The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

you know how you reckon Mullins don't like Faugheen Aughex..well..you giving strong signals you don't like HF..so any view you have is a little biased i feel
 
Aughex said:
Regardless what camp anyone's in, the form book never lies, thankfully. Jezki on his spring ground, always beat Fly, about 3-4 times. He only beat ROR in his declining period when that one failed to even measure up against Zarkandar earlier in the same season. He beat Solwhit by an average of 2 lengths whose best form over 2 miles is worse than TNO. And finally he beat Go Native in their novice season who in turn won arguably the worst Supreme renewal in recent history just beating Medermit by a whisker and Somersby by a further 2 lengths. These are the champs he beat. I think I forgot he also beat Peddlers Cross by an outstanding margin of 1 length.. you know Peddlers who beat the mighty Starluck also by 1 length. Numbers are what matters 22 G1s, mmokay.
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Certifiable drivel.
 
EC1 said:
i'm not talking about different distances..i'm talking about the same distances..the CH and CC are over the same distance..the 10 year averages show how the CC winner will always get better ratings...due to the chase/hurdle distance bias

its simple really..handicapping is based on superiority..chasers can put more distance between themselves at teh end of races..hence..will get bigger ratings
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It makes sense, the exertions that chasers make when jumping bigger obstacles will always take a big toll on their final efforts and the margins will be exaggerated. Hurdling in contrast is like a flat race and the finishing margins are big only when some jockeys get their fractions wrong. I don't think you can equate chasers and hurdlers that easy though, some hurdlers improve 30-40 pounds over fences and some regress. Sprinter wasn't capable of reaching 170 over hurdles just as Night Nurse wasn't able to reach 190 over fences, trying to equate chasers and hurdles ratings is impossible, that 7/8lbs difference is flawed imo.
 
7/8 maybe flawed..but treating hurdlers as being able to achieve the same as chasers is even more flawed..its not possible actually

if 7/8 is flawed..should it be more?
 
EC1 said:
you know how you reckon Mullins don't like Faugheen Aughex..well..you giving strong signals you don't like HF..so any view you have is a little biased i feel
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There's no horse like Fly, his longevity and willing to win is unmatched in horse racing, IMO. Looking at form figures of course is impressive, but looking at his form is nothing special. And I'm not a trainer so my actions/opinion don't matter even one iota as much as Mullins. I'm entitled to watch how he treated Faugheen because next month its about whether he'll give him a prep in the Irish CH or not, and thats what this was all about.
 
but if you add 7lbs or whatever to the RPR ratings..as is fair to equate to chasing ratings..HF has a RPR of 179/180..and a collection of G1's no other hoss collected.

thats in the book..don't matter what he raced against..RPR's allow for that and they give him a near on 180 rating in real terms
 
EC1 said:
7/8 maybe flawed..but treating hurdlers as being able to achieve the same as chasers is even more flawed..its not possible actually

if 7/8 is flawed..should it be more?
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its impossible because chasers use different group of muscles(thats why Mullins never puts novices against older as they're undeveloped) and need to be alot braver. Its one thing to put flat types into hurdling as speed is the main element and an entirely diff thing to put hurdlers over fences. 7/8 is flawed because it could be 30 or -20.
 
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Aughex said:
Regardless what camp anyone's in, the form book never lies, thankfully. Jezki on his spring ground, always beat Fly, about 3-4 times. He only beat ROR in his declining period when that one failed to even measure up against Zarkandar earlier in the same season. He beat Solwhit by an average of 2 lengths whose best form over 2 miles is worse than TNO. And finally he beat Go Native in their novice season who in turn won arguably the worst Supreme renewal in recent history just beating Medermit by a whisker and Somersby by a further 2 lengths. These are the champs he beat. I think I forgot he also beat Peddlers Cross by an outstanding margin of 1 length.. you know Peddlers who beat the mighty Starluck also by 1 length. Numbers are what matters 22 G1s, mmokay.
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Your one eyed reading of the form is laughable. Are you a computer program designed specifically to annoy the **** out of people?
 
Aughex said:
its impossible because chasers use different group of muscles(thats why Mullins never puts novices against older as they're undeveloped) and need to be alot braver. Its one thing to put flat types into hurdling as speed is the main element and an entirely diff thing to put hurdlers over fences. 7/8 is flawed because it could be 30 or -20.
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30 or minus 20???..i'm talking averages..not per fookin race:)

lets put it this way..anyone who expects a season to throw up the top hurdler v top chaser and it be the hurdler with higher rating is ignoring the obvious..chasers win by further

If a hurdler gets a 170+..he's pretty damn good under the current rating system..if he gets 175+..he's in the Istabraq club..because an equal abilty chaser is 180+

to ignore this fact..just seems silly to me..hurdlers of same ability as chaser cannot match the same rating..its impossible without putting a factor in to correct the bias...my simple method is add 7 to the hurdler..won't be far out..otherwise you could from day to day put a reduction factor on the chase winning distance before you handicap..
 
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Aughex said:
I'm entitled to watch how he treated Faugheen because next month its about whether he'll give him a prep in the Irish CH or not, and thats what this was all about.
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He'll just sling Faugheen in at Cheltenham. AF is going IC. He'll be primed for Cheltenham whereas Faugheen... :whistle:

:cool:
 
TheBear said:
Your one eyed reading of the form is laughable. Are you a computer program designed specifically to annoy the **** out of people?
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you can be in awe of workmanlike performances(with some exceptions) all you want but I'm not going to pretend something is great when the form says is only above average. Form aside, Fly was a great racehorse in how he battled, his tenacity and high class ability over an such a long period, but just don't try to sell me on his form and how its greater than x or z..
 
intelligent debates on this forum being ruined by blatant wind-up merchants who come back and around again in different guises...someone needs to get rid

enjoying views of EC1, Grasshopper and Desert Orchid. Aughex contributions are just wasting time and energy
 
Jambo said:
intelligent debates on this forum being ruined by blatant wind-up merchants who come back and around again in different guises...someone needs to get rid

enjoying views of EC1, Grasshopper and Desert Orchid. Aughex contributions are just wasting time and energy
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Its taken longer than i thought! A simple TROLL.
 
I didn't knew discussing with arguments is trolling(or maybe I've just hurt some feelings). Ok, so back to topic, we began from how Faugheen didn't had a proper rival and what a sad situation is the current state of hurdlers. Now in todays RP, page 6, leading 2 Mile Hurdlers by RRP:

  • Faugheen 173
  • Arctic Fire 168
  • Nichols Canyon 167
  • Identity Thief 164
  • The New One 164

Faugheen has 2 rivals nearing 170, discuss... missing from that is Peace and Co at 159, and Top Notch 162, I suspect these 2 will be near the 170 by the end of season.
 
I reckon they meet again this season EC and there'll be the distance between them that those ratings indicate. Determination will only get him so far.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I know you don't need to list what HF beat but or the sake of those who are just getting into the game, these are his last 10 G1 wins and what came second to him with their ORs. The * is for a Champion Hurdle:

Arctic Fire 154
Jezki 169 x2
Our Conor 161
Jezki 161
Marito 138
Thousand Stars 163
*ROR 170
Thousand Stars 163
Unaccompanied 155
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Doesn't quite tell the full story though, does it, DO?

Putting aside the fact that Hurricane Fly was rising 9yo during the period you mention, and therefore already in the veteran stage, I've added a little context:

Arctic Fire 154 - beaten by 3.5L and finished season rated 169 (Champion Hurdler Jezki also beaten)
Jezki 169 x2 - Champion Hurdler beaten readily both times (Arctic Fire also beaten both times)
Our Conor 161 - Triumph Hurdle winner beaten 1.5L in receipt of 2lbs (Jezki also beaten)
Jezki 161 - Champion Hurdler beaten readily (Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor beaten 5.5L in receipt of 3lbs)
Marito 138 - this was an indisputably poor G1 race. Happy to acknowledge this.
Thousand Stars 163 - French Champion Hurdler beaten 7L (Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby also beaten)
*ROR 170 - Champion Hurdler beaten 2.5L (Champion Hurdler Binocular also beaten)
Thousand Stars 163 - French Champion hurdler beaten 5L eased down (Champion Hurdler Binocular a nose further back)
Unaccompanied 155 - beaten 7L (eased down) in receipt of 7lbs


You don't even want to look at the horses he beat in his pomp between 6 and 8yo. :cool:
 
just looking at the third horse distance beaten in every race today,,chase v hurdles..not got last race reults

chase
9
15
34
25
40
hurdle
22
12
28
17
7
6
8

average beaten hurdles = 14 lengths
chase =25 lengths

but lets expect hurdlers to have same ratings as chasers eh?
 
EC1 said:
If a hurdler gets a 170+..he's pretty damn good under the current rating system..if he gets 175+..he's in the Istabraq club..because an equal abilty chaser is 180+

to ignore this fact..just seems silly to me..hurdlers of same ability as chaser cannot match the same rating..its impossible without putting a factor in to correct the bias...my simple method is add 7 to the hurdler..won't be far out..otherwise you could from day to day put a reduction factor on the chase winning distance before you handicap..
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I have to confess I've never really considered it from that kind of perspective.

But if it is so obvious why hasn't the handicapping team reached the same general conclusion and set about rectifying it?

We regularly hear trainers talking about good hurdlers that will go on to make brilliant chasers. Surely they know the difference?

Is it the fact that chasing requires more effort therefore is more likely to 'separate the men from the boys' via wider finishing distances?

Should the poundage for lengths beaten in hurdles and chases at the same race distance be different?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have to confess I've never really considered it from that kind of perspective.

But if it is so obvious why hasn't the handicapping team reached the same general conclusion and set about rectifying it?

We regularly hear trainers talking about good hurdlers that will go on to make brilliant chasers. Surely they know the difference?

Is it the fact that chasing requires more effort therefore is more likely to 'separate the men from the boys' via wider finishing distances?

Should the poundage for lengths beaten in hurdles and chases at the same race distance be different?
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i would imagine the handicapper isn't bothered as he just handicaps horses...the actual top end rating doesn't really matter to him as long as horses are separated amongst themselves

yes would agree that chases does tire horses at the end more..ie hurdling is more about speed

for us discussing merits of ratings at top as we do it needs buliding in..if you don't then hurdlers just look poor in comparison.

in AVB handicapping hurdlers at top will never reach chase levels...but they do when you make speed figures..because you aren't relying on rating from oppo

many chasers when they drop back to hurdles look to be well in if hurdles rating is lower..but often aren't due to the bias in ratings..ie.a 140 chaser drops back to hurdles...off 133,,people say..well in..when in fact its probably off its correct hurdle mark
 
Grasshopper said:
Doesn't quite tell the full story though, does it, DO?

Putting aside the fact that Hurricane Fly was rising 9yo during the period you mention, and therefore already in the veteran stage, I've added a little context:

Arctic Fire 154 - beaten by 3.5L and finished season rated 169 (Champion Hurdler Jezki also beaten)
Jezki 169 x2 - Champion Hurdler beaten readily both times (Arctic Fire also beaten both times)
Our Conor 161 - Triumph Hurdle winner beaten 1.5L in receipt of 2lbs (Jezki also beaten)
Jezki 161 - Champion Hurdler beaten readily (Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor beaten 5.5L in receipt of 3lbs)
Marito 138 - this was an indisputably poor G1 race. Happy to acknowledge this.
Thousand Stars 163 - French Champion Hurdler beaten 7L (Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby also beaten)
*ROR 170 - Champion Hurdler beaten 2.5L (Champion Hurdler Binocular also beaten)
Thousand Stars 163 - French Champion hurdler beaten 5L eased down (Champion Hurdler Binocular a nose further back)
Unaccompanied 155 - beaten 7L (eased down) in receipt of 7lbs


You don't even want to look at the horses he beat in his pomp between 6 and 8yo. :cool:
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:lol: what a load of.... yes he was a veteran but so was 11yo Thousand Stars who thoroughly beat Fly at the former's preferred Auteuil course. ROR only got beat by him the following season of winning the CH when he was massively on the downgrade. Marito... Jezki on his spring ground(on which he was at his best and a champion) beat by Fly 3 out of 4 times(he came 2 lengths behind in last season CH but McCoy blamed himself for taking Faugheen on too early). Our Conor was rated 164 for that 1.5 L defeat. Arctic Fire, like Mullins said progressed way passed Fly by the time he got that 169 rating. When Fly beat AF, he was only rated 154 and 157. What is the point trying to hype his form? He had other attributes that other horses rarely have, his form is not great.
 
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