Tingle Creek

I don`t think he`s poor per se, he`s a smashing animal over 2m4f. But think of the weight carrying performances Azerty put up and then compare those to the Game Spirit when VPU couldn`t even get round or even the Old Roan where he was never in contention.
 
betsmate said:
Would anyone on here back Master Minded giving weight to Moscow Flyer? I wouldn't.
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Based on their respective best-ratings performances, I'd back MM to give MF anything up to 3lbs. I'd be unwilling to make the call at 4 or 5lbs, while 6lbs would probably tip the balance in favour of MF.

I wouldn't back Desert Orchid to give MM any weight.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Based on their respective best-ratings performances, I'd back MM to give MF anything up to 3lbs. I'd be unwilling to make the call at 4 or 5lbs, while 6lbs would probably tip the balance in favour of MF.

I wouldn't back Desert Orchid to give MM any weight.
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It will be interesting to see how MM fairs for the rest of the season in terms of what rating he hits.

RPR gave MM 177 for yesterday.

Despite Tidal Bay hitting every fence and clearly finding the two miles too sharp they have him rated to have run up to his best novice form :rolleyes:
 
I don't get this obsession with carrying big weights. The only thing that matters when it comes to carrying big weights is physical size - you wouldn't expect a horse like Istabraq to carry 12 stone around in a County Hurdle yet few would argue Rhinestone Cowboy (who did something similar with a very poor jockey on top) is better than him.
 
It's not an unfair assessment to factor in some improvement from Tidal Bay from his novice year to now - another year under his belt, bigger, stronger etc. Gal. Takeroc improving too and Twist Magic running to his rating from last year would all justify a rating for Master Minded somewhere near his CC run.
 
Irish Stamp said:
It's not an unfair assessment to factor in some improvement from Tidal Bay from his novice year to now - another year under his belt, bigger, stronger etc. Gal. Takeroc improving too and Twist Magic running to his rating from last year would all justify a rating for Master Minded somewhere near his CC run.
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I cannot have Tidal Bay running to a career best yesterday when he was labouring in terms of jumping and travelling from so far out yesterday. No chance.
 
Irish Stamp said:
I don't get this obsession with carrying big weights. The only thing that matters when it comes to carrying big weights is physical size - you wouldn't expect a horse like Istabraq to carry 12 stone around in a County Hurdle yet few would argue Rhinestone Cowboy (who did something similar with a very poor jockey on top) is better than him.
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I dont think it is an obsession...just a helpful guide or pointer.

I remember when Azertyuiop did those massive performances in handicaps that everyone said he must be better than Moscow. Clearly as results showed he wasn't but they certainly helped to give a solid marker as to how to rate Moscow and co.
 
Galileo said:
I cannot have Tidal Bay running to a career best yesterday when he was labouring in terms of jumping and travelling from so far out yesterday. No chance.
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I think he certainly ran like a horse that will improve over further, but, on a line through Takeroc, he ran up to the form of his Aintree win.

There is no doubt he will be better over further.
 
Irish Stamp said:
I don't get this obsession with carrying big weights. The only thing that matters when it comes to carrying big weights is physical size - you wouldn't expect a horse like Istabraq to carry 12 stone around in a County Hurdle yet few would argue Rhinestone Cowboy (who did something similar with a very poor jockey on top) is better than him.
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totally agree...already made a similar point re VPU being judged on his handicap races..something I find bizarre tbh.

there are many horses can carry big weights in handicaps and run well/win..but they are totally out of their depth in graded races...so using weight carried in handicaps as a marker to brilliance is not totally valid
 
I dont think Azerty or Moscow could have beaten Master Minded in last years Champion Chase, the only horse I have seen able to , and not sure ,is the best Kauto Star.
 
nothing has happened in the last 3 years to change my opinion:D

they were quite close, for me slightly better Azerty.
 
Gearoid said:
OK it was odds on but nice shout all the same...
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Thanks Gearoid

Anyway If ya want winners stick with me I am 2 from 2.

Imperial Commander (Paddy Power GC) advised at 8-1
Master Minded 4-6

The only other 2 bets for this year I have already had anti post.

Imperial Commander (Boylesports advised at 7-2)
Kauto Star (King George) advised at 15-8

Kauto is purely on what I think of the horse going right handed although many here disagree on which they are fully entitled but are unfortuantley oh so wrong.

Imperial Commander is in rude health and is expected by connections to trot in. Again on here a lot think he may be over bet and did not beat much in the PP?
 
EC1 said:
could you show how KS is a better horse right handed Arial?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gearoid
Lets not be too quick to write off Kauto Star. He has been a bit flat on his last three runs but if he is o.k after todays run he will take some beating at Kempton and I would be very tempted to take the 6/4.

Your quite correct do not write him off and the 6/4 for the King George is looking very tasty so thankyou very much I will have a bit of that and so should the rest of you and I will explain why.

Kauto Star's form suggests that on undulating tracks, in competitive races, he is best at short of 3 miles.

Some Stats:

9 runs between 2m4f and 3m, won 8 and 2nd in the other.

He has run three times above 3m and won once, an arguably substandard and slow-paced Gold Cup.

He's 6 from 6 over 3m, five of those on flat tracks the other at Down Royal which imo is only mildly undulating.

6 from 6 right handed in most recent races and 2 from 5 left handed

IMO Kauto is one of the best we have seen but does have his faults, this is seen at Cheltenham in all his runs their he has jumped in total 46 fences falling at 1 and making errors at a further 7 you do the maths. Also see his runs at Aintree and Haydock again more mistakes.

The thing that impresses me about the right handed victories is the manner in which he has won them.

The last time he made a mistake right handed was in the 2006 King George. His three right handed runs since then Kempton, Ascot and Down Royal have been error free and won in a canter.

IMO Kauto will be back to his best with his favourite conditions and trip oh and the small matter of Mr Walsh back on board (Hopefully).
 
Arial_Ortega said:
Thanks Gearoid

Anyway If ya want winners stick with me I am 2 from 2.

Imperial Commander (Paddy Power GC) advised at 8-1
Master Minded 4-6

The only other 2 bets for this year I have already had anti post.

Imperial Commander (Boylesports advised at 7-2)
Kauto Star (King George) advised at 15-8

Kauto is purely on what I think of the horse going right handed although many here disagree on which they are fully entitled but are unfortuantley oh so wrong.

Imperial Commander is in rude health and is expected by connections to trot in. Again on here a lot think he may be over bet and did not beat much in the PP?
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Arial - I think it's fair to say that there's maybe only 2 or possibly 3 people that have posted disagreement with you about Kauto going right-handed or what Imperial Commander beat in the PP. I'm also pretty sure that you thought Kauto was a cert in the Betfair ;)

FWIW I'll be cheering Imperial Commander on in the Boylesports though, I was impressed with him in the PP given his long injury layoff and I hope he continues to progress.
 
cheers Arial

seems to be a decent argument there

I just can't take a short price about KS...he is brilliant and all that but there is just that nagging doubt with me about him.

will have to read the KG thread.
 
12 months ago twist magic.now master minded would of beat moscow flyer without coming off bridle.come march should well chief turn up at cheltenham judge his proximity to master minded as a guide to if mm would of beat mf.bear mind moscow was at least 2l superior to wc and the fact the pipe horse as had 2 long layoffs.when well chief out jumps mm in march and puts it upto him up the hill then judge mm.
 
Not sure that anyone suggested Twist Magic was better than Moscow Flyer in honesty? At least don't recall anyone saying so. I'd be surpised if Well Chief turns up at Cheltenham, quite apart from whether he can be competitive
 
dont really think well chief will turn up myself warbleer.just got a bit carried away.there was however many a mark who said twist magic was on a par with moscow.two of those people were richard dunwoody and norman williamson.
 
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