Victor Chandler Chase 2012

He ran well in the race last year yes, but I would argue that Master Minded's best trip was two and a half rather than two miles at that stage of his career.


All I'm saying is that if Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof can't take care of Somersby what chance have they got against Sizing Europe and Sprinter Sacre?
 
frontrunner said:
His performances over 2 miles against Masterminded on right handed tracks dont seem too shabby to me.
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Master Minded was hugely overrated for a couple of seasons though. Somersby is overrated on 166 as a result.

I think he is a 160 horse which means FR ran to around his mark of 157 and Al Ferof to about 153.

I was disappointed with both of them to be honest. I thought they both had chances in their respective targets but they didn't do them any favours today in my opinion.

I am hoping that the form is overrated by the majority because I think Somersby is opposable in the Ryanair because he always gets beat when he comes up against a top class animal. Finian's Rainbow at 6/1 for the Champion Chase is terrible value on all known evidence. Al Ferof has it to prove at 2m for me.
 
Euronymous said:
Might be the worst price of any horse at the Festival now. And with Big Zeb surely being too old now I think 9/4 about Sizing Europe is worth taking.
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9/4 Sizing Europe might well be the best priced horse at the Festival. I cannot see any dangers. I've already backed him at 11/4 though I might be tempted to go in again mind. The one doubt is that his prep will be at Punchestown and he is usually below par at the course. Can't see anything touching him at Cheltenham though.
 
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Zenyatta said:
9/4 Sizing Europe might well be the best priced horse at the Festival. I cannot see any dangers. I've already backed him at 11/4 though. Might be tempted to go in again mind. The one doubt is that his prep will be at Punchestown and he is usually below par at the course. Can't see anything touching him at Cheltenham though.
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He wont be fully geared for that. He is a cheltenham horse, whatever happens at Punchestown won't stop me going in on him
 
I can't have it.

His Tingle Creek and Chandler form from last season were both performances you could have more faith in, than the Melling Chase. IMO.
 
Kinda sick backed Somersby ok but put Finians in a 7 6 5 accie best and had 6 winners 2 off which were odds against cost me a right few bob such is life.

Can't believe Paul Nichols he's got to be extracting the urine saying Ruby said and I am happy bla bla bla.

Al Ferof displayed today his inability to cope with rapid changes in pace and believe you me there isn't a race run at the festival when you dont get a few of them.

Older horses perhaps but better than Sprinter Sacre? I sincerly doubt it and BG would argue that all day.

Al Ferof has no chance of coping with Sprinter Sacre and Peddler's Cross when the big horse takes off and PC goes off in pursuit, he'll be left standing like a tree.

He couldn't keep up with Sprinter Sacre when he was a big weak baby who stopped for that very reason, so how they expect to be able to go with him when he quickens this time? Plus if they think he'll come back to them like he did in the Supreme they'll be waiting a very long time for that to happen.

Good performance all the same from a horse who has that look that says he'll always be a half stride short of top class. His level will end up being very similar to Somersby and will find another good race to win someday but it won't be this March IMO
 
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frontrunner said:
I take it your mean "poor" by really average ,if you do I would disagree . I thought it was a decent renewal albeit with out a superstar. On reflection it was quite a clever move by PN to run Al Ferof ,who I htought ran really well . As you say the bookies didnt react much ,except for Carols who put AF out to a very generous 8/1.
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It was without doubt an average race. Stick Sizing Europe and Big Zeb in there and Al Ferof wouldn't be sighted.

NH's first reaction was Ryanair instead of QMCC which doesn't say much for the form of todays race

No doubt Hen and Terry will be making plans to take on Frankel next which sums up how much attention you should pay to what they have to say.

Sprinter Sacre is already regarded a better horse than Finians by quite some way and would have hacked up against that lot today.

They say Barry was asked would Sprinter Sacre beat Finians Rainbow in a match and he asked " How many stones would Sprinter have to give him? :o)
 
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I don't get the downer on Al Ferof-he has solid festival form for the last 2 years.Sprinter Sacre was the one who didn't get up the hill last year.Today was a serious test for Al Ferof and the experience he gained will be a massive plus for the Arkle.
I don't dismiss SS lightly but Al Ferof is an outstanding each way bet at 8s.
 
LUKE said:
I don't get the downer on Al Ferof-he has solid festival form for the last 2 years.Sprinter Sacre was the one who didn't get up the hill last year.Today was a serious test for Al Ferof and the experience he gained will be a massive plus for the Arkle.
I don't dismiss SS lightly but Al Ferof is an outstanding each way bet at 8s.
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I think Al Ferof ran right up to the best expectations people could have had for him. He's a novice running against a solid open standard here and there are better novices around anyway.
 
Still in shock that Somersby won that race today. How do you begin to rate it. Wishfull ran a shocker, Gauvain was beaten when he fell, Oiseau ran no race either, the rag finished fifth, Forpaddy was off it four out. Al Ferof was taken around so wide by Ruby he would have needed to the second coming of Azertioup to have won. It was a strange race - Finians must have gone very short IR.
Fair play to all who stayed loyal to Somersby - his followers deserved that more than connections.
 
I think this was the first time Somersby has run for at least two seasons that I didn't back him - I felt I'd been patient with the scatty one's antics for long enough
 
Wouldn't be writing Somersby off for the festival, just yet. The sheepskins and a more positive ride enabled him to do something he should have done long ago and, through FPTP, he has the clear beating of RyanAir favourite Noble Prince. Knowing his trainer though, she's equally likely to stick blinkers on, and take on Sizing Europe in the Champion.
Al Ferof ran a blinder, picking up 11k when ridden for all the world like a trial for something else, though whether he'd have the speed to take on Sprinter Sacre remains doubtful.
Good solid form imo, in a race run at a decent pace overall, and it's onward and upwards for all the first 3, depending on how their trainers place them.
 
Euronymous said:
Somersby's runs in all those races contradicts that viewpoint Grassy.
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I'm not sure it does, Euro.

Somersby generally always runs to near the best of his form around stiff tracks like Ascot and Cheltenham. His performances around sharper tracks (Aintree, Kempton, Huntingdon) are measurably inferior, imo.

Aintree form is often questionable anyway; with many horses failing to give their true running after hard races at the Festival. The Melling Chase and Betfair Bowl are two races I always treat with a degree of caution after-the-fact.
 
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LUKE said:
I don't get the downer on Al Ferof-he has solid festival form for the last 2 years.Sprinter Sacre was the one who didn't get up the hill last year.Today was a serious test for Al Ferof and the experience he gained will be a massive plus for the Arkle.
I don't dismiss SS lightly but Al Ferof is an outstanding each way bet at 8s.
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To cite the fact Sprinter Sacre couldn't get up the hill when he was a big gangly baby is a pretty weak atempt to try and find fault in him. The way he has developed if the entire course was uphill he'd still fly up it.

The fact is, he's grown up and changed and the hill is the least of his probelms, if he even has any.

Al Ferof however has done exactly the same thing as he did last year in the Supreme. At the most crucial poit of the race he's been tapped for toe hit a flat spot and Ruby's become more and more animated trying to keep him in the race. If am repeating myself I apologies but this time the horses i n front didn't stop like they did at Cheltenham and he's never even looked like winning.

Considering one of the horses in front of him was Sprinter Sacre's musc less talented stable companion in every conceivable way I'd say Al Ferof is in big big trouble if Paul Nichols thinks for one minute Cheltenham will improve his chances. If you watch the Supreme again look at how much ground Sprinter Sacre gains on Al Ferof as they swoop towards the 2nd last. he only in second gear Ruby is niggling and he shoots 4 lengths clear in an instant.

That is the one most significent thing you should take out of that race. That Sprinter Sacre is miles faster than Al Ferof without even coming off the bridle.

Take away last year obvious weakness and weight wouldn't bring the two together.

Enter Peddler's Cross who we know can go a bit and doesn't hit flat spots.

If he gets within striking distance of Sprinter with a half mile to run e.g., up goes the pace again anf Al Ferof will be left standing.

I doubt if he has any hope of being in the first 2 and if he has a hard race he'll be exhausted andd could easily be run out of the places.
 
Al Ferof in finishing third has posted a solid figure around 160. How many Arkle's would that win in the last 20 years? The vast majority of them I would suggest. It was a really good run yesterday, and whilst it showed there's something of a cap on his ability at the trip, the cap is sufficiently high to suggest he goes there with strong claims for the Arkle. I'd already backed him at 7/1, and had to top up at Coral's 8's. Sprinter Sacre may be the second coming, but he's priced as if he's already done it, well Al Ferof did, yesterday.
 
Would you really want to be a place layer of Al Ferof.Horses that
fail to get up the hill at the festival often do it a second or third time.
As I said I don't dismiss SS lightly but connections of Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will be very keen to make it a proper test.
 
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