I know this is Slim's "will win" thread but 2nd - come on now reet, time to pick up your game
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The Will Win Thread
- Thread starter Slim
- Start date
Danny
Journeyman
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- Feb 27, 2013
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- 2,447
Strange one to put up for the will win thread Reet 2/29 on the allweather 1/9 at Kempton and that was over 10f off a mark of 85 he's off 90 today. 1/12 over 7f and that was his madien at Dundalk. Can't see the angle here reet even though he's up there onbraw figures.
Drifting like a barge too,Danny -but I still believe he's there to win
Slim
Rookie
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- Dec 6, 2019
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I was only watching on a stream that was buffering but it was just as painful. That horse should just be winning that race, I'd never bet it again.
Screwed that badly ,my sincere apologies.
smartpredator
Amateur Rider
Price smashed whatever happens! Cheers for sharing.
Slim
Rookie
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This is a fallacy. It’s not tough. The horse got beat because it’s a c***. Today was the day to be on. I got plenty of 3/1. The market agreed and sent it off 13/8. I’d bet the horse over hurdles — it’s a travelly thing. My only question today was what it would find off the bridle. It was such a bad race I didn’t think it would matter.
Slim
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I've put this one up on Substack under the Point Blank banner:
open.substack.com
If you're not interested in Substack:
The market for the last race at Bellewstown appears to have been shaped by one good judge putting up Light Up The Dark.
At 9am it looked like this:
9/4 Light Up The Dark
15/8 Zanahiyr
Now it sits:
7/4 Light Up The Dark
3/1 Zanahiyr
Like Hugh Taylor, he’s an exceptional judge, but the market basically lets him dictate prices — and he won’t get every race right all the time. It’s easy to see why a horse like Zanahiyr is a favourite you’d look to take on. He’s a quirky sort who isn’t always in the mood. But at his best he ran 3rd in a Champion Hurdle behind Constitution Hill and State Man. If you want a laugh, that run was 2.25l ahead of Vauban — what price would Vauban be here off a mark of 76?!
Racing doesn’t work like that, but it does make you ask: what mark is Zanahiyr capable of running to on the flat? He’s only had five flat runs, four of them five years ago, and one of those was a 7f maiden. On his latest flat start at Killarney, he finished 4th to three very solid horses — form I’d rate strongly. They’ll have learnt plenty.
He needs a strong pace or perhaps — whisper this softly — to make the running. With the excellent Josh Williamson on board (yes, I’ve forgiven him for Tramore) claiming 7lb, he effectively runs here off 68, which is absolutely bonkers to my mind.
Two runs at Galway mean there are no fitness worries, and this is probably a nice tune-up for Listowel — but one where there’s no point not trying to win.
The market is giving us a massive discount to put all of this into practice, and this is the time to play.
7.55 Bellewstown — Zanahiyr 5/2 or better
Point Blank: Point Blank: In The Sights at Bellewstown
I’m not going down the tipping route, don’t worry.
open.substack.com
If you're not interested in Substack:
The market for the last race at Bellewstown appears to have been shaped by one good judge putting up Light Up The Dark.
At 9am it looked like this:
9/4 Light Up The Dark
15/8 Zanahiyr
Now it sits:
7/4 Light Up The Dark
3/1 Zanahiyr
Like Hugh Taylor, he’s an exceptional judge, but the market basically lets him dictate prices — and he won’t get every race right all the time. It’s easy to see why a horse like Zanahiyr is a favourite you’d look to take on. He’s a quirky sort who isn’t always in the mood. But at his best he ran 3rd in a Champion Hurdle behind Constitution Hill and State Man. If you want a laugh, that run was 2.25l ahead of Vauban — what price would Vauban be here off a mark of 76?!
Racing doesn’t work like that, but it does make you ask: what mark is Zanahiyr capable of running to on the flat? He’s only had five flat runs, four of them five years ago, and one of those was a 7f maiden. On his latest flat start at Killarney, he finished 4th to three very solid horses — form I’d rate strongly. They’ll have learnt plenty.
He needs a strong pace or perhaps — whisper this softly — to make the running. With the excellent Josh Williamson on board (yes, I’ve forgiven him for Tramore) claiming 7lb, he effectively runs here off 68, which is absolutely bonkers to my mind.
Two runs at Galway mean there are no fitness worries, and this is probably a nice tune-up for Listowel — but one where there’s no point not trying to win.
The market is giving us a massive discount to put all of this into practice, and this is the time to play.
7.55 Bellewstown — Zanahiyr 5/2 or better
Q.R. handicaps are curious beasts. They are more akin to bumpers than to ordinary flat races because of the weights to be carried, but the runners are rated on their flat form. The fact Light Up The Dark has won two bumpers is potentially significant in my opinion.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Bless-ed are the young(er than me) for they may have rent to pay, and mouths to feed, so, for them, losing is not an option.
Well done, fella - and the case was (almost) as good as the end result.
Well done, fella - and the case was (almost) as good as the end result.
Janthefish
Apprentice
- Joined
- Mar 17, 2016
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- 74
nice one Slim
Robicheaux
Apprentice
Well done Slim. Got 4s on the exchange.
Barnestormer
Amateur Rider
Well done Slim
Slim
Rookie
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- 4,155
Your first paragraph is almost too close to the bone. I don’t want to win, I have to win.
