What are you backing Today?

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I will put this up now as I think it has a very good chance. I might forget so best to stick it up now.

Friday
Beverley 3.10 Strawberry Jack

Strikes me as a very well handicapped horse and I've waited for it to run.
 
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A bet for tomorrow before the paper tipsters start going over things. In the John Smiths cup I was torn between 2 horses really, Good Birthday and Sinjaari They were both closely linked when they bumped into one at Newbury last year in the Shape of Headman when he was rated 95 at the time and within 2 more runs he was up to 112 so obviously didn't have much chance of stopping him off such a lowly mark. Sinjarri looked the better of the 2 that day seeing the trip out much better than the Balding runner but I was originally going to come down on the side of Good Birthday anyway as he has race fitness on his side. However he's been drawn in the car park in 22 which isn't an absolute killer here at York but having a claiming jockey on combined with a bad draw just tells me its not going to be his day. Sinjaari's other run after that at 10f came at Goodwood where he didn't really get the run of the race and the Jockey dropped the reigns as he was making his challenge. Providing he's race fit and he's not any the worse for being gelded I think he stands a solid chance. 14/1 is a cracking price it may be one to play win only under the circumstances. Good Birthday may keep drifting with the draw he's got and if he gets much bigger he's probably worth an e/w play himself to try and overcome it.
 
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I have looked at his profile and definately following you on Sinjaari, Danny.

He has had the gelding operation which may have helped him. We will find out how much tomorrow.
 
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Marb said:
I will put this up now as I think it has a very good chance. I might forget so best to stick it up now.

Friday
Beverley 3.10 Strawberry Jack

Strikes me as a very well handicapped horse and I've waited for it to run.
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I haven't seen it but apparently had an awful start badly impeded but ran on strongly for third place from the back of the field.

It's in the tracker so next time out is probably the day.
 
Quite Like Sky Defender (22/1 5places) for the John Smith's Cup. Ostensibly poorly drawn but - like Danny - I think the draw is not as important as it used to be. Improving 4yo whose jockey knows the track well, he might take an early position and tough it out well.
Desert Icon (12/1 PP)has to be a live danger though, as the 10lb rise for his recent saunter doesn't nearly do him justice, imo.
 
York 3:05

Moss Gill improved stones after being gelded at the end of 2018, doing most of his best work progressing through some top class handicaps. Upped in class to listed level again but not without reason so at 11/2 this is the nap of the day tomorrow.
 
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Thought he needs a dab of rain tbh Marb looked much better on his win on softer ground at York than when behind Que Amoro the time before on faster going although he did get going a bit late in the day on that occasion. I spent a fair bit of time trying to work this out and didn't really get anywhere. The only thought that crossed my mind is that Que Amoro won't get it all his own way upfront most of these like to front run and El Astronaute is a rocket Major jumbo likes to get busy early as well. The 3 that possibly benefit are Tarboosh, Moss gill and Equilateral and I'd probably side with Equilateral as when the pace is cranked up to 11 the fastest horse usually wins and he holds the biggest figure for his run behind Battash. Somehow though I just have a feeling it won't pan out for him so not a very strong selection. If there weren't so many front runners I'd probably side with Que amoro as there is nothing not to like about him really. A good little contest and it'll be an interesting watch. Good luck with Moss Gill mate if he doesn't quite pull if off tomorrow I'd certainly give him another chance on a softer surface he looked very good indeed that day.
 
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Apologies probably should of just done this in one post. In case I forget between now and then In the 3.05 at York on Sunday I quite like a horse Shades of Blue I was eyeing it up as a value poke for the Hackwood stakes tomorrow but its been scrubbed and goes here instead. It's another one that comes from the Kings stand stakes. At half way looked like she was going to finish last, she was one of the first off the bridle. Although never getting involved with the main group of 4 she was 2nd best of the rest just finishing close up to Glass Slippers, the way she kept going makes me think she'll relish the step back up in trip on Sunday. She'd got close to Glass Slippers at Longchamp over 5f towards the back end of last season before flopping behind the same horse in the Prix de l'Abbaye on softer ground showing she's more than capable of mixing it up with a genuine Grp1 performer. The drop in class and the step up in trip are both big positives and at 14/1 generally atm looks a fair bet although wouldn't want too much rain between now and then.

The Hackwood stakes that she skipped doesn't look that strong of a race tbh but Cox has Tis Marvellous entered there so perhaps he was just thinking send one to each event. Tis Marvellous is a horse also from the King Stand form line. There is a general feeling that Tis marvellous is best at Ascot and that's probably fair comment but I keep thinking that one of these days things will just drop right for him and he'll bang in a big performance somewhere else. 16/1 is a big price for him tomorrow really amongst this lot but its probably a bit of value with a side of frustration once more. He was decent enough at Sandown last time without the best use being made of him by the jockey. I can't help but have a few quid on the Cox and Kirby e/w double and try to save myself Sunday's stake money :)


Best of luck chaps.
 
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I put up Shine So Bright last week in the July Cup at ridiculously long odds in the belief it was a duff race, which I believe the result bore out, but it didn't run due to the ground. It reappears at Newbury today in the lesser Hackwood Stakes but its much-improved chances are reflected in its much more sober price of 8/1 tops. I've taken it ew at 15/2 to the extra place.
 
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In the John Smiths Cup I've gone in heavily on Desert Icon 14/1 ew to 6 places. I'm not sure how to read its Newmarket win but I've decided to go with the more positive interpretation. It was visually impressive on the day but the overall time was nothing special. On the other hand, the rest of the field were all hard at work fully two furlongs out and he just powered away from them. I'd thought maybe they'd gone too fast and he just kept going but his sectionals suggest he was finishing very fast, which begs the question why were the others not able to post good late sectionals if the pace wasn't great? It's an aspect of sectionals I think we still need explanations for but they were good horses and Desert Icon destroyed them, looking for all the world like a much-improved animal. I'm not sure his hike up the ratings gets anywhere close to reflecting that progress.
 
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Danny said:
Thought he needs a dab of rain tbh Marb looked much better on his win on softer ground at York than when behind Que Amoro the time before on faster going although he did get going a bit late in the day on that occasion. I spent a fair bit of time trying to work this out and didn't really get anywhere. The only thought that crossed my mind is that Que Amoro won't get it all his own way upfront most of these like to front run and El Astronaute is a rocket Major jumbo likes to get busy early as well. The 3 that possibly benefit are Tarboosh, Moss gill and Equilateral and I'd probably side with Equilateral as when the pace is cranked up to 11 the fastest horse usually wins and he holds the biggest figure for his run behind Battash. Somehow though I just have a feeling it won't pan out for him so not a very strong selection. If there weren't so many front runners I'd probably side with Que amoro as there is nothing not to like about him really. A good little contest and it'll be an interesting watch. Good luck with Moss Gill mate if he doesn't quite pull if off tomorrow I'd certainly give him another chance on a softer surface he looked very good indeed that day.
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I reckon he acts on better ground as well as soft ground as his form indicates. It's probably a sign of a very good horse, IMHO! I do think he will win today.

I am with you on Tis Marvellous. I had Tabdeed written down earlier in the week but while he has his chance I just can't help backing Tis Marvellous at the respective prices. It was a toss of a coin between those two so I am bound to have picked the wrong one!
 
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Graceful Magic 2.50Nb was flying a bit high in the Guineas, but the drop back to h'cap company should show her in a better light. Trip and ground shouldn't be a problem. 8/1 generally.
 
I have to thank Danny for mentioning it.

As it was him tipping the horse that made me look at the horses profile again.

Lovely jubbly.
 
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Danny said:
A bet for tomorrow before the paper tipsters start going over things. In the John Smiths cup I was torn between 2 horses really, Good Birthday and Sinjaari They were both closely linked when they bumped into one at Newbury last year in the Shape of Headman when he was rated 95 at the time and within 2 more runs he was up to 112 so obviously didn't have much chance of stopping him off such a lowly mark. Sinjarri looked the better of the 2 that day seeing the trip out much better than the Balding runner but I was originally going to come down on the side of Good Birthday anyway as he has race fitness on his side. However he's been drawn in the car park in 22 which isn't an absolute killer here at York but having a claiming jockey on combined with a bad draw just tells me its not going to be his day. Sinjaari's other run after that at 10f came at Goodwood where he didn't really get the run of the race and the Jockey dropped the reigns as he was making his challenge. Providing he's race fit and he's not any the worse for being gelded I think he stands a solid chance. 14/1 is a cracking price it may be one to play win only under the circumstances. Good Birthday may keep drifting with the draw he's got and if he gets much bigger he's probably worth an e/w play himself to try and overcome it.
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Well done Danny and Marb.nice one.
 
Danny said:
A bet for tomorrow before the paper tipsters start going over things. In the John Smiths cup I was torn between 2 horses really, Good Birthday and Sinjaari They were both closely linked when they bumped into one at Newbury last year in the Shape of Headman when he was rated 95 at the time and within 2 more runs he was up to 112 so obviously didn't have much chance of stopping him off such a lowly mark. Sinjarri looked the better of the 2 that day seeing the trip out much better than the Balding runner but I was originally going to come down on the side of Good Birthday anyway as he has race fitness on his side. However he's been drawn in the car park in 22 which isn't an absolute killer here at York but having a claiming jockey on combined with a bad draw just tells me its not going to be his day. Sinjaari's other run after that at 10f came at Goodwood where he didn't really get the run of the race and the Jockey dropped the reigns as he was making his challenge. Providing he's race fit and he's not any the worse for being gelded I think he stands a solid chance. 14/1 is a cracking price it may be one to play win only under the circumstances. Good Birthday may keep drifting with the draw he's got and if he gets much bigger he's probably worth an e/w play himself to try and overcome it.
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:)
 
Danny said:
Well marb hope youve got those in the same bet mate. Congrats !
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I do indeed so a fair profit guaranteed already. See what Tis Marvellous can do later.

The 3.25 was another toss of a coin job but I ended up backing Shailene.
 
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Crikey martin , well done on moss gill, nutted me again on al raya but delighted for ya

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