Which Way De Solzen

Visable relief from Alan King today after Blazing Bailey bounced back from the wilderness. Obvious to all that when he commented that they do come back from a bad run etc etc he was thinking of My Way.

Fingers crossed he navigates his way back as well as Bailey has! :)
 
And if he'd been beaten? you'd probably tell me he was still the victim of this phantom virus, that the polo mint pedaler's been selectively pushing around the yard. Yeah... right.

Funnily enough, I was tempted to dig that post out to suggest that the horse that was named in mitigation of MWDS (Blazing Bailey) appears to have blown out of the water the idea that he was suffering from a virus today? But congratulations, you got there first, and have invoked the idea that MWDS is on the mend because of BB. :brows: I'm sure that's music to Alan King's ears, because its patently obvious from his latest, that he hasn't got a clue what's wrong. Didn't he describe his latest diagnosis as a "stab in the dark"?

If MWDS can win a truly run, grade1, staying race then I'll conceed. Until then I'm afraid I'm holding out to the hypotesis that he doesn't stay 3 miles under such circumstances, and BB's victory today I'm afraid, only adds to my sense of belief as he was one of the horses mentioned only a few days ago as evidence that the stable had a virus!!!

Some virus!!!!

"Call Blazing Bailey"

"Tell me Mr Bailey. Did you, on or about January 1st win a race at the premises known as Prestbury Park , Cheltenham, Gloucestershire whilst suffering from a virus just 3 or 4 days earlier?
 
If AK thinks MWDS is ok and he goes well in Cleeve would he not consider the Ryanair if he had any doubt about him staying?
What distance is the Cleeve Hurdle?
 
Originally posted by eric c@Jan 1 2008, 10:28 PM
If AK thinks MWDS is ok and he goes well in Cleeve would he not consider the Ryanair if he had any doubt about him staying?
What distance is the Cleeve Hurdle?
Click to expand...
I always thought the Cleeve Hurdle was over 3 miles? ? ?
 
Cleeve is 3 miles---I have since checked---why run in that if as Warbler suggests he does not stay in a true run race.
I am inclined to think that he is another frenchman who has gone over the top???
 
Does he need to stay 3m in 3m hurdle races though Eric? Or will his class see him through? I think that was the crux of the argument.
 
Spot on BM

If I was going to be totally arrogant about it........................oh it doesn't matter
 
Oh wot the feck;

I'd love to meet AK and run my theory past him? I must admit, the more I'm looking at it, the more it stacks?
 
Interesting thread. The thought occurred to me that it would be an interesting exercise in proving or disproving the theory about the stayers hurdle, to examine the subsequent chasing careers of those listed as finishing in the top 3, with specific regard to their distance and class preferences.

Admittedly I have only looked at those I recall as having gone chasing so I might have missed one or two. All distances and class figures are taken from their best chasing performances as determined by RPR.

Iris's Gift - 3m Graded/Novice Chases
Crystal D'Ainay - 3m2f-3m5f Hcp/Graded Hcp's
It Takes Time - 2m4f - 3m3f Hcp to Graded
Bacchanal - 3m Graded
Behrajan - 3m+ Graded
Le Coudray - 3m Graded
Paddys Return - 3m+ Hcp's
Cyborgo - 3m Graded

Make of that what you will, although, at a glance, it seems to disprove the general basis of the theory, unless, of course, all of these achievements were made in slowly run races, which would seem a trifle improbable.

For those of you who, like me, have difficulty in reading all of Warblers posts, due to laziness on my part and verbosity on his, try this. Read the first line of each paragraph - as a general rule it is possible to determine if that paragraph then contains something interesting or is simply surrounding waffle. Read those paragraphs which seem to contain something interesting.
 
Originally posted by simmo@Jan 4 2008, 03:00 PM
For those of you who, like me, have difficulty in reading all of Warblers posts, due to laziness on my part and verbosity on his, try this. Read the first line of each paragraph - as a general rule it is possible to determine if that paragraph then contains something interesting or is simply surrounding waffle. Read those paragraphs which seem to contain something interesting.
Click to expand...
:D :D
 
Originally posted by simmo@Jan 4 2008, 02:00 PM
Make of that what you will, although, at a glance, it seems to disprove the general basis of the theory, unless, of course, all of these achievements were made in slowly run races, which would seem a trifle improbable.
Click to expand...
As you say, it is only a first glance, and such snapshots can mislead people and cause them to over look detail etc.

It's probably not unreasonable to assume that the horses listed might be regarded as being at the apex of their division? They have afterall run a first 3 finish in their grade 1 championship event (although quite a few will record higher RPR's in different races).

I think in fairness to your supposition, it's probably unreasonable to expect them all to be able to replicate their stayers hurdles performances when sent over fences, as just because they reached the pinnacle in one discipline, we'd be cutting them little slack in expecting them to faultlessly do same in another. They were however still theoretically, at a peak level of elite performance, and there would therefore be grounds to believe that they should be capable of setting a similarly high standard, if not eclipsing always it?

Contrary to your assertion, I'd suggest that the evidence weighs more in favour of the original hypothesis though.

Iris's Gift

RPR of 176 and winner of a stayers hurdle
When sent over fences the horse managed a rating no better than 155 in a Novice Chase at Cheltenham. The horse was miraculously 21Ibs better of hurdles, and badly found out over fences.

Crystal D'ainay

Finished 3rd in the stayers and earned a rating of 162 over hurdles. You might argue he hasn't raced over fences enough times to form a meaningful opinion? I'm sure you'd have good grounds to do so, but the best RPR I can find for him over fences is 135 in an Exeter Handicap. He's 27Ibs inferior at present, and offers no real encouragment to think he's going to bridge this anytime soon.

It Takes Time

This is one of the more interesting ones as his 3rd allied with his staying hurdles career gave him a top RPR of 163. The best Chase rating I can find for him is 161. So at face value you'd say he's replicated his staying hurdles form? Well perhaps not. If you dig deeper you'll realise that all his winning chase form (and highest RPR's) are at 2.5 miles.

In many respects he has a similar profile to MWDS in this respect. For such time as he was able to run 3 miles over hurdles, the lack of pace (or some other explanation) might have disguised his limitations. When he was put into the more competitive discipline and faster races assoicated with fences, his win ratio suffers quite noticably. Although he's also got staying form in marathon chases just to confuse the issue.

24F +

Hurdles = 4 wins, 3 places 3 unplaced - 4 wins in 10
Chases = 0 wins, 7 places, 7 unplaced - 0 wins in 14

On balance I'd conceed his chases were more competitive (but isn't that just confirming the tenet of my argument?) and there's some respectable efforts in his form, but still no wins at a staying distance.

Bacchanal

Won a stayers hurdle and earned a top RPR of 168
Won a Aon, Feltham, 3rd in King George and 12th in a Gold Cup for a top rating of 168. He remains one of only two horses from the list I think truly re-produced the same level of form (there's one other I'm uncertain about). Bacchanal's stats are remarkbaly similar over both obstacles, even though he reached the pinnacle of staying hrudles, he never really ever thretend to do so over fences

Behrajan

Is the other, and I think you could probably make the argument to suggets he was fractionally better over fences? In any event his top RPR of 167 over hurdles is I believe, legitimately (though marginally) eclipsed by his top chase RPR of 168

Le Coudrey

A lot of his early form was confined to reasonably rich hurdles races in France where no RPR's are recorded making it a bit hazardous. He only completed one run a 3 miles over hurdles and earned 173 for his effort when finishing second to Anzum in the Stayers. Even so, despite wining some grade 1 novice chases, and distinguishing himself in the Irish Henessey and Ericsson I can't find a chase RPR within 10Ibs of the one he put up on his only completed 3 mile hurdle, so he'd be another who achieved a higher level over hurdles than he managed over fences.

Paddys Return

This would be the third horse to join Iris's Gift and Crystal D'Ainay as one that was badly exposed when asked to tackle the more competitive assignment. His top RPR over staying hurdles was 171 put up in the Long Walk, where as his best chase performance was some 37Ibs lower. Indeed, so far as I can establish, 12 of his 25 hurdles ratings, were better than anyone of his 20 chase ratings such was the disparity between the two divisions.

Cyborgo

I think this one is inconclusive (alluded to earlier) Strictly speaking his best chase RPR of 165, narrowly beats his best hurdles rating of 164, so at face value, he'd be similar to Behrajan. But there's something weird about the 165. It's a massive 9Ibs clear of anything he'd ever done previously, or ever did again. The rating appears to have come from nowhere and stands out like a sore thumb as being potentially erroneous, or as evidence to the idea that every dog does indeed have its day. He ran 14 times of hurdles, and 12 over fences, 4 of his best 5 performances came over timber, the 165 really does seem to come from nowhere.


I'd say you've got 3 horses therefore who were demonstrably nowhere near the same level of performance once they were asked to step up to staying chases, and 3 who were able to match their form (I'll add Dorans Pride to the list, as I'd overloked him originally). Two others probably reached a higher standard over staying hurdles than they did fences, but wouldn't fit into the category of being embarassed, where as another is just inconclusive.

Now remembering of course that these are supposed to be the pick of the staying hurdles crop, I'm not sure that I would describe a figure of less than 50% as being supportive to the idea that they transfer their form. I reckon its nearer to 25% which although it's a matter of opinion, I'd have thought was below reasonable expectation?
 
Iris's Gift and Le Coudray both had problems after their Stayers Hurdle run and were not the same horses due to that rather than the fences.
 
....and so did Cyborgo.

But that's not really the point ~ in most cases horses who are championship contenders over hurdles tend to only go chasing when they are no longer able to beat the best over the smaller obstacles. There are plenty of exceptions, of course. The very best chasing prospects tend to mark time over hurdles or occasionally avoid them altogether (Florida Pearl). Comparing the record of hurdlers once they go chasing doesn't really strengthen the original argument as everything becomes subjective.

The original argument is sound enough ~ I don't think the staying division over hurdles has ever been as strong as the two mile division, but proving it requires a simpler analysis, not a more complex one.
 
As a ratings compiler, one thing has always troubled me.

Flat horses run faster than NH horses.

Hurdlers should be able to run faster than steeplechasers. At courses where they have 2m hurdles and chase courses, the hurdles standard time is, on average, several seconds faster, ranging from 4.2s at Doncaster to 16.6s at Ludlow.

Why is it that the top steeplechasers tend to have higher ratings than hurdlers? To me, a top 2-mile hurdler should always be able to run faster than a top 2-mile chaser, yet they're often a good stone behind in the ratings.

Are steeplechasers generally over-rated?
 
Inevitably when dealing with specific horses, there is always going to be a subjective counter argument as Rory suggests, and it's unlikely to take us any where productive I'd have thought.

I should say (contrary to a previous insinuation somewhere back on page 2 and a half) this isn't a new theory of mine based purely around MWDS and the King George, but rather something that I've thought for some time, without being able to satisfy myself as to whether I'm right or wrong, the degree of any rightness or wrongness (as things are rarely 100% decisive), or what can be usefully gained from it by way of punting insight.

The objective isn't necessarily to prove the argument, as that runs an attendant risk of Mordinism, and subjectively looking for evidence to support a position. The objective should be to investigate it, and then see if there's any lesson we can draw from it?

As i said originally, it was the consistent disparity in the speed ratings, that first alerted me to the notion that something is wrong with this division
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jan 4 2008, 11:21 PM
As a ratings compiler, one thing has always troubled me.

Flat horses run faster than NH horses.

Hurdlers should be able to run faster than steeplechasers. At courses where they have 2m hurdles and chase courses, the hurdles standard time is, on average, several seconds faster, ranging from 4.2s at Doncaster to 16.6s at Ludlow.

Why is it that the top steeplechasers tend to have higher ratings than hurdlers? To me, a top 2-mile hurdler should always be able to run faster than a top 2-mile chaser, yet they're often a good stone behind in the ratings.

Are steeplechasers generally over-rated?
Click to expand...
Maybe they take into account that more effort is required to jump a fence than a hurdle, which is maybe why the times are slower as they spend longer in the air?
 
Shouldn't make any difference as the standard time will take that into account.

When you have to split the going correction due to rain softend ground, it's usually the hurdles times that are slower
 
Depends on what method you use to calculate a rating I think. If you use a class par (speed ratings) it doesn't make any discernable difference in my experience. If there's a fast time there, you'll find it. Projection is potentially more accurate, but relies on a degree of subjective judgement regarding who rate off. Also if you make an error, all subsequent ratings can be jeopardised if you continue to rate off an errorneous rating :suspect: The class par corrections work out pretty well (apart from staying hurdlers) but they're limited in what they can tell you.

I suppose you could argue that the essence of jump racing is fences which is where the very biggest prizes and prestige lies, and therefore the very best horses are aimed there etc but I'm not sure I'd like to really defend that line. Istabraq to go novice chasing?

I've got no evidence to suggest there's any difference, but what Dessie's suggesting concerns a handicap rating, rather than a speed rating, which is of course very different. You can combine the two for a type of 'timeform' rating I suppose.

Not sure I can really offer much insight though I'm afraid
 
Warbler: very amusing jokes about equine viruses, but the facts are:

- Most of these are not serious and deep-seated, ie they are 'colds' or sniffles, not the likes of bronchitis; and these mild cases don't always show symptoms in eg blood or scope samples

- Most of them clear up of their own accord, with rest, and don't last long - but a horse can't run to it's optimum whilst under the influence

- It's very rare a virus goes right around the yard, unless there is an overlying reason [eg in one case I know of, the owner whose yard it was insisted in bringing his cattle into the adjacent barn and their exhalations came over into the horses' area causing all sorts of problems - inc the departure of the trainer!]. Many of the horses either will be immune, or won't come into contact with the affected horses

It's therefore entirely possible that Blazing Bailey [or any other of the under-performing horses at Barbury] might have had a touch of virus in Oct/Nov and now be fully recovered; and it's silly to just dismiss the notion if you are trying to take *everything* into account.

This does not discount the probability of your *general* thesis being correct
 
Originally posted by tetley+Jan 4 2008, 11:03 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (tetley @ Jan 4 2008, 11:03 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Desert Orchid@Jan 4 2008, 11:21 PM
As a ratings compiler, one thing has always troubled me.

Flat horses run faster than NH horses.

Hurdlers should be able to run faster than steeplechasers. At courses where they have 2m hurdles and chase courses, the hurdles standard time is, on average, several seconds faster, ranging from 4.2s at Doncaster to 16.6s at Ludlow.

Why is it that the top steeplechasers tend to have higher ratings than hurdlers? To me, a top 2-mile hurdler should always be able to run faster than a top 2-mile chaser, yet they're often a good stone behind in the ratings.

Are steeplechasers generally over-rated?
Click to expand...
Maybe they take into account that more effort is required to jump a fence than a hurdle, which is maybe why the times are slower as they spend longer in the air? [/b][/quote]
I've explored and re-visited this theory several times over the years.

Most 2m hurdles races involve 8 obstacles, most 2m chases involve 12.

Fences take more jumping than hurdles and there are more of them in a race of equal distance therefore it is entirely logical for steeplechases to take longer, but is it enough to account for the 16.6s difference at Ludlow, for example?

My bumper ratings are based on the two mile hurdles times with an allowance for not having to jump the flights. I've calculated, on the basis that the fastest-run bumper races are at Cheltenham in March and Aintree in April, and on the assumption that they represent the equivalent of 168-rated hurdlers, that jumping a flight slows a horse up 0.8s, which equates to about four lengths. This will probably seem too generous to many but the maths have to work. I'm coming round to the idea that 0.8s isn't generous enough, since I'm struggling to think of a bumper winner that was capable of hitting 168 over 2m and eight or nine hurdles. (Rhinestone Cowboy hit 170+ but that was over 2½m+).

It would therefore stand to reason that jumping a fence will account for more than 0.8s - at present I allow 1s where fences are omitted - but is that still likely to account for the difference?

And why is the difference between Doncaster and Ludlow so great?
 
by Neil Morrice
.

ALAN KING has had a change of heart over the next destination for My Way De Solzen and is to run last season's Arkle Trophy hero in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell on February 24.

The eight-year-old, whose poor run in the King George VI Chase continues to perplex King, landed the same prize on the way to his Ladbrokes World Hurdle success at the 2006 Cheltenham Festival.

King had mentioned the Byrne Bros Cleeve Hurdle at the next Cheltenham meeting, but that is now atarget for his talented hurdler Blazing Bailey.
King said on Saturday: “The plan is to run him in the National Spirit next. He's being treated for ulcers, but we still don't know what went wrong at Kempton.”

King has ruled out the Gold Cup and added:“He won't be entered for the Gold Cup and my feelings are that the Ryanair Chase would be the race to best suit him at Cheltenham.”
 
Re the discrepancy in times between chases and hurdles at Ludlow ~ this may help explain (from the ATR course guide):

"Both the chase and hurdles courses at Ludlow are sharp, but this is a rare case in which the chase course is well inside the hurdles track and so is considerably tighter. This really is a course specialists’ venue as the tight bends and quick-fire fences, plus the often prevailing fast ground and numerous matted road crossing, bring out the best in some horses and inconvenience the majority of others. Be very wary of Ludlow form when assessing a race at any other course as it often just doesn’t weigh up. Jockeys nicknamed the first fence in the home straight “Tricky Trevor” a few years ago as it gained a reputation for causing several falls and unseated riders at virtually every meeting. In recent seasons the work done to the fence has reduced it’s number of casualties but it is still a key point in races."
 
Back
Top