US Presidential election 2016

Latest numbers from Pennsylvania: Trump 44 - Cruz - 28 - Kasich 23

That would be a superb result for the Donald, and could allow him to run the table in a state he can't really have been banking on. So long as he holds his base he'll be OK, albeit if the Kasich vote collapses in the final days he'll lose delegates to Cruz but still take the state bound ones, plus his districts

In other news, the candidates did a town hall meet the families type thing this week. The Kasich's came across as reasonably ordinary. The Cruz's came across as something out of Twin Peaks, with the children in particular being singled out as having been very heavily rehearsed, and not a little bit sinister. Heidi Cruz was the best performer of the group. The Trumps however had the best showing. All of them came across very well, with Ivanka stealing the show hands down making a huge impression. I've heard the opinion before that she's regarded as the smartest and nicest of the lot (Donalds alleghed favourite) and she seems to wowed the audience

Florida has also dropped charges agaisnt Corey Lewandowski which has to be seen as a vindication of Trump's decision to back his manager, and especially as Cruz and Kasich were saying they'd have sacked him on the spot. Basically the video pretty well destroyed Michelle Fields allegation that she was grabbed and nearly thrown to the ground.

Trump's actually having a good time of things at the moment as Cruz can't escape the New York values quote, and a new poll out this evening has his national support at its mid February levels

The sleeper in the pack though is Indiana, Kasich and Cruz are already working it whilst Trump is sewing up the N/E. Trump's clearly hoping to roll in there late with momentum, whereas they're hoping the preparatory groundwork will pay off. This one is too close to call I'd have said, but my instinct is leaning towards Cruz at the moment
 
This is quite good. I should say Nate Silver has been predicting the demise of Trump ever since July, but this seems like one of the better efforts to decode the vaguaries of what's going on state by state. It's the big problem with this state by state delegator predictor that RCP have. If you set that according to the latest NY data it only gives Trump 47 delegates, where its widely believed he'll top 80 because of how the CD's are distributed

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/
 
Warbler said:
This is quite good. I should say Nate Silver has been predicting the demise of Trump ever since July, but this seems like one of the better efforts to decode the vaguaries of what's going on state by state. It's the big problem with this state by state delegator predictor that RCP have. If you set that according to the latest NY data it only gives Trump 47 delegates, where its widely believed he'll top 80 because of how the CD's are distributed

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/
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He's not covered himself in glory has he? My prediction of the market going back towards trump this month is taking shape. The 11/10 has turned into 1.77.
 
A big problem that his polls plus model created for him is that it was heavily weighted on endorsements. These correlate with results sure, but there has to be an issue as to whether an endorsement drives a result, or whether an emerging picture results in the endorsement. In statistical jargon; 'cause and effect'. Another issue is that Nate number crunches, which is great at one level, and it will look after you more times that it fails you, but in Trump you're dealing with an emotive candidate (as you are to a lesser extent Cruz), and it becomes very difficult to quantify these sorts

The last week has been pretty good for Trump. He's been stung in both Colorado and now Wyoming with the allocation of delegates, and this might work out yet (good luck is becoming a feature of his campaign). The political apparatchik knows that he's been out manouevered through lack of organisation and failure to take advice and build a ground game back in September. These high information voters however are the minority. The majority of voters see backroom deals being struck and no democratic process that they would recognise, at play. In reality Trump was only ever likely to gain little more than 8 delegates from both states, but he failed to get a single one. He might now pick up more sympathy votes (how the GOP have turned him into an object of national sympathy is beyond comprehension).

Florida dropping the battery charges against Lewandowski has also played out well for him when both Cruz and Kasich said they'd have sacked him on the spot.

There are a string of polls out these evening which show him consolidating

New York - Trump 54, Cruz 21, Kasich 19
Pennsylvania - Trump 46, Cruz 26, Kasich 23
California - Trump 49, Cruz 31, Kasich 16 (could be massively significant if this is the start of a trend)

New York and Connecticuit are very strong. We've seen nothing from Rhode Island or Delaware but would assume they're similar.

Pennsylvania was the place where he was expected to come under greatest pressure, but if anything he's pulling away. Kasich has struggled to get going there, and now seems to be shifting into Indiana. It seems to indicate that if the media lift the hammer for just a week, Trump can stick 3-5% on his poll ratings pretty quickly by virtue of not attracting negative coverage. No other candidate can do this. It possibly suggests that there are a whole lot more Trump leaning prospects who don't require much of a reason to vote for him than people have hitherto acknowledged, as the consensus seems to be that he's a marmite candidate

I still think there's a chink of vulnerability in Maryland, but he's closing that down too. The most recent poll carried out gave him his highest lead, and again its Kasich who is failing to make ground.

As thing stand, Trump looks like winning New York, as well as the five 'eastern Tuesday states'. On the 27th he could be looking re-energised, and Kasich in particular could look badly damaged. Kasich is also running out of money. He'll make a stand in Indiana, and logic says he'll continue into Washington and California, but I wouldn't completely bank on it once he overtakes Rubio. He might decide that his honour has been settled and third place sets him up for 2020, especially if he starts drawing negatives for muddying the water. Having said that, he's stepped in so deep now, he might as well go o'er

Indiana becomes critical. April 27th might very well be 'peak Trump', but then the word momentum comes into play. As things stand, it looks like it could easily perform in a way similar to Wisconsin. The big difference that the anti Trumpsters might be overlooking though is that Trump lost a lead in Wisconsin on the back of about 10 dreadful days of negative media coverage and his own policy gaffs. This need not happen this time round. I suspect that Indiana might trend nearer to Illinois unless Trump cuts his own throat again. I can certianly see the logic in trading against Trump in the aftermath of eastern Tuesday, but I wouldn't necessarily share the consensus at this stage that he's going to lose Indiana. I suspect it's nearer to a three way fight and we could easily see Kasich and Cruz laying into each other soon

Another thing that Nate and his panel of experts did when they predicted their results, is they seemed to take it state by state as if the vote was next week. As votes come in though the ladnscape shifts. This is what I tried to do, and it led to my predictions featuring a Kasich meltdown by the time the circus swung into the western states. I had Kasich in single figures. I'm sure my approach of trying to cascade the impacts of result onto each other is the right of going, but whether or not I can do it is completely different, and it does involve a whole load of guess work based on hunches. The only things we know is that Kasich will be all but out of cash, and that he can't materially affect the outcome. These are classic ingredients for term end voters to conclude there's no reason to vote for him in a primary and cast for one of the other two instead. Basically a vote for Kasich, is a vote for a convention, and if you're an anti Trump voter you might have well cast that vote to strengthen Cruz

The other thing that holds my predictions down badly is the RCP delegate tool I've used. I can see straight away that's its doing Trump out of about 40 delegates in New York, and is penalising him California too because of the way the algorithm thats driving is working. I still think he's probably falling just short of the 1237, but it could be very tight
 
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AliGupter said:
60%, wow.
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This kind of highlights one of the problems we face trying to make forecasts using the RCP delegate predictor. If you put last nights results into their calculator it translates 60% into 49 delegates. Unless we're prepared to drill down into counties and specific state rules (and I'm not not) then it becomes complete guess work when you could even get the percentage of the vote right, but be 40% off in the delegate conversion
 
SlimChance said:
Taking 1/2 Trump now. Cruz is drawing dead for the rest of the month.
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Undoubtedly there's very little for him left in April. His New York values comment probably isn't finished with either. That should reverberate in Connecticuit and New Jersey yet. The only place in the N/E that a co-ordinated never Trump campaign might get him under pressure is Maryland, but it doesn't look like happening so long as Trump can hold a 40% position, which he is doing. The big surprise has been Pennsylvania where he's exceeding predictions. This could have significance for the general yet given its sensitivity. Although Trump has won states in the upper mid west, he hasn't really done so by the sorts of margins we expected. Both Illinois and Michigan were high 30's. Ohio was obviously subjected to a Kasich factor, but he lost Wisconsin. If Pennsylvania turns in something close to 50%, it will be interesting to see how Hillary's free trade message plays out against Bernie's protectionism

Perhaps of greater significance is the role in the Trump campaign increasingly being played by Paul Manafort, who was hired about 3 weeks. Manafort is much more establishment and traditional rather than the maverick Lewandowksi, whose campaign experience was largely limited to a losing run in New Hampshire. We're possibly seeing signs of it already as some of Trump's childish antics haven't been on display in the last week. Lewandowski ran a campaign of 'let Trump, be Trump', which I tended to interpret as Trump doesn't take advice until such time as something demonstrably blows up in his face, as the whole period around Wisconsin did, and more latterly the convention decisions of Colorado and Wyoming. Even then he tends to blame someone else, and Lewandowski seems to be losing influence in the inner core now. In truth, Lewandowski's campaign has probably taken Trump as far as it can. If Trump is in receipt of new advice though and is acting on it, he becomes more formidable.

I've just got this theory that there about 5%-7% of the GOP electorate who might be described as 'nearly Trump' but have so far been put off crossing over because of the media barrage, allied to the gaffs. Trump can complain with some vindication about the negative media (and my God he does!) but he also benefits from it massively too. Also the media doesn't really make things up, he is saying stupid things, and he does leave more than just the impression that he doesn't actually know what he's talking about.

It strikes me that simply not making mistakes, and dialing back some of this more inflammatory rhetoric (that's already out there - no need to reinforce it) has brought this over and we're seeing poll ratings that were high 30's climbing to mid 40's in the space of about 10 days. If Trump can win over some of these negatives he can take Indiana yet, which really does set him up. He's probably the only candidate who can add 5% to his vote by doing and saying less

I'm tempted to have a dig at Indiana later, as every keeps saying he's going to lose there, and if he does, his path to 1237 looks hazardous if not quite blocked, but I'm less sure. I reckon it could be 50/50, but there simply isn't a poll to go on, so its pure geographic extrapolation and which way we think the wind is blowing
 
Tuesday is the next big night and all things look to be on track for the Donald

We've had our first poll from Delaware and he's killing it 55%. Game over, clean sweep
Rhode Island is 38% with Kasich back on 25% and Cruz 14%. It's proportional so of less consequence
He's held his lead in Maryland, and Kasich is again running Cruz for a close 2nd. Cruz hasn't got above 30% so far there, and Trump hasn't dipped below 33%. The #NeverTrump coalition simply hasn't happened
Connecticuit has Trump hovering on the 50% WTA threshold
I've left Pennsylvania for last as this was the state they felt Cruz was most likely to get some traction in. Trump's been pulling away though in the last week. His spread has been 40-49% , whereas Cruz's highest has been 28%.

Provided he's done the unbound delegate slate properly, he could be looking at sticking 100 delegates on the ledger after Tuesday

I think there could be a pointer in Pennsylvania that's worth looking for though. Trump is exceeding his expectations as the post Colorado sympathy wave rolls, and he's tried to dial back his behaviour. It does seemingly suggest that there is indeed about 5-7% in the N/E at least who could be described as 'nearly Trump'. Admittedly these are Republicans, but they don't seem to require much persuasion. It was always felt that Trump's anti free trade stance and protectionism could play out well here. I think he's over-performing Pennsylvania. Remember Bernie Sanders is on a similar ticket and took Michigan against expectations. I expect Clinton to sweep the other side, but it might be interesting to see how Pittsburg votes. If Sanders gets traction there, it could point to Trump being competitive in a general election. Hillary will be too strong in Philadelphia for it to matter in the Dem primary, but I'd be looking for signs of disaffected Democrats who might flip on the back of this argument (I should say I expect Hillary to win Pittsburg too, but the margins might be interesting). Perhaps its places like Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton and possibly Erie which might be more informative

So this brings us into Indiana on May 3rd, and this race has had pollsters scrambling all over the place to get round state laws about telephone sampling cold calls etc. The first clues we got came just over a week ago. There are other down ticket races going on in Indiana and so internal polling was leaked which was also surveying the Presidential primary race. This showed two polls that had Trump and Cruz tied on 32%. One of these polls was a second take though. The previous one had Trump behind by 10% in the wake of the Wisconsin debacle. The message was that Trump was trending up to be level by now. The third poll in this group of leaked internals gave Trump a narrow lead

Since then, three national pollsters have published their findings and its looking good for Trump. His spread is 37%-41% and averaged at 39%. Cruz's best figure is 35%. Kasich probably holds the key, but he could be coming out of eastern Tuesday with five second places in the last six contests. He looks well placed in Rhode Island and Connecticuit, and would fancy his chances in Maryland at the very least to go alongside New York. Also Cruz will have lost the narrative by now as being the only other candidate who can win by right. It's easier to vote for Kasich now if both are relying on conference manipulations

If we draw a line north of the Ohio river, and east of the Mississippi, its worth noting that Kasich's lowest vote was 12% in a bigger field caucus right out in Maine. The only time his vote ever got squeezed up was Wisconsin (14%). Otherwise he's managed 15% or more in Ohio, Illinois, New Hampshire, New York, Michigan, Massacheusetts, Virginia, and DC. There can't be much downside left in his current Indiana polling (averaging 19% now - which is consistent with Illinois). Its going to require him to get snatched up and reproduce his floor value of Wisconsin, with all those votes migrating to Cruz, to give Ted a chance. Indiana is starting to look like Illinois, and if Trump takes the state, it's close to being over

Now during the last week Trump faced a question about which bathroom transgender people should use, and suggested they should have the choice. This sent Cruz into a predictable rage. All it seems to have done though is draw more attention to his uber religious conservatism (something he was trying to dial back). It might help reinforce his standing in Indiana with same sorts a bit, but it damages him in California

The two most recent polls for California have Trump opening leads of 27pts and 18pts. He polled 49%. This would probably sweep close to 155+ of the 172 delegates and finish the race since Washington is proportional, and he still has West Virginia and New Jersey in the locker

heads are spinnin'

There's been an ebb and flow, but we could be seeing the end game now. Indiana is critically. If Trump wins there, it could all be over. All he has to do now is avoid gaffs and just dial himself back a little bit (something he's clearly struggling to do).
 
Warbler said:
heads are spinnin'

There's been an ebb and flow, but we could be seeing the end game now. Indiana is critically. If Trump wins there, it could all be over.
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However, Kasich has now handed a clear run to Cruz in Indiana in an organised bi-partisan pact to stop Trump reaching the 1,237. It's a quid pro quo deal that sees Cruz similarly pulling out of New Mexico and Oregon thereby returning the favour to Kasich.

"Kasich strategist John Weaver said “due to the fact that the Indiana primary is winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district, keeping Trump from winning a plurality in Indiana is critical to keeping him under 1,237 bound delegates before Cleveland. We are very comfortable with our delegate position in Indiana already, and given the current dynamics of the primary there, we will shift our campaign’s resources west and give the Cruz campaign a clear path in Indiana”.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...and-john-kasich-team-up-in-deal-to-stop-trump
 
Looks like desperate stuff by both of them. Clearly Cruz is accepting that Trump was winning Indiana and is now throwing the dice. Trump's recent upswing has largely been down to what people percieve as a rigged system, a corrupt party infrastructure, and specifically Cruz having bent the rules in Colorado, although he hasn't actually done anything wrong. Basically Trump made a complete mess of Colorado and realising he was getting heavily slaughtered decided to cry foul. Some of the more informed commentators laughed at the self styled hard man of New York who lives in the dog eat dog world of real estate, getting out manouevered by local party officials in some backward counties of Colorado and Wyoming, but ther eyou go. Even Nate Silver (who is no lover of Trump by a long way) attributes a 2% bump in his polling to this (I suspect its more). As it became obvious that Trump was benefiting from a sympathy vote in the last 10 days (who'd have thought that possible! - just show how dysfunctional the GOP is) Trump then tried to reinvent his organisational incompetance as some great strategic masterstroke whereby he sacrificed his own ambition in order shine a light into the murky dark recessess of the GOP. Again, the American public seem to have bought it

Coming together in an unholy alliance like this only plays further into the idea that Trump is the only genuine outsider and the others are owned and controlled by donors. I would have thought only about 10%-20% (max) of the voters affected by this are likely to follow the instruction. American voters are open to being persuaded who to vote for, but seriously bristle when someone tells them. I'd gamble that there is a higher probability that undecideds will start to break for Trump as a result of this perceived stitch up. I also suspect there'll be another group who might not have bothered voting who will now feel persuaded to participate on Trumps side now. There will be those who have deep concerns about 'the establishment' who are now realising that they're being played, and could jump ship towards Trump, especialyl Cruz voters who had adopted him as their anti establishment candidate. Cruz has forfeited this territory now. Finally its worth remembering that there is a significant bloc of Cruz voters who have Trump as their second choice, as they put his right wing barbarianism ahead of Kasich christianity

Don't be surprised to see Trump benefit from this decision.
 
At least we can rest assured that Trump writes his own press releases (hell you can almost hear his voice in it - and this is a slightly refined verison of the one put out originally which had gone back to calling Cruz lyin' Ted)


It is sad that two grown politicians have to collude against one person who has only been a politician for ten months in order to try and stop that person from getting the Republican nomination.

Senator Cruz has done very poorly and after his New York performance, which was a total disaster, he is in free fall and as everyone has seen, he does not react well under pressure. Also, approximately 80% of the Republican Party is against him. Governor Kasich, who has only won 1 state out of 41, in other words, he is 1 for 41 and he is not even doing as well as other candidates who could have stubbornly stayed in the race like him but chose not to do so. Marco Rubio, as an example, has more delegates than Kasich and yet suspended his campaign one month ago. Others, likewise, have done much better than Kasich, who would get slaughtered by Hillary Clinton once the negative ads against him begin. 85% of Republican voters are against Kasich.


Collusion is often illegal in many other industries and yet these two Washington insiders have had to revert to collusion in order to stay alive. They are mathematically dead and this act only shows, as puppets of donors and special interests, how truly weak they and their campaigns are. I have brought millions of voters into the Republican primary system and have received many millions of votes more than Cruz or Kasich. Additionally, I am far ahead of both candidates with delegates and would be receiving in excess of 60% of the vote except for the fact that there were so many candidates running against me.

Because of me, everyone now sees that the Republican primary system is totally rigged. When two candidates who have no path to victory get together to stop a candidate who is expanding the party by millions of voters, (all of whom will drop out if I am not in the race) it is yet another example of everything that is wrong in Washington and our political system. This horrible act of desperation, from two campaigns who have totally failed, makes me even more determined, for the good of the Republican Party and our country, to prevail!
 
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Warbler said:
At least we can rest assured that Trump writes his own press releases (hell you can almost hear his voice in it - and this is a slightly refined verison of the one put out originally which had gone back to calling Cruz lyin' Ted)


It is sad that two grown politicians have to collude against one person who has only been a politician for ten months in order to try and stop that person from getting the Republican nomination.

Senator Cruz has done very poorly and after his New York performance, which was a total disaster, he is in free fall and as everyone has seen, he does not react well under pressure. Also, approximately 80% of the Republican Party is against him. Governor Kasich, who has only won 1 state out of 41, in other words, he is 1 for 41 and he is not even doing as well as other candidates who could have stubbornly stayed in the race like him but chose not to do so. Marco Rubio, as an example, has more delegates than Kasich and yet suspended his campaign one month ago. Others, likewise, have done much better than Kasich, who would get slaughtered by Hillary Clinton once the negative ads against him begin. 85% of Republican voters are against Kasich.


Collusion is often illegal in many other industries and yet these two Washington insiders have had to revert to collusion in order to stay alive. They are mathematically dead and this act only shows, as puppets of donors and special interests, how truly weak they and their campaigns are. I have brought millions of voters into the Republican primary system and have received many millions of votes more than Cruz or Kasich. Additionally, I am far ahead of both candidates with delegates and would be receiving in excess of 60% of the vote except for the fact that there were so many candidates running against me.

Because of me, everyone now sees that the Republican primary system is totally rigged. When two candidates who have no path to victory get together to stop a candidate who is expanding the party by millions of voters, (all of whom will drop out if I am not in the race) it is yet another example of everything that is wrong in Washington and our political system. This horrible act of desperation, from two campaigns who have totally failed, makes me even more determined, for the good of the Republican Party and our country, to prevail!
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This has been fun but the idea of this continuing on into November with the latest poll showing Trump 3pt behind Clinton is seriously exciting.
 
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Scottish Labour's Kezia Dugdale went up a notch in my estimation (from a not very high starting point) last night when interviewed on the light-hearted political item with the guy who plays Gary Tank Commander.

While the other political leaders, when asked if they would "deal with or dinghy" Donald Trump should he be elected, fudged, avoided the question or changed the subject altogether, Dugdale was forthright:

"Dinghy him!"

"Dinghy him?"

"Aye, absolutely. He's an arse."
 
SlimChance said:
This has been fun but the idea of this continuing on into November with the latest poll showing Trump 3pt behind Clinton is seriously exciting.
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It's an interesting poll on two fronts

I think the opening question was "can I speak to the youngest person in the house who is registered to vote". Hillary has always performed poorly with young people (she's the person your parents voted for etc) on the plus side though, it is focused on battlefield states rather than one of these generic national polls

As I said earlier, it'll be worth watching Pennsylvania tonight to try and see which counties Trump wins (could take the lot outside of the Philly suburbs) and then correlating that with any Sanders wins. If the likes of Allentown, Bethlehem or even Pittsburg start trending towards anti free trade then Trump might have a shot at PA in a general against Hillary and her free trade and renewable energy agenda

There were a few other polls put out for yesterday morning's news cycle too that suggests the undecideds are breaking the Donalds way (we've never seen that happen before). In Rhode Island he was up to 61%. They have a WTA threshold of 66%. He might get an extra 10 delegates there if he can hit that, which might depend on whether there's been a kick back against the apparent conversion of Ted Cruz to same sex marriages!

In Connecticuit he was killing it too with 59% which is up about 10pts up from where he was 5 days ago. Again, this would give him a 100% delegate sweep. Pennsylvania has him at a new high water mark of 51%. This looks like the state with the least amount of volatility in it, with all three having been hitting similar numbers for a month. Having said that, Cruz and Kasich remain evenly matched in the mid 20's which could again lead to Trump taking just about every delegate out of PA, albeit we obviously have this critical issue of unbound delegates who make up a majority of their slate, I think they only award 17 for the plurality which he appears to have put to bed now

The general feeling was anything over a 100 was a result for Trump, as things stand this morning you'd say he looks good for that. You get the feeling that the #nevertrump movement is blowing itself out, and even the media seems to have thottled back (perhaps they realise that Trump/ Clinton is better for their ratings!). Once it goes into a one on one punchup anything becomes possible. Trump has a record of winning these street fighting encounters and Hillary has already said she won't respond to his name calling and attack ads. He's promised her all sorts of revelations and low blows etc Michael Dukakis also said he would stay above the dirty fray of a Republican onslaught, and he got flattened. John Kerry was similarly ambushed with some terrible stuff that Karl Rove fabricated about swift boats etc which later turned out to have no substance behind it

I still think he's trying to get John Kasich on the ticket. He's the one candidate Trump has notably never subjected to the name calling and personal attacks. Trump for all his stupidity knows the value of 18 college votes in Ohio, and Kasich could probably deliver that. He'll back himself to deliver Florida with Rick Scott, which leaves Pennsylvania. If he can flip PA then he wins on the Romney map. Having said that, amazing as it sounds, he looks like losing Utah, so will likely need another state from somewhere. It's difficult to nominate one, but I'd have thought there could be some mileage in New Hampshire, albeit Trump's talking big about Michigan. Hillary lost to Bernie in Michigan of course, and the state has been clobbered economically. I'm not sure that Trump's corresponding victory there was overwhelming though to flip that particular state. It's been solidly blue for a long time

At least when the primaries are over we'll be down to using the 270towin as a predicting tool which is much more reliable than this RCP delegate predictor which has really had its limitations exposed once the race started allocating delegates based on congressional districts and proportionality with local WTA thresholds.
 
He won every county, only failure to trigger the 66% WTA in Rhode Island stopped him sweeping the lot. 105 delegates is a big result however much Ted Cruz tries to blame it all on a liberal media conspiracy (a man thinks which toilet transgender people use is the burning issue of the day)

You can add at least 20 delegates from Pennsylvania to the list (probably more) as a majority of those elected unbound pledged that they'd represent the state decision

Indiana could be the last stand at this rate. The most recent private polling suggests that Trump is extending his lead there in the wake of the Cruz/ Kasich marriage. He's opening leads in California too that would indicate a big haul there is possible. Something close to 150 even
 
He's popularity is going through the roof now after the last week or two. I don't think there's any stopping him now, he can only stop himself.

Imagine 6 months ago him polling 60% in states? Mental.
 
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Well its true that the 25% ceiling that commentators said he had looks a bit historical right now, but we do need to remember that he's only winning amongst Republicans so far. Even Bernie Sanders has polled 2M more than Ted Cruz

This is the maths as I see it now (becoming a bit clearer now that we're getting a better handle on some of the bizarre state by state rules)

Trump currently stands anywhere between 956 and 949 depending on who you believe (say 950)

Lets deal with the proportional states first, they're amongst the easiest. Oregon (28), Washington (44) and New Mexico (24). His worst primary result came in Idaho (28%) but that was seriously unfavourable territory. The better guide might be Wisconsin which is the only example of a three horse race where a #nevertrump vote appears to have been co-ordinated and worked. So lets assume he can match that and apply a blanket 35%. This would give 33 delegates and a new cumulative total of 983

Now lets add in a couple of WTA states that he appears to have in the bag. New Jersey (51) takes him to 1034. West Virginia you have to vote for a slated delegate who is bound to the candidate they nominate. In theory Trump should sweep the 34 delegates on offer but lets assume his notoriously poor organisation screws up a bit and he only takes 30. His new total is 1064

Now we can make some assumptions about the 54 unbound that Pennsylvania is sending. Over half of them have apparently pledged to support the state. Trump won every county, so lets err on the side of caution and suggest that at least 27 of these will find their way into his camp. He now sits on 1091

This leaves California and Indiana.

Turning to California first, he looks good to take the 10 statewide winner delegates (1101) leaving the 59 congressional districts who allocate WTA for 3 delegates each

1237 - 1101 = 136 / 3 = 45 districts needed

He has a path to win the nomination without Indiana on his current polling

If he takes Indiana next Tuesday then 1101 + 57 = 1158
1237 - 1158 = 79 delegates needed from the CA congressional districts (26 in other words - less than half)

A win in Indiana finishes it for Trump barring anything stupid (which he is capable of)

Even if he loses Indiana and misses the broad target of 136 delegates he'd need out of California, the chances are he's only falling short by 20 or so. You would expect him to be able to secure this from other unbound delegates before the convention (especially as rules allow candidates to contribute towards delegates expenses), plus the 27 we've left hanging from Pennsylvania

I think we're going to get our Hillary Trump show after all.

Cruz's popularity is nosediving the more people look under the bonnet and decide they don't like what they see. Indeed, his own unfavourables have overtaken Trumps. Cruz has it all to do now, and over the last month he's been seen to inherit the fatal tag of 'insider, establishment pick' (amazing in itself) but as people can see the GOP coelescing with him to play the rule book, Trumps allegation is sticking. Even lyin' Ted is finally starting to get some traction
 
Warbler said:
Well its true that the 25% ceiling that commentators said he had looks a bit historical right now, but we do need to remember that he's only winning amongst Republicans so far. Even Bernie Sanders has polled 2M more than Ted Cruz
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This is probably a daft question so feel free to ridicule it, but as I don't understand Americans, let alone their voting system could I ask:

Are these Primaries 'one man one vote'? i.e. you either vote for one of the Republican candidates or one of the Democrats. I ask this because I think I'm right in saying - though it wasn't the case yesterday - that some States hold the Primaries for the two Parties on different dates.

I have this quite probably erroneous thought that those of a Democrat persuasion are free to vote for the Republican they dislike least one day and the Democrat they like most on another day, and vice versa
 
It varies state to state

Lets deal with the distinction(s) of closed, open, and semi first

If you're political active you choose to register your affiliation. In states that hold 'closed' primaries (or caucus's) only registered party supporters can participate. You're normally required to register a couple of months before a vote, albeit some states (New Hampshire IIRC) allow you to do it on the day. An opne primary allows anyone to vote regardless of affiliation, so a democrat can cross the lines to vote for Trump. A semi is restricted to registered voters plus independents (you can register with the state commission as an independent)

Most votes take place on the same day (Nevada doesn't) but most do. You're only allowed to vote in one of the primaries though

Just to add further confusion you sometimes have a convention vote whereby you vote for the delegate to attend the conference and cast their vote on your behalf. This si where Trump's being screwing up. Cruz has been getting his supporters onto the 'slate'. In somewhere like Pennsylvania for instance the delegates name appears on the ballot form, but the onus is on the voter to check who they're affiliated to, they don't have to declare it. West Virginia has a similar structure but their delegates have to decalre who they intend supporting

You also have unbound delegates who are trusted to make a decision at conference. Cruz has been very good at getting his folk into these positions, albeit Trump might have drawn his sting in Pennsylvania who are sending 54 delegates unbound, albeit a majority have pledged to support the state winner (Trump). Some of the territories like American Samoa and American Virgin islands are doing this too

Finally you have convention voting which is more of a committee decision. Remember the political parties of America are private affairs. They aren't member led parties. Technically the GOP could turn round at Cleveland and refuse to allow Trump to represent them still. Basically its their party and they decide. Once they've decided its then up to the voters as to whether or not they'll support the choice. Now this would be political suicide, but its not too far removed from what's happened in Colorado and Wyoming where they state convention imposed Cruz supporting into their slate

On the Democrat side they have something called 'super delegates' which is a party fail safe mechanism of sorts (expect the GOP to adopt something similar after this cycle) but we'll leave that for now

I must be honest, I didn't understand the whole convention structure when predicting Trump would win back in January. I knew these existed, but had always assumed that the winner would simply be put through on a nod and a wink, and that would be Trump regardless of 1237 or a plurality. As things became tighter I then compunded this by putting too much stock the RCP delegate predictor tool which has proven to be deeply flawed. In fact even now I'm not sure you can make it give Trump 1237 votes even if you give him Indiana and 50% of the California vote. That's how bad its proven to be. Now its thinned out though and some of the state machinations have become clearer, its much easier to take a good guess.

If Trump wins Indiana next week, its over
If Trump loses Indiana he can probably still win if he holds his current position in California
If Trump loses Indiana and under performs a bit in California but falls 30 delegates short he'll still likely win but will need to start bribing a few folk
 
Is it just me or are the prices in the market including Betfair really reactive and not proactive. There were enough polls two days ago to predict the change in last nights primaries. The polls essentially predicted that Trump would break 50% in all of them (some easily) yet they was chunks up laying Trump at 6.2 to be the next president You'd have to ask yourself what the 6.2 layers had running for them bar Hillary and death. As soon as I saw those polls, the Indiana poll that put him ahead and the head to head with Clinton that had him 3 points behind I made him 1/10 for the nomination and 9/4 for the White House. These markets are not sophisticated as other markets. So many betting experts are doing a lot of after timing and not a lot of predicting.

The question now for Warbler (someone who does try to predict things) is on the Romney road map, what states can Trump win that Romney couldn't?

Trump is now 5.2 to be the next president. I can't see how he doesn't trade sub 2/1 between now and November. There is so much that he can do to make this a close election on the polls.
 
Trump at 5.2 is a fantastic back to lay. He will be less than half that price when it's a two horse race which is all but certain now.
 
Maruco said:
Trump at 5.2 is a fantastic back to lay. He will be less than half that price when it's a two horse race which is all but certain now.
Click to expand...

If you assume Clinton's price is correct then Trump will be trading 3.75 after the nomination. I think Clinton's price is on the low side. The market seems to overly factoring in different scenarios on the Republican side right now. At 5.2 I can see a way where you could exit the market at 4.1 or ower without needing anything dramatic to happen. Trumps consolidation of power allows the party to throw their hands in the air and realise it's time to start formulating a road map for Trump to win in November. Either that or they abandon him and focus on the House and Senate. Either way the media overdrive in this match up is rife for major market movements. It won't all go Clinton's way.
 
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