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The Will Win Thread

Definitely my last say on this, i have the tea to cook.:)

The other thing about the RP results being so useless is that the winning times are obviously for the actual distance raced. But the advertised race distance is what is showing at the top. Now the vast majority of people on here will know what is what but bear in mind that there are far more "average", "not so clued up" punters out there who will look at the race times, which are slow by between 24 and 39 seconds, and maybe think that they were really slow run races. Or that the ground was far, far worse than advertised. But in reality, the races were run over extended distances of between 195 yds and 264yds.

And isnt it about a fiver a day ?????????? o_O

Right, got to go. These potatoes wont peel themselves. :)
 
This is something that, to the best of my limited knowledge, is a flaw in the info published.

Times comparisons to Standards are very misleading, assuming I am right in believing that they relate to the Standard for the normal distance.

I always adjust the comparison to allow for the extra (very occasionally less) distance actually covered. Ball-park - if a race is 55 yards longer than advertised I work out the seconds-per-yard of the Standard time and multiply it by the 55 to give an adjusted Standard time to which I can then make the comparison. It will not be exact but it won't be far off it and has served me well down the years.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This is something that, to the best of my limited knowledge, is a flaw in the info published.

Times comparisons to Standards are very misleading, assuming I am right in believing that they relate to the Standard for the normal distance.

I always adjust the comparison to allow for the extra (very occasionally less) distance actually covered. Ball-park - if a race is 55 yards longer than advertised I work out the seconds-per-yard of the Standard time and multiply it by the 55 to give an adjusted Standard time to which I can then make the comparison. It will not be exact but it won't be far off it and has served me well down the years.
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You are correct in what you say mate and with you being very much one of the more knowledgeable ones on here, you understand how it all works (or doesnt :) )
But in reality, they are publishing the winners time for a 2m 1f and 100yds race whilst attaching a "slow by 21.94secs line which refers to the advertised distance of 2m 125yds (although the RP have it at 2m and half a furlong - pedantic maybe but it is 15yds) Or at least i think it does. There isnt a "standard" for 2m 1f and 100yds so why bother printing it ?
And as i said earlier, some less knowledgeable and more casual punters wont have a clue about it and trust and believe what the RP has printed. And thats wrong !!

It all seems so lazy, so amateurish. But then again, it is the RP. We shouldnt expect nothing else.
 
I've long since noticed this - at a glance some might wonder why times are so far outside standard when it's officially Good, but once you allow for rail movement the times might end up telling you it was on the quick side of Good.

I regard it as an edge, tbh - the more confusing and misleading it is for the casual observer, the better it suits me.

Christ, I'm awful!
 
Ian_Davies said:
I've long since noticed this - at a glance some might wonder why times are so far outside standard when it's officially Good, but once you allow for rail movement the times might end up telling you it was on the quick side of Good.

I regard it as an edge, tbh - the more confusing and misleading it is for the casual observer, the better it suits me.

Christ, I'm awful!
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.
Yet, you are a virgin on this thread.
 
Slim said:
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Yet, you are a virgin on this thread.
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And likely to remain so.

I don't have a "Will Win" approach to betting.

I just want to back horses I think are the wrong price because I think the only certainties in life occur off the racecourse.

But that doesn't stop me enjoying reading this thread enormously - it's of infinitely more ongoing interest than the latest character peddling an "everybody flock to my thread and watch me paper trading some system to unspecified odds day after F-ing day."
 
Ian_Davies said:
And likely to remain so.

I don't have a "Will Win" approach to betting.

I just want to back horses I think are the wrong price because I think the only certainties in life occur off the racecourse.

But that doesn't stop me enjoying reading this thread enormously - it's of infinitely more ongoing interest than the latest character peddling an "everybody flock to my thread and watch me paper trading some system to unspecified odds day after F-ing day."
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That won't stop me holding it against you.
 
Some guess, others know where as some (such as myself) throw as much shit as possible safe in the knowledge that inevitabley some of it will stick.
 
Danny said:
Some guess, others know where as some (such as myself) throw as much shit as possible safe in the knowledge that inevitabley some of it will stick.
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Isn't that the Racing Post every day of the week?

An army of tipsters all lobbing darts at the same dart board - surely one of them will hit the treble 20 or the Bull?*

(*Check out Your Favourite Uncle Smart Arse, so big a snob he is regarded as a Male Hyacinth Bouquet/Bucket by his friends, being mildly au fait with the rules of a working class sport like Darts!)
 
Surely there's a juxtaposition between times and going that renders the whole arithmetic to guesswork?
Throw in pace (to NH racing in particular) and the whole house of cards is left to personal opinion.
 
Educated guesswork is how I'd describe it.

The clock can't lie, but it can mislead and, even if you've allowed for rail movement, if every race bar one on a card is run at a crawl, it will flatter that one race run at a solid tempo throughout.
 
reet hard said:
Surely there's a juxtaposition between times and going that renders the whole arithmetic to guesswork?
Throw in pace (to NH racing in particular) and the whole house of cards is left to personal opinion.
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I'm with reet on this one. It is just guesswork, total guesswork. "Each to their own" i always say, but i have never bothered with times, going allowances, sectionals etc etc and i have made a decent living out of this game. If it works for you - well done and i hope it continues. But it was never something i took into consideration in my punting days nor in my trading and compiling days.
 
Ian_Davies said:
And likely to remain so.

I don't have a "Will Win" approach to betting.

I just want to back horses I think are the wrong price because I think the only certainties in life occur off the racecourse.

But that doesn't stop me enjoying reading this thread enormously - it's of infinitely more ongoing interest than the latest character peddling an "everybody flock to my thread and watch me paper trading some system to unspecified odds day after F-ing day."
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Oh, Ian, you cut me to the quick. There am I labouring over my daily blog only to find I’m sending you into paroxysms of rage :eek:
 
I do study times in NH races but only selectively, usually based on the premise that a fast horse can run a slow time but a slow horse can't run a fast time.

If the latter appears to be the case there's usually an explanation: ground quicker than stated, other races on the day being collectively very slow, etc.

The other thing is that winners in slow times have proved they have more speed at some stage in the race than the others, and that can be a useful weapon in ordinary races.
 
LUKE said:
July Flowers 1:45 Cheltenham.As far as I can make out HdB has only ever run two mares against geldings in graded events at Cheltenham -Honeysuckle and Put The Kettle On.
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Shes a good mare, but absolutely 0 chance this is a will win with due respect. Not sure 2m is even her trip.

Thats a decent enough field against her, and Skelton will have his fit as a flea for this.

Best of luck to ya like, and Im hoping im not coming across a c***, shes the best horse no doubt.
 
LUKE said:
July Flowers 1:45 Cheltenham.As far as I can make out HdB has only ever run two mares against geldings in graded events at Cheltenham -Honeysuckle and Put The Kettle On.
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Personally, I think she's too short a price along with the 2nd favourite. With a fence being omitted I quite like Burdett Road's chances. Will have a saver on Breaking Cover
 

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