What are you backing Today? Part 2

St Leger - I liked the look of Jan Brueghel last time and half-expect him to go close. Coral and Betfred are the only bookies going three places so I’ve taken it ew at the 4/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tomorrow, Doncaster Cup - Coltrane 11/1 (Hills) - only two places going but the odds look a fair bit too long to me. He’s been beaten an aggregate of nearly 50 lengths since winning the Sagaro (GS) in the spring off 117 but had been beaten 22 lengths the time before that in Dubai. Maybe he just throws in the odd iffy one. I have him top rated overall (RPRs jt-top with 6/1 shot Point Lonsdale) and think he is the one to beat if he can show his form. You pays your money and you takes your chance...
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For three-quarters of the race I was counting my winnings but he just never picked up when the chips were down. I'm afraid he's in decline.
 
Desert Orchid said:
St Leger - I liked the look of Jan Brueghel last time and half-expect him to go close. Coral and Betfred are the only bookies going three places so I’ve taken it ew at the 4/1.
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Looked through the race last night, cannot have Illinois at all. Had perfect track position at York and was getting closed down by King's Gambit and the Haggas horse, bad fav. I've gone with the Beckett filly but see JB as the danger. Negative for both Ballydoyle horses is the lack of Moore. He wins so many races for them they aren't entitled to.
 
Not touching that race but I hope Economics wins. Even though Haggas has fucked me over with Lake Forest again.

Bets Saturday to add to You Got to Me are Have Secret at Chester (ran well enough from a terrible draw at York and was poorly ridden before that at Chepstow). Shite draw again but not too bothered over 10 at this track. Native Warrior in the last at Donny. This track will suit him better than Goodwood and he remains well treated based on his Britannia run.
 
I'm having a go on Kortez Bay in Leopardstowns 5.10.

This colt can keep progressing. If judged on the last run, it was solid effort when fifth in a listed event, with him keeping on at the end. He finished in front of Dunum, while receiving 5lbs that day. Tomorrow Kortez Bay receives another whopping 9lbs off Dunum now back in a handicap, carrying a full stone less altogether, yet his rival Dunum is half the price in the market. I actually think you could argue Kortez Bay is still well handicapped enough to win this on that formline.

The other race of interest for me from a betting point of view is the Portland. As per my post on the ante post thread Rumstar is my main one. I'm not going to let that last run put me away, and I hear the ground is drying up which should suit. Manilla Scouse is still too big for each way purposes with six and seven places knocking about. He needs to return right to his best and then some, but his beating of Dare To Hope does read well, given that horse won the Great St Wilfred.
 
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Euronymous said:
Looked through the race last night, cannot have Illinois at all. Had perfect track position at York and was getting closed down by King's Gambit and the Haggas horse, bad fav. I've gone with the Beckett filly but see JB as the danger. Negative for both Ballydoyle horses is the lack of Moore. He wins so many races for them they aren't entitled to.
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Looks to be loads of pace in this,which will suit Sunway admirably. Was getting there in a strongly run Irish Derby,and again in the KG.
That Soumillion travels is hardly a negative,either.
Happy with the 5/1
 
LUKE said:
Personally I think Rodin should be favourite.
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My summary of the race, written yesterday afternoon:

I’m a wee bit surprised that Auguste Rodin isn’t favourite and 3/1 looks generous. Economics does look like the profile horse, though, but not betting material for me at 7/4. Shin Emperor was third in the Japanese Derby and is entered for the Arc but needs to improve. I backed Royal Rhyme last time in the farcical race at York that was very slowly run and developed into a sprint handicap. He was outspeeded there and this is stronger opposition so I can’t see him bridging the gap in the ratings. A small win bet on Auguste Rodin will do me.
 
reet hard said:
Looks to be loads of pace in this,which will suit Sunway admirably. Was getting there in a strongly run Irish Derby,and again in the KG.
That Soumillion travels is hardly a negative,either.
Happy with the 5/1
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All fair. I was all over Matsuri for the Voltigeur against Illinois (before LA was supp') so with the Irish Derby form I sort of see the angle. May add him in a dutch.
 
Decided Economics is good enough to come back after a rest Auguste Rodin simply can't keep bouncing back which should make this a walk in the park for Economics.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My summary of the race, written yesterday afternoon:

I’m a wee bit surprised that Auguste Rodin isn’t favourite and 3/1 looks generous. Economics does look like the profile horse, though, but not betting material for me at 7/4. Shin Emperor was third in the Japanese Derby and is entered for the Arc but needs to improve. I backed Royal Rhyme last time in the farcical race at York that was very slowly run and developed into a sprint handicap. He was outspeeded there and this is stronger opposition so I can’t see him bridging the gap in the ratings. A small win bet on Auguste Rodin will do me.
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Just realised I forgot to back AR. That's almost like a win :)
 
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