Which Way De Solzen

I do think though, there is logic in what DO says - certainly in recent times anyway

It seems to me now that the financial incentive and even emotion and safety concerns mean that any hurdler who reaches the elite will not be sent over fences. In recent years - aside from those who went straight from the novice ranks and potentially could have been good enough - I would struggle to think of more than a couple top class hurdlers who have gone over fences. Moscow Flyer's generation was probably the last to excel in one sphere and move onto the next.

Look at the likes of Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Macs Joy [RIP] , Harchibald etc...ok..varying size and scope but now when a promising horse such as Sublimity comes along we rarely even contemplate the thought of him going over fences. Even with the likes of Straw Bear, the prospect is only contemplated if he proves to be way off the mark at two mile hurdle level. So, inevitably, it means that those over hurdles ARE of the faster variety. It's not rocket science really but I did mean to raise a thread at some stage about how few top class hurdlers are really going over fences in the modern era.
 
Originally posted by Bobbyjo@Jan 6 2008, 09:57 PM

It's not rocket science really but I did mean to raise a thread at some stage about how few top class hurdlers are really going over fences in the modern era.
Surely it`s pedigree related. Would Night Nurse have gone chasing if he`d had a flat pedigree?
 
But Night Nurse did have a flat pedigree!!

I'm sure his breeders were as surprised as anyone when he turned out as he did.

They were no doubt hoping to produce a speedy 2-y-o.

His sire was a fast and precocious 5f specialist and his dam was a half-sister to a black type-winning 2-y-o who ran 3rd in the National Stakes at Sandown.
 
I should point out that I don't think it's a bad thing necessarily that the good hurdlers are staying to that sphere

I know terry, formerly of these parts, was of the belief that those who stayed over hurdlers weren't proper horses and couldn't warm to the likes of Istabraq etc on this basis.

To be honest, I think it's added a lot to the hurdling ranks in recent years that the same horses keep coming back year after year in such quantity. I know there was specialists in the past in every era but in terms of depth there is much more now and I think it's a positive thing.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Jan 4 2008, 09:11 PM
Now remembering of course that these are supposed to be the pick of the staying hurdles crop, I'm not sure that I would describe a figure of less than 50% as being supportive to the idea that they transfer their form. I reckon its nearer to 25% which although it's a matter of opinion, I'd have thought was below reasonable expectation?
Which is, of course, a different assertion to that originally made. That being, that a horse does not have to truly stay in order to finish in the first 3 in a Stayers Hurdle. I would personally suggest that Crystal D'Ainay, It Takes Time and Paddy's Return have not performed to a high enough level at 3m to warrant inclusion, leaving us with 6 from 9 who have. Which would indicate to me that the likelihood is that a stayers hurdle "placer" will be perfectly capable of achieving a Graded Chase level at 3m.

However, another thought with regard to your earlier evidence on class has occurred to me (the comparison of Champion Hurdle previous form and Stayers Hurdle previous form). Firstly, I suspect that you have been slightly disingenious in your analysis, although, on balance, I am probably doing you a dis-service with the suggestion.

The comparison seems to have been solely made on the basis of their form over shorter trips - few animals who requires 3m to show their best would be seen in a good light over shorter (and if they did, they'd stay there!). How did they perform when tried at their preferred longer trips?

So if the assertion then became that horses who place in the stayers hurdle are unlikely to have shown top class form at shorter distances, then one could completely agree.

As it is, I actually agree with your points regarding class and distance (although subjectively on the distance point). I just feel that the evidence supplied to date does not adequately demonstrate this.
 
A few point/observations I'd make regarding this discussion.

1. MWDS was beaten to far out in both races for Warbler's anaylysis to be relevant, so therefore we are discussing two entirely seperate issues on the thread, and the two shouldn't be confused.

2. Horses that have 'nothing wrong' with them that 'fall in a hole' for more than one race at the top level rarely recover their previous level of form.

3. The majority of NH breds naturally graduate to larger obstacles leaving their smaller, lighter-framed cousins to contest staying hurdles at the highest level, therefore the pool is diluted given that in percentage terms more NH types are bred for staying distances.

4. Staying hurdles are generally run at modest pace for a large part of the race even at Championship level, meaning those that have a turn of foot and have conserved sufficient energy can still make their speed still count, whereas two mile Championship events are often run at a furious gallop throughout and are often a bigger test of stamina because of the need to sustain a quicker gallop longer.

5. Standard times are just that. You cannot arbitarily adjust them to account for the way a race is run, and therefore in that respect the clock 'does' lie. If you choose to rely solely on the clock and can't or don't read a race you will forever wonder why the fastest horse got beat in a muddling race.

6. Horses are not machines and have good days and bad days the same as humans. Scientists have not yet invented a simple machine to strap to a racehorse that reads their minds and identifies any illness, or physical or mental problem.

7. We should show some appreciation and make the most of Warbler's analysis and contributions while we can because when he's worn the letters off his keyboard he could end up with a seriously dangerous amount of time on his hands. :D
 
Agreed, a very good post in a very interesting thread, much appreciated by all following [or trying to!]

Just because some of us may have reservations about details of Warbler's analysis, doesn't mean we don't appreciate his effort to push the envelope in terms of breakdown detail and fresh theories.

My own take on the respective merits of chasers, staying hurdlers, 2 mile hurdlers etc is, that they are different disciplines each requiring differing qualities; and it's therefore fitting that they have their own championship. 2 mile hurdling at top level is like 2 mile chasing - fantastically exciting to watch; but to diss 3 mile hurdlers because they can't do it is a bit like dissing 3 mile chasers because they can't win a Champion Chase. 3 mile hurdle races are run at the pace they are for a reason, ie to conserve stamina [esp for the finish at Cheltenham]. They are still very demanding of a horse at top level.

Bobbyjo's point about the propensity of top hurdlers to remain over hurdles these days also raises the question whether we are seeing a change in the type of horse to win stayers' hurdle races at top level, making previous stats unrepresentative of what is going on right now? Interesting stuff to carry forward anyway.
 
6. Horses are not machines and have good days and bad days the same as humans. Scientists have not yet invented a simple machine to strap to a racehorse that reads their minds and identifies any illness, or physical or mental problem

and they wouldnt call it the Jonjo if they did

4. Staying hurdles are generally run at modest pace for a large part of the race even at Championship level, meaning those that have a turn of foot and have conserved sufficient energy can still make their speed still count, whereas two mile Championship events are often run at a furious gallop throughout and are often a bigger test of stamina because of the need to sustain a quicker gallop longer.


Surely if this was the case, more decent 2 milers would be taking the step up to the GC trip?

I think there is stamina and stamina

i did atheltics at a certain level long ago and the hardest race was the 400 metres. it took a certain type of sustained stamina but decent performers at that distance could be left trailing over a mile quite easily and vice versa
 
I think there is stamina and stamina

i did atheltics at a certain level long ago and the hardest race was the 400 metres. it took a certain type of sustained stamina but decent performers at that distance could be left trailing over a mile quite easily and vice versa

I'm no expert on this, but I understand this has to do with slow-twitch and fast-twitch muscles. At 100m and 200m, you need highly developed fast-twitch muscles which produce quick but energy-sapping bursts of energy. At 800m+, you need highly developed slow-twitch muscles which enable efficient, extended workouts. 400m is something of a sweet spot where you need quite a specific blend of the two.

Hopefully someone with more knowledge than me on the subject will now come along and either correct me, or otherwise explain how the same process applies to racehorses :)
 
At under age level I used to be able to run 400m at around 54 seconds. I could do 57-58 seconds without breaking sweat, fully recovered on pulling up. My best at 800m was 2 minutes and 8 seconds and left me vomitting on the side of the track.

I'm sure having fast twitch muscles was the main reason, but whopping great thunder thighs didn't help.
 
Unsurprisingly, James Willoughby was here years ago:

http://midas.picdar.co.uk/cgi-bin/RP?Match...6228&searchid=1

THE DERBY poses the question, so does the Oaks. So do thousands of races each year. When a horse tackles a longer distance, how do you know if it is going to stay?

First to definitions. "To stay" really means the capability of a horse to show its best form. The maximum distance at which a horse can perform this feat is therefore the limit of its stamina.
As form is subjective, so, by implication, is stamina. In fact, there is no single physical attribute of stamina. Rather, it comes about as a combination of skeletal qualities, temperament and, most importantly, muscle type.

A horse's muscles fall into two basic types - fast-twitch and slow-twitch. Fast-twitch muscles expand and contract quickly, providing a horse with the raw power required for sprinting, without the need for oxygen. Slow-twitch muscles, on the other hand, operate more steadily and efficiently, delivering to a horse the capability to sustain its movement as it takes in oxygen.

The proportion of these two mucle types in a horse largely determines what distance it is best suited to - that is, how far it stays. A horse like Sampower Star, for instance, could have as much as 90 per cent fast-twitch muscles in his quarters, enabling him to reach the high speed required to win a race like the Duke of York Stakes. Conversely, when Churlish Charm rallied to win the Yorkshire Cup, it was through the staying power delivered by the roughly 90 per cent of his muscles that are slow-twitch.

Muscles, of either type, deliver power to the horse by using energy. If a stayer like Churlish Charm was to run over sprint distances, his muscles could not work fast enough to deliver maximum energy, and he would be outpaced. And if Sampower Star tackled the Ascot Gold Cup, his muscles could not deliver energy at a sufficiently steady rate, and he would be outstayed. In both instances, maximum energy would not be delivered because the demands of the race distance were unsuitable.

If we could measure the energy output by an individual horse during each of a sequence of races over various distances, we could obtain some gauge of its stamina. The distance at which it is able to use most energy would be the distance to which it is best suited - and by extension the limit of its stamina. We would thus refine our definition of how far a horse stays, to say "the greatest distance at which its energy output is maximised".
 
And a bit more, from the other side of the equation:

http://midas.picdar.co.uk/cgi-bin/RP?Match...6228&searchid=1

Speed is largely a function of genetics, confirms Dr David Marlin, the head of the International Conference on Equine Exercise Physiology, and an independent consultant based in Newmarket. Marlin says: "Horses that are very fast over five furlongs are likely to be born that way. You have to say that probably 80 to 90 per cent has to be what you started with."

It is all down to muscle, Marlin explains. What the naked eye sees, it can trust; the powerful shoulders and bulky hindquarters of the typical sprinter are mostly muscle, indicating speed. But this is not just any muscle.

In fact, all thoroughbreds have the same number of muscle fibres. It is the type of fibre that determines how fast a horse will be. Muscle fibres come in two types: Type I, or slow-twitch fibres, and Type II, or fast-twitch fibres. Slow-twitch fibres are the ones that can perform for hours on end without fatigue as they convert oxygen, slowly, into energy.

Horses in general have a much higher percentage of fast-twitch than slow-twitch fibres in their make-up, and thoroughbreds have a greater percentage of fast-twitch fibres than many other breeds. Within the thoroughbred, however, there is not much variation in the proportion of Type I and Type II fibres: individual variation is only about five per cent, with the proportion of Type II, or fast-twitch, fibres ranging from 85 to 90 per cent, says Marlin.

What it all comes down to is the kind of fast-twitch fibres a runner has. Again, there are two types: Type IIa and Type IIb. The percentage of IIb fibres could be as low as 10-15 per cent or as high as 90-95 per cent in any given thoroughbred. Both are fast-twitch fibres, but Type IIa is an intermediate sort of fibre, capable of both power and endurance, the main muscle used by horses such as Authorized and Yeats to produce the speed and stamina required for a Derby or a Gold Cup.

Type IIb fibres are the impatient cousin of IIa. Strong on flash but short on stamina, they create explosive speed and strength, literally without taking a breath. The cells in type IIb fibres can turn stored sugar, or glycogen, into energy without using oxygen. When they do so they create the by-product lactic acid. This is the quickest way to create energy, but it has a serious drawback.

"When horses accelerate out of the starting gate, the slowest system to adapt is the one using oxygen," says Marlin. "You've got to get the oxygen a distance of about two metres from nostril into muscle.To get to maximum oxygen uptake takes 40-50sec. So by the time the horse crosses the line in a 5f race, he's just about got the full oxygen to the muscle.

"But lactic acid can go from nothing to maximum in 1-2sec. If you couldn't produce lactic acid, you wouldn't be able to go fast. But you can't go far - it's a feedback method to keep you from damaging yourself."

Hence the stamina limitations of most very fast sprinters, which is the same reason even the best miler cannot sustain his top turn of foot for more than 3f or so. Sprinters can improve their efficiency through training, though. "You can improve it by high-intensity exercise," explains Marlin. "You can either produce more lactic acid, or the muscle can learn to tolerate lactic acid better."

HUMAN runners use a system called 'tapering', reducing their daily exercise beginning six or seven days before the race. "Sprinters tend to have much higher levels of glycogen in their muscle," says Marlin. "If you do a pipe-opener two days before the race, you could deplete the glycogen and maybe not replenish it."

Muscle glycogen could drop as much as 30 to 40 per cent in some fibres, he adds, but the fibres should recover in 24 to 48 hours. Research suggests that tapering works in horses, with a study in New Zealand showing that standardbreds who were tapered into races ran faster than those who did not.

This may explain why sprinters perform well with very little work between races. Indeed, Walker, Miss Andretti's vet, believes that some sprinters may be overtrained.

"Miss Andretti had one serious gallop and one moderately serious gallop in three weeks. The emphasis is on keeping them fresh," says Walker. Prior to her well-beaten run in the Golden Jubilee Stakes on Saturday, he said that the back-to-back Royal Ascot schedule was not the norm. "Four days between races for sprinters is not usual in Australia at all. You do like to spread them out a little more."

As it panned out, the races were too close together for Miss Andretti and Magnus, with the rain-soaked ground not helping matters. But Takeover Target bounced right back with a thrilling head second to the valiant Soldier's Tale. There is no getting around it - the Australians have something special when it comes to getting the most from their muscle.
The way Walker sees it, it all comes down to the human approach. "The most important individual contributing factor, the attitude underlying the whole thing, is probably what sets the tone," he says.

While last year's Golden Jubilee and July Cup hero Les Arcs came to sprinting late, after a less fruitful career over longer distances including a disastrous attempt over hurdles, such a scenario would be unlikely in Australia, says Walker.

"The speed - we don't take it out of these horses. We probably look to tap into their ability at an earlier age. Speed horses in Australia have class - they're all considered to have class. In Australia, we expect the majority of horses to perform over one mile or less, and it's only when they don't perform over shorter trips that they become stayers.

"Genetics plays a huge part, training the next biggest, then environmental factors," he adds. "Precocity is not considered the poor cousin it is in England. The thinking is probably a bit of the mirror image here."
 
You may well be right Bar.

Looking at the second article, I think it's fascinating that there's such a huge variance in thoroughbred's Type II muscle fibres.

Imagine what a cheap, non-invasive muscle-fibre test could do for the sport?
 
Had a word with one of Alan King's staff at Newbury yesterday with regard to My Way De Solzen.

They still haven't found out what was wrong at Kempton, the horse appears to be very well and runs in two weeks time, not sure which race though.
 
King has been saying for some weeks now that MWDS goes for the National Spirit (yes, at Fontwell!) and he will see how he gets on there before deciding where he goes next.
 
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