Toronado

BennyB said:
Comes down to whether you think dosage is a load of old bollocks or not really.
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Indeed.

Count me in the "won't stay the Derby trip" camp.

Clearly he has an excellent chance tomorrow week.

I actually think Toronado's Craven time was better overall than the Topspeed assessment although that does involve me making some heroic assumptions regarding how far ahead of their handicap marks the first three home in the concluding 10f handicap that day were.
 
Tanlic said:
I reckon EC is on to something here
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I've known since he first started sharing his figures but there's a bit of me that wants everything teased out until I have no stone left to turn, if I can mix my metaphors, hence my constant probing.

I'm like the wean who keeps asking why...


Can't remember if I mentioned it earlier but I've backed T for the Derby in the last 48 hours on the strength of EC1's remarks combined with Steve M's dosage analysis. I can see me backing T for the Guineas on the day as I think I might get 4/1. I can also see me backing Havana Gold at 50/1 though because I reckon wherever T finishes, HG will be less than 4 lengths behind. That might place him 10th or it might place him 2nd.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
I understand it perfectly well, Steve.

Somebody disagreeing with you doesn't make them thick.
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That’s not what I mean. It’s not a case of agreeing or disagreeing. But some don’t understand the significance of prepotent influence and give all parts of the pedigree equal input. The trick is to look at those parts that are significant.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've known since he first started sharing his figures but there's a bit of me that wants everything teased out until I have no stone left to turn, if I can mix my metaphors, hence my constant probing.

I'm like the wean who keeps asking why...


Can't remember if I mentioned it earlier but I've backed T for the Derby in the last 48 hours on the strength of EC1's remarks combined with Steve M's dosage analysis. I can see me backing T for the Guineas on the day as I think I might get 4/1. I can also see me backing Havana Gold at 50/1 though because I reckon wherever T finishes, HG will be less than 4 lengths behind. That might place him 10th or it might place him 2nd.
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I’m on Toronado at 16/1 and 10/1 for the Derby and have had a part covering bet at 4/1 for the Guineas to my ante-post mountain on Dawn Approach (who will probably get more than a mile, but probably not 12f).

Not worried about Toronado’s suitability for the Derby in terms of stamina. It’s just whether he is good enough compared to a small handful of others.
 
BennyB said:
Comes down to whether you think dosage is a load of old bollocks or not really.
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It doesn’t actually come down to that Benny. Although Dosage bases emphasis on prepotent influence, the concept of prepotent influence is not exclusive to Dosage, but of general pedigree analysis.
 
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With the weather set fair for quicker ground at the weekend, I can see Toronado having too much speed for Dawn Approach.
Can't see him staying the Derby trip though - based on racecourse performance - which would be a far better guide than DI, imvho.
 
reet hard said:
With the weather set fair for quicker ground at the weekend, I can see Toronado having too much speed for Dawn Approach.
Can't see him staying the Derby trip though - based on racecourse performance - which would be a far better guide than DI, imvho.
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We've gone a different path Reet, but we've got to the same venue!
 
Yes - Dundonnell and Havana Gold 's performances have suggested that Toronado was indeed way below form in the Guineas .
 
With Dundonnell dropping back to 7f (and, apparently, sticking to that trip for the near future), it hardly proves Toronado stays a mile, though.
 
I hope they take a step back and look at the Derby picture. Credible contenders are disappearing like snow off a dyke and there are credible doubts about Dawn Approach's stamina.

We're heading for the worst Derby since Oath's, maybe even worse.

If Toronado is fit and well they should let him take his chance.
 
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Behave yourself, DO. :lol:
The Derby was off the menu immediately after the Guineas (before any 'problems' had time to manifest), and connections clearly saw then what some still have difficulty coming to terms with now.
 
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