Which Way De Solzen

I couldn't tell you in truth. It did occur to me that of all the courses to pick on, Haydock was just about the worst I could find, but it was a hand I was dealt so to speak. The only one I'd be relatively comfortable about is the fence just after they turn in the home straight. If it isn't in the same position, it's pretty damn close, and presumbly the home straight course hasn't changed too much in terms of the overall distance. In fact, thinking about it, I'm not sure there were any hurdles out? I'll have to recheck. I've just tried measuring Goodwoods alleged 6F straight!!! I was hoping to prove something else, but alas no joy. :laughing:

I'll see if I can work out what version I've got, but I'm told you can upgarde the pixels now so as to enable you to read newspapers etc :eek: Have you ever put "Area 51" into the search? there's an airstrip there I measured at 4.5 miles, what on Earth would need a landing strip that long? What speed must it be travelling at :suspect: Stay on topic, must be for BJK. :xmassnowgrin:
 
Oh, so in order to contribute something worthwhile and not be talking crap you have to post 29 long and confusing to follow paragraphs fell of cut-and-paste figures per post?! Right-o.....

(that'll be why I tend to give up after paragraph 3 at the most....)
 
Well on my version the grandstand appears to be a building site.... which dates it a bit, but the mile start is clearly visible as a worn strip across the track, I think I've found the winning posts but they aren't as clear as on some other tracks, and because I haven''t paid for the satelitte spy version, it pixelates at about 100 feet. Anyway I reckon the near side is about 1.4 yards shorter, but there is a kink in the rail and I've used a straight line. I've brought it in just short of a mile too :eek: which makes me think I've lined up against something other than the winning post

1,677.18 yds far side and 1,675.78 near side. The GPS is accurate to with 0.1% apparently.
 
In fairness to Headstrong (and others) getting through Warbler's posts can be like cracking the enigma code at times
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Really Uncle G?? I find him ridiculously oversimplistic.

HS - I am sorry to have hassled you if you are under the weather, Get well soon.
 
Originally posted by an capall@Dec 30 2007, 09:36 AM
In fairness to Headstrong (and others) getting through Warbler's posts can be like cracking the enigma code at times
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Really Uncle G?? I find him ridiculously oversimplistic.

HS - I am sorry to have hassled you if you are under the weather, Get well soon.
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Erm.....that was me a chapaill, although it's easy to get us confused!
 
To be honest, I'd say it was reasonably obvious from the comments that about half the people were able to follow the rationale, understand it, and have hopefully, been able to draw something from it? Where as others either didn't want to, or preferred instead to selectively skim read it. The latter runs the obvious risk of missing detail, which can lead to misunderstandings, if people elect to seize on things like a bull in the proverbial china shop. It's not a million miles removed by way of observation from what Goober posted.

If I'm going to make claims etc In this case that a vast majority of Grade 1 Staying Hurdlers aren't necessarily true grade 1 animals, then it's only matter of time before you draw down abuse or someone challenges you to back up what your saying with evidence, hence why I pulled down the 2005 novice hurdlers. What's wrong with that? Far better to at least present some evidence for scrutiny then just make a series of fire from the hip comments?

I'm still slightly puzzled incidentally by this continued use of Lindop to rubbish the line of enquiry. Am I missing something? I can't find one iota of evidence to suggest this horse (presumebly at Newbury?) was anything other than a very run of the mill maiden winner. Dessie's more generous to him than me. I'd be intrigued to know how it's entered into apparent folklore that you invoke Lindop to some how discredit the stopwatch? I know what figures I've got for him using a class par method, and there's absolutely nothing what so ever that would alert me to him being a concealed group performer. Quite opposite. Far from being the antedote, Lindop is actually a case to support the stopwatch (imho). I'd be interested to see anyone's figures to the contrary? or the rationale behind the supposition
 
As I recall, it was because Lindop's time rating for C&D at Newbury on Lockinge day worked out something like 30lbs slower than Hawk Wing's and people like me were saying HW had recorded the best form rating since Brigadier Gerard & Mill Reef. I think it was maybe Brian H who then, in jest and perhaps even in mischief, suggested that Lindop must be special, by applying the time differential to the form, which would have been entirely misleading.

I was never 'generous' towards Lindop.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Dec 30 2007, 04:06 PM
I was never 'generous' towards Lindop.
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If you gave him 81, then you certainly were in the context of what I've rated him as :laughing:

So the whole thing was just a wheeze then, :xmasrudolf: and people have adopted it by way of a mythical truism (strange world) but I got the impression some had genuinely grown to believe it?

I was curious as I said, because the figure I have for him could only lead me to conclude that LSD is much under-rated, if anyone seriously thought that the stopwatch somehow supported Lindop being a 'good thing'. In any event, time differentials between group 1 winners and those of C&D same card maidens at say Newmarket or Newbury are often nearer than people imagine.

I'm supposed to be doing a review of Leopardstown, which is a bit like doing the washing up, in so far as I'm trying to do everything else but at the moment. I'll see if I can dig some figures out relevant to this race to see if I can demonstrate it.
 
The corresponding races appeared on the same card between 2003 and 2005, with two divisions of the maiden being run in 2004. In order of closest first;

Russian Rhytmn beat Madid by 2.70 secs
Russian Rhythm beat Credit by 3.31 secs
Rakti beat Fortunate Isle by 4.10 secs
Hawk Wing beat Lindop by 4.40 secs

Making the mercurial Lindop the furthest away from his correpsonding Gp1 winner. It all points to Hawk Wing being seriously top drawer even if Rakti battered the track record in his win. Either way, it does nothing for Lindop
 
Interesting comments from Alan King;

King added: “All the tests have returned negative. His heart rate was normal and he didn't blow long. We are treating him for ulcers - but that's just a stab in the dark. The trainer has to get his act together and get him back.”

Given the horses apparent good health, it would appear that he's pretty well stumped for an explanation. Suffice to say I can't help thinking that he had him right at Haydock and he simply didn't stay a truly run 3 miles in amongst genuine grade 1 performers, emptying as he did somewhere between the 4th and 3rd last. This in turn led to him being over-cooked at home for Kempton by way of a mis-diagnosis regarding Haydock. It could be that staright forward?

The deicsion to go to the Cleeve is interesting though, and all but strikes a line through a 2 mile chase campaign I'd have thought? I wanted to back him for the Champion Chase ante post (12/1) convinced he was a better prospect than VPU, but with the latter seemingly having few alternative possibilities it would of course mean running both against each other, something which this plan seems to confirm isn't really being entertained at the moment. Having said that running in the Stayers means clashing with Blazing Bailey. If AK's contemplating such a route, can we deduce that he doesn't really consider BB as a potential winner?

If he does line up for the Stayers Hurdle come March it truly would be intriguing. He only just held on from Golden Cross to win his own title. This time he'll have Inglis Drever to contend with, and perhaps of equal significance Lough Derg :eek:

The Long Walk winner has been routinely smashed down in the traditional slow paced and quicken affairs that seem to characterise staying hurdles. After Ascot, I'd have thought he's committed to trying to reproduce the sort of tactics he employed there, and get them on the stretch. Such a spectacle raises a few prospects (especially if a few of the other runners elect to go with him and help share the burden of 'breaking trail')

1: Two seperate groups within the same race, placing much greater emphasis on jockey judgement amongst the peloton

2: The possibility of a brisker pace which could find a few of the doubtful stayers (those who've been getting 3 miles because of a moderate pace previously) in trouble

Unlikely as it appears, I'd be interested to see Sweet Kiln have a go under these circumstances
 
"Suffice to say I can't help thinking that he had him right at Haydock ............."

Warbs, if you remember, it was reported that the horse was blowing for a long time after that Haydock run.

Not conclusive evidence, of course, but it does suggest that he might have needed that race and the horse has underperformed on seasonal debut before.
 
Or been pitched into a truly run race, against genuine grade 1 horses, at a distance he'd struggle to handle under such circumstances, and had hitherto, never been asked to before?
 
But didn't you say the horse was beaten at two miles?

That suggests to me that it wasn't about lack of stamina.

It may well be that the horse has developed a problem, physical or mental, and he just doesn't want to know at the moment.
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Dec 31 2007, 01:03 PM
But didn't you say the horse was beaten at two miles?
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No.

I estimated him to be coming under severe pressure at 19.75 F's (probably beaten) but definately beaten at 21F's, (the point Exotic Dancer jumped past him) based around this Googleearth application of pin pointing the fences against the race video. Far from suggesting he was beaten at 16F's, I thought he was travelling the best of the lot (as indeed did Norman Williamson) which if anything tells me that he was fit, but was ultimately found out for trip at the pace he had to sustain.

(we are talking about Haydock aren't we?)
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Dec 30 2007, 04:25 PM
I was curious as I said, because the figure I have for him could only lead me to conclude that LSD is much under-rated, if anyone seriously thought that the stopwatch somehow supported Lindop being a 'good thing'.
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That, I wouldn't know. I've never used any illegal substance.
 
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