What are you backing Today? Part 2

Desert Orchid said:
I don't know if I'll get to see the racing today but I've got a few modest bets on.

The Turftrax maps have been showing the final half-mile as being better since last weekend and when it was soft the other day the final half-mile was showing G-S. It's G-S all over just now but the last half-mile might be good(ish) by the time racing starts.

1.50 - I have to stick with Portland here, having backed him at Ascot. I was a bit surprised they’d dropped him in trip there and took it as a sign of confidence in his speed but he was never really up to the gallop and wasn’t given a hard time when it was clear he wasn’t going to be competitive. Of his future entries, only the Voltigeur is at 12f, the rest are at further so this step back up in trip has to be a positive. I’m not suggesting he’s a good thing – far from it – but there are question marks over the favourite and too big a difference between him and Space Legend in the market. It’s as much a combination of hope and value as anything else but the race has been kind to me down the years.

3.00 - It doesn’t look like trainers actively target this race with only Andrew Balding having more than one winner (4) in the last 20 years. If Imperial Guard has been held back for it then 12/1 (as was on Tuesday) could be value. It’s worth a small bet anyway to find out. Two Tribes and Woodhay Wonder (NR) were to the forefront of my thoughts at Ascot in the Holyrood House, with the latter only marginally below form dropped back to five furlongs there. This might be more her bag having proved herself over CD. Only Military holds Group entries but there’s nothing in his CV to suggest he’s up to that level. This is more likely to go to something currently rated in the 90s with a future in the 110s. Last year Quinault won off 90 and is now rated 102, Mill Stream (99/114) was second and Washington Heights (94/113) was fourth. The year before, Lethal Levi won off 85 and went up to 100 last season. Woodhay Wonder (NR) and Imperial Guard will be the main bets. Dorney Lake (Godolphin) who disappointed at Ascot, Elmonjed (Shadwell, NR) and Sergeant Wilko (King Power) represent big outfits but the bookies have them onside. (I've substituted Two Tribes 11/1, 4 pl, my top rated, for WW.)

5.20 - Clover’s comments after Fifty Nifty won first time up suggests the gelding is held in some regard so his defeat next time can maybe be forgiven. It’s possible he’s a fast improving 3yo and Marquand looks a strong booking. A modest win bet with Urban Sprawl, having his first run since being gelded, for some each-way cover will be my play.
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Not long home after being invited out to do some shopping... :eek:

Portland has failed to live up to the high hopes I had for him after the Sandown Trial. And to think I thought he had Irish Derby pretensions. :axeman2: Next stop Crufts.

Pleased that Giavellotto won. The only reasons I didn't back it (didn't bet in the race) were the drop back in trip after ten weeks off and I wondered if this was a prep for something bigger over further or maybe with the Melbourne Cup in mind, and I wasn't sure if he'd be okay on ground with a bit of give.

Two Tribes covered me in the 3yo sprint hcap but I'd thought the winner too short compared with 16/1 available on Tuesday. The winner was a +p and the runner-up was my second top rated so the figures are doing okay.

Hopefully the last race will be kinder to me.
 
probably the most sensible way to go today is 2 single bets on Ryan Moore in the two Group races
However I was really taken by the performance of Running Lion at Royal Ascot


Porta Fortuna is the form pick but what worries me is the time she took to get going
In the Coronation...Running Lion ridden from the front may be able to steal a march on her and is worth a bet at the prices.

On all known form Ryan should win the sprint on Heavens Gate
 
Few trackers out today three of whom are in the same race....Apiarist, EBT's Guard and Magnum Opus in the 3.25 at Ascot. I've backed the first two and have Magnum Opus in a couple of multis with Native King at Chester later and Starlust tomorrow in the sprint at York.

Involvement in the opener at Newmarket is another horse I'm following but his price has crashed now, got 9s earlier in the week.
 
I just backed Paradias for the John Smiths tomorrow.

Excellent second the last day. Haunted Dream was back in fourth and franked the form at Royal Ascot, and he's about half the price of Paradias.

There's a few with winning claims, including Haunted Dream, so I'm far from blinkered in thinking this will be easy for Paradias to win.

But he's got his chance, and I've taken my chance. I believe in a thing called luck.
 
That's twice Shay Farmer has given Tolstoy a fine ride.
I'll be looking for anything he's on now. That 7lb he's claiming looking like money in the bank.
 
Trying to reach my target for today so have backed Glenfinna in the place market.

I backed Andre Mullan on hot pot Wen Moon........worst ride you could ever hope to see...little wonder he has an 8% strike rate.
 
Newton Abbot 3.05 Opening Bid.

A great chance tomorrow.

He's won over further, so I hope and expect he'll try to make all.
 
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