Ken Clarke, can't be whipped into voting for them and says he won't be. Nothing you can threaten him with really.
Heidi Allen has voted against them previously on Brexit issues and has been notably critical and vocal since the result
Others who've voted against (and in favour) include Bob Neill, Claire Perry, Anna Soubry, and Antoinette Sandbach
Nicky Morgan also needs to stand up instead of making excuses having allowed herself to be bullied in the past
The problem as I see it is that Cruella de Vil spent 7 years at the Home Office trying to defend her failure to meet immigration targets every quarter. Inevitably she began to frame Brexit through the prism of immigration and this became her all consuming priority. This has had the effect of divorcing what many people regard as the bigger picture, namely the economy, from her thinking, which has started to become obsessive now as she bunkers down. Being a politician she inevitably starts to look for someone, or something else to blame for this. Like any politician they begin their descent towards failure when they start believing their own propaganda. She's no different
I suspect we'll see the UK ultimately adopt a Norway style EEA membership, allowing them to keep a foot in both camps. It leaves them open to allegations of having achieved nothing of course and will also involve continued payments to the European budget. The simple fact however is the UK were always going to have to make these payments for the duration of the current round until 2021, so the continued payments needn't make any material difference.
IIRC, you can withdraw from the EEA on 12 months notice, with nothing like the chains attached to it. In this regard Brexit becomes a two step process.
It's true that EEA membership still protects the freedom of movement, but this is ultimately a function of how you enforce borders. You can send out quite powerful signals that people aren't welcome (Brexit has already done that) and you can still refuse entry on trumped up allegations and security fears (as they're doing in America at the moment). Sure the commission can investigate complaints, and the UK can protest, obstruct, and appeal. No one has ever accused the commission of alacrity though, so this won't be resolved very quickly. I thought they were having issues with both Switzerland and Norway over doing precisely this. Basically you sign a piece of paper, and then do something else in practise (pretty standard European operation to be honest)
Medium term the European Council does need to wake up a little bit to the fact that they're increasingly out of touch with the people's of Europe, who are consistently registering disapproval ratings and concerns which suggest they want them to get on top of immigration. If you look at the polling, the UK is far from being an outlier. In fact its stuck in the middle when it comes to attitudes towards migration. What sets it apart is that we're the only country that's been brave/ stupid enough (delete as applicable) to put it to a referendum. I wouldn't be shocked to see a treaty amendment made in this direction within 5-10 years. If the Council continues to sit in their ivory towers though, they'll continue to play into the hands, and feed the rising right. I should point out of course that the UK doesn't really have an active extreme right wing like we see in France, Holland, Denmark, Hungary, Finland, Sweden, or Poland. Even the AfD are likely to poll about 6% in Germany, and for all the hate directed at the UKIP, they're still a couple of degrees separated from some of Europe's extremes. I see the Finnish government collapsed today incidentally, because of the Finns Party
Picking an off-the-shelf EEA deal also makes it difficult for the European negotiating team to introduce some of their more outlandish demands, due to precedent being established. Custom and precedent can of course stand up in law, although in this case it would be the principle you'd perhaps look to apply, as the EU aren't under any obligation to offer the UK an EEA deal, but to be honest, they'd be extremely churlish not to do so. They might also begin to find it difficult to hold back some of the industries in Europe who will also want to protect their own export market to the UK, if they're seen to be acting unreasonably
Once in the EEA, the UK can then set about trying to cobble together some of our own deals. So far to date, the EU is more notable for the number of FTA deals its failed to conclude. It's often said that the EU tends to negotiate in favour manufacturing (Germany) and agriculture (France) and then trades back services (the UK). A lot of commentators suggest that the UK has never rally done that well out of EU deals for this reason, as they skew in favour of the duopoly. I'd like to see someone quantify this personally, but the UK would get breathing space taking EEA which would her allow to plough her own furrow and trade services in return for manufacturing and agriculture, with the view to making a final decision in a decades time
The loose cannon in all this of course is the Trump man, and longer term, America's slide towards right wing authoritarianism, which probably began in the early 70's. The UK still has a potential role to play here as an Atlantic bridge
Heidi Allen has voted against them previously on Brexit issues and has been notably critical and vocal since the result
Others who've voted against (and in favour) include Bob Neill, Claire Perry, Anna Soubry, and Antoinette Sandbach
Nicky Morgan also needs to stand up instead of making excuses having allowed herself to be bullied in the past
The problem as I see it is that Cruella de Vil spent 7 years at the Home Office trying to defend her failure to meet immigration targets every quarter. Inevitably she began to frame Brexit through the prism of immigration and this became her all consuming priority. This has had the effect of divorcing what many people regard as the bigger picture, namely the economy, from her thinking, which has started to become obsessive now as she bunkers down. Being a politician she inevitably starts to look for someone, or something else to blame for this. Like any politician they begin their descent towards failure when they start believing their own propaganda. She's no different
I suspect we'll see the UK ultimately adopt a Norway style EEA membership, allowing them to keep a foot in both camps. It leaves them open to allegations of having achieved nothing of course and will also involve continued payments to the European budget. The simple fact however is the UK were always going to have to make these payments for the duration of the current round until 2021, so the continued payments needn't make any material difference.
IIRC, you can withdraw from the EEA on 12 months notice, with nothing like the chains attached to it. In this regard Brexit becomes a two step process.
It's true that EEA membership still protects the freedom of movement, but this is ultimately a function of how you enforce borders. You can send out quite powerful signals that people aren't welcome (Brexit has already done that) and you can still refuse entry on trumped up allegations and security fears (as they're doing in America at the moment). Sure the commission can investigate complaints, and the UK can protest, obstruct, and appeal. No one has ever accused the commission of alacrity though, so this won't be resolved very quickly. I thought they were having issues with both Switzerland and Norway over doing precisely this. Basically you sign a piece of paper, and then do something else in practise (pretty standard European operation to be honest)
Medium term the European Council does need to wake up a little bit to the fact that they're increasingly out of touch with the people's of Europe, who are consistently registering disapproval ratings and concerns which suggest they want them to get on top of immigration. If you look at the polling, the UK is far from being an outlier. In fact its stuck in the middle when it comes to attitudes towards migration. What sets it apart is that we're the only country that's been brave/ stupid enough (delete as applicable) to put it to a referendum. I wouldn't be shocked to see a treaty amendment made in this direction within 5-10 years. If the Council continues to sit in their ivory towers though, they'll continue to play into the hands, and feed the rising right. I should point out of course that the UK doesn't really have an active extreme right wing like we see in France, Holland, Denmark, Hungary, Finland, Sweden, or Poland. Even the AfD are likely to poll about 6% in Germany, and for all the hate directed at the UKIP, they're still a couple of degrees separated from some of Europe's extremes. I see the Finnish government collapsed today incidentally, because of the Finns Party
Picking an off-the-shelf EEA deal also makes it difficult for the European negotiating team to introduce some of their more outlandish demands, due to precedent being established. Custom and precedent can of course stand up in law, although in this case it would be the principle you'd perhaps look to apply, as the EU aren't under any obligation to offer the UK an EEA deal, but to be honest, they'd be extremely churlish not to do so. They might also begin to find it difficult to hold back some of the industries in Europe who will also want to protect their own export market to the UK, if they're seen to be acting unreasonably
Once in the EEA, the UK can then set about trying to cobble together some of our own deals. So far to date, the EU is more notable for the number of FTA deals its failed to conclude. It's often said that the EU tends to negotiate in favour manufacturing (Germany) and agriculture (France) and then trades back services (the UK). A lot of commentators suggest that the UK has never rally done that well out of EU deals for this reason, as they skew in favour of the duopoly. I'd like to see someone quantify this personally, but the UK would get breathing space taking EEA which would her allow to plough her own furrow and trade services in return for manufacturing and agriculture, with the view to making a final decision in a decades time
The loose cannon in all this of course is the Trump man, and longer term, America's slide towards right wing authoritarianism, which probably began in the early 70's. The UK still has a potential role to play here as an Atlantic bridge
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