EC1
On a break
I've started a thread on this horse because i think he is something a bit special.
Every year i check the sectionals of the Craven to see if the winner is good enough to win a Guineas. Over a period of time you can build a realtionship between early and late splits...I also then add the guineas winners sectionals to give more data.
First job is to remove ground/wind speed by just calculating a straightforward going allowance for the whole card..then adjust each section so that all times can then be compared with each other from each year.
An interesting start comparison is Haafhd..these are his splits for the first 5f and last 3f in the Craven and Guineas.
Haafhd
Craven: 63.9--34.8
Guineas:60.3--37.4
His Guineas win was in a truly run race compared with the very slow early in the Craven..the final 3f times reflect that clearly. It might be fair to say you won't see many slower early run Craven's than that.
An interesting comparison can be made between Rock Of Gibraltor and Camelot's Guineas wins because they covered the first 5f in similar times
ROG = 62.7--36.0
Camelot = 62.7--35.7
One horse that clearly wasn't good enough was Democratic Deficit..his splits in the Craven were
Democratic Deficit
63.4--36
his early time is 0.7 slower than ROG but late time was the same,,,he should have been able to beat ROG's last 3f time not equal it with the early energy he saved
This see-saw in early v late can be charted and it does give you an idea of what late pace you can expect after you know the early time.
So if you run
60.5 early..you need to run 37.2 late to win an average guineas.
62.7 early would be something like 35.8 late.
64.0 early would be something like 34.7 late.
Moving onto Toronado..his early time was 62.7
So looking at the scale above his final time should be something like 35.8.
His final time was a staggering 33.3
Its going to take a smart miler to beat him this season if sectionals are actually telling us something..which they certainly appear to be doing
edited for error
Every year i check the sectionals of the Craven to see if the winner is good enough to win a Guineas. Over a period of time you can build a realtionship between early and late splits...I also then add the guineas winners sectionals to give more data.
First job is to remove ground/wind speed by just calculating a straightforward going allowance for the whole card..then adjust each section so that all times can then be compared with each other from each year.
An interesting start comparison is Haafhd..these are his splits for the first 5f and last 3f in the Craven and Guineas.
Haafhd
Craven: 63.9--34.8
Guineas:60.3--37.4
His Guineas win was in a truly run race compared with the very slow early in the Craven..the final 3f times reflect that clearly. It might be fair to say you won't see many slower early run Craven's than that.
An interesting comparison can be made between Rock Of Gibraltor and Camelot's Guineas wins because they covered the first 5f in similar times
ROG = 62.7--36.0
Camelot = 62.7--35.7
One horse that clearly wasn't good enough was Democratic Deficit..his splits in the Craven were
Democratic Deficit
63.4--36
his early time is 0.7 slower than ROG but late time was the same,,,he should have been able to beat ROG's last 3f time not equal it with the early energy he saved
This see-saw in early v late can be charted and it does give you an idea of what late pace you can expect after you know the early time.
So if you run
60.5 early..you need to run 37.2 late to win an average guineas.
62.7 early would be something like 35.8 late.
64.0 early would be something like 34.7 late.
Moving onto Toronado..his early time was 62.7
So looking at the scale above his final time should be something like 35.8.
His final time was a staggering 33.3
Its going to take a smart miler to beat him this season if sectionals are actually telling us something..which they certainly appear to be doing
edited for error
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Shirley Heights ongoing influence in a pedigree for stamina is extraordinary.