What are you backing Today? Part 2

In the Tingle Creek I've taken 11/4 Edwardstone in the market without Jonbon. He's rated 8lbs higher than Quilixios (6/4 in the market) on ORs and 15lbs higher on RPRs. Quilixios, being a second-season chaser, can improve a good bit but he still has to do it.
 
The bookies are totally at it in the Sandown 2.25.

When I compiled my figures yesterday, the three outsiders were 14/1, 18/1 and 33/1. Kabral Du Mathan was around 3/1 at the time but was taken out during the afternoon.

Now the 14/1 shot is generally 5/1, the 18/1 is now 10/1 and the 33/1 is now 14/1.

Maybe the withdrawal of Altobelli (10/3) is a factor but it still shouldn't account for those shifts.

I have to wonder how much the bookies are paying/threatening oddschecker not to publish the over-rounds at the bottom of each column as it once did but it looks like a huge over-adjustment to me.

On a side issue, I have to conclude Willmount is not off today. It's the only one being pushed out. (To counter that, Unibet remain shortest and they are the stable's sponsors.)
 
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Hi,
First post
2.15 Muss
My Ratings top 2

One More Stroke...half at 3.45 BF and half at BFSP​

Raced over 2m 3f at Catterick so the step back up in distance should not be a problem

Monochromix​

Has been racing over 2m 7f to 3m 2f recently but down to 2m 3f also down to class 4 today

Bet for me today on One more Stroke.
 
Beeley 7.10K
Btn for speed by a useful filly in a stop/start Lingfield lstd latest.
Better pace and stiffer finish should see her home today.
 
Ratings for Me said:
3.20 Hereford

Fearless Action (IRE)​

RFM 15.12
Click to expand...
3:20pm
THE TANT PIS HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 5) (Go North One Man Series Qualifier)

Following the race, Danny McMenamin reported that FEARLESS ACTION (IRE), which was pulled up, weakened quickly from second last fence; the Veterinary Officer examined the gelding during routine testing and had nothing to report.
 
Chel 3.35 - Zain Nights 12/1, 3 places (Sky are going 11/1 and 4 places but they're restricting me to pennies 🤣 🤣 🤣 )

Got bogged down in the big Haydock race last time so I’m going to give it another go here. He has the right kind of profile and his Flat form suggests he has plenty improvement to come. The fav will be hard to beat, obviously, but I reckon there's a lot to like about Zain Nights.
 
150 Cheltenham
Looks a cracker on paper and just about anything could win it.
Il ridoto did me a good turn last time.with madara and fugitif being eyecatchers and with that run under their belts and a weight concession one expects them to turn the tables but I'm not sure.
I have done STAGE STAR 11/2 who is a class horse
And ew on gemirande 12/1 getting 26lb from ss.
What puts me off Il Ridoto is Olive Nicholls riding.
 
I'm dutching Tullyhill and Asian Master in the Beginners that opens the Punchy card. Majborough is just too short.

Fear the fav but Destroytheevidence is worth a go in the 1240 at Cheltenham. He holds a couple of these via Chepstow running earlier in the season.
 
Looking forward to the Massey-Ferguson today (December Gold Cup or whatever it now is). It is, if anything, even better than the Mackeson last month won by Il Ridoto.

For what they're worth - "Not much" I hear you cry - these are my figures and thoughts as written on Thursday with the then prices.

Horse​
Weight​
OR​
MON
174​
Notes​
RPR​
BO​
Stage Star​
12-0 ​
162 ​
177​
169 ​
7/1​
Fugitif​
11-2 ​
150 ​
175​
169 ​
11/2​
Madara​
10-6 ​
140 ​
173​
p nov​
165 ​
11/2​
Ga Law​
11-8 ​
156 ​
172​
166 ​
7/1​
Grandeur d'Ame​
10-2 ​
136 ​
172​
p nov​
165 ​
9/1​
In Excelsis Deo​
10-8 ​
142 ​
171​
p​
165 ​
10/1​
Gemirande​
10-2 ​
136 ​
171​
g
[175? g]​
170 ​
12/1​
Le Patron​
11-5 ​
153 ​
169​
+p nov​
165 ​
14/1​
Il Ridoto​
11-1 ​
149 ​
169​
164 ​
7/1​
Sure Touch​
10-8 ​
142 ​
169​
p​
164 ​
25/1​
Guard Your Dreams​
10-2 ​
136 ​
168​
+ nov1
{178 Hd}​
165 ​
18/1​

I took 25/1 Guard Your Dreams earlier in the week. It won the International Hurdle here three years ago and would have been placed in the Aintree Hurdle after that when rated 147. Epatante won and he’d have been giving her 7lbs. He must have had a nasty one as he was then off for nearly two years and did very little last season in three runs but he now finds himself potentially thrown in if he can translate that form in what is now his first season over fences and the yard isn’t one to mess when it comes to a race like this. I suspect they’ve had it in mind since the start of the season, being campaigned to keep his mark close to his lowered hurdles one. There’s now been money for him so I’m hopeful. Il Ridoto and Fugitif set a very good level and if anything can improve past them they will go very close. I’ll probably go with Stage Star in the belief that Nicholls has had this mapped out for him for ages. I can see him making just about all, he’s a slick jumper and is the class horse in the race. Four of his top five performances [on RPRs] have been here.

(I've backed Stage Star.)
 
With the approach ‘never back a favourite and always back each way’

Chelt 1.13 Realisation 9-2, 1.50 GA Law 8-1, Guard Your Dreams 16-1

Don 3.15 Deploy To Spy 6-1

Newc 1.57 Balranald 13-2

*Good luck people
 
Tanlic said:
The Kalooki Kid 4/1 is overpriced.

The short priced fav wont find things as easy this time as he did when getting lumps of weight from his 3 rivals
Click to expand...
Good shout.

Had a Stumpton/Bucksy Des Espeires double yesterday so used KK in a double with Peaky Boy to protect my Destroytheevidence bet. No good.

I can't believe the Curtis horse won that. Had no chance on form imo.

The Venetia horse from Donny needs further, keeping him onside going forward
 
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