Which Way De Solzen
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Shadow Leader
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The analysts do indeed get credited in the Racing Post Garney - as do the close-up writers and the SP returners.
Personally I think talk that MWDS didn't stay the 2m4f at Fontwell is daft. He is a big gross horse who was given an easy after the KG and who hadn't seen the track for two months - he will come on for that run, not least as King will want him spot on for the Festival, not for yesterday.
MWDS and Elusive Dream set a furious pace and took each other on from a long way out which unsurprisingly will have tired both horses - I also believe that Lough Derg emerging in the shadow of the post will have surprised the two that were in front - I don;t think either jockey expected that. It looked to me as though Choc didn't notice LD until he went past him, he was fairly wide on the track from the other two.
U
useful
Guest
The analysts do indeed get credited in the Racing Post Garney - as do the close-up writers and the SP returners.
Personally I think talk that MWDS didn't stay the 2m4f at Fontwell is daft. He is a big gross horse who was given an easy after the KG and who hadn't seen the track for two months - he will come on for that run, not least as King will want him spot on for the Festival, not for yesterday.
MWDS and Elusive Dream set a furious pace and took each other on from a long way out which unsurprisingly will have tired both horses - I also believe that Lough Derg emerging in the shadow of the post will have surprised the two that were in front - I don;t think either jockey expected that. It looked to me as though Choc didn't notice LD until he went past him, he was fairly wide on the track from the other two. [/b][/quote]
Unlucky Garney.
I'd have to agree. My Way de Solzen may come on for that, but the impression it left is that something is still not quite right. I don't know whether that would be mental or physical, but what we saw yesterday we wouldn't have seen in previous seasons from him. Whatever pace was set you still wouldn't have expected Lough Derg to be capable of beating him over two and half, even less so on a sharp track if MWDS were anywhere near his best. For me he left the impression that he didn't go through with it. Less we forget he has won a World Hurdle and an Arkle. He shouldn't have been beaten by Lough Derg for either speed or stamina over that trip yesterday.
Shadow Leader
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FFS useful, I didn't post that so you'd think you'd scored some sort of cheap point against Garney - I did it to let him know they are all accredited.
davidjohnson
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Galileo
That's because Elusive Dreams will develop into a leading staying hurdler given the chance. Pity he won't be running at the Festival but he has the potential to be the leading staying novice this season imo.
That's because Elusive Dreams will develop into a leading staying hurdler given the chance. Pity he won't be running at the Festival but he has the potential to be the leading staying novice this season imo.
tdk
At the Start
My Way looks a shadow of he horse he was last season imo - at least a stone inferior. I can't have him on my mind for any Cheltenham Festival race on current form.
The only point that LM made that is worthy of note is that not only is it a surprise to see LOugh Derg being good enough to beat MWDS over 20f at all - it is even more a surprise that he could do it giving him 8lb
MWDS will have to come on enormously to trouble the judge in the World Hurdle.
MWDS will have to come on enormously to trouble the judge in the World Hurdle.
It seems he's still working fine at home though
From the Barbury Castle rundown for Cheltenham on the MOS website:
<< VOY POR USTEDES: I'm hoping for good ground which he bounces off. I'm looking forward to the Champion where he won't go down without a fight. We're 6lb better off with Master Minded (who beat him in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury) and I'm hopeful he can get closer to him. The reason he does well at Cheltenham is because he stays so well. He can't work with My Way De Solzen at home. I'll probably step him up to two-and-a-half miles at Aintree. >>
From the Barbury Castle rundown for Cheltenham on the MOS website:
<< VOY POR USTEDES: I'm hoping for good ground which he bounces off. I'm looking forward to the Champion where he won't go down without a fight. We're 6lb better off with Master Minded (who beat him in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury) and I'm hopeful he can get closer to him. The reason he does well at Cheltenham is because he stays so well. He can't work with My Way De Solzen at home. I'll probably step him up to two-and-a-half miles at Aintree. >>
Sheikh
At the Start
I'd have to agree with the original post, he looks as if something is wrong with him, hopefully we don't find out tragically what it is.
And from the quote above I really wonder why they don't send both to the Champion Chase. Surely Sunday proved he wont be winning a World Hurdle, and as Alan King says My Way de Solzen shows much more speed than Voy Por at home. It's easy to forget that he won last years Arkle in a very good time, and the previous seasons Arkle winners have an outstanding record in the Champion Chase. Why send the 'speed horse' over three miles when he looks as though it's the last thing he needs right now?
I'm not sure how Nick Mordin seriously thinks MWDS has bounced abck to form in losing to Lough Derg in receipt of weight, but this is take on Sundays race.
MY WAY DE SOLZEN BACK TO FORM
I predicted that MY WAY DE SOLZEN (37) would bounce back to form when he reverted to an undulating track. Sure enough he did so when running second in the National Spirit Trophy at Fontwell to LOUGH DERG (38).
It was rather a messy race for My Way De Solzen. First of all he was nearly brought down when Gold Gun fell right under him at the sixth. Then his jockey decided the race was only between him and Elusive Dream and engaged in a sprint duel with that one from three out. My Way De Solzen won the sprint against Elusive Dream but it tired him so badly he was beginning to wander about approaching the last and fell victim to Lough Derg's late rally as he wandered even more on the run in.
I guess if he hadn't been hampered and had been ridden a bit more conservatively My Way De Solzen would have won this race well. It certainly looked like turning out that way as they turned into the straight. But I have to say that my gut feel from watching him here is that he should be going for the Ryanair Chase rather than the World Hurdle. I know he won the World Hurdle before. Now though he looks and runs like a two and a half mile chaser.
Still, My Way De Solzen does have a remarkably good record on undulating tracks and has won at the Cheltenham Festival in each of the last two years. So I'll be thinking hard before I oppose him at the big meeting.
The obvious horse to oppose My Way De Solzen with at Cheltenham if this run is any guide has to be Kasbah Bliss who beat Lough Derg last time. As I've mentioned before it seems clear that Lough Derg himself doesn't quite get the three miles at Cheltenham. He ran another fine race over a shorter trip here though, rallying strongly to pick up My Way De Solzen as that one tired.
In fact I rather wonder whether Lough Derg gets three miles over hurdles anywhere but Ascot, a track where I've noticed many apparent non-stayers have lasted trips they haven't seemed to stay elsewhere over the years. So far Lough Derg has won seven of his fifteen starts over hurdles at less than three miles. That Ascot win is his sole success in nine other hurdles outings over three miles plus.
I was misled into fancying ELUSIVE DREAM (36) by an inaccurate official going report (it said good when race times indicated it was actually soft). And he certainly looked a big threat as he dueled with My Way De Solzen in the sprint from three out. But he's never lasted national hunt distances on soft ground before and sure enough he ended up tiring from before the last here.
The only problem Elusive Dream has ever had besides not lasting jump trips on soft ground is that he doesn't seem very good at fighting for for position in a race in big fields. Toss out his hurdle runs on soft ground and all his races with more than a dozen runners and Elusive Dream's record looks fantastic. He's actually won ten of the eleven times he's run in fields of 12 or less at a mile and a half plus excluding those hurdles starts on soft ground. And he's run fast enough to be a threat to pretty much any staying hurdler.
MY WAY DE SOLZEN BACK TO FORM
I predicted that MY WAY DE SOLZEN (37) would bounce back to form when he reverted to an undulating track. Sure enough he did so when running second in the National Spirit Trophy at Fontwell to LOUGH DERG (38).
It was rather a messy race for My Way De Solzen. First of all he was nearly brought down when Gold Gun fell right under him at the sixth. Then his jockey decided the race was only between him and Elusive Dream and engaged in a sprint duel with that one from three out. My Way De Solzen won the sprint against Elusive Dream but it tired him so badly he was beginning to wander about approaching the last and fell victim to Lough Derg's late rally as he wandered even more on the run in.
I guess if he hadn't been hampered and had been ridden a bit more conservatively My Way De Solzen would have won this race well. It certainly looked like turning out that way as they turned into the straight. But I have to say that my gut feel from watching him here is that he should be going for the Ryanair Chase rather than the World Hurdle. I know he won the World Hurdle before. Now though he looks and runs like a two and a half mile chaser.
Still, My Way De Solzen does have a remarkably good record on undulating tracks and has won at the Cheltenham Festival in each of the last two years. So I'll be thinking hard before I oppose him at the big meeting.
The obvious horse to oppose My Way De Solzen with at Cheltenham if this run is any guide has to be Kasbah Bliss who beat Lough Derg last time. As I've mentioned before it seems clear that Lough Derg himself doesn't quite get the three miles at Cheltenham. He ran another fine race over a shorter trip here though, rallying strongly to pick up My Way De Solzen as that one tired.
In fact I rather wonder whether Lough Derg gets three miles over hurdles anywhere but Ascot, a track where I've noticed many apparent non-stayers have lasted trips they haven't seemed to stay elsewhere over the years. So far Lough Derg has won seven of his fifteen starts over hurdles at less than three miles. That Ascot win is his sole success in nine other hurdles outings over three miles plus.
I was misled into fancying ELUSIVE DREAM (36) by an inaccurate official going report (it said good when race times indicated it was actually soft). And he certainly looked a big threat as he dueled with My Way De Solzen in the sprint from three out. But he's never lasted national hunt distances on soft ground before and sure enough he ended up tiring from before the last here.
The only problem Elusive Dream has ever had besides not lasting jump trips on soft ground is that he doesn't seem very good at fighting for for position in a race in big fields. Toss out his hurdle runs on soft ground and all his races with more than a dozen runners and Elusive Dream's record looks fantastic. He's actually won ten of the eleven times he's run in fields of 12 or less at a mile and a half plus excluding those hurdles starts on soft ground. And he's run fast enough to be a threat to pretty much any staying hurdler.
One of last years more entertaining threads; and only resurrected because of what Alan King has said this morning. For those of you wishing to reacquaint yourselves with the arguments and ideas put forward (plus the usual invective) I've tagged his comments on this thread rather than start a new one, but it appears that Alan King has finally come round to Dr Warblers way of thinking, afterall.
My fees for Warblers equine telementary interpretation are very reasonable Alan, you might have saved yourself a season if you'd given me call at Warbler Laboratories, Warblerville, but alas you got there eventually, and even seem to have realised that staying hurdlers are a division flattered by having a group 1 status too.
"We looked at him and couldn't find anything. But, the more I think about it, I'm not convinced he is an out-and-out stayer. I know he won a world hurdle, but he might just have done that on sheer class. He's got plenty of speed and for that reason we're going back in trip" - the article continues "the trainer (King) regrets starting him off in the Betfair Chase last season"
Hip hip hooray; 11 months later King has worked his horse out. Now get me wrong he's done very well with him, (how can anyone pretend otherwise) but I can't help thinking he's been miscampaigned all of last season, and whether there's any damage done remains to be seen.
What King has missed (or only half alluded to) is the difference between a strong pace and a soft pace. Against rubbish (staying hurdlers) he can get away with it more easily as they don't run quickly (I've documented that half way through the thread) and that imo their grade 1 assignation is something of a breach of the trades description act. Against proper grade 1 animals off a true pace, he won't get the trip for stamina, and the point that he empties can pretty well be predicted to about half a furlong depending on track and conditions. I think King made the mistake in thinking 3 miles grade 1 hurdler = 3 mile grade 1 chaser? No it doesn't. The key is pace, one race doesn't have it, and so allows a horse with limited stamina to extend his operational range. The other race does have it, and so the same horses operating ceiling is now lowered. Off a true pace 20F's is about MWDS limit. I said all of last season that he had his two standard bearing chasers the wrong way round. He appears to have realised this now.
VPU - Festival Trophy
MWDS - Champion Chase
My fees for Warblers equine telementary interpretation are very reasonable Alan, you might have saved yourself a season if you'd given me call at Warbler Laboratories, Warblerville, but alas you got there eventually, and even seem to have realised that staying hurdlers are a division flattered by having a group 1 status too.
"We looked at him and couldn't find anything. But, the more I think about it, I'm not convinced he is an out-and-out stayer. I know he won a world hurdle, but he might just have done that on sheer class. He's got plenty of speed and for that reason we're going back in trip" - the article continues "the trainer (King) regrets starting him off in the Betfair Chase last season"
Hip hip hooray; 11 months later King has worked his horse out. Now get me wrong he's done very well with him, (how can anyone pretend otherwise) but I can't help thinking he's been miscampaigned all of last season, and whether there's any damage done remains to be seen.
What King has missed (or only half alluded to) is the difference between a strong pace and a soft pace. Against rubbish (staying hurdlers) he can get away with it more easily as they don't run quickly (I've documented that half way through the thread) and that imo their grade 1 assignation is something of a breach of the trades description act. Against proper grade 1 animals off a true pace, he won't get the trip for stamina, and the point that he empties can pretty well be predicted to about half a furlong depending on track and conditions. I think King made the mistake in thinking 3 miles grade 1 hurdler = 3 mile grade 1 chaser? No it doesn't. The key is pace, one race doesn't have it, and so allows a horse with limited stamina to extend his operational range. The other race does have it, and so the same horses operating ceiling is now lowered. Off a true pace 20F's is about MWDS limit. I said all of last season that he had his two standard bearing chasers the wrong way round. He appears to have realised this now.
VPU - Festival Trophy
MWDS - Champion Chase
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granger
Senior Jockey
I just wonder what version of MWDS will show up
Grasshopper
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Does the report give any indication as to whether MWDS is being dropped back in trip over fences or hurdles?
Shadow Leader
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I'm still not entirely convinced it's all about the trip - the horse seemed to not really want to know last season, to me.
Agreed. The horse we saw last year was totally different to the one who swaggered out to win the Arkle.
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Isinglass
At the Start
I was told that the horse had ulcers, or at least he had treatment for them. Is this just a rumour or was this true? I know it was said in the press that nothing came to light ......
