What are you backing Today? Part 2

Dawaleeb 3.20R ew 9/1 B365
Went too quick in front, and didn't last home in the well run Spring Mile. This drop in class & sharper track should suit better.
 
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Symbolize 3.55N - 3rd in last season's Jersey, disappointed since and gelded as a consequence.Goes well fresh and on today's ground. 12/1 in places.
 
Finding myself unable to resist a little dart at old favourite Benatar who runs today off a mark of 134 (2.05 Cheltenham). A decent run last time over a trip that would have been plenty sharp enough against a decent Skelton horse who’s now rated 144. Obviously comes with risks attached but I reckon 8/1 is a decent price
 
viking said:
Finding myself unable to resist a little dart at old favourite Benatar who runs today off a mark of 134 (2.05 Cheltenham). A decent run last time over a trip that would have been plenty sharp enough against a decent Skelton horse who’s now rated 144. Obviously comes with risks attached but I reckon 8/1 is a decent price
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I like the Wood Ditton from a watching perspective.

Sometimes it's totally duff but occasionally it throws up a decent one and some of the very top trainers are represented today.

With no bets planned for today I've decided I might as well throw a couple of darts at this one so I've taken Ironside (15/2) and Peter The Great (12/1).

Ironside carries the first colours while the favourite carries the second. I've no idea what the colour arrangements are but I'm guessing Buick rides the favourite 'cos it's trained by Appleby so is there significance in the other wearing the first colours?

Gosden is also faithful to Nicky Mackay and I'm always fascinated when he's given a ride as he strikes me as more of a 'team man' behind the scenes. His job today might be to give the horse a nice 'educational' but he also has a decent strike rate overall (around 20%).
 
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Just had a bet on Teruntum Star because I always back him and the jockey just fell off...
 
Last night I took 3/1 Amighwar in the 2.15 Newbury but I also took it at 14/1 ante-post for the Chester Cup as I feel he might just run away with today's race and he'd only pick up a 3lb penalty for the big race. Unfortunately the bookies going 14/1 are restricting me so I had to settle for a smaller bet than I wanted.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Last night I took 3/1 Amighwar in the 2.15 Newbury but I also took it at 14/1 ante-post for the Chester Cup as I feel he might just run away with today's race and he'd only pick up a 3lb penalty for the big race. Unfortunately the bookies going 14/1 are restricting me so I had to settle for a smaller bet than I wanted.
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Hard to say if it would have changed the result but I thought Crowley was just a tad over-confident there as he picked the leaders up. A look across and a slight easing of the riding handed the winner the initiative and he was never getting it back. It was a big, unexpected step up by the winner but there seemed no fluke about it. They drew as far away from the third as I'd hoped the selection would.

The winner probably won't make the cut for the Chester Cup even with his 3lb penalty but I took 20s anyway. Amighwar has been clipped a bit.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hard to say if it would have changed the result but I thought Crowley was just a tad over-confident there as he picked the leaders up. A look across and a slight easing of the riding handed the winner the initiative and he was never getting it back. It was a big, unexpected step up by the winner but there seemed no fluke about it. They drew as far away from the third as I'd hoped the selection would.

The winner probably won't make the cut for the Chester Cup even with his 3lb penalty but I took 20s anyway. Amighwar has been clipped a bit.
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Didnt want a penalty DO.
 
Have taken B365's 6/1 Danyah for tomorrow's Spring Cup, not a big price for a 22 rnr cavalry charge but I reckon him a good thing. 4th in the Lincoln, in what looked no more than a pipe-opener behind the cosy, family owned, winner. I doubt it's coincidence they also have the top weight in this.
 
Outsider said:
Didnt want a penalty DO.
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I reckon they could easily have run it third or fourth if that was the case, Outsider. I think it was trying yesterday. Just a very slight misjudgment from Crowley in trying to win a touch cleverly. The winner had no right on form to be there and maybe Crowley thought he'd pick him up easily enough.

Cost me yesterday but I can at least take some positives out of it. I got 3/1 about one that ended up 6/4 and the horse didn't do its Chester chances any harm, and I've got 14/1 for that.
 
reet hard said:
Have taken B365's 6/1 Danyah for tomorrow's Spring Cup, not a big price for a 22 rnr cavalry charge but I reckon him a good thing. 4th in the Lincoln, in what looked no more than a pipe-opener behind the cosy, family owned, winner. I doubt it's coincidence they also have the top weight in this.
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With you.
 
barjon said:
With you.
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Huge respect for Danyah in that race.

My synopsis from elsewhere yesterday (relates to my table of ratings for the race):

Oh This Is Us probably ran to his mark at Newmarket during the week and sets the standard for this but he’s vulnerable to improvers. Raaeq’s rating might have been achieved in very soft ground but he quickened smartly on fast ground at Sandown so I wouldn’t set any store by it. He is the one to beat even if Crowley wears the first colours but it might just be a huge tip for Danyah. Revich’s best form is at Chester and they’re probably trying to get a pound or two off him before he returns there next month. Costello puts me off Power Of Darkness. Johan looks just as good on turf as on the all-weather so I’m happy to accept his rating at face value and Doyle looks a good booking. Nugget has some appeal for a short list but the booking of Moore will probably see him shorter than he should be. The real dark one is Troll Peninsula. It’s not hard to imagine Varian being keen to exploit a mark in the 80s and RPRs go high with his Kempton win. This is a huge step up in class but if the horse has genuine pretensions to Class 2 handicaps or better he needs to be winning this off 88. Selecting him goes beyond mere form ratings but I think he will win easily.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The real dark one is Troll Peninsula. It’s not hard to imagine Varian being keen to exploit a mark in the 80s and RPRs go high with his Kempton win. This is a huge step up in class but if the horse has genuine pretensions to Class 2 handicaps or better he needs to be winning this off 88. Selecting him goes beyond mere form ratings but I think he will win easily.
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Looks like he's been taken out this morning.

I'm going to apply a perverse bit of logic and stick with Raaeq for the main bet. The Hunt Cup (maybe even the Magnet Cup) will be worth far more than this and that might be the race for Danyah. Shadwell has history with this these types. I'll put a longshot on that thread.
 
Raaeq did me a couple of good turns last year, so I hope he runs well (but not quite well enough :))
 
I don’t much like days like today when I’ve got far too many horses under active consideration (8). Back them all and I over commit by miles, whittle them down and hope that I don’t cast off the winners.
 
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