The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

i just don't see it tbh..i do think at this time that NC is the only horse taht will put it to him..won't be good enough..but without Faugheen NC has the chops. He don't care which hoss is next to him..he wants to pass it..that type of horse can defy ratings
 
I watch last years race and AF would have been on Faugheen at the finish if Ruby hadn't been allowed his way.
Chances are there will be more pace on this time. Faugheen will take the beating but I'm not giving this to him just yet. Though pointless outings like yesterday can be done without.
 
Desert Orchid said:
We're in a sad situation when the best hurdler around is only rated about 170 and nothing can get near him.
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Rated 174 on his CH win into which he came with no prep run and Ruby went tactical in early part of the race to be sure of victory. In comparison here are the figures for CH performances in previous years:

  • 2015 Faugheen 174
  • `14 Jezki 169
  • `13 Hurricane Fly 169
  • `12 ROR 170
  • `11 Hurricane Fly 172
  • `10 Binocular 172
  • `09 Punjabi 164
  • `08 Katchit 166
  • `07 Sublimity 166
  • `06 Brave Inca 167
  • Hardy Eustace `05 167, `04 166
  • `03 Rooster Booster 170
  • `02 Hors La Loi 164
  • Istabraq 2000 176, `99 170

Only 2000's Istabraq put a better performance in the last 15 years. I'd say we're in a privileged era and Faugheen is capable of even more with a strong pace upfront. That'll be IT and TN job which hopefully they'll do and with a prep in the Irish CH he could put up a special performance on festival's first day.
 
granger said:
Faugheen could run at the Irish champion.

No reason why he can't take it in
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The reason is simple he hates the horse.. gave him 3 races in space of 1 and half months at the end of 2013 culminating with a G3 over 3m on heavy ground, then sent him with no prep for Chelt, the horse bulldozed his way into the last 3-4 hurdles and still won [going away from the next year WH winner who lost all energy when trying to go with Faugheen's pace from 4 out]. Exactly after the race he said Vautour was way more impressive [by beating no names who hadn't done anything since]. Then sent him for the 2 mile at P'town and won like nothing seen in a long time, still winning by a dozen lengths while Ruby patting his back after the last, and Mullins only forced by the market [who placed him 5/1 co favourite for next CH] and Ricci, eventually left him hurdling but sent him fat as a train for first outing, with trainers at Ascot asking why is this horse racing with so much condition on him.

Then sent him for Kempton race which every expert beforehand said it won't suit because the flat track and speed test for a 3 miler that he is might caught him out [probably Mullins intentions], then again didn't let him have a prep for the CH and all the time saying Fly is their first string even though Faugheen was 5/4 and evens, and only in the morning of the CH admitted that "he never thought Faugheen would be their first string.. but there you go.." Wins the CH then in all interviews talks 5 seconds about Faugheen then 2-3 minutes about Arctic Fire and Fly. AF gets dismantled at Ptown then Mullins says "Ruby used smart tactics to take the speed out of Arctic", gives no credit to the horse.

Then on first run of next season he took him out for a racecourse gallop with only 4 days before a G1 race[admittedly the dry whether in Ireland this year didn't allowed trainers many days for getting their horses fit] knowing fully well that NC doesn't do too much on the gallops but Mullins immediately after the race said he has no excuses for Faugheen [he did mention along the lines that he may have left his race behind at Curragh but his main point was no excuses]. Only after 2-3 weeks and after WB was thoroughly beat he started to talk more about all the reasons why Faugheen was below par [and only after Xmas H, Ricci spilled that Faugheen was 15 kilos lighter than at Morgiana].

He may think that Arctic Fire should get a G1 in the next year before going against Faugheen at Chelt and Ptown, or for whatever reason.. Mullins just hates the horse and I won't be surprised if he won't take part in the Irish CH.
 
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Delighted Nichols confirmed my high opinion of him again today.
He has guts to burn in the Monksfield mould, standing way off some of his hurdles yet getting to the other side without a bother.
IT definitely a chaser in the making.
Whatever comes to Irish Champion Hurdle it will be some race yet again.
170 is a very decent rating for any horse and should not be dissed by the way.
 
Aughex said:
Rated 174 on his CH win into which he came with no prep run and Ruby went tactical in early part of the race to be sure of victory. In comparison here are the figures for CH performances in previous years:

  • 2015 Faugheen 174
  • `14 Jezki 169
  • `13 Hurricane Fly 169
  • `12 ROR 170
  • `11 Hurricane Fly 172
  • `10 Binocular 172
  • `09 Punjabi 164
  • `08 Katchit 166
  • `07 Sublimity 166
  • `06 Brave Inca 167
  • Hardy Eustace `05 167, `04 166
  • `03 Rooster Booster 170
  • `02 Hors La Loi 164
  • Istabraq 2000 176, `99 170

Only 2000's Istabraq put a better performance in the last 15 years. I'd say we're in a privileged era and Faugheen is capable of even more with a strong pace upfront. That'll be IT and TN job which hopefully they'll do and with a prep in the Irish CH he could put up a special performance on festival's first day.
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This reinforces my point.

None of Jezki, Hurricane Fly, ROR or the others can run to those figures any more or have retired. The best we've got is something like The New One, a low-mid 160s horse. I really want Faugheen to post a 175+ performance some day, or the 180+ I hope he has in him. But there's nothing else.
 
Lets see the Tent out, maybe he still has a perf reaching 170 in him. Also I wouldn't give up on P&C, his juvenile form was some way above Hargam and that one seems to be up there at G2 level. Canyon is a proper contender now having as many G1s as Faugheen. I. Thief could improve past NC on better ground. Top Notch, if my theory is right(not that he's ungenuine but in all his races when challenged he keeps finding more but doesn't want to stick his head in front) will be the one to give Faugheen most to do. Its hard to find two horses like Faugheen running at the same time, the above stats prove it for recent years and the first great era of hurdlers with Sir Ken and Hattons Grace also didn't found both of them in the same season at their best so maybe its appreciation time rather than being disappointed. If you want the latter just look at post Istabraq years..
 
"The reason is simple he hates the horse.. gave him 3 races in space of 1 and half months at the end of 2013 culminating with a G3 over 3m on heavy ground, then sent him with no prep for Chelt, the horse bulldozed his way into the last 3-4 hurdles and still won [going away from the next year WH winner who lost all energy when trying to go with Faugheen's pace from 4 out]. Exactly after the race he said Vautour was way more impressive [by beating no names who hadn't done anything since]. Then sent him for the 2 mile at P'town and won like nothing seen in a long time, still winning by a dozen lengths while Ruby patting his back after the last, and Mullins only forced by the market [who placed him 5/1 co favourite for next CH] and Ricci, eventually left him hurdling but sent him fat as a train for first outing, with trainers at Ascot asking why is this horse racing with so much condition on him.

Then sent him for Kempton race which every expert beforehand said it won't suit because the flat track and speed test for a 3 miler that he is might caught him out [probably Mullins intentions], then again didn't let him have a prep for the CH and all the time saying Fly is their first string even though Faugheen was 5/4 and evens, and only in the morning of the CH admitted that "he never thought Faugheen would be their first string.. but there you go.." Wins the CH then in all interviews talks 5 seconds about Faugheen then 2-3 minutes about Arctic Fire and Fly. AF gets dismantled at Ptown then Mullins says "Ruby used smart tactics to take the speed out of Arctic", gives no credit to the horse.

Then on first run of next season he took him out for a racecourse gallop with only 4 days before a G1 race[admittedly the dry whether in Ireland this year didn't allowed trainers many days for getting their horses fit] knowing fully well that NC doesn't do too much on the gallops but Mullins immediately after the race said he has no excuses for Faugheen [he did mention along the lines that he may have left his race behind at Curragh but his main point was no excuses]. Only after 2-3 weeks and after WB was thoroughly beat he started to talk more about all the reasons why Faugheen was below par [and only after Xmas H, Ricci spilled that Faugheen was 15 kilos lighter than at Morgiana].

He may think that Arctic Fire should get a G1 in the next year before going against Faugheen at Chelt and Ptown, or for whatever reason.. Mullins just hates the horse and I won't be surprised if he won't take part in the Irish CH."

:lol::lol:
 
the Mullins hate for Faugheen translates to having the horse best interests at heart, on a scale of 1 to 10, Mullins had Faugheen on 1 before winning the Neptune. For instance in the 13-14 season before the Chelt festival all the grade 1s 2s were split between Vautour and Briar Hill, paraphrasing Mullins "Faugheen went to the G3 on heavy ground because there was nowhere else to go to keep them separated". He continued by giving him no prep before the Neptune because all major novices races were assigned for other horses and he only ran in the Neptune by default as he had Vautour in the Supreme and Briar in 3 mile race.

Mullins probably raised his interest for the horse with each race he won but still even now I don't think he's giving him more than 5 and if I'm wrong we'll see Faugheen run in the Irish CH because there's no reason not to, just like it wasn't last year but still missed it. Why didn't Arctic Fire missed that race as well? Because he knew he couldn't beat Fly, who he had at 10 on the scale. If you need to be further convinced just watch his interview on ATR before Punchestown CH where he says Faugheen looks an ordinary horse and compared him with "two boards clapped together" and you'll understand how much he loves this horse..
 
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If Mullins hated Faugheen that much, Vautour would have been his Champion Hurdle horse last season.

As egg-nog-fuelled efforts go, Aughex's posts on this thread are right up there. Good work.
 
What a load of utter bollox Aughex. As conspiracy theories go that one is one of the wackiest I've ever heard.

Keep it up though it gave me a good laugh when I read it.
 
Aughex said:
Lets see the Tent out, maybe he still has a perf reaching 170 in him. Also I wouldn't give up on P&C, his juvenile form was some way above Hargam and that one seems to be up there at G2 level. Canyon is a proper contender now having as many G1s as Faugheen. I. Thief could improve past NC on better ground. Top Notch, if my theory is right(not that he's ungenuine but in all his races when challenged he keeps finding more but doesn't want to stick his head in front) will be the one to give Faugheen most to do. Its hard to find two horses like Faugheen running at the same time, the above stats prove it for recent years and the first great era of hurdlers with Sir Ken and Hattons Grace also didn't found both of them in the same season at their best so maybe its appreciation time rather than being disappointed. If you want the latter just look at post Istabraq years..
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The problem I have with hurdlers - and I've been saying it for years - is that there simply aren't enough of good ones around, pretty much ever.

Growing up, I was a huge fan of Comedy Of Errors with Persian War being just before my punting time. We also had Night Nurse and Bula around that time. I was really just starting to get into my own ratings around the time of Beech Road and Morley Street so I'm not sure my high ratings for them would be reliable although I believe Timeform went high with Morley Street.

Then we had the era of the Granville Agains, Make A Stands, Celtic Whatever... the 160-165 brigade... and we seemed to stagnate around there until Istabraq. Could part of the problem be the philosophy/process of using ten-year averages to determine 'likely' ratings?

After Istabraq we dipped again until Rooster Booster - who still doesn't get the credit he deserves for putting up the two best performances since Istabraq (his champion hurdle and his TGT defeat off top weight and a high OR - and nobody will ever convince me that Johnson didn't cost him a second CH by giving him too much to do at Newbury and bottomed him).

Since then?

Donkey upon donkey, relatively speaking. Until Faugheen [and maybe Our Conor before that].

In mitigation...

It's early in the morning, I'm doped to the eyeballs, my memory isn't what it should be as a result and my punting confidence is very low.

They keep using the soundbite Faugheen the Machine.

That's like calling my Mazda 3 a fast car next to my wife's Nissan Note. But my last car was a Jaguar so I can keep my Mazda 3's capabilities in perspective...
 
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Look on the bright side Maurice. At least the Mazda is reliable and you know what you're going to get. It may be a low grade handicapper, but at least it doesn't refuse to race like the Jag!

I reckon that's a pessimistic view by the way, and I subscribe to your ten year ratings theory. In context it's impossible to beleive that there haven't been more 170+ Champion Hurdle winners since Isty, particularly given the quality coming from the flat over the same period. In honesty with all of the French breds being bought too it doesn't make sense. In fact it feels illogical.
 
Maruco said:
What a load of utter bollox Aughex. As conspiracy theories go that one is one of the wackiest I've ever heard.

Keep it up though it gave me a good laugh when I read it.
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All facts Maruco ;-) Nothing I've said can be contested as Mullins actions speak for themselves, Faugheen was the lowest priority from his best horses in the yard before that 2m Punchestown win where he destroyed rivals which Vautour struggled to beat. Then had to prove himself as CH contender fat as a train first outing then on an unsuiting track at Kempton before Mullins had no choice(market and Ricci pressure) but send him for the CH. Not before he left him home and gave no prep then called him a clapping board in CH Punchestown preview: https://youtu.be/0SHBNQFXHnw?t=311

I think Mullins is the best trainer around, but facts are he he gave/gives Faugheen little consideration/respect vs the rest of his top horses.
 
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