Toronado

EC1 said:
Toronado has demonstrated great speed to win last time though
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He does have a surprising amount of speed, although probably not as much as appearance might suggest. This actually encourages me about his chances for the Derby rather than diminish them.

Of course it does not exclude him staying middle distances as well. (Camelot proved to be this type of horse last year.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I confess to a comprehension gap...

I haven't done the time ratings for the meeting yet but I see Toronado has a very slow TS. How does that reconcile with impressive sectionals? I'd have thought the more impressive the sectionals the better the overall time? It sounds to me like Toronado may have given himself the run of the race.
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Adjustments can be made to the overall timefigure based on sectionals at varying points. Camerawork at HQ makes the last 3f split the best one to take for accurate figures.

Using the logic that Toronado could have run a faster overall time if his he had run more efficiently i.e. more even pace not slow/fast, the sectional upgrade to the speedfig gives a fig in the 120's. One that suggests his formfigure of a similar rating doesn't flatter him, even if the overall time might lead you to that conclusion.
 
I wish I had the time to get into sectionals but I respect the work of those who do (no patronising intended) so I accept these conclusions even though it goes against my gut. I'm still a bit raw from losses incurred following Trumpet Major after I disagreed with you and EC1 about his trial run!

Going off at a tangent, I've now done some of my own time ratings for last week's races. While Toronado's is pretty slow (just 85 before any wfa adjustment) ones that do strike me as pretty fast are those recorded by the closing 11f-and-change handicap at Newbury on Saturday. Either it was just the fastest race on the round course on a day of slow times or the principals are a lot better than the published RPRs.

Any thoughts anyone?
 
What view did you take on Trumpet because Hughes broke his heart in the Guineas. He was never the same after that and showed immense bravery to run 4th in the Guineas.
 
Sheikh said:
Yes I still don't think he'll get 1m4f but it's a possibility.
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He'll definitely get 10 and not too much doubt about 12 I'd say... in fact to me he looks to be screaming out for it (aside from the stamina aptitude analysis which says the same).
 
I was very stubbornly of the opinion that to win the Craven by five lengths under a penalty, giving 15lb, 18lb and 23lb beatings to opponents with ORs of 113, 103 and 93 without being hard ridden and with improvement to follow made him rather than Camelot very much the one to beat in the Guineas. On lines with Ptolemaic, he may have underperformed but not by much and they did race wide apart anyway, with possibly better ground on the far (Ptolemaic's) side.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was very stubbornly of the opinion that to win the Craven by five lengths under a penalty, giving 15lb, 18lb and 23lb beatings to opponents with ORs of 113, 103 and 93 without being hard ridden and with improvement to follow made him rather than Camelot very much the one to beat in the Guineas. On lines with Ptolemaic, he may have underperformed but not by much and they did race wide apart anyway, with possibly better ground on the far (Ptolemaic's) side.
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Trumpet Major imo is a horse we never saw the best off and probaly never will now. He was brutalised in the Guineas.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Going off at a tangent, I've now done some of my own time ratings for last week's races. While Toronado's is pretty slow (just 85 before any wfa adjustment) ones that do strike me as pretty fast are those recorded by the closing 11f-and-change handicap at Newbury on Saturday. Either it was just the fastest race on the round course on a day of slow times or the principals are a lot better than the published RPRs.

Any thoughts anyone?
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What race are You talking about?
 
Would absolutely love to see High Chaparral get a Derby winner and as I said elsewhere Toronado really impressed me at Doncaster last year and won the Craven as you'd want to see given what he was asked to do.

I am a little bit sceptical about him getting 12f. Most of his family seem to be milers, but there's the likes of Casamento who got 8f at 2 and 10f at 3 and was by Shamardal (who you wouldn't expect to provide the kind of stamina that High Chaparral might). Physically, I don't think he looks like an out-and-out miler.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wish I had the time to get into sectionals but I respect the work of those who do (no patronising intended) so I accept these conclusions even though it goes against my gut. I'm still a bit raw from losses incurred following Trumpet Major after I disagreed with you and EC1 about his trial run!

Going off at a tangent, I've now done some of my own time ratings for last week's races. While Toronado's is pretty slow (just 85 before any wfa adjustment) ones that do strike me as pretty fast are those recorded by the closing 11f-and-change handicap at Newbury on Saturday. Either it was just the fastest race on the round course on a day of slow times or the principals are a lot better than the published RPRs.

Any thoughts anyone?
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the last race won by Soviet Rock would be a race that looks fast DO..the Newbury one you mention doesn't look fast just glancing at teh RP standards

Feels Like Dancing 9.77 slow..7.1 slow per mile
Take Two 8.42 slow..6.73 slow per mile
Universal 7.06 slow..4.7 slow per mile

i can't see how FLD has run an overly fast time tbh...at best compared to Take Two he has run 0.37 sec pm slower than a class 4 race..at worst 2.4 seconds slower than a 107/110 horse

looks like a 70 ish speed rating to me..unless i've misread summat

i got Toranado running a 100 speed fig without wfa..which isn't pedestrian..the key though is that his splits tell you he is better than any recent guineas winner bar Frankel..to run the last 3f in that time is impressive.
 
EC1 said:
i got Toranado running a 100 speed fig without wfa..which isn't pedestrian..the key though is that his splits tell you he is better than any recent guineas winner bar Frankel..to run the last 3f in that time is impressive.
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Does that not just mean he's fast over 3f? What evidence is there that he could do that time off a faster initial 5f?

Jack Ramsden once said of one of his horses (Mellottie?) that they could run 2f in 22s therefore could win just about any handicap they wanted. Is Toronado any faster than that?
 
EC1 said:
the last race won by Soviet Rock would be a race that looks fast DO..the Newbury one you mention doesn't look fast just glancing at teh RP standards

Feels Like Dancing 9.77 slow..7.1 slow per mile
Take Two 8.42 slow..6.73 slow per mile
Universal 7.06 slow..4.7 slow per mile

i can't see how FLD has run an overly fast time tbh...at best compared to Take Two he has run 0.37 sec pm slower than a class 4 race..at worst 2.4 seconds slower than a 107/110 horse

looks like a 70 ish speed rating to me..unless i've misread summat
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Soviet Rock's race is tricky in that it looks fast compared with other races but I just wonder if it's the race from which to extrapolate the going allowance for the day. I'm always wary about calculating GAs from a card full of 3yo races and I think handicaps tend to be truer-run, so I tend to rely on them. That rate makes the rest of the card look slow and it has a recent history of producing horses that prove better than handicappers. It was 15lbs slower than Toronado, though, and only 6lbs faster than the Wood Ditton.
 
I have FLD just 3lbs slower than Take Two before wfa kicks in.

We obviously use different calculations for our figures.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Does that not just mean he's fast over 3f? What evidence is there that he could do that time off a faster initial 5f?
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he doesn't need to run faster than that?

no it means you look at how the first 5f is related to the last 3f.. .if to read back you should see what i'm getting at

its easy to chart the first 5f against the last 3f..for example Frankel ran the last 3 in 38.0..on its own it tells you nothing...but when you see how fast he ran the first 5 it tells a story..when you have enough data you can plot a rough graph of early and late pace realtionship...Toronado's late related to his early speed is exceptional..about 1.5to 2 seconds faster over the last 3 than an average guineas winner should clock

its about knowing what the expected last 3f time should be basically
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have FLD just 3lbs slower than Take Two before wfa kicks in.

We obviously use different calculations for our figures.
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i just used the RP times as a quck mock up..no matter how you calculate the figures though..using the RP standards will not give a big figure

its not a poor figure..but can't see as its exceptional..whereas the other one at Newmarket appears to be ...because if you used the race as par it makes every other race on the card extremely slow..which the finishing split %'s tells you isn't the case at all
 
EC1 said:
its not a poor figure..but can't see as its exceptional..
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I didn't say it was exceptional. I said 'pretty fast'. I should probably have added 'for a Class 4 maiden' or something. Having arrived at a rating of 100+ for the winner, compared with an RPR of 86, I can see me being interested in any of the principals in a handicap next time out.

EC1 said:
..because if you used the race as par it makes every other race on the card extremely slow..which the finishing split %'s tells you isn't the case at all
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I think at this stage of the season, given the awful winter we've had, we need to tread carefully with the form in general. Are you referring to the finishing split percentages of all the races that day?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I didn't say it was exceptional. I said 'pretty fast'. I should probably have added 'for a Class 4 maiden' or something. Having arrived at a rating of 100+ for the winner, compared with an RPR of 86, I can see me being interested in any of the principals in a handicap next time out.


I think at this stage of the season, given the awful winter we've had, we need to tread carefully with the form in general. Are you referring to the finishing split percentages of all the races that day?
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mainly Windchoeks race which was 100.9% suggesting a pretty evenly run race..i got that particular race 5lb slow on overall time..if you use the last race as par though..it would make Windchoecks rating 25lbs slow..which isn't viable. The only race i got with a bigger speed figure than OHR on the day was the last,,by a big margin
 
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So if you run

60.5 early..you need to run 37.2 late to win an average guineas.
62.7 early would be something like 35.8 late.
64.0 early would be something like 34.7 late.

Moving onto Toronado..his early time was 62.7

So looking at the scale above his final time should be something like 35.8.

His final time was a staggering 33.3
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This is what I'm struggling with. 62.7 early seems fast enough (cf ROG etc) and you sy his final 3f was 'staggering'. I don't understand how a good early split and a staggering late split can lead to a slowish overall time.

What am I missing?
 
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