Tingle Creek Likely runners?

Euronymous said:
How does everyone think Big Zeb will cope with the Railway Fences et al? .
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2 miles around Sandown is not somewhere you can get away with making jumping errors. It has to be a worry and as Steve mentioned the price would need to reflect these concerns. If he clouts a couple he could find himself a few lengths down in the blink of an eye. FORPADY' is interesting at the price....
 
I'm thinking of having my biggest bet in a long time on Well Chief at 7/2 each way. I just can't see how he can finish out of the front 3 once he stands up.
 
Even then I'd still be shocked to see him out of the first 3 - what do you make of his chances?
 
Hamm said:
Even then I'd still be shocked to see him out of the first 3 - what do you make of his chances?
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Surprised he's not fav tbh.Why is he drifting ?

It's a cracking race as usual. I think we'll see a different Big Zeb this year, no more silly mistakes.I think he's a horse that just needs a lot of practice and apparently he's been getting it. Crack away Jack is an exciting one and the experience will stand to him but he might find the competition a bit hot so early in his chasing career. If I had to have a bet which I don't it would be Barker.
 
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I'm not sure Well Chief's current form stands up to scutiny. Since his first long lay-off, you have his Game Spirit win where he was held up off an overly-strong pace set by runner-up Ashleybrook. The fact that a horse like Jupon Vert was beaten only something like 40l in that race is a further reason to be sceptical about whether that bare form amounts to as much as it appears. Following his 2nd lay off, it's difficult to suggest the bare form amounts to anything better than mid-150's. Newmill has been held in a handicap off 150 this season but was beaten just three and a half lengths in the Champion Chase by Well Chief and 5 lengths in the Connaught.
 
Good looking Novice chase on the same card. I suppose Crack Away Jack would be better suited to that than being thrown in at the deep end.
 
Barker among the decs for the Durkan, so remains a possible non-runner in the Tingle Creek.
 
Crack Away Jack row of blue on oddschecker but owner saying on ATR he'd be surprised if they didn't run in the novice.
 
davidjohnson said:
Crack Away Jack row of blue on oddschecker but owner saying on ATR he'd be surprised if they didn't run in the novice.
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Interesting... Like the owner, we should probably expect him to run in the novice chase. Perhaps they are waiting to see if the TC cuts up.
 
The only piece of form that makes Big Zeb anything even remotely approaching a 6/4 shot is his second to Master Minded at last year's Punchestown festival. As unluckly as he was on that occassion, that form looks far from solid. Given the way the race unfolded, with Master Minded looking to have the field cooked two out only to seemingly finish legless, I'm incline to believe Nicholls' excuses in this case. Twelve lengths back to Conna Castle (better over further) hardly screams rock solid form either.

I'm slightly wary of taking a firm stand on Big Zeb, given that I had him down in the back of my head as slightly soft for a good while (which I now concede was certainly inaccurate), and have a feeling that may still be (unfairly) affecting my judgment of the horse. He still looked to be fairly slow over his fences at Navan on his reappearance and, while he didn't make any significant blunders, he didn't jump with the speed I reckon top two mile chasers generally need to. Has to be taken on at 2's or under I reckon.
 
I doubt Well Chief would need to be anywhere near his best to win this renewal . If he were he would win it in a hack canter.

I think he will go close but this is Twist Magic's time of year and he was running a very big race in it last year. I fear he will beat the Chief

Big Zeb may well be improving rapidly but with his jumping record and the Railway fences the price is miles too short.
 
Ardross said:
I doubt Well Chief would need to be anywhere near his best to win this renewal . If he were he would win it in a hack canter.

I think he will go close but this is Twist Magic's time of year and he was running a very big race in it last year. I fear he will beat the Chief

Big Zeb may well be improving rapidly but with his jumping record and the Railway fences the price is miles too short.
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But if Big Zeb does manage to jump the course shouldn't he win?
 
That depends how much credit you give to the punchestown result. Ignore that and all you can say is he's in the mix with a few others. It's probably not fair to totally ignore that run, but given the time of year it's certainly worth questioning. While it would be no shock if he won, from a betting perspective I wouldn't touch him at his current price. I'm not sure he even deserves to be favourite over Twist Magic and Well Chief. I'd find it hard to choose between the three if they were all the same price.
 
Noticed Corals have been shortest on Barker all week but now stand-out at 12's. Trying to balance the book or aware of his non-participation?
 
How cynical DJ, maybe their head of trading realised on of their traders had formed an opinion and put them back in their box. Looks like Fix The Rib is running by the market.
 
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Lets hope so. A massive PB looks on the cards under these conditions, but it still might only get him fifth!
 
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