lb for Double Ross to 142, which included an extra 2lb on top of the bare margin due to the fact he was still drawing away at the line.
I was obviously looking for a good run when Double Ross was turned out in a 2m4f handicap at Haydock on Saturday under a 7lb penalty (which meant he was 5lb well in) and feel his rise was justified by his performance even though he was unable to win.
He again jumped very accurately for the most part out in front and was still there until making a mess of the last. Whether he'd have held on without that mistake is impossible to know - he tired markedly on the run-in - but there's no doubt in my mind that he was still on a good mark.
EC1
On a break
Steve
As I had him running to 163 in the Gold Cup and under 170 here,
so it wasn't brain surgery after all
As I had him running to 163 in the Gold Cup and under 170 here,
so it wasn't brain surgery after all
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Sacre simply superb
in Tingle Creek blitz
Sprinter Sacre might have missed his prep at Cheltenham three weeks back, but the highest-rated novice chaser in classifications history nevertheless gave an imperious performance in Saturday's Tingle Creek.
He's had the headline writers reaching for superlatives all weekend and John de Moraville takes this opportunity to quantify what he actually achieved. Sandown wasn't the only flagship card to take place over the weekend and the other highlights are also discussed.
SACRE-STONISHING
Sprinter Sacre has swept to the top of this season's steeplechase rankings with his stunning Tingle Creek demolition job at Sandown on Saturday, writes John de Moraville.
No sooner had one superstar, Kauto Star - a dual Tingle Creek winner himself - slipped gracefully into retirement than Sprinter Sacre grabbed the spotlight with an awesome exhibition of pace, power and precision.
In truth, the much anticipated duel with Sanctuaire never really materialised. The trailblazer's sting had been drawn before the Pond Fence three from home and from there on it was the Sprinter Sacre show as, to the roar of the crowd, the unbeaten six-year-old, with Barry Geraghty motionless, turned the race into a procession.
Already the highest-rated novice chaser (169) in classifications history, Sprinter Sacre extended his mark on Saturday to 179 - the same performance figure recorded by Moscow Flyer in his legendary Tingle Creek victory of 2004.
That stirring success was gained at the expense of Azertyuiop and Well Chief, both rated 178 and champions themselves in most other years, and will never be forgotten by those lucky enough to witness it.
Moscow Flyer went on to hit the magic 180 at Cheltenham the following March. And, while Saturday's race did not possess the strength in depth of that epic of eight years ago, there is no reason why Sprinter Sacre, who strode majestically around the Sandown parade ring as if he owned the place, should not go on to rate even higher.
And you would not bet against him threatening the 186 achieved by Master Minded in his mind-boggling 19 lengths Cheltenham thrashing of the previous year's champion Voy Por Ustedes in 2008.
With Sprinter Sacre on his tail, Sanctuaire ran over a stone below the 166 of his Celebration Chase rout at Sandown last spring. His efforts to stretch the 4-11 favourite left him cooked before the final fence, allowing the admirable but inferior Kumbeshwar, in the field to pick up third-place money, to exceed connections' expectations and, at the same time, notch a career-best 150.
Reflecting on Sprinter Sacre's seven-length Racing Post Arkle Trophy saunter in March, it was always odds-on that he would leave last season's 169 behind. Consider the next three home in that festival showpiece - Cue Card, Menorah and Al Ferof.
Respectively, they have since won the Haldon Gold Cup (by twenty-six lengths!), Aintree's Grade 1 Manifesto Chase and Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup. That represents astonishing form...and Sprinter Sacre never came off the bridle!
While never likely to hit the rarefied heights of his celebrated stable-companion, Captain Conan maintained an exemplary start to his fencing career with a fluent all-the-way win in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase.
Running to a mark of 152, the admirable five-year-old negotiated the tricky Sandown fences like an old hand to strongly advertise his own Arkle claims.
While he may not be his stable's first string for that event, Captain Conan already has smart chase form on the board, whereas the exciting Simonsig, rated 160 over hurdles, is due to open his first innings over fences at Ascot before Christmas.
BEST BUD
With Phil Smith away it fell to me to assess the 3m+ chases this week and the highlight was the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday, writes Mark Olley.
Nigel Twiston-Davies' veteran Hello Bud came with a fine record over the National fences and gained his second Becher success in really game fashion as he held on all out from Join Together. Very few 14-year-olds are still in training and even fewer win races, so it was grand to see he's still a force at such a ripe old age.
The race was relatively easy to assess with less than three lengths covering the first five. Hello Bud moves up 3lb from the 130 he raced from here to a new figure of 133 (the figure he won this race from in 2010), while Join Together moves up 2lb to a figure of 150. Aintree stalwart Big Fella Thanks stays where he is on 145, and I expect this is his ideal race as he doesn't seem to quite get home over 4m4f in the National.
The National was mentioned for Hello Bud in some post-race reports, but the lowest rated horse in last year's race was 137, so I imagine he would need to win again to ensure he makes the field.
If the National winner was in this race then it could be Join Together. He is rising eight, stays really well and has a touch of class - as last year's form with Silviniaco Conti and Champion Court confirms.
Another performance worth mentioning was Bold Sir Brian at Sandown on Friday. I am not planning to raise his rating from 155 for this effort as I don't think Pacha Du Polder stayed this longer 3m trip and I wouldn't want to raise Triolo D'Alene from 136 for finishing third.
The Gold Cup was put up in the Racing Post as an option for this season. That may come a bit soon as his jumping is still a bit novicey, but he is a likeable sort with great potential and I can see him making the top grade given time.
MAKING THEIR NAME
There were several smart performances in the middle-distance hurdle races over the last week, writes Chris Nash.
In the Grade 2 Winter Novices Hurdle at Sandown on Friday Taquin Du Seuil shaped like a horse of considerable promise when not having to be fully extended to take the prize. He beat a last-time-out winner in the shape of Le Bec by six lengths with a further six lengths back to Southfield Theatre in third. Le Bec gets an opening hurdle rating of 130 and as Taquin du Seuil received 4lb from him he ran a bare figure of 132+.
It is not always easy to assess the ease of a victory, but I have little doubt that the margin could have been five lengths further at least and so the winner will be rated 137. His victory paid a compliment to the form of My Tent Or Yours who beat him at Ascot last time out and both horses have the potential to take high rank amongst this season's novices.
At Aintree on Saturday there was a dazzling performance in the 2m4f handicap by Bear's Affair. Lining up off a mark of 140 and carrying top weight he fairly cruised home by 10 lengths. The ground on the hurdles course at Aintree did look to be riding particularly testing, which can exaggerate the margins between horses but it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of this victory.
I have no doubt that the performance warrants a double figure rise and settled on a 12lb addition to a mark of 152. Bear's Affair had embarked on a novice chasing career this time last year but failed to win in three runs. His victory on Saturday, however, took his record over hurdles to four wins from four runs and his form has a very progressive look to it.
Another terrific weight-carrying performance was put up by Kentford Grey Lady. She too lugged top weight (11st 12lb) to victory, this time at Sandown. She was last seen chasing home Quevega at Cheltenham and lined up on Saturday with a rating of 135.
The race looked competitive beforehand (as betting of 4-1 the field seemed to confirm) and plenty of the field of ten had a chance turning in. The winner prevailed by two and a quarter lengths from One Lucky Lady with a short head back to Tempest Lady in third, and it is fair to assume that Justazippy would also have been involved but for capsizing at the last. With a competitive enough finish achieved there is no need for major reconstructive surgery to the ratings of those involved.
The winner will go up 4lb to a mark of 139 and the unlucky Justazippy will incur a 3lb rise having been rated as likely to finish a close second but for her mishap. Connections indicated that another crack at Quevega at Cheltenham next year was again part of their plans.
This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
in Tingle Creek blitz
Sprinter Sacre might have missed his prep at Cheltenham three weeks back, but the highest-rated novice chaser in classifications history nevertheless gave an imperious performance in Saturday's Tingle Creek.
He's had the headline writers reaching for superlatives all weekend and John de Moraville takes this opportunity to quantify what he actually achieved. Sandown wasn't the only flagship card to take place over the weekend and the other highlights are also discussed.
SACRE-STONISHING
Sprinter Sacre has swept to the top of this season's steeplechase rankings with his stunning Tingle Creek demolition job at Sandown on Saturday, writes John de Moraville.
No sooner had one superstar, Kauto Star - a dual Tingle Creek winner himself - slipped gracefully into retirement than Sprinter Sacre grabbed the spotlight with an awesome exhibition of pace, power and precision.
In truth, the much anticipated duel with Sanctuaire never really materialised. The trailblazer's sting had been drawn before the Pond Fence three from home and from there on it was the Sprinter Sacre show as, to the roar of the crowd, the unbeaten six-year-old, with Barry Geraghty motionless, turned the race into a procession.
Already the highest-rated novice chaser (169) in classifications history, Sprinter Sacre extended his mark on Saturday to 179 - the same performance figure recorded by Moscow Flyer in his legendary Tingle Creek victory of 2004.
That stirring success was gained at the expense of Azertyuiop and Well Chief, both rated 178 and champions themselves in most other years, and will never be forgotten by those lucky enough to witness it.
Moscow Flyer went on to hit the magic 180 at Cheltenham the following March. And, while Saturday's race did not possess the strength in depth of that epic of eight years ago, there is no reason why Sprinter Sacre, who strode majestically around the Sandown parade ring as if he owned the place, should not go on to rate even higher.
And you would not bet against him threatening the 186 achieved by Master Minded in his mind-boggling 19 lengths Cheltenham thrashing of the previous year's champion Voy Por Ustedes in 2008.
With Sprinter Sacre on his tail, Sanctuaire ran over a stone below the 166 of his Celebration Chase rout at Sandown last spring. His efforts to stretch the 4-11 favourite left him cooked before the final fence, allowing the admirable but inferior Kumbeshwar, in the field to pick up third-place money, to exceed connections' expectations and, at the same time, notch a career-best 150.
Reflecting on Sprinter Sacre's seven-length Racing Post Arkle Trophy saunter in March, it was always odds-on that he would leave last season's 169 behind. Consider the next three home in that festival showpiece - Cue Card, Menorah and Al Ferof.
Respectively, they have since won the Haldon Gold Cup (by twenty-six lengths!), Aintree's Grade 1 Manifesto Chase and Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup. That represents astonishing form...and Sprinter Sacre never came off the bridle!
While never likely to hit the rarefied heights of his celebrated stable-companion, Captain Conan maintained an exemplary start to his fencing career with a fluent all-the-way win in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase.
Running to a mark of 152, the admirable five-year-old negotiated the tricky Sandown fences like an old hand to strongly advertise his own Arkle claims.
While he may not be his stable's first string for that event, Captain Conan already has smart chase form on the board, whereas the exciting Simonsig, rated 160 over hurdles, is due to open his first innings over fences at Ascot before Christmas.
BEST BUD
With Phil Smith away it fell to me to assess the 3m+ chases this week and the highlight was the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday, writes Mark Olley.
Nigel Twiston-Davies' veteran Hello Bud came with a fine record over the National fences and gained his second Becher success in really game fashion as he held on all out from Join Together. Very few 14-year-olds are still in training and even fewer win races, so it was grand to see he's still a force at such a ripe old age.
The race was relatively easy to assess with less than three lengths covering the first five. Hello Bud moves up 3lb from the 130 he raced from here to a new figure of 133 (the figure he won this race from in 2010), while Join Together moves up 2lb to a figure of 150. Aintree stalwart Big Fella Thanks stays where he is on 145, and I expect this is his ideal race as he doesn't seem to quite get home over 4m4f in the National.
The National was mentioned for Hello Bud in some post-race reports, but the lowest rated horse in last year's race was 137, so I imagine he would need to win again to ensure he makes the field.
If the National winner was in this race then it could be Join Together. He is rising eight, stays really well and has a touch of class - as last year's form with Silviniaco Conti and Champion Court confirms.
Another performance worth mentioning was Bold Sir Brian at Sandown on Friday. I am not planning to raise his rating from 155 for this effort as I don't think Pacha Du Polder stayed this longer 3m trip and I wouldn't want to raise Triolo D'Alene from 136 for finishing third.
The Gold Cup was put up in the Racing Post as an option for this season. That may come a bit soon as his jumping is still a bit novicey, but he is a likeable sort with great potential and I can see him making the top grade given time.
MAKING THEIR NAME
There were several smart performances in the middle-distance hurdle races over the last week, writes Chris Nash.
In the Grade 2 Winter Novices Hurdle at Sandown on Friday Taquin Du Seuil shaped like a horse of considerable promise when not having to be fully extended to take the prize. He beat a last-time-out winner in the shape of Le Bec by six lengths with a further six lengths back to Southfield Theatre in third. Le Bec gets an opening hurdle rating of 130 and as Taquin du Seuil received 4lb from him he ran a bare figure of 132+.
It is not always easy to assess the ease of a victory, but I have little doubt that the margin could have been five lengths further at least and so the winner will be rated 137. His victory paid a compliment to the form of My Tent Or Yours who beat him at Ascot last time out and both horses have the potential to take high rank amongst this season's novices.
At Aintree on Saturday there was a dazzling performance in the 2m4f handicap by Bear's Affair. Lining up off a mark of 140 and carrying top weight he fairly cruised home by 10 lengths. The ground on the hurdles course at Aintree did look to be riding particularly testing, which can exaggerate the margins between horses but it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of this victory.
I have no doubt that the performance warrants a double figure rise and settled on a 12lb addition to a mark of 152. Bear's Affair had embarked on a novice chasing career this time last year but failed to win in three runs. His victory on Saturday, however, took his record over hurdles to four wins from four runs and his form has a very progressive look to it.
Another terrific weight-carrying performance was put up by Kentford Grey Lady. She too lugged top weight (11st 12lb) to victory, this time at Sandown. She was last seen chasing home Quevega at Cheltenham and lined up on Saturday with a rating of 135.
The race looked competitive beforehand (as betting of 4-1 the field seemed to confirm) and plenty of the field of ten had a chance turning in. The winner prevailed by two and a quarter lengths from One Lucky Lady with a short head back to Tempest Lady in third, and it is fair to assume that Justazippy would also have been involved but for capsizing at the last. With a competitive enough finish achieved there is no need for major reconstructive surgery to the ratings of those involved.
The winner will go up 4lb to a mark of 139 and the unlucky Justazippy will incur a 3lb rise having been rated as likely to finish a close second but for her mishap. Connections indicated that another crack at Quevega at Cheltenham next year was again part of their plans.
This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
EC1
On a break
for a 15 length win he has given SS a superiority of 29lbs????
personally i think SS might be a 200/210 horse..but if i was paid to give horses ratings i couldn't justify 179..purely on Kumbeshar being so close
like i said earlier..my opinion of how much a horse has in hand will differ from everyone else's..I can't see how you can just pull a figure out of the air like that without some reasoning behind it simply because a horse going easily can find a number of things..bugger all or lots being two of them
Before the race it was clear that Sanctuaire has never shown his best before the new year...so whatever he did Saturday was unlikely to represent his true rating...as a rating tool he doesn't exist in this race
personally i think SS might be a 200/210 horse..but if i was paid to give horses ratings i couldn't justify 179..purely on Kumbeshar being so close
like i said earlier..my opinion of how much a horse has in hand will differ from everyone else's..I can't see how you can just pull a figure out of the air like that without some reasoning behind it simply because a horse going easily can find a number of things..bugger all or lots being two of them
Before the race it was clear that Sanctuaire has never shown his best before the new year...so whatever he did Saturday was unlikely to represent his true rating...as a rating tool he doesn't exist in this race
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Kumbeshwar is an open book. He's has 20 starts in Jumps races, and a dozen over fences including Saturday. He ran to consistent marks in the low 140's in each of his six pervious chase starts, but we're now expected to believe be's improved a half-stone?
And even if we were to accept the half-stone phantom improvement, how the handicapper arrives at 179 for SS for 15L against an animal be himself rates 150, is the next elephant in the room.
There must be a new Super-Handicapper working for the BHA; an advanced being who thinks in an additional dimension where all these numbers stack up.
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Is he that unexposed? And he was beaten 10 lengths at Chepstow in a weak handicap off a mark of 144.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,001
There is the explanation.
In translation:
He's obviously as good as anything we've seen but hasn't yet won the QM so we'll rate him alongside one of the best previous winnners of this race regardless of how the form lines stack up and expect him to be at least as good as previous top winners of the QM.
Which is pretty much what most of us are saying.
I had SS on 170++ going into the race and will probably have him on 169++ for that performance. I had Sanctuaire on 160++ but he'll be below 150 for his. That was one race.
I don't imagine anyone believed Shergar ran to form when beaten by Cut Above so why should anyone believe Sanctuaire ran to form when beaten by Kumbeshwar.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Agreed, DO.
It's a summary of how that 179 sits in a historical context. It merely states the rating as fact, and then gives a list of horses of similar merit.
In fact, it strikes me also that he's rated the race rather than the form; perhaps equating any type of 'command performance' very highly by default, simply because it's the Tingle Creek and it 'always throws superlative winners'?
If that's the case, it might go some say to explaining the litany of bizarre (my view) OR's that he launches about the the top-end of the spectrum.
It's a summary of how that 179 sits in a historical context. It merely states the rating as fact, and then gives a list of horses of similar merit.
In fact, it strikes me also that he's rated the race rather than the form; perhaps equating any type of 'command performance' very highly by default, simply because it's the Tingle Creek and it 'always throws superlative winners'?
If that's the case, it might go some say to explaining the litany of bizarre (my view) OR's that he launches about the the top-end of the spectrum.
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granger
Senior Jockey
What are the ratings experts verdicts on the 173 dished out to Flemenstar by Timeform?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Somewhat surprised there still isn't a p attached to it.
granger
Senior Jockey
You and me both
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,001
ORs don't have 'p' or 'P' or '+'
I reckon I'd lose a fortune if I didn't have my symbols to help me interpret improvement or regression.
I don't have a problem with the OH factoring in a few pounds for ease or manner of victory. In fact, I think it's good that they do but I think they should give reasons punters can understand, even if they disagree.
If I see a horse ten lengths clear and it eases down to a three length win, I'll rate it value for the ten. If I horse edges three lengths in front and wins without being asked to do more, I'll rate it a 3L winner but add a symbol and keep an idea in mind about how much more to expect it to show if pressed. It can only ever be educated guesswork whereas there is more empirical evidence in the former scenario.
I reckon I'd lose a fortune if I didn't have my symbols to help me interpret improvement or regression.
I don't have a problem with the OH factoring in a few pounds for ease or manner of victory. In fact, I think it's good that they do but I think they should give reasons punters can understand, even if they disagree.
If I see a horse ten lengths clear and it eases down to a three length win, I'll rate it value for the ten. If I horse edges three lengths in front and wins without being asked to do more, I'll rate it a 3L winner but add a symbol and keep an idea in mind about how much more to expect it to show if pressed. It can only ever be educated guesswork whereas there is more empirical evidence in the former scenario.
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Anyone watched the Arkle back recently? I thought SS came off the bridle in the last furlong; he had to be pushed out at least.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
He needs to get a bloody grip of himself.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Champion trio do claims no harm in International.
Quite how much influence the result of Saturday's Stan James.com International Hurdle may have on the Champion Hurdle come March given the prevailing conditions is open to debate but surely connections of the three main protagonists will all have taken heart from the performance of their horses at the weekend, writes David Dickinson.
Zarkandar backed up his Wincanton lifetime best (on figures at least) by winning again in receipt of 4lb from his main rivals. Last year Grandouet won this race in receipt of 4lb from the subsequent Champion Hurdle runner-up Overturn before meeting with a setback.
A year on, he returned to the track in defeat but given his concession of weight to the winner he comes out of the race as the best horse on the day. Current Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby was hardly disgraced either on his first run since Grand National day, looking the likely winner for much of the long run from two out to the last only to flatten that flight and appear to blow up on the run in.
I have used Grandouet as my marker horse reproducing last year's 166, which means Zarkandar has not had to run to the 168 he achieved at Wincanton (Prospect Wells has subsequently let that form down but the third, Balder Succes, has franked it).
I have left Rock On Ruby on the 170 he achieved in March and was a little surprised to hear quotes as long as 12-1 for a repeat in the immediate aftermath of the race. Such quotes fly in the face of statistics if nothing else, as the title has been successfully defended eleven times since 1968.
Small fields in conditions races is a perennial subject, so well done to Middleham Park Racing for providing two of Saturday's seven-runner field. In finishing fourth and fifth, the duo (Mad Moose and Minella Theatre) picked up over £10,000 for connections. I have Minella Theatre running to a figure in the mid 120s (he went into the race rated 111) having beaten a couple of higher rated opponents. However, on reflection I decided that the reason for this was that his stamina came into play in a pretty truly run race.
I have therefore, left his mark unchanged. So, between the two horses, a five-figure sum pocketed and not a single pound rise in their handicap marks, the stuff that dreams are made of!
BATCHELOR PARTY
Coneygree cemented his place at the top of the staying novice hurdle tree with a comprehensive victory in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Bristol Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.
Ridden by regular pilot Mattie Batchelor, Carruthers' relation Coneygree had looked a smart prospect when winning over a shorter distance on the same course in November. He made all the running on that occasion, and followed suit over this 3m trip.
Chief rival and smart chaser Aerial, receiving 7lb, had totally different tactics adopted and travelled strongly under a confident Ruby Walsh ride. However, when push came to shove Aerial was comfortably outstayed up the hill, with Coneygree pulling six lengths clear.
Coneygree's pre-race rating of 146 made him top of the tree in his division, and using standards as an initial guide his new figure of 150 puts him clear of his domestic rivals (two very interesting recruits turned up at Navan on Sunday in Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack who will be rated in a similar ballpark). Aerial performed well below his chase form but left the strong impression he will do better given a less testing set of circumstances (all his previous runs have been up to 2m5f).
HEREFORD REMEMBERED
When news of Hereford Racecourse's impending closure first broke in late July I felt more than a tinge of sadness, writes David Dickinson.
Not because Hereford was a great track, in truth it wasn't but every returning visit brought reminders of some great experiences that I had at the venue over the years. My very first visit being a case in point.
I started freelancing doing comments in running for Raceform in 1982, in itself a great experience. I was interviewed and passed as competant by the late, much missed Steve Boggett and was used as ‘second man' to the likes of John Hanmer, John Penney, Ivor Markham, Alan Amies, the late Di Matthews and just occasionally their senior man at the time, John Sharratt, who passed away earlier this year.
At that time there were always two people at each meeting except on Easter Monday which traditionally featured sixteen meetings, twelve of them jumping. My first ‘solo' day was duly allocated to me in 1983, at Hereford - a long drive from my then base on the Northamptonshire/Cambridgeshire border and featuring eight races with well over a hundred runners, a baptism of fire.
On arrival, I discovered there were two of us in the Press Room, myself and Stewart Brodkin (who still works in racing) returning the starting prices. It was a stressful experience but one I enjoyed immensely, although I wouldn't want to study the form book comments from that day too closely!
From then on my days at Hereford were limited by geography but with Raceform's local man, Ivor Markham, working for the BBC at Aintree, I tended to end up there every Grand National day. One sticks in my mind. Dropping my then fiancee of with her parents in Redditch, I was asked what would win the National.
I replied confidently Last Suspect. My future father-in-law took no notice of me but my soon to be mother-in-law did. Sadly, the marriage didn't last the course but Last Suspect did and I am still very friendly with my one-time mother-in-law.
Hereford wasn't the sort of place to go to see great horses. The very day of Last Suspect's National win ended at Hereford as it usually did with a bumper. However, the 1985 one was no ordinary bumper - the 25-length winner was no lesser mare than the debutante Mrs Muck, probably the best horse I ever saw run at the track.
Just as I mourn the passing of Steve Boggett and John Sharratt, a piece of me mourns Hereford.
This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
Quite how much influence the result of Saturday's Stan James.com International Hurdle may have on the Champion Hurdle come March given the prevailing conditions is open to debate but surely connections of the three main protagonists will all have taken heart from the performance of their horses at the weekend, writes David Dickinson.
Zarkandar backed up his Wincanton lifetime best (on figures at least) by winning again in receipt of 4lb from his main rivals. Last year Grandouet won this race in receipt of 4lb from the subsequent Champion Hurdle runner-up Overturn before meeting with a setback.
A year on, he returned to the track in defeat but given his concession of weight to the winner he comes out of the race as the best horse on the day. Current Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby was hardly disgraced either on his first run since Grand National day, looking the likely winner for much of the long run from two out to the last only to flatten that flight and appear to blow up on the run in.
I have used Grandouet as my marker horse reproducing last year's 166, which means Zarkandar has not had to run to the 168 he achieved at Wincanton (Prospect Wells has subsequently let that form down but the third, Balder Succes, has franked it).
I have left Rock On Ruby on the 170 he achieved in March and was a little surprised to hear quotes as long as 12-1 for a repeat in the immediate aftermath of the race. Such quotes fly in the face of statistics if nothing else, as the title has been successfully defended eleven times since 1968.
Small fields in conditions races is a perennial subject, so well done to Middleham Park Racing for providing two of Saturday's seven-runner field. In finishing fourth and fifth, the duo (Mad Moose and Minella Theatre) picked up over £10,000 for connections. I have Minella Theatre running to a figure in the mid 120s (he went into the race rated 111) having beaten a couple of higher rated opponents. However, on reflection I decided that the reason for this was that his stamina came into play in a pretty truly run race.
I have therefore, left his mark unchanged. So, between the two horses, a five-figure sum pocketed and not a single pound rise in their handicap marks, the stuff that dreams are made of!
BATCHELOR PARTY
Coneygree cemented his place at the top of the staying novice hurdle tree with a comprehensive victory in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Bristol Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.
Ridden by regular pilot Mattie Batchelor, Carruthers' relation Coneygree had looked a smart prospect when winning over a shorter distance on the same course in November. He made all the running on that occasion, and followed suit over this 3m trip.
Chief rival and smart chaser Aerial, receiving 7lb, had totally different tactics adopted and travelled strongly under a confident Ruby Walsh ride. However, when push came to shove Aerial was comfortably outstayed up the hill, with Coneygree pulling six lengths clear.
Coneygree's pre-race rating of 146 made him top of the tree in his division, and using standards as an initial guide his new figure of 150 puts him clear of his domestic rivals (two very interesting recruits turned up at Navan on Sunday in Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack who will be rated in a similar ballpark). Aerial performed well below his chase form but left the strong impression he will do better given a less testing set of circumstances (all his previous runs have been up to 2m5f).
HEREFORD REMEMBERED
When news of Hereford Racecourse's impending closure first broke in late July I felt more than a tinge of sadness, writes David Dickinson.
Not because Hereford was a great track, in truth it wasn't but every returning visit brought reminders of some great experiences that I had at the venue over the years. My very first visit being a case in point.
I started freelancing doing comments in running for Raceform in 1982, in itself a great experience. I was interviewed and passed as competant by the late, much missed Steve Boggett and was used as ‘second man' to the likes of John Hanmer, John Penney, Ivor Markham, Alan Amies, the late Di Matthews and just occasionally their senior man at the time, John Sharratt, who passed away earlier this year.
At that time there were always two people at each meeting except on Easter Monday which traditionally featured sixteen meetings, twelve of them jumping. My first ‘solo' day was duly allocated to me in 1983, at Hereford - a long drive from my then base on the Northamptonshire/Cambridgeshire border and featuring eight races with well over a hundred runners, a baptism of fire.
On arrival, I discovered there were two of us in the Press Room, myself and Stewart Brodkin (who still works in racing) returning the starting prices. It was a stressful experience but one I enjoyed immensely, although I wouldn't want to study the form book comments from that day too closely!
From then on my days at Hereford were limited by geography but with Raceform's local man, Ivor Markham, working for the BBC at Aintree, I tended to end up there every Grand National day. One sticks in my mind. Dropping my then fiancee of with her parents in Redditch, I was asked what would win the National.
I replied confidently Last Suspect. My future father-in-law took no notice of me but my soon to be mother-in-law did. Sadly, the marriage didn't last the course but Last Suspect did and I am still very friendly with my one-time mother-in-law.
Hereford wasn't the sort of place to go to see great horses. The very day of Last Suspect's National win ended at Hereford as it usually did with a bumper. However, the 1985 one was no ordinary bumper - the 25-length winner was no lesser mare than the debutante Mrs Muck, probably the best horse I ever saw run at the track.
Just as I mourn the passing of Steve Boggett and John Sharratt, a piece of me mourns Hereford.
This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
rorydelargy
At the Start
Jesus wept. Is there a bigger cretin in the business that this fella?
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Can only be fishing to see how many bites he gets Rory.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,001
That's a bit strong, Rory. He might be going down the wrong route there but I think you'll find the vast majority of official ratings for hurdlers aren't far wrong. If a Timeform handicapper made that kind of misjudgment, would he be a cretin?
I intend to look at last Saturday's race again in detail this evening. I can't see me coming to the same conclusion at the moment but I wouldn't rule it out either.
What I do find a bit contradictory is that he says he's using G's previous as a marker yet he's rated him 162 on his performance (cf OR 166), which brings the front three right down. That's maybe to tie in in terms of a pure pounds-to-lengths evaluation of the entire race but I'm a great believer in races within races and that outclassed horses shouldn't be rated according to the distance beaten by vastly superior types.
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rorydelargy
At the Start
Yardstick handicapping is inherently wrong, for all it is an effective simplistic approach. Using a horse with Grandouet's profile as a yardstick horse is so wrong, it's frightening. For the record, his figures may prove to be fairly accurate (the beauty of being able to use a yardstick is that you can randomly pick one which provides the most pleasing result), but the logic is cringeworthy.
simmo
Senior Jockey
Given that all handicapping involves using a yardstick of some sort, you appear to be suggesting that handicapping or just applying ratings is inherently wrong. From a professional involved in the business of horse racing, I find that rather frightening and cringeworthy. (But not as frightening or cringeworthy as Strictly Come Dancing)
He has stated that he thinks that Grandouet and Zarkandar ran their race and Rock On Ruby appeared to blow up after the last, thus running a few pounds short of his best. That doesn't appear, on the face of things, to be an unreasonable assessment of the race to me. Perhaps you could elucidate as to why you find that opinion to be frightening and cringeworthy?