Welsh National

The weather has improved, some rain the last couple of days but I doubt that the course has dried out much, no sun or wind.

Reports suggesting that parts of the course are still waterlogged.
 
Latest from RP site:

Welsh National going update
After a dry night the going is Heavy. Despite 45mm of rain between Saturday and Monday, the meeting looks like going ahead. The forecast is dry and mild on Friday and Saturday, with a maximum temperature of 10C. (4 mins ago)
 
I will throw tuppence e/w on Master Overseer at 20-1; a Midlands National winner and will act on the heavy:ninja:
 
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Teaforthree is Pricewise at 5/1. People are falling over themselves to take 7/2 tonight! There was a member on here years ago who put us all into Bindaree the year he won it. It was a large write up a friend of his had done that pointed out the atrocious record of horses that run in the Hennessy have in the Welsh National.

I think the members name was del_burges
 
SlimChance said:
Teaforthree is Pricewise at 5/1. People are falling over themselves to take 7/2 tonight! There was a member on here years ago who put us all into Bindaree the year he won it. It was a large write up a friend of his had done that pointed out the atrocious record of horses that run in the Hennessy have in the Welsh National.

I think the members name was del_burges
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Stats are useful when they're based on common-sense principles, and while it's logical that the WN is run on a different track, over a longer distance, and usually on more testing ground, it's not often the Hennessy is used purely as a prep race.
It clearly was in Teaforthree's case - both from his form, and the trainer's stated intention - so it might be unwise to judge his chance on the basis of previous years.
For mine, he's much the best chance in the race, and - barring sticky ground - I can't see him beaten.
 
reet hard said:
Stats are useful when they're based on common-sense principles, and while it's logical that the WN is run on a different track, over a longer distance, and usually on more testing ground, it's not often the Hennessy is used purely as a prep race.
It clearly was in Teaforthree's case - both from his form, and the trainer's stated intention - so it might be unwise to judge his chance on the basis of previous years.
For mine, he's much the best chance in the race, and - barring sticky ground - I can't see him beaten.
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That's a fair point. I just find it staggering how short a price people are willing to take.
 
I tried to take the 5/1 (2pts) with Hills just after 8.30 but was offered less than that. When I tried to accept it they trimmed the offer again and when I tried to take it they cut the price back down to 3/1.

It would interesting to know exactly how much they accepted at the 5/1.
 
Flemenstar said:
My money is on ROYAL CHARM @ 33/1 who ran a super race last time out behind Sona Sasta, when staying on stoutly into 3rd and is weighted to reverse that form. Cannot quite understand the massive price discrepancy between the two? He'll love the ground , he loves Chepstow, he's well handicapped & looks progressive as an 8yo, also Cannington Brook who was 11 lengths behind him in 4th last time out, has since gone on to win.
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Seeing as Royal Charm has been redirected to Sandown. I'm on TRIGGERMAN @ 65 and various place money.
 
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In the welsh national
PP have the winning distance 4 1/2 Lenghts or more at 1/1
Boyles have under 7 Lenghts 1/1

Give you a free shot at inbetween the two.

The PP distance looks very low 4 1/2 L does'nt seem too much in a 3m5f race on heavy going
 
baldeagle said:
Monbeg Dude won a pp over here Paul Carberry going to ride his only mount of the Day could be interesting
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The yard think the world of Monbeg Dude - very cheap buy after that Nenagh win too. Would be delighted if he goes in for Scu - would be great for them after losing Saphir River due to circumstances beyond their control.
 
How f*cking cool is Carberry! I'm not sure any other jockey would have done that.

I am Richard Johnson's biggest critic but I thought he too was brilliant on Triggerman.
 
Great ride - was Jamie Moore claimed by his dad to ride at Sandown or jocked off? Teaforthree ran an utter blinder and had he put in a big leap at the last who knows and very game giving over a stone.
 
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