The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Not sure if stale news, if so scroll on past

Henderson on Stan James site

My Tent or Yours has had a few small niggles and won’t run in the Stan James Champion hurdle trial at Haydock two weeks on Saturday. They are nothing to do with his tendons and we need to get a run into him before the Champion hurdle; there a few options including the KIngwell at Wincanton which we won with Binocular back in 2012. We’ll see.


Peace and Co does run at Haydock in that Stan James Champion hurdle trial all being well. We had him scoped after his disappointing Cheltenham run and nothing untoward came back.As we all know he pulled hard that day, and we did think about running a pacemaker at Haydock, and Top Notch was mentioned. But it would be a little unfair on Top Notch as he’s a good horse in his own right. I think his poor run the other day can be put down in some part to having had too hard races in quick succession. But he may be hard to place this season
 
a week ago DG

Peace and Co 159 is entered for the Betfair Hurdle and although he would carry top weight it never stopped him running Punjabi prior to his 3rd to Katchit.

No idea what he is intending as Sign of a Victory is ground dependant but Peace and Co wouldn't be as likely to run off with DJ again.
 
They can't afford for him to do the same thing in a slowly run Grade 1 given whatever turns up against him knows exactly how to beat him. He won't have the same problem in a Champion Hurdle but you wouldn't want to turn up there after two dismal efforts after pulling too hard in small fields.

I'd say they have to go to Newbury where they're assured a big field and a strong pace. He doesn't need to win, just go close to get himself back on track.
 
tht triumph hurdle form isn't worth a lot..P&C will need to imrove a lot to carry top weight in a schweppes and get close

if he does..respect..i can't see it mesen..is overrated imo..and i said that before he bombed last time
 
That's pretty much the view I have EC. the form really hasn't held up well.

There's no doubt P&C has talent, and although he was the winner of the Triumph he is the one that also appeared to have the most the scope to improve from last season. Last time out showed how immature he is, so I'm not writing him off yet, if they can get him to grow up. The Newbury handicap is the perfect test because he'll get cover in a big field, whereas a small field Grade 1 is more likely to see a repeat of last time. I reckon Henderson has to go there and I took some 20's ew yesterday alongside Modus (which I've backed for reasons you already know), plus the other bet discussed at the same time at 33's. I may add Renetti (also available at 33's with Coral), as well if I know Mullins definitely brings him over.

Do I think Peace and Co can improve sufficiently to beat Faugheen? No. But I wouldn't write him off completely because it's not out of the question that the improvement comes because the Newbury race potentially suits him so well. I think it's more likely we'll see the best of him when he's had another season under his belt though, so he's far fro written off in my mind, but right now I can't have him for the Champion Hurdle unless he shows something beforehand.
 
Maruco said:
That's pretty much the view I have EC. the form really hasn't held up well.

There's no doubt P&C has talent, and although he was the winner of the Triumph he is the one that also appeared to have the most the scope to improve from last season. Last time out showed how immature he is, so I'm not writing him off yet, if they can get him to grow up. The Newbury handicap is the perfect test because he'll get cover in a big field, whereas a small field Grade 1 is more likely to see a repeat of last time. I reckon Henderson has to go there and I took some 20's ew yesterday alongside Modus (which I've backed for reasons you already know), plus the other bet discussed at the same time at 33's. I may add Renetti (also available at 33's with Coral), as well if I know Mullins definitely brings him over.

Do I think Peace and Co can improve sufficiently to beat Faugheen? No. But I wouldn't write him off completely because it's not out of the question that the improvement comes because the Newbury race potentially suits him so well. I think it's more likely we'll see the best of him when he's had another season under his belt though, so he's far fro written off in my mind, but right now I can't have him for the Champion Hurdle unless he shows something beforehand.
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This came up in discussion on the phone with the brother the other night.

We backed P&C for the CH a long time ago when it was 10/1, before it bombed. He was phoning to say he was going back in for it. I said to him in that case better back it for the Schweppes as well. He said that's what he was about to suggest. MTOY hacked up in the race off 149 and went up to 162 for it. A year later he was beaten a neck in the Champion and went up to 168 for it.

Peace And Co will be off 159 at Newbury but earlier in the season Henderson said the the likes of Top Notch and Hargam couldn't beat Faugheen "but peace And Co could/might" (not sure of the exact word). Faugheen is clearly capable of running well in excess of 170 and probably closer to 180. Henderson will know that so he must have had a high enough opinion of P&C when he made that statement. The next step of the plan would be to see how far down the hadnicap he could get P&C to give him the chance of landing both races and picking up the bonus, especially as he hasn't being doing a lot on the trainers' championship front.

Being able to run to 170+ wouldn't guarantee P&C success at Newbury and there will be the usual 'more plots than an Agatha Christie anthology' scenario but if he can hit 175 it will take an exceptional performance to beat him. It's a very big if, obviously, but will news emerge about breathing ops etc over the next couple of weeks?
 
I get the logic behind this, DO, but you have to place a lot of faith in P&C to want to have the bet(s).

I alluded to this earlier in the thread, but with every race that goes by, last year's juvenile form starts to look fairly ordinary.

P&C got an historically-high OR as a 4yo, and Timeform gave him 160P (from memory), and touting him as a live CH candidate didn't look out of place.......at the time. However, with the benefit of hindsight, that juvenile form looks to have been over-rated to a fair degree - otherwise, I'd have expected the better ones to have made much more of an impact in handicap and lower-Graded company.

I agree with EC1 on this. Last season's juvenile crop have proven to be disappointing, and I think many (and I would include P&C in this) are potentially badly-handicapped, as a result of the positive view taken of P&C's, essentially untested, 4yo form. I reckon it's dragged them into ratings-territory that might be beyond their ability.

A resurrection in Peace & Co's fortunes can't be ruled-out, of course - look no further than Cue Card for evidence of that - but on balance, I think it more likely he'd find top-weight in a Betfair Hurdle, too stern an examination. He'd have to give too much weight to too many progressive horses, imo. And I don't hold out much hope that he could make a genuine impact in a Champion Hurdle either.

I wish your brother good luck with his bets though.
 
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I'd probably prefer the 25/1 NRNB about MTOY than the 14s about Peace and Co. Geraghty was quoted saying a similar thing about this horse at the start of the season as Hendo did more recently about Peace and Co; i.e. he's a horse who could be capable of beating Faugheen.

I don't buy that but recent rumours suggest it's a doubt he'll even line up and I can't see Henderson running MTOY unless he can get him ready so if he does run then he has the raw ability to obtain a place, with the pace likely to be set by the favorite sure to suit him.
 
he is entered in haydock ch trail isn't he?..would he run in both?

if he runs in the betfair ..you can forget any Champion Hurdle aspirations..that race off top weight..if able to win..unlikely imo..would bottom him i reckon. Its not like its some every day race..its one of the hottest races of the year where 90% of the trainers will have plotted summat up
 
Grasshopper said:
I get the logic behind this, DO, but you have to place a lot of faith in P&C to want to have the bet(s).

I alluded to this earlier in the thread, but with every race that goes by, last year's juvenile form starts to look fairly ordinary.

P&C got an historically-high OR as a 4yo, and Timeform gave him 160P (from memory), and touting him as a live CH candidate didn't look out of place.......at the time. However, with the benefit of hindsight, that juvenile form looks to have been over-rated to a fair degree - otherwise, I'd have expected the better ones to have made much more of an impact in handicap and lower-Graded company.

I agree with EC1 on this. Last season's juvenile crop have proven to be disappointing, and I think many (and I would include P&C in this) are potentially badly-handicapped, as a result of the positive view taken of P&C's, essentially untested, 4yo form. I reckon it's dragged them into ratings-territory that might be beyond their ability.

A resurrection in Peace & Co's fortunes can't be ruled-out, of course - look no further than Cue Card for evidence of that - but on balance, I think it more likely he'd find top-weight in a Betfair Hurdle, too stern an examination. He'd have to give too much weight to too many progressive horses, imo. And I don't hold out much hope that he could make a genuine impact in a Champion Hurdle either.

I wish your brother good luck with his bets though.
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Yes, probably more a case of trying to read Henderson than anything else.

While I tend to read form, the brother tends to read situations and trainers and he often reads them well. He's an instinct punter but strictly small stakes stuff so it doesn't hurt him when he's wrong.
 
The other thing to remember is the conditions of a normal Champion Hurdle compared to last year's Triumph would suit P&C very well. I also think Hargam ran well enough in the Xmas Hurdle.
 
On form lines through Identity Thief and Top Notch, Peace and Co comes out around the same level of Nichols Canyon's last run, being only 5 and on better ground would give him more scope for improvement.
 
It needs a very generous interpretation to view it that way imo, Tiggers, and doesn't really account for the ease with which NC won the Ryanair Hurdle.
 
I backed P&C back in November and have virtually written that off. I just can't see the issues that surfaced in the International being ironed out. Surely the other jocks will know how to get him beaten and I'd expect to see tactics along those lines to some extent.
Doubt the merits of running him in the Betfair too. As EC1 says a hard race carrying a welter burden will surely bottom him. However it wouldn't surprise me to see the same as we got in the International if he lines up at Haydock


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viking said:
I backed P&C back in November and have virtually written that off. I just can't see the issues that surfaced in the International being ironed out. Surely the other jocks will know how to get him beaten and I'd expect to see tactics along those lines to some extent.
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What if there were no issues behind his defeat in the International? What if he was deliberately undercooked?

Willie Mullins (and many other Irish trainers) often run their horses knowing they will not win, only to show ridiculous sudden improvement on a day that matters.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
What if there were no issues behind his defeat in the International? What if he was deliberately undercooked?

Willie Mullins (and many other Irish trainers) often run their horses knowing they will not win, only to show ridiculous sudden improvement on a day that matters.
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If that's the case then I still have a decent AP bet on. Hope you're right [emoji51]


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So they're talking about looking for a run at the weekend that will see his odds halve and that he might run again between then and Cheltenham.

He's on 159 but the weights for the Betfair aren't out so a heavy defeat, for which they can always blame the ground, might see him drop 4 or 5lbs.

One thing is for sure. Whatever Henderson eventually does send to Newbury will demand the utmost respect.

(Hopefully it won't matter if the one I backed a couple of weeks ago is as good as I think.)
 
I'm not sure doubling up in the Betfair Hurdle would bottom him EC. He won't be carrying any more weight than any other race and he's more likely to get plenty of cover to stop him running choke out. You probably wouldn't want to run him on testing ground though. If anything they're probably better to get two runs in to get the keeness out of him.

I'm more concerned about him running in a small field Grade 2 where he's more likely to repeat the dose from last time. One thing for certain they'll have done plenty of work on him and almost certainly they'll have changed his tack. It'll be interesting to see if they've done the job.
 
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