Worst Priced Cheltenham Antepost Favourite?

granger said:
Ah Gearoid, don't be trying to ruin my big ante post gamble with logic
Click to expand...

:lol:

Looks like the Champion Hurdle is going to be the call. Similar profie to Hardy Eustace. I could see him running a big race. Aintree will be there for the taking.
 
Do you think he would get the three miles at Cheltenham? I just think his run against Whatuthink showed him up as not staying anything over 2m 5f.
 
Agree with that, Gearoid. Can't see him getting up the hill myself.

That said, I certainly don't think he's nailed on at Aintree either. His jumping and the prospect of quick ground would be a big concern both at Aintree and Punchestown for me.
 
all SP = 3-1 or less since 1999

Year Horse SP Result: won and lost Race Age Came

1999 CARDINAL HILL 11/4 Lost Supreme Novices' Hurdle 05 Fell
1999 ISTABRAQ 4/9 Won Champion Hurdle 07 1st
1999 BARTON 2/1 Won Ballymore novices hurdle 06 1st
1999 ALEXANDER BANQUET 11/4 Lost Ballymore Novices Hurdle 06 7th
1999 NICK DUNDEE 5/4 Lost Royal & SunAlliance Novice Chase 07 Fell
1999 MAJADOU 7/4 Won Challenge Cup 05 1st
1999 BILIVERDIN 11/4 Lost Champion Bumper 05 16th
1999 KATARINO 11/4 Won Triumph Hurdle 04 1st
1999 LE COUDRAY 2/1 Lost World Hurdle 05 2nd
1999 DEANO'S BEENO 2/1 Lost World Hurdle 07 9th
1999 FLORIDA PEARL 5/2 Lost Gold Cup 07 3rd
1999 DR LEUNT 11/4 Lost Challenge Cup Chase 05 8th

2000 YOULNEVERWALKALONE 5/4 Lost
2000 DECOUPAGE 7/4 Lost
2000 ISTABRAQ 8/15 Won Champion hurdle 08 1st
2000 MONSIGNOR 5/4 Won Ballymore Novices Hurdle 06 1st
2000 FLAGSHIP UBERALLES 11/10 Lost Queen Mother 06 3rd
2000 INCA 2/1 Lost Champion Bumper 05 2nd
2000 LADY REBECCA 5/2 Lost World Hurdle 06 8th
2000 SEE MORE BUSINESS 9/4 Lost Gold Cup 10 4th
2000 CASTLE SWEEP 7/4 Lost Challenge Cup Chase 09 6th

2002 LIKE-A-BUTTERFLY 7/4 Won Supreme Novices' Hurdle 08 1st
2002 SEEBALD 5/2 Lost Arkle 07 2nd
2002 ISTABRAQ 2/1 Lost Champion Hurdle 10 PU
2002 FLAGSHIP UBERALLES 7/4 Won Queen Mother 08 1ST
2002 LADY CRICKET 5/2 Lost Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 08 2nd
2002 RHINESTONE COWBOY 5/2 Lost Champion Hurdle 07 3rd
2002 BARACOUDA 13/8 Won World Hurdle 07 1st
2002 BANNOW BAY 2/1 Lost World Hurdle 07 2nd
2002 HORUS 11/4 Lost Christie's Foxhunter Chase 07 PU
2002 ROYAL AUCLAIR 2/1 Won Cathcart Challenge Cup Chase 05 1st
2002 POLAR RED 2/1 Lost Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle05 13th

2003 AZERTYUIOP 5/4 Won Arkle 06 1st
2003 RHINESTONE COWBOY 5/2 Lost Champion Hurdle 07 3rd
2003 PIZARRO 2/1 Lost Ballymore novices Hurdle 06 2nd
2003 KEEN LEADER 9/4 Lost Royal & SunAlliance Chase 07 5th
2003 MOSCOW FLYER 7/4 Won Queen mother 09 1st
2003 STORMEZ 7/4 Lost 4 Miler 06 2nd
2003 LIBERMAN 2/1 Won Champion Bumper 05 1st
2003 BARACOUDA 9/4 Won World Hurdle 08 1st
2003 LIMESTONE LAD 9/4 Lost World Hurdle 11 3rd
2003 BEST MATE 13/8 Won Gold Cup 08 1st
2003 KINGSCLIFF 11/4 Won1 Foxhunter Chase 06 1st
2003 LA LANDIERE 5/4 Won Challenge Cup Chase 08 1st

2004 THISTHATANDTOTHER 5/2 Lost Arkle 08 Fell
2004 ROOSTER BOOSTER 11/8 Lost Champion Hurdle 10 2nd
2004 INGLIS DREVER 7/4 Lost ballymore hurdle 05 2nd
2004 OUR VIC 11/8 Lost Royal & SunAlliance Chase 06 3rd
2004 AZERTYUIOP 15/8 Won Queen Mother 07 1st
2004 MOSCOW FLYER 5/6 Lost Queen Mother 10 Fell
2004 BARACOUDA 8/11 Lost World Hurdle 09 2nd
2004 BEST MATE 8/11 Won Gold Cup 09 1st
2004 IRIS ROYAL 11/4 Lost Cathcart Challenge Cup Chase 08 2nd
2004 LA LANDIERE 5/2 Lost Cathcart Challenge Cup Chase 09 6th

2005 MOSCOW FLYER 6/4 Won Queen mother 11 1st
2005 AZERTYUIOP 2/1 Lost Queen mother 08 3rd
2005 OUR VIC 7/4 Lost Ryanair 07 PU
2005 BARACOUDA 6/5 Lost World Hurdle 10 2nd
2005 BREWSTER 9/4 Lost Albert Novices 08 3rd
2006 SWEET WAKE 5/2 Lost Suprme novices 05 5th
2006 DENMAN 11/10 Lost Ballymore Hurdle 06 2nd
2006 KAUTO STAR 2/1 Lost Queen mother 06 Fell
2006 BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1/1 Won Albert hurdle 07 1st
2006 HARBOUR PILOT 11/4 Lost Foxhunters

2007 Amaretto Rose 2/1 Lost Supreme Novices 06 3rd
2007 Detroit City 6/4 Lost Champion Hurdle 05 6th
2007 Heads Onthe Ground 5/2 Won Cross Country 10 1st
2007 Aran Concerto 5/2 Lost Ballymore Novices 06 5th
2007 Denman 1/1 Won Royal Sun Alliance chase 07 1st
2007 Well Chief 1/1 Lost Queen Mother 08 Fell
2007 Monet’s Garden 7/4 Lost Ryanair 09 4th
2007 BJK 2/1 Lost World Hurdle 08 Fell
2007 Gungadu 2/1 Lost 4 miller 07 Fell
2007 Wichita Lineman 11/8 Won Albert Hurdle 06 1st
2007 Kauto Star 5/4 Won Gold Cup 07 1st
20007 Whyso Mayo 2/1 Lost Foxhunters 10 2nd
2007 Saintsaire 5/2 Lost Gran annual 08 6th

2008 Noland 7-4 Lost Arkle 07 3rd
2008 Sizing Europe 2-1 Lost Champion Hurdle 06 14th
2008 Wonderkid 5-2 Lost Cross Country 08 6th
2008 Master Minded 11-4 won Queen Mother 05 1st
2008 Franchoek 10-11 lost Truimph Hurdle 06 2nd
2008 Inglis Drever 11-8 won World Hurdle 09 1st
2008 Kauto star10-11 lost Gold cup 08 2nd
2008 Denman 9-4 won Gold Cup 08 1st
2008ASHKAZAR 15-8 Lost Fred winter 04 2nd
2008Don´t Push It 5-2 lost racing post plate 08 Fell
2008Voy Por Ustedes 5-2 lost queen mother 07 2nd


2009 Binocluar ???Champion Hurdle
2009 Voy Por Ustedes??? Ryanair
2009 Master Minded ???Champion Chase
2009 Kauto Star ???Gold Cup
2009 Whiteoak ???Mares Race
2009 Kasbah Bliss ???World Hurdle
2009 Diamond Harry ??? Ballymore Novices

Voy Por Ustedes and Master Minded are the only two of the 2009 ones i would touch.
 
SteveM said:
That may well be so. I've backed KB this year at 7/2 and 11/4 (also backed him past two seasons). While he hasn't got Inglis Drever to contend with this season, I do like Punchestowns a lot. Hopefully one or the other can win as I've got Punchestowns at 6s. I don't think the weekend told us any more about KB and am fairly surprised he has hardened so much as a result.

As they currently stand KB looks the one, but Punchestowns is screaming improvement to me from a high base.
Click to expand...

I think the main reason why he has shortened up so much for the race is people are finally looking at him rather than just Punchestowns and Big Bucks. Kasbah Bliss has the strongest hurdling form of them all, his flat form suggests he is still improving (as he should be at his age) and he is trained by a master of his trade.

I have long maintained he should be near the evens mark.
 
Taking firstpastthepost's data a step further.....

Nov Hdl's 14 losers, 6 winners, 30% win rate
Cond Hdl's 13 losers, 5 winners, 28% win rate
Nov Ch's 6 losers, 2 winners, 25% win rate
Cond Ch's 21 losers, 14 winners, 40% win rate

As a rough average, the average collective SP of these horses was 15/8 - meaning that they should have won 35% of races.

Trying to put some logic behind that, you could first of all argue that the information used to make a horse less than 3/1 for a conditions chase is much greater than that applied to the others (with the arguable exception of conditions hurdles) hence the greater success rate.

However, the thing that strikes me when looking at the conditions hurdles is that only a few of them appear to have been "bad" favourites. The majority had the form in the book to make them favourite, but were unable to reproduce that on the day. Binocular and Kasbah Bliss?
 
Galileo said:
I think the main reason why he has shortened up so much for the race is people are finally looking at him rather than just Punchestowns and Big Bucks. Kasbah Bliss has the strongest hurdling form of them all, his flat form suggests he is still improving (as he should be at his age) and he is trained by a master of his trade.

I have long maintained he should be near the evens mark.
Click to expand...


I expect you're right he'll be sent off very short. I wouldn't argue with evens although I won't be backing him again at that price. At the Festival I'm doubtful that anything is a true odds-on shot. I suppose they'll send Master Minded off at long odds on, but I won't be touching him at that price. I'll probably give the Champion Chase a miss unless backing without the favourite.
 
Last edited:
Galileo said:
I think the main reason why he has shortened up so much for the race is people are finally looking at him rather than just Punchestowns and Big Bucks. Kasbah Bliss has the strongest hurdling form of them all, his flat form suggests he is still improving (as he should be at his age) and he is trained by a master of his trade.

I have long maintained he should be near the evens mark.
Click to expand...

I can't buy this argument that Kasbah Bliss's age means he should still be improving, Gal - I really can't. The horse has had 20-odd starts over hurdles now, and his form last weekend is no better than he showed at Haydock and Cheltenham last year - and on a par with what Punchestowns achieved in the Long Walk (they are more or less identical performances lb-for-lb).

All KB has shown at Haydock is that he has retained a similar level of form as he was able to show last year. It wasn't an improved performance, and I personally think that both Punchestowns and Big Buck's are much more likely candidates for progression than the French horse.

I fail to see the relevance of Doumen being "a master of his trade", when the two logical opponents are trained by Messrs Henderson and Nicholls, and in any race around Cheltenham, I would want to be with Walsh or Geraghty every time, against Christophe Pieux.

Kasbah Bliss is clearly in the equation, but his price is all wrong now, and, for me, he rates a Lay at 11/8. At Even money, I would be going in even harder.
 
I'm not sure that Pieux is up to Cheltenham either - he hasn't exactly covered himself in glory so far on Doumen's recent raids. I agree with Grasshopper here.

I'm on Punchestowns at a decent price and I'm going to stick with that - NH has a better record at the Festival than any other trainer, he will have left plently to work on (a bit more than he wanted in fact after being snowed in!) - but I'll probably put all three into my PP
 
I've alraedy backed both Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns at 7/2 and 6/1 respectively. I slightly favour the former over the latter, but if I hadn't had a bet yet I would now either not have a bet at all or back Punchestowns at the available odds.

I've backed Kasbah both last year and the year before and have a great deal of faith in the horse, but he hasn't won it yet despite good efforts, unless he has improved he probably won't win it... perhaps he has though.
 
Last edited:
pieux rides very short in the stirrups not being much of a jockey myself so i dont know but does it make it more of less likely he will fall off if kb clips a fence or dosnt it make a difference??
 
prince regent said:
pieux rides very short in the stirrups not being much of a jockey myself so i dont know but does it make it more of less likely he will fall off if kb clips a fence or dosnt it make a difference??
Click to expand...

It did to Tony Mullins when he fell off Dawn Run and lost the ride in the Gold Cup.
 
I think it makes a big difference in some races - and it's my pet theory that AP will never win the Grand National til he lets another hole out LOL! I don't like seeing jocks ride too short at the Festival either esp in the chases. There again some jocks have better natural balance and some have more strength in the legs. Some who ride longer like Andrew Thronton are much better over fences than hurdles. It's hard to be categorical
 
I wouldn't worry too much about Pieux's riding style, they're taught to ride like that over in France. Personally would be more worried if he tried to change it a couple of weeks before the Festival.

Ruby, David Casey, P. Carberry etc. rides their own way out in France and the French ride their way over here, both have success :)
 
SteveM said:
I've alraedy backed both Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns at 7/2 and 6/1 respectively. I slightly favour the former over the latter, but if I hadn't had a bet yet I would now either not have a bet at all or back Punchestowns at the available odds.

I've backed Kasbah both last year and the year before and have a great deal of faith in the horse, but he hasn't won it yet despite good efforts, unless he has improved he probably won't win it... perhaps he has though.
Click to expand...

Is anybody worried about the dreaded "bounce" factor with Kasbah Bliss?? Haven't heard anyone mention it...Am still siding with Punchestowns;)
 
binocular for me.

and no, would not fear the bounce with kasbah one bit. not saying he will certainly win, but not many would be able to win gr.3 in france on the flat, so is class animal in the race and things like the bounce do not really come into it.
 
PRICEWISE2008 said:
Is anybody worried about the dreaded "bounce" factor with Kasbah Bliss?? Haven't heard anyone mention it...Am still siding with Punchestowns;)
Click to expand...

So-called bounce factor only appears relevant if a horse returns from a long lay-off and has a hard race (that it perhaps wins) that bottoms it next time out (usually after a quick reappearance).

KB won so within himself that he won't have taken much out of himself and has a good space of time to recover. You can worry about other things (not least the quality of the opposition) but as crazyhorse says the bounce factor won't be a factor.
 
I did not base his improvement solely down to age....I also highlighted his improved flat form (one of the leading stayers in France last season) as a sign that there is more to come from the horse.

How many horses win a Stayers Hurdle at 5 or 6 years of age? Not many at all...at 7 years of age he should be coming into his peak regardless of having 20 or 40 runs over hurdles.

I would take Doumen as a massive positive given the campaign the horse has got this year....clearly one race in mind. Big Bucks nor Punchestowns were not seriously considered Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle horses early in the season and were not campaigned as such. Kasbah Bliss on the other hand has been and is in great hands to do so....which is not to say Nicholls or Henderson are not more than capable of doing the same.

The French jockey might not be ideal, but Walsh will have a tricky time himself on getting the timing right on Big Bucks while Punchestowns to me is a horse that could disapppoint badly on at this stage of his career. Bred to be a chaser (as was the plan for him early in the season and Big Bucks for that matter) and will find his hurdling seriously tested.

Grasshopper said:
I can't buy this argument that Kasbah Bliss's age means he should still be improving, Gal - I really can't. The horse has had 20-odd starts over hurdles now, and his form last weekend is no better than he showed at Haydock and Cheltenham last year - and on a par with what Punchestowns achieved in the Long Walk (they are more or less identical performances lb-for-lb).

All KB has shown at Haydock is that he has retained a similar level of form as he was able to show last year. It wasn't an improved performance, and I personally think that both Punchestowns and Big Buck's are much more likely candidates for progression than the French horse.

I fail to see the relevance of Doumen being "a master of his trade", when the two logical opponents are trained by Messrs Henderson and Nicholls, and in any race around Cheltenham, I would want to be with Walsh or Geraghty every time, against Christophe Pieux.

Kasbah Bliss is clearly in the equation, but his price is all wrong now, and, for me, he rates a Lay at 11/8. At Even money, I would be going in even harder.
Click to expand...
 
Good points Gal. I only know a bit about PUNCHESTOWNS, and that the decision was made very early to take his career along as slowly as possible. He's very highly thought of at home. We haven't seen the best of him by a long chalk - in fact I think we have only seen hints. He may properly be a chaser but he's won over hurdles at the course, which counts with me - and NH emphasied he was not wound up for the Cleeve and he would not have liked the ground - and he was giving 8lbs to Big Buck's.

I backed Kasbah Bliss last year and was pretty disappointed but agreed, he is the right age this round, more so than the other market principals. He was only beaten a length last year too! But I hate backing a horse I lost on the previous year in the same race... illogical I know
 
Galileo said:
at 7 years of age he should be coming into his peak regardless of having 20 or 40 runs over hurdles.
Click to expand...

I can't have it, Gal. The horse has been on the go since he was 2yo, and has had almost forty career starts. I can't believe that he is suddenly going to 'come to his peak', simply by dint of his age.....it's not as if he was a weak or immature individual, who suddenly filled his frame over the summer.

For me, he seems typical of the type of French horse who shows his best form at an earlier than usual age.
 
Grasshopper said:
I can't have it, Gal. The horse has been on the go since he was 2yo, and has had almost forty career starts. I can't believe that he is suddenly going to 'come to his peak', simply by dint of his age.....it's not as if he was a weak or immature individual, who suddenly filled his frame over the summer.

For me, he seems typical of the type of French horse who shows his best form at an earlier than usual age.
Click to expand...

From Feb 2008 the horse has done nothing but improve....slaughtering Lough Derg at Haydock (reversing previous form), running second to Inglis Drever at Cheltenham, winning a Group 3 on the flat in Longchamp in a hack canter and then fourth in the Group 1 Cadran on Arc day beaten less than two length.

Forgive me for thinking there might be a chance that given his improvement in both sphere's last year and his age that there might be further improvement to come.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top