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What are you backing Today? Part 2

Probably wont be around tomorrow until late morning early afternoon UK time, so will post tomorrows dabble now.

05/06/25

LING 3:50
INVINCIBLE DUKE 7/1 EW

03/05/25 GOOD 4:33 INVINCIBLE DUKE
Very late foal. Trapped on inner. 1st time blinkers. No room, jockey poised to press button. Not a rapid turn of foot, but could have run on resolutely for a good 1.5F if getting a clear run. Was last to act. Only previous runs are 3 AW attempts (2 Kemp / 1 Sout).
Obviously more to come, especially considering it's late foaling. Didn't seem green and blinkers 'might' have brought about improvement, as could being gelded.

CONCLUSION - Shouldn't have any trouble getting alongside Hot Property to sit in behind Transparent and Threatening and can make a move on the decent to be towards the head of affairs turning in (maybe take it up at the 3 pole), if they haven't gone quick enough down the back straight. Jockey looked to have a good hold of it at Goodwood LTO, came close to fighting for it's head when the pace slowed for a few furlongs. A little worried about Jack Dace riding. A repeat of the Goodwood run should see it go close. Also inclined to think Lingfields surface, topography and short run in, will suit better than Kempton or Southwell.
Negatives would be a possible dawdling early pace and Jockey skill to ride according to that pace. Also the fact it may simply pefer turf. Tracking over from it's draw is negligible and I'll side with the blinkers and gelding operation being such large positives that explain away previous poor AW form/potential turf preference). Will keep fingers crossed for Jockey pace judgement.
 
A couple tomorrow at double digits. Half stake going down now and 2nd half on the BOG in the morning.

3.30 Uttoxeter - Clondaw Royale 16/1
7.55 Ffos Las - Inspector Lynley 14/1
 
Dingo Bingo said:
Probably wont be around tomorrow until late morning early afternoon UK time, so will post tomorrows dabble now.

05/06/25

LING 3:50
INVINCIBLE DUKE 7/1 EW

03/05/25 GOOD 4:33 INVINCIBLE DUKE
Very late foal. Trapped on inner. 1st time blinkers. No room, jockey poised to press button. Not a rapid turn of foot, but could have run on resolutely for a good 1.5F if getting a clear run. Was last to act. Only previous runs are 3 AW attempts (2 Kemp / 1 Sout).
Obviously more to come, especially considering it's late foaling. Didn't seem green and blinkers 'might' have brought about improvement, as could being gelded.
Click to expand...

I have ID and Gallant from my tracker running in this and the price differential (ID is 10/1 now and Gallant is close to evens) is ridiculous. I've backed the Beckett horse and I may put Gallant in a double with something but I'd need 11/8 minimum - waiting for a price sometimes works with these SPT's I managed to get 15/8 about Boyfriend yesterday at Notts (double with Lazzat to protect my Inisherin possie at Ascot). Patience is key.
 
Euronymous said:
I have ID and Gallant from my tracker running in this and the price differential (ID is 10/1 now and Gallant is close to evens) is ridiculous. I've backed the Beckett horse and I may put Gallant in a double with something but I'd need 11/8 minimum - waiting for a price sometimes works with these SPT's I managed to get 15/8 about Boyfriend yesterday at Notts (double with Lazzat to protect my Inisherin possie at Ascot). Patience is key.
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Agree patience is key. Backed Boyfriend LTO after waiting nigh on a year since noting it. Not bothering today, just due to the price. I've had one bet under 5's the last couple of years and that lost.

Straya (runs at Hamilton today) is one I've half followed off a cliff at tasty prices. Strange action, seems one paced, often joins them after line. Is bred for todays kind of trip. I ended up with notes suggesting 1M6F on the AW (in time). Problem being, if they keep racing it and it keeps losing, it's going to find itself so low it'll never actually get into another race. Currently 15/2, cut in ground up Hamiltons hill, I just can't bring myself to back it again. Owes me around 1500, so going to be painful to watch.

Edit - Oh of course. Boyfriend ran yesterday. I had decided no bet from an early stage. Often get confused with the time difference. Pleased it won for you. It's off my list, next time I update.
 
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Christ I'd forgotten about him, took him off the tracker after York. I might do, I think he does need a mile now but it's a busy old day tomorrow I've already punted Botanical in the 10f handicap (I love top weights in that race) Revoir in the Oaks Tribal Rhythm in the race before Stanage.

I've got four trackers out on Saturday as well. Important weekend.
 
I've written down Revoir aswell, so it's good to have an appraisal.

I can't catch them Obaid horses right. They really do win their fair share of prizes, but I never seem to be on when they do. I've written down Ecureuil Secret in that race. He's got form with cut in the ground, and I'd be hoping for significant improvement after his castration.

A token selection really but I hope yours wins if mine doesn't anyway. Best of luck. Apart from the Derby I'm finding tomorrow more interesting for a bet than Saturday.
 
06/06/25

THIR 3:00
ROUNDHAY PARK 16/1 EW

26/04/25 HAYD 3:50 ROUNDHAY PARK
Ran a cracking race from low stall while sticking to far side. Is a 10yo now, but is weighted to win and seemingly retains ability. Time of race was about par. Would prefer a touch easier ground (GDsft). Did have a claimer on. Has a liking for Ripon and York. Has won at Donc and elsewhere, but Ripon and York look to be favourite courses. Maybe a travel thing. Entered to run at Donc on 03/05. Possibly worthy of an EW if ground not too fast and pace is OK.

CONCLUSION - Is dropping down into a class 6 for the first time and is on a career low of 63. There seems to be some more rain forecast tonight and tomorrow morning, which will help a lot. Was a touch too fast for it LTO at Catterick, despite divots flying about. The breather mid race wouldn't have helped either. One More Dream in that race didn't get motoring until the 1/2 furlong pole. I see it finished 3rd yesterday at Ripon (yet to see race, may have been unlucky?).
Canon's House did it well enough at Carlisle LTO OVER 5F, but looked to outstay them all on sticky ground up the hill over the minimum. Those in behind were almost in slow motion during the FF. Might not find things so easy over 6F without the hill to climb. I'm calling a false FAV on that one.
I seem to have found myself poking around in the gutter and will probably ignore One More Dream regardless.
Not the best course for Roundhay Park, but is kind of local (in case it does have travel issues). There does look a fair chance of plenty of rain between now and racetime, probably enough to change it to GDsft, maybe a little slower. If Roundhay Park can't run a good race on rain softned ground in this, then it'll maybe get one last chance at Ripon, before retirement. 16/1 just looks silly.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I've written down Revoir aswell, so it's good to have an appraisal.

I can't catch them Obaid horses right. They really do win their fair share of prizes, but I never seem to be on when they do. I've written down Ecureuil Secret in that race. He's got form with cut in the ground, and I'd be hoping for significant improvement after his castration.

A token selection really but I hope yours wins if mine doesn't anyway. Best of luck. Apart from the Derby I'm finding tomorrow more interesting for a bet than Saturday.
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Splitting stakes between Ecureuil and Botanical, there's a first for everything, if I can back an Obaid winner.
 
I have to do Mirsky in the 3.35. Got 11/2 about him this morning. I had him marked down last season as a dark horse to keep an eye on and this may be the season where he puts it all together. I think he might still be ahead of the handicapper here and looks like he may be aimed at the Golden Mile later on.

Been heavily supported today, which I tend not to like but hey-ho, I've backed him.
 
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yorick said:
I have to do Mirsky in the 3.35. Got 11/2 about him this morning. I had him marked down last season as a dark horse to keep an eye on and this may be the season where he puts it all together. I think he may still be ahead of the handicapper here and looks like he may be aimed at the Golden Mile later on.

Been heavily supported today, which I tend not to like but hey-ho, I've backed him.
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So it was your money then! (4.35 race)
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I've written down Revoir aswell, so it's good to have an appraisal.

I can't catch them Obaid horses right. They really do win their fair share of prizes, but I never seem to be on when they do. I've written down Ecureuil Secret in that race. He's got form with cut in the ground, and I'd be hoping for significant improvement after his castration.
Click to expand...
 


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