What are you backing Today?

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Outsider said:
DEVIOUS COMPANY runs tomorrow at naas.7/2 seems a bet after what DO said about it the other day.
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I would urge caution.

a) It might not be over its exertions
b) It's taking on better horses
c) We don't know how it has taken the travelling so soon after a race
d) We don't know how closely the Irish and UK ratings for juveniles are harmonised.
 
Sandown 3.05 Billesdon Brook 100/30 - first things first, I was in rank form yesterday so my high confidence of yesterday morning has taken a bit of a pummelling. However, for the life of me I cannot understand why she is this price and Quadrilateral is 6/4. The latter ran okay in a ****-poor Guineas but well below her OR getting an RPR of 106. Billesdon Brook is a past Guineas winner, albeit not a great one. BB was also raised from 114 to 115 for her run against Nazeef last time so she is at the top of her game right now. Quadrilateral went on to Ascot and got 107 when well beaten into third by Alpine Star. She has to find 8lbs improvement here today to tie with BB or hope the latter doesn't run her race. I think the odds are the wrong way round and have punted accordingly.
 
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Had a small ew earlier on Mamamora (33/1 generally)in the same race. Went too early in a strongly run Balanchine latest and, if she's up for today's race, has the pilot and the draw to at least make the frame. Out & out punt, but the right shape of race for it.
 
San 2.00 - I’ve taken a punt on Saaheq (8/1) in this for the sake of an interest. A string of moderate runs requires forgiving but he showed a lot more last time and last year won a £50k race off a pound higher. He’s also got good form in soft and has the favoured rail draw.

San 2.30 - This is nowhere near as good a race as the one Muraad (11/4) won at Goodwood and the step up in trip should help. I thought he was over-confidently ridden there and got lucky that Overwrite (franked the form with a big run at York) tied up late after kicking too soon so I hope Crowley can keep him in the first half-dozen and have him handy turning for home.

San 3.40 - The once-raced horses will have to improve an awful lot to beat Dubai Fountain. She’s also got a hefty mark-up on her high time rating so I’ve taken 4/1.

I've also decided Devious Company is the safe play in the big sales race at Naas but I thought that the other day too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sandown 3.05 Billesdon Brook 100/30 - first things first, I was in rank form yesterday so my high confidence of yesterday morning has taken a bit of a pummelling. However, for the life of me I cannot understand why she is this price and Quadrilateral is 6/4. The latter ran okay in a ****-poor Guineas but well below her OR getting an RPR of 106. Billesdon Brook is a past Guineas winner, albeit not a great one. BB was also raised from 114 to 115 for her run against Nazeef last time so she is at the top of her game right now. Quadrilateral went on to Ascot and got 107 when well beaten into third by Alpine Star. She has to find 8lbs improvement here today to tie with BB or hope the latter doesn't run her race. I think the odds are the wrong way round and have punted accordingly.
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Interesting market now. BB out to 9/2 and Lavenders Blue into 11/2 from 9s. The case for the latter is she won the race last year and excuses can be made for her defeats this (10f lto and the fillies who set or chased the pace in the Duke of Cambridge filled the last four places at the end, LB amongst them). I'd favour BB at current prices though
 
Course form all important at Cartmel so Tonto’s Spirit with 3 previous wins here makes plenty of appeal at 9/1 in the 2.15


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viking said:
Course form all important at Cartmel so Tonto’s Spirit with 3 previous wins here makes plenty of appeal at 9/1 in the 2.15


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Typical of my luck at the moment. Never went a f***ing yard


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Data Protection... That's a horse forum member Danny has mentioned before. I know he was sweet on it at Epsom but that was before the horse had the wind op.

Entered in the Cambridgeshire.

Chance....
 
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I had Data Protection joint-top rated with Muraad but much preferred the latter's profile.

I'd have to suggest, though, that if DP was going to win the Cambridgeshire he wouldn't be winning today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I would urge caution.

a) It might not be over its exertions
b) It's taking on better horses
c) We don't know how it has taken the travelling so soon after a race
d) We don't know how closely the Irish and UK ratings for juveniles are harmonised.
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Fortunately my stake was a fraction of what it was the other day. The horse is probably off the boil but it looked like Pythagoras was riding it and opted for the hypotenuse. The real sickener was that I backed Chief Little Hawk at Goodwood.
 
Cheif Little Hawk a horse who may win a race or two next season as well. Unlikely to be races like the Guineas, but if he trains on he could turn out to be a good 6F horse.
 
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reet hard said:
Had a small ew earlier on Mamamora (33/1 generally)in the same race. Went too early in a strongly run Balanchine latest and, if she's up for today's race, has the pilot and the draw to at least make the frame. Out & out punt, but the right shape of race for it.
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One day, you'll learn, Col.:lol::lol:
 
Marb said:
Cheif Little Hawk a horse who may win a race or two next season as well. Unlikely to be races like the Guineas, but if he trains on he could turn out to be a good 6F horse.
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I actually backed him at Ascot off the strength of Kevin Blake saying he was one of their strongest fancies. Hadn’t backed him again until today when I thought he looked well at the start (considering how much he’s run) and he was a big price for an AOB horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had Data Protection joint-top rated with Muraad but much preferred the latter's profile.

I'd have to suggest, though, that if DP was going to win the Cambridgeshire he wouldn't be winning today.
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I agree but still he deserves a place in the line up.

That improving handicapper of David Meara's that you won on at Goodwood, called Prompting, is a horse I am looking at for future races. He's entered in the Irish Cambrideshire on Friday, although that race may come quick after his run at York last week.

He'd top of my radar for our Cambridgeshire though. He's only young and a very exciting prospect for next year too.
 
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reet hard said:
Had a small ew earlier on Mamamora (33/1 generally)in the same race. Went too early in a strongly run Balanchine latest and, if she's up for today's race, has the pilot and the draw to at least make the frame. Out & out punt, but the right shape of race for it.
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Super call, well done
 
Marb said:
I agree but still he deserves a place in the line up.

That improving handicapper of David Meara's that you won on at Goodwood, called Prompting, is a horse I am looking at for future races. He's entered in the Irish Cambrideshire on Friday, although that race may come quick after his run at York last week.

He'd top of my radar for our Cambridgeshire though. He's only young and a very exciting prospect for next year too.
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Re Data Protection, he was only off 85 today. In recent Cambridgeshires you'd probably need to be at least 10lbs higher just to make the cut, then another stone well in to win. If they have a Silver Cambs this year he might have a chance. Best to wait until much nearer the time.

I suspect Prompting's curve is flattening given that he couldn't win at York the other day. I haven't crunched the numbers for that race yet but wouldn't be surprised if he didn't improve upon his Goodwood figure. One to keep an eye on to see how his next couple of runs pan out or if they come up with an excuse for the other day.
 
Marb,
Imo, Prompting ran a blinder the other day but, after chasing a good pace from the off, found it a stiffer test than he faced at Goodwood. Wouldn't stay the Cambridgeshire trip in a horsebox. Quote: (after his 7f win at York):
: PROMPTING is a nice type. We could have gone to Beverley earlier in the week but we wanted to keep him at seven furlongs. He had an extra three pounds on his back and he's done well to carry top weight. Danny [Tudhope] said he might get a mile - David O'Meara, trainer.
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Desert Orchid said:
Re Data Protection, he was only off 85 today. In recent Cambridgeshires you'd probably need to be at least 10lbs higher just to make the cut, then another stone well in to win. If they have a Silver Cambs this year he might have a chance. Best to wait until much nearer the time.

I suspect Prompting's curve is flattening given that he couldn't win at York the other day. I haven't crunched the numbers for that race yet but wouldn't be surprised if he didn't improve upon his Goodwood figure. One to keep an eye on to see how his next couple of runs pan out or if they come up with an excuse for the other day.
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This year's Cambs might be different because of the reduced prize money. Last year it was worth just under £100k to the winner. Like the Hunt Cup and Golden Mile, this year it might be half that. Last year you needed to be on 98/99 to make the cut in the Hunt Cup and Cambridgeshire but as recently as 2017 91 sneaked in. You'd probably need to be on at least 95 when the weights come out and be prepared to pick up a penalty in case not too many come out.

Euronymous has the right idea. It now takes an unexposed Group horse to win the race or a serious improver. Gosden has developed the knack of identifying a proper candidate early in the season, if not the season before, and gearing their campaign to getting them in around the 98-100 mark when they're probably 115-120 in truth. Godolphin do likewise. They have such vast numbers spread among good trainers they can also take the same approach as Gosden. Hamdan Al Maktoum also has that kind of depth of resource. I'm surprised Khaled Abdullah doesn't do it as often. I can't recall his having won it since Tremblant back in the '80s. That might change in future.
 
Cheers for feedback fellas.

Maybe they will run him in Ireland on Friday in the Irish Cambridgeshire over 8F then, who knows eh.
 
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Small ew (bored silly) Sea Voice 5.15 Bath. Lightly raced 3yo that's won & placed with cut in the ground, 3 races this season, all in higher class on wrong ground (finished last latest, in a 0-100 on g/f :)) which won't do his fitness any harm, and is also the choice of Sean Levey.
20/1 with Corals, but 1've just wasted an hour trying to negotiate their website. Took 20/1 with Skybet earlier.
 
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reet hard said:
Small ew (bored silly) Sea Voice 5.15 Bath. Lightly raced 3yo that's won & placed with cut in the ground, 3 races this season, all in higher class on wrong ground (finished last latest, in a 0-100 on g/f :)) which won't do his fitness any harm, and is also the choice of Sean Levey.
20/1 with Corals, but 1've just wasted an hour trying to negotiate their website. Took 20/1 with Skybet earlier.
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You're getting a taste for the long shots here.... :D
 
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