The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

TheBear said:
I know what you're saying EC but why put a number on it in the first place? Nobody on here thinks that a horse inherits 7lbs worth of ability just because it jumps a fence. Ratings are there for a current practical purpose, to handicap a horse. I don't look at them as a means to compare a champion hurdler today to a champion chaser 20 years ago and the system isn't designed to do that either.

I'm probably going to get shot down for this because my knowledge isn't where yours is, but doesn't the fact that current horses in training are essentially operating off separate handicap marks (hurdles & fences) tell you that the two disciplines are not meant to be compared?
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the effort was put in because it was stated that current hurdlers aren't very good..or the last 20 years worth..the benchmark method shows thats not actually the case..as does the original +7 theory

when i read..but such and such only beat 160 hurdler..that needs putting in context with the chase level to make it more relevant...160 hurdlers are 169 horses as we generally think of chasers

as we have lots of chat about ratings..on this forum its very relevant
 
Desert Orchid said:
That remark, though, was in the context of the argument that HF racked up so many Grade 1s it automatically made him an all-time great.

I just happen to think that he was mopping up decent prizes because there wasn't much around to test him. He could win them while still only half-fit. However, when he took on the very best of what was around he still beat them, including at Cheltenham. That's what made him a top hurdler in my opinion. I always said the same about Istabraq. (Yet didn't Copeland or something like that beat him one day?)
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i also was in the camp of mopping up easy G1's..but as Faugheen found out recently...you can lose them

HF was..and i said this many times..a rolls royce of a hurdler..he hardly broke stride and his consistency for a hurdler is beyond compare..yep he mopped a few easy ones..but you still have to turn up fit..and actually win em

he is rated 1lb behind benchmark Istabraq on official ratings...which makes him the 2nd best hurdler since the 70's doesn't it?
 
Desert Orchid said:
That remark, though, was in the context of the argument that HF racked up so many Grade 1s it automatically made him an all-time great.
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Yes, but that remark was made in the context of having a higher regard for the opposition HF faced in those Grade 1 races, and therefore the value of the form, than you do.

Have we gone full-circle on this now? :lol:
 
EC1 said:
the effort was put in because it was stated that current hurdlers aren't very good..or the last 20 years worth..the benchmark method shows thats not actually the case..as does the original +7 theory

when i read..but such and such only beat 160 hurdler..that needs putting in context with the chase level to make it more relevant...160 hurdlers are 169 horses as we generally think of chasers

as we have lots of chat about ratings..on this forum its very relevant
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Yep, I'll concede that point. When I said no-one believes a horse gains ability by jumping a fence I was forgetting about those who use ratings and lengths beaten like a maths equation to try and diminish the achievements of horses such as HF. It's good of you to take the time to argue the case for the sane!

In such long discussions you tend to reply to the most recent posts rather than recalling where the discussion started from.
 
TheBear said:
Yep, I'll concede that point. When I said no-one believes a horse gains ability by jumping a fence I was forgetting about those who use ratings and lengths beaten like a maths equation to try and diminish the achievements of horses such as HF. It's good of you to take the time to argue the case for the sane!

In such long discussions you tend to reply to the most recent posts rather than recalling where the discussion started from.
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i like maths equations obviously:)..they usually serve me well...and they can dispel long served opinions about hosses..hurdlers have a hard time unnecessarily imo..purely due to the way ratings are achieved..its not a level playing field for them to equal chase ratings ..can't be done

we got good hosses to watch in both codes at the moment..we are very lucky
 
EC and others - how do your own ratings compare with Timeform's? Should a 22-time G1 winner be placed below the likes of Limestone Lad, Lanzarote and Salmon Spray? That's the bit where I see HF seriously underrated.
 
Len Madeiros, I bet you'll find an interesting read about when the pattern races were first introduced(1969), how many they were(14), etc. search around, many books, online newspapers, also seek how many Istabraq had available in his era in around 2 mile hurdles... good luck
 
Len Madeiros said:
EC and others - how do your own ratings compare with Timeform's? Should a 22-time G1 winner be placed below the likes of Limestone Lad, Lanzarote and Salmon Spray? That's the bit where I see HF seriously underrated.
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i don't understand how TF get their rating for HF. The official handicapper..who is conservative rates him 1lb behind Istabraq..whereas TF aren't conservative with certain horses...but stingy with others...You would have to ask such as Simon Rowlands why HF doesn't appear to be one of their bigger rated types

maybe TF got Aughex to rate HF:)
 
EC1 said:
maybe TF got Aughex to rate HF:)
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If I truly worked at Timeform, firstly it would be as a web programmer and seconly I would rate the frakking(BSG) Fighting Fifth much higher as I think its the best renewal in ages with WB 10 lens in 3rd and PB 20 lengths in 4th(admittedly that one only gives his true running on Good going). Can you believe they still have Top Notch, Identity Thief and Nichols Canyon rated under 160! Just so they can say "it’s as much down to a lack of top-class opposition" Go screw yourself Timeform okay... then how the hell was he odds-on the first time around? did he faced second raters in Jezki on his ground, Fly reportedly in best form of his life, and TNO backers and trainer bullish on him with his unbeaten run since the last CH. Nichols already beat him(with all the caveats involved), IT in turn gave that on a proper battle to which Top Notch also gave to the latter. And there's still MTOY and real P&C to show up. It has the potential of being a stronger renewal than last year and yet Timeform floats in their secret formula which they always retroactively tweak in order to give the feeling that they know what the **** they're talking about.. so no EC, I don't work for Timform. Any other conspiracy theories ?
 
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From RP

WILLIE MULLINS has revealed there is every chance Faugheen could take on Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire in the BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on January 24.

The impressive Christmas Hurdle winner has not run between December and the Cheltenham Festival in either of the last two years, but Ireland's champion trainer could alter plans this season.


Writing exclusively in his Saturday Racing Post column, Mullins says: "There is every chance that Faugheen will run. We'll also have Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire in the race and as of now all three owners are very keen to run their horses.

"Faugheen went straight to Cheltenham last year after winning the Christmas Hurdle and this time Rich [Ricci - owner] is bursting to run him in the Leopardstown race. That's the way it's looking although we'll review the situation closer to the race."
 
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Kind of fell for Nichols Canyon the last day. Loved the way he faught for it on horrible ground and would be so keen on him for March if he was in a different stable.
 
For all I dislike him as a jockey, I do like Richard Johnson as a person.

Especially following his answer this morning when asked how Faugheen etc would get on against Rooster Booster...

"They wouldn't see which way he went." Or words to that effect.

Good man Richard and obviously a sound form judge :)

Edit

Just watched it again on +1.

It was specifically about Faugheen.

(Even I reckon it would be very close!)
 
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Pricewise tomorrow. Can't be anything at the front of the market so my guess would either be MTOY at 25/1 or Camping Ground NRNB at around the same price.

Old Guard 40/1 NRNB the obvious one, but Tom won’t spot him :lol:
 
My guess would be Peace And Co since he's longer now than he was a couple of months ago and he might have had a word about why he put up those disappointing runs.
 
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