Toronado

[EC1]

This is what I'm struggling with. 62.7 early seems fast enough (cf ROG etc) and you sy his final 3f was 'staggering'. I don't understand how a good early split and a staggering late split can lead to a slowish overall time.

What am I missing?

62.7 is slower than even pace though..which will stop a large final time figure..even with a fast 3f run..60.5 to 61.0 would be even pace

the thing is though..Toronado hasn't run a very slow overall speed figure if you remove that last race..which is freakish..in fact Toronado has run about 14lb faster than Windchoeck...who has run arguably not far from his rating...[Timeform make his speed figure equal to his rating].even though he has not run even pace..telling you his last 3f was very strong

 

[davidjohnson]

Toronado's timeform computer timefigure was in the low 100s. 104 I think, but I'm not in front of PC now. Form rating is 123p. It's his timefigure with an adjust for the final 3f sec that would make him in the mid 120s.

 

[Harbinger]

The last race was only about 1.5 lengths off a track record. Clearly wind had gone behind them by then?

 

[davidjohnson]

Fully agree with those suggesting he won't stay 12f. Classics could be some great betting contests as if he wins the Guineas, he'll be about 2s for the Derby? Oppose!

 

[davidjohnson]

The last race was only about 1.5 lengths off a track record. Clearly wind had gone behind them by then?

Blustery day, and by that stage the wind was right behind them. Would be wary of direct time comparison with other races on card, even if first 2 from that hcap will probably prove to be 100+ horses.

 

[EC1]

Blustery day, and by that stage the wind was right behind them. Would be wary of direct time comparison with other races on card, even if first 2 from that hcap will probably prove to be 100+ horses.

its definately a freak time.. will still be interesting to see what the first 3 do in their next couple of runs

 

[Desert Orchid]

62.7 is slower than even pace though..which will stop a large final time figure..even with a fast 3f run..60.5 to 61.0 would be even pace

Ah, I thought you were suggesting his first 5f weren't that slow.

Fully agree with those suggesting he won't stay 12f. Classics could be some great betting contests as if he wins the Guineas, he'll be about 2s for the Derby? Oppose!

I've learned not to dismiss Steve M's analyses of the dosage figures in these situations. If Toronado is a strong shout for the Guineas and Steve says he'll be more effective at 12f than a mile, then I wouldn't be keen to oppose him.

Toronado's timeform computer timefigure was in the low 100s. 104 I think, but I'm not in front of PC now. Form rating is 123p. It's his timefigure with an adjust for the final 3f sec that would make him in the mid 120s.

Are Timeform in the habit of making such adjustments?

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've thought of something else...

Toronado made all, right?

If he was already ahead 3f out and won by 4L, the others in behind must also have put up very smart final splits, mustn't they? 4L is a bit less than a second so if his split was 'staggering', then the others' must have been teetering.

 

[davidjohnson]

Are Timeform in the habit of making such adjustments?

Timeform are indeed in the habit of taking as much data as is available to analyse it in the belief that it can help provide a more accurate assessment. It's not the Holy Grail, but it's another piece to the jigsaw if you'll forgive the cliches.

Good point you make about the others, Havana Gold gets a similar mark up to his rating, but his speed figure was obviously 4 lengths slower. His adjustments suggests he's around a 110 horse, something his form does too.

 

[EC1]

I've thought of something else...

Toronado made all, right?

If he was already ahead 3f out and won by 4L, the others in behind must also have put up very smart final splits, mustn't they? 4L is a bit less than a second so if his split was 'staggering', then the others' must have been teetering.

the 2nd & 3rd were both "outpaced" and the winner won easily..the superiorty is quite a lot DO..we aren't talking NH race here,, it is the flat where small margins are a lot...4 lengths is a lot at that level...the difference timewise between average group 1 & 2 isn't a lot on the clock..2 lengths?

all i can tell you is that winner is better than most Guineas winners using sectionals...with that info..you can ignore it and lay ..or believe it and back

i'm happy to say this is a good thing for the guineas IF sectionals do tell us something

 

[Desert Orchid]

I'm not ignoring it, just trying get my head round the overall form.

I've just watched the replay for the first time. Havana Gold was four lengths behind Toronado with 3.5f to run (3 at the 3 pole) and was the same distance behind at the line so he has covered the last 3.5f in more or less the same time as Toronado. Yes, he was outpaced at one point and Toronado wasn't asked the same questions but his time for the last 3.5f must also have been very smart to have run just a fraction of a second (one length) slower. And obviously Toronado was carrying more weight.

Questions:

How do we know that Havana Gold couldn't have run closer for the first 5f?
If he could, could he have still produced the same final split?
Which of the pair will improve more for the race?

I'm not tempted by Toronado for the Guineas at this stage but that's because I reckon he'll be better than the current 11/4 on the day. Dawn Approach will also be a tough nut to crack.

 

[EC1]

if HG had run 4 lengths faster for 5f then he would have been beaten further..as the see saw effect of early v late kicks in

the fact that T took those 4 lengths and still kept going is the key to his superiority..he also carried more weight

the difference between these two horses could be a stone+

 

[Desert Orchid]

if HG had run 4 lengths faster for 5f then he would have been beaten further..as the see saw effect of early v late kicks in

I can see this if the overall time is very fast but if the early split is on the slow side and the overall time is on the slow side then basically the two are running the same speed in the section that matters. Running faster early didn't blunt Toronado's finishing speed so what evidence is there that running alongside and within his comfort zone as Toronado did wouldn't have seen HG finish very close?

The form book comment suggests HG would be suited by a stronger race. This isn't to suggest he could beat Toronado but he can clearly run fast too.

 

[EC1]

I can see this if the overall time is very fast but if the early split is on the slow side and the overall time is on the slow side then basically the two are running the same speed in the section that matters. Running faster early didn't blunt Toronado's finishing speed so what evidence is there that running alongside and within his comfort zone as Toronado did wouldn't have seen HG finish very close?

The form book comment suggests HG would be suited by a stronger race. This isn't to suggest he could beat Toronado but he can clearly run fast too.

but he didn't run alongside..and the more energy used early will tell late..its how it works..

 

[Ardross]

Havana Gold was also given much more vigorous riding than Toronado who was just nudged home .

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've already acknowledged that HG had a harder race and carried less weight. However, where I'm struggling is in accepting that HG simply couldn't have run as fast late just because he ran slower for the first 4f.

As I said, I can see it if the overall time is fast.

Take this scenario:

If I can run 100m in 10s and my mate can do the same and we're running over 400m, I won't beat him if we jog for the first 300 with me jogging 5 metres behind him. If I jog alongside him for the 300 it will be very close.

Why should it be different for horses?

 

[reet hard]

Using the logic that Toronado could have run a faster overall time if his he had run more efficiently i.e. more even pace not slow/fast, the sectional upgrade to the speedfig gives a fig in the 120's. .

I'd question the logic that a horse with his change of gear would be so much better with a more even pace, DJ?

 

[SteveM]

Does that not just mean he's fast over 3f

Indeed... like Camelot last season, very fast over a section of the race and fast enough overall. Like Camelot, Toronado should prove more effective at middle distances. And of course being fast doesn't exclude a horse from also having stamina.

Those who don’t think he’ll stay middle distances (I’m not including Sheikh in this) don’t understand the concept of prepotent influence overriding non-prepotent influence. I remember people telling me that Daylami should revert to sprint trips after he won the French Guineas!

While Toronado will not have bottomless stamina he will prove better at middle distance trips than at a mile.

 

[Bar the Bull]

I understand it perfectly well, Steve.

Somebody disagreeing with you doesn't make them thick.

 

[BennyB]

Comes down to whether you think dosage is a load of old bollocks or not really.

 

[EC1]

I've already acknowledged that HG had a harder race and carried less weight. However, where I'm struggling is in accepting that HG simply couldn't have run as fast late just because he ran slower for the first 4f.

As I said, I can see it if the overall time is fast.

Take this scenario:

If I can run 100m in 10s and my mate can do the same and we're running over 400m, I won't beat him if we jog for the first 300 with me jogging 5 metres behind him. If I jog alongside him for the 300 it will be very close.

Why should it be different for horses?

you are really over complicating what is a simple comparison. I'll go through what i have done

I have got first 5f times and last 3f times for a fair few Craven and Guineas winners.

I then construct a graph plotting points relating to finish time/early time.

you then can benchmark any horse by seeing what it ran the first 5f in..and then looking at the expected time it finishes in..if it runs slower late..than you expect..its not up to the level required..if it runs faster than expected its a good chance of being a guineas winner.

thats it really

i'm not understanding what you are saying about HG..the horse'' from a standing start ...ran 4 length+ slower to the 3f marker than T did..its therefore used less energy and so is able to run the last 3 at the same mph as T..but as the measure here is energy used early and how that effects the last 3f...and not how fast mph they are going at different points..its simply..how fast to 5f..then an expected time to the finish.

its a see saw effect as i've said...if anyone runs any race..if they use x energy up early it will effect what they have left..this is what we are looking at here.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Yes, but surely there is a point at which so little energy is being used in going slow that it doesn't impact upon the final split?

 

[Tanlic]

I reckon EC is on to something here, I think Dawn Approach will find Toranado one very hard horse to beat in the Guineas. He certainly looks a different class to anything DA met at 2 years and if he is correct about the sectional times DA could be in big trouble as he takes way too long to get going IMO.

For me it will all be down to timing and there's no jockey around with a better clock in his head than Hughsie. If he can pull a couple of lengths out of DA between the 2f and 1f marker and repeat those kind of sectional times EC points out Bingo!!!!!!!!! race over Toronado wins.

 

[Bar the Bull]

I am convinced. Next month's coke and hooker fund is on Toronado.

 

[EC1]

Yes, but surely there is a point at which so little energy is being used in going slow that it doesn't impact upon the final split?

I think you are thinking they are going really slow when they aren't,..62.7 may not be even pace but its not pedestrian. Going down to the start is slow...we even see jockeys get off a horse's back if they are held at the start for a period of time..at end of day energy used is used..and will tell on final time. If a horse pulls hard in a race at a slow pace..it effects his final time ability.

I'm fully aware that this analysis might be useless..but i can't really see a better way to use the info tbh. We are comparing like with like in this scenario..and seeing if a horse is above or below the benchmark...since i've been watching it for the last few years..this is by far the best one that has easily beat its expected final time..which is why i think it might be noteworthy..and worth a thread