The "Won't Win" Thread

EC1

EC1

On a break
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I thought for those of us who don't get the info to post on Slim's thread it might be useful to note horses that you think represent bad value...obviously that gives us amateurs/non infoers a chance to put up selections that might actually show a profit. Even if we only get a few selections a week as long as they lose we have a thread that could benefit all of us.

It would be nice to see reasoning behind the lay and one main rule is that all selections must be 2.5 or less on Betfair at the time of posting.
 
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EC1 said:
I thought for those of us who don't get the info to post on Slim's thread it might be useful to note horses that you think represent bad value...obviously that gives us amateurs/non infoers a chance to put up selections that might actually show a profit. Even if we only get a few selections a week as long as they lose we have a thread that could benefit all of us.

It would be nice to see reasoning behind the lay and one main rule is that all selections must be 2.5 or less on Betfair at the time of posting.
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Good idea, EC1, especially the last bit. Finding short priced favs to oppose is almost as important as finding winners.
 
EC1 said:
I thought for those of us who don't get the info to post on Slim's thread it might be useful to note horses that you think represent bad value...
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In the 8.10 can the 3 or the 7 win? Nothing to do with this thread I know but thinking of dutching the two.
 
royal intruder is badly drawn..princess sheila also not great draw wise..both well handicapped

both have been backed by the looks of it

i wouldn't back either tbh unless i'd been on at 20s+..yes are well handicapped..but to take 8/1 i'd want to know they are ready to win and not just being backed due to dropping mark
 
EC1 said:
royal intruder is badly drawn..princess sheila also not great draw wise..both well handicapped

both have been backed by the looks of it

i wouldn't back either tbh unless i'd been on at 20s+..yes are well handicapped..but to take 8/1 i'd want to know they are ready to win and not just being backed due to dropping mark
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Thanks - 15.5i+ on the machine good for me.
 
Pivotal Movement in the 7.40 was a place lay for me, but the three n/r's were a bit of a sickner. Come down to 1.58 which still looks a very skinny price to me.

Beaten big time on two runs at the track and not put in a decent time compared to most of the opposition.

Possible Hughes may try and force this stepping down in trip which should actually suit the other market leaders.

Simply does not look a 1/2 shot to place to me.
 
i should have also said..no place lays..i don't really believe anyone can be sure a horse won't place...even horses that don't like the going place on it
 
Good idea. I will delete it then.

I actually think he ran poorly without looking at the time, but few got into the race. Hit 1.34 for £1500 in the win market and got beat 3 lths.
 
i should have also said..no place lays
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Oh no, E.C., please don't make that a rule-in-stone. :blink:
Someone might have word about a definite pig at a shortie price. In that eventuality, a Place Lay at ridiculous odds-on is the way to go for small outlay at possible big return.

Great thread, btw !
 
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icebreaker said:
Oh no, E.C., please don't make that a rule-in-stone. :blink:
Someone might have word about a definite pig at a shortie price. In that eventuality, a Place Lay at ridiculous odds-on is the way to go for small outlay at possible big return.
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I've had two this year from a yard that were odds on to place that really shouldn't have been due to being useless but if they're unexposed and in certain colours the machine loves them.
 
doomster said:
Good idea. I will delete it then.

I actually think he ran poorly without looking at the time, but few got into the race. Hit 1.34 for £1500 in the win market and got beat 3 lths.
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no problem Doomster..even had it got beat would have still felt same way

if someone puts up a 2.5 or less win lay shot and wants to say place lay then no prob..but i'd only win lay it personally
 
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icebreaker said:
Oh no, E.C., please don't make that a rule-in-stone. :blink:
Someone might have word about a definite pig at a shortie price. In that eventuality, a Place Lay at ridiculous odds-on is the way to go for small outlay at possible big return.

Great thread, btw !
Click to expand...

just covered this...2.5 or less win lay ..then fair enough

we'll compromise:)..off to watch the footie
 
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I will crep back into my hole if this wins.

Kem 7.40 Dancing Sands. win lay @ 1.89

Possibly more of an in running lay on the basis she has been beaten @ 2.32/2.02/1.26 on her three runs.

Trainer also in fairly moderate form with 2yo's at the moment.

will take some beating if anything near 78 and only one opponent in single figures but taking the chance she chucks it late on.
 
Finished 4th. Hit a low of 1.01 in the place market and did go very low in running in the win market.

1.10 £468 £324
1.11 £18 £1,128
1.12 £721
1.13 £6
1.14 £42
1.15 £5 £3,098
 
Murasil in the 8.40 muddys the waters for the thread. I really thought it would be too big on the poor trainer form but is 11/8, but 2.96 on betfair.

Trainers usuall S?R for this type of race is around 24%, but is struggling since the start of september with 1/15 in 3yo maidens= 7%, not including todays results.

Put a lay in @ 2.5 in the hope of getting matched pre race.
 
Finished 6th, with a place sp of 1.53 and the other Suroor runner was also backed, with a place sp of 1.79 and also unplaced.

I never even considered dutch laying both @ 2.12
 
well beat though Doomster

9.10 Kempton Pretty Bubbles

lay price 2.48

reasoning

2 Sire negatives:

Age 4+ at Kempton= 0/38
Age 4+ & 7f+ on AW = 3/80 = 3.80% = AE 0.33
 
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Well done EC.

reasoning

2 Sire negatives:

Age 4+ at Kempton= 0/38
Age 4+ & 7f+ on AW = 3/80 = 3.80% = AE 0.33
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I also thought form would be an issue, even with expected improvement. Princess Spirit had better form with trouble in last two runs.

I chickened out with a back @ 4.4 and lay back @ 2.24.

Just started watching The Tunnel. Hooked already.
 
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