Where's the Festival Value?

Have to say I'm with Tanlic here, Grassy. I just don't believe UDS really gets 2m5f in a proper race , especially on the undulating track that is Cheltenham. Always been a huge fan of the horse, but I will be against him in the Ryanair, even if it was soft(Historically unlikely). I firmly believe his last run over 2m was his best yet over fences.
 
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I fancy Kylemore Lough myself (not guaranteed to run, though looks more promising now he swerves than IGC), but I wouldn't be ruling out UDS on trip. He is unbeaten at around 2m5f on much deeper ground, and has plenty enough stamina for the Ryanair, imo. Besides, nothing will want to take him on, and Walsh will likely be able to dictate a pace that maximises his chances.
 
wilsonl said:
The IGC market is f*cked. How on earth is that moody slow boat Don Poli fav ?. He'll finish behind Empire of Dirt and Carlingford Lough. Sizing John is the fly in the ointment.
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It is a very weird market right enough. Do not get the fuss with Empire of Dirt, CL only wins Grade 1s if they fall apart, Minella Rocco just no. I don't want Sizing John to win given the price I have about the Ryanair but he has to be the bet even with doubts over the trip. He's much the classiest horse in the race and the ground won't be that soft.


Grasshopper said:
I fancy Kylemore Lough myself (not guaranteed to run, though looks more promising now he swerves than IGC),
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He emptied very quickly after being over keen at Cheltenham and to me it makes sense to go for the Ascot Chase given the lack of credible opposition that looks like turning up there. Cue Card and Josses Hill should ensure a good pace.
 
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I'm on Sizing for the Ryanair too and dont see how this ends well. He wins he goes Gold Cup, he loses but performs well he probably still goes Gold Cup and even if he loses on stamina it means he's has a hard race 4 weeks out. Performs badly and who ****** knows.

Idiot owner
 
The thing about the hard race is at least the ground won't be bottomless. I'm still confident he'll run in the Ryanair even of he wins, if only because Thistlecrack looks way more solid than UDS. I think the trainer has it in her to caution the owner.
 
Sizing John .. classy .. what a laugh..

Champagne Fever is the class horse in Ryanair, 33/1 nrnb is the value.

I will take as big joy for UDS getting outstayed as I did for L'ami Serge last season for switching away from the Arkle. If your horse is a two times G1 winner over 2 miles in the current season and you send him up in trip then oh I can't get more excited to see you get beat.
 
As a general rule for the Ryanair it usually pays to side with the 3 milers coming down rather than the speedsters trying to step up. Looking through the potential field this year though there isn't many qualifiers. I'd have to say that Zabana still stands out as the value so any sort of promising run on Sunday will probably make my mind up.
 
UDS most certainly is no 3 miler based on his French Champion Hurdle effort where Ptit Zig turned the form round by nearly 30 lengths and UDS finished legless.

He skipped round Auteuil 2m5f and was never under any pressure with a featherweight on his back. That reminded me of these classy horses who win p2p over 3 miles but barely get 2m4f against better quality animals under rules.

At Cheltenham there's no place to hide and very few don't come under some sort of pressure at some stage. Even if the ground did come up soft/testing, the combination of a tougher track,testing ground and the additional weight is surely close to the equivalent of racing round 3 miles round a flat track like Auteuil?
 
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TheBear said:
As a general rule for the Ryanair it usually pays to side with the 3 milers coming down rather than the speedsters trying to step up.
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Not sure I agree with that. Sure Vautour and Cue Card won the race having taken in the King George earlier in the season, but the majority of both horses runs were
short of three miles and both only had Festival form at 2 or 2 and a half. Uxizandre also is not a three miler.
 
Vautour, bless him, was no speedster, got thoroughly exposed in his last race over 2 miles in open company. CC as well, no speedster. UDS on the other hand is made mostly of speed and already proved that 2 seasons in a row now when fully able of competing against older horses, one of the best chaser, over 2 miles. For him to go Ryanair would be a sacrilege to this beautiful sport.
 
Maruco said:
The antepost market is ridiculously tight these days, and we tend to feed on scraps when the handicaps come out, but there are always some overlooked gems in the Championships and Novice Championships that are completely overlooked....So if the gun was to your head and you had to put up one or two horses each way at double figure odds name them any why, or alternatively if each way isn't your thing, which favourite is getting turned over and by what?
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I think Different Gravey in the JLT fits your criteria.

Nicky Henderson says in today's RP that the horse goes for that race. He also runs Top Notch, the second favourite.

Against Different Gravey are his poor run last time out and the fact that he has yet to show his form in two runs at Cheltenham.

In his favour are his undoubted ability - a 160-rated hurdler although that might slightly flatter him - and his terrific record when fresh. He'll have had three months off when the race comes round.

25/1 available NRNB. Decent each-way at that price, for me.
 
gus said:
I think Different Gravey in the JLT fits your criteria.

Nicky Henderson says in today's RP that the horse goes for that race. He also runs Top Notch, the second favourite.

Against Different Gravey are his poor run last time out and the fact that he has yet to show his form in two runs at Cheltenham.

In his favour are his undoubted ability - a 160-rated hurdler although that might slightly flatter him - and his terrific record when fresh. He'll have had three months off when the race comes round.

25/1 available NRNB. Decent each-way at that price, for me.
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Afer the poor run at Cheltenham they found ulcers I think.
 
Is there value in Henderson for top trainer at the festival at 5/1? It looks between him & Mullins. They both look to have two certs, bar a fall, in Altior & Douvan. After that you could argue for and against with many of their horses chances.

Henderson looks to be coming into the festival with his strongest team since he got 7 winners a few years ago.




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Is Jer's Girl on course for the mares race? Think 7/1 is an ew steal for this classy mare.

Also think Identity Thief is a stonking ew bet in the Ankle @12's....race will cut up something awful and decent ground will suit. He's been unfortunate since his chase debut when very impressive.

Just over 7/1 the place part...
 
trefflich said:
Also think Identity Thief is a stonking ew bet in the Ankle @12's....race will cut up something awful and decent ground will suit. He's been unfortunate since his chase debut when very impressive.
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I was looking at the Arkle market this evening myself treff, for the same reasons that it looks like it will cut up badly. And while I agree IT looked impressive on chase debut, I'm finding it difficult to forgive/forget his last 2 runs. I think to say he was unfortunate is a stretch. Having re-watched both races, he simply didn't cope with the increased pace and jumping at pace. I personally think his confidence is shook now after the last day. Genuinely not trying to p*ss on your parade here, purely replying as I had spent a good hour looking at the Arkle tonight.
FWIW After my research I came down on Forest Bihan. Now rated OR 149 and his Only defeat over fences was to Waiting patiently, who has since franked the form (Granted over further). FB clearly appreciates the better ground, has won on an undulating track (Towcester) and won going left handed 3 times. Arkle is his only entry and I think he's a certain runner here. Has had 4 runs runs over fences now, gaining valuable experience and improving with each run imo. LTO he was getting 3lbs from cloudy dream, blundered the 3rd last and still got up to win by 1.5 L - so I believe he was value for that win and then some (Without the blunder he would have won further imo). Cloudy dream is a general 16/1 shot, while Forest Bihan 25/1 E/W 3 places 1/4 the odds with Bet365 NRNB. In terms of 'Value' in the Arkle, this is where I believe it is at. 10/1 E/W 3 places 1/5 the odds with Sportsbook in the W/O Altior market also appeals.
 
You bring up a topic which needs some attention DH. There has to be e/w value in both the Arkle & CC whilst the bookies are offering 3 places. I've not looked at them properly yet but will be trying to find at least one e/w double.

Your selection for The Arkle does catch the eye.


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TheBear said:
You bring up a topic which needs some attention DH. There has to be e/w value in both the Arkle & CC whilst the bookies are offering 3 places. I've not looked at them properly yet but will be trying to find at least one e/w double.

Your selection for The Arkle does catch the eye.


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God's Own @20's looks seriously good value in QM. Was running a blinder in Tingle Creek, without errors has to make the frame.
 
trefflich said:
God's Own @20's looks seriously good value in QM. Was running a blinder in Tingle Creek, without errors has to make the frame.
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Well we're on the same page here Trefflich [emoji4] . God's Own was my each way double with FB. Only fear is I think he holds a Ryanair entry too?
 
I like Charbel e/w for the Arkle @ 16s. Closest any horse has come to making Altior work over fences and had previously beaten Le Prezien and Top Notch on his fences debut.

He's entered for the JLT too but he's a flat bred out-and-out two miler so would have real stamina questions in that and he was good enough to finish 5th in a red hot Supreme last year.
 
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