What are you backing Today? Part 2

Plenty of interesting betting races but keeping stakes modest.

Sandown
1.50 - Equality
2.25 - Cicero's Gift + ew double
3.35 - See The Fire ew
4.47 - Balmacara, Storm Catcher, Stephensons Rocket

Haydock
3.15 - Sheer Rocks, Chillingham, King's Code, L'Astronome
4.25 - Boardman

(Plus some fun multiples.)
 
Nothing over strong today did get 5s on Billyjoh in the 425 at Haydock when prices opened but that's gone now. Also like See the Fire in the w/o market mentioned on the Eclipse thread. Done a few multis like Dessie:

ew trix:
Align the Stars (tracker been a nice horse for me bit worried about the step up in trip) 205 H
Queen of the Pride (hard to split her and Lady Boba, can't have Tiffany as the fav, want to take her on) 240 H
Blake (not a tracker but he beat one of mine, EBT's Guard, at the track and that horse has franked the form. Blake ran well at Epsom also) 412 S

ew trix:
Lady Boba (see above) 240 H
Telemark (cover on Billyjoh. Won well at Thirsk beat a tracker of mine that day..Piz Nair) 425 H
Run Boy Run (I put this horse in my tracker after a staying on defeat to Cool Dividend at the track, poor at York since but that's such a hard race and I like this step up to 7f, he's a big price) 500 H
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sandown
1.50 - Equality
2.25 - Cicero's Gift + ew double
Click to expand...

The ride Equality got was still annoying me by the time this race started but at least CG has covered me for the day as I didn't go too modest on it and got a nice price this morning.

I really did fancy that double.

I also thought the jockey was trying not to win too far all the way up the straight but he did say the horse needed the run.

Bigger and better to come, I reckon.

Good race for my figures too:

Horse​
MON
121​
Notes​
Cicero's Gift 1st​
121​
+p​
Holloway Boy 2nd​
121​
p?​
Point Lynas​
120​
p​
Perotto 3rd​
120​
+?​
Silent Film 5th​
119​
[122y]​
Dual Identity 6th​
119​
Two Tempting​
119​
p​
Classic​
119​
p? +?​
Metal Merchant​
117​
Magic Memories​
115​
p​
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Sandown

4.47 - Balmacara, Storm Catcher, Stephensons Rocket
Click to expand...

Balmacara was my second-biggest bet of the day and ran better than I could have imagined, pulling 13 lengths clear. Unfortunately some other bandit finished in front of him. I look forward to putting a figure on that form. It looked like quite a performance from the front two on the clock.
 
He's deffo going in my tracker. Blake was the third part of my winning trixie, a very nice win. The form looks very solid, Persico franked Blake's form later in the card as did Portsmouth really at Ascot and EBT's Guard did the same at Yarmouth. That race needs a looking at as well as the winner came from an unpromising possie. Saturday's trix was my biggest win on racing since Corebus won the Guineas. After a couple of really bad flat seasons this has been a very good one thus far
 
Euronymous said:
He's deffo going in my tracker. Blake was the third part of my winning trixie, a very nice win. The form looks very solid, Persico franked Blake's form later in the card as did Portsmouth really at Ascot and EBT's Guard did the same at Yarmouth. That race needs a looking at as well as the winner came from an unpromising possie. Saturday's trix was my biggest win on racing since Corebus won the Guineas. After a couple of really bad flat seasons this has been a very good one thus far
Click to expand...
That's a great winning trixie, E.

Top stuff (y) 🥇
 
Looking at Worcester 4.20 I like two:
Champetre - an improved show lto, he'll like the distance, the going, is visored 1st time and trainer Oliver Signy, though having had few runners here, has a decent track record. 28/1

Moodofthemoment. Was on my list for his last but one rules chase, where he made extremely good headway late on to snatch third over an inadequate 2m 4f. Switched stables, comes here on the back of three point-to-point wins. Is bred to stay forever, is going - adaptable, runs for a new stable 20/1
 
yorick said:
Looking at Worcester 4.20 I like two:
Champetre - an improved show lto, he'll like the distance, the going, is visored 1st time and trainer Oliver Signy, though having had few runners here, has a decent track record. 28/1

Moodofthemoment. Was on my list for his last but one rules chase, where he made extremely good headway late on to snatch third over an inadequate 2m 4f. Switched stables, comes here on the back of three point-to-point wins. Is bred to stay forever, is going - adaptable, runs for a new stable 20/1
Click to expand...
I have also taken Moodofthemoment for the same reasons that you have
 
Euronymous said:
He's deffo going in my tracker. Blake was the third part of my winning trixie, a very nice win. The form looks very solid, Persico franked Blake's form later in the card as did Portsmouth really at Ascot and EBT's Guard did the same at Yarmouth. That race needs a looking at as well as the winner came from an unpromising possie. Saturday's trix was my biggest win on racing since Corebus won the Guineas. After a couple of really bad flat seasons this has been a very good one thus far
Click to expand...
3 nice winners Euro.
 
Nothing is certain in life but I might have hit a bit of luck..
earlier today my time I backed whistlejacket at 5/2 for the July Stakes


I see the joint fav is missing from the decs it could be my lucky day
 
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Good luck, Reet.

I've just noticed that jockey Christian Howarth has ridden 3 winners in with his last 7 runners. In form, then.

Apprentice jockey Christian Howarth gearing up for Wordsworth ride in Cesarewitch

Apprentice jockey Christian Howarth insists he would be "speechless" if Wordsworth could secure him the biggest success of his career in the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch on the second day of the Dubai Future Champions Festival, Dubai Future Champions Day, at Newmarket on Saturday.
www.sportinglife.com www.sportinglife.com
 
Not a good run from Mutanaseeq.

Another lesson that keep having to re-learn is that if you back moderate horses, they are just not reliable. I thought, on this occasion, where he was so many times a course winner, below his LWR, roght distance, adaptable going-wise, that it was worth it.

Wrong haha.

Lesson learnt again, eh?
 
I give a good squeak to Redredrobin in the 7.00 this evening at Newbury. This mare was on a mark of just 49 a couple seasons ago, then won twice in 2022, then won five times in 2023.

A couple of admittedly low key efforts this season so far, but the season is in full swing now, so I'm hopeful she'll return to her best form before long. At nearly longshot odds of 20/1, I can't let her go unbacked today.

Yes, there's a chance she'll never return to that form from last season, and a long losing run awaits, but on this occasion, I'll take the chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Balmacara was my second-biggest bet of the day and ran better than I could have imagined, pulling 13 lengths clear. Unfortunately some other bandit finished in front of him. I look forward to putting a figure on that form. It looked like quite a performance from the front two on the clock.
Click to expand...

I'm getting very mixed messages from last Saturday's Sandown card.

As I said at the time, City Of Troy's Eclipse did not compare at all well with the other two CD races, both handicaps and both won by 3yos.

Relative to their respective ORs, Blake's race works out by far the fastest.

But the intriguing thing is how much slower the two handicaps make the rest of the card look (leaving aside the 5f race on the diagonal track).

Rather than go through my own figures (which would take too long to explain) these are the Topspeed figures for the card winners compared to their ORs. The broad picture reflects my own ratings:

Horse / OR / TS

Swindon / 84 / 31
Cicero's Gift / 107 / 40
Spiritual / 97 / 54
COT / 124 / 88
Blake / 79 / 84
Persica / 100 / 91

When I did my time analysis of the card the way I usually do, in order to get the time ratings to tie in with the form ratings I found I had to go with a going allowance that pointed to FAST ground, which flies totally in the face of everything we saw unfold before our eyes.

Is it at all possible that the start of the 1m2f races was mis-positioned? I suppose that might be humanly possible but by at least 80 yards???
 
I don't know if I'll get to see the racing today but I've got a few modest bets on.

The Turftrax maps have been showing the final half-mile as being better since last weekend and when it was soft the other day the final half-mile was showing G-S. It's G-S all over just now but the last half-mile might be good(ish) by the time racing starts.

1.50 - I have to stick with Portland here, having backed him at Ascot. I was a bit surprised they’d dropped him in trip there and took it as a sign of confidence in his speed but he was never really up to the gallop and wasn’t given a hard time when it was clear he wasn’t going to be competitive. Of his future entries, only the Voltigeur is at 12f, the rest are at further so this step back up in trip has to be a positive. I’m not suggesting he’s a good thing – far from it – but there are question marks over the favourite and too big a difference between him and Space Legend in the market. It’s as much a combination of hope and value as anything else but the race has been kind to me down the years.

3.00 - It doesn’t look like trainers actively target this race with only Andrew Balding having more than one winner (4) in the last 20 years. If Imperial Guard has been held back for it then 12/1 (as was on Tuesday) could be value. It’s worth a small bet anyway to find out. Two Tribes and Woodhay Wonder (NR) were to the forefront of my thoughts at Ascot in the Holyrood House, with the latter only marginally below form dropped back to five furlongs there. This might be more her bag having proved herself over CD. Only Military holds Group entries but there’s nothing in his CV to suggest he’s up to that level. This is more likely to go to something currently rated in the 90s with a future in the 110s. Last year Quinault won off 90 and is now rated 102, Mill Stream (99/114) was second and Washington Heights (94/113) was fourth. The year before, Lethal Levi won off 85 and went up to 100 last season. Woodhay Wonder (NR) and Imperial Guard will be the main bets. Dorney Lake (Godolphin) who disappointed at Ascot, Elmonjed (Shadwell, NR) and Sergeant Wilko (King Power) represent big outfits but the bookies have them onside. (I've substituted Two Tribes 11/1, 4 pl, my top rated, for WW.)

5.20 - Clover’s comments after Fifty Nifty won first time up suggests the gelding is held in some regard so his defeat next time can maybe be forgiven. It’s possible he’s a fast improving 3yo and Marquand looks a strong booking. A modest win bet with Urban Sprawl, having his first run since being gelded, for some each-way cover will be my play.
 
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