US Presidential election 2016

My understanding is that registration for California might have closed now (or is very damned close to the deadline). Polling organisations will simply ask the question have you registered. If the respondent says no, they'll terminate the interview. California is a closed primary I think. Things become more volatile in open primaries when Democrats who are confident that Hillary is the domination can present as Republicans and vote for the candidate they'd most like to face! I think Wisconsin is open actually, but I'm prepared to put faith in the Marquette Poll which gibes Cruz a commanding lead rather than this one put out by Optimus that ahd Cruz in last place 24 hours earlier. Optimus I believe are the same organisation that did Rubio's polling and told him he'd win 5 of the super Tuesday states, and also rally to take Florida

I'm detecting 2 things in California

1: Californians seem to be genuinely excited at having their voices heard for the first time and there does seem to be enthusiasm there and potentially a high turnout
2: There are strong pockets within the state where both Trump and Cruz are completely unacceptable to the voters

I think there might be an issue WTA in congressional districts so its understanding where these are and how the precincts break that determines the delegate count. The 538 model has probably under estimated the Trump support, as it has done too in New York. He could get back on schedule, but I think we're reaching the stage now where we can say he's hitting his ceiling and that this is something 33-39% in a three horse race. He doesn't seem to be able to pull in the next 5% that he needs, and whilst he thrashes around violently to find something to say to convince them, he's possibly running a greater risk of alienating some of the softer edges of his own core vote. He needs to realise before long that he's coming over as basically not looking very good, not so much for what says, but he's increasingly being exposed on for lack of depth. Basically he doesn't know what he's on about and is trying to campaign on emotional sentiment rather than substance. This limitation is going to put a gap on him regarding the higher information voters who possess an equal if not better knowledge than Trump. He simply can't win their confidence when they see someone who doesn't understand the issues and is so clearly ignorant of them. Nor is he really showing the appetite and learn
 
The market is really spooked with Trump's latest antics. Here are the current probabilities based on the last priced matched on Betfair.com

Donald Trump 58.82%

Ted Cruz 17.54%

John Kasich 10.42%

Paul Ryan 3.57%

Marco Rubio 1%

Jeb Bush 0.38%

Mitt Romney 0.37%

Here's the intriguing part. This book only adds up to 91.81% so Betfair currently makes it 8.2% that a candidate not on this list will win. This is quite unprecedented this late in a race.

Who's missing off the list?
 
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New Quinnipac poll gives him a 36pt lead in New York. Even 56% of the vote the chances are he'll sweep the congressional districts with the possible exception of Manhattan

In other news, he's now decided that allowing Saudi Arabia to build nuclear weapons might be a good idea - I mean what could possibly go wrong? It's also another complete 180 degree reversal of what he was saying at the time of SC primary when he accused them of being the biggest sponsors of global terrorism and called for the 28 pages of the 9/11 report which is currently redacted in order to protect Saudi to be published

He's also seemingly said that he won't rule out a nuclear strike against Europe (I'm not convinced he did say it actually) but that seems to be how American's are interpreting it
 
New PPP poll for wisconsin

PPP were the most accurate pollster in 2012 for the state

Cruz - 37
Trump - 36
Kasich - 17
Undecided - 9

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/WisconsinPrimaryPoll33116.pdf

Good news for Cruz I'd have thought. The pattern to date has been that Trump has needed leads of about 7pts at the 5 day stage to covert into victories. Kasich appears to have been the victim in the classic three party squeeze. Also more of his supporters are indicating a preference for Cruz at 49/41 so there might be a cushion there. Trumps only hope is that those who've already decided on voting tactically for Cruz might have taken the decision and are already part of the Cruz count, whereas the 41% Trumps leaners could be softer. That is to say those 49% who nominate Cruz as their second choice might be doing so in good faith, but they have no intention of switching. They're just answering a hypothetical question. Otherwise they're committed to their candidate

Undecideds tend to break against Trump, which kind of makes sense, as if you're still undecided about him by now its difficult to imagine you can be positive

There's an outside possibility that Democrats might switch into the vote? IIRC Wisconsin is an open primary, but I'm far from convinced who they regard as the most beatable candidate. They'd probably be happy for it to go to the convention and an almighty bloodbath, so could start voting Cruz now, where in the earlier rounds those who were mischievously inclined to do so, were felt to be voting for Trump. I suspect Cruz could end up with 44% in the end

I have to say though, I really don't know what's wrong with the American voter? Are they really this volatile and disorientated, or are their polling companies basically very, very poor? This is the third poll in a week now with some alarming spreads on them
 
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Just returning to the VP market

I'm told Kasich ran a Cruz attack ad today in Wisconsin calling him lyin' Ted
 
Trump is 8/11 now. It's time to talk about the buy back price on Trump. The market is scared, it's a bubble.
 
There's a new Optimus poll out later on another large sample with a small MoR that has the following results

Trump 29%
Kasich 28%
Cruz 25%

Either the people of Wisconsin are having a laugh, or they suffer from some kind of serious schizophrenic problem

My own suspicion is that Optimus are using some highly questionable methodolgy as I'm struggling to believe 18% are undecided. I suspect they're clearing out to a high degree of definite participation, and definite intention to support a candidate

At this stage I'd put more faith in Marquette and PPP who are showing Cruz with a comfortable lead

And Fox News have one out now that is

Cruz 42%
Trump 32%
Kasich 19%

This is just mental.
 
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Anyone who likes value should take some 10/3 Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination with Boulesports. He could easily be favourite in a weeks time.
 
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I think the sentiment is fine, not sure about the timing

The more I try and find out about these contested conventions the more it makes sense (I confess it never entered by head until about March - I just assumed person with most votes would win)

The GOP is already taking a chance denying Trump the nomination if he wins a plurality. It's going to seriously pish off the nationalists and half the tea party, but that's a calculated risk they'll have to take to protect the party and their down ticket prospects. If they deny Cruz as well, and go for the 'white knight', (Romney or Ryan) they pish off the other half of the tea party, evangelicals, and deep conservatives too. They won't have a party left. The winner has to come from Cruz or Trump. kasich is just so far behind it's just not defendable

I do wonder if we might not see a bit of re-run of Iowa and New Hampshire though?

Cruz takes Wisconsin say, two weeks later Trump takes New York and increases his delegate lead. Cruz basically wrote off his chances in New York when he called out their principles and integrity by suggesting that Trump was the embodiment of greed which he foolishly described as "New York values". His vote could migrate to Kasich in an attempt to hold Trump below 50%, but that just reduces his own delegate count further. It's difficult to think that Kasich can defeat Trump in New York, but then you assume that the market has already discounted a Trump victory in its pricing.

A week later we enter a swing of north east states which so far Trump has bossed. This might be the chance to place the bet, either before if you think Trump will under perform, or afterwards if you think he'll carry them

You'd expect Trump to win Conneticuit, Rhode Island and Delaware
Pennsylvania could be close and Kasich looks competitive there. #NeverTrump could make a stand and defeat Trump but with whom? Cruz is hardly a good fit for the state. Thye'll need to make a decision. I expect Kasich to get squeezed though
Maryland is probably the bell weather. Its quite a white collar state, and not natural Trump territory. It could be vulnerable, but so far Trumps be leading with the sort of margins he's converted in less favourable areas. It would need a concerted effort to deny him, but its possible

One of the polls in Wisconsin did survey the second preference choices and Kasich supporters went to Cruz 49/41. This is much tighter than the national picture which is closer to 2:1. Cruz isn't a great fit for these N/E states. There could be a sort of sentiment equally that amounts 'stop Cruz'. I'm not completely convinced that quite a lot of the Kasich voters in the N/E if they're forced to choose between Trump and Cruz, wouldn't actually choose Trump. Cruz is a pretty odious proposition himself. Its only a hunch, but if they're only going 49/41 in Wisconsin, what will they do in Pennyslvania or Maryland?

Having said that, I don't disagree that Cruz is value, the question I'm posing is will he bigger after April 26th? I can see you can go short about him for Tuesday, as he could be 7/4 on Wednesday, but he might be 4/1 or 9/2 yet at the end of the month if Trump comes out of the N/E swing in shape
 
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A new ARG poll for Wisconsin has just come out that gives Trump 42% and a 10pt lead over Cruz

Now the American Research Group have been one of the most eccentric pollsters throughout the campaign. I'm strongly inclined to disregard it, but if it causes an adjustment in the markets take advantage would be my advice

In other polls, Trump has enjoyed something of a bounce in Pennsylvania. The Kasich bubble has burst a bit there as voters are perhaps accepting that in the event of two horse race they might more naturally align with #nevercruz

The greatest damage to Trump's bad week however could be California where he's surrendered a decent lead to a small one that would be considered a statistical tie. He'd have time to get this back, but he seemed to be accepting on Sunday that he's made some mistakes, saying that there were thing she did which with hindsight he wouldn't do now. He seemed to be saying that he'd done a deal with hismelf to clean his act up and perhaps make an effort to at least learn facts and familiarise himself with the arguments rather than simply shooting off his own opinions from the hip (which for the most part of showcased a staggering level of ignorance in all sorts of areas)
 
I'm just doing some reading on it (not sure yet)

There's two polls out, Emerson are +5 Cruz, and ARG are +10 Trump (honestly you'd never get these sorts of violent swings in Europe). .

Independents can vote in the Rep primary, but Dems can't. Fox News did a poll a few days ago which suggested that independents favoured Trump 37/26, but they were no more inclined to vote in the GOP primary than they were the Dem race

Emerson did one that suggested registered Republicans will makes up 57% of the primary and Independents 37% (don't ask who the other 6% are, I don't know!)
 
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No

In truth I don't fully understand the state delegate allocation systems, how the congressional districts, what's happening with this Louisiana situation, as well as those sent to Cleveland unbound (120 odd). I'm hearing stories about unbinding delegates and possible rule changes and all sorts of scenarios.

I'll have another go it at it later and see what figure I come up with, as it occurs to me that I over estaimated Kasich out west, and now believe his figure will crater as the voters will decide its a 2 horse race even if Kasich doesn't

I've never gotten Trump to 1237 yet on this predictor tool though, but have a feeling it might have something to do with how delegates are calculated within its algorithm

I couldn't discount the possibility that he gets near though and is still able to swing over enough unbound delegates on the floor. The crucial period will be between the final primary and Cleveland
 
I've been playing around with different scenarios and an interesting one does emerge which is possible I'd have said, and this involves Kasich dropping out after Indiana by which time I think he will have overtaken Rubio for third. By then he could well be running out of money, and with the states upcoming wouldn't be in play in any

His vote has polled a preference for Cruz nationally in a ratio of about 2:1. This ratio won't be so strong in the immediate April states though, so I'd expect him to see it through until May 3rd at the earliest. The GOP could then take the view that they'll turn the election into a three states crap shoot down the west coast of Trump versus Cruz

Turning to Wisconsin, I'm oddly conflicted by a lot of things

I'm assured that upstate its red neck without the race tensions, (think Green Bay Packers). This ought to suit Trump. Then there's the built up areas of more conservative leaning Milwaukee (think Happy Days) - I told you this was scientific! Madison probably has Kasich appeal I'd have thought

My own suspicion is that Wisconsin trends more Minnesota than Michigan however. Milwaukee is more Minneapolis than Detroit. Trump could only manage 37% in Michigan and 38% in Illinois, and possibly had that fluffed a little bit by the Chicago protests. He's going into Wisconsin with a much less helpful week behind him. OK, Rubio is out now, but he polled badly in Michigan (he won Minnesota in a caucus remember). Rubio can probably only serve about 10% of his 20% max to Trump anyway, so is only worth 2% tops provided he can replicate his Michigan vote in what is a less helpful state

Kasich's vote has remained pretty stubbon at about 18-20% with one notable outlier that gave him the lead.

I think Trump will poll 37% again, the more gains from Rubio off set by Wisconsin being less receptive than Michigan
Kasich will get 19%
Which leaves Cruz winning with 44%
 
can you get Trump to 1,237?
Click to expand...

The take out from Wisconsin was really the story of the swing from Kasich to Cruz. I was also slightly amused to hear the members of the commentariat who a month ago were calling this for Trump now saying how the state was never natural Trump territory etc OK, it did trend more Minnesota than Michigan in the end, but Trump did enjoy a healthy lead here not so long ago too. Basically he blew not through bombast, but through something else that's becoming more and more apparent, and that involves the fact he's seemingly not very knowledgable. In fact stupid is a word you're hearing more and more. So as we go into April I expect to see a couple of things happening this month and to some extent its already started

Calls for Kasich to drop out will intensify. It's difficult to know what he's thinking. I've read and heard at least half dozen quite plausible explanations as to why he's staying in. The chances are its a combination of all of them. I can't see him dropping out before he overtakes Rubio for third place though. If he really is eyeing up 2020 and trying to get name recognition, then finishing third is better than fourth. It also makes me inclined to think he'll want to be on the ballot in California too, but what if his name starts to become synonymous with a loser, a spoiler, or a joke? There reaches a point where he no longer enhances his standing if he isn't careful. I've also read (though don't know if this is true) that if he drops out, some local Ohio GOP rule automatically transfers his delegates to Trump? I'm probably persuaded by the argument however that he genuinely believes he's the best candidate, and at a brokered convention the polls say that 37% of republicans won't vote for Trump, 33% won't vote for Cruz, and yet Kasich would beat Hillary Clinton. What would you do on a floor vote if these scenrios were given to you?

Trump himself has been told by both Melania and Ivanka to start acting more Presidential. He's confirmed this, and pretty well telegraphed a change of approach which his spinners are now calling it "campaign maturation". He'd also be well advised to spend a little bit of time quoting facts and figures to back up some of his flakey policies instead spending the first quarter of his stump speech continually rattling off opinion poll ratings and reassuring his crowds how marvellous he is and how the polls prove it. He's facing an increasing issue concerning substance and the impression that he's making up policy as he goes along with nothing behind it other than his own ignorant and poorly formed opinions

Cruz is also trying to dial back his own religious extremism now as the battle heads to the north east, and the west coast after that. To some extent Trump's oafishness and Cruz's uber-religious conservatism have probably been milked for what they're worth now. Both candidates are the choice of whoever it is that is turned on by this messaging now, so they need to try and squeeze a bit from other avenues

RCP have updated their delegate predictor tool and perhaps refined it a bit to make concessions to the role played by congressional districts, so with a heavy heart I thought I'd have another go at it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/the_gop_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.html

So far as I can establish there are about 120 unbound delegates, and a general consenus that Trump can probably count on about 30 of these between the final primary and the conference

I expect New York to go for Trump. The GOP isn't massively well organised in the state. The question is can they keep him below 50%? I suspect that with his new image, and a bit of effort he'll hold himself above this threshold as Cruz's "New York values" comment is used against him by both Trump and Kasich. I'm going 54/28/18, so thats Trump 814 going into the five states on April 26th

I expect Trump to win Connecticuit too with a bit to spare. It should trend like Massacheusets where he got 49% in a bigger field, so I'm going 53/29/18. We know nothing about Delaware but again it should be a Trump win, but tighter, 44/40/16

Maryland is where I think Trump will encounter his greatest threat from Cruz, albeit I think he can only do so if Kasich's vote collapses. It's going to be interesting, as I think it could have implications for both candidates. As we get nearer to polling day we could see a whole load of Kasich supporters accepting that the game is up, and the only way they can get their man to the gate is to vote for Cruz. There is a temptation to 'crowd follow', and say Maryland will go Trump, but he's in the low 30's there, which is the sort of territory that he's gotten turned over on. Virginia nearly went for Rubio, and DC did. I'm going to go for a shock here as the kasich vote collapses and switches into Cruz 37/41/22 (I should say that in order to cove rmy ass, the same thing could happen, and the Cruz vote collapses to put Kasich in) so far to date though the evidence does seem to suggest that its a Kasich to Cruz phenomenon, but there is definitely something very uncomfortable about suggetsing that Cruz could win a state where I'm seriously struggling to believe he's anything other than heavily disliked. I don't expect the Cruz vote to return the favour in Pennsylvania though and I think we could see a Michigan/ Illinois outcome here 37/33/30. Finally I expect Trump to carry Rhode Island with something like 45/41/14, as Cruz's ground game nearly pays off

So by the time we finish April we have Trump 913, Cruz 588, Kasich 182

The take out from this will become a bit vicious now I think with fire directed by both (and increasingly the public) at John Kasich. He himself has gone past Rubio now and locked up third. On May 3rd Indiana votes, a state about which we know little. Kasich supporters I suspect will have been lending reluctant support to Cruz, but could find themselves tempted to stop doing so given that Cruz supporters haven't gone to Kasich. Trump could find himself able to explot this in a state that's a bit weird in the upper mid west. I suspect Indiana which can do strange things, might go a bit like Illinois and have given it 40/36/24

So this leaves a delegate count of Trump 955, Cruz 597, Kasich 188

If Kasich is going to suspend, this will be his first opportunity I reckon. The next two states come 2 days later and he has no prospect of adding anything from Nebraska or West Virginia. Both Cruz and Trump should win with 50%+. I'll go 27, 61, 12 for Nebraska and 59, 25, 16

New delegate count of Trump 975, Cruz 642 and Kasich 193

By now the big debate will be whether Kasich continues. I've got a feeling he's doing his reputation harm by now. Quite who benefits most from him suspending however is far from clear. This is already being debated inconclusively. His support is expected to go to Cruz in a ratio of 2:1, yet this 1 is often enough to push Trump over 50% and trigger WTA allocations by congressional districts in a lot of states

I think the voters will make a decision now to turn this into a two horse race even if Kasich doesn't drop. I expect him to start hitting single figures from now on in. Oregon I expect to surprise a few and go Cruz. We know nothing about it really, but there seems to be aview that Trump has the advantage on the west coast?. The only poll that exists was before Trump entered the race, but it had Huckerbee leading. I'm going 33/59/8. Washington by contrast I think could be another Wisconsin; a medium sized swing state. I'll say that this time Trump can sneak it 47/44/9

New delagate count of Trump 1005, Cruz 679, Kasich 198

So into June and California. I think the Trump leaning Kasich supporters will migrate last, but they'll be on board by now. 50/45/5. Montana will be a Cruz blow out 28/68/4. Trump will walk New Jersey by now as Kasich has all but given up 58/37/5, as I expect there to be something of a #nevercruz thing going a bit too. South Dakota will be safe Cruz territory with a bit of a small showing for Kasich, 27/64/9. So finally New Mexico finishes off, and I actually expect Trump to get a surprise victory here given that the latino population won't be registered Republicans. It won't be on the same scale as Arizona, but they face similar problems 44/ 43/ 3

Final score
Trump 1162, Cruz 819, Kasich 20

With Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota unbound (I think - not sure if I've got these right but we can safely assume they're all leaning Cruz), along with Virgins and Somoa etc

Trump with a bit of juggling might be able to wangle his way to 1200 if he can get about 35 of the unbound on board, but he's coming up short I reckon by about 40 delegates when he marches into Cleveland

In the final analysis Wisconsin will turn out to be crucial. As might the silly caucuses he lost in Maine and Alaska. Remember I've given Maryland to Cruz which is a highly questionable selection, but have also given Washington back to Trump as things might have settled down by then into a two horse race with Kasich's Trump leaners having abandoned him

I might reset it to post Nebraska/ West Virginia, or pre Indiana and see how Kasich pulling out effects things as a little exercise later
 
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Right, I've decided to invoke my wiggle room and cover your ass prediction regarding Maryland. The more I look at this, the unavoidable conclusion is that Kasich has to be the threat to Trump, not Cruz. I don't expect enough Cruz voters to vote tactically though, so I'm now thinking Trump will take it, even though he would be vulnerable to a co-ordinated tactical vote there.

I'm not predicting Trump 928, Cruz 559, Kasich 196 by the time they finish off on April 26th. I am increasingly thinking I've over estimated Cruz in the N/E though, but part of that involved late deciders in the last 48 hours reluctantly swinging in behind him. I'm also not convinced that the delegate predictor tool is allocating Trump's support in New York accurately either. It only gave 56 delegates, and I'm sure he'll beat 50% WTA threshold in many more districts than that. I expect him to be over 70, and am therefore tempted to put my own correction in and say Trump 948, Cruz 539, Kasich 196

The key vote that will decide the outcome could easily be Indiana. This one is slipping below the radar. Trump likely comes in with momentum, but Cruz might have started earlier with a better ground game. I now expect Kasich to get squeezed as voters realise the significance of the primary and turn it into a two horse race. The north of the state will go Trump, the south will go Cruz, which leaves the Indianapolis suburbs which are quite conservative to decide the outcome. Contrary to what I suggested earlier, I now expect Kasich to get badly squeezed up and possibly poll as low as single figures. Cruz will also find himself under the microscope more for some of his zany ideas. I;m going try Cruz 48, Trump 42, and Kasich 10, for a result of Trump 940, Cruz 601, Kasich 196

If I then leave all the other results unaltered as originally guessed at Trump 1167, Cruz 774, Kasich 215 (with the New York adjustment in). On this model there are 130 delegates unallocated, of whom about 30% could probably go to Trump (mostly from Pennsylvania). This gives him 1206

If he wins Indiana though instead of Cruz, I've got him at a revised figure of 1197 now. As it happens 1236 would be his new projected total if he secures 30% of the unallocated delegates

So the keys are

1: The number of New York districts he gets at 50%+ WTA
2: Indiana
3: Washington
4: The number of California districts he gets WTA
5: The number of unallocated delegates he cans ecure before the convention

Failing to win Indiana stops him. It could come down to the conservative suburbs around Indianapolis
 
Well with New York approaching its largely escaped folks that the Colorado stitch up took place last week with all 37 delegates being assigned to Cruz

It's remarkable in many respects. Trump has often used his success in business as a campaigning point, as indeed he has the idea that he hires the best and delegates. His performance in Colorado suggests he's lacking in both when it comes to translating this to politics

In September Roger Stone walked off Trumps team complaining that the doesn't listen. All he does is tell everyone what he thinks, what he wants, and then tells them do it (Trumps definition of delegation). Stone was stressing the importance of organising a 'ground game' and playing the delegate maths. Trump was having none of it. Instead he set his own strategy which basically involved putting his own personality at the front and then playing the media platforms. Despite being warned numerous times about the dangers of not putting a ground game in place, he simply ignored this. When Stone left, he was replaced with Cory Lewandowski whose strategy was to "let Trump be Trump" , which I'm broadly inclined to interpret as 'Trump will do whatever he wants anyway, so there's no point trying to advise him otherwise'

There cab be little doubt that Trump has left at least 2 caucus states (Alaska and Maine) and quite probably Iowa on the table through lack of organisation. Indeed after he lost Iowa he actually said

"I think we could've used a better ground game, a term I wasn't even familiar with."

This is a quite remarkable admission. I've never run for the POTUS either, but even I'm familiar with the term. And certainly if someone with Roger Stone's experience is telling you to tighten up in this area, a good listener would do just that and make the resources available. We got another flash of it in Colorado

On Saturday, Trump backers passed out flyers at the convention site with official campaign slate of 13 delegates and 13 alternates accompanied by their three-digit number position on the 600-plus person ballot. Seven of the names, however, directed people to the wrong number and one delegate's name was misspelled. Other candidates did not have errors on their slates. In one case, an erroneous number corresponded with a Cruz supporter. A second flyer handed out by the Trump campaign contained four mismatched names and numbers.

Trump's organisation on the ground is an absolute shambles, and he only has himself to blame for being so autocratic. As ever Trump apologists are trying to spin this as a master stroke though. He's now lost all 37 delegates, and whereas he was always going to lose Colorado, he should still have been able to scrape a few delegates together. Anyway, the way this was handled does have a whiff about it, and its as if the GOP have given up trying to even conceal that they're stitching it up now. It could be a touch of genius is so much as it could start to frame a narrative that generates sympathy for Trump, or justifies a later saboteur action. If the GOP really do succeed in driving a wave of national sympathy towards someone as undeserving as Donald Trump though, then they really will have surpassed themselves in the ineptitude stakes

My own suspicion is that Trump is increasingly 'lucky'. I think he's completely screwed this side of the campaign up, and done so big style, however, he might get away with it yet, and might emerge as the victim being ganged up on by an evil party machinary controlled by shadowy donors and puppet masters. If this happens he'll doubtless try and claim credit for a calculated decision, but I just think that the evidence points to **** up in this case, and an application of laws of unintended consequences
 
A whole raft of new polling and not surprisingly a fair degree focused on New York where orange face continues to boss the show with leads ranging from 26pts to 43pts and breaking the 50% threshold in all of them. Using a 20% trimmed mean we get Trump 54, Kasich 21, Cruz 19

The first poll from Conneticuit since has November has finally been taken and its not dissimilar with Trump 50, Kasich 26, Cruz 17

Maryland continues to perplex me though, and its one I'm struggling with. I've got a hunch that this could become a lot more important than is generally being realised. It's a state when Trump seems vulnerable and one I thought he'd hit high 30's in, which is where he was in Wisconsin. However, I've got a feeling that Kasich supporters are more inclined to defect to Cruz in a bid to stop Trump, than Cruz supporters are prepared to return the favour. Initially I said I thought Cruz could take this in the last 48 hours on a tactical vote, but it was also pointed out to me that this would like mean that something in the region 38-40% of voters minimum would need to support him. This doesn't chime right. There will be Kasich voters who would make Trump the second choice anyway

A poll last week had Trump 34, Cruz 25, Kasich 18,

Yesterday's poll has Trump 41, Kasich 31, Cruz 22

So long as no clear challenger emerges this helps Trump, and my own guess of watching these kind of things over the years is that acrimony usually breaks out between the rival camps as one accuses the other of sabotage and not working within the spirit of a co-ordinated 'stop' campaign. The odd thing about this poll is that the swing is from Kasich to Trump though, which tends to make me think one of the polls is wrong. I'm inclined to think its the Baltimore university poll that has Trump 34. In this case the RCP average is probably nearest to where the current mood of Maryland sits; Trump 37, Kasich 24, Cruz 23

Its going to require the Kasich campaign to drop below 10% though for Cruz to win this, as not all defectors will go to him. Trump should still win Maryland, but it might be whole lot closer than we realise. A very similar dynamic is emerging in Pennsylvania albeit Trump has a bigger base there which insulates him much more from a successful joint enterprise

Trump appears to have toned down his approach this last week, and Cruz appears to be dialling back on his religious zeal too. Cruz will need to crank that up for the critical state of Indiana, but in doing so he risks undoing the work with California waiting down the track
 
I understood he was making an announcement, but as is usually the case with these things, he's trailed it before he speaks. It's difficult to build up towards announcement with all the expectation if all you're going to say is "I'm out" so I suppose he's had to let it be known that this is what he's doing. The most he might do is leave some wriggle room under different scenarios called Trump, but this would only add to the fog I'd have thought
 
icebreaker said:
Has Paul Ryan ruled himself out of a GOP presidential nomination conclusively?
Click to expand...

When he got the big donor to help keep the Republican majority intact in the house it was almost impossible for him accept the nomination. If he can keep it together for 4 years he's the front runner for 2020.
 
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