Worst Priced Cheltenham Antepost Favourite?

Got to be Tatenen, I was impressed with him on his first two runs but they were early season events where he beat nothing of note and was put in his place by just a fair horse last time. I have no idea how he's still favourite, I don't even think he's the best chance Nicholls has in the race.
 
granger said:
Tatenen for me. FTP looked anything but vintage today
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Don't loose the faith old bean. I felt he was eased when he was unable to make up the start he gave them in the ground. Better ground will suit. Paddythep is the one to beat at Chelt on better ground.
 
Its very rare that a horse suddenly becomes a very good horse....that was my immeadiate impression of Follow The Plan at Leopardstown at Christmas when he won and it was confirmed today (along with Jayo). Tatenen is a desperate favourite....I think Knight horse is the safest bet, the two horses today have sound chances as well but it looks a race ripe for a big priced winner.
 
For me this race blew wide open when Free World and Calgary Bay got beat LTO. I'd be buying the SP of the winner on the spreads.
 
Galileo said:
Its very rare that a horse suddenly becomes a very good horse....that was my immeadiate impression of Follow The Plan at Leopardstown at Christmas when he won and it was confirmed today (along with Jayo). Tatenen is a desperate favourite....I think Knight horse is the safest bet, the two horses today have sound chances as well but it looks a race ripe for a big priced winner.
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Jayo is a fragile horse and not a betting prospect.

FTP has run in 5 chases. He has won three of them and was 2nd and third in the other two.He beat Tatanen giving 11lbs on decentish ground and being by accordion will improve on better ground. I think it's a bit early to be categoric about this horse.
 
LUKE said:
I think Denman is a bad bet at under 2/1 for a horse that will not see the track until the 7th of Feb.
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Interesting stat ~ Golden Miller made his seasonal debut on December 30th in the season he won his first Gold Cup. No horse since then has reappeared later and won the Gold Cup.
 
Sheikh said:
FTP has run in 5 chases. He has won three of them and was 2nd and third in the other two.He beat Tatanen giving 11lbs on decentish ground and being by accordion will improve on better ground. I think it's a bit early to be categoric about this horse.
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That makes perfect sense when you think about it
 
Very few indeed, if truth be told. It could be argued that keeping a horse fresh for such a gruelling race might be wise but there are so many big pots to be won for top class staying chasers, that most serious contenders over the years have run at least three times prior to March. I don't suggest that the stat is a reason why Denman can't win, but it's very interesting that there is no example in history of the feat being achieved before.
 
Worst value currently is Zaynar for the Triumph; my info following the race is that the trainer would like to go over further at Cheltenham, but I'm not sure if he had at that point spoken to the owners (of whom Victor Chandler is I think the leading partner). They may have ideas of their own! Anyway I've not been able to glean from betting patterns whether any decision has been made so make of it what you will; I've adjusted my bets accordingly.
 
I suspect with Zaynar that the decision to step him up to run in the Ballymores would be like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire. The ballymore looks a stronger race than the triumph at the moment. I also understand zaynar was very green at Ascot and will need to run again before the festival where the original plan was to run him just the twice. The triumph will certainly suit zaynar with the almost guaranteed fast pace and can see him coming up the hill like a train. Starluck is still to go over a track that isnt flat and looks all pace. The only real danger would be walkon and i still cant see any reason why a 7lb pull will make the difference with zaynar.
 
Wouldn't fancy backing Zaynar at the current price but having taken 20's pre-debut won I think he's a worthy favourite given what has happened since.

He has the beating of Walkon on the form book and outside of Ebadiyan, Starluck (flat track bully), Reve De Sivola and Lethal Weapon the race doesn't look overly strong. The strong pace of the Triumph will suite Zaynar down to the ground and his jumping will improve the faster they go.
 
LUKE said:
I think Denman is a bad bet at under 2/1 for a horse that will not see the track until the 7th of Feb.
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It worries me that he is a stuffy horse who needed 3 races to be fully fit last year. He was blowing hard even after the Aon.
 
granger said:
With the Powers meeting so early this season, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see some of our lot avoid Cheltenham for it
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Good point.Ftp struck me as the perfect type for Chelt...... we'll wait and see.Wouldn't the first time the lure of cheltenham became too tempting to resist if they change their minds.
 
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