Tingle Creek Chase

Worth remembering that Sanctuaire has a well deserved squiggle on his Timeform hurdles rating. The key to him over fences has been him getting into a rhythm and being allowed to do his own thing. I'll be surprised if he can do that tomorrow.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a Wishfull Thinking type performance from him tomorrow, going off in a clear lead, probably too fast for his own good, and then dropping the lot and falling a hole when the gun is put to his head.

The temptation is to lay him for a place.
 
Agree with that DJ.

Though watching his Sandown win again today reminds you he was very impressive, very quick at his fences.

It's all or nothing with him, but I'd be very disappointed if his all was good enough.
 
he doesn't appear to do his all at this time of year though...I can't see why he should run himself into the ground tomorrow any more than he didn't do that last run..he just won't be at his best anyway judged on his past runs

far more likely to drop back due to not being 100% rather than going too fast early..many thought he had gone too fast last time..but he hadn't
 
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Perhaps not EC but he's hardly been around long enough to be saying that. He did win first time up for PN and was going well in the Greatwood when he fell. This is the Tingle Creek, his Gold Cup if you like and PN who dominated this race for so long will have him spot on.......Guaranteed!!!
 
Tanlic said:
Perhaps not EC but he's hardly been around long enough to be saying that. He did win first time up for PN and was going well in the Greatwood when he fell. This is the Tingle Creek, his Gold Cup if you like and PN who dominated this race for so long will have him spot on.......Guaranteed!!!
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you can't always force that though..sometimes horses come right at certain times of the year

it may or may not be the case here but even without SS in the race i'd be laying Sanctuaire

i'm looking forward to watching this race..then we get another hopefully great spectacle the day after

Led Zep are on TV tomorrow night as well just fill the time;)
 
EC1 said:
Dan Breen's run shows somersby didn't run to his mark though
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Too true he never....Dominic Elsworth was clearly waiting for Sanctuaire to come back to him and was caught napping. He definitely assumed Sanctuaire had gone off to fast.

It wasn't until the fence before the pond fence that Elseworth got the message that he better get a move on and by that time he was never going to get to the winner.

It's not like it was some monkey out in front it was a well fancied Paul Nichols horse with a top class jockey on board and the penny to get closer earlier surely would have dropped had a better jockey been on board Somersby.

All things considered it may well have beena pretty poor Grade 2 race Sanctuaire had won. It was the end of the season and very often the form is even less trustworthy than early season form.

More importantly the secret is out and Barry will be wise to the fact that Sanctuaire could try and do the same here.

He has so much horse underneath him Barry will be able to be wherever he wants to be and while Sanctuaire may be a bit faster than some Sprinter Sacre has met in the past the horse has never had to come out of a canter to lie handy with any of them.......So unless Sanctuare is Pegasus reincarnated he's not going to get any 25 length leads today.

I don't think he has a hope in hell of beating Sprinter Sacre and the only thing that might is the ground or he slips up.

I expect nothing less from Sprinter Sacre than to do exactly the same to Sanctuaire as he's done to everything else he's met over fences.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had a gander at the form. I think it would be very dangerous to take Sanctuaire's Sandown win at face value although he most certainly was visually incredibly impressive. However, the bare form falls 6lbs short of the OR he was given for it so the handicapper also factored in the ease of victory.

Sprinter Sacre won at least as easily three far better races (Newbury, Cheltenham, Aintree) posting figures 10lbs higher.

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I have to almost agree with your figures DO - I have Sprinter Sacre 12lbs ahead. Your figures would put Sanctuaire on the same mark as Paul Nicholls highest rated novice chaser Azertyuiop. I remember a lot of similarities on other boards in 2003 when Azertyuiop was heading to the Tingle creek against the mighty Moscow Flyer. MF won a comfortable 4L that day and AZ somewhat fortunately won the Queen Mother as MF fell but on a line through Flagship Uberalles - AZ did run about 7lbs above his rating in the TC and another 4lbs in the QMCC. Now the first time Moscow Flyer encountered Sandown was in the Tingle Creek the year before where he made a bad mistake and unseated. The question is; Is Sprinter Sacre as good as or better than Moscow Flyer? Is Sanctuaire as good as Azertyuiop? I expect both trainers would answer yes to these questions. SS faces the Sandown fences for the first time so there is hope for Sanctuaire. The only blip on Sprinter Sacre's record was in the supreme Novices when as usual he was cruising but whacked the last and downed tools, he has yet to touch a twig efore or since. Those railway fences will be interesting. A fascinating race that is a must watch for all the right reasons, whatever the result. I just hope they both run there best races then at least in the future when discussing 2m chasers I'll have something to argue with when Moscow Flyer is (rightfully) mentioned as the best.:D
 
Can't actually believe we are talking Sanctuaire up in the same breath as azertyuiop,Moscow and Sprinter.The only conceivable way that sprinter will be beaten today is the ground and that's clutching at straws.I have SS double figures of lbs in hand over Sanctuaire.Last years novices are the best for a while and the form is being franked week after week.al Ferof and cue card (who I expect to go v close in kg) were swatted aside and I expect Sanctuaire to be as well quite readily.I just don't think Sanctuaire is good enough to get SS off the bridle and when he can't get him off the bridle how will Sanctuaires jumping hold up because he is a bit........quirky.It wouldn't surprise me if kumbeshwar knicks second
 
its plain to even my cat that SS is a lot better than Sanctuaire..i doubt many think otherwise...its like thinking another flat horse was better than Frankel

but FTO you just never know can happen..but personally i think S will be below his best anyway
 
Much of Sanctuaire's 'quirkiness' was probably his objection to being restrained (always been headstrong) but, by the same token, he's been a much better horse since allowed to bowl along, and I wouldn't be laying him on the strength of his 'squiggle'.
 
Sanctuarie for me nicholls has been talking up this horse a lot and when nicholls does that you must listen ,only 3lb between them I fancy sanctuarie today !!!
 
mayes king kauto said:
Sanctuarie for me nicholls has been talking up this horse a lot and when nicholls does that you must listen ,only 3lb between them I fancy sanctuarie today !!!
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that 3lb is based on SS cantering...today if S runs as he normally does at this time of year its likely to be 20

i'd rather back a fast trapping T1 fav at Wimbledon than back S to win..but good luck..i'll just enjoy the race
 
an ss and cc double im sure im not the only one!what about flemenstar aswel or is that over confidence???
 
May or may not make any difference but it's likely the Pond Fence will be omitted because of the setting sun.
 
the race was a dream..we got just what we wanted..both horses jumped well after a couple of early casuals...sanctuaire was gutted once SS walked past him.
 
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