What are you backing Today?

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Agreed Heartbreak City looks well clear of these but maybe too short and I'll look elsewhere. Willie Mullins seems reasonably bullish that Allblak Des Places will run a good race and 16/1 with Paddy Power paying 6 places will do for me


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Well done yet again, PB, top stuff!

14:40 Leopardstown - Stellar Notion

(Tough-looking handicap but selection should appreciate the drop in trip, and the ground conditions too. Will be very tough to pass).
 
Heartbreak City. Bad run? Or an over rated horse?

Only leg to let me down in my lucky 15. Can't complain, got lucky with A Toi Phil in the race before.
 
Golden Spear could become quite expensive to follow. There's got to be a big one in him.

I'm not sure O'Regan gave him a slap at any point during that!
 
TheBear said:
Golden Spear could become quite expensive to follow. There's got to be a big one in him.

I'm not sure O'Regan gave him a slap at any point during that!
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While not wishing to sound wise after the event, I always felt today wasn't the day for Heartbreak City.
But your right Bear, Either one or both of Flaming Spear and Heartbreak City will win a big h'cap this spring, it's just a question of where and when
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.40 Newcastle-Lady Buttons @ 4-1 [Bet Bright]
2.00 Wolverhampton-American Patrol @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
2.50 Bangor-Whiskey Chaser @ 9-4 [Race Bets]
3.10 Newcastle-Fayette County @ 9-2 [Boylesports]
3.20 Bangor-Play The Ace @ 11-2 [William Hill]
3.40 Newcastle-Perseid @ 11-4 [Bet Victor]
4.00 Wolverhampton-Ban Shoof @ 8-1 [Ladbrokes]
4.10 Newcastle-Nomoreblackjack @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
4.20 Bangor-Only A Tipple @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
5.00 Wolverhampton-Fastnet Blast @ 11-2 [Bet Bright]
 
Bangor 14:20

No idea why Timoteo is favourite here. He was beaten miles in the Summit, and then beaten again when receiving a stack of weight in a moderate Leicester handicap, where he ran off 120. I can only imagine he was an expensive purchase, and therefore has something of a reputation before him, but at 13/8, I'm willing to take him on.

The others near the top of the market all finished behind Aislabie last time out; taking in Dinsdale, Cry Wolf and Force of Forces. That didn't look up to much as a race either, imo, and I will instead take my chance with Ochos Rios, who finished within 5L of easy winner Defi Du Seuil when last seen in October. True, the only horse to have done anything for the form is DDS himself, but even if Ochos Rios was massively flattered by his proximity to the winner, I don't think this race is going to take very-much winning at all, and any horse that can run to around 120 here, is going to go very close. If DDS is a 150 animal as I think he is, then Ochos Rios can hopefully get thereabouts.

I've taken 14/1 with B365 to test the theory.
 
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Nice write-up Grassy. I'd be worried about the drift though - it's 22 on the machine. Trainer doesn't have many big priced winners either.
 
Cheers for the nod, Benny....I might keep chipping away, and keep my fingers crossed.........defeat won't break the bank - stakes are not big
 
3.10 - Newcastle - No Planning. 3 pts win. Available at 3/1. (Nap)
Only six runners but a victory for any one of them wouldn't be a surprise. Preference is for No Planning who has now fallen one pound below the mark from which he was successful over an extended three miles at Ayr last March. He ran as though needing his reappearance at Kelso in October and was still travelling well within himself when falling in a very good Listed Handicap over C/D in November. His mid-race fall was before the race had began to develop but there were signs over 20 furlongs here last time out that he's on his way back to peak form. That seven and a quarter length third was over a trip probably too short nowadays and the two that finished in front of him are lightly raced, potentially useful Chasers. He has got competitive with better horses than he meets here in the past and track/trip and ground will suit. He has gained his ten victories when leading or racing prominently and he should have no trouble adopting those tactics in a small field which is not overly blessed with pace. The yard are in good form and the jockey was on board when No Planning last won.

3.40 - Newcastle - Captain Clayton. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
Several of these come into the race on the back of good efforts but it may be worth taking them on with bigger priced Captain Clayton. He is now into veteran status but he has obviously had his problems because he has only made it the track on seventeen occasions. He was absent for almost two years before his reappearance at Uttoxeter in September and he probably hadn't reached peak fitness in his two starts. That said there were encouraging signs over an extended two miles here last time out. He looked likely to drop way when he was well adrift at halfway but he made some very good late gains to get within thirteen and half lengths of the winner and only just over three lengths from making the frame. The step back up in trip here will suit and the assessor has kindly dropped him a further two pounds to a mark of 108, two pounds below his last winning mark. If Captain Clayton still retains his winning ability he can start to repay his Trainers/Owners patience.

4.10 - Newcastle - Halcyon Days. 3 pts win. Available at 100/30 (Nb)
 
Grasshopper said:
Bangor 14:20

No idea why Timoteo is favourite here. He was beaten miles in the Summit, and then beaten again when receiving a stack of weight in a moderate Leicester handicap, where he ran off 120. I can only imagine he was an expensive purchase, and therefore has something of a reputation before him, but at 13/8, I'm willing to take him on.

The others near the top of the market all finished behind Aislabie last time out; taking in Dinsdale, Cry Wolf and Force of Forces. That didn't look up to much as a race either, imo, and I will instead take my chance with Ochos Rios, who finished within 5L of easy winner Defi Du Seuil when last seen in October. True, the only horse to have done anything for the form is DDS himself, but even if Ochos Rios was massively flattered by his proximity to the winner, I don't think this race is going to take very-much winning at all, and any horse that can run to around 120 here, is going to go very close. If DDS is a 150 animal as I think he is, then Ochos Rios can hopefully get thereabouts.

I've taken 14/1 with B365 to test the theory.
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I think Dinsdale could be the one, I agree Timoteo is vulnerable.
 
Please keep Leicester on tomorrow and please bring some rain. Cresswell Breeze lively outsider in the 2:20 provided there's cut in the ground. The dead 8 runners is an added incentive, although I'm confident enough to punt her win-only depending on prices. She's got bit and pieces of form, will have been freshened up after a two month break.
 
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With gigilo taking a sabbatical thought i'd put up 1 or 2 at Southwell, don't expect prices to be smashed in as sure Giggsys followers won't be lumping on these!:lol:
2.10 Scott Dixons horses seem to be coming back to form after a slow start to the AW campaign but with 33/1 shot Dr Red Eye quickly followed by Wimboldsley and some nice priced place horses since probably worth seeking out some value on his tmr.
Spowarticus has run 2 decent races recently and wasn't far behind Treaty of Rome and Musnt Grumble lto, game front runner, has a 7lbs pull with Treaty of Rome and 5lbs pull with Musn't Grumble although the latter has a decent 7lbs claimer on top which should in theory keep him in front of Spowarticus. He ran some very decent races last season getting placed from marks in mid 60s not beaten far and has dropped to 54 during Dixons poor spell. Should beat stablemates Wimboldsley and Cadeax Pearl and looks a real player at about 10/1 win and place.

Come on Percy looks to have a very solid chance in the 1st race, a good 2nd behind Seaview over 7fs here, best run so far and had nto winner here Log off just behind him in 3rd, don't think there's any Seaviews in this race and the extra 1f should be in its favour. 7/2 looks a fair price, more money for A Baldings tmr could see it lengthen into an EW price as 3rd fav.
 
PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.40 Newcastle-Lady Buttons @ 4-1 [Bet Bright]:)
2.00 Wolverhampton-American Patrol @ 5-1 [Bet 365]:)
2.50 Bangor-Whiskey Chaser @ 9-4 [Race Bets]
3.10 Newcastle-Fayette County @ 9-2 [Boylesports]
3.20 Bangor-Play The Ace @ 11-2 [William Hill]
3.40 Newcastle-Perseid @ 11-4 [Bet Victor]
4.00 Wolverhampton-Ban Shoof @ 8-1 [Ladbrokes]
4.10 Newcastle-Nomoreblackjack @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
4.20 Bangor-Only A Tipple @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
5.00 Wolverhampton-Fastnet Blast @ 11-2 [Bet Bright]
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Profit of 1pt...two 2nds
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.40 Southwell-Come On Percy @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
2.10 Southwell-Satchville Flyer @ 8-1 [Bet 365]
2.20 Leicester-La Vaticane @ 7-4 [Paddy Power]
2.30 Wetherby-Fingerontheswitch @ 3-1 [Ladbrokes]
3.50 Leicester-Hill Fort @ 9-1 [Paddy Power]
 
Marble said:
Please keep Leicester on tomorrow and please bring some rain. Cresswell Breeze lively outsider in the 2:20 provided there's cut in the ground. The dead 8 runners is an added incentive, although I'm confident enough to punt her win-only depending on prices. She's got bit and pieces of form, will have been freshened up after a two month break.
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Waiting to see if Leicester goes ahead, need there to be 8 runners so will wait until nearer the off. Even with the good ground I reckon she could out-run tasty odds. A reverse forecast with the jolly for cover might be worth it.
 
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Captain Clayton returned place money when he was beaten less than a length at Newcastle. No Planning (4th) and Halcyon Days (3rd) were disappointing at the same track.


Today's Selections:


3.30 - Wetherby - Monbeg River. 3 pts win. Available at 9/2. (Nap)
Dartford Warbler and Future Gilded head the market for this Handicap Chase but preference is for Monbeg River who has run well in two competitive races at Cheltenham and Aintree recently. His fifth of nine, beaten just under five lengths over two miles at Cheltenham on his penultimate start is strong form in the context of this race and he looked like taking a hand in the finish when brought down four out over 20 furlongs at Aintree last time out. This doesn't look any better than that affair and he runs from the same mark. He is unexposed over this sort of trip but he is bred to be suited by it and has proven himself in ground from good through to heavy. He is partnered by Henry Brooke whose record in completions on the horse reads 11222.


3.50 - Leicester - Hill Fort. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.
Zante enters handicap company after improving with each of his three starts in Juvenile/Maiden/Novice company. He will need to improve to win from his opening mark but he is with a good yard so it's entirely possible and they are more than capable of producing one fit enough after a significant absence. However it may be worth opposing him with topweight Hill Fort. He hasn't troubled the judge in four starts this season but he improved from race to race on his first outings and may have found 19 furlongs in heavy ground at Chepstow a bit too much stamina wise. His midfield finish in a much better race at Cheltenham on his penultimate start was a decent effort and the Assessor has dropped him five pounds since. That leaves him two pounds below the mark from he was an eight length winner last April and this race is arguably easier than even that one. He is tactically versatile and, although the yard have had a lean time this campaign, their horses have a profitable 22% strike rate (4 from 22) here in recent seasons.


4.20 - Leicester - Actlikeacountess. 1.5 pts win. Available at 7/1.
 
Marble said:
Cresswell Breeze lively outsider in the 2:20 provided there's cut in the ground. The dead 8 runners is an added incentive, although I'm confident enough to punt her win-only depending on prices. She's got bit and pieces of form, will have been freshened up after a two month break.
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Entered in a Mares Hurdle on Friday at Huntingdon. Should be better for todays run and definitely worth considering in future races this season.
 
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I wonder what the al weather crew think of the handicap at Lingfield tomorrow? Two new arrivals into this country having their first starts, also a strong looking favourite. Winterlude is a better horse at this place. I reckon he could go well off 95. He's been well supported in the early betting, we'll see if that continues to tomorrow.
 
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PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.40 Southwell-Come On Percy @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
2.10 Southwell-Satchville Flyer @ 8-1 [Bet 365]
2.20 Leicester-La Vaticane @ 7-4 [Paddy Power]
2.30 Wetherby-Fingerontheswitch @ 3-1 [Ladbrokes]:)
3.50 Leicester-Hill Fort @ 9-1 [Paddy Power]
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Loss of 1pt
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.25 Catterick-Floramoss @ 2-1 [Skybet]
2.05 Lingfield-Tell A Story @ 7-2 [Bet 365]
2.30 Catterick-Nietzsche @ 7-4 [Betfair Sports]
3.15 Lingfield-Winterlude @ 8-1 [Bet Bright]
3.25 Ludlow-Un Prophete @ 10-3 [Bet Victor]
4.00 Ludlow-Toberdowney @ 5-2 [Boylesports]
4.10 Catterick-Snowed In @ 5-2 [Bet 365]
 
Hill Fort (Leicester) wasn't helped by a bad mistake three from home when making his move yesterday and a combination of trip and ground seemed to stretch Monbeg River who finished third at Wetherby. The day ended in profit when Actlikeacountess was a fortunate winner at Leicester.

Today's Selections:

1.55 - Catterick:
Suzy's Music. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.
What A Joke. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 18/1.
There has been early money for several of these but it may be worth chancing a couple at bigger prices. Suzy's Music hasn't had much racing under rules for a nine year old and, although she was well beaten when finishing third of the five runners at Wetherby last time out, that was her reappearance after a seven month break and she could strip fitter here. A former Irish Point winner, she was the winner of an extended 21 furlong Novice Handicap on her debut over fences from just a one pound lower mark last February and subsequently finished placed three times from slightly higher in the handicap. Her close third at Hexham over three miles in a slightly better affair looks solid in the context of this race and she represents an Irish yard who have made their raids to this track worthwhile. In recent seasons they have won with three of their eleven entries (27% strike rate) here returning a l.s.p of £28. What A Joke has been kept on the go through the Summer and matched the best of his hurdling form when finishing sixth, beaten just under seven lengths, on his Chase debut at Towcester. That was a better race than this one but, dropping back to this grade last time out, he stumbled and got rid of his jockey after the fourth flight. He hasn't had many chances at trips of three miles or more but he is a former Irish Point winner and it could illicit the improvement he needs to get competitive from a mark which is just one pound higher than at Towcester.

2.15 - Ludlow:
Twirling Magnet. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
Ulimatum Du Roy. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
This is competitive but slight preference is for Twirling Magnet and Ultimatum Du Roy. Twirling Magnet is into veteran status now, and this eleven year old is beginning to show his age, but he is at least getting some respite from the handicapper and that is enabling him to take on lesser opponents. He was disappointing at Warwick last time out but the ground was probably softer than ideal there and he certainly wouldn't be out of this based on his ten and half length fourth of nine over three miles at Sandown on his penultimate start. He was outpaced going into the latter stages on good ground but he has fallen six pounds in the weights since then and this is a significant drop in grade. Ultimatum Du Roy is much better suited to single number fields and may have been feeling the effects of four races in a six week period in a ten runner race last time out at Market Rasen. Prior to that he was a winner over three miles here and followed that with a second over 25 furlongs at Wincanton, both in single number fields. He has won from two pounds higher in the weights than he runs from here and Kielan Woods, who was on board for his win here and at Wincanton, returns.

4.20 - Lingfield - No Refund. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1.

5.15 - Newcastle - Spinwheel. 2 pts win. Available at 5/1.
 
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