Victor Chandler Chase 2012

J

Justin Redman

At the Start
Joined
Mar 14, 2006
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208
5 Day declarations for the Victor Chandler Chase are as follows:

1. Al Ferof
2. Finian's Rainbow
3. Forpadydeplasterer
4. Gauvain
5. I'm So Lucky
6. Oiseau De Nuit
7. Somersby
8. Wishfull Thinking

Finian's Rainbow to win and Forpadydeplasterer a good e/w horse.

Thoughts?
 
Yeah, we already have a thread for this. And you have clearly decided on this order using the pulling the horses names out of a paper bag method.
 
The order that they are in is the racecard order, not the order I think they're going to finish. My predictions are below as stated.
 
Fair does.

I took 8s each way about WT when the prices came out and think he will give Finian's most to do. A lot of fuss was made about the error the latter made at Kempton but Hobbs animal made a momentum stopping mistake as well. Like last year I think he's improving as the season progresses. I chortled at this from Johnson though:

He was fantastic last year and he started off this season disappointingly, but I think he just got too excited and was doing too much too early
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Like he had no ******* control over this.
 
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I agree with you with regards WT. And I agree with you about him possibly giving Finian's a race considering how close they were last time. What I don't understand is Paul Nicholls' high expectations of Al Ferof.
"I'm under no pretensions that he faces anything other than a serious rival in Finian's Rainbow, but I don't think it's as though we're taking on a Sizing Europe or Master Minded," Nicholls said.
"Finian's Rainbow is only one race out of the novice stage himself, and on a line through Ghizao I think I know where I stand. I'll say no more than that."

I don't know if you agree but I don't think Ghizao can be compared to Finian's?
 
It's obvious he's exploring ways of finding out where he is with Al Ferof in regards to a possible tilt at the QM. And that has bugger all to do with high expectations and everything to do with avoiding Sprinter Sacre.

And no, Ghizao isn't in the same parrish as Finian's Rainbow.
 
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Well I think he's going to be stuffed either way but as you said at least he's chancing his arm and see where the horse stands. If he eventually runs in the QM, he will probably be midfield at best, whereas in the Arkle he has a much stronger chance despite the strength in depth of 2 mile novice chasers this season.
 
Wishfull Thinking's price, relative to Finian's Rainbow - and even moreso that of Al Ferof - is a bit of an insult to the horse. Based on Kempton running alone, WT deserves to be a much shorter price, and I can't have Al Ferof shorter in any scenario I run through.

If Nicholls is pinning Al Ferof's hopes on a line through Ghizao, he's building an even bigger straw-man than even I'm capable of.

I think WT will be backed when there's more interest in the market, and the bare form of Al Ferof's novice chase wins gets some attention. I think the Hobbs horse could go off second-fave, and have backed him in the hope that he has turned a corner with the turning of the calendar. Even if he's the same horse as at Kempton, I'd take my chances at the price. I'll be looking to place-lay Al Ferof if one drops out of the dead-eight.
 
Worth looking at Paul Nicholls' piece on betfair regarding Al Ferof. Get the impression that the Champion Chase isn't really a target at present, whatever happens on Saturday. Agree his price is pretty short really. I'm not convinced Finian's is the second coming yet either, and I think that Wishfull Thinking's form from last spring is better. Holding him up last time worked against him given that they crawled, and given I backed him at 4's for the Tingle Creek, I'd be crazy not to do the same for a weaker race at 13/2.
 
No secret which camp Im in - though he has to win this convincingly to have a real chance in the Champion - will no earplugs send him too far the other way again....

Im more concerned about Somersby than any of the others to be honest, just think hes the one with the experience and the class and hes dangerous to overlook.
 
Couldnt have Somersby at any price. Wishful Thinking EW at 13/2 a fifth the odds first 3 with Ladbrokes is a bet to nothing IMO.
 
Love it how in the build up to the King George all the quotes from the Hen were how this is Somerby's time, he's a three-miler now. Less than a month later, he's back at 2m.
 
She has always got stick for not running them unless conditions were perfect and now...
 
Clearly the Hobbs team feel Wishfull Thinking has turned the corner, and that he's good enough not to bother entering Captain Chris for the QM.
For my money, his last 2 runs have been 'experimental' - this weekend they take the wraps off.
 
Not an easy one to work out this.

The last time Al Ferof ran in this sort of class was in the Supreme'.

It worries me he lost an awful lot of ground that day when he was found wanting as Sprinter Sarcre suddenly injected some pace in to the race as they took off towards the 2nd last.

He had lost about 4 lengths and fair play to him he ran on really well and won but just how much of that 2nd chance came from the Henderson pair stopping I'm not sure.

Sprinter Sacre stopped through weakenss and Spirit Son probably stopped because he'd been going head to head with him since after the 3rd last.

If he hits a similar flat spot in this race it could cost him dearly and he is a novice with no allowances which goes against the grain.


Finian's Rainbow for the best part is a brilliant jumper but he was less than impressive at some of his fences at Aintree and looked like he had gone blind when walking straight into one the other day. If he jumps fence to fence I doubt if Al ferof will catch him but PN knows the horse and at Aintree Ghizao was never of his back so I supect Ruby will be trying to stay within a couple of lengths of him all the way round. Back to the Novice bit I doubt if he will be able to.

Both have got there minuses which could open the dorr for something else.

I've always said Somersby is short of top class but one day a race might fall into his lap.

I couldn't help but notice Somersby was absoloutely hacking in the King George before turning for home. If anything he was going as well if not even better than Kauto for a while but then he hit the wall and poop! out like a light.

I have no time for his trainer/s I think they do some crazy things and seem to think every horse they train is the next Best Mate, so much depends on whether that run in the KIng George has taken the edge of him or not, on how he runs here. With niggling doubts on the front 2 I think he's worth a bet.

PN seems to be throwing caution to the wind by running Al Ferof here which is strange. I honestly believe he's doing so because he thinks the horse has no chance of winning anything at Cheltenham and there's no Sprinter Sacre's or Sizing Europe's here.
 
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I thought we already had a thread on this somewhere. The way I'm (still) thinking is much the same as Euro that Finian's beats Wishfull Thinking for the forecast. It's quite a nice race though and if they all run to something like they are capable we should be in for a treat.

I've been bored stiff with much of what's been on offer lately.
 
Is Gauvain being overlooked?

I've never backed him before but thought 8/1 is a decent EW price if all 8 run. Not so much if anything comes out.
 
I think the pace will be key to finding the winner in this race. If Finians can dictate from the front he will win but if something else puts it up to him and makes it a stern test I could see Al ferof or Gauvain out staying him.
 
I'm most interested to see what happens when somebody puts it up to Finians. I didn't like when he was challenged the last day he made a howler. If he is to step up to the top grade, he'll need to be able to mix it.
 
hezz said:
I'm most interested to see what happens when somebody puts it up to Finians. I didn't like when he was challenged the last day he made a howler. If he is to step up to the top grade, he'll need to be able to mix it.
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This love affair in lasting longer than I thought...:p
 
Current prices for the race as it stands:

Finian's Rainbow - 15-8F
Al Ferof - 3-1
Somersby - 6-1
Wishfull Thinking - 13-2
Gauvain - 9-1
Forpadydeplasterer - 14-1
I'm So Lucky - 40-1
Ouiseau De Buit - 40-1

Were any horses taken out at the final declaration stage? Can't find anything to say any have.

Coming around to Wishfull Thinking @ 13-2. Good e/w price imo.
 
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